Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.34 and 1.208

version 1.34, 2002/03/13 17:19:16 version 1.208, 2015/11/17 14:31:57
Line 1 Line 1
 /* $Id$  /* $Id$
    Interpolated Markov Chain    $State$
     $Log$
   Short summary of the programme:    Revision 1.208  2015/11/17 14:31:57  brouard
      Summary: temporary
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from  
   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a    Revision 1.207  2015/10/27 17:36:57  brouard
   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are    *** empty log message ***
   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the  
   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a    Revision 1.206  2015/10/24 07:14:11  brouard
   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change    *** empty log message ***
   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are  
   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a    Revision 1.205  2015/10/23 15:50:53  brouard
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the    Summary: 0.98r3 some clarification for graphs on likelihood contributions
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The  
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the    Revision 1.204  2015/10/01 16:20:26  brouard
   probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave    Summary: Some new graphs of contribution to likelihood
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore  
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where    Revision 1.203  2015/09/30 17:45:14  brouard
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more    Summary: looking at better estimation of the hessian
   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program  
   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites    Also a better criteria for convergence to the period prevalence And
   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the    therefore adding the number of years needed to converge. (The
   convergence.    prevalence in any alive state shold sum to one
   
   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple    Revision 1.202  2015/09/22 19:45:16  brouard
   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not    Summary: Adding some overall graph on contribution to likelihood. Might change
   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an  
   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into    Revision 1.201  2015/09/15 17:34:58  brouard
   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.      Summary: 0.98r0
   
   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h    - Some new graphs like suvival functions
   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be    - Some bugs fixed like model=1+age+V2.
   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate  
   states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,    Revision 1.200  2015/09/09 16:53:55  brouard
   semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx    Summary: Big bug thanks to Flavia
   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices  
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply    Even model=1+age+V2. did not work anymore
   hPijx.  
     Revision 1.199  2015/09/07 14:09:23  brouard
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    Summary: 0.98q6 changing default small png format for graph to vectorized svg.
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.  
      Revision 1.198  2015/09/03 07:14:39  brouard
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).    Summary: 0.98q5 Flavia
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.  
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    Revision 1.197  2015/09/01 18:24:39  brouard
   from the European Union.    *** empty log message ***
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and  
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    Revision 1.196  2015/08/18 23:17:52  brouard
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .    Summary: 0.98q5
   **********************************************************************/  
      Revision 1.195  2015/08/18 16:28:39  brouard
 #include <math.h>    Summary: Adding a hack for testing purpose
 #include <stdio.h>  
 #include <stdlib.h>    After reading the title, ftol and model lines, if the comment line has
 #include <unistd.h>    a q, starting with #q, the answer at the end of the run is quit. It
     permits to run test files in batch with ctest. The former workaround was
 #define MAXLINE 256    $ echo q | imach foo.imach
 #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"  
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80    Revision 1.194  2015/08/18 13:32:00  brouard
 /*#define DEBUG*/    Summary:  Adding error when the covariance matrix doesn't contain the exact number of lines required by the model line.
 #define windows  
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    Revision 1.193  2015/08/04 07:17:42  brouard
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    Summary: 0.98q4
   
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    Revision 1.192  2015/07/16 16:49:02  brouard
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    Summary: Fixing some outputs
   
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    Revision 1.191  2015/07/14 10:00:33  brouard
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */    Summary: Some fixes
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */  
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    Revision 1.190  2015/05/05 08:51:13  brouard
 #define MAXN 20000    Summary: Adding digits in output parameters (7 digits instead of 6)
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */  
 #define AGESUP 130    Fix 1+age+.
 #define AGEBASE 40  
     Revision 1.189  2015/04/30 14:45:16  brouard
     Summary: 0.98q2
 int erreur; /* Error number */  
 int nvar;    Revision 1.188  2015/04/30 08:27:53  brouard
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;    *** empty log message ***
 int npar=NPARMAX;  
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */    Revision 1.187  2015/04/29 09:11:15  brouard
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */    *** empty log message ***
 int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */  
 int popbased=0;    Revision 1.186  2015/04/23 12:01:52  brouard
     Summary: V1*age is working now, version 0.98q1
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */  
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */    Some codes had been disabled in order to simplify and Vn*age was
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */    working in the optimization phase, ie, giving correct MLE parameters,
 int mle, weightopt;    but, as usual, outputs were not correct and program core dumped.
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */  
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    Revision 1.185  2015/03/11 13:26:42  brouard
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */    Summary: Inclusion of compile and links command line for Intel Compiler
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */  
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */    Revision 1.184  2015/03/11 11:52:39  brouard
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;    Summary: Back from Windows 8. Intel Compiler
 FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop;  
 FILE *ficreseij;    Revision 1.183  2015/03/10 20:34:32  brouard
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    Summary: 0.98q0, trying with directest, mnbrak fixed
  FILE  *ficresvij;  
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    We use directest instead of original Powell test; probably no
  FILE  *ficresvpl;    incidence on the results, but better justifications;
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    We fixed Numerical Recipes mnbrak routine which was wrong and gave
     wrong results.
 #define NR_END 1  
 #define FREE_ARG char*    Revision 1.182  2015/02/12 08:19:57  brouard
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    Summary: Trying to keep directest which seems simpler and more general
     Author: Nicolas Brouard
 #define NRANSI  
 #define ITMAX 200    Revision 1.181  2015/02/11 23:22:24  brouard
     Summary: Comments on Powell added
 #define TOL 2.0e-4  
     Author:
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660  
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10    Revision 1.180  2015/02/11 17:33:45  brouard
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    Summary: Finishing move from main to function (hpijx and prevalence_limit)
   
 #define GOLD 1.618034    Revision 1.179  2015/01/04 09:57:06  brouard
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    Summary: back to OS/X
 #define TINY 1.0e-20  
     Revision 1.178  2015/01/04 09:35:48  brouard
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    *** empty log message ***
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))  
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    Revision 1.177  2015/01/03 18:40:56  brouard
      Summary: Still testing ilc32 on OSX
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))  
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)    Revision 1.176  2015/01/03 16:45:04  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
 static double sqrarg;  
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    Revision 1.175  2015/01/03 16:33:42  brouard
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    *** empty log message ***
   
 int imx;    Revision 1.174  2015/01/03 16:15:49  brouard
 int stepm;    Summary: Still in cross-compilation
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/  
     Revision 1.173  2015/01/03 12:06:26  brouard
 int m,nb;    Summary: trying to detect cross-compilation
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;  
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    Revision 1.172  2014/12/27 12:07:47  brouard
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    Summary: Back from Visual Studio and Intel, options for compiling for Windows XP
 double dateintmean=0;  
     Revision 1.171  2014/12/23 13:26:59  brouard
 double *weight;    Summary: Back from Visual C
 int **s; /* Status */  
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    Still problem with utsname.h on Windows
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;  
     Revision 1.170  2014/12/23 11:17:12  brouard
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */    Summary: Cleaning some \%% back to %%
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */  
     The escape was mandatory for a specific compiler (which one?), but too many warnings.
 /**************** split *************************/  
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )    Revision 1.169  2014/12/22 23:08:31  brouard
 {    Summary: 0.98p
    char *s;                             /* pointer */  
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */    Outputs some informations on compiler used, OS etc. Testing on different platforms.
   
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */    Revision 1.168  2014/12/22 15:17:42  brouard
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    Summary: update
 #ifdef windows  
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */    Revision 1.167  2014/12/22 13:50:56  brouard
 #else    Summary: Testing uname and compiler version and if compiled 32 or 64
    s = strrchr( path, '/' );            /* find last / */  
 #endif    Testing on Linux 64
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */  
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */    Revision 1.166  2014/12/22 11:40:47  brouard
       extern char       *getwd( );    *** empty log message ***
   
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {    Revision 1.165  2014/12/16 11:20:36  brouard
 #else    Summary: After compiling on Visual C
       extern char       *getcwd( );  
     * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {  
 #endif    Revision 1.164  2014/12/16 10:52:11  brouard
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );    Summary: Merging with Visual C after suppressing some warnings for unused variables. Also fixing Saito's bug 0.98Xn
       }  
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */  
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */    Revision 1.163  2014/12/16 10:30:11  brouard
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );  
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */    Revision 1.162  2014/09/25 11:43:39  brouard
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */    Summary: temporary backup 0.99!
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */  
    }    Revision 1.1  2014/09/16 11:06:58  brouard
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */    Summary: With some code (wrong) for nlopt
 #ifdef windows  
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    Author:
 #else  
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    Revision 1.161  2014/09/15 20:41:41  brouard
 #endif    Summary: Problem with macro SQR on Intel compiler
    s = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */  
    s++;    Revision 1.160  2014/09/02 09:24:05  brouard
    strcpy(ext,s);                       /* save extension */    *** empty log message ***
    l1= strlen( name);  
    l2= strlen( s)+1;    Revision 1.159  2014/09/01 10:34:10  brouard
    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);    Summary: WIN32
    finame[l1-l2]= 0;    Author: Brouard
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */  
 }    Revision 1.158  2014/08/27 17:11:51  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
   
 /******************************************/    Revision 1.157  2014/08/27 16:26:55  brouard
     Summary: Preparing windows Visual studio version
 void replace(char *s, char*t)    Author: Brouard
 {  
   int i;    In order to compile on Visual studio, time.h is now correct and time_t
   int lg=20;    and tm struct should be used. difftime should be used but sometimes I
   i=0;    just make the differences in raw time format (time(&now).
   lg=strlen(t);    Trying to suppress #ifdef LINUX
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    Add xdg-open for __linux in order to open default browser.
     (s[i] = t[i]);  
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';    Revision 1.156  2014/08/25 20:10:10  brouard
   }    *** empty log message ***
 }  
     Revision 1.155  2014/08/25 18:32:34  brouard
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)    Summary: New compile, minor changes
 {    Author: Brouard
   int i,j=0;  
   int lg=20;    Revision 1.154  2014/06/20 17:32:08  brouard
   i=0;    Summary: Outputs now all graphs of convergence to period prevalence
   lg=strlen(s);  
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    Revision 1.153  2014/06/20 16:45:46  brouard
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;    Summary: If 3 live state, convergence to period prevalence on same graph
   }    Author: Brouard
   return j;  
 }    Revision 1.152  2014/06/18 17:54:09  brouard
     Summary: open browser, use gnuplot on same dir than imach if not found in the path
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)  
 {    Revision 1.151  2014/06/18 16:43:30  brouard
   int i,lg,j,p=0;    *** empty log message ***
   i=0;  
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {    Revision 1.150  2014/06/18 16:42:35  brouard
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;    Summary: If gnuplot is not in the path try on same directory than imach binary (OSX)
   }    Author: brouard
   
   lg=strlen(t);    Revision 1.149  2014/06/18 15:51:14  brouard
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {    Summary: Some fixes in parameter files errors
     (u[j] = t[j]);    Author: Nicolas Brouard
   }  
      u[p]='\0';    Revision 1.148  2014/06/17 17:38:48  brouard
     Summary: Nothing new
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {    Author: Brouard
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);  
   }    Just a new packaging for OS/X version 0.98nS
 }  
     Revision 1.147  2014/06/16 10:33:11  brouard
 /********************** nrerror ********************/    *** empty log message ***
   
 void nrerror(char error_text[])    Revision 1.146  2014/06/16 10:20:28  brouard
 {    Summary: Merge
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");    Author: Brouard
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);  
   exit(1);    Merge, before building revised version.
 }  
 /*********************** vector *******************/    Revision 1.145  2014/06/10 21:23:15  brouard
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)    Summary: Debugging with valgrind
 {    Author: Nicolas Brouard
   double *v;  
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    Lot of changes in order to output the results with some covariates
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");    After the Edimburgh REVES conference 2014, it seems mandatory to
   return v-nl+NR_END;    improve the code.
 }    No more memory valgrind error but a lot has to be done in order to
     continue the work of splitting the code into subroutines.
 /************************ free vector ******************/    Also, decodemodel has been improved. Tricode is still not
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)    optimal. nbcode should be improved. Documentation has been added in
 {    the source code.
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  
 }    Revision 1.143  2014/01/26 09:45:38  brouard
     Summary: Version 0.98nR (to be improved, but gives same optimization results as 0.98k. Nice, promising
 /************************ivector *******************************/  
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
 {    (Module): Version 0.98nR Running ok, but output format still only works for three covariates.
   int *v;  
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    Revision 1.142  2014/01/26 03:57:36  brouard
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");    Summary: gnuplot changed plot w l 1 has to be changed to plot w l lt 2
   return v-nl+NR_END;  
 }    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
   
 /******************free ivector **************************/    Revision 1.141  2014/01/26 02:42:01  brouard
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    Revision 1.140  2011/09/02 10:37:54  brouard
 }    Summary: times.h is ok with mingw32 now.
   
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/    Revision 1.139  2010/06/14 07:50:17  brouard
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    After the theft of my laptop, I probably lost some lines of codes which were not uploaded to the CVS tree.
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */    I remember having already fixed agemin agemax which are pointers now but not cvs saved.
 {  
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;    Revision 1.138  2010/04/30 18:19:40  brouard
   int **m;    *** empty log message ***
    
   /* allocate pointers to rows */    Revision 1.137  2010/04/29 18:11:38  brouard
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));    (Module): Checking covariates for more complex models
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    than V1+V2. A lot of change to be done. Unstable.
   m += NR_END;  
   m -= nrl;    Revision 1.136  2010/04/26 20:30:53  brouard
      (Module): merging some libgsl code. Fixing computation
      of likelione (using inter/intrapolation if mle = 0) in order to
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */    get same likelihood as if mle=1.
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    Some cleaning of code and comments added.
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Revision 1.135  2009/10/29 15:33:14  brouard
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
    
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    Revision 1.134  2009/10/29 13:18:53  brouard
      (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */  
   return m;    Revision 1.133  2009/07/06 10:21:25  brouard
 }    just nforces
   
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/    Revision 1.132  2009/07/06 08:22:05  brouard
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)    Many tings
       int **m;  
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;    Revision 1.131  2009/06/20 16:22:47  brouard
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */    Some dimensions resccaled
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    Revision 1.130  2009/05/26 06:44:34  brouard
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));    (Module): Max Covariate is now set to 20 instead of 8. A
 }    lot of cleaning with variables initialized to 0. Trying to make
     V2+V3*age+V1+V4 strb=V3*age+V1+V4 working better.
 /******************* matrix *******************************/  
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    Revision 1.129  2007/08/31 13:49:27  lievre
 {    Modification of the way of exiting when the covariate is not binary in order to see on the window the error message before exiting
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;  
   double **m;    Revision 1.128  2006/06/30 13:02:05  brouard
     (Module): Clarifications on computing e.j
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    Revision 1.127  2006/04/28 18:11:50  brouard
   m += NR_END;    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
   m -= nrl;    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
     loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    (Module): In order to speed up (in case of numerous covariates) we
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");    compute health expectancies (without variances) in a first step
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    and then all the health expectancies with variances or standard
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    deviation (needs data from the Hessian matrices) which slows the
     computation.
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    In the future we should be able to stop the program is only health
   return m;    expectancies and graph are needed without standard deviations.
 }  
     Revision 1.126  2006/04/28 17:23:28  brouard
 /*************************free matrix ************************/    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
 {    loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    Version 0.98h
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  
 }    Revision 1.125  2006/04/04 15:20:31  lievre
     Errors in calculation of health expectancies. Age was not initialized.
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/    Forecasting file added.
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)  
 {    Revision 1.124  2006/03/22 17:13:53  lievre
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;    Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma).
   double ***m;    The log-likelihood is printed in the log file
   
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    Revision 1.123  2006/03/20 10:52:43  brouard
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    * imach.c (Module): <title> changed, corresponds to .htm file
   m += NR_END;    name. <head> headers where missing.
   m -= nrl;  
     * imach.c (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");    otherwise the weight is truncated).
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    1.
     Version 0.98g
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  
     Revision 1.122  2006/03/20 09:45:41  brouard
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;    otherwise the weight is truncated).
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    1.
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;    Version 0.98g
    
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {    Revision 1.121  2006/03/16 17:45:01  lievre
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;    * imach.c (Module): Comments concerning covariates added
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;    * imach.c (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
   }    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
   return m;    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
 }  
     Revision 1.120  2006/03/16 15:10:38  lievre
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/    (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
 {    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));  
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    Revision 1.119  2006/03/15 17:42:26  brouard
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));    (Module): Bug if status = -2, the loglikelihood was
 }    computed as likelihood omitting the logarithm. Version O.98e
   
 /***************** f1dim *************************/    Revision 1.118  2006/03/14 18:20:07  brouard
 extern int ncom;    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;    table of variances if popbased=1 .
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
      (Module): Function pstamp added
 double f1dim(double x)    (Module): Version 0.98d
 {  
   int j;    Revision 1.117  2006/03/14 17:16:22  brouard
   double f;    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
   double *xt;    table of variances if popbased=1 .
      (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
   xt=vector(1,ncom);    (Module): Function pstamp added
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];    (Module): Version 0.98d
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);  
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);    Revision 1.116  2006/03/06 10:29:27  brouard
   return f;    (Module): Variance-covariance wrong links and
 }    varian-covariance of ej. is needed (Saito).
   
 /*****************brent *************************/    Revision 1.115  2006/02/27 12:17:45  brouard
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)    (Module): One freematrix added in mlikeli! 0.98c
 {  
   int iter;    Revision 1.114  2006/02/26 12:57:58  brouard
   double a,b,d,etemp;    (Module): Some improvements in processing parameter
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;    filename with strsep.
   double ftemp;  
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;    Revision 1.113  2006/02/24 14:20:24  brouard
   double e=0.0;    (Module): Memory leaks checks with valgrind and:
      datafile was not closed, some imatrix were not freed and on matrix
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);    allocation too.
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);  
   x=w=v=bx;    Revision 1.112  2006/01/30 09:55:26  brouard
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);    (Module): Back to gnuplot.exe instead of wgnuplot.exe
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {  
     xm=0.5*(a+b);    Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/    (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);    can be a simple dot '.'.
 #ifdef DEBUG  
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);    Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
 #endif  
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){    Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
       *xmin=x;    (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
       return fx;  
     }    Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
     ftemp=fu;    Gnuplot problem appeared...
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {    To be fixed
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);  
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);    Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;    Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
       q=2.0*(q-r);  
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;    Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
       q=fabs(q);    Some cleaning and links added in html output
       etemp=e;  
       e=d;    Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))    *** empty log message ***
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  
       else {    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
         d=p/q;    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
         u=x+d;    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)    that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);    (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
       }    contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
     } else {    health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
     }  
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
     fu=(*f)(u);    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
     if (fu <= fx) {  
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;    Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)  
         } else {    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;    Fix on curr_time
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {  
             v=w;    Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
             w=u;    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
             fv=fw;  
             fw=fu;    Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {    *** empty log message ***
             v=u;  
             fv=fu;    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
           }    New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
         }    directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
   }    state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");    This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
   *xmin=x;    other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
   return fx;    cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
 }    from other sources like vital statistic data.
   
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/    The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
   
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,    Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
             double (*func)(double))    former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
 {  
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;    The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
   double fu;    the slope with 95% confident intervals.
    
