Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.22 and 1.107

version 1.22, 2002/02/22 17:54:20 version 1.107, 2006/01/19 16:20:37
Line 1 Line 1
 /* $Id$  /* $Id$
    Interpolate Markov Chain    $State$
     $Log$
   Short summary of the programme:    Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
      Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from  
   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a    Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are    Some cleaning and links added in html output
   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the  
   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a    Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change    *** empty log message ***
   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are  
   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the    that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
   probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave    (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore    contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where    health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more    the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program  
   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
   convergence.  
     Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not  
   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into    Fix on curr_time
   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.    
     Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be  
   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate    Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
   states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,    *** empty log message ***
   semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx  
   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply    New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
   hPijx.    directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
     state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.    other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
      cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).    from other sources like vital statistic data.
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.  
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
   from the European Union.  
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and    Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .  
   **********************************************************************/    The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
      the slope with 95% confident intervals.
 #include <math.h>  
 #include <stdio.h>    Current limitations:
 #include <stdlib.h>    A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
 #include <unistd.h>    model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
     B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
 #define MAXLINE 256  
 #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
 /*#define DEBUG*/    suppressed.
 #define windows  
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
     rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */  
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository):
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */  
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
 #define MAXN 20000    Just cleaning
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */  
 #define AGESUP 130    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
 #define AGEBASE 40    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
     exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
     (Module): Version 0.96b
 int erreur; /* Error number */  
 int nvar;    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
 int npar=NPARMAX;    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */  
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
 int ncovmodel, ncov;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
 int popbased=0;    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
     helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */  
 int mle, weightopt;    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */    of the covariance matrix to be input.
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */  
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf;    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
 FILE *ficgp, *fichtm,*ficresprob,*ficpop;    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
 FILE *ficreseij;    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];  
  FILE  *ficresvij;    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
  FILE  *ficresvpl;  
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
     Version 0.96
 #define NR_END 1  
 #define FREE_ARG char*    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
     routine fileappend.
 #define NRANSI  
 #define ITMAX 200    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
 #define TOL 2.0e-4    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
     prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    interview.
     (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
 #define GOLD 1.618034    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    truncation)
     (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;  
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
      place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)    parcimony.
     Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
 static double sqrarg;  
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    *** empty log message ***
   
 int imx;    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
 int stepm;    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/  
   */
 int m,nb;  /*
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;     Interpolated Markov Chain
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;  
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    Short summary of the programme:
 double dateintmean=0;    
     This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
 double *weight;    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
 int **s; /* Status */    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
     second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
     model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
 /**************** split *************************/    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
 {    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
    char *s;                             /* pointer */    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
     'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
 #ifdef windows    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */    convergence.
 #else  
    s = strrchr( path, '/' );            /* find last / */    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
 #endif    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
       extern char       *getwd( );    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
   
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
 #else    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
       extern char       *getcwd( );    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
     states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
 #endif    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
       }    hPijx.
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */  
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */    of the life expectancies. It also computes the stable prevalence. 
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */    
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */    from the European Union.
    }    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
 #ifdef windows    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }  
 #else    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
 #endif    
    s = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */    **********************************************************************/
    s++;  /*
    strcpy(ext,s);                       /* save extension */    main
    l1= strlen( name);    read parameterfile
    l2= strlen( s)+1;    read datafile
    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);    concatwav
    finame[l1-l2]= 0;    freqsummary
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */    if (mle >= 1)
 }      mlikeli
     print results files
     if mle==1 
 /******************************************/       computes hessian
     read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
 void replace(char *s, char*t)        begin-prev-date,...
 {    open gnuplot file
   int i;    open html file
   int lg=20;    stable prevalence
   i=0;     for age prevalim()
   lg=strlen(t);    h Pij x
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    variance of p varprob
     (s[i] = t[i]);    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';    health expectancies
   }    Variance-covariance of DFLE
 }    prevalence()
      movingaverage()
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)    varevsij() 
 {    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
   int i,j=0;    total life expectancies
   int lg=20;    Variance of stable prevalence
   i=0;   end
   lg=strlen(s);  */
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;  
   }  
   return j;   
 }  #include <math.h>
   #include <stdio.h>
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)  #include <stdlib.h>
 {  #include <string.h>
   int i,lg,j,p=0;  #include <unistd.h>
   i=0;  
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {  #include <sys/types.h>
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;  #include <sys/stat.h>
   }  #include <errno.h>
   extern int errno;
   lg=strlen(t);  
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {  /* #include <sys/time.h> */
     (u[j] = t[j]);  #include <time.h>
   }  #include "timeval.h"
      u[p]='\0';  
   /* #include <libintl.h> */
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {  /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);  
   }  #define MAXLINE 256
 }  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
   /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
 /********************** nrerror ********************/  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
   /*#define DEBUG*/
 void nrerror(char error_text[])  /*#define windows*/
 {  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);  
   exit(1);  #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
 }  #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
 /*********************** vector *******************/  
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)  #define NINTERVMAX 8
 {  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
   double *v;  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");  #define MAXN 20000
   return v-nl+NR_END;  #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
 }  #define AGESUP 130
   #define AGEBASE 40
 /************************ free vector ******************/  #define AGEGOMP 10. /* Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)  #ifdef UNIX
 {  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
 }  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   #else
 /************************ivector *******************************/  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)  #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
 {  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
   int *v;  #endif
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");  /* $Id$ */
   return v-nl+NR_END;  /* $State$ */
 }  
   char version[]="Imach version 0.98a, January 2006, INED-EUROREVES ";
 /******************free ivector **************************/  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)  int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
 {  int nvar;
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
 }  int npar=NPARMAX;
   int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */  int popbased=0;
 {  
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
   int **m;  int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
    int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
   /* allocate pointers to rows */  int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  int mle, weightopt;
   m += NR_END;  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
   m -= nrl;  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
    int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
               * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */  double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
    int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
    long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   return m;  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
 }  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
   FILE *ficresilk;
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
       int **m;  FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;  FILE *ficreseij;
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  FILE  *ficresvij;
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));  FILE  *ficresvpl;
 }  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
   char title[MAXLINE];
 /******************* matrix *******************************/  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
   double **m;  int  outcmd=0;
   
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  
   m += NR_END;  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
   m -= nrl;  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  
   struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  struct timezone tzp;
   return m;  extern int gettimeofday();
 }  struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
   long time_value;
 /*************************free matrix ************************/  extern long time();
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  #define NR_END 1
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  #define FREE_ARG char*
 }  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
   
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/  #define NRANSI 
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)  #define ITMAX 200 
 {  
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
   double ***m;  
   #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
   m += NR_END;  
   m -= nrl;  #define GOLD 1.618034 
   #define GLIMIT 100.0 
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    
   #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;  static double sqrarg;
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;  #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;  int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
    
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {  int imx; 
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;  int stepm=1;
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;  
   }  int estepm;
   return m;  /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
 }  
   int m,nb;
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/  long *num;
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)  int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
 {  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));  double **pmmij, ***probs;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  double *ageexmed,*agecens;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  double dateintmean=0;
 }  
   double *weight;
 /***************** f1dim *************************/  int **s; /* Status */
 extern int ncom;  double *agedc, **covar, idx;
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;  int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);  double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
    
 double f1dim(double x)  double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
 {  double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
   int j;  
   double f;  /**************** split *************************/
   double *xt;  static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
    {
   xt=vector(1,ncom);    /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];       the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);    */ 
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
   return f;    int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
 }  
     l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
 /*****************brent *************************/    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)    ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
 {    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
   int iter;      strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
   double a,b,d,etemp;      /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;        printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
   double ftemp;      /* get current working directory */
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
   double e=0.0;      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);      }
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
   x=w=v=bx;      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);    } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
     xm=0.5*(a+b);      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
 #ifdef DEBUG      dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);      printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */    }
 #endif    /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
       *xmin=x;    if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
       return fx;      dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
     }      dirc[l1+1] = 0; 
     ftemp=fu;      printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {    }
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);    if (ss >0){
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;      ss++;
       q=2.0*(q-r);      strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;      l1= strlen( name);
       q=fabs(q);      l2= strlen(ss)+1;
       etemp=e;      strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
       e=d;      finame[l1-l2]= 0;
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))    }
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  
       else {    return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
         d=p/q;  }
         u=x+d;  
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)  
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);  /******************************************/
       }  
     } else {  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  {
     }    int i;
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));    int lg=0;
     fu=(*f)(u);    i=0;
     if (fu <= fx) {    lg=strlen(t);
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)      (s[i] = t[i]);
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
         } else {    }
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;  }
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {  
             v=w;  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
             w=u;  {
             fv=fw;    int i,j=0;
             fw=fu;    int lg=20;
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {    i=0;
             v=u;    lg=strlen(s);
             fv=fu;    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
           }    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
         }    }
   }    return j;
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");  }
   *xmin=x;  
   return fx;  void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
 }  {
     /* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before first occurence of char 'occ' 
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/       and v starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
        gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,    int i,lg,j,p=0;
             double (*func)(double))    i=0;
 {    for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;      if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
   double fu;    }
    
