Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.18 and 1.111

version 1.18, 2002/02/20 17:17:09 version 1.111, 2006/01/25 20:38:18
Line 1 Line 1
      /* $Id$
 /*********************** Imach **************************************            $State$
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from cross-longitudinal    $Log$
   data. Cross-longitudinal consist in a first survey ("cross") where    Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
   individuals from different ages are interviewed on their health status    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
   or degree of  disability. At least a second wave of interviews    (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
   ("longitudinal") should  measure each new individual health status.    can be a simple dot '.'.
   Health expectancies are computed from the transistions observed between  
   waves and are computed for each degree of severity of disability (number    Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
   of life states). More degrees you consider, more time is necessary to    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
   reach the Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  
   The simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is    Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
   the probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave conditional    (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
   to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore the model is:  
   log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where 'age' is age and 'sex'    Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
   is a covariate. If you want to have a more complex model than "constant and    Gnuplot problem appeared...
   age", you should modify the program where the markup    To be fixed
     *Covariates have to be included here again* invites you to do it.  
   More covariates you add, less is the speed of the convergence.    Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
     Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
   The advantage that this computer programme claims, comes from that if the  
   delay between waves is not identical for each individual, or if some    Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
   individual missed an interview, the information is not rounded or lost, but    Some cleaning and links added in html output
   taken into account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
   hPijx is the probability to be    Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
   observed in state i at age x+h conditional to the observed state i at age    *** empty log message ***
   x. The delay 'h' can be split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of  
   unobserved intermediate  states. This elementary transition (by month or    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
   quarter trimester, semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
   The hPx matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply hPijx.    that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
     (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.    health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
      the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).  
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
   from the European Union.  
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and    Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .  
   **********************************************************************/    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
      Fix on curr_time
 #include <math.h>  
 #include <stdio.h>    Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
 #include <stdlib.h>    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
 #include <unistd.h>  
     Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
 #define MAXLINE 256    *** empty log message ***
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80  
 /*#define DEBUG*/    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
 #define windows    New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
     This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
     from other sources like vital statistic data.
 #define NINTERVMAX 8  
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */    The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */  
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
 #define MAXN 20000    former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */  
 #define AGESUP 130    The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
 #define AGEBASE 40    the slope with 95% confident intervals.
   
     Current limitations:
 int nvar;    A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;    model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
 int npar=NPARMAX;    B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */  
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
 int ncovmodel, ncov;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
 int popbased=0;    suppressed.
   
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
 int mle, weightopt;  
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    * imach.c (Repository):
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */  
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf;    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
 FILE *ficgp, *fichtm,*ficresprob,*ficpop;    Just cleaning
 FILE *ficreseij;  
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
  FILE  *ficresvij;    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
  FILE  *ficresvpl;    (Module): Version 0.96b
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];  
     Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
 #define NR_END 1    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
 #define FREE_ARG char*    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10  
     Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
 #define NRANSI    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
 #define ITMAX 200    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
     helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
 #define TOL 2.0e-4    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
     concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660  
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
     mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
 #define GOLD 1.618034    of the covariance matrix to be input.
 #define GLIMIT 100.0  
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
     (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    of the covariance matrix to be input.
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))  
      Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)  
     Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
 static double sqrarg;    Version 0.96
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)  
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
     (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
 int imx;    routine fileappend.
 int stepm;  
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
 int m,nb;    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
     interview.
 double *weight;    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
 int **s; /* Status */    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;    truncation)
     (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */  
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
 /**************** split *************************/    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name )    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
 {    parcimony.
    char *s;                             /* pointer */    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */  
     Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */    *** empty log message ***
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );  
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */  
       extern char       *getwd( );  */
   /*
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {     Interpolated Markov Chain
 #else  
       extern char       *getcwd( );    Short summary of the programme:
     
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
 #endif    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
       }    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
    }    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
 }    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
     you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
     convergence.
 /******************************************/  
     The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
 void replace(char *s, char*t)    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
 {    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
   int i;    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
   int lg=20;    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
   i=0;  
   lg=strlen(t);    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
     (s[i] = t[i]);    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
   }    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
 }    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
     and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)    hPijx.
 {  
   int i,j=0;    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
   int lg=20;    of the life expectancies. It also computes the stable prevalence. 
   i=0;    
   lg=strlen(s);    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
   }    from the European Union.
   return j;    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
 }    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
     can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)  
 {    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
   int i,lg,j,p=0;    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
   i=0;    
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {    **********************************************************************/
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;  /*
   }    main
     read parameterfile
   lg=strlen(t);    read datafile
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {    concatwav
     (u[j] = t[j]);    freqsummary
   }    if (mle >= 1)
      u[p]='\0';      mlikeli
     print results files
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {    if mle==1 
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);       computes hessian
   }    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
 }        begin-prev-date,...
     open gnuplot file
 /********************** nrerror ********************/    open html file
     stable prevalence
 void nrerror(char error_text[])     for age prevalim()
 {    h Pij x
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");    variance of p varprob
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
   exit(1);    health expectancies
 }    Variance-covariance of DFLE
 /*********************** vector *******************/    prevalence()
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)     movingaverage()
 {    varevsij() 
   double *v;    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    total life expectancies
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");    Variance of stable prevalence
   return v-nl+NR_END;   end
 }  */
   
 /************************ free vector ******************/  
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)  
 {   
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  #include <math.h>
 }  #include <stdio.h>
   #include <stdlib.h>
 /************************ivector *******************************/  #include <string.h>
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)  #include <unistd.h>
 {  
   int *v;  #include <limits.h>
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  #include <sys/types.h>
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");  #include <sys/stat.h>
   return v-nl+NR_END;  #include <errno.h>
 }  extern int errno;
   