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);    Current limitations:
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);    A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
   if (*fb > *fa) {    model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)    B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)  
       }    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);    suppressed.
   while (*fb > *fc) {  
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));  
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {    * imach.c (Repository):
       fu=(*func)(u);    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
       fu=(*func)(u);  
       if (fu < *fc) {    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))    Just cleaning
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))  
           }    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
       u=ulim;    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
       fu=(*func)(u);    (Module): Version 0.96b
     } else {  
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
       fu=(*func)(u);    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
     }    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)  
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
       }    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
 }    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
     helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
 /*************** linmin ************************/    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
     concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
 int ncom;  
 double *pcom,*xicom;    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
      mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))    of the covariance matrix to be input.
 {  
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   double f1dim(double x);    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,    of the covariance matrix to be input.
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));  
   int j;    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
   double fx,fb,fa;  
      Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
   ncom=n;    Version 0.96
   pcom=vector(1,n);  
   xicom=vector(1,n);    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
   nrfunc=func;    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    routine fileappend.
     pcom[j]=p[j];  
     xicom[j]=xi[j];    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
   }    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
   ax=0.0;    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
   xx=1.0;    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
 #ifdef DEBUG    interview.
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
 #endif    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
     xi[j] *= xmin;    truncation)
     p[j] += xi[j];    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
   }  
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
 }    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
     many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
 /*************** powell ************************/    parcimony.
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
             double (*func)(double []))  
 {    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,    *** empty log message ***
               double (*func)(double []));  
   int i,ibig,j;    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
   double fp,fptt;  
   double *xits;  */
   pt=vector(1,n);  /*
   ptt=vector(1,n);     Interpolated Markov Chain
   xit=vector(1,n);  
   xits=vector(1,n);    Short summary of the programme:
   *fret=(*func)(p);    
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
     fp=(*fret);    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
     ibig=0;    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
     del=0.0;    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
     printf("\n");    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
       fptt=(*fret);    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
 #ifdef DEBUG    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
 #endif    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));    convergence.
         ibig=i;  
       }    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
 #ifdef DEBUG    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);  
       }    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
       printf("\n");    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
 #endif    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
     }    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
 #ifdef DEBUG    hPijx.
       int k[2],l;  
       k[0]=1;    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
       k[1]=-1;    of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence. 
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));    
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
       printf("\n");    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {    from the European Union.
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
         }  
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
       }    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
 #endif    
     **********************************************************************/
   /*
       free_vector(xit,1,n);    main
       free_vector(xits,1,n);    read parameterfile
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);    read datafile
       free_vector(pt,1,n);    concatwav
       return;    freqsummary
     }    if (mle >= 1)
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");      mlikeli
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    print results files
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];    if mle==1 
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];       computes hessian
       pt[j]=p[j];    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
     }        begin-prev-date,...
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);    open gnuplot file
     if (fptt < fp) {    open html file
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);    period (stable) prevalence      | pl_nom    1-1 2-2 etc by covariate
       if (t < 0.0) {     for age prevalim()             | #****** V1=0  V2=1  V3=1  V4=0 ******
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);                                    | 65 1 0 2 1 3 1 4 0  0.96326 0.03674
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {      freexexit2 possible for memory heap.
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];  
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];    h Pij x                         | pij_nom  ficrestpij
         }     # Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j= 1-1 1-2     1-3     2-1     2-2     2-3
 #ifdef DEBUG         1  85   85    1.00000             0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);         1  85   86    0.68299             0.22291 0.09410 0.71093 0.00000 0.28907
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);         1  65   99    0.00364             0.00322 0.99314 0.00350 0.00310 0.99340
         printf("\n");         1  65  100    0.00214             0.00204 0.99581 0.00206 0.00196 0.99597
 #endif    variance of p one-step probabilities varprob  | prob_nom   ficresprob #One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()
       }     Standard deviation of one-step probabilities | probcor_nom   ficresprobcor #One-step probabilities and correlation matrix
     }     Matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities |  probcov_nom ficresprobcov #One-step probabilities and covariance matrix
   }  
 }    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
     health expectancies
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/    Variance-covariance of DFLE
     prevalence()
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)     movingaverage()
 {    varevsij() 
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */    total life expectancies
     Variance of period (stable) prevalence
   int i, ii,j,k;   end
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;  */
   double **matprod2();  
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();  /* #define DEBUG */
   double **newm;  /* #define DEBUGBRENT */
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */  /* #define DEBUGLINMIN */
   /* #define DEBUGHESS */
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)  #define DEBUGHESSIJ
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  /* #define LINMINORIGINAL  /\* Don't use loop on scale in linmin (accepting nan)*\/ */
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  #define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */
     }  #define POWELLF1F3 /* Skip test */
   /* #define POWELLORIGINAL /\* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test *\/ */
    cov[1]=1.;  /* #define MNBRAKORIGINAL /\* Don't use mnbrak fix *\/ */
    
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  #include <math.h>
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){  #include <stdio.h>
     newm=savm;  #include <stdlib.h>
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */  #include <string.h>
      cov[2]=agefin;  
    #ifdef _WIN32
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {  #include <io.h>
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  #include <windows.h>
         /*printf("ij=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf\n",ij, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k]);*/  #include <tchar.h>
       }  #else
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)  #include <unistd.h>
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  #endif
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  #include <limits.h>
   #include <sys/types.h>
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/  
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/  #if defined(__GNUC__)
   #include <sys/utsname.h> /* Doesn't work on Windows */
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);  #endif
   
     savm=oldm;  #include <sys/stat.h>
     oldm=newm;  #include <errno.h>
     maxmax=0.;  /* extern int errno; */
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){  
       min=1.;  /* #ifdef LINUX */
       max=0.;  /* #include <time.h> */
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {  /* #include "timeval.h" */
         sumnew=0;  /* #else */
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];  /* #include <sys/time.h> */
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);  /* #endif */
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);  
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);  #include <time.h>
       }  
       maxmin=max-min;  #ifdef GSL
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);  #include <gsl/gsl_errno.h>
     }  #include <gsl/gsl_multimin.h>
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){  #endif
       return prlim;  
     }  
   }  #ifdef NLOPT
 }  #include <nlopt.h>
   typedef struct {
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/    double (* function)(double [] );
   } myfunc_data ;
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )  #endif
 {  
   double s1, s2;  /* #include <libintl.h> */
   /*double t34;*/  /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;  
   #define MAXLINE 1024 /* Was 256. Overflow with 312 with 2 states and 4 covariates. Should be ok */
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
       }  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
       ps[i][j]=s2;  
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  #define MAXPARM 128 /**< Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
     }  #define NPARMAX 64 /**< (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  #define NINTERVMAX 8
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of live states (for func) */
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
       }  #define NCOVMAX 20 /**< Maximum number of covariates, including generated covariates V1*V2 */
       ps[i][j]=s2;  #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
     }  #define MAXN 20000
   }  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/  #define AGESUP 130
   #define AGEBASE 40
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  #define AGEOVERFLOW 1.e20
      s1=0;  #define AGEGOMP 10 /**< Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  #ifdef _WIN32
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);  #else
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  #endif
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */  
   } /* end i */  /* $Id$ */
   /* $State$ */
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  #include "version.h"
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  char version[]=__IMACH_VERSION__;
       ps[ii][jj]=0;  char copyright[]="October 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
       ps[ii][ii]=1;  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
     }  char strstart[80];
   }  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
   int erreur=0, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
   int nagesqr=0, nforce=0; /* nagesqr=1 if model is including age*age, number of forces */
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  /* Number of covariates model=V2+V1+ V3*age+V2*V4 */
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  int cptcovn=0; /**< cptcovn number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age and age*product) */
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);  int cptcovt=0; /**< cptcovt number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age) */
    }  int cptcovs=0; /**< cptcovs number of simple covariates V2+V1 =2 */
     printf("\n ");  int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariates with age: V3*age only =1 */
     }  int cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age */   
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/  int cptcoveff=0; /* Total number of covariates to vary for printing results */
 /*  int cptcov=0; /* Working variable */
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);  int npar=NPARMAX;
   goto end;*/  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
     return ps;  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
 }  int ncovmodel=0, ncovcol=0;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
   int popbased=0;
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/  
   int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)  int maxwav=0; /* Maxim number of waves */
 {  int jmin=0, jmax=0; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times  int ijmin=0, ijmax=0; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */ 
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */  int gipmx=0, gsw=0; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns  int mle=1, weightopt=0;
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
   long i, j, k;  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)  int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)  int countcallfunc=0;  /* Count the number of calls to func */
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
   double **matprod2(); /* test */
   return out;  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
 }  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
   /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */
   FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
   int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
 {  long ipmx=0; /* Number of contributions */
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
      duration (i.e. until  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step  FILE *ficresilk;
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
      included manually here.  FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
   FILE *ficreseij;
      */  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
   FILE *ficresstdeij;
   int i, j, d, h, k;  char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];  FILE *ficrescveij;
   double **newm;  char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
   FILE  *ficresvij;
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)  FILE  *ficresvpl;
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  char title[MAXLINE];
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
     }  char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){  int  outcmd=0;
       newm=savm;  
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
       cov[1]=1.;  char fileresu[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* fileres without r in front */
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
   
   /* struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time; */
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/  /* struct timezone tzp; */
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/  /* extern int gettimeofday(); */
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  struct tm tml, *gmtime(), *localtime();
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  
       savm=oldm;  extern time_t time();
       oldm=newm;  
     }  struct tm start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  time_t  rstart_time, rend_time, rcurr_time, rlast_time, rforecast_time; /* raw time */
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {  struct tm tm;
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];  
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
          */  
       }  char *endptr;
   } /* end h */  long lval;
   return po;  double dval;
 }  
   #define NR_END 1
   #define FREE_ARG char*
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
 double func( double *x)  
 {  #define NRANSI 
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;  #define ITMAX 200 
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];  
   double **out;  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */  
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */  #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
   long ipmx;  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
   /*extern weight */  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */  
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/  #define GOLD 1.618034 
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)  #define GLIMIT 100.0 
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
   */  
   cov[1]=1.;  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
   #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;  #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){    
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){  #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)  /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/myutils_8h-source.html */
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  #define mytinydouble 1.0e-16
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){  /* #define DEQUAL(a,b) (fabs((a)-(b))<mytinydouble) */
         newm=savm;  /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/mynrutils_8h-source.html */
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;  /* static double dsqrarg; */
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {  /* #define DSQR(a) (DEQUAL((dsqrarg=(a)),0.0) ? 0.0 : dsqrarg*dsqrarg) */
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];  static double sqrarg;
         }  #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
          #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  
         savm=oldm;  int imx; 
         oldm=newm;  int stepm=1;
          /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
          
       } /* end mult */  int estepm;
        /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);  
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/  int m,nb;
       ipmx +=1;  long *num;
       sw += weight[i];  int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *cens;
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;  int *ncodemax;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
     } /* end of wave */                     covariate for which somebody answered excluding 
   } /* end of individual */                     undefined. Usually 2: 0 and 1. */
   int *ncodemaxwundef;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];                               covariate for which somebody answered including 
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */                               undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
   return -l;  double **pmmij, ***probs;
 }  double *ageexmed,*agecens;
   double dateintmean=0;
   
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/  double *weight;
   int **s; /* Status */
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))  double *agedc;
 {  double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
   int i,j, iter;                    * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
   double **xi,*delti;                    * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*age; */
   double fret;  double  idx; 
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)  int *Tage;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  int *Ndum; /** Freq of modality (tricode */
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  /* int **codtab;*/ /**< codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); */
   printf("Powell\n");  int **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);  double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
   
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));  double ftol=FTOL; /**< Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));  double ftolhess; /**< Tolerance for computing hessian */
   
 }  /**************** split *************************/
   static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/  {
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))    /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
 {       the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;    */ 
   double **hess;    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
   int i, j,jk;    int   l1=0, l2=0;                             /* length counters */
   int *indx;  
     l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);    ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;      strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
       /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
       /* get current working directory */
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  #ifdef WIN32
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);      if (_getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);  #else
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/          if (getcwd(dirc, FILENAME_MAX) == NULL) {
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/  #endif
   }        return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
        }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
       if (j>i) {    } else {                              /* strip directory from path */
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];          if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
       }      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
     }      dirc[l1-l2] = '\0';                 /* add zero */
   }      printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
   printf("\n");    }
     /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
      if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);      dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);      dirc[l1+1] = 0; 
   x=vector(1,npar);      printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
   indx=ivector(1,npar);    }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];    if (ss >0){
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);      ss++;
       strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {      l1= strlen( name);
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;      l2= strlen(ss)+1;
     x[j]=1;      strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);      finame[l1-l2]= 0;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){    }
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];  
     }    return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
   }  }
   
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");  
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  /******************************************/
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
     }  {
     printf("\n");    int i;
   }    int lg=0;
     i=0;
   /* Recompute Inverse */    lg=strlen(t);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];      (s[i] = t[i]);
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
     }
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");  }
   
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  char *trimbb(char *out, char *in)
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;  { /* Trim multiple blanks in line but keeps first blanks if line starts with blanks */
     x[j]=1;    char *s;
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);    s=out;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){    while (*in != '\0'){
       y[i][j]=x[i];      while( *in == ' ' && *(in+1) == ' '){ /* && *(in+1) != '\0'){*/
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);        in++;
     }      }
     printf("\n");      *out++ = *in++;
   }    }
   */    *out='\0';
     return s;
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);  }
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);  
   free_vector(x,1,npar);  /* char *substrchaine(char *out, char *in, char *chain) */
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);  /* { */
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);  /*   /\* Substract chain 'chain' from 'in', return and output 'out' *\/ */
   /*   char *s, *t; */
   /*   t=in;s=out; */
 }  /*   while ((*in != *chain) && (*in != '\0')){ */
   /*     *out++ = *in++; */
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/  /*   } */
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])  
 {  /*   /\* *in matches *chain *\/ */
   int i;  /*   while ((*in++ == *chain++) && (*in != '\0')){ */
   int l=1, lmax=20;  /*     printf("*in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
   double k1,k2;  /*   } */
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];  /*   in--; chain--; */
   double res;  /*   while ( (*in != '\0')){ */
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;  /*     printf("Bef *in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
   double fx;  /*     *out++ = *in++; */
   int k=0,kmax=10;  /*     printf("Aft *in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
   double l1;  /*   } */
   /*   *out='\0'; */
   fx=func(x);  /*   out=s; */
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  /*   return out; */
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /* } */
     l1=pow(10,l);  char *substrchaine(char *out, char *in, char *chain)
     delts=delt;  {
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){    /* Substract chain 'chain' from 'in', return and output 'out' */
       delt = delta*(l1*k);    /* in="V1+V1*age+age*age+V2", chain="age*age" */
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;  
       k1=func(p2)-fx;    char *strloc;
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;  
       k2=func(p2)-fx;    strcpy (out, in); 
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */    strloc = strstr(out, chain); /* strloc points to out at age*age+V2 */
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */    printf("Bef strloc=%s chain=%s out=%s \n", strloc, chain, out);
          if(strloc != NULL){ 
 #ifdef DEBUG      /* will affect out */ /* strloc+strlenc(chain)=+V2 */ /* Will also work in Unicode */
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);      memmove(strloc,strloc+strlen(chain), strlen(strloc+strlen(chain))+1);
 #endif      /* strcpy (strloc, strloc +strlen(chain));*/
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */    }
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){    printf("Aft strloc=%s chain=%s in=%s out=%s \n", strloc, chain, in, out);
         k=kmax;    return out;
       }  }
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */  
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;  
       }  char *cutl(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){  {
         delts=delt;    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before FIRST occurence of char 'occ' 
       }       and alocc starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
     }       gives blocc="abcdef" and alocc="ghi2j".
   }       If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns blocc
   delti[theta]=delts;    */
   return res;    char *s, *t;
      t=in;s=in;
 }    while ((*in != occ) && (*in != '\0')){
       *alocc++ = *in++;
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)    }
 {    if( *in == occ){
   int i;      *(alocc)='\0';
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;      s=++in;
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;    }
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];   
   int k;    if (s == t) {/* occ not found */
       *(alocc-(in-s))='\0';
   fx=func(x);      in=s;
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {    }
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];    while ( *in != '\0'){
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;      *blocc++ = *in++;
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;    }
     k1=func(p2)-fx;  
      *blocc='\0';
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;    return t;
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;  }
     k2=func(p2)-fx;  char *cutv(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
    {
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before LAST occurence of char 'occ' 
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;       and alocc starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
     k3=func(p2)-fx;       gives blocc="abcdef2ghi" and alocc="j".
         If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns alocc
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    */
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    char *s, *t;
     k4=func(p2)-fx;    t=in;s=in;
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */    while (*in != '\0'){
 #ifdef DEBUG      while( *in == occ){
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);        *blocc++ = *in++;
 #endif        s=in;
   }      }
   return res;      *blocc++ = *in++;
 }    }
     if (s == t) /* occ not found */
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/      *(blocc-(in-s))='\0';
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)    else
 {      *(blocc-(in-s)-1)='\0';
   int i,imax,j,k;    in=s;
   double big,dum,sum,temp;    while ( *in != '\0'){
   double *vv;      *alocc++ = *in++;
      }
   vv=vector(1,n);  
   *d=1.0;    *alocc='\0';
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    return s;
     big=0.0;  }
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");  {
     vv[i]=1.0/big;    int i,j=0;
   }    int lg=20;
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    i=0;
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {    lg=strlen(s);
       sum=a[i][j];    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
       a[i][j]=sum;    }
     }    return j;
     big=0.0;  }
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {  
       sum=a[i][j];  /* void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ) */
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)  /* { */
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];  /*   /\* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before last occurence of char 'occ'  */
       a[i][j]=sum;  /*      and v starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2') */
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {  /*      gives u="abcdef2ghi" and v="j" *\/ */
         big=dum;  /*   int i,lg,j,p=0; */
         imax=i;  /*   i=0; */
       }  /*   lg=strlen(t); */
     }  /*   for(j=0; j<=lg-1; j++) { */
     if (j != imax) {  /*     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1; */
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {  /*   } */
         dum=a[imax][k];  
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];  /*   for(j=0; j<p; j++) { */
         a[j][k]=dum;  /*     (u[j] = t[j]); */
       }  /*   } */
       *d = -(*d);  /*      u[p]='\0'; */
       vv[imax]=vv[j];  
     }  /*    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) { */
     indx[j]=imax;  /*     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]); */
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;  /*   } */
     if (j != n) {  /* } */
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);  
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;  #ifdef _WIN32
     }  char * strsep(char **pp, const char *delim)
   }  {
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */    char *p, *q;
 ;           
 }    if ((p = *pp) == NULL)
       return 0;
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])    if ((q = strpbrk (p, delim)) != NULL)
 {    {
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;      *pp = q + 1;
   double sum;      *q = '\0';
      }
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    else
     ip=indx[i];      *pp = 0;
     sum=b[ip];    return p;
     b[ip]=b[i];  }
     if (ii)  #endif
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];  
     else if (sum) ii=i;  /********************** nrerror ********************/
     b[i]=sum;  
   }  void nrerror(char error_text[])
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {  {
     sum=b[i];    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
   }  }
 }  /*********************** vector *******************/
   double *vector(int nl, int nh)
 /************ Frequencies ********************/  {
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)    double *v;
 {  /* Some frequencies */    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
      if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;    return v-nl+NR_END;
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */  }
   double *pp;  
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;  /************************ free vector ******************/
   FILE *ficresp;  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];  {
      free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);  }
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");  /************************ivector *******************************/
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {  {
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);    int *v;
     exit(0);    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
   }    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    return v-nl+NR_END;
   j1=0;  }
   
   j=cptcoveff;  /******************free ivector **************************/
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
   {
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){  }
        j1++;  
        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);  /************************lvector *******************************/
          scanf("%d", i);*/  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
         for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)    {
          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)      long *v;
            for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
              freq[i][jk][m]=0;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
     return v-nl+NR_END;
         dateintsum=0;  }
         k2cpt=0;  
        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {  /******************free lvector **************************/
          bool=1;  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
          if  (cptcovn>0) {  {
            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])  }
                bool=0;  
          }  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
          if (bool==1) {  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);  { 
              if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;    int **m; 
                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;    
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;    m += NR_END; 
                  k2cpt++;    m -= nrl; 
                }    
     
              }    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
            }    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
          }    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
        }    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
            m[nrl] -= ncl; 
        fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);    
     for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
         if  (cptcovn>0) {    
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);    return m; 
        fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");  } 
         }  
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);  void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");        int **m;
                long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
   for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
     if(i==(int)agemax+3)  { 
       printf("Total");    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
     else    free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
       printf("Age %d", i);  } 
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  
       for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)  /******************* matrix *******************************/
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
     }  {
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
       for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)    double **m;
         pos += freq[jk][m][i];  
       if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
       else    m += NR_END;
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);    m -= nrl;
     }  
     m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
      for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
       for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)    m[nrl] += NR_END;
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];    m[nrl] -= ncl;
      }  
     for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
     for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)    return m;
       pos += pp[jk];    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) or &(m[1][0])
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  m[i] = address of ith row of the table. &(m[i]) is its value which is another adress
       if(pos>=1.e-5)  that of m[i][0]. In order to get the value p m[i][0] but it is unitialized.
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);     */
       else  }
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);  
       if( i <= (int) agemax){  /*************************free matrix ************************/
         if(pos>=1.e-5){  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
           fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);  {
           probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
           /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
         }  }
       else  
           fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
       }  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
     }  {
     for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
       for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)    double ***m;
         if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);  
     if(i <= (int) agemax)    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
       fprintf(ficresp,"\n");    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
     printf("\n");    m += NR_END;
     }    m -= nrl;
     }  
  }    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
      m[nrl] += NR_END;
   fclose(ficresp);    m[nrl] -= ncl;
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);  
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   
   /* End of Freq */    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
 }    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
     m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
 /************ Prevalence ********************/    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
 void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
 {  /* Some frequencies */      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
      
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
   double *pp;      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
   double pos, k2;        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
     }
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);    return m; 
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
               &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    */
   j1=0;  }
    
   j=cptcoveff;  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
    {
  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
       j1++;    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
    }
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)    
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)    /*************** function subdirf ***********/
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;  {
          /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
         bool=1;    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
         if  (cptcovn>0) {    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)    return tmpout;
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])  }
               bool=0;  
         }  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
         if (bool==1) {  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){  {
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);    
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;    strcat(tmpout,"/");
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];    strcat(tmpout,preop);
               /* freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3+1)] += weight[i];  */    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
             }    return tmpout;
           }  }
         }  
       }  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
         for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  {
             for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)    
               pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
           }    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    strcat(tmpout,"/");
             for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)    strcat(tmpout,preop);
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
         }    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
            return tmpout;
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  }
            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)  
              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
          }  {
              long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
          for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
     sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){              hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
            if( i <= (int) agemax){    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
              if(pos>=1.e-5){    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
                probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
              }    sprintf(ascdiff,"%ld day(s) %ld hour(s) %ld minute(s) %ld second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
            }    return ascdiff;
          }  }
            