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);    lg=strlen(t);
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);    for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
   if (*fb > *fa) {      (u[j] = t[j]);
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)    }
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)       u[p]='\0';
       }  
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);     for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);      if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
   while (*fb > *fc) {    }
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);  }
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);  
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/  /********************** nrerror ********************/
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));  
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);  void nrerror(char error_text[])
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {  {
       fu=(*func)(u);    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
       fu=(*func)(u);    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
       if (fu < *fc) {  }
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))  /*********************** vector *******************/
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))  double *vector(int nl, int nh)
           }  {
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {    double *v;
       u=ulim;    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
       fu=(*func)(u);    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
     } else {    return v-nl+NR_END;
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);  }
       fu=(*func)(u);  
     }  /************************ free vector ******************/
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)  {
       }    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
 }  }
   
 /*************** linmin ************************/  /************************ivector *******************************/
   int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
 int ncom;  {
 double *pcom,*xicom;    int *v;
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
      if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))    return v-nl+NR_END;
 {  }
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,  
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);  /******************free ivector **************************/
   double f1dim(double x);  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,  {
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   int j;  }
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;  
   double fx,fb,fa;  /************************lvector *******************************/
    long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
   ncom=n;  {
   pcom=vector(1,n);    long *v;
   xicom=vector(1,n);    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
   nrfunc=func;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    return v-nl+NR_END;
     pcom[j]=p[j];  }
     xicom[j]=xi[j];  
   }  /******************free lvector **************************/
   ax=0.0;  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
   xx=1.0;  {
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);  }
 #ifdef DEBUG  
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
 #endif  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
     xi[j] *= xmin;  { 
     p[j] += xi[j];    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
   }    int **m; 
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);    
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
 }    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
     if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
 /*************** powell ************************/    m += NR_END; 
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,    m -= nrl; 
             double (*func)(double []))    
 {    
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
               double (*func)(double []));    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
   int i,ibig,j;    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
   double fp,fptt;    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
   double *xits;    
   pt=vector(1,n);    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
   ptt=vector(1,n);    
   xit=vector(1,n);    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
   xits=vector(1,n);    return m; 
   *fret=(*func)(p);  } 
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];  
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
     fp=(*fret);  void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
     ibig=0;        int **m;
     del=0.0;        long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)  { 
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
     printf("\n");    free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  } 
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];  
       fptt=(*fret);  /******************* matrix *******************************/
 #ifdef DEBUG  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);  {
 #endif    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);    double **m;
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
         ibig=i;    m += NR_END;
       }    m -= nrl;
 #ifdef DEBUG  
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);    m[nrl] += NR_END;
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);    m[nrl] -= ncl;
       }  
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);    return m;
       printf("\n");    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) 
 #endif     */
     }  }
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {  
 #ifdef DEBUG  /*************************free matrix ************************/
       int k[2],l;  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
       k[0]=1;  {
       k[1]=-1;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  }
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);  
       printf("\n");  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  {
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);    double ***m;
         }  
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
       }    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
 #endif    m += NR_END;
     m -= nrl;
   
       free_vector(xit,1,n);    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
       free_vector(xits,1,n);    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);    m[nrl] += NR_END;
       free_vector(pt,1,n);    m[nrl] -= ncl;
       return;  
     }    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");  
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
       pt[j]=p[j];    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
     }    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
     if (fptt < fp) {    
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
       if (t < 0.0) {      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];    }
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];    return m; 
         }    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
 #ifdef DEBUG             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);    */
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  }
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);  
         printf("\n");  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
 #endif  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
       }  {
     }    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
   }    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
 }    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   }
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/  
   /*************** function subdirf ***********/
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
 {  {
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
     strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
   int i, ii,j,k;    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;    return tmpout;
   double **matprod2();  }
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();  
   double **newm;  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
   {
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)    
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
     }    strcat(tmpout,"/");
     strcat(tmpout,preop);
    cov[1]=1.;    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
      return tmpout;
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  }
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){  
     newm=savm;  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
      cov[2]=agefin;  {
      
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
         /*printf("ij=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf\n",ij, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k]);*/    strcat(tmpout,"/");
       }    strcat(tmpout,preop);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)    return tmpout;
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  }
   
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/  /***************** f1dim *************************/
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/  extern int ncom; 
   extern double *pcom,*xicom;
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
    
     savm=oldm;  double f1dim(double x) 
     oldm=newm;  { 
     maxmax=0.;    int j; 
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){    double f;
       min=1.;    double *xt; 
       max=0.;   
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
         sumnew=0;    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);    return f; 
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);  } 
       }  
       maxmin=max-min;  /*****************brent *************************/
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
     }  { 
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){    int iter; 
       return prlim;    double a,b,d,etemp;
     }    double fu,fv,fw,fx;
   }    double ftemp;
 }    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
     double e=0.0; 
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/   
     a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
 {    x=w=v=bx; 
   double s1, s2;    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
   /*double t34;*/    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;      xm=0.5*(a+b); 
       tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/  #ifdef DEBUG
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/      fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
       }      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
       ps[i][j]=s2;  #endif
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
     }        *xmin=x; 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){        return fx; 
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){      } 
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];      ftemp=fu;
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
       }        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
       ps[i][j]=s2;        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
     }        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
   }        q=2.0*(q-r); 
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
         q=fabs(q); 
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){        etemp=e; 
      s1=0;        e=d; 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)        else { 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);          d=p/q; 
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);          u=x+d; 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)          if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)        } 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];      } else { 
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
   } /* end i */      } 
       u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){      fu=(*f)(u); 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){      if (fu <= fx) { 
       ps[ii][jj]=0;        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
       ps[ii][ii]=1;        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
     }          SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
   }          } else { 
             if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
             if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){              v=w; 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){              w=u; 
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);              fv=fw; 
    }              fw=fu; 
     printf("\n ");            } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
     }              v=u; 
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/              fv=fu; 
 /*            } 
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);          } 
   goto end;*/    } 
     return ps;    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
 }    *xmin=x; 
     return fx; 
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/  } 
   
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
 {  
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */              double (*func)(double)) 
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized  { 
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */    double fu; 
   long i, j, k;   
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)    *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)    *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)    if (*fb > *fa) { 
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
         SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
   return out;        } 
 }    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
     *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
     while (*fb > *fc) { 
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
       q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
 {        (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
      duration (i.e. until      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.        fu=(*func)(u); 
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).        fu=(*func)(u); 
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be        if (fu < *fc) { 
      included manually here.          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
             SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
      */            } 
       } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
   int i, j, d, h, k;        u=ulim; 
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];        fu=(*func)(u); 
   double **newm;      } else { 
         u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */        fu=(*func)(u); 
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)      } 
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        } 
     }  } 
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){  /*************** linmin ************************/
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){  
       newm=savm;  int ncom; 
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */  double *pcom,*xicom;
       cov[1]=1.;  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;   
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)  { 
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];    double f1dim(double x); 
     void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
                 double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/    int j; 
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,    double fx,fb,fa;
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));   
       savm=oldm;    ncom=n; 
       oldm=newm;    pcom=vector(1,n); 
     }    xicom=vector(1,n); 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)    nrfunc=func; 
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);      xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
          */    } 
       }    ax=0.0; 
   } /* end h */    xx=1.0; 
   return po;    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
 }    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
   #ifdef DEBUG
     printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
 double func( double *x)  #endif
 {    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;      xi[j] *= xmin; 
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];      p[j] += xi[j]; 
   double **out;    } 
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */    free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
   long ipmx;  } 
   /*extern weight */  
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/  {
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
   */    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
   cov[1]=1.;    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
     sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];    sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){    return ascdiff;
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)  }
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){  /*************** powell ************************/
         newm=savm;  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;              double (*func)(double [])) 
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {  { 
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
         }                double (*func)(double [])); 
            int i,ibig,j; 
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));    double fp,fptt;
         savm=oldm;    double *xits;
         oldm=newm;    int niterf, itmp;
          
