|
|
| version 1.60, 2002/11/19 00:17:38 | version 1.61, 2002/11/19 14:08:13 |
|---|---|
| Line 928 double func( double *x) | Line 928 double func( double *x) |
| cov[1]=1.; | cov[1]=1.; |
| for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.; | for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.; |
| for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){ | |
| for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i]; | if(mle==1){ |
| for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){ | for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){ |
| for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++) | for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i]; |
| for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ | for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){ |
| oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0); | for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++) |
| savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0); | for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ |
| } | oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0); |
| for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){ | savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0); |
| newm=savm; | } |
| cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM; | for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){ |
| for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) { | newm=savm; |
| cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2]; | cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM; |
| } | for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) { |
| cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2]; | |
| out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, | } |
| 1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); | |
| savm=oldm; | out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, |
| oldm=newm; | 1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); |
| savm=oldm; | |
| oldm=newm; | |
| } /* end mult */ | } /* end mult */ |
| /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */ | /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */ |
| /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm. | /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm. |
| * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay | * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay |
| * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to | * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to |
| * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now | * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now |
| * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product | * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product |
| * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the | * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the |
| * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way | * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way |
| * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies | * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies |
| * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 . | * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 . |
| * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach. | * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach. |
| * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. | * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. |
| */ | */ |
| s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i]; | s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i]; |
| s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]; | s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]; |
| bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; | bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; |
| lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.-bbh)*out[s1][s2])); | lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.-bbh)*out[s1][s2])); |
| /*lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.-bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ | /*lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.-bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ |
| /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/ | /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/ |
| /*if(lli ==000.0)*/ | /*if(lli ==000.0)*/ |
| /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */ | /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */ |
| ipmx +=1; | ipmx +=1; |
| sw += weight[i]; | sw += weight[i]; |
| ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli; | ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli; |
| } /* end of wave */ | } /* end of wave */ |
| } /* end of individual */ | } /* end of individual */ |
| } else{ | |
| for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){ | |
| for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i]; | |
| for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){ | |
| for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++) | |
| for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ | |
| oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0); | |
| savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0); | |
| } | |
| for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){ | |
| newm=savm; | |
| cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM; | |
| for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) { | |
| cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2]; | |
| } | |
| out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, | |
| 1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); | |
| savm=oldm; | |
| oldm=newm; | |
| } /* end mult */ | |
| lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */ | |
| ipmx +=1; | |
| sw += weight[i]; | |
| ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli; | |
| } /* end of wave */ | |
| } /* end of individual */ | |
| } /* End of if */ | |
| for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k]; | for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k]; |
| /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */ | /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */ |
| l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */ | l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */ |
| Line 3122 populforecast(char fileres[], double anp | Line 3152 populforecast(char fileres[], double anp |
| int main(int argc, char *argv[]) | int main(int argc, char *argv[]) |
| { | { |
| int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav); | |
| int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod; | int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod; |
| double agedeb, agefin,hf; | double agedeb, agefin,hf; |
| double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20; | double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20; |
| Line 3160 int main(int argc, char *argv[]) | Line 3190 int main(int argc, char *argv[]) |
| double *epj, vepp; | double *epj, vepp; |
| double kk1, kk2; | double kk1, kk2; |
| double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2; | double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2; |
| /*int *movingaverage; */ | |
| char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]; | char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]; |
| Line 3663 int main(int argc, char *argv[]) | Line 3692 int main(int argc, char *argv[]) |
| so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */ | so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */ |
| p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */ | p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */ |
| if(mle==1){ | if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */ |
| mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func); | mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func); |
| } | } |