         }  /***************** f1dim *************************/
     }  extern int ncom; 
   }  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
    extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
     
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);  double f1dim(double x) 
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);  { 
      int j; 
 }  /* End of Freq */    double f;
     double *xt; 
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/   
     xt=vector(1,ncom); 
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
 {    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).    return f; 
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i  } 
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]  
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.  /*****************brent *************************/
      */  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
   {
   int i, mi, m;    /* Given a function f, and given a bracketing triplet of abscissas ax, bx, cx (such that bx is
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;     * between ax and cx, and f(bx) is less than both f(ax) and f(cx) ), this routine isolates
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/     * the minimum to a fractional precision of about tol using Brent’s method. The abscissa of
      * the minimum is returned as xmin, and the minimum function value is returned as brent , the
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;     * returned function value. 
   double sum=0.;    */
   jmin=1e+5;    int iter; 
   jmax=-1;    double a,b,d,etemp;
   jmean=0.;    double fu=0,fv,fw,fx;
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){    double ftemp=0.;
     mi=0;    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
     m=firstpass;    double e=0.0; 
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){   
       if(s[m][i]>=1)    a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
         mw[++mi][i]=m;    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
       if(m >=lastpass)    x=w=v=bx; 
         break;    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
       else    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
         m++;      xm=0.5*(a+b); 
     }/* end while */      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
          /* Only death is a correct wave */  #ifdef DEBUGBRENT
       mw[mi][i]=m;      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
     }      fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
       /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
     wav[i]=mi;  #endif
     if(mi==0)      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);        *xmin=x; 
   }        return fx; 
       } 
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){      ftemp=fu;
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
       if (stepm <=0)        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
         dh[mi][i]=1;        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
       else{        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {        q=2.0*(q-r); 
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);        q=fabs(q); 
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */        etemp=e; 
           k=k+1;        e=d; 
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
           sum=sum+j;        else { 
           /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */          d=p/q; 
           }          u=x+d; 
         }          if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
         else{            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));        } 
           k=k+1;      } else { 
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;      } 
           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
           sum=sum+j;      fu=(*f)(u); 
         }      if (fu <= fx) { 
         jk= j/stepm;        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
         jl= j -jk*stepm;        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;        SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
         if(jl <= -ju)      } else { 
           dh[mi][i]=jk;        if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
         else        if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;          v=w; 
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)          w=u; 
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */          fv=fw; 
       }          fw=fu; 
     }        } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
   }          v=u; 
   jmean=sum/k;          fv=fu; 
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);        } 
  }      } 
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/    } 
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
 {    *xmin=x; 
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;    return fx; 
   int cptcode=0;  } 
   cptcoveff=0;  
    /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;  
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
               double (*func)(double)) 
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {  { /* Given a function func , and given distinct initial points ax and bx , this routine searches in
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {  the downhill direction (defined by the function as evaluated at the initial points) and returns
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);  new points ax , bx , cx that bracket a minimum of the function. Also returned are the function
       Ndum[ij]++;  values at the three points, fa, fb , and fc such that fa > fb and fb < fc.
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/     */
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
     }    double fu; 
   
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {    double scale=10.;
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;    int iterscale=0;
     }  
     ij=1;    *fa=(*func)(*ax); /*  xta[j]=pcom[j]+(*ax)*xicom[j]; fa=f(xta[j])*/
     *fb=(*func)(*bx); /*  xtb[j]=pcom[j]+(*bx)*xicom[j]; fb=f(xtb[j]) */
   
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {  
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {    /* while(*fb != *fb){ /\* *ax should be ok, reducing distance to *ax *\/ */
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {    /*   printf("Warning mnbrak *fb = %lf, *bx=%lf *ax=%lf *fa==%lf iter=%d\n",*fb, *bx, *ax, *fa, iterscale++); */
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;    /*   *bx = *ax - (*ax - *bx)/scale; */
           ij++;    /*   *fb=(*func)(*bx);  /\*  xtb[j]=pcom[j]+(*bx)*xicom[j]; fb=f(xtb[j]) *\/ */
         }    /* } */
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;  
       }      if (*fb > *fa) { 
     }      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
   }        SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
     } 
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
     *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {  #ifdef DEBUG
       ij=Tvar[i];    printf("mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
       Ndum[ij]++;    fprintf(ficlog,"mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
     }  #endif
     while (*fb > *fc) { /* Declining a,b,c with fa> fb > fc */
  ij=1;      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;        (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); /* Minimum abscissa of a parabolic estimated from (a,fa), (b,fb) and (c,fc). */
      ij++;      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); /* Maximum abscissa where function should be evaluated */
    }      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { /* if u_p is between b and c */
  }        fu=(*func)(u); 
    #ifdef DEBUG
     cptcoveff=ij-1;        /* f(x)=A(x-u)**2+f(u) */
 }        double A, fparabu; 
         A= (*fb - *fa)/(*bx-*ax)/(*bx+*ax-2*u);
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/        fparabu= *fa - A*(*ax-u)*(*ax-u);
         printf("mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
 {        /* And thus,it can be that fu > *fc even if fparabu < *fc */
   /* Health expectancies */        /* mnbrak (*ax=7.666299858533, *fa=299039.693133272231), (*bx=8.595447774979, *fb=298976.598289369489),
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k;          (*cx=10.098840694817, *fc=298946.631474258087),  (*u=9.852501168332, fu=298948.773013752128, fparabu=298945.434711494134) */
   double age, agelim,hf;        /* In that case, there is no bracket in the output! Routine is wrong with many consequences.*/
   double ***p3mat;  #endif 
    #ifdef MNBRAKORIGINAL
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");  #else
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");  /*       if (fu > *fc) { */
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  /* #ifdef DEBUG */
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  /*       printf("mnbrak4  fu > fc \n"); */
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);  /*       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak4 fu > fc\n"); */
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");  /* #endif */
   /*      /\* SHFT(u,*cx,*cx,u) /\\* ie a=c, c=u and u=c; in that case, next SHFT(a,b,c,u) will give a=b=b, b=c=u, c=u=c and *\\/  *\/ */
   k=1;             /* For example stepm=6 months */  /*      /\* SHFT(*fa,*fc,fu,*fc) /\\* (b, u, c) is a bracket while test fb > fc will be fu > fc  will exit *\\/ *\/ */
   hstepm=k*YEARM; /* (a) Every k years of age (in months), for example every k=2 years 24 m */  /*      dum=u; /\* Shifting c and u *\/ */
   hstepm=stepm;   /* or (b) We decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */  /*      u = *cx; */
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.  /*      *cx = dum; */
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim  /*      dum = fu; */
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.  /*      fu = *fc; */
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size  /*      *fc =dum; */
      and note for a fixed period like k years */  /*       } else { /\* end *\/ */
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the  /* #ifdef DEBUG */
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it  /*       printf("mnbrak3  fu < fc \n"); */
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if  /*       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak3 fu < fc\n"); */
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same  /* #endif */
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.  /*      dum=u; /\* Shifting c and u *\/ */
   */  /*      u = *cx; */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if k= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */  /*      *cx = dum; */
   /*      dum = fu; */
   agelim=AGESUP;  /*      fu = *fc; */
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  /*      *fc =dum; */
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */  /*       } */
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);  #ifdef DEBUG
     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */        printf("mnbrak34  fu < or >= fc \n");
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak34 fu < fc\n");
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */  #endif
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        dum=u; /* Shifting c and u */
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored        u = *cx;
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */        *cx = dum;
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);          dum = fu;
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */        fu = *fc;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        *fc =dum;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  #endif
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { /* u is after c but before ulim */
           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;  #ifdef DEBUG
           /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/        printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim\n");
         }        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim\n");
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );  #endif
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        fu=(*func)(u); 
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){        if (fu < *fc) { 
         fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age]);  #ifdef DEBUG
       }        printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim AND fu < fc\n");
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim AND fu <fc \n");
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  #endif
   }          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
 }          SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
         } 
 /************ Variance ******************/      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { /* u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c) */
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)  #ifdef DEBUG
 {        printf("mnbrak2  u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
   /* Variance of health expectancies */        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/  #endif
   double **newm;        u=ulim; 
   double **dnewm,**doldm;        fu=(*func)(u); 
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;      } else { /* u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum) */
   int k, cptcode;  #ifdef DEBUG
   double *xp;        printf("mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
   double **gp, **gm;        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;  #endif
   double ***p3mat;        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
   double age,agelim;        fu=(*func)(u); 
   int theta;      } /* end tests */
       SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");      SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");  #ifdef DEBUG
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        printf("mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);  #endif
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");    } /* end while; ie return (a, b, c, fa, fb, fc) such that a < b < c with f(a) > f(b) and fb < f(c) */
   } 
   xp=vector(1,npar);  
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  /*************** linmin ************************/
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  /* Given an n -dimensional point p[1..n] and an n -dimensional direction xi[1..n] , moves and
    resets p to where the function func(p) takes on a minimum along the direction xi from p ,
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */  and replaces xi by the actual vector displacement that p was moved. Also returns as fret
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */  the value of func at the returned location p . This is actually all accomplished by calling the
   agelim = AGESUP;  routines mnbrak and brent .*/
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  int ncom; 
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */  double *pcom,*xicom;
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */   
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);  { 
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
     double f1dim(double x); 
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */                double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    int j; 
       }    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      double fx,fb,fa;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);  
   #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
       if (popbased==1) {  #else
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    double scale=10., axs, xxs; /* Scale added for infinity */
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];  #endif
       }    
      ncom=n; 
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){    pcom=vector(1,n); 
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    xicom=vector(1,n); 
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)    nrfunc=func; 
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         }      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
       }      xicom[j]=xi[j]; /* Former scale xi[j] of currrent direction i */
        } 
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */  
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      xx=1.;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);  #else
      axs=0.0;
       if (popbased==1) {    xxs=1.;
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    do{
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];      xx= xxs;
       }  #endif
       ax=0.;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){      mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);  /* Outputs: xtx[j]=pcom[j]+(*xx)*xicom[j]; fx=f(xtx[j]) */
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      /* brackets with inputs ax=0 and xx=1, but points, pcom=p, and directions values, xicom=xi, are sent via f1dim(x) */
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)      /* xt[x,j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]  f(ax) = f(xt(a,j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 0 * xi(j)) and  f(xx) = f(xt(x, j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 1 * xi(j))   */
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];      /* Outputs: fa=f(p(j)) and fx=f(p(j) + xxs * xi(j) ) and f(bx)= f(p(j)+ bx* xi(j)) */
         }      /* Given input ax=axs and xx=xxs, xx might be too far from ax to get a finite f(xx) */
       }      /* Searches on line, outputs (ax, xx, bx) such that fx < min(fa and fb) */
       /* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom, order may change. Scale is [0:xxs*xi[j]] et non plus  [0:xi[j]]*/
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)  #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){  #else
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];      if (fx != fx){
         }          xxs=xxs/scale; /* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 */
     } /* End theta */          printf("|");
           fprintf(ficlog,"|");
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
           printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n",  axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx);
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)  #endif
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)      }
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    }while(fx != fx);
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];  #endif
     
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    printf("\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n",  ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;    fprintf(ficlog,"\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n",  ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){  #endif
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); /* Giving a bracketting triplet (ax, xx, bx), find a minimum, xmin, according to f1dim, *fret(xmin),*/
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);    /* fa = f(p[j] + ax * xi[j]), fx = f(p[j] + xx * xi[j]), fb = f(p[j] + bx * xi[j]) */
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);    /* fmin = f(p[j] + xmin * xi[j]) */
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    /* P+lambda n in that direction (lambdamin), with TOL between abscisses */
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    /* f1dim(xmin): for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+xmin*xicom[j]; */
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];  #ifdef DEBUG
       }    printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
     }    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
     h=1;  #endif
     if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );    printf("linmin end ");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    fprintf(ficlog,"linmin end ");
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){  #endif
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       }  #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");      xi[j] *= xmin; 
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  #else
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);      if(xxs <1.0)
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]);
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  #endif
   } /* End age */      xi[j] *= xmin*xxs; /* xi rescaled by xmin and number of loops: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
    #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      if(xxs <1.0)
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs );
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  #endif
   #endif
 }      p[j] += xi[j]; /* Parameters values are updated accordingly */
     } 
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)    printf("\n");
 {    printf("Comparing last *frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, *fret, (*func)(p));
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */    fprintf(ficlog,"Comparing last *frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, *fret, (*func)(p));
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   double **newm;      printf(" xi[%d]= %14.10f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xi[j],j,p[j]);
   double **dnewm,**doldm;      fprintf(ficlog," xi[%d]= %14.10f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xi[j],j,p[j]);
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;      if(j % ncovmodel == 0){
   int k, cptcode;        printf("\n");
   double *xp;        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   double *gp, *gm;      }
   double **gradg, **trgradg;    }
   double age,agelim;  #else
   int theta;  #endif
        free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");  } 
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);  
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");  /*************** powell ************************/
   /*
   xp=vector(1,npar);  Minimization of a function func of n variables. Input consists of an initial starting point
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  p[1..n] ; an initial matrix xi[1..n][1..n] , whose columns contain the initial set of di-
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  rections (usually the n unit vectors); and ftol , the fractional tolerance in the function value
    such that failure to decrease by more than this amount on one iteration signals doneness. On
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */  output, p is set to the best point found, xi is the then-current direction set, fret is the returned
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */  function value at p , and iter is the number of iterations taken. The routine linmin is used.
   agelim = AGESUP;   */
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */              double (*func)(double [])) 
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;  { 
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);                double (*func)(double [])); 
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);    int i,ibig,j; 
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
     double directest;
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    double fp,fptt;
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */    double *xits;
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    int niterf, itmp;
       }  
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    pt=vector(1,n); 
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    ptt=vector(1,n); 
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];    xit=vector(1,n); 
        xits=vector(1,n); 
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */    *fret=(*func)(p); 
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];      fp=(*fret); /* From former iteration or initial value */
       ibig=0; 
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      del=0.0; 
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];      rlast_time=rcurr_time;
     } /* End theta */      /* (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
       rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);      curr_time = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
       printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time);fflush(stdout);
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret,rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time); fflush(ficlog);
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)  /*     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec); */
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
         printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;        fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);      }
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);      printf("\n");
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
       if(*iter <=3){
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );        tml = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tml));
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));        rforecast_time=rcurr_time; 
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for the last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
   } /* End age */        for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
           rforecast_time=rcurr_time+(niterf-*iter)*(rcurr_time-rlast_time);
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);          forecast_time = *localtime(&rforecast_time);
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&forecast_time));
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          itmp = strlen(strfor);
           if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
 }          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
           printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
 void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)        }
 {      }
   int i, j;      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { /* For each direction i */
   int k=0, cptcode;        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; /* Directions stored from previous iteration with previous scales */
   double **dnewm,**doldm;        fptt=(*fret); 
   double *xp;  #ifdef DEBUG
   double *gp, *gm;        printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
   double **gradg, **trgradg;        fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];  #endif
   int theta;        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* Point p[n]. xit[n] has been loaded for direction i as input.*/
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");                                      /* Outputs are fret(new point p) p is updated and xit rescaled */
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { /* We are keeping the max gain on each of the n directions */
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {          /* because that direction will be replaced unless the gain del is small */
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);          /* in comparison with the 'probable' gain, mu^2, with the last average direction. */
   }          /* Unless the n directions are conjugate some gain in the determinant may be obtained */
   printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);          /* with the new direction. */
            del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
           ibig=i; 
   xp=vector(1,npar);        } 
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);  #ifdef DEBUG
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
          fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
   cov[1]=1;        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
     cov[2]=age;          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
     trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);        }
     gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
     gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));          printf(" p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
              fprintf(ficlog," p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){        }
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)        printf("\n");
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        #endif
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);      } /* end loop on each direction i */
          /* Convergence test will use last linmin estimation (fret) and compare former iteration (fp) */ 
       k=0;      /* But p and xit have been updated at the end of linmin, *fret corresponds to new p, xit  */
       for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){      /* New value of last point Pn is not computed, P(n-1) */
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) { /* Did we reach enough precision? */
            k=k+1;        /* We could compare with a chi^2. chisquare(0.95,ddl=1)=3.84 */
           gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];        /* By adding age*age in a model, the new -2LL should be lower and the difference follows a */
         }        /* a chisquare statistics with 1 degree. To be significant at the 95% level, it should have */
       }        /* decreased of more than 3.84  */
         /* By adding age*age and V1*age the gain (-2LL) should be more than 5.99 (ddl=2) */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)        /* By using V1+V2+V3, the gain should be  7.82, compared with basic 1+age. */
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        /* By adding 10 parameters more the gain should be 18.31 */
      
         /* Starting the program with initial values given by a former maximization will simply change */
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);        /* the scales of the directions and the directions, because the are reset to canonical directions */
       k=0;        /* Thus the first calls to linmin will give new points and better maximizations until fp-(*fret) is */
       for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){        /* under the tolerance value. If the tolerance is very small 1.e-9, it could last long.  */
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  #ifdef DEBUG
           k=k+1;        int k[2],l;
           gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];        k[0]=1;
         }        k[1]=-1;
       }        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
              fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
        for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
            gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];            printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
     }          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
         }
      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)        printf("\n");
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
            for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);          }
           printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
      k=0;          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
      for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){        }
        for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  #endif
          k=k+1;  
          gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];  
         }        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
      }        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
              free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
      /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){        return; 
              } /* enough precision */ 
       if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { /* Computes the extrapolated point P_0 + 2 (P_n-P_0) */
      }*/        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
         xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);        pt[j]=p[j]; 
       } 
   for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){      fptt=(*func)(ptt); /* f_3 */
     if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);  #ifdef POWELLF1F3
 if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);  #else
   }      if (fptt < fp) { /* If extrapolated point is better, decide if we keep that new direction or not */
   #endif
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        /* (x1 f1=fp), (x2 f2=*fret), (x3 f3=fptt), (xm fm) */
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        /* From x1 (P0) distance of x2 is at h and x3 is 2h */
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);        /* Let f"(x2) be the 2nd derivative equal everywhere.  */
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);        /* Then the parabolic through (x1,f1), (x2,f2) and (x3,f3) */
 }        /* will reach at f3 = fm + h^2/2 f"m  ; f" = (f1 -2f2 +f3 ) / h**2 */
  free_vector(xp,1,npar);        /* Conditional for using this new direction is that mu^2 = (f1-2f2+f3)^2 /2 < del */
 fclose(ficresprob);        /* t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); */
   #ifdef NRCORIGINAL
 }        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)- del*SQR(fp-fptt); /* Original Numerical Recipes in C*/
   #else
 /******************* Printing html file ***********/        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del); /* Intel compiler doesn't work on one line; bug reported */
 void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char optionfile[],char optionfilehtm[],char rfileres[] ){        t= t- del*SQR(fp-fptt);
   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;  #endif
   FILE *fichtm;        directest = fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt - 2.0 * del; /* If delta was big enough we change it for a new direction */
   /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/  #ifdef DEBUG
         printf("t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf  directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);        fprintf(ficlog,"t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");        printf("t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {               (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);        fprintf(ficlog,"t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
   }               (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
         printf("tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
  fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> <font size=\"6\">Imach, Version 0.8 </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">        fprintf(ficlog, "tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
 Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>  #endif
   #ifdef POWELLORIGINAL
 Total number of observations=%d <br>        if (t < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>  #else
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">        if (directest*t < 0.0) { /* Contradiction between both tests */
 <li>Outputs files<br><br>\n          printf("directest= %.12lf (if <0 we include P0 Pn as new direction), t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt,del);
         - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n          printf("f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
 - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>          fprintf(ficlog,"directest= %.12lf (if <0 we include P0 Pn as new direction), t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt, del);
         - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>          fprintf(ficlog,"f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
         - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>        } 
         - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>        if (directest < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
         - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>  #endif
         - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
         - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>          printf("Before linmin in direction P%d-P0\n",n);
         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>            printf(" Before xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
         - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>            fprintf(ficlog," Before xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
         <br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);            if(j % ncovmodel == 0){
                printf("\n");
 fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");              fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             }
  m=cptcoveff;          }
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}  #endif
           linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* computes minimum on the extrapolated direction: changes p and rescales xit.*/
  jj1=0;  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){            printf("After xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
        jj1++;            fprintf(ficlog,"After xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
        if (cptcovn > 0) {            if(j % ncovmodel == 0){
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");              printf("\n");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)              fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);            }
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");          }
        }  #endif
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
 <img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);                xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; /* Replace direction with biggest decrease by last direction n */
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){            xi[j][n]=xit[j];      /* and this nth direction by the by the average p_0 p_n */
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>          }
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);          printf("Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
        }          fprintf(ficlog,"Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {  
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident  #ifdef DEBUG
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);            fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
      }          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>            fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);          }
      }          printf("\n");
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>  #endif
 <img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);        } /* end of t or directest negative */
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");  #ifdef POWELLF1F3
    }  #else
    }      } /* end if (fptt < fp)  */
 fclose(fichtm);  #endif
 }    } /* loop iteration */ 
   } 
 /******************* Gnuplot file **************/  
 void printinggnuplot(char fileres[],char optionfilefiname[],char optionfile[],char optionfilegnuplot[], double agemin, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){  /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
   