            pt=vector(1,n); 
       } /* end mult */    ptt=vector(1,n); 
          xit=vector(1,n); 
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);    xits=vector(1,n); 
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/    *fret=(*func)(p); 
       ipmx +=1;    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
       sw += weight[i];    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;      fp=(*fret); 
     } /* end of wave */      ibig=0; 
   } /* end of individual */      del=0.0; 
       last_time=curr_time;
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];      (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */      /*    fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
   return -l;      fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
 }      */
      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
         printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
         fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))      }
 {      printf("\n");
   int i,j, iter;      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   double **xi,*delti;      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
   double fret;      if(*iter <=3){
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tm));
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        forecast_time=curr_time; 
   printf("Powell\n");        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
           strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
         for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
 }          forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
           tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/  /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
 {          itmp = strlen(strfor);
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;          if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
   double **hess;          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
   int i, j,jk;          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
   int *indx;          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
         }
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);      }
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;        fptt=(*fret); 
   #ifdef DEBUG
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
         fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");  #endif
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/          del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
   }          ibig=i; 
          } 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  #ifdef DEBUG
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
       if (j>i) {        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];              printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
       }        }
     }        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   }          printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
   printf("\n");          fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
         }
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");        printf("\n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  #endif
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);      } 
   x=vector(1,npar);      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
   indx=ivector(1,npar);  #ifdef DEBUG
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        int k[2],l;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];        k[0]=1;
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);        k[1]=-1;
         printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
     x[j]=1;          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        }
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];        printf("\n");
     }        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   }        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
           for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {            fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);          }
     }          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
     printf("\n");          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
   }        }
   #endif
   /* Recompute Inverse */  
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)  
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
         free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
         return; 
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {      } 
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
     x[j]=1;      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
       y[i][j]=x[i];        pt[j]=p[j]; 
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);      } 
     }      fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
     printf("\n");      if (fptt < fp) { 
   }        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
   */        if (t < 0.0) { 
           linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
   free_vector(x,1,npar);            xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);          }
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);  #ifdef DEBUG
           printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
 }          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
             printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/            fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])          }
 {          printf("\n");
   int i;          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   int l=1, lmax=20;  #endif
   double k1,k2;        }
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];      } 
   double res;    } 
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;  } 
   double fx;  
   int k=0,kmax=10;  /**** Prevalence limit (stable prevalence)  ****************/
   double l1;  
   double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
   fx=func(x);  {
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){       matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
     l1=pow(10,l);  
     delts=delt;    int i, ii,j,k;
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
       delt = delta*(l1*k);    double **matprod2();
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
       k1=func(p2)-fx;    double **newm;
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;    double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
       k2=func(p2)-fx;  
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 #ifdef DEBUG      }
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);  
 #endif     cov[1]=1.;
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */   
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
         k=kmax;    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
       }      newm=savm;
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;       cov[2]=agefin;
       }    
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
         delts=delt;          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
       }          /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
     }        }
   }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
   delti[theta]=delts;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
   return res;          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
    
 }        /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
         /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
 {      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
   int i;  
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;      savm=oldm;
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;      oldm=newm;
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];      maxmax=0.;
   int k;      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
         min=1.;
   fx=func(x);        max=0.;
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];          sumnew=0;
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
     k1=func(p2)-fx;          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
            min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;        }
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;        maxmin=max-min;
     k2=func(p2)-fx;        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
        }
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;        return prlim;
     k3=func(p2)-fx;      }
      }
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;  }
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;  
     k4=func(p2)-fx;  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */  
 #ifdef DEBUG  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);  {
 #endif    double s1, s2;
   }    /*double t34;*/
   return res;    int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
 }  
       for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/        for(j=1; j<i;j++){
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)          for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
 {            /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
   int i,imax,j,k;            s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   double big,dum,sum,temp;  /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
   double *vv;          }
            ps[i][j]=s2;
   vv=vector(1,n);  /*      printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
   *d=1.0;        }
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     big=0.0;          for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)            s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;  /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2); */
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");          }
     vv[i]=1.0/big;          ps[i][j]=s2;
   }        }
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {      }
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {      /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
       sum=a[i][j];      
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
       a[i][j]=sum;        s1=0;
     }        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
     big=0.0;          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
       sum=a[i][j];          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)        ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
       a[i][j]=sum;          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
         big=dum;          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
         imax=i;        /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
       }      } /* end i */
     }      
     if (j != imax) {      for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {        for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
         dum=a[imax][k];          ps[ii][jj]=0;
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];          ps[ii][ii]=1;
         a[j][k]=dum;        }
       }      }
       *d = -(*d);      
       vv[imax]=vv[j];  
     }  /*        for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
     indx[j]=imax;  /*       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;  /*         printf("ddd %lf ",ps[ii][jj]); */
     if (j != n) {  /*       } */
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);  /*       printf("\n "); */
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;  /*        } */
     }  /*        printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]); */
   }         /*
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */        for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
 ;        goto end;*/
 }      return ps;
   }
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])  
 {  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;  
   double sum;  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
    {
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
     ip=indx[i];       b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
     sum=b[ip];    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
     b[ip]=b[i];       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
     if (ii)       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    long i, j, k;
     else if (sum) ii=i;    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
     b[i]=sum;      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
   }        for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
     sum=b[i];  
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    return out;
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];  }
   }  
 }  
   /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
 /************ Frequencies ********************/  
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2)  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
 {  /* Some frequencies */  {
      /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
   double *pp;       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
   FILE *ficresp;       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];       for the memory).
        Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);       included manually here. 
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");       */
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);  
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {    int i, j, d, h, k;
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
     exit(0);    double **newm;
   }  
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
   j1=0;    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
       for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   j=cptcoveff;        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
        j1++;      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);        newm=savm;
          scanf("%d", i);*/        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
         for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)          cov[1]=1.;
          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)          cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
            for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
              freq[i][jk][m]=0;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
           cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
         dateintsum=0;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
         k2cpt=0;          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {  
          bool=1;  
          if  (cptcovn>0) {        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
                bool=0;                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
          }        savm=oldm;
          if (bool==1) {        oldm=newm;
            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){      }
              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
              if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;          /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];           */
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];        }
                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {    } /* end h */
                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;    return po;
                  k2cpt++;  }
                }  
   
              }  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
            }  double func( double *x)
          }  {
        }    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
         if  (cptcovn>0) {    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");    double **out;
          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
        fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
         }    int s1, s2;
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    double bbh, survp;
          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);    long ipmx;
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");    /*extern weight */
            /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
   for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
     if(i==(int)agemax+3)    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
       printf("Total");      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     else    */
       printf("Age %d", i);    cov[1]=1.;
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  
       for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];  
     }    if(mle==1){
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         pos += freq[jk][m][i];        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
       if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       else              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     }            }
           for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
      for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            newm=savm;
       for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
      }              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
             }
     for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
       pos += pp[jk];                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            savm=oldm;
       if(pos>=1.e-5)            oldm=newm;
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);          } /* end mult */
       else        
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);          /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
       if( i <= (int) agemax){          /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
         if(pos>=1.e-5){           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
           fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
           probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
           /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
         }           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
       else           * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
           fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);           * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
       }           * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
     }           * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
     for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
       for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)           */
         if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     if(i <= (int) agemax)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
       fprintf(ficresp,"\n");          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
     printf("\n");          /* bias bh is positive if real duration
     }           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
     }           */
  }          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
              /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known 
   fclose(ficresp);               then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to 
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);               die between last step unit time and current  step unit time, 
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);               which is also equal to probability to die before dh 
                minus probability to die before dh-stepm . 
   /* End of Freq */               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
 }          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
           health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
 /************ Prevalence ********************/          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
 void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
 {  /* Some frequencies */          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
            introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
   double *pp;          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
   double pos, k2;          and month of death but the probability to survive from last
           interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
            mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);          which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
   j1=0;          lower mortality.
              */
   j=cptcoveff;            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}  
    
