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File of contributions to the likelihood: %s
w#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total #num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++ -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total) Problem with resultfile: %s PowellPowell # Powell # iter -2*LL p%1d%1d #Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f #Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f #Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f -C6??h㈵>h㈵>>?Singular matrix in routine ludcmp#B ; Calculation of the hessian matrix. Wait... Calculation of the hessian matrix. Wait... Inverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait... Inverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait... #Hessian matrix# #Hessian matrix# %.3e .%d%d# %s.%s #%s #%s # %s #********** Variable V%d=%d ********** # Age Prev(%d) N(%d) NAge %d %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%% %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%% %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%% %d %.5f %.0f %.0f %d%d=%.0fProblem with prevalence resultfile: %s %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%% %d NaNq %.0f %.0fOthers in log...TotalSee log file for details...|=Bh㈵>Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d @AWarning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates. C?(@# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age # Age e%1d%1d e%1d. %d|%3.0f%9.4fProblem %d lower than %d C@A??# Health expectancies with standard errors e%1d%1d (SE)# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl) %1d%1d,%1d%1d %9.4f (%.4f) %.4fC@A??%-dComputing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' # Age cov=%-d# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in() p.%-d SE w%1d p%-d%-d # Routine varevsij

  • Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)


    • %s
    # Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j # (weighted average of eij where weights are the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)%3d %d %11.3e %11.3e %11.3e %11.3e %.0f set noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65 set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel "Age"; set ylabel "Force of mortality (year-1)"; plot "%s" u 1:($3) not w l 1 replot "%s" u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t "95%% interval" w l 2 replot "%s" u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2
    File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): %s varmuptjgr
    Probability is computed over estepm=%d months.

    set out "%s%s.png";replot; the age specific prevalence observed in the population i.e cross-sectionally in each health state (popbased=1) Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d @A??@`@# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences %1d-%1d %.5f (%.5f)?Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' #One-step probabilities and stand. devi in () #One-step probabilities and covariance matrix #One-step probabilities and correlation matrix p%1d-%1d (SE) p%1d-%1d

  • Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)

    • # Routine varprob

  • Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals

    • Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities

    file %s
    Ellipsoids of confidence centered on point (pij, pkl) are estimatedand drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences. They are expressed in year-1 in order to be less dependent of stepm.

    Contour plot corresponding to x'cov-1x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 standard deviations wide on each axis.
    Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.
    To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.
    ********** # V%d=%d
    ********** Variable **********
    %d %11.3e (%11.3e) %d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f %d (%.3f), # Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d set label "%d" at %11.3e,%11.3e center replot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) notvarpijgr set out "%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png";replot; set parametric;unset label set log y;set log x; set xlabel "p%1d%1d (year-1)";set ylabel "p%1d%1d (year-1)" set ter png small set size 0.65,0.65
    Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year-1 :%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png,

    Correlation at age %d (%.3f), set out "%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png" plot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f Others in log... %11.3e %d %d-%d %11.3e?(@@?p

    • Result files (first order: no variance)

      - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): %s
      pij - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: %s
      pl - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: %s
      e - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age: ei., eij (estepm=%2d months): %s
      • Graphs

        • ************ Results for covariates ************
        pe
        - Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d1.png

        - Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d2.png

        - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state : %s%d%d.png
        exp
        - Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies : %s%d%d.png

    • Result files (second order: variances)

      - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: %s
      prob - Variance of one-step probabilities: %s
      probcov - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: %s
      probcor - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: %s
      cve - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and initial health status (cov(eij,ekl)(estepm=%2d months): %s
      • stde - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (eij) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (ei.=ei1+ei2+...)(estepm=%2d months): %s
      v - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), eij are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences (i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): %s
      t - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e.j with their standard errors: %s
      vpl - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: %s
      • Graphs


        • - Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png

        - Total life expectancy by age and health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png
        cd "%s" p%d=%f " t"Period (stable) prevalence" w l 0,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) "%%lf %%lf (%%lf) %%*lf (%%*lf)" t"95%% CI" w l 1,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) "%%lf" t"" w l 1,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t"Observed prevalence " w l 2 set out "%s%d%d.png" #set out "v%s%d%d.png" set xlabel "Age" set ylabel "Probability" set ter png small set size 0.65,0.65 plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 "%%lf set out "%s%d.png" set ylabel "Years" set ter png small set size 0.65,0.65 plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 "%%lf" t"LE in state (%d)" w l ,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) "%%lf" t"" w l 0,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) "%%lfset ter png small set size 0.65,0.65 plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t "e%d1" w l ,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t "e%d%d" w l ,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t "e%d." w lset xlabel "Age" set ylabel "Probability" set ter png small set size 0.65,0.65 unset log y plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d+$%d)) t"prev(%d,%d)" w l,"%s" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d)) t"prev(%d,%d)" w l set title "Probability" set ter png small set size 0.65,0.65 set log y plot [%.f:%.f] exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*%d+p%d*%d*x)/(1+exp(p%d+p%d*x) t "p%d%d" %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x set ylabel "Quasi-incidence per year" " t"" w l 0" t"TLE" w l ,@AProblem with forecast resultfile: %s Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' # Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f #****** Routine prevforecast ** #****** V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ****** # Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age p%d%d p.%d # Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf %.3f%d %d %.f %.f @AA??@`@ P.%d # Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf r%d %lf %15.2f %3.f [Population]Problem with population file : %s @AC??@`@(@aProblem with file: %s # Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ... %1d%1d 0.# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation) # Covariance matrix# Covariance matrix %1d%1d%d Var(%s%1d%1d) Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)#%1d%1d%d(@

        • Result files

          Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):
          mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year

          p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]


          • Life table


            Age lx qx d(x,x+1) Lx Tx e
            %d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf
            @set out "graphmort.png" set xlabel "Age" set ylabel "Force of mortality (per year)" set ter png small set log y set size 0.65,0.65 plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d)) bcdc %s %s argv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, argv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s Log filename:%s Enter the parameter file name: pathimach=%s pathtot=%s path=%s optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s Local time (at start):%sLocal time (at start): %stitle=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d ftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s %lf Problem with optionfile %s Type q for exiting: %sProblem with logfile %s Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d Current directory %s! Enter the parameter file name: Pathr |%s| "val= |%s| pathr=%s %le %le %.5le#%s %d/%d%s.Problem with Output resultfile: %s You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix Problem writing new parameter file: %s Problem while opening datafile: %s Comment line %s Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d Error reading data around '%d' at line number %d %s for individual %d, '%s' Should be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong. Exiting. Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s' Should be a covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1). Exiting. Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s' Should be a value of the %d covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1. IMaCh does not build design variables, do it your self). Exiting. ageage*ageError. Non available option model=%s Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d Should be a weight. Exiting. Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s' Should be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d. Exiting. You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased. Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased. Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f Problem with file %s IMaCh Cov %s %s
            %s
            Title=%s
            Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s
            IMaCh %s %s
            %s
            Title=%s
            Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s

            • Parameter files

              - Parameter file: %s.%s
              - Copy of the parameter file: o%s
              - Log file of the run: %s
              - Gnuplot file name: %s
              - Date and time at start: %s

            Total number of observations=%d
            Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f
            Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf
            First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f %d %8.5fSecond Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6ftitle=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d model=%s %d%d %1d%1d %f # %s # %s set missing 'NaNq' %.5e# Covariance matrix # 121 Var(a12) # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12) # ... # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23) # Covariance matrix # 121 Var(a12) # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12) # ... # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23) Covariance matrix iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) %f [%f ; %f] agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d # agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood). agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d pop_based=%d prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' # Period (stable) prevalence #Age %d-%d ****** %.5fComputing pij: result on file '%s' #****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x #****** # Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=%d %3.f %3.fComputing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' # Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state # Age ( e.. (std) e.%d (std) %4.0f %7.3f (%7.3f)Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d See log file on %s Local time at start %s Local time at end %s Local time at start %s Local time at end %sTotal time used %s Total time was %d Sec.
            Local time at start %s
            Local time at end %s
            Before Current directory %s! Can't move to directory %s! "%sgnuplot.exe"Error gnuplot program not found: %s GNUPLOTBINError gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set. %s %sStarting graphs with: %s Problem with gnuplot Wait... Type e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: Starting browser with: %sProblem with variance resultfile: %s Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s End of ImachEnd of Imach Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s Problem with total LE resultfile: %s Problem with Pij resultfile: %s Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s Age lx qx dx Lx Tx e(x)%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s' Should be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting. Problem with %s Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s' Should be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .). 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