   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij)
   {
   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".plt");       matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached with precision ftolpl */
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {    /* Wx= Wx-1 Px-1= Wx-2 Px-2 Px-1  = Wx-n Px-n ... Px-2 Px-1 I */
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);    /* Wx is row vector: population in state 1, population in state 2, population dead */
   }    /* or prevalence in state 1, prevalence in state 2, 0 */
     /* newm is the matrix after multiplications, its rows are identical at a factor */
 #ifdef windows    /* Initial matrix pimij */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);    /* {0.85204250825084937, 0.13044499163996345, 0.017512500109187184, */
 #endif    /* 0.090851990222114765, 0.88271245433047185, 0.026435555447413338, */
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
      /*
  /* 1eme*/     * and after some iteration: */
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {    /* {0.45504275246439968, 0.42731458730878791, 0.11764266022681241, */
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    /*  0.45201005341706885, 0.42865420071559901, 0.11933574586733192, */
     /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
 #ifdef windows    /* And prevalence by suppressing the deaths are close to identical rows in prlim: */
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    /* {0.51571254859325999, 0.4842874514067399, */
 #endif    /*  0.51326036147820708, 0.48673963852179264} */
 #ifdef unix    /* If we start from prlim again, prlim tends to a constant matrix */
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);  
 #endif    int i, ii,j,k;
     double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    double **newm;
 }    double agefin, delaymax=100. ; /* 100 Max number of years to converge */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    int ncvloop=0;
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
 }        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      }
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    cov[1]=1.;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    
 }      /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));    /* Start at agefin= age, computes the matrix of passage and loops decreasing agefin until convergence is reached */
 #ifdef unix    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");      ncvloop++;
 #endif      newm=savm;
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
    }      cov[2]=agefin;
   }      if(nagesqr==1)
   /*2 eme*/        cov[3]= agefin*agefin;;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {        /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);        cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
            /* printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]); */
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {      }
       k=2*i;      /*wrong? for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]*cov[2]; */
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {      for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless */
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");        /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
 }          cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");      
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);      /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
 }        out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");      
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      savm=oldm;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {      oldm=newm;
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      maxmax=0.;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
 }          min=1.;
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");        max=0.;
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
     }          sumnew=0;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
   }          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
            max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
   /*3eme*/          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
           /* printf(" age= %d prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d max=%f min=%f\n", (int)age, i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin, max, min); */
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {        }
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {        maxmin=(max-min)/(max+min)*2;
       k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);        /* for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) { */
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {        /*        sumnew=0.; */
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);        /*        sumnew+=prlim[i][j]; */
       }        /* } */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        /* prmimj = sumnew/(float)nlstate; /\* Means of various prevalence limits. */
     }      } /* j loop */
     }      *ncvyear= (int)age- (int)agefin;
        /* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
   /* CV preval stat */      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {        /* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%ld, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {        return prlim;
       k=3;      }
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);    } /* age loop */
       /* After some age loop it doesn't converge */
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)    printf("Warning: the stable prevalence at age %d did not converge with the required precision %g > ftolpl=%g within %.0f years. \n\
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%d, ncvyear=%d\n", (int)age, maxmax, ftolpl, delaymax, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, *ncvyear);
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);    /* printf(" age= %d newm\n",(int)age); */
          /* for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;    /*   for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ */
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);    /*     printf(" %lf", newm[i][j]); */
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {    /*   } */
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;    /*   printf("\n"); */
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);    /* } */
       }    /* printf("\n"); */
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);      /* printf("prlim\n"); */
       fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    /* for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) { */
     }    /*   sumnew=0; */
   }      /*   for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k]; */
      /*   for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){ */
   /* proba elementaires */    /*     prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew); */
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    /*     printf(" %lf", prlim[i][j]); */
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){    /*   } */
       if (k != i) {    /*   printf("\n"); */
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    /* } */
            /* printf("\n"); */
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);    
           jk++;    /* Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");    return prlim; /* should not reach here */
         }  }
       }  
     }  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
     }  
   double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
     for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {  {
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemaxpar);    /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
    i=1;       computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
    for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {       model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
      k3=i;       lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
      for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {       and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
        if (k != k2){       ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
         fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);       j<i nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel
 ij=1;       j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
         for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {       Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {       sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);       Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
             ij++;       the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
           }    */
           else    double s1, lnpijopii;
           fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);    /*double t34;*/
         }    int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
           fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");  
              for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
         for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){          for(j=1; j<i;j++){
           fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);          for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
 ij=1;            /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
           for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){            lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {  /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);          }
             ij++;          ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
           }  /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
           else        }
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           }          for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
           fprintf(ficgp,")");            /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
         }            lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);  /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
         if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");          }
         i=i+ncovmodel;          ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
        }        }
      }      }
    }      
    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk);      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
    }        s1=0;
            for(j=1; j<i; j++){
   fclose(ficgp);          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
 }  /* end gnuplot */          /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
         }
         for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
 /*************** Moving average **************/          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
 void movingaverage(double agedeb, double fage,double agemin, double ***mobaverage){          /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
         }
   int i, cpt, cptcod;        /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
     for (agedeb=agemin; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++)        ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        /* Computing other pijs */
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
            for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
     for (agedeb=agemin+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){        /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){      } /* end i */
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){      
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];      for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
           }        for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;          ps[ii][jj]=0;
         }          ps[ii][ii]=1;
       }        }
     }      }
          
 }      
       /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
       /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
 /************** Forecasting ******************/      /*  printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
 prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double agemin, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){      /*   } */
        /*   printf("\n "); */
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;      /* } */
   int *popage;      /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;      /*
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;        for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
   double ***p3mat;        goto end;*/
   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];      return ps;
   }
  agelim=AGESUP;  
 calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
   
   prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,int nrl, int nrh, int ncl, int nch, int ncolol, int ncoloh, double **b)
    {
      /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");       b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
   }    int i, j, k;
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
       for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++){
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;        out[i][k]=0.;
         for(j=ncl; j<=nch; j++)
   if (mobilav==1) {          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);      }
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, agemin, mobaverage);    return out;
   }  }
   
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;  
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
    
   agelim=AGESUP;  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
    {
   hstepm=1;    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
   anprojmean=yp;       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
   mprojmean=yp;       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);       for the memory).
   jprojmean=yp;       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;       included manually here. 
   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;  
         */
   fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);  
      int i, j, d, h, k;
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){    double **newm;
       k=k+1;    double agexact;
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");  
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
       }      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);      }
          /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
          for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=(anproj2-anproj1);cpt++) {      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");        newm=savm;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);          /* Covariates have to be included here again */
         cov[1]=1.;
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){        agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);        cov[2]=agexact;
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;        if(nagesqr==1)
                    cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) 
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);            /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
                for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {          cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);          /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
             }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {          cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;          /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                
                 if (mobilav==1)  
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
                 else {        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
                 }                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                        savm=oldm;
               }        oldm=newm;
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){      }
                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
                                for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
               }          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
             }          /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
           }        }
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
         }    } /* end h */
       }  /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
     }    return po;
   }  }
          
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  #ifdef NLOPT
     double  myfunc(unsigned n, const double *p1, double *grad, void *pd){
   fclose(ficresf);    double fret;
 }    double *xt;
 /************** Forecasting ******************/    int j;
 populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double agemin, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){    myfunc_data *d2 = (myfunc_data *) pd;
    /* xt = (p1-1); */
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;    xt=vector(1,n); 
   int *popage;    for (j=1;j<=n;j++)   xt[j]=p1[j-1]; /* xt[1]=p1[0] */
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;  
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;    fret=(d2->function)(xt); /*  p xt[1]@8 is fine */
   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;    /* fret=(*func)(xt); /\*  p xt[1]@8 is fine *\/ */
   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];    printf("Function = %.12lf ",fret);
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) printf(" %d %.8lf", j, xt[j]); 
   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    printf("\n");
   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);   free_vector(xt,1,n);
   agelim=AGESUP;    return fret;
   calagedate=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;  }
    #endif
   prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);  
    /*************** log-likelihood *************/
    double func( double *x)
   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");  {
   strcat(filerespop,fileres);    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);    double **out;
   }    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
     int s1, s2;
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;    double bbh, survp;
     long ipmx;
   if (mobilav==1) {    double agexact;
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    /*extern weight */
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, agemin, mobaverage);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
   }    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
     /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    */
    
   agelim=AGESUP;    ++countcallfunc;
    
   hstepm=1;    cov[1]=1.;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;  
      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   if (popforecast==1) {  
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {    if(mle==1){
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
     }        /* Computes the values of the ncovmodel covariates of the model
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);           depending if the covariates are fixed or variying (age dependent) and stores them in cov[]
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);           Then computes with function pmij which return a matrix p[i][j] giving the elementary probability
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);           to be observed in j being in i according to the model.
             */
     i=1;          for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++){ /* Simple and product covariates without age* products */
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;            cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
            }
     imx=i;        /* In model V2+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2 Tvar[1] is V2, Tvar[2=V1*V4] 
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];           is 6, Tvar[3=age*V3] should not be computed because of age Tvar[4=V3*V2] 
   }           has been calculated etc */
         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       k=k+1;              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {            }
         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
       }            newm=savm;
       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");            cov[2]=agexact;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);            if(nagesqr==1)
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
                  for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact; /* Tage[kk] gives the data-covariate associated with age */
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);              }
                    out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);            savm=oldm;
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;            oldm=newm;
                    } /* end mult */
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);            /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
                   * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
             }           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {           * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;           * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                         * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
                 if (mobilav==1)           * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
                 else {           */
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                 }          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
               }          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){          /* bias bh is positive if real duration
                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);           */
                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
               }          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
             }            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known 
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){               then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to 
               kk1=0.;               die between last step unit time and current  step unit time, 
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){               which is also equal to probability to die before dh 
                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];               minus probability to die before dh-stepm . 
                 }               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedate+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
             }          health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
           and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
             if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
           }          introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
         }          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
       }          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
            and month of death but the probability to survive from last
   /******/          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
           probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);            mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){          which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);          lower mortality.
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;            */
                    /* If, at the beginning of the maximization mostly, the
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);             cumulative probability or probability to be dead is
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;             constant (ie = 1) over time d, the difference is equal to
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);               0.  out[s1][3] = savm[s1][3]: probability, being at state
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){             s1 at precedent wave, to be dead a month before current
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {             wave is equal to probability, being at state s1 at
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);             precedent wave, to be dead at mont of the current
             }             wave. Then the observed probability (that this person died)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {             is null according to current estimated parameter. In fact,
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;             it should be very low but not zero otherwise the log go to
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                           infinity.
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];              */
               }  /* #ifdef INFINITYORIGINAL */
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
             }  /* #else */
           }  /*        if ((out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]) < mytinydouble)  */
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  /*          lli=log(mytinydouble); */
         }  /*        else */
       }  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
    }  /* #endif */
   }              lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
    
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          } else if  (s2==-2) {
             for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
   if (popforecast==1) {              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);            /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);            lli= log(survp);
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);          }
   }          
   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          else if  (s2==-4) { 
   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);            for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)  
   fclose(ficrespop);              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
 }            lli= log(survp); 
           } 
 /***********************************************/  
 /**************** Main Program *****************/          else if  (s2==-5) { 
 /***********************************************/            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)  
               survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
 int main(int argc, char *argv[])            lli= log(survp); 
 {          } 
           
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;          else{
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
   double agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
           } 
   double fret;          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
   double **xi,tmp,delta;          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
           /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */          ipmx +=1;
   double ***p3mat;          sw += weight[i];
   int *indx;          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];          /* if (lli < log(mytinydouble)){ */
   char title[MAXLINE];          /*   printf("Close to inf lli = %.10lf <  %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[%d][i]=%d s1=%d s2=%d\n", lli,log(mytinydouble), i, mi,mw[mi][i], s[mw[mi][i]][i], s1,s2); */
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];          /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Close to inf lli = %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[mw[mi][i]][i]=%d\n", lli, i, mi,s[mw[mi][i]][i]); */
   char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];          /* } */
          } /* end of wave */
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];      } /* end of individual */
     }  else if(mle==2){
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   int c,  h , cpt,l;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   int ju,jl, mi;            }
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;            newm=savm;
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   int hstepm, nhstepm;            cov[2]=agexact;
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1;            if(nagesqr==1)
               cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   double ftolpl=FTOL;              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
   double **prlim;            }
   double *severity;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   double  *p;            savm=oldm;
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */            oldm=newm;
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */          } /* end mult */
   double *delti; /* Scale */        
   double ***eij, ***vareij;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   double *epj, vepp;          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
   double kk1, kk2;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;          ipmx +=1;
            sw += weight[i];
           ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   char version[80]="Imach version 0.8, March 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";        } /* end of wave */
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];      } /* end of individual */
     }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
       for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   char z[1]="c", occ;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
 #include <sys/time.h>        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
 #include <time.h>          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   /* long total_usecs;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;            }
            for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */            newm=savm;
             agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             cov[2]=agexact;
   printf("\n%s",version);            if(nagesqr==1)
   if(argc <=1){              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     scanf("%s",pathtot);              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
   }            }
   else{            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   }            savm=oldm;
   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/            oldm=newm;
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);          } /* end mult */
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/        
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
   chdir(path);          ipmx +=1;
   replace(pathc,path);          sw += weight[i];
           ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/        } /* end of wave */
       } /* end of individual */
   strcpy(fileres,"r");    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   /*---------arguments file --------*/          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     goto end;            }
   }          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
             newm=savm;
   strcpy(filereso,"o");            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   strcat(filereso,fileres);            cov[2]=agexact;
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {            if(nagesqr==1)
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
   }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */            }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          
     ungetc(c,ficpar);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     puts(line);            savm=oldm;
     fputs(line,ficparo);            oldm=newm;
   }          } /* end mult */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        
           s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          }else{
     ungetc(c,ficpar);            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          }
     puts(line);          ipmx +=1;
     fputs(line,ficparo);          sw += weight[i];
   }          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
          } /* end of wave */
          } /* end of individual */
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
   cptcovn=0;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   /* Read guess parameters */              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */            }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
     ungetc(c,ficpar);            newm=savm;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     puts(line);            cov[2]=agexact;
     fputs(line,ficparo);            if(nagesqr==1)
   }              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);            }
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)          
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);            savm=oldm;
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);            oldm=newm;
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){          } /* end mult */
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);        
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
       }          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");          ipmx +=1;
       printf("\n");          sw += weight[i];
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
     }          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
          } /* end of wave */
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;      } /* end of individual */
     } /* End of if */
   p=param[1][1];    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
      /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    return -l;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  }
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  
     puts(line);  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
     fputs(line,ficparo);  double funcone( double *x)
   }  {
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
     int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */    double **out;
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){    double llt;
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);    int s1, s2;
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);    double bbh, survp;
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);    double agexact;
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){    /*extern weight */
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
       }      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");    */
       printf("\n");    cov[1]=1.;
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");  
     }    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   }  
   delti=delti3[1][1];    for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     puts(line);            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     fputs(line,ficparo);          }
   }        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   ungetc(c,ficpar);          newm=savm;
            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);          cov[2]=agexact;
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){          if(nagesqr==1)
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);            cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
     printf("%s",str);          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);            cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){          }
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);  
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);          /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     }                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");          /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, */
     printf("\n");          /*           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); */
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");          savm=oldm;
   }          oldm=newm;
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)        } /* end mult */
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)        
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
            s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   printf("\n");        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
         /* bias is positive if real duration
          * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/         */
      strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
      strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */        } else if  (s2==-2) {
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */          for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;          lli= log(survp);
     }        }else if (mle==1){
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
            } else if(mle==2){
     /*-------- data file ----------*/          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
     }        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
           lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
     n= lastobs;        } else{  /* mle=0 back to 1 */
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);          /*lli=log(out[s1][s2]); */ /* Original formula */
     num=ivector(1,n);        } /* End of if */
     moisnais=vector(1,n);        ipmx +=1;
     annais=vector(1,n);        sw += weight[i];
     moisdc=vector(1,n);        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
     andc=vector(1,n);        /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
     agedc=vector(1,n);        if(globpr){
     cod=ivector(1,n);          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %11.6f %8.4f %8.3f\
     weight=vector(1,n);   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */                  num[i], agexact, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],weight[i]*gipmx/gsw,
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);                fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);          }
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
         }
     i=1;      } /* end of wave */
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {    } /* end of individual */
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
            /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
           strcpy(line,stra);      gipmx=ipmx;
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      gsw=sw;
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    }
         }    return -l;
          }
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  
   /*************** function likelione ***********/
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  {
     /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);       the selection of individuals/waves and
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);       Plotting could be done.
         }     */
         num[i]=atol(stra);    int k;
          
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/      strcpy(fileresilk,"ILK_"); 
       strcat(fileresilk,fileresu);
         i=i+1;      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
       }        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     }        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);      }
        scanf("%d",i);*/      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) count age s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight weight/gpw -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i age i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight %%weight 2wlli out sav ");
       /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;      fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;    }
     }  
     *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)    if(*globpri !=0){
     if (covar[1][i]==0) printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/      fclose(ficresilk);
       if (mle ==0)
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with initial parameters and mle = %d.",mle);
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);      else if(mle >=1)
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with optimized parameters mle = %d.",mle);
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);      fprintf(fichtm," You should at least run with mle >= 1 to get starting values corresponding to the optimized parameters in order to visualize the real contribution of each individual/wave: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);      
   Tage=ivector(1,15);              
          for (k=1; k<= nlstate ; k++) {
   if (strlen(model) >1){        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probability p%dj by origin %d and destination j <a href=\"%s-p%dj.png\">%s-p%dj.png</a><br> \
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;  <img src=\"%s-p%dj.png\">",k,k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k);
     j=nbocc(model,'+');      }
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- The function drawn is -2Log(L) in Log scale: by state of origin <a href=\"%s-ori.png\">%s-ori.png</a><br> \
     cptcovn=j+1;  <img src=\"%s-ori.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
     cptcovprod=j1;      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- and by state of destination <a href=\"%s-dest.png\">%s-dest.png</a><br> \
      <img src=\"%s-dest.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
          fflush(fichtm);
     strcpy(modelsav,model);    }
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){    return;
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);  }
       goto end;  
     }  
      /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){  
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);  {
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/    int i,j, iter=0;
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/    double **xi;
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {    double fret;
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {    /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
           cptcovprod--;  
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');  #ifdef NLOPT
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);    int creturn;
           cptcovage++;    nlopt_opt opt;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;    /* double lb[9] = { -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL }; /\* lower bounds *\/ */
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/    double *lb;
         }    double minf; /* the minimum objective value, upon return */
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {    double * p1; /* Shifted parameters from 0 instead of 1 */
           cptcovprod--;    myfunc_data dinst, *d = &dinst;
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');  #endif
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  
           cptcovage++;  
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;    xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
         }    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
         else {      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
           Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');    strcpy(filerespow,"POW_"); 
           Tprod[k1]=i;    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];    }
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
             covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           k1++;      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           k2=k2+2;        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
         }    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
       }  #ifdef POWELL
       else {    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/  #endif
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/  
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');  #ifdef NLOPT
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);  #ifdef NEWUOA
       }    opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_NEWUOA,npar);
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);    #else
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);    opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_BOBYQA,npar);
         scanf("%d",i);*/  #endif
     }    lb=vector(0,npar-1);
 }    for (i=0;i<npar;i++) lb[i]= -HUGE_VAL;
      nlopt_set_lower_bounds(opt, lb);
   /*printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);    nlopt_set_initial_step1(opt, 0.1);
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);    
   scanf("%d ",i);*/    p1= (p+1); /*  p *(p+1)@8 and p *(p1)@8 are equal p1[0]=p[1] */
     fclose(fic);    d->function = func;
     printf(" Func %.12lf \n",myfunc(npar,p1,NULL,d));
     /*  if(mle==1){*/    nlopt_set_min_objective(opt, myfunc, d);
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/    nlopt_set_xtol_rel(opt, ftol);
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;    if ((creturn=nlopt_optimize(opt, p1, &minf)) < 0) {
     }      printf("nlopt failed! %d\n",creturn); 
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/    }
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);    else {
       printf("found minimum after %d evaluations (NLOPT=%d)\n", countcallfunc ,NLOPT);
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)      printf("found minimum at f(%g,%g) = %0.10g\n", p[0], p[1], minf);
      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++)      iter=1; /* not equal */
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){    }
          anint[m][i]=9999;    nlopt_destroy(opt);
          s[m][i]=-1;  #endif
        }    free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
        fclose(ficrespow);
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {    printf("\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
         if(s[m][i] >0){  
           if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {  }
             if(agedc[i]>0)  
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];  void hesscov(double **matcov, double **hess, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
             else {  {
               if (andc[i]!=9999){    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);    /* double **hess; */
               agev[m][i]=-1;    int i, j;
               }    int *indx;
             }  
           }    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */    double hessij(double p[], double **hess, double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
               agev[m][i]=1;    double gompertz(double p[]);
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){    /* hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar); */
               agemin=agev[m][i];  
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
             }    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
               agemax=agev[m][i];      printf("%d-",i);fflush(stdout);
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/      fprintf(ficlog,"%d-",i);fflush(ficlog);
             }     
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/      
           }      /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
           else { /* =9 */          printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
             agev[m][i]=1;    }
             s[m][i]=-1;    
           }    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
         }      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
         else /*= 0 Unknown */        if (j>i) { 
           agev[m][i]=1;          printf(".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
       }          fprintf(ficlog,".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
              hess[i][j]=hessij(p,hess, delti,i,j,func,npar);
     }          
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {        }
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");        }
           goto end;    }
         }    printf("\n");
       }    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     }  
     printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
     