  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){          } else if  (s2==-2) {
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
       j1++;              survp += out[s1][j];
              lli= survp;
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)            }
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)            
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)          else if  (s2==-4) {
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;            for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
                    survp += out[s1][j];
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {            lli= survp;
         bool=1;          }
         if  (cptcovn>0) {          
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)          else if  (s2==-5) {
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++) 
               bool=0;              survp += out[s1][j];
         }            lli= survp;
         if (bool==1) {          }
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){  
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);  
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {          else{
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];          } 
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3+1)] += weight[i];            /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
             }          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
           }          /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
         }          ipmx +=1;
       }          sw += weight[i];
                ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){        } /* end of wave */
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      } /* end of individual */
             for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)    }  else if(mle==2){
               pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
           }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
             for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         }              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                      savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            }
            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];            newm=savm;
          }            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                      for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
          for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
             }
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){                      out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
            if( i <= (int) agemax){                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
              if(pos>=1.e-5){            savm=oldm;
                probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;            oldm=newm;
              }          } /* end mult */
            }        
          }          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                    s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         }          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
     }          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
   }          ipmx +=1;
            sw += weight[i];
            ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);        } /* end of wave */
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);      } /* end of individual */
      }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
 }  /* End of Freq */      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
           for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
 {              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).            }
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]            newm=savm;
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
      */            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   int i, mi, m;            }
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
             savm=oldm;
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;            oldm=newm;
   double sum=0.;          } /* end mult */
   jmin=1e+5;        
   jmax=-1;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   jmean=0.;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
     mi=0;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
     m=firstpass;          ipmx +=1;
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){          sw += weight[i];
       if(s[m][i]>=1)          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         mw[++mi][i]=m;        } /* end of wave */
       if(m >=lastpass)      } /* end of individual */
         break;    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
       else      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
         m++;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     }/* end while */        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
          /* Only death is a correct wave */              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       mw[mi][i]=m;            }
     }          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
             newm=savm;
     wav[i]=mi;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     if(mi==0)            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   }            }
           
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
       if (stepm <=0)            savm=oldm;
         dh[mi][i]=1;            oldm=newm;
       else{          } /* end mult */
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {        
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
           k=k+1;            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;          }else{
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
           sum=sum+j;          }
           /* if (j<10) printf("j=%d num=%d ",j,i); */          ipmx +=1;
           }          sw += weight[i];
         }          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         else{  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));        } /* end of wave */
           k=k+1;      } /* end of individual */
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
           /*   if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
           sum=sum+j;        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         }          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
         jk= j/stepm;            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         jl= j -jk*stepm;              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         if(jl <= -ju)            }
           dh[mi][i]=jk;          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
         else            newm=savm;
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       }            }
     }          
   }            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   jmean=sum/k;                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);            savm=oldm;
  }            oldm=newm;
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/          } /* end mult */
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)        
 {          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   int cptcode=0;          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
   cptcoveff=0;          ipmx +=1;
            sw += weight[i];
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
         } /* end of wave */
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {      } /* end of individual */
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {    } /* End of if */
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
       Ndum[ij]++;    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;    return -l;
     }  }
   
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;  double funcone( double *x)
     }  {
     ij=1;    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
     int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
     double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {    double **out;
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {    double llt;
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;    int s1, s2;
           ij++;    double bbh, survp;
         }    /*extern weight */
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
       }      /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
     }    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
   }        printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     */
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;    cov[1]=1.;
   
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
       ij=Tvar[i];  
       Ndum[ij]++;    for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
     }      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
  ij=1;        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncov)){            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      ij++;          }
    }        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
  }          newm=savm;
            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     cptcoveff=ij-1;          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
 }            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
           }
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                        1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)          savm=oldm;
 {          oldm=newm;
   /* Health expectancies */        } /* end mult */
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;        
   double age, agelim,hf;        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   double ***p3mat;        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");        /* bias is positive if real duration
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)         */
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");        } else if (mle==1){
           lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /*  Every j years of age (in month) */        } else if(mle==2){
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
         } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
   agelim=AGESUP;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);        } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
     /* Typically if 20 years = 20*12/6=40 stepm */          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;        } /* End of if */
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically 40/4=10 */        ipmx +=1;
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        sw += weight[i];
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */  /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);          if(globpr){
           fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %1d %1d %1d %1d %3d %10.6f %6.4f\
    %10.6f %10.6f %10.6f ", \
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
           eij[i][j][(int)age] +=p3mat[i][j][h];            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
         }            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
              }
     hf=1;          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;        }
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%.0f",age );      } /* end of wave */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    } /* end of individual */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
         fprintf(ficreseij," %.4f", hf*eij[i][j][(int)age]);    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
       }    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      gipmx=ipmx;
   }      gsw=sw;
 }    }
     return -l;
 /************ Variance ******************/  }
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)  
 {  
   /* Variance of health expectancies */  /*************** function likelione ***********/
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
   double **newm;  {
   double **dnewm,**doldm;    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;       the selection of individuals/waves and
   int k, cptcode;       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
   double *xp;       Plotting could be done.
   double **gp, **gm;     */
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;    int k;
   double ***p3mat;  
   double age,agelim;    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
   int theta;      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
       strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)      }
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
       /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
   xp=vector(1,npar);      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);      fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
      }
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */  
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
   agelim = AGESUP;    if(*globpri !=0){
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */      fclose(ficresilk);
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;      fflush(fichtm); 
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    } 
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    return;
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);  }
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  
   /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){  
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  {
       }    int i,j, iter;
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      double **xi;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    double fret;
     double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
       if (popbased==1) {    /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       }      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
              xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
         }      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
        }
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
       if (popbased==1) {  
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];  
       }    fclose(ficrespow);
     printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)  
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];  }
         }  
       }  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
   void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)  {
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];    double **hess;
         }    int i, j,jk;
     } /* End theta */    int *indx;
   
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
     double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    double gompertz(double p[]);
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);     
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)      /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];          printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
       }    }
     }    
     h=1;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
     if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );        if (j>i) { 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
       }          
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);        }
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);      }
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    }
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    printf("\n");
   } /* End age */    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    
     a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
 }    y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     x=vector(1,npar);
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/    indx=ivector(1,npar);
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
 {      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/  
   double **newm;    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
   double **dnewm,**doldm;      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;      x[j]=1;
   int k, cptcode;      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
   double *xp;      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
   double *gp, *gm;        matcov[i][j]=x[i];
   double **gradg, **trgradg;      }
   double age,agelim;    }
   int theta;  
        printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);        printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
       }
   xp=vector(1,npar);      printf("\n");
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    }
    
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */    /* Recompute Inverse */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
   agelim = AGESUP;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */  
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */  
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);      x[j]=1;
       lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */        y[i][j]=x[i];
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
       }        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);      }
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      printf("\n");
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        }
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */    */
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];    free_vector(x,1,npar);
     free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];  
     } /* End theta */  
   }
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  
   /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)  {
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];    int i;
     int l=1, lmax=20;
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double k1,k2;
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);    double res;
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double fx;
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */    int k=0,kmax=10;
     double l1;
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );  
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    fx=func(x);
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");    for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);      l1=pow(10,l);
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);      delts=delt;
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);        delt = delta*(l1*k);
   } /* End age */        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
         k1=func(p2)-fx;
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        k2=func(p2)-fx;
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
         res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
 }        
   #ifdef DEBUG
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
 void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
 {  #endif
   int i, j;        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
   int k=0, cptcode;        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
   double **dnewm,**doldm;          k=kmax;
   double *xp;        }
   double *gp, *gm;        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
   double **gradg, **trgradg;          k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];        }
   int theta;        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];          delts=delt;
         }
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");      }
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);    }
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {    delti[theta]=delts;
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);    return res; 
   }    
   printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);  }
    
   double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
   xp=vector(1,npar);  {
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);    int i;
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
      double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
   cov[1]=1;    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){    int k;
     cov[2]=age;  
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);    fx=func(x);
     trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
     gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
          p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      k1=func(p2)-fx;
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)    
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
            p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);      k2=func(p2)-fx;
        
       k=0;      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
       for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      k3=func(p2)-fx;
            k=k+1;    
           gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
         }      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
       }      k4=func(p2)-fx;
       res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)  #ifdef DEBUG
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
          fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   #endif
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);    }
       k=0;    return res;
       for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){  }
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  
           k=k+1;  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
           gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
         }  { 
       }    int i,imax,j,k; 
          double big,dum,sum,temp; 
        for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)    double *vv; 
            gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];     
     }    vv=vector(1,n); 
     *d=1.0; 
      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)      big=0.0; 
       trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
          if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
     } 
      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
      k=0;        sum=a[i][j]; 
      for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
        for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){        a[i][j]=sum; 
          k=k+1;      } 
          gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];      big=0.0; 
         }      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
      }        sum=a[i][j]; 
              for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
      /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){        a[i][j]=sum; 
                if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
           big=dum; 
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));          imax=i; 
      }*/        } 
       } 
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);      if (j != imax) { 
         for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
   for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){          dum=a[imax][k]; 
     if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);          a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
 if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);          a[j][k]=dum; 
   }        } 
         *d = -(*d); 
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));      } 
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);      indx[j]=imax; 
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
 }      if (j != n) { 
  free_vector(xp,1,npar);        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
 fclose(ficresprob);        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
  exit(0);      } 
 }    } 
     free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
 /***********************************************/  ;
 /**************** Main Program *****************/  } 
 /***********************************************/  
   void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
 int main(int argc, char *argv[])  { 
 {    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
     double sum; 
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;   
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   double agemin=1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;      ip=indx[i]; 
       sum=b[ip]; 
   double fret;      b[ip]=b[i]; 
   double **xi,tmp,delta;      if (ii) 
         for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */      else if (sum) ii=i; 
   double ***p3mat;      b[i]=sum; 
   int *indx;    } 
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
   char title[MAXLINE];      sum=b[i]; 
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
   char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
      } 
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];;  } 
   
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];  /************ Frequencies ********************/
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];  {  /* Some frequencies */
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];    
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;    int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */    int first;
   int c,  h , cpt,l;    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
   int ju,jl, mi;    double *pp, **prop;
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;    FILE *ficresp;
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
   int hstepm, nhstepm;    
   int *popage;/*boolprev=0 if date and zero if wave*/    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2;    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
     strcpy(fileresp,"p");
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
   double ftolpl=FTOL;    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
   double **prlim;      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   double *severity;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */      exit(0);
   double  *p;    }
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */    freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */    j1=0;
   double *delti; /* Scale */    
   double ***eij, ***vareij;    j=cptcoveff;
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   double *epj, vepp;  
   double kk1, kk2;    first=1;
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;  
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean, calagedate;    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
   double yp,yp1,yp2;      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
         j1++;
   char version[80]="Imach version 0.7, February 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];          scanf("%d", i);*/
         for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
           for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
   char z[1]="c", occ;            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
 #include <sys/time.h>              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
 #include <time.h>  
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];      for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   /* long total_usecs;          prop[i][m]=0;
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;        
          dateintsum=0;
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */        k2cpt=0;
         for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
           bool=1;
   printf("\n%s",version);          if  (cptcovn>0) {
   if(argc <=1){            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
     scanf("%s",pathtot);                bool=0;
   }          }
   else{          if (bool==1){
     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
   }              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/              /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                 if (m<lastpass) {
   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
   chdir(path);                }
   replace(pathc,path);                
                 if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
                   k2cpt++;
   strcpy(fileres,"r");                }
   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);                /*}*/
   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */            }
           }
   /*---------arguments file --------*/        }
          
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);  fprintf(ficresp, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
     goto end;        if  (cptcovn>0) {
   }          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   strcpy(filereso,"o");          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
   strcat(filereso,fileres);        }
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
   }        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
         
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          if(i==iagemax+3){
     ungetc(c,ficpar);            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          }else{
     puts(line);            if(first==1){
     fputs(line,ficparo);              first=0;
   }              printf("See log file for details...\n");
   ungetc(c,ficpar);            }
             fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncov, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);          }
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncov,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);            for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          }
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     puts(line);            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
     fputs(line,ficparo);              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
   }            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
   ungetc(c,ficpar);              if(first==1){
                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
                  }
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
   cptcovn=0;            }else{
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;              if(first==1)
                 printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */            }
            }
   /* Read guess parameters */  
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
     ungetc(c,ficpar);              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          }       
     puts(line);          for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     fputs(line,ficparo);            pos += pp[jk];
   }            posprop += prop[jk][i];
   ungetc(c,ficpar);          }
            for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);            if(pos>=1.e-5){
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)              if(first==1)
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);            }else{
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);              if(first==1)
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);            }
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);            if( i <= iagemax){
       }              if(pos>=1.e-5){
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
       printf("\n");                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
     }              }
                else
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
             }
   p=param[1][1];          }
            
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
     ungetc(c,ficpar);              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);              if(first==1)
     puts(line);                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
     fputs(line,ficparo);                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
   }              }
   ungetc(c,ficpar);          if(i <= iagemax)
             fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);          if(first==1)
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */            printf("Others in log...\n");
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){        }
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);      }
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);    }
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){   
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);    fclose(ficresp);
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
       }    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");    /* End of Freq */
       printf("\n");  }
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");  
     }  /************ Prevalence ********************/
   }  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
   delti=delti3[1][1];  {  
      /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);   
     puts(line);    int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
     fputs(line,ficparo);    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
   }    double *pp, **prop;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    double pos,posprop; 
      double  y2; /* in fractional years */
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);    int iagemin, iagemax;
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){  
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);    iagemin= (int) agemin;
     printf("%s",str);    iagemax= (int) agemax;
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);    j1=0;
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);    
     }    j=cptcoveff;
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     printf("\n");    
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
   }      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)        j1++;
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)        
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
              for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   printf("\n");            prop[i][m]=0.0;
        
         for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
     /*-------- data file ----------*/          bool=1;
     if((ficres =fopen(fileres,"w"))==NULL) {          if  (cptcovn>0) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileres);goto end;            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
     }              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);                bool=0;
              } 
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {          if (bool==1) { 
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
     }              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
               if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
     n= lastobs;                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
     num=ivector(1,n);                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
     moisnais=vector(1,n);                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
     annais=vector(1,n);                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
     moisdc=vector(1,n);                  prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
     andc=vector(1,n);                } 
     agedc=vector(1,n);              }
     cod=ivector(1,n);            } /* end selection of waves */
     weight=vector(1,n);          }
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */        }
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);          
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);                posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);          } 
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);  
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
     i=1;            if( i <=  iagemax){ 
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {              if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
                      } 
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){            } 
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);          }/* end jk */ 
           strcpy(line,stra);        }/* end i */ 
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      } /* end i1 */
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    } /* end k1 */
         }    
            /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
   }  /* End of prevalence */
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
         for (j=ncov;j>=1;j--){  {
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
         }       Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
         num[i]=atol(stra);       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
               dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/       */
   