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);    a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);    x=vector(1,npar);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);    indx=ivector(1,npar);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);  
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
          for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
     wav=ivector(1,imx);      x[j]=1;
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
            matcov[i][j]=x[i];
     /* Concatenates waves */      }
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);    }
   
     printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
       ncodemax[1]=1;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);        printf("%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
              fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);      }
    h=0;      printf("\n");
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
      }
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){  
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){    /* printf("\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){    /* fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){    /* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  */
            h++;    /*   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  */
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;    /*     printf("%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
          }    /*     fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
        }    /*   } */
      }    /*   printf("\n"); */
    }    /*   fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
     /* } */
   
    /*for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){    /* Recompute Inverse */
      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){    /* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) */
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);    /*   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j]; */
      }    /* ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd); */
      printf("\n");  
    }    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n"); */
    scanf("%d",i);*/  
        /* for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { */
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age    /*   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0; */
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */    /*   x[j]=1; */
     /*   lubksb(a,npar,indx,x); */
        /*   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  */
        /*     y[i][j]=x[i]; */
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    /*     printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    /*     fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    /*   } */
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    /*   printf("\n"); */
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */    /*   fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
          /* } */
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]  
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */    /* Verifying the inverse matrix */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */  #ifdef DEBUGHESS
     y=matprod2(y,hess,1,npar,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
     if(mle==1){  
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);     printf("\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix, should be unity:#\n");
     }     fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix. Should be unity:#\n");
      
     /*--------- results files --------------*/    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
          printf("%.2f ",y[i][j]);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%.2f ",y[i][j]);
    jk=1;      }
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");      printf("\n");
    printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    }
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){  #endif
        if (k != i)  
          {    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);    free_vector(x,1,npar);
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);    /* free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar); */
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);  
              jk++;  
            }  }
            printf("\n");  
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
          }  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
      }  { /* Around values of x, computes the function func and returns the scales delti and hessian */
    }    int i;
  if(mle==1){    int l=1, lmax=20;
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */    double k1,k2, res, fx;
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */    double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
  }    int k=0,kmax=10;
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");    double l1;
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");  
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    fx=func(x);
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
         if (j!=i) {    for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum */
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);      l1=pow(10,l);
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);      delts=delt;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);        delt = delta*(l1*k);
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
             jk++;        k1=func(p2)-fx;   /* Might be negative if too close to the theoretical maximum */
           }        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
           printf("\n");        k2=func(p2)-fx;
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
         }        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by 2 because L and not 2*L */
       }        
      }  #ifdef DEBUGHESSII
            printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
     k=1;        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");  #endif
     printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;          k=kmax;
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;        }
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/          k=kmax; l=lmax*10;
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);        }
       printf("%3d",i);        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){          delts=delt;
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);        }
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);      } /* End loop k */
       }    }
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");    delti[theta]=delts;
       printf("\n");    return res; 
       k++;    
     }  }
      
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  double hessij( double x[], double **hess, double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
       ungetc(c,ficpar);  {
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    int i;
       puts(line);    int l=1, lmax=20;
       fputs(line,ficparo);    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
     }    double p2[MAXPARM+1];
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    int k, kmax=1;
      double v1, v2, cv12, lc1, lc2;
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage);  
        int firstime=0;
     if (fage <= 2) {    
       bage = agemin;    fx=func(x);
       fage = agemaxpar;    for (k=1; k<=kmax; k=k+10) {
     }      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
          p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemaxpar,bage,fage);      k1=func(p2)-fx;
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemaxpar,bage,fage);    
        p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      k2=func(p2)-fx;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    
     puts(line);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
     fputs(line,ficparo);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
   }      k3=func(p2)-fx;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    
        p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);      k4=func(p2)-fx;
  fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);      res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]/k/delti[thetaj]/k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
            if(k1*k2*k3*k4 <0.){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        firstime=1;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        kmax=kmax+10;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      }
     puts(line);      if(kmax >=10 || firstime ==1){
     fputs(line,ficparo);        printf("Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
   }        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti*k=%.12e deltj*k=%.12e, xi-de*k=%.12e xj-de*k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
          fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti*k=%.12e deltj*k=%.12e, xi-de*k=%.12e xj-de*k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
       }
    dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;  #ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ
    dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;      v1=hess[thetai][thetai];
       v2=hess[thetaj][thetaj];
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);      cv12=res;
   fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);        /* Computing eigen value of Hessian matrix */
   fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);        lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
        lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){      if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        printf("Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        fprintf(ficlog, "Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
     puts(line);        printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
     fputs(line,ficparo);        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   }      }
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  #endif
     }
   fscanf(ficpar,"starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilav);    return res;
 fprintf(ficparo,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);  }
 fprintf(ficres,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);  
       /* Not done yet: Was supposed to fix if not exactly at the maximum */
   /* double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar) */
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  /* { */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  /*   int i; */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  /*   int l=1, lmax=20; */
     puts(line);  /*   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx; */
     fputs(line,ficparo);  /*   double p2[MAXPARM+1]; */
   }  /*   double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4; */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  /*   int k=0,kmax=10; */
   /*   double l1; */
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);    
   fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);  /*   fx=func(x); */
   fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);  /*   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /\* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum *\/ */
   /*     l1=pow(10,l); */
  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);  /*     delts=delt; */
   /*     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){ */
 /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/  /*       delt = delti*(l1*k); */
  printinggnuplot(fileres,optionfilefiname,optionfile,optionfilegnuplot, agemin,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);  /*       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i]; */
    /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
 /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/  /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
  chdir(path);  /*       k1=func(p2)-fx; */
          
  free_ivector(wav,1,imx);  /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
  free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);  /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
  free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    /*       k2=func(p2)-fx; */
  free_ivector(num,1,n);        
  free_vector(agedc,1,n);  /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
  /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/  /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
  fclose(ficparo);  /*       k3=func(p2)-fx; */
  fclose(ficres);        
   /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/  /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
   /*       k4=func(p2)-fx; */
   printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,optionfile,optionfilehtm,rfileres);  /*       res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /\* Because of L not 2*L *\/ */
   /* #ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ */
    /*       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/  /*       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
    /* #endif */
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");  /*       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)|| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)|| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)){ */
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);  /*      k=kmax; */
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {  /*       } */
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;  /*       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif) || (k4 >khi/nkhif) || (k4 >khi/nkhif)){ /\* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. *\/ */
   }  /*      k=kmax; l=lmax*10; */
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);  /*       } */
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");  /*       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){  */
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");  /*      delts=delt; */
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);  /*       } */
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");  /*     } /\* End loop k *\/ */
    /*   } */
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  /*   delti[theta]=delts; */
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  /*   return res;  */
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  /* } */
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
   k=0;  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
   agebase=agemin;  { 
   agelim=agemaxpar;    int i,imax,j,k; 
   ftolpl=1.e-10;    double big,dum,sum,temp; 
   i1=cptcoveff;    double *vv; 
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}   
     vv=vector(1,n); 
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    *d=1.0; 
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
         k=k+1;      big=0.0; 
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");    } 
            for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){      for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);        sum=a[i][j]; 
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        a[i][j]=sum; 
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);      } 
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");      big=0.0; 
         }      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
       }        sum=a[i][j]; 
     }        for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
   fclose(ficrespl);          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
         a[i][j]=sum; 
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
            big=dum; 
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);          imax=i; 
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {        } 
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;      } 
   }      if (j != imax) { 
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
            dum=a[imax][k]; 
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;          a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/          a[j][k]=dum; 
         } 
   agelim=AGESUP;        *d = -(*d); 
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */        vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */      } 
        indx[j]=imax; 
   k=0;      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      if (j != n) { 
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
       k=k+1;        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");      } 
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    } 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");  ;
          } 
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */  
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */  void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */  { 
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    double sum; 
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);     
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      ip=indx[i]; 
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)      sum=b[ip]; 
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);      b[ip]=b[i]; 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");      if (ii) 
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );      else if (sum) ii=i; 
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      b[i]=sum; 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    } 
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");      sum=b[i]; 
           }      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    } 
         }  } 
     }  
   }  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
   {
   /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/    fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#IMaCh version %s, %s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,copyright, fullversion, strstart);
   }
   fclose(ficrespij);  
   /************ Frequencies ********************/
   void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/  {  /* Some frequencies */
   if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){    
     prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
     if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);    int first;
     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    double *pp, **prop;
     free_vector(weight,1,n);}    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
   else{    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
     erreur=108;    
     printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
   }    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
      strcpy(fileresp,"P_");
     strcat(fileresp,fileresu);
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   strcpy(filerest,"t");      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   strcat(filerest,fileres);      exit(0);
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {    }
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;    freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
   }    j1=0;
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);    
     j=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   strcpy(filerese,"e");  
   strcat(filerese,fileres);    first=1;
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {  
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);    /* for(k1=1; k1<=j ; k1++){ */  /* Loop on covariates */
   }    /*  for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */ /* Now it is 2 */
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);    /*    j1++; */
     for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);          scanf("%d", i);*/
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);          for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
   }            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
         
   k=0;        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){            prop[i][m]=0;
       k=k+1;        
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");        dateintsum=0;
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)        k2cpt=0;
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");          bool=1;
           if  (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)       
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]){
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);                  /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");                bool=0;
                 /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, j1=%d\n", 
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");                  bool,i,z1, z1, Tvaraff[z1],i,covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i],j1,z1,codtabm(j1,z1),
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)                  j1,z1,nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)],j1);*/
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);                /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtabm(7,3)=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");              } 
           }
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);   
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          if (bool==1){
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);              for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;              /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
        varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
                    if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
                 if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                  if (m<lastpass) {
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");                }
                 
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);                  k2cpt++;
         if (popbased==1) {                }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                /*}*/
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];            }
         }          }
                } /* end i */
         fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);         
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {        pstamp(ficresp);
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];        if  (cptcovn>0) {
           }          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
         }          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)          fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];          fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n#");
         fprintf(ficrest," %7.2f (%7.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));        }
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.2f (%7.2f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
         }        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");        
       }        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
     }          if(i==iagemax+3){
   }            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
           }else{
   fclose(ficreseij);            if(first==1){
   fclose(ficresvij);              first=0;
   fclose(ficrest);              printf("See log file for details...\n");
   fclose(ficpar);            }
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
            }
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/            for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
             for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
   strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);          }
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
     exit(0);              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
   }            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);              if(first==1){
                 printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
   k=0;              }
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){            }else{
       k=k+1;              if(first==1)
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);            }
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");          }
        
       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
     }          }       
  }          for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
             pos += pp[jk];
   fclose(ficresvpl);            posprop += prop[jk][i];
           }
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);            if(pos>=1.e-5){
                if(first==1)
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
              }else{
                if(first==1)
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);            }
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);            if( i <= iagemax){
                if(pos>=1.e-5){
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);              }
               else
   if(erreur >0)                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
     printf("End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);            }
   else   printf("End of Imach\n");          }
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */          
            for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
   /*------ End -----------*/              if(first==1)
                 printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
                 fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
  end:              }
 #ifdef windows          if(i <= iagemax)
   /* chdir(pathcd);*/            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
 #endif          if(first==1)
  /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/            printf("Others in log...\n");
  /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
  /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/        }
  /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/        /*}*/
  strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);    }
  strcat(plotcmd," ");    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
  strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);   
  system(plotcmd);    fclose(ficresp);
     free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
 #ifdef windows    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
   while (z[0] != 'q') {    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
     chdir(path);    /* End of Freq */
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");  }
     scanf("%s",z);  
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");  /************ Prevalence ********************/
     else if (z[0] == 'e') {  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
       chdir(path);  {  
       system(optionfilehtm);    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
     }       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
   }    */
 #endif   
 }    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
   
     double **prop;
     double posprop; 
     double  y2; /* in fractional years */
     int iagemin, iagemax;
     int first; /** to stop verbosity which is redirected to log file */
   
     iagemin= (int) agemin;
     iagemax= (int) agemax;
     /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
     prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
     /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
     j1=0;
     
     /*j=cptcoveff;*/
     if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     
     first=1;
     for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){
       /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
         j1++;*/
         
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
           for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
             prop[i][m]=0.0;
        
         for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
           bool=1;
           if  (cptcovn>0) {
             for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
               if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]) 
                 bool=0;
           } 
           if (bool==1) { 
             for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
               y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
               if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
                 if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
                 if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
                 if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
                 if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
                   /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
                   prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                   prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
                 } 
               }
             } /* end selection of waves */
           }
         }
         for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
           for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
             posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
           } 
           
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
             if( i <=  iagemax){ 
               if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
                 probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
               } else{
                 if(first==1){
                   first=0;
                   printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
                 }
               }
             } 
           }/* end jk */ 
         }/* end i */ 
       /*} *//* end i1 */
     } /* end j1 */
     
     /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
     /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
     free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
   }  /* End of prevalence */
   
   /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
   
   void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
   {
     /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
        Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
        mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
        dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
        and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
        */
   
     int i, mi, m;
     /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
        double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
     int first;
     int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
     double sum=0.;
     first=0;
     jmin=100000;
     jmax=-1;
     jmean=0.;
     for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       mi=0;
       m=firstpass;
       while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
         if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
           mw[++mi][i]=m;
         if(m >=lastpass)
           break;
         else
           m++;
       }/* end while */
       if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
         mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
         /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
            /* Only death is a correct wave */
         mw[mi][i]=m;
       }
   
       wav[i]=mi;
       if(mi==0){
         nbwarn++;
         if(first==0){
           printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
           first=1;
         }
         if(first==1){
           fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
         }
       } /* end mi==0 */
     } /* End individuals */
   
     for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
         if (stepm <=0)
           dh[mi][i]=1;
         else{
           if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
             if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
               j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
               if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
               else if(j<0){
                 nberr++;
                 printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                 j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
                 printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
               }
               k=k+1;
               if (j >= jmax){
                 jmax=j;
                 ijmax=i;
               }
               if (j <= jmin){
                 jmin=j;
                 ijmin=i;
               }
               sum=sum+j;
               /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
               /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
             }
           }
           else{
             j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
   /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
   
             k=k+1;
             if (j >= jmax) {
               jmax=j;
               ijmax=i;
             }
             else if (j <= jmin){
               jmin=j;
               ijmin=i;
             }
             /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
             /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
             if(j<0){
               nberr++;
               printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
             }
             sum=sum+j;
           }
           jk= j/stepm;
           jl= j -jk*stepm;
           ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
           if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
             if(jl==0){
               dh[mi][i]=jk;
               bh[mi][i]=0;
             }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
                     * to avoid the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
               dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
               bh[mi][i]=ju;
             }
           }else{
             if(jl <= -ju){
               dh[mi][i]=jk;
               bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
                                    * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
                                    */
             }
             else{
               dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
               bh[mi][i]=ju;
             }
             if(dh[mi][i]==0){
               dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
               bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
               /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
             }
           } /* end if mle */
         }
       } /* end wave */
     }
     jmean=sum/k;
     printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %d) Max=%d (%d) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
    }
   
   /*********** Tricode ****************************/
   void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx, int *Ndum)
   {
     /**< Uses cptcovn+2*cptcovprod as the number of covariates */
     /*      Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  find 'n' in Vn and stores in Tvar. If model=V2+V1 Tvar[1]=2 and Tvar[2]=1 
      * Boring subroutine which should only output nbcode[Tvar[j]][k]
      * Tvar[5] in V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is 2 (V2)
      * nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]= 
     */
   
     int ij=1, k=0, j=0, i=0, maxncov=NCOVMAX;
     int modmaxcovj=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
     int cptcode=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
     int modmincovj=0; /* Modality min of covariates j */
   
   
     cptcoveff=0; 
    
     for (k=1; k <= maxncov; k++) ncodemax[k]=0; /* Horrible constant again replaced by NCOVMAX */
   
     /* Loop on covariates without age and products */
     for (j=1; j<=(cptcovs); j++) { /* From model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4 keeps V1 + V3 = 2 only */
       for (k=-1; k < maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Loop on individuals: reads the data file to get the maximum value of the 
                                  modality of this covariate Vj*/ 
         ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij=0 or 1 or -1. Value of the covariate Tvar[j] for individual i
                                       * If product of Vn*Vm, still boolean *:
                                       * If it was coded 1, 2, 3, 4 should be splitted into 3 boolean variables
                                       * 1 => 0 0 0, 2 => 0 0 1, 3 => 0 1 1, 4=1 0 0   */
         /* Finds for covariate j, n=Tvar[j] of Vn . ij is the
                                         modality of the nth covariate of individual i. */
         if (ij > modmaxcovj)
           modmaxcovj=ij; 
         else if (ij < modmincovj) 
           modmincovj=ij; 
         if ((ij < -1) && (ij > NCOVMAX)){
           printf( "Error: minimal is less than -1 or maximal is bigger than %d. Exiting. \n", NCOVMAX );
           exit(1);
         }else
         Ndum[ij]++; /*counts and stores the occurence of this modality 0, 1, -1*/
         /*  If coded 1, 2, 3 , counts the number of 1 Ndum[1], number of 2, Ndum[2], etc */
         /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
         /* getting the maximum value of the modality of the covariate
            (should be 0 or 1 now) Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is coded 0 and
            female is 1, then modmaxcovj=1.*/
       } /* end for loop on individuals i */
       printf(" Minimal and maximal values of %d th covariate V%d: min=%d max=%d \n", j, Tvar[j], modmincovj, modmaxcovj);
       fprintf(ficlog," Minimal and maximal values of %d th covariate V%d: min=%d max=%d \n", j, Tvar[j], modmincovj, modmaxcovj);
       cptcode=modmaxcovj;
       /* Ndum[0] = frequency of 0 for model-covariate j, Ndum[1] frequency of 1 etc. */
      /*for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {*/
       for (k=modmincovj;  k<=modmaxcovj; k++) { /* k=-1 ? 0 and 1*//* For each value k of the modality of model-cov j */
         printf("Frequencies of covariates %d ie V%d with value %d: %d\n", j, Tvar[j], k, Ndum[k]);
         fprintf(ficlog, "Frequencies of covariates %d ie V%d with value %d: %d\n", j, Tvar[j], k, Ndum[k]);
         if( Ndum[k] != 0 ){ /* Counts if nobody answered modality k ie empty modality, we skip it and reorder */
           if( k != -1){
             ncodemax[j]++;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
                                covariate for which somebody answered excluding 
                                undefined. Usually 2: 0 and 1. */
           }
           ncodemaxwundef[j]++; /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
                                covariate for which somebody answered including 
                                undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
         }
         /* In fact  ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables only) but it could be more for
            historical reasons: 3 if coded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and Ndum[2]=0 */
       } /* Ndum[-1] number of undefined modalities */
   
       /* j is a covariate, n=Tvar[j] of Vn; Fills nbcode */
       /* For covariate j, modalities could be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 
          If Ndum[1]=0, Ndum[2]=0, Ndum[3]= 635, Ndum[4]=0, Ndum[5]=0, Ndum[6]=27, Ndum[7]=125;
          modmincovj=3; modmaxcovj = 7;
          There are only 3 modalities non empty 3, 6, 7 (or 2 if 27 is too few) : ncodemax[j]=3;
          which will be coded 0, 1, 2 which in binary on 2=3-1 digits are 0=00 1=01, 2=10;
          defining two dummy variables: variables V1_1 and V1_2.
          nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
          nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]=0;
          nbcode[Tvar[j]][2]=1;
          nbcode[Tvar[j]][3]=2;
          To be continued (not working yet).
       */
       ij=0; /* ij is similar to i but can jump over null modalities */
       for (i=modmincovj; i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i= 1 to 2 for dichotomous, or from 1 to 3 or from -1 or 0 to 1 currently*/
           if (Ndum[i] == 0) { /* If nobody responded to this modality k */
             break;
           }
           ij++;
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=i;  /* stores the original value of modality i in an array nbcode, ij modality from 1 to last non-nul modality.*/
           cptcode = ij; /* New max modality for covar j */
       } /* end of loop on modality i=-1 to 1 or more */
         