         i=i+1;    int i, mi, m;
       }    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
     }       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);    int first;
        scanf("%d",i);*/    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */    double sum=0.;
     first=0;
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){    jmin=1e+5;
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;    jmax=-1;
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;    jmean=0.;
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     }      mi=0;
       m=firstpass;
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
     if (covar[1][i]==0) printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/        if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
           mw[++mi][i]=m;
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/        if(m >=lastpass)
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);          break;
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);        else
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);          m++;
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);      }/* end while */
   Tage=ivector(1,15);            if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
            mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
   if (strlen(model) >1){        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;           /* Only death is a correct wave */
     j=nbocc(model,'+');        mw[mi][i]=m;
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');      }
     cptcovn=j+1;  
     cptcovprod=j1;      wav[i]=mi;
          if(mi==0){
            nbwarn++;
     strcpy(modelsav,model);        if(first==0){
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){          printf("Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);          first=1;
       goto end;        }
     }        if(first==1){
              fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){        }
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');      } /* end mi==0 */
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);    } /* End individuals */
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/  
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');        if (stepm <=0)
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {          dh[mi][i]=1;
           cptcovprod--;        else{
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');          if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
           cptcovage++;              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;              if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/              else if(j<0){
         }                nberr++;
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {                printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
           cptcovprod--;                j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');                printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
           cptcovage++;                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;              }
         }              k=k+1;
         else {              if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');              if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;
           Tvar[i]=ncov+k1;              sum=sum+j;
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');              /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
           Tprod[k1]=i;              /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);            }
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);          }
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];          else{
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];            j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)  /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
             covar[ncov+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];  
           k1++;            k=k+1;
           k2=k2+2;            if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
         }            else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;
       }            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
       else {            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/            if(j<0){
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/              nberr++;
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
       }            }
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);              sum=sum+j;
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);          }
         scanf("%d",i);*/          jk= j/stepm;
     }          jl= j -jk*stepm;
 }          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
            if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
   /*printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);            if(jl==0){
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);              dh[mi][i]=jk;
   scanf("%d ",i);*/              bh[mi][i]=0;
     fclose(fic);            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
                     * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
     /*  if(mle==1){*/              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/              bh[mi][i]=ju;
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;            }
     }          }else{
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/            if(jl <= -ju){
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);              dh[mi][i]=jk;
               bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)                                   * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++)                                   */
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){            }
          anint[m][i]=9999;            else{
          s[m][i]=-1;              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
        }              bh[mi][i]=ju;
                }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {            if(dh[mi][i]==0){
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
         if(s[m][i] >0){              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
           if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {            }
             if(agedc[i]>0)          } /* end if mle */
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)        }
               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];      } /* end wave */
             else {    }
               if (andc[i]!=9999){    jmean=sum/k;
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
               agev[m][i]=-1;    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
               }   }
             }  
           }  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);  {
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)    
               agev[m][i]=1;    int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){    int cptcode=0;
               agemin=agev[m][i];    cptcoveff=0; 
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/   
             }    for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){    for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
               agemax=agev[m][i];  
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
             }      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum 
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/                                 modality*/ 
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
           }        Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
           else { /* =9 */        /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
             agev[m][i]=1;        if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable 
             s[m][i]=-1;                                         Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and 
           }                                         female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
         }      }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */  
           agev[m][i]=1;      for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
       }        if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
          }
     }  
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {      ij=1; 
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){      for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {        for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");            if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
           goto end;            nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
         }            /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
       }            
     }            ij++;
           }
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);          if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
         }  
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);      } 
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    }  
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);  
     free_vector(annais,1,n);   for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);  
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/   for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { 
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);     /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
     free_vector(andc,1,n);     ij=Tvar[i];
      Ndum[ij]++;
       }
     wav=ivector(1,imx);  
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   ij=1;
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
         if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
     /* Concatenates waves */       Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);       ij++;
      }
    }
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);   
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);   cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
       ncodemax[1]=1;  }
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);  
        /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);  
    h=0;  void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);  
    {
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* Health expectancies */
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){    double age, agelim, hf;
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){    double ***p3mat,***varhe;
            h++;    double **dnewm,**doldm;
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;    double *xp;
          }    double **gp, **gm;
        }    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
      }    int theta;
    }  
     varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
     xp=vector(1,npar);
    /*for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);    
      }    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Local time at start: %s", strstart);
      printf("\n");    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
    }    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
    scanf("%d",i);*/    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
          for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age        fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
   
        if(estepm < stepm){
          printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    }
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    else  hstepm=estepm;   
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
           * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
      * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
     if(mle==1){     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
     }  
        /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     /*--------- results files --------------*/    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
         nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
    jk=1;       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
    printf("# Parameters\n");       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
        if (k != i)       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
          {    */
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);  
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    agelim=AGESUP;
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);      /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
              jk++;      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
            }      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
            printf("\n");      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
          }      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
      }      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    }      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
  if(mle==1){      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */  
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
  }      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales\n");   
     printf("# Scales\n");  
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){  
         if (j!=i) {      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);  
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);        }
             jk++;        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
           }    
           printf("\n");        cptj=0;
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
         }          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
       }            cptj=cptj+1;
      }            for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
                  gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
     k=1;            }
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");          }
     printf("# Covariance\n");        }
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){       
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;       
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) 
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);        
       printf("%3d",i);        cptj=0;
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);            cptj=cptj+1;
       }            for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");  
       printf("\n");              gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
       k++;            }
     }          }
            }
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        for(j=1; j<= nlstate*nlstate; j++)
       ungetc(c,ficpar);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
       puts(line);          }
       fputs(line,ficparo);       } 
     }     
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  /* End theta */
    
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
      
     if (fage <= 2) {       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
       bage = agemin;        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
       fage = agemax;          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
     }            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
           
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");  
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);       for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);        for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
            varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  
     ungetc(c,ficpar);       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
     puts(line);       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
     fputs(line,ficparo);        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
   }          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
            for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mob_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);            for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mob_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);              varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
  fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mob_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);        }
            }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){      /* Computing expectancies */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
     puts(line);          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     fputs(line,ficparo);            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
   }            
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
    
           }
    dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;  
    dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
       cptj=0;
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
    fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);          for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
    fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);            cptj++;
           fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);     
     puts(line);      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     fputs(line,ficparo);      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   }      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2);      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
 fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);    }
 fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);    printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2);  
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
        free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     /*chdir(pathcd);*/    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);  }
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".plt");  
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {  /************ Variance ******************/
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);goto end;  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
     }  {
 #ifdef windows    /* Variance of health expectancies */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
 #endif    /* double **newm;*/
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    double **dnewm,**doldm;
      double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
  /* 1eme*/    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {    int k, cptcode;
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    double *xp;
     double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
 #ifdef windows    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
 #endif    double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
 #ifdef unix    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);    double ***p3mat;
 #endif    double age,agelim, hf;
     double ***mobaverage;
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    int theta;
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    char digit[4];
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    char digitp[25];
 }  
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {  
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    if(popbased==1){
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      if(mobilav!=0)
 }        strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    }
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    else 
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
 }    
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));    if (mobilav!=0) {
 #ifdef unix      mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");      if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
 #endif        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
    }      }
   }    }
   /*2 eme*/  
     strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
        strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
       k=2*i;    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    }
 }      printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");   
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
 }        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    }  
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
 }      /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
     }  /*   } */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   }   fprintf(ficresvij, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
      fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");
   /*3eme*/    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {        fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
       k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);  
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {    xp=vector(1,npar);
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
       }    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     }    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   }  
      gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   /* CV preval stat */    gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
       k=3;    
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemax,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);    if(estepm < stepm){
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);    }
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);    else  hstepm=estepm;   
          /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);       and note for a fixed period like k years */
       }    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);         survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
       fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
     }       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
   }         results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     */
   /* proba elementaires */    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    agelim = AGESUP;
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       if (k != i) {      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s%1d%1d=%f ",alph[j],i,k,p[jk]);*/      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s",alph[1]);*/      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
           jk++;      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");  
         }  
       }      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
     }        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
     }          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
   for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemax);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
    i=1;  
    for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {        if (popbased==1) {
      k3=i;          if(mobilav ==0){
      for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        if (k != k2){              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
 ij=1;            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {          }
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);        }
             ij++;    
           }        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           else          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
           fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);            for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
         }              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
           fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");          }
                }
         for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){          /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
           fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
 ij=1;           as a weighted average of prlim.
           for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){        */
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
             ij++;            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
           }        }    
           else        /* end probability of death */
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);  
           }        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
           fprintf(ficgp,")");          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");   
         i=i+ncovmodel;        if (popbased==1) {
        }          if(mobilav ==0){
      }            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
    }              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk);          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
   }            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                  prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
   fclose(ficgp);          }
   /* end gnuplot */        }
      
 chdir(path);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
              for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);            }
     free_ivector(num,1,n);        }
     free_vector(agedc,1,n);        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     fclose(ficparo);           as a weighted average of prlim.
     fclose(ficres);        */
     /*  }*/        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
              for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
    /*________fin mle=1_________*/           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
            }    
         /* end probability of death */
    
     /* No more information from the sample is required now */        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          }
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  
     puts(line);        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
     fputs(line,ficparo);          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
   }        }
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  
        } /* End theta */
   fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);  
   printf("agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax, bage, fage);      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
   fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);  
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {  
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);goto end;      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
   }        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
  fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> <font size=\"6\">Imach, Version 0.7 </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">    
 Titre=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>  
 Total number of observations=%d <br>      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">        for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
 <li>Outputs files<br><br>\n          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
         - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n  
 - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
         - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
         - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
         - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
         - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
         - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>        }
         - Prevalences and population forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>      }
 <br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);    
       /* pptj */
  fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
  m=cptcoveff;      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}        for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
           varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
  j1=0;      /* end ppptj */
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){      /*  x centered again */
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
        j1++;      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
        if (cptcovn > 0) {   
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");      if (popbased==1) {
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)        if(mobilav ==0){
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[j1][cpt]]);          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
        }        }else{ /* mobilav */ 
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
 <img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);                prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){        }
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>      }
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);               
        }      /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {         computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident         as a weighted average of prlim.
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>      */
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
      }        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>      }    
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);      /* end probability of death */
      }  
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
 <img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
    }          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
  }        }
 fclose(fichtm);      } 
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/  
        fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {          fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;        }
   }      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
      } /* End age */
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */    /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
   k=0;    fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
   agebase=agemin;  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   agelim=agemax;  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   ftolpl=1.e-10;  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   i1=cptcoveff;    fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
         k=k+1;    /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/  */
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
            free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);    free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );    free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
         }    fflush(ficgp);
       }    fflush(fichtm); 
     }  }  /* end varevsij */
   fclose(ficrespl);  
   /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
    {
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);    /* Variance of prevalence limit */
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;    double **newm;
   }    double **dnewm,**doldm;
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
      int k, cptcode;
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;    double *xp;
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/    double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
   agelim=AGESUP;    double age,agelim;
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */    int theta;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    fprintf(ficresvpl, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart); 
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of stable prevalences \n");
   k=0;    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){        fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
       k=k+1;    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");  
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    xp=vector(1,npar);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
            
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    agelim = AGESUP;
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);        if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)      gp=vector(1,nlstate);
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);      gm=vector(1,nlstate);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");  
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)        }
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           }          gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
         }          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
     }        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   }        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
   /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/  
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   fclose(ficrespij);          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
       } /* End theta */
   if(stepm == 1) {  
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/      trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;  
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
   /*printf("calage= %f", calagedate);*/        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
            trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
   prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);  
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);goto end;        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
   }  
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);      fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);        fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
   free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);      free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
   /* Mobile average */      free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;      free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     } /* End age */
   if (mobilav==1) {  
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     for (agedeb=bage+3; agedeb<=fage-2; agedeb++)    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)  
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;  }
      
     for (agedeb=bage+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){  /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){  {
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){    int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
           }    int k=0,l, cptcode;
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;    int first=1, first1;
         }    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
       }    double **dnewm,**doldm;
     }      double *xp;
   }    double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;    double **mu;
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
     double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
   agelim=AGESUP;    int theta;
   /*hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; *//* Every year of age */    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
   hstepm=1;    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2 years/6 months = 4 */    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);  
   anprojmean=yp;    double ***varpij;
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);  
   mprojmean=yp;    strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
   jprojmean=yp;    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
     }
   fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
   if (popforecast==1) {    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL)    {      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);goto end;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
     }    }
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     i=1;        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF)    }
       {    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
         i=i+1;    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
       }    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     imx=i;    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
        printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
   }    fprintf(ficresprob, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){    fprintf(ficresprobcov, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
       k=k+1;    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {    fprintf(ficresprobcor, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
       }    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");  
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");  
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficresf," [Population]");      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
            fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
       for (cpt=0; cpt<4;cpt++) {        fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");        fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);        }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(bage-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;   */
         /*printf("agedeb=%.lf stepm=%d hstepm=%d nhstepm=%d \n",agedeb,stepm,hstepm,nhstepm);*/   xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);      varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
            first=1;
         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
           if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
             fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
           }  
           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
             kk1=0.;kk2=0;    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {            file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
               if (mobilav==1)    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];  and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
               else {   They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
                 /* fprintf(ficresf," p3=%.3f p=%.3f ", p3mat[i][j][h], probs[(int)(agedeb)+1][i][cptcod]);*/  It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
               }  would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
   standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
               if (popforecast==1) kk2=kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb];   Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
             }   and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
            To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
             if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){  
               fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);    cov[1]=1;
                  tj=cptcoveff;
               if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficresf," [%.f]", kk2);    if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
             }    j1=0;
           }    for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
         }      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ 
         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        j1++;
       }        if  (cptcovn>0) {
       }          fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
     }          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   }          fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   if (popforecast==1) {          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);          
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);          fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   }          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);          fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
   free_vector(weight,1,n);          
   fclose(ficresf);          
   }/* End forecasting */          fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
   else{          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     erreur=108;          fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
     printf("Error %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d\n", erreur, stepm);          
   }          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
         }
   strcpy(filerest,"t");        
   strcat(filerest,fileres);        for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {          cov[2]=age;
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;          for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
   }            cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);          }
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
   strcpy(filerese,"e");            cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
   strcat(filerese,fileres);          
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {          gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);          trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
   }          gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);          gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
       
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {              xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);            
   }            pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);            
             k=0;
   k=0;            for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){                k=k+1;
       k=k+1;                gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");              }
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)            }
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);            
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");      
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)            pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);            k=0;
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");            for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");                k=k+1;
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)                gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);              }
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");            }
        
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);            for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;              gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);            }
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);  
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
       varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);            for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                    trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");          
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
                  free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
       hf=1;          free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;          free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);          free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){  
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
         if (popbased==1) {          
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          k=0;
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];          for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
         }            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                      k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrest," %.0f",age);              mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){            }
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {          }
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*hf*eij[i][j][(int)age];          for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
           }            for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];              varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
         }  
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)          /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)            for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];            printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
         fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],hf*sqrt(vepp));            fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){            }*/
           fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[j],hf*sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));  
         }          fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");          fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
       }          fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
     }  
   }          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
                    fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
                  for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
  fclose(ficreseij);          }
  fclose(ficresvij);          i=0;
   fclose(ficrest);          for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
   fclose(ficpar);            for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);              i=i++;
   /*  scanf("%d ",i); */              fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/                for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                 fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
 strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");                fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);              }
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {            }
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);          }/* end of loop for state */
     exit(0);        } /* end of loop for age */
   }  
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);        /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
         /*
  k=0;          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
      k=k+1;          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
        fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");        */
        
      varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);        /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;        first1=1;
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);        for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
    }          for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
  }            if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
   fclose(ficresvpl);            for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
               for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/                if(l1==k1) continue;
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);                i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                  if(i<=j) continue;
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);                for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);                  if ((int)age %5==0){
                      v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                      v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);                    cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);                    mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);                    mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);                    c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                      /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);                    lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);                    lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                      /* Eigen vectors */
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);                    v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                     /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
   if(erreur >0)                    v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
     printf("End of Imach with error %d\n",erreur);                    v12=-v21;
   else   printf("End of Imach\n");                    v22=v11;
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */                    tnalp=v21/v11;
                      if(first1==1){
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/                      first1=0;
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/                      printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
   /*------ End -----------*/                    }
                     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
  end:                    /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
 #ifdef windows                    /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
   /* chdir(pathcd);*/                    if(first==1){
 #endif                      first=0;
  /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
  /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
  /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
  /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
  strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);   :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
  strcat(plotcmd," ");  %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
  strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);                              subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
  system(plotcmd);                              subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
 #ifdef windows                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
   while (z[0] != 'q') {                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
     chdir(path);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
     scanf("%s",z);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");                              mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
     else if (z[0] == 'e') {                              mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
       chdir(path);                    }else{
       system(optionfilehtm);                      first=0;
     }                      fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
   }                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
 #endif                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
 }                              mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }/* if first */
                   } /* age mod 5 */
                 } /* end loop age */
                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
               } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
           } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
       } /* loop covariates */
     }
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fclose(ficresprob);
     fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtmcov);
   }
   
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                     int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                     double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                     double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
     int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
      <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
   </ul>");
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
    - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
              jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
              stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
   
   fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d1.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d2.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
          /* Stable prevalence in each health state */
          for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
            fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
          }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
     int ng;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
      for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stable prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      }
     }
     /*2 eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
       
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
         k=2*i;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
       }
     }
     
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);
           
         } 
       }
     }
     
     /* CV preval stable (period) */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
         
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
         
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
         }
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
       } 
     }  
     
     /* proba elementaires */
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
             fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
      }
   
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                else
                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                ij=1;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                    ij++;
                  }
                  else
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                    if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                      ij++;
                    }
                    else
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     int *popage;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz(double x[])
   { 
     double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
   
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i]==1 & wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i]==0 & wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         if (wav[i]>1 & agecens[i]>15) {
           L=L+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
    
     return -2*L*num/sump;
   }
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
     int i,k;
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
     fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
     for (i=1;i<=2;i++) 
       fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
     fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
   
    for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
      fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
    
     fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
     int ng;
   
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
   
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
     fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small\n set log y\n"); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
   