       /*   for (k=0; k<= cptcode; k++) { /\* k=-1 ? k=0 to 1 *\//\* Could be 1 to 4 *\//\* cptcode=modmaxcovj *\/ */
       /*  /\*recode from 0 *\/ */
       /*                               k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex  */
       /*                               then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
       /*                            But if some modality were not used, it is recoded from 0 to a newer modmaxcovj=cptcode *\/ */
       /*  } */
       /*  /\* cptcode = ij; *\/ /\* New max modality for covar j *\/ */
       /*  if (ij > ncodemax[j]) { */
       /*    printf( " Error ij=%d > ncodemax[%d]=%d\n", ij, j, ncodemax[j]);  */
       /*    fprintf(ficlog, " Error ij=%d > ncodemax[%d]=%d\n", ij, j, ncodemax[j]); */
       /*    break; */
       /*  } */
       /*   }  /\* end of loop on modality k *\/ */
     } /* end of loop on model-covariate j. nbcode[Tvarj][1]=0 and nbcode[Tvarj][2]=1 sets the value of covariate j*/  
     
    for (k=-1; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0; 
     
     for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2-nagesqr; i++) { /* -2, cste and age and eventually age*age */ 
      /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/ 
      ij=Tvar[i]; /* Tvar might be -1 if status was unknown */ 
      Ndum[ij]++; /* Might be supersed V1 + V1*age */
    } 
   
    ij=0;
    for (i=0; i<=  maxncov-1; i++) { /* modmaxcovj is unknown here. Only Ndum[2(V2),3(age*V3), 5(V3*V2) 6(V1*V4) */
      /*printf("Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
      if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
        ij++;
        /*printf("diff Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
        Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing (unclear) */
      }else{
          /* Tvaraff[ij]=0; */
      }
    }
    /* ij--; */
    cptcoveff=ij; /*Number of total covariates*/
   
   }
   
   
   /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
   
   void evsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
   
   {
     /* Health expectancies, no variances */
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm;
     int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
     double age, agelim, hf;
     double ***p3mat;
     double eip;
   
     pstamp(ficreseij);
     fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
     fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
         fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
       }
       fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
     }
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
   
     
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
     /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
      * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
      * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
      * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
      * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
      * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
      * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
      * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
      * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
      * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
   
     /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
        nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
        nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
        and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
     /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
        survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
        means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
        you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
        results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     /* If stepm=6 months */
       /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
          in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
       
   /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
       nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
       /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
       /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
       nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
   
       /* If stepm=6 months */
       /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
          in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
       
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepma,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
       
       hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
       
       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
       
       /* Computing expectancies */
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
             eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
             
             /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
   
           }
   
       fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
         eip=0;
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
           fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
         }
         fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
       }
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
       
     }
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     
   }
   
   void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
   
   {
     /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
      to initial status i, ei. .
     */
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
     int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
     double age, agelim, hf;
     double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double *xp, *xm;
     double **gp, **gm;
     double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
     int theta;
   
     double eip, vip;
   
     varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     xm=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     
     pstamp(ficresstdeij);
     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
       fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
     }
     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
   
     pstamp(ficrescveij);
     fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
     fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
         cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
         for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
           for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
             cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
             if(cptj2 <= cptj)
               fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
           }
       }
     fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
     
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
     /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
      * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
      * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
      * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
      * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
      * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
      * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
      * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
      * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
      * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
   
     /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
        nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
        nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
        and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
     /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
        survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
        means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
        you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
        results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
   
     /* If stepm=6 months */
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
     agelim=AGESUP;
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); 
     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
     
     p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
       nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
       /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
       /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
       nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
   
       /* If stepm=6 months */
       /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
          in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
       
       hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
   
       /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
       /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
          decrease memory allocation */
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
           xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
         hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
         hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
     
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
             for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
               gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
               gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
             }
           }
         }
        
         for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
             gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
           }
       }/* End theta */
       
       
       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
       
   
        for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
         for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
           varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
   
        printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
        fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
        for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
         for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
           for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
             for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
               varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
         }
       }
   
       /* Computing expectancies */
       hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
             eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
             
             /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
   
           }
   
       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
         eip=0.;
         vip=0.;
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
           for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
             vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
           fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
         }
         fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
       }
       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
   
       fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
           for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
             for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
               cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
               if(cptj2 <= cptj)
                 fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
             }
         }
       fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
      
     }
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   
     free_vector(xm,1,npar);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
   }
   
   /************ Variance ******************/
    void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
   {
     /* Variance of health expectancies */
     /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
     /* double **newm;*/
     /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
     
     int movingaverage();
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
     int k;
     double *xp;
     double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
     double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
     double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
     double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
     double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
     double ***p3mat;
     double age,agelim, hf;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int theta;
     char digit[4];
     char digitp[25];
   
     char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     if(popbased==1){
       if(mobilav!=0)
         strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-MOBILAV_");
       else strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-NOMOBIL_");
     }
     else 
       strcpy(digitp,"-STABLBASED_");
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"PRMORPREV-"); 
     sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
     /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
     strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
     strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
     strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileresu);
     if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
     }
     printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
     }  
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
     
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");
   /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
   /*   } */
     varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     pstamp(ficresvij);
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
     if(popbased==1)
       fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
     else
       fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
   
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   
     gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
     
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
     /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
        nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
        nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelim. 
        Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) 
        we decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
        survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
        means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
        you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
        results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
     agelim = AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
       p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
       gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   
   
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);
   
         if (popbased==1) {
           if(mobilav ==0){
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
           }else{ /* mobilav */ 
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
           }
         }
     
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
               gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
           }
         }
         /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
            computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
            as a weighted average of prlim.
         */
         for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
             gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }    
         /* end probability of death */
   
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear, ij);
    
         if (popbased==1) {
           if(mobilav ==0){
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
           }else{ /* mobilav */ 
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
           }
         }
   
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
               gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
           }
         }
         /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
            computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
            as a weighted average of prlim.
         */
         for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
            gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }    
         /* end probability of death */
   
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
           }
   
         for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
           gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
         }
   
       } /* End theta */
   
       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
   
       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
     
   
       hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
           vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
   
       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
         for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
           for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
               vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
         }
       }
     
       /* pptj */
       matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
         for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
           varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
       /* end ppptj */
       /*  x centered again */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);
    
       if (popbased==1) {
         if(mobilav ==0){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         }else{ /* mobilav */ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
         }
       }
                
       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
          computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
          as a weighted average of prlim.
       */
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
       }    
       /* end probability of death */
   
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
         }
       } 
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   
       fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
         }
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
       free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     } /* End age */
     free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240"); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter svg size 640, 480");
     /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
     /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
   */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.svg\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";replot;set out;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtm); 
   }  /* end varevsij */
   
   /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
    void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij, char strstart[])
   {
     /* Variance of prevalence limit  for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
     /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
   
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double **mgm, **mgp;
     double age,agelim;
     int theta;
     
     pstamp(ficresvpl);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     
     hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
     agelim = AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
       nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
       p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
       gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
       mgp=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
       mgm=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
       gp=vector(1,nlstate);
       gm=vector(1,nlstate);
   
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij); /* Missing or not useful because 1 year */ 
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
           gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
           mgp[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
         }
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
           gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
           mgm[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
         }
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
       } /* End theta */
   
       trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
       if((int)age==68 ||(int)age== 69 ){
         printf("\nmgm mgp %d ",(int)age);
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           printf("%d ",j);
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             printf("%d %lf %lf",theta,mgm[theta][j],mgp[theta][j]);
           printf("\n ");
         }
       }
       if((int)age==68 ||(int)age== 69 ){
         printf("\n gradg %d ",(int)age);
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           printf("%d ",j);
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             printf("%d %lf ",theta,gradg[theta][j]);
           printf("\n ");
         }
       }
   
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
       if((int)age==68 ||(int)age== 69 ){
       matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
       }else{
       matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
       }
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
   
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
       free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
       free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(mgm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(mgp,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     } /* End age */
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
   }
   
   /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
   void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
   {
     int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
     int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
     int k=0, l;
     int first=1, first1, first2;
     double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double **mu;
     double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
     double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
     int theta;
     char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
     double ***varpij;
   
     strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_"); 
     strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
     if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
     if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
     if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     }
     printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     pstamp(ficresprob);
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
     fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
   
   
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
       }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
    */
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
     varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
     first=1;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4> this page is important in order to visualize confidence intervals and especially correlation between disability and recovery, or more generally, way in and way back.</li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n",optionfilehtmcov, optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated \
   and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
    They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
   It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
   would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
   standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
    Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
    and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
   To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
   
     cov[1]=1;
     /* tj=cptcoveff; */
     tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
     if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     j1=0;
     for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){
       /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ */
       /*j1++;*/
         if  (cptcovn>0) {
           fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
           fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
           
           fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
           fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
           
           
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
           
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
         }
         
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
           cov[2]=age;
           if(nagesqr==1)
             cov[3]= age*age;
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
             cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(j1,k)];
             /*cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(j1,Tvar[k])];*//* j1 1 2 3 4
                                                            * 1  1 1 1 1
                                                            * 2  2 1 1 1
                                                            * 3  1 2 1 1
                                                            */
             /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
           }
           /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
             cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
           
       
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
             
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
             
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
       
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
        
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
               gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
           }
   
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
             for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
               trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
           
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
   
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
           
           k=0;
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
               k=k+1;
               mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
             }
           }
           for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
               varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   
           /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
             for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             }*/
   
           fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
           }
           i=0;
           for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
             for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
               i++;
               fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                 /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
                 fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
                 fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
             }
           }/* end of loop for state */
         } /* end of loop for age */
         free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         
         /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
         /*
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
         */
   
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
         first1=1;first2=2;
         for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
           for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
             if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
             for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
               for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
                 if(l1==k1) continue;
                 i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                 if(i<=j) continue;
                 for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   if ((int)age %5==0){
                     v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
                     mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
                     c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                     /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
                       if(first2==1){
                         first1=0;
                       printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
                       }
                       fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
                       /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
                       /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
                     }
   
                     /* Eigen vectors */
                     v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                     /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                     v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
                     v12=-v21;
                     v22=v11;
                     tnalp=v21/v11;
                     if(first1==1){
                       first1=0;
                       printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
                     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
                     /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
                     /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                     if(first==1){
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Ellipsoids of confidence\n#\n");
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480");
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
    :<a href=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\">\
   %s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }else{
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }/* if first */
                   } /* age mod 5 */
                 } /* end loop age */
                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\";replot;set out;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
               } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
           } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
         /* } */ /* loop covariates */
     }
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fclose(ficresprob);
     fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtmcov);
   }
   
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileresu[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                     int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                     double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                     double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
     int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
      <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
   </ul>");
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
    - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
              jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
              stepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Population projections by age and states: \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"));
   
   fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++){ 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);
            printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);fflush(stdout);
          }
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* aij, bij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Logit model, for example: logit(pij)=log(pij/pii)= aij+ bij age + V1 age + etc. as a function of age: <a href=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">%s_%d-1.svg</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Pij or conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s_%d-2.svg\">%s_%d-2.svg</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s_%d-2.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Iij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too,\
    incidence (rates) are the limit when h tends to zero of the ratio of the probability hPij \
   divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3.svg\">%s_%d-3.svg</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s_%d-3.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1); 
        /* Survival functions (period) in state j */
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions in state %d. Or probability to survive in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,jj1);
        }
        /* State specific survival functions (period) */
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions from state %d in each live state and total.\
    Or probability to survive in various states (1 to %d) being in state %d at different ages.\
    <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, nlstate, cpt, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1);
        }
        /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1);
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) (or area under each survival functions): <a href=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">%s_%d%d.svg</a> <br> \
   <img src=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br> \
    - 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file if optimization has been done (mle != 0).<br> \
   But because parameters are usually highly correlated (a higher incidence of disability \
   and a higher incidence of recovery can give very close observed transition) it might \
   be very useful to look not only at linear confidence intervals estimated from the \
   variances but at the covariance matrix. And instead of looking at the estimated coefficients \
   (parameters) of the logistic regression, it might be more meaningful to visualize the \
   covariance matrix of the one-step probabilities. \
   See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' below. \n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Standard deviation of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"CVE_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"CVE_"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"STDE_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"STDE_"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), e<sup>ij</sup> are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): <a href=\"%s_%d%d.svg\"> %s_%d-%d.svg <br>\
   <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
   true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
    drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
    observed and cahotic prevalences:  <a href=\"%s_%d.svg\">%s_%d.svg<br>\
   <img src=\"%s_%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1);
      /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
     int ng=0;
     int vpopbased;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     /* Contribution to likelihood */
     /* Plot the probability implied in the likelihood */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Contributions to the Likelihood, mle >=1. For mle=4 no interpolation, pure matrix products.\n#\n");
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Likelihood (-2Log(L))\";");
       /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480"); */ /* Too big for svg */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter pngcairo size 640, 480");
   /* nice for mle=4 plot by number of matrix products.
      replot  "rrtest1/toto.txt" u 2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with point lc 1 */
   /* replot exp(p1+p2*x)/(1+exp(p1+p2*x)+exp(p3+p4*x)+exp(p5+p6*x)) t "p12(x)"  */
       /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-dest.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$12):5 t \"All sample, transitions colored by destination\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-ori.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$12):4 t \"All sample, transitions colored by origin\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-p%dj.png\";set ylabel \"Probability for each individual/wave\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),i);
         fprintf(ficgp,"unset log;\n# plot weighted, mean weight should have point size of 0.5\n plot  \"%s\"",subdirf(fileresilk));
         fprintf(ficgp,"  u  2:($4 == %d && $5==%d ? $9 : 1/0):($11/4.):5 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable \\\n",i,1,i,1);
         for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n \"\" u  2:($4 == %d && $5==%d ? $9 : 1/0):($11/4.):5 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable ",i,j,i,j);
         }
         fprintf(ficgp,";\nset out; unset ylabel;\n"); 
       }
       /* unset log; plot  "rrtest1_sorted_4/ILK_rrtest1_sorted_4.txt" u  2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with points lc variable */              
       /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$11):3 t \"All sample, all transitions\" with dots lc variable",subdirf(fileresilk)); */
       /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot  \"%s\" u 2:($3 <= 3 ? -$11 : 1/0):3 t \"First 3 individuals\" with line lc variable", subdirf(fileresilk)); */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;unset log\n");
       /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\"; replot; set out; # bug gnuplot",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'VPL_' files\n");
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
       for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"V_%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \n");
       } /* k1 */
     } /* cpt */
     /*2 eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),k1);
       for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
         if(vpopbased==0)
           fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter svg size 640, 480\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
         else
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot ");
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
           k=2*i;
           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d && $4!=0 ?$4 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),k1-1,k1-1, vpopbased);
           for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
             if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
             else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
           }   
           if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l lt %d, \\\n",i);
           else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l lt %d, \\\n",i-1,i+1);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d && $4!=0 ? $4-$5*2 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),k1-1,k1-1,vpopbased);
           for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
             if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
             else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
           }   
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d && $4!=0 ? $4+$5*2 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),k1-1,k1-1,vpopbased);
           for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
             if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
             else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
           }   
           if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
           else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,\\\n");
         } /* state */
       } /* vpopbased */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;set out \"%s_%d.svg\"; replot; set out; \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),k1); /* Buggy gnuplot */
     } /* k1 */
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
         k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
           /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
           
         } 
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
       }
     }
     
     /* Survival functions (period) from state i in state j by initial state i */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n# Survival functions in state j : 'lij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability to be alive\" \n\
   set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
           if(i==1)
             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
           else
             fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
           fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
           for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++)
             fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1);
           fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"l(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
         } /* nlstate */
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
       } /* end cpt state*/ 
     } /* end covariate */  
   
     /* Survival functions (period) from state i in state j by final state j */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate if any */
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each inital state  */
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n# Survival functions in state j and all livestates from state i by final state j: 'lij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability to be alive\" \n\
   set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate ; j ++){ /* Lived in state j */
           if(j==1)
             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
           else
             fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
           fprintf(ficgp," u (($1==%d && (floor($2)%%5 == 0)) ? ($3):1/0):($%d",k1,k+l);
           /* for (i=2; i<= nlstate+ndeath ; i ++) */
           /*   fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+i-1); */
           fprintf(ficgp,") t \"l(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,j);
         } /* nlstate */
         fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
         fprintf(ficgp," u (($1==%d && (floor($2)%%5 == 0)) ? ($3):1/0):(",k1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate ; j ++){ /* Lived in state j */
           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
           if(j < nlstate)
             fprintf(ficgp,"$%d +",k+l);
           else
             fprintf(ficgp,"$%d) t\"l(%d,.)\" w l",k+l,cpt);
         }
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
       } /* end cpt state*/ 
     } /* end covariate */  
   
     /* CV preval stable (period) for each covariate */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate if any */
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
           if(i==1)
             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
           else
             fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
           fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
           for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++)
             fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1);
           fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
         } /* nlstate */
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
       } /* end cpt state*/ 
     } /* end covariate */  
   
     /* proba elementaires */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#MLE estimated parameters\n#############\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       fprintf(ficgp,"# initial state %d\n",i);
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           fprintf(ficgp,"#   current state %d\n",k);
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f; ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
           }
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
         }
       }
      }
     fprintf(ficgp,"##############\n#\n");
   
     /*goto avoid;*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#Graphics of probabilities or incidences\n#############\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p12/p11)=a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p12/p11)=p1 +p2*age +p3*age*age+ p4*V1+ p5*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p13/p11)=a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p13/p11)=p6 +p7*age +p8*age*age+ p9*V1+ p10*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# p12+p13+p14+p11=1=p11(1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#                      +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age)+...)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# p11=1/(1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#                      +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age)+...)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# p12=exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)/\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#     (1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age))\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a14+b14*age+c14age*age+d14*V1+e14*V1*age)+...)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#\n");
      for(ng=1; ng<=3;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is logit, 2nd is probabilities, third is incidences per year*/
        fprintf(ficgp,"# ng=%d\n",ng);
        fprintf(ficgp,"#   jk=1 to 2^%d=%d\n",cptcoveff,m);
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"#    jk=%d\n",jk);
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jk,ng);
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480 ");
          if (ng==1){
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Value of the logit of the model\"\n"); /* exp(a12+b12*x) could be nice */
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset log y");
          }else if (ng==2){
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Probability\"\n");
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
          }else if (ng==3){
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
          }else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title ");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                switch( ng) {
                case 1:
                  if(nagesqr==0)
                    fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                  else /* nagesqr =1 */
                    fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
                  break;
                case 2: /* ng=2 */
                  if(nagesqr==0)
                    fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                  else /* nagesqr =1 */
                      fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
                  break;
                case 3:
                  if(nagesqr==0)
                    fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                  else /* nagesqr =1 */
                    fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
                  break;
                }
                ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) {
                  /* printf("Tage[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tage[ij], j); */
                  if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
                    if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
                      /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */
                      ij++;
                    }
                  }
                  else
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
                }
                if(ng != 1){
                  fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                  for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){ 
                    if(nagesqr==0)
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                    else /* nagesqr =1 */
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr);
                    
                    ij=1;
                    for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
                      if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
                        if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
                          fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
                          /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */
                          ij++;
                        }
                      }
                      else
                        fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
                    }
                    fprintf(ficgp,")");
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                  if(ng ==2)
                    fprintf(ficgp," t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                  else /* ng= 3 */
                    fprintf(ficgp," t \"i%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                }else{ /* end ng <> 1 */
                  fprintf(ficgp," t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ", k2,k);
                }
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
          fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out\n");
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
    /* avoid: */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"F_"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileresu);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"POP_"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileresu);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32];
     int i,j, k, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz(double x[])
   { 
     double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
   
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           L=L+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
    
     return -2*L*num/sump;
   }
   
   #ifdef GSL
   /******************* Gompertz_f Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz_f(const gsl_vector *v, void *params)
   { 
     double A,B,LL=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     double *x= (double *) v->data;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf\n",x[0],x[1]);
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[0]/YEARM)+x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           LL=LL+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf -2*LL*num/sump=%lf\n",x[0],x[1],-2*LL*num/sump);
    
     return -2*LL*num/sump;
   }
   #endif
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtmlmort(char fileresu[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
     int i,k;
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
     fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
     for (i=1;i<=2;i++) 
       fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.svg\">");
     fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
   
    for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
      fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
    
     fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplotmort(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
   
     int ng;
   
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
   
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
     fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.svg\"\n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set ter svg size 640, 480\n set log y\n"); 
     /* fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n"); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
   
   } 
   
   int readdata(char datafile[], int firstobs, int lastobs, int *imax)
   {
   
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     FILE *fic;
     char dummy[]="                         ";
     int i=0, j=0, n=0;
     int linei, month, year,iout;
     char line[MAXLINE], linetmp[MAXLINE];
     char stra[MAXLINE], strb[MAXLINE];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
   
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(ficlog);return 1;
     }
   
     i=1;
     linei=0;
     while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
       linei=linei+1;
       for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
         if(line[j] == '\t')
           line[j] = ' ';
       }
       for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
         ;
       };
       line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
       if(line[0]=='#'){
         fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         continue;
       }
       trimbb(linetmp,line); /* Trims multiple blanks in line */
       strcpy(line, linetmp);
     
   
       for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb, line, ' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
         /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         s[j][i]=lval;
         
         strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
         }
         else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
           month=99;
           year=9999;
         }else{
           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         anint[j][i]= (double) year; 
         mint[j][i]= (double)month; 
         strcpy(line,stra);
       } /* ENd Waves */
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
       }
       else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       andc[i]=(double) year; 
       moisdc[i]=(double) month; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
       }
       else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.", dummy)) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       if (year==9999) {
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
   
       }
       annais[i]=(double)(year);
       moisnais[i]=(double)(month); 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       errno=0;
       dval=strtod(strb,&endptr); 
       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
         printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       weight[i]=dval; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
           printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
         strcpy(line,stra);
       }  
       lstra=strlen(stra);
        
       if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
         stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
         num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
       }
       else
         num[i]=atol(stra);
       /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
         printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
       
       i=i+1;
     } /* End loop reading  data */
   
     *imax=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
     fclose(fic);
    
     return (0);
     /* endread: */
       printf("Exiting readdata: ");
       fclose(fic);
       return (1);
   
   
   
   }
   void removespace(char *str) {
     char *p1 = str, *p2 = str;
     do
       while (*p2 == ' ')
         p2++;
     while (*p1++ == *p2++);
   }
   
   int decodemodel ( char model[], int lastobs) /**< This routine decode the model and returns:
      * Model  V1+V2+V3+V8+V7*V8+V5*V6+V8*age+V3*age+age*age
      * - nagesqr = 1 if age*age in the model, otherwise 0.
      * - cptcovt total number of covariates of the model nbocc(+)+1 = 8 excepting constant and age and age*age
      * - cptcovn or number of covariates k of the models excluding age*products =6 and age*age
      * - cptcovage number of covariates with age*products =2
      * - cptcovs number of simple covariates
      * - Tvar[k] is the id of the kth covariate Tvar[1]@12 {1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 8, 3, 7, 8, 5, 6}, thus Tvar[5=V7*V8]=10
      *     which is a new column after the 9 (ncovcol) variables. 
      * - if k is a product Vn*Vm covar[k][i] is filled with correct values for each individual
      * - Tprod[l] gives the kth covariates of the product Vn*Vm l=1 to cptcovprod-cptcovage
      *    Tprod[1]@2 {5, 6}: position of first product V7*V8 is 5, and second V5*V6 is 6.
      * - Tvard[k]  p Tvard[1][1]@4 {7, 8, 5, 6} for V7*V8 and V5*V6 .
    */
   {
     int i, j, k, ks;
     int  j1, k1, k2;
     char modelsav[80];
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80];
     char *strpt;
   
     /*removespace(model);*/
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=0, k2=-1, ks=0, cptcovn=0;
       if (strstr(model,"AGE") !=0){
         printf("Error. AGE must be in lower case 'age' model=1+age+%s. ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. AGE must be in lower case model=1+age+%s. ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       if (strstr(model,"v") !=0){
         printf("Error. 'v' must be in upper case 'V' model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. 'v' must be in upper case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if ((strpt=strstr(model,"age*age")) !=0){
         printf(" strpt=%s, model=%s\n",strpt, model);
         if(strpt != model){
         printf("Error in model: 'model=%s'; 'age*age' should in first place before other covariates\n \
    'model=1+age+age*age+V1.' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age.', please swap as well as \n \
    corresponding column of parameters.\n",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error in model: 'model=%s'; 'age*age' should in first place before other covariates\n \
    'model=1+age+age*age+V1.' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age.', please swap as well as \n \
    corresponding column of parameters.\n",model); fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
   
         nagesqr=1;
         if (strstr(model,"+age*age") !=0)
           substrchaine(modelsav, model, "+age*age");
         else if (strstr(model,"age*age+") !=0)
           substrchaine(modelsav, model, "age*age+");
         else 
           substrchaine(modelsav, model, "age*age");
       }else
         nagesqr=0;
       if (strlen(modelsav) >1){
         j=nbocc(modelsav,'+'); /**< j=Number of '+' */
         j1=nbocc(modelsav,'*'); /**< j1=Number of '*' */
         cptcovs=j+1-j1; /**<  Number of simple covariates V1+V1*age+V3 +V3*V4+age*age=> V1 + V3 =2  */
         cptcovt= j+1; /* Number of total covariates in the model, not including
                      * cst, age and age*age 
                      * V1+V1*age+ V3 + V3*V4+age*age=> 4*/
                     /* including age products which are counted in cptcovage.
                     * but the covariates which are products must be treated 
                     * separately: ncovn=4- 2=2 (V1+V3). */
         cptcovprod=j1; /**< Number of products  V1*V2 +v3*age = 2 */
         cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age: V3*V4 =1  */
   
       
         /*   Design
          *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9 Weight
          *  <          ncovcol=8                >
          * Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8
          *   k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8
          *  cptcovn number of covariates (not including constant and age ) = # of + plus 1 = 7+1=8
          *  covar[k,i], value of kth covariate if not including age for individual i:
          *       covar[1][i]= (V2), covar[4][i]=(V3), covar[8][i]=(V8)
          *  Tvar[k] # of the kth covariate:  Tvar[1]=2  Tvar[4]=3 Tvar[8]=8
          *       if multiplied by age: V3*age Tvar[3=V3*age]=3 (V3) Tvar[7]=8 and 
          *  Tage[++cptcovage]=k
          *       if products, new covar are created after ncovcol with k1
          *  Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; # of the kth covariate product:  Tvar[5]=ncovcol+1=10  Tvar[6]=ncovcol+1=11
          *  Tprod[k1]=k; Tprod[1]=5 Tprod[2]= 6; gives the position of the k1th product
          *  Tvard[k1][1]=m Tvard[k1][2]=m; Tvard[1][1]=5 (V5) Tvard[1][2]=6 Tvard[2][1]=7 (V7) Tvard[2][2]=8
          *  Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
          *  Tvar[8+1]=5;Tvar[8+2]=6;Tvar[8+3]=7;Tvar[8+4]=8 inverted
          *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9  V10  V11
          *  <          ncovcol=8                >
          *       Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8    d1   d1   d2  d2
          *          k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8    9   10   11  12
          *     Tvar[k]= 2    1      3       3    10      11      8        8    5    6    7   8
          * p Tvar[1]@12={2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
          * p Tprod[1]@2={                         6, 5}
          *p Tvard[1][1]@4= {7, 8, 5, 6}
          * covar[k][i]= V2   V1      ?      V3    V5*V6?   V7*V8?  ?       V8   
          *  cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
          *How to reorganize?
          * Model V1 + V2 + V3 + V8 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V3*age + V8*age
          * Tvars {2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
          *       {2,   1,     4,      8,    5,      6,     3,       7}
          * Struct []
          */
   
         /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
         /* j is the number of + signs in the model V1+V2+V3 j=2 i=3 to 1 */
         /*   modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4  */
         /*        k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tage[cptcovage=1]=4 */
         /*        k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4) */
         /*        k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1) */
         /*        k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2) */
         /*        k=5 Tvar[5] */
         /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) { */
         /*        cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
         /*        } */
         /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k])]]*cov[2]; */
         /*
          * Treating invertedly V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is as if written V2*V4 +V3*age + V1 + V2 */
         for(k=cptcovt; k>=1;k--) /**< Number of covariates */
           Tvar[k]=0;
         cptcovage=0;
         for(k=1; k<=cptcovt;k++){ /* Loop on total covariates of the model */
           cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+' 
                                            modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
           if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
           /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
           /*scanf("%d",i);*/
           if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
             cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc  Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
             if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
               /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
               cptcovprod--;
               cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
               Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);  /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2; V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1 */
               cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
               Tage[cptcovage]=k;  /* Tvar[4]=3, Tage[1] = 4 or V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1, Tage[1]=2 */
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
             } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
               cptcovprod--;
               cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
               Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
               cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=k;
             } else {  /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2  strb=V3*V2*/
               /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
               cptcovn++;
               cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
               cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
               Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
                                      because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
                                      ncovcol + k1
                                      If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
                                      Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
               cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
               Tprod[k1]=k;  /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2  */
               Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
               Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
               k2=k2+2;
               Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
               Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];  /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
               for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
                 /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
                    covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
                 covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
               }
             } /* End age is not in the model */
           } /* End if model includes a product */
           else { /* no more sum */
             /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
             /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
             cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
             ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
             cptcovn++;
             Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
           }
           strcpy(modelsav,stra);  /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
           /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
             scanf("%d",i);*/
         } /* end of loop + on total covariates */
       } /* end if strlen(modelsave == 0) age*age might exist */
     } /* end if strlen(model == 0) */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);*/
   
   
     return (0); /* with covar[new additional covariate if product] and Tage if age */ 
     /*endread:*/
       printf("Exiting decodemodel: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
   {
     int i, m;
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           *nberr = *nberr + 1;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           (*nberr)++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0){
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999){
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               }else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
             } /* agedc > 0 */
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] < *agemin){ 
               *agemin=agev[m][i];
               printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemin);
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >*agemax){
               *agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" Max anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           (*nberr)++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           return 1;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax); 
   
     return (0);
    /* endread:*/
       printf("Exiting calandcheckages: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
   /*printf("Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
   /*fprintf(ficlog, "Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
   //#include "stdafx.h"
   //#include <stdio.h>
   //#include <tchar.h>
   //#include <windows.h>
   //#include <iostream>
   typedef BOOL(WINAPI *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS) (HANDLE, PBOOL);
   
   LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
   
   BOOL IsWow64()
   {
           BOOL bIsWow64 = FALSE;
   
           //typedef BOOL (APIENTRY *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
           //  (HANDLE, PBOOL);
   
           //LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
   
           HMODULE module = GetModuleHandle(_T("kernel32"));
           const char funcName[] = "IsWow64Process";
           fnIsWow64Process = (LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
                   GetProcAddress(module, funcName);
   
           if (NULL != fnIsWow64Process)
           {
                   if (!fnIsWow64Process(GetCurrentProcess(),
                           &bIsWow64))
                           //throw std::exception("Unknown error");
                           printf("Unknown error\n");
           }
           return bIsWow64 != FALSE;
   }
   #endif
   
   void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
    {
      /* #include "syscompilerinfo.h"*/
      /* command line Intel compiler 32bit windows, XP compatible:*/
      /* /GS /W3 /Gy
         /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O2 /Fd"Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" /D "NDEBUG" /D
         "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_USING_V110_SDK71_" /D "_UNICODE" /D
         "UNICODE" /Qipo /Zc:forScope /Gd /Oi /MT /Fa"Release\" /EHsc /nologo
         /Fo"Release\" /Qprof-dir "Release\" /Fp"Release\IMaCh.pch"
      */ 
      /* 64 bits */
      /*
        /GS /W3 /Gy
        /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O2 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" /D "NDEBUG"
        /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo /Zc:forScope
        /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir
        "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch" */
      /* Optimization are useless and O3 is slower than O2 */
      /*
        /GS /W3 /Gy /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O3 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" 
        /D "NDEBUG" /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo 
        /Zc:forScope /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo /Qparallel 
        /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch" 
      */
      /* Link is */ /* /OUT:"visual studio
         2013\Projects\IMaCh\Release\IMaCh.exe" /MANIFEST /NXCOMPAT
         /PDB:"visual studio
         2013\Projects\IMaCh\Release\IMaCh.pdb" /DYNAMICBASE
         "kernel32.lib" "user32.lib" "gdi32.lib" "winspool.lib"
         "comdlg32.lib" "advapi32.lib" "shell32.lib" "ole32.lib"
         "oleaut32.lib" "uuid.lib" "odbc32.lib" "odbccp32.lib"
         /MACHINE:X86 /OPT:REF /SAFESEH /INCREMENTAL:NO
         /SUBSYSTEM:CONSOLE",5.01" /MANIFESTUAC:"level='asInvoker'
         uiAccess='false'"
         /ManifestFile:"Release\IMaCh.exe.intermediate.manifest" /OPT:ICF
         /NOLOGO /TLBID:1
      */
   #if defined __INTEL_COMPILER
   #if defined(__GNUC__)
           struct utsname sysInfo;  /* For Intel on Linux and OS/X */
   #endif
   #elif defined(__GNUC__) 
   #ifndef  __APPLE__
   #include <gnu/libc-version.h>  /* Only on gnu */
   #endif
      struct utsname sysInfo;
      int cross = CROSS;
      if (cross){
              printf("Cross-");
              if(logged) fprintf(ficlog, "Cross-");
      }
   #endif
   
   #include <stdint.h>
   
      printf("Compiled with:");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog,"Compiled with:");
   #if defined(__clang__)
      printf(" Clang/LLVM");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Clang/LLVM");       /* Clang/LLVM. ---------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__ICC) || defined(__INTEL_COMPILER)
      printf(" Intel ICC/ICPC");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Intel ICC/ICPC");/* Intel ICC/ICPC. ------------------------------------------ */
   #endif
   #if defined(__GNUC__) || defined(__GNUG__)
      printf(" GNU GCC/G++");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," GNU GCC/G++");/* GNU GCC/G++. --------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__HP_cc) || defined(__HP_aCC)
      printf(" Hewlett-Packard C/aC++");if(logged)fprintf(fcilog," Hewlett-Packard C/aC++"); /* Hewlett-Packard C/aC++. ---------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__IBMC__) || defined(__IBMCPP__)
      printf(" IBM XL C/C++"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," IBM XL C/C++");/* IBM XL C/C++. -------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
      printf(" Microsoft Visual Studio");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Microsoft Visual Studio");/* Microsoft Visual Studio. --------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__PGI)
      printf(" Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");/* Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP. ------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__SUNPRO_C) || defined(__SUNPRO_CC)
      printf(" Oracle Solaris Studio");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Oracle Solaris Studio\n");/* Oracle Solaris Studio. ----------------------------------- */
   #endif
      printf(" for "); if (logged) fprintf(ficlog, " for ");
      
   // http://stackoverflow.com/questions/4605842/how-to-identify-platform-compiler-from-preprocessor-macros
   #ifdef _WIN32 // note the underscore: without it, it's not msdn official!
       // Windows (x64 and x86)
      printf("Windows (x64 and x86) ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Windows (x64 and x86) ");
   #elif __unix__ // all unices, not all compilers
       // Unix
      printf("Unix ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Unix ");
   #elif __linux__
       // linux
      printf("linux ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"linux ");
   #elif __APPLE__
       // Mac OS, not sure if this is covered by __posix__ and/or __unix__ though..
      printf("Mac OS ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Mac OS ");
   #endif
   
   /*  __MINGW32__   */
   /*  __CYGWIN__   */
   /* __MINGW64__  */
   // http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/b0084kay.aspx
   /* _MSC_VER  //the Visual C++ compiler is 17.00.51106.1, the _MSC_VER macro evaluates to 1700. Type cl /?  */
   /* _MSC_FULL_VER //the Visual C++ compiler is 15.00.20706.01, the _MSC_FULL_VER macro evaluates to 150020706 */
   /* _WIN64  // Defined for applications for Win64. */
   /* _M_X64 // Defined for compilations that target x64 processors. */
   /* _DEBUG // Defined when you compile with /LDd, /MDd, and /MTd. */
   
   #if UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffff
      printf(" 32-bit"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," 32-bit");/* 32-bit */
   #elif UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffffffffffff
      printf(" 64-bit"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," 64-bit");/* 64-bit */
   #else
      printf(" wtf-bit"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," wtf-bit");/* wtf */
   #endif
   
   #if defined(__GNUC__)
   # if defined(__GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
   #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
                               + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100 \
                               + __GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
   # else
   #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
                               + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100)
   # endif
      printf(" using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
      if(logged) fprintf(ficlog, " using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
   
      if (uname(&sysInfo) != -1) {
        printf("Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
            if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n ",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
      }
      else
         perror("uname() error");
      //#ifndef __INTEL_COMPILER 
   #if !defined (__INTEL_COMPILER) && !defined(__APPLE__)
      printf("GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version()); 
      if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version());
   #endif
   #endif
   
      //   void main()
      //   {
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
      if (IsWow64()){
              printf("\nThe program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
              if (logged) fprintf(ficlog, "\nThe program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
      }
      else{
              printf("\nThe program is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
              if (logged) fprintf(ficlog, "\nThe programm is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
      }
      //      printf("\nPress Enter to continue...");
      //      getchar();
      //   }
   
   #endif
      
   
    }
   
    int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear){
     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
     int i, j, k, i1 ;
     /* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */
     double age, agebase, agelim;
     double tot;
   
     strcpy(filerespl,"PL_");
     strcat(filerespl,fileresu);
     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
     }
     printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     pstamp(ficrespl);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence. Precision given by ftolpl=%g \n", ftolpl);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
       /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
   
       agebase=ageminpar;
       agelim=agemaxpar;
   
       i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
       if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */
         //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           /* to clean */
           //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtabm(cptcod,cptcov));
           fprintf(ficrespl,"#******");
           printf("#******");
           fprintf(ficlog,"#******");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
             printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
             fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
           }
           fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
           printf("******\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
           }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"  %d-%d   ",i,i);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"Total Years_to_converge\n");
           
           for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
           /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, ncvyear, k);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
             tot=0.;
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
               tot +=  prlim[i][i];
               fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
             }
             fprintf(ficrespl," %.3f %d\n", tot, *ncvyear);
           } /* Age */
           /* was end of cptcod */
       } /* cptcov */
           return 0;
   }
   
   int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
   
     int stepsize;
     int agelim;
     int hstepm;
     int nhstepm;
     int h, i, i1, j, k;
   
     double agedeb;
     double ***p3mat;
   
       strcpy(filerespij,"PIJ_");  strcat(filerespij,fileresu);
       if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
       }
       printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
       stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
       /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
       agelim=AGESUP;
       hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
       /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
       pstamp(ficrespij);
       fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
       i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
      /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
      /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
      /*   k=k+1;  */
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
         
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
           
           /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
           
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             /*agedebphstep = agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm;*/
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
         }
         /*}*/
       }
           return 0;
   }
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
   #ifdef GSL
     const gsl_multimin_fminimizer_type *T;
     size_t iteri = 0, it;
     int rval = GSL_CONTINUE;
     int status = GSL_SUCCESS;
     double ssval;
   #endif
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;
     int ncvyearnp=0;
     int *ncvyear=&ncvyearnp; /* Number of years needed for the period prevalence to converge */
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int num_filled;
     int itimes;
     int NDIM=2;
     int vpopbased=0;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     struct stat info;
     double agedeb=0.;
   
     double ageminpar=AGEOVERFLOW,agemin=AGEOVERFLOW, agemaxpar=-AGEOVERFLOW, agemax=-AGEOVERFLOW;
   
     double fret;
     double dum=0.; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
   
     char line[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE];
   
     char model[MAXLINE], modeltemp[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE]; 
     char *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int c,  h , cpt, c2;
     int jl=0;
     int i1, j1, jk, stepsize=0;
     int count=0;
   
     int *tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm=0, nhstepm=0;
     int agemortsup;
     float  sumlpop=0.;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage=0, fage=110., age, agelim=0., agebase=0.;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double **hess; /* Hessian matrix */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
   
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
     double **ximort;
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
     int *dcwave;
   
     char z[1]="c";
   
     /*char  *strt;*/
     char strtend[80];
   
   
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     rstart_time = time(NULL);  
     /*  (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);*/
     start_time = *localtime(&rstart_time);
     curr_time=start_time;
     /*tml = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec);*/
     /* strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tml)); */
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&start_time));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tm_sec = tp.tm_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tm_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
   #ifdef WIN32
     _getcwd(pathcd, size);
   #else
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   #endif
     syscompilerinfo(0);
     printf("\nIMaCh version %s, %s\n%s",version, copyright, fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       if(!fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin)){
         printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
         goto end;
       }
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(i >= 1 && pathr[i-1]==' ') {/* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
       }
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if( i==0 ){
         printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
         goto end;
       }
       for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
         printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
         while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
         printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
         strcpy (pathtot, val);
         if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
       }
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
     split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
    /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
     /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   #ifdef WIN32
     _chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
   #else
     chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
   #endif
     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Directory already exists (or can't create it) %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Main Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Version %s %s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname='%s'\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     syscompilerinfo(1);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileresu, optionfilefiname); /* Without r in front */
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
     strcat(fileresu,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /* Main ---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fflush(ficlog);
       /* goto end; */
       exit(70); 
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileresu);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
   