   } 
   
   
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
     int NDIM=2;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     struct stat info;
     double agedeb, agefin,hf;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double **xi,tmp,delta;
   
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int *indx;
     char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE]; 
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
     int c,  h , cpt,l;
     int ju,jl, mi;
     int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
     int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     int agemortsup;
     float  sumlpop=0.;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double *severity;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
     double kk1, kk2;
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
     double **ximort;
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
     int *dcwave;
   
     char z[1]="c", occ;
   
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
     char strstart[80], *strt, strtend[80];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
     long total_usecs;
    
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
     curr_time=start_time;
     tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       scanf("%s",pathtot);
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
     split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
    /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
     /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
     if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
   
     ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
   
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     delti=delti3[1][1];
     /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       exit(0);
     }
     else if(mle==-3) {
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     }
     else{
       /* Read guess parameters */
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         j=0;
         for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           if(jj==i) continue;
           j++;
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           if(mle==1)
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
             if(mle==1){
               printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             }
             else
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           if(mle==1)
             printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         }
       }  
       fflush(ficlog);
   
   
       p=param[1][1];
       
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
             printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
       }
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
       /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%s",str);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
         for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           }
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       
       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
       strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
       strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
       if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
     }    /* End of mle != -3 */
   
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
     }
   
     n= lastobs;
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
   
     i=1;
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {
         for(j=0; line[j] != '\n';j++){  /* Untabifies line */
           if(line[j] == '\t')
             line[j] = ' ';
         }
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb); 
           strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         }
           
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         } 
         lstra=strlen(stra);
         if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
           stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
           num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
         }
         else
           num[i]=atol(stra);
           
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
           printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
   
         i=i+1;
       }
     }
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
        scanf("%d",i);*/
     imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
   
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
       if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
       if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
       }*/
      /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
        printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
     
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) */
    
      /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
        else weight[i]=1;*/
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
     Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
     Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
     Tage=ivector(1,15);      
      
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovn=j+1; 
       cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
       
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
         printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         goto end;
       }
       
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
   
       for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
         cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */ 
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
           cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
             cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=i;
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           }
           else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;
           }
           else {  /* Age is not in the model */
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
             Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
             cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=i;
             Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
             Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
             for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
               covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
             k1++;
             k2=k2+2;
           }
         }
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
         Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);
     fclose(fic);*/
   
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
     }
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0)
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a
                                    month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
               agemin=agev[m][i];
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
               agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           nberr++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           goto end;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax); 
   
     agegomp=(int)agemin;
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
   
      
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
   
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     Tcode=ivector(1,100);
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
         
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of 
                                    the estimations*/
     h=0;
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
       for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
             h++;
             if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
             /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
       
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
   
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
     if (mle==-3){
       ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
       cens=ivector(1,n);
       ageexmed=vector(1,n);
       agecens=vector(1,n);
       dcwave=ivector(1,n);
    
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         dcwave[i]=-1;
         for (j=1; j<=lastpass; j++)
           if (s[j][i]>nlstate) {
             dcwave[i]=j;
             /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
             break;
           }
       }
   
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
         if (wav[i]>0){
           ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
           j=wav[i];agecens[i]=1.; 
           if (ageexmed[i]>1 & wav[i]>0) agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
           cens[i]=1;
           
           if (ageexmed[i]<1) cens[i]=-1;
           if (agedc[i]< AGESUP & agedc[i]>1 & dcwave[i]>firstpass & dcwave[i]<=lastpass) cens[i]=0 ;
         }
         else cens[i]=-1;
       }
       
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
   
       p[1]=0.1; p[2]=0.1;
       /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
       
       
     printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
     strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort"); 
     strcat(filerespow,fileres);
     if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
     }
     fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
     /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
         if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
     */
     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
   
       powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
       fclose(ficrespow);
       
       hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM,delti, 1e-4, gompertz); 
   
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){ 
           printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         printf("\n ");
       }
       
       printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) 
         printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
   
   lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
      
        for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
         agemortsup=k;
         if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
       }
      
         for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
         lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
   
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
         lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
         sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
       }
   
    tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
         /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
         tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
          }
      
      
          printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
         printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
   
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,path); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                        stepm, weightopt,\
                        model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
   
       free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
     } /* Endof if mle==-3 */
   
     else{ /* For mle >=1 */
     
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
         mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
       }
       
       /*--------- results files --------------*/
       fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
       
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
           if (k != i) {
             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
               printf("%f ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
               jk++; 
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       if(mle!=0){
         /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
         ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
         hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if (j!=i) {
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       if(mle>=1)
         printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
       /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
       /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
       /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
       
       
       /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
          even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
       */
       for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
         jj=0;
         for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
             if(j==i) continue;
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               jj++;
               ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
               if(itimes==1){
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }else{
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }
               ll=0;
               for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                 for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   if(lj==li) continue;
                   for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                     ll++;
                     if(ll<=jj){
                       cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                       if(ll<jj){
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }else{
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }
                     }
                   } /* end lk */
                 } /* end lj */
               } /* end li */
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               fprintf(ficres,"\n");
               numlinepar++;
             } /* end k*/
           } /*end j */
         } /* end i */
       } /* end itimes */
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       fflush(ficres);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       estepm=0;
       fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
       if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
       if (fage <= 2) {
         bage = ageminpar;
         fage = agemaxpar;
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
       fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
       fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       
       dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
       dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
       fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
       
       
       
       /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
       /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,path); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                    model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                    jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
         
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
    
       free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
       free_lvector(num,1,n);
       free_vector(agedc,1,n);
       /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       fclose(ficparo);
       fclose(ficres);
   
   
       /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (stable prevalence) --------------*/
     
       strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
       strcat(filerespl,fileres);
       if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       fprintf(ficrespl, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"#Stable prevalence \n");
       fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
       prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
       agebase=ageminpar;
       agelim=agemaxpar;
       ftolpl=1.e-10;
       i1=cptcoveff;
       if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
           printf("\n#******");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
           printf("******\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
           
           for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       fclose(ficrespl);
   
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
     
       strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
       if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
       stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
       /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
       agelim=AGESUP;
       hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
       /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
       fprintf(ficrespij, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
       fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
           
           for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
   
             /*      nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
   
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                   fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
               fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
   
       varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
   
       fclose(ficrespij);
   
       probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
           for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
             probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
       /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
       /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
         /*      }  */
         /*      else{ */
         /*        erreur=108; */
         /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*      } */
       }
     
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
       strcpy(filerest,"t");
       strcat(filerest,fileres);
       if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
       strcpy(filerese,"e");
       strcat(filerese,fileres);
       if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
   
       strcpy(fileresv,"v");
       strcat(fileresv,fileres);
       if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
       /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
       prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
           ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       */
   
       if (mobilav!=0) {
         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
         if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
           fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
           printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         }
       }
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1; 
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);  
    
           vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav, strstart);
           if(popbased==1){
             varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav, strstart);
           }
   
           fprintf(ficrest, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
           fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
           for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
           epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
           for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             if (popbased==1) {
               if(mobilav ==0){
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
               }else{ /* mobilav */ 
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
               }
             }
           
             fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
             for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
               for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                 epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                 /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
               }
               epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
             }
   
             for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                 vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
             }
             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
         }
       }
       free_vector(weight,1,n);
       free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
       free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
       free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_ivector(cod,1,n);
       free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
       fclose(ficreseij);
       fclose(ficresvij);
       fclose(ficrest);
       fclose(ficpar);
     
       /*------- Variance of stable prevalence------*/   
   
       strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
       strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
       if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance of stable prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
         exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of stable prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
           varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
           free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         }
       }
   
       fclose(ficresvpl);
   
       /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
       if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
       free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     
       free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
       free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
       /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
       free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
   
       free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
       free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
   
   
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
     tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
     chdir(path);
   #ifndef UNIX
     strcpy(plotcmd,"\"");
   #endif
     strcat(plotcmd,pathimach);
     /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
     strcat(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
   #ifndef UNIX
     strcat(plotcmd,"\"");
   #endif
     if(stat(plotcmd,&info)){
       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
     }
     strcat(plotcmd," ");
     strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: %s",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
   
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf(" Problem with gnuplot\n");
     }
     printf(" Wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') {
         printf("Starting browser with: %s",optionfilehtm);fflush(stdout);
         system(optionfilehtm);
       }
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }
   
   
   

Removed from v.1.22  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.107


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