       /* First parameter line */
     while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
       /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
       if (line[0] == '#') {
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
         continue;
       }else
         break;
     }
     if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\n", \
                           title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass)) !=EOF){
       if (num_filled != 5) {
         printf("Should be 5 parameters\n");
       }
       numlinepar++;
       printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass);
     }
     /* Second parameter line */
     while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
       /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
       if (line[0] == '#') {
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
         continue;
       }else
         break;
     }
     if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"ftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n", \
                           &ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate, &ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt)) !=EOF){
       if (num_filled != 8) {
         printf("Not 8\n");
       }
       printf("ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n",ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);
     }
     /* ftolpl=6*ftol*1.e5; /\* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit *\/ */
     ftolpl=6.e-3; /* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */
     /* Third parameter line */
     while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
       /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
       if (line[0] == '#') {
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
         continue;
       }else
         break;
     }
     if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"model=1+age%[^.\n]", model)) !=EOF){
       if (num_filled == 0)
               model[0]='\0';
       else if (num_filled != 1){
         printf("ERROR %d: Model should be at minimum 'model=1+age.' %s\n",num_filled, line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"ERROR %d: Model should be at minimum 'model=1+age.' %s\n",num_filled, line);
         model[0]='\0';
         goto end;
       }
       else{
         if (model[0]=='+'){
           for(i=1; i<=strlen(model);i++)
             modeltemp[i-1]=model[i];
           strcpy(model,modeltemp); 
         }
       }
       /* printf(" model=1+age%s modeltemp= %s, model=%s\n",model, modeltemp, model);fflush(stdout); */
       printf("model=1+age+%s\n",model);fflush(stdout);
     }
     /* fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=1+age+%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model); */
     /* numlinepar=numlinepar+3; /\* In general *\/ */
     /* printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model); */
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     /* if(model[0]=='#'|| model[0]== '\0'){ */
     if(model[0]=='#'){
       printf("Error in 'model' line: model should start with 'model=1+age+' and end with '.' \n \
    'model=1+age+.' or 'model=1+age+V1.' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age.' or \n \
    'model=1+age+V1+V2.' or 'model=1+age+V1+V2+V1*V2.' etc. \n");          \
       if(mle != -1){
         printf("Fix the model line and run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n");
         exit(1);
       }
     }
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       if(line[1]=='q'){ /* This #q will quit imach (the answer is q) */
         z[0]=line[1];
       }
       /* printf("****line [1] = %c \n",line[1]); */
       fputs(line, stdout);
       //puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
     /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
        v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
     */
     if (strlen(model)>1) 
       ncovmodel=2+nbocc(model,'+')+1; /*Number of variables including intercept and age = cptcovn + intercept + age : v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes 5+2=7,age*age makes 3*/
     else
       ncovmodel=2; /* Constant and age */
     nforce= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate; /* Number of forces ij from state i to j */
     npar= nforce*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters like aij*/
     if(npar >MAXPARM || nlstate >NLSTATEMAX || ndeath >NDEATHMAX || ncovmodel>NCOVMAX){
       printf("Too complex model for current IMaCh: npar=(nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel=%d >= %d(MAXPARM) or nlstate=%d >= %d(NLSTATEMAX) or ndeath=%d >= %d(NDEATHMAX) or ncovmodel=(k+age+#of+signs)=%d(NCOVMAX) >= %d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Too complex model for current IMaCh: %d >=%d(MAXPARM) or %d >=%d(NLSTATEMAX) or %d >=%d(NDEATHMAX) or %d(NCOVMAX) >=%d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fflush(stdout);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     delti=delti3[1][1];
     /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You chose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
       exit(0);
     }
     else if(mle==-3) { /* Main Wizard */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     }
     else{
       /* Read guessed parameters */
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         j=0;
         for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           if(jj==i) continue;
           j++;
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1 != i) || (j1 != jj)){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
   It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
   run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           if(mle==1)
             printf("%1d%1d",i,jj);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,jj);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
             if(mle==1){
               printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             }
             else
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           if(mle==1)
             printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         }
       }  
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads scales values */
       p=param[1][1];
       
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ( (i1-i) * (j1-j) != 0){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
             printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
       }
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads covariance matrix */
       delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
       /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;
         
       /* Scans npar lines */
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
         count=fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d%1d",&i1,&j1,&jk);
         if(count != 3){
           printf("Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
   This is probably because your covariance matrix doesn't \n  contain exactly %d lines corresponding to your model line '1+age+%s'.\n\
   Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",optionfile,numlinepar, i1,j1,jk, npar, model);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
   This is probably because your covariance matrix doesn't \n  contain exactly %d lines corresponding to your model line '1+age+%s'.\n\
   Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",optionfile,numlinepar, i1,j1,jk, npar, model);
           exit(1);
         }else
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
         for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           }
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
       /* End of read covariance matrix npar lines */
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       
       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
       strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
       strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
       if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
     }    /* End of mle != -3 */
   
     /*  Main data
      */
     n= lastobs;
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n); /* s[i][j] health state for wave i and individual j */ 
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Number of code per covariate; if O and 1 only, 2**ncov; V1+V2+V3+V4=>16 */
     ncodemaxwundef=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Number of code per covariate; if - 1 O and 1 only, 2**ncov; V1+V2+V3+V4=>16 */
   
     /* Reads data from file datafile */
     if (readdata(datafile, firstobs, lastobs, &imx)==1)
       goto end;
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
       /*    modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4 
           k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tag[cptcovage=1]=4
           k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4)
           k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1)
           k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2)
       */
     Tvar=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Was 15 changed to NCOVMAX. */
     /*  V2+V1+V4+age*V3 is a model with 4 covariates (3 plus signs). 
         For each model-covariate stores the data-covariate id. Tvar[1]=2, Tvar[2]=1, Tvar[3]=4, 
         Tvar[4=age*V3] is 3 and 'age' is recorded in Tage.
     */
     /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
       because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
       ncovcol + k1
       If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
       Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 etc */
     Tprod=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the position of a product */
     /* Tprod[k1=1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
        if  V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2   TProd[k1=2]=5 (V3*V2)
     */
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Unclear */
     Tvard=imatrix(1,NCOVMAX,1,2); /* n=Tvard[k1][1]  and m=Tvard[k1][2] gives the couple n,m of the k1 th product Vn*Vm
                               * For V3*V2 (in V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2), V3*V2 position is 2nd. 
                               * Tvard[k1=2][1]=3 (V3) Tvard[k1=2][2]=2(V2) */
     Tage=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the covariate id of covariates associated with age: V2 + V1 + age*V4 + V3*age
                            4 covariates (3 plus signs)
                            Tage[1=V3*age]= 4; Tage[2=age*V4] = 3
                         */  
   
   /* Main decodemodel */
   
   
     if(decodemodel(model, lastobs) == 1)
       goto end;
   
     if((double)(lastobs-imx)/(double)imx > 1.10){
       nbwarn++;
       printf("Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
     }
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights. We can have weights different from 1 but want no weight*/
       for(i=1;i<=imx;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* changed to imx */
     }
   
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     if(calandcheckages(imx, maxwav, &agemin, &agemax, &nberr, &nbwarn) == 1)
       goto end;
   
   
     agegomp=(int)agemin;
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
     /* */
     
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
     /* */
    
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     Ndum =ivector(-1,NCOVMAX);  
     if (ncovmodel-nagesqr > 2 ) /* That is if covariate other than cst, age and age*age */
       tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
     /* Nbcode gives the value of the lth modality of jth covariate, in
        V2+V1*age, there are 3 covariates Tvar[2]=1 (V1).*/
     /* 1 to ncodemax[j] is the maximum value of this jth covariate */
   
     /*  codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);*/ /* codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) */
     /*printf(" codtab[1,1],codtab[100,10]=%d,%d\n", codtab[1][1],codtabm(100,10));*/
     /* codtab gives the value 1 or 2 of the hth combination of k covariates (1 or 2).*/
     h=0;
   
   
     /*if (cptcovn > 0) */
         
    
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
             /**< codtab(h,k)  k   = codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) + 1
              * For k=4 covariates, h goes from 1 to 2**k
              * codtabm(h,k)=  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
              *     h\k   1     2     3     4
              *______________________________  
              *     1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1
              *     2     2     1     1     1
              *     3 i=2 1     2     1     1
              *     4     2     2     1     1
              *     5 i=3 1 i=2 1     2     1
              *     6     2     1     2     1
              *     7 i=4 1     2     2     1
              *     8     2     2     2     1
              *     9 i=5 1 i=3 1 i=2 1     2
              *    10     2     1     1     2
              *    11 i=6 1     2     1     2
              *    12     2     2     1     2
              *    13 i=7 1 i=4 1     2     2    
              *    14     2     1     2     2
              *    15 i=8 1     2     2     2
              *    16     2     2     2     2
              */
     /* /\* for(h=1; h <=100 ;h++){  *\/ */
     /*   /\* printf("h=%2d ", h); *\/ */
     /*    /\* for(k=1; k <=10; k++){ *\/ */
     /*      /\* printf("k=%d %d ",k,codtabm(h,k)); *\/ */
     /*    /\*   codtab[h][k]=codtabm(h,k); *\/ */
     /*    /\* } *\/ */
     /*    /\* printf("\n"); *\/ */
     /* } */
     /* for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /\* scans any effective covariate *\/ */
     /*   for(i=1; i <=pow(2,cptcoveff-k);i++){ /\* i=1 to 8/1=8; i=1 to 8/2=4; i=1 to 8/8=1 *\/  */
     /*     for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){ /\* For each modality of this covariate ncodemax=2*\/ */
     /*    for(cpt=1; cpt <=pow(2,k-1); cpt++){  /\* cpt=1 to 8/2**(3+1-1 or 3+1-3) =1 or 4 *\/  */
     /*      h++; */
     /*      if (h>m)  */
     /*        h=1; */
     /*      codtab[h][k]=j; */
     /*      /\* codtab[12][3]=1; *\/ */
     /*      /\*codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;*\/ */
     /*      /\* printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d Tvar[k]=%d codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k],codtab[h][Tvar[k]]); *\/ */
     /*    }  */
     /*     } */
     /*   } */
     /* }  */
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){  */
     /*    for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){ */
     /*      printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff); */
     /*    } */
     /*    printf("\n"); */
     /* } */
     /*   scanf("%d",i);*/
   
    free_ivector(Ndum,-1,NCOVMAX);
   
   
       
     /* Initialisation of ----------- gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-MORT_");
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
   
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# IMaCh-%s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       //fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
       fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
   
   
     /* Initialisation of --------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilehtm,"-MORT_");
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);
       exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
             optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"utf-8\"/><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"7\"><a href=http:/euroreves.ined.fr/imach>IMaCh for Interpolated Markov Chain</a> </font><br>\n<font size=\"3\">Sponsored by Copyright (C)  2002-2015 <a href=http://www.ined.fr>INED</a>-EUROREVES-Institut de longévité-Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciences 日本学術振興会 (<a href=https://www.jsps.go.jp/english/e-grants/>Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121</a>) - <a href=https://software.intel.com/en-us>Intel Software 2015</a></font><br>  \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   <font size=\"2\">IMaCh-%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
   #ifdef WIN32
     _chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
   #else
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
   #endif
             
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
     /* For mortality only */
     if (mle==-3){
       ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); 
       /*     ximort=gsl_matrix_alloc(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); */
       cens=ivector(1,n);
       ageexmed=vector(1,n);
       agecens=vector(1,n);
       dcwave=ivector(1,n);
    
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         dcwave[i]=-1;
         for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
           if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
             dcwave[i]=m;
             /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
             break;
           }
       }
   
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
         if (wav[i]>0){
           ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
           j=wav[i];
           agecens[i]=1.; 
   
           if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
             agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
             cens[i]= 1;
           }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1) 
             cens[i]= -1;
           if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
             cens[i]=0 ;
         }
         else cens[i]=-1;
       }
       
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
       
       /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
       /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
       
       
   #ifdef GSL
       printf("GSL optimization\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #else
       printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #endif
       strcpy(filerespow,"POW-MORT_"); 
       strcat(filerespow,fileresu);
       if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       }
   #ifdef GSL
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# GSL optimization\n# iter -2*LL");
   #else
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
   #endif
       /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
       */
       fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
   #ifdef GSL
       /* gsl starts here */ 
       T = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_nmsimplex;
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer *sfm = NULL;
       gsl_vector *ss, *x;
       gsl_multimin_function minex_func;
   
       /* Initial vertex size vector */
       ss = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (ss == NULL){
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for ss", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
       /* Set all step sizes to 1 */
       gsl_vector_set_all (ss, 0.001);
   
       /* Starting point */
       
       x = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (x == NULL){
         gsl_vector_free(ss);
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for x", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
     
       /* Initialize method and iterate */
       /*     p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083; */
       /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 0, 0.0268); */
       /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 1, 0.083); */
       gsl_vector_set(x, 0, p[1]);
       gsl_vector_set(x, 1, p[2]);
   
       minex_func.f = &gompertz_f;
       minex_func.n = NDIM;
       minex_func.params = (void *)&p; /* ??? */
       
       sfm = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_alloc (T, NDIM);
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_set (sfm, &minex_func, x, ss);
       
       printf("Iterations beginning .....\n\n");
       printf("Iter. #    Intercept       Slope     -Log Likelihood     Simplex size\n");
   
       iteri=0;
       while (rval == GSL_CONTINUE){
         iteri++;
         status = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_iterate(sfm);
         
         if (status) printf("error: %s\n", gsl_strerror (status));
         fflush(0);
         
         if (status) 
           break;
         
         rval = gsl_multimin_test_size (gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm), 1e-6);
         ssval = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm);
         
         if (rval == GSL_SUCCESS)
           printf ("converged to a local maximum at\n");
         
         printf("%5d ", iteri);
         for (it = 0; it < NDIM; it++){
           printf ("%10.5f ", gsl_vector_get (sfm->x, it));
         }
         printf("f() = %-10.5f ssize = %.7f\n", sfm->fval, ssval);
       }
       
       printf("\n\n Please note: Program should be run many times with varying starting points to detemine global maximum\n\n");
       
       gsl_vector_free(x); /* initial values */
       gsl_vector_free(ss); /* inital step size */
       for (it=0; it<NDIM; it++){
         p[it+1]=gsl_vector_get(sfm->x,it);
         fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[it]);
       }
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_free (sfm); /* p *(sfm.x.data) et p *(sfm.x.data+1)  */
   #endif
   #ifdef POWELL
        powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
   #endif  
       fclose(ficrespow);
       
       hesscov(matcov, hess, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz); 
   
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){ 
           printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         printf("\n ");  fprintf(ficlog,"\n ");
       }
       
       printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
         fprintf(ficlog,"%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
       }
       lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
         agemortsup=k;
         if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
       }
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
         lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
         lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
         sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
       }
       
       tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
         /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
         tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
       }
       
       
       printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
         printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
       
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       if(ageminpar == AGEOVERFLOW ||agemaxpar == AGEOVERFLOW){
           printf("Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
   This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
   Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
   This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
   Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
       }else
         printinggnuplotmort(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       printinghtmlmort(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                        stepm, weightopt,\
                        model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
       
       free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
   #ifdef GSL
       free_ivector(cens,1,n);
       free_vector(agecens,1,n);
       free_ivector(dcwave,1,n);
       free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
   #endif
     } /* Endof if mle==-3 mortality only */
     /* Standard  */
     else{ /* For mle !=- 3, could be 0 or 1 or 4 etc. */
       globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
       /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximization */
         /* mlikeli uses func not funcone */
         mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
       }
       if(mle==0) {/* No optimization, will print the likelihoods for the datafile */
         globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
         /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
         likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       }
       globpr=1; /* again, to print the individual contributions using computed gpimx and gsw */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       
       /*--------- results files --------------*/
       fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
       
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
           if (k != i) {
             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
               printf("%12.7f ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
               jk++; 
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       if(mle != 0){
         /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix only at a peak of the Likelihood, that is after optimization */
         ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
         hesscov(matcov, hess, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
         printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
         fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n  It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
         for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
             if (k != i) {
               printf("%d%d ",i,k);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
               for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                 printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
                 jk++; 
               }
               printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             }
           }
         }
       } /* end of hesscov and Wald tests */
   
       /*  */
       fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if (j!=i) {
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       if(mle >= 1) /* To big for the screen */
         printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
       /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
       /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
       /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
       
       
       /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
          even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
       */
       for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
         jj=0;
         for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
             if(j==i) continue;
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               jj++;
               ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
               if(itimes==1){
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }else{
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }
               ll=0;
               for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                 for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   if(lj==li) continue;
                   for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                     ll++;
                     if(ll<=jj){
                       cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                       if(ll<jj){
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }else{
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }
                     }
                   } /* end lk */
                 } /* end lj */
               } /* end li */
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               fprintf(ficres,"\n");
               numlinepar++;
             } /* end k*/
           } /*end j */
         } /* end i */
       } /* end itimes */
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       fflush(ficres);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       estepm=0;
       fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
       if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
       if (fage <= 2) {
         bage = ageminpar;
         fage = agemaxpar;
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
       fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
   
       /* Other stuffs, more or less useful */    
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
       fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       
       dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
       dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
       fprintf(ficlog,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
       fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
       
       
       
        /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
       /* ,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2); */
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       if(ageminpar == AGEOVERFLOW ||agemaxpar == -AGEOVERFLOW){
           printf("Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
   This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
   Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
   This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
   Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
       }else
         printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtml(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                    model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                    jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
         
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
    
       free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
       free_lvector(num,1,n);
       free_vector(agedc,1,n);
       /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       fclose(ficparo);
       fclose(ficres);
   
   
       /* Other results (useful)*/
   
   
       /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
       /*#include "prevlim.h"*/  /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
       prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
       prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, ncvyear);
       fclose(ficrespl);
   
   #ifdef FREEEXIT2
   #include "freeexit2.h"
   #endif
   
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
       /*#include "hpijx.h"*/
       hPijx(p, bage, fage);
       fclose(ficrespij);
   
     /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
       k=1;
       varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
   
   
       probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
           for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
             probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
       /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
       /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
         /*      }  */
         /*      else{ */
         /*        erreur=108; */
         /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*      } */
       }
    
       /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */
   
       /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
   
       prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
           ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       */
   
       if (mobilav!=0) {
         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
         if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
           fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
           printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         }
       }
   
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies, no variances ------------*/
   
       strcpy(filerese,"E_");
       strcat(filerese,fileresu);
       if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(ficlog);
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
           }
           fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);  
         
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
       fclose(ficreseij);
       printf("done evsij\n");fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"done evsij\n");fflush(ficlog);
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
   
       strcpy(filerest,"T_");
       strcat(filerest,fileresu);
       if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(ficlog);
   
   
       strcpy(fileresstde,"STDE_");
       strcat(fileresstde,fileresu);
       if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
       }
       printf("  Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
       fprintf(ficlog,"  Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
   
       strcpy(filerescve,"CVE_");
       strcat(filerescve,fileresu);
       if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
       }
       printf("    Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
       fprintf(ficlog,"    Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
   
       strcpy(fileresv,"V_");
       strcat(fileresv,fileresu);
       if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       }
       printf("      Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"      Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(ficlog);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
         
         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
         fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
         
         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
         
         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         printf(" cvevsij %d, ",k);
         fprintf(ficlog, " cvevsij %d, ",k);
         cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
         printf(" end cvevsij \n ");
         fprintf(ficlog, " end cvevsij \n ");
         
         /*
          */
         /* goto endfree; */
         
         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         pstamp(ficrest);
         
         
         for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
           cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
           printf("varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
           fprintf(ficlog, "varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, ncvyear, k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
           fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
           if(vpopbased==1)
             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
           else
             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
           fprintf(ficrest,"# Age popbased mobilav e.. (std) ");
           for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
           /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
           epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
           printf("Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
           for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, ncvyear, k); /*ZZ Is it the correct prevalim */
             if (vpopbased==1) {
               if(mobilav ==0){
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
               }else{ /* mobilav */ 
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
               }
             }
             
             fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav);
             /* fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav,Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */ /* to be done */
             /* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */
             for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
               for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                 epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                 /*ZZZ  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
                 /* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
               }
               epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
             }
             /* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */
             
             for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                 vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
             }
             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
           }
         } /* End vpopbased */
         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
         printf("done \n");fflush(stdout);
         fprintf(ficlog,"done\n");fflush(ficlog);
         
         /*}*/
       } /* End k */
       free_vector(weight,1,n);
       free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
       free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
       free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_ivector(cod,1,n);
       free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
       fclose(ficresstdeij);
       fclose(ficrescveij);
       fclose(ficresvij);
       fclose(ficrest);
       printf("done Health expectancies\n");fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"done Health expectancies\n");fflush(ficlog);
       fclose(ficpar);
     
       /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/   
   
       strcpy(fileresvpl,"VPL_");
       strcat(fileresvpl,fileresu);
       if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
         exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
           varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, ncvyear, k, strstart);
           free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
   
       fclose(ficresvpl);
       printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
   
       /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
       if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
    /* endfree:*/
       free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
       free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
       free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
       free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
       /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
       free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
   
       free_ivector(ncodemax,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(ncodemaxwundef,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvar,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tprod,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tage,1,NCOVMAX);
   
       free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
       /* free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10); */
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     /*(void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);*/
     rend_time = time(NULL);  
     end_time = *localtime(&rend_time);
     /* tml = *localtime(&end_time.tm_sec); */
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&end_time));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
   
      printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
   #ifdef WIN32
      if (_chdir(pathcd) != 0)
              printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
      if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
   #else
      if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
              printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n", path);
      if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0)
   #endif 
       printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
     sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
   #ifdef _WIN32
     sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
   #endif
     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
       printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
         printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s' Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #ifdef __unix
       strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
       if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #endif
     }else
       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
     
     sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
   
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf("gnuplot command might not be in your path: '%s', err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
       printf("\n Trying if gnuplot resides on the same directory that IMaCh\n");
       sprintf(plotcmd,"%sgnuplot %s", pathimach, optionfilegnuplot);
       if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0)
         printf("\n Still a problem with gnuplot command %s, err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
     }
     printf(" Successful, please wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit results with your browser, g to graph again and q for exit: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') {
   #ifdef __APPLE__
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #elif __linux
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "xdg-open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #else
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "%s", optionfilehtm);
   #endif
         printf("Starting browser with: %s",pplotcmd);fflush(stdout);
         system(pplotcmd);
       }
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: "); fflush(stdout);
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }

Removed from v.1.34  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.208


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