 /******************free ivector **************************/  /* #include <sys/time.h> */
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)  #include <time.h>
 {  #include "timeval.h"
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  
 }  /* #include <libintl.h> */
   /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/  
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  #define MAXLINE 256
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */  
 {  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
   int **m;  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
    
   /* allocate pointers to rows */  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  
   m += NR_END;  #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
   m -= nrl;  #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
    
    #define NINTERVMAX 8
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  #define MAXN 20000
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
    #define AGESUP 130
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  #define AGEBASE 40
    #define AGEGOMP 10. /* Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */  #ifdef UNIX
   return m;  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
 }  #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
   #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/  #else
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
       int **m;  #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */  #endif
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  /* $Id$ */
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));  /* $State$ */
 }  
   char version[]="Imach version 0.98b, January 2006, INED-EUROREVES ";
 /******************* matrix *******************************/  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
 {  int nvar;
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;  int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
   double **m;  int npar=NPARMAX;
   int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
   m += NR_END;  int popbased=0;
   m -= nrl;  
   int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  int ijmin, ijmax; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */ 
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
                      to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  int mle, weightopt;
   return m;  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
 }  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
   int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
 /*************************free matrix ************************/             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
 {  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
 }  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
   int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)  long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
 {  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
   double ***m;  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
   FILE *ficresilk;
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
   m += NR_END;  FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
   m -= nrl;  FILE *ficreseij;
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  FILE  *ficresvij;
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  FILE  *ficresvpl;
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
   char title[MAXLINE];
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
   char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;  int  outcmd=0;
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;  
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;  
    char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;  
   }  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
   return m;  
 }  struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
   struct timezone tzp;
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/  extern int gettimeofday();
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)  struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
 {  long time_value;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));  extern long time();
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  
 }  char *endptr;
   long lval;
 /***************** f1dim *************************/  
 extern int ncom;  #define NR_END 1
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;  #define FREE_ARG char*
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
    
 double f1dim(double x)  #define NRANSI 
 {  #define ITMAX 200 
   int j;  
   double f;  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
   double *xt;  
    #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
   xt=vector(1,ncom);  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);  
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);  #define GOLD 1.618034 
   return f;  #define GLIMIT 100.0 
 }  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
   
 /*****************brent *************************/  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)  #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
 {  #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   int iter;    
   double a,b,d,etemp;  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;  #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
   double ftemp;  
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;  static double sqrarg;
   double e=0.0;  #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
    #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);  int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);  
   x=w=v=bx;  int imx; 
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);  int stepm=1;
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
     xm=0.5*(a+b);  
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);  int estepm;
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/  /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);  
 #ifdef DEBUG  int m,nb;
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);  long *num;
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */  int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
 #endif  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){  double **pmmij, ***probs;
       *xmin=x;  double *ageexmed,*agecens;
       return fx;  double dateintmean=0;
     }  
     ftemp=fu;  double *weight;
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {  int **s; /* Status */
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);  double *agedc, **covar, idx;
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);  int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;  double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
       q=2.0*(q-r);  
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;  double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
       q=fabs(q);  double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
       etemp=e;  
       e=d;  /**************** split *************************/
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))  static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  {
       else {    /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
         d=p/q;       the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
         u=x+d;    */ 
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);    int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
       }  
     } else {    l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
     }    ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
     fu=(*f)(u);      strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
     if (fu <= fx) {      /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;        printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)      /* get current working directory */
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
         } else {      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;        return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {      }
             v=w;      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
             w=u;      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
             fv=fw;    } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
             fw=fu;      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
             v=u;      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
             fv=fu;      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
           }      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
         }      dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
   }      printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");    }
   *xmin=x;    /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
   return fx;    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
 }    if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
       dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/      dirc[l1+1] = 0; 
       printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,    }
             double (*func)(double))    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
 {    if (ss >0){
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;      ss++;
   double fu;      strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
        l1= strlen( name);
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);      l2= strlen(ss)+1;
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);      strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
   if (*fb > *fa) {      finame[l1-l2]= 0;
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)    }
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)  
       }    return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);  }
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);  
   while (*fb > *fc) {  
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);  /******************************************/
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);  
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));  {
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);    int i;
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {    int lg=0;
       fu=(*func)(u);    i=0;
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {    lg=strlen(t);
       fu=(*func)(u);    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
       if (fu < *fc) {      (s[i] = t[i]);
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))    }
           }  }
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {  
       u=ulim;  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
       fu=(*func)(u);  {
     } else {    int i,j=0;
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);    int lg=20;
       fu=(*func)(u);    i=0;
     }    lg=strlen(s);
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
       }    }
 }    return j;
   }
 /*************** linmin ************************/  
   void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
 int ncom;  {
 double *pcom,*xicom;    /* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before first occurence of char 'occ' 
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);       and v starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
         gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))    int i,lg,j,p=0;
 {    i=0;
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,    for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);      if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
   double f1dim(double x);    }
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,  
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));    lg=strlen(t);
   int j;    for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;      (u[j] = t[j]);
   double fx,fb,fa;    }
         u[p]='\0';
   ncom=n;  
   pcom=vector(1,n);     for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
   xicom=vector(1,n);      if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
   nrfunc=func;    }
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  }
     pcom[j]=p[j];  
     xicom[j]=xi[j];  /********************** nrerror ********************/
   }  
   ax=0.0;  void nrerror(char error_text[])
   xx=1.0;  {
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
 #ifdef DEBUG    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);  }
 #endif  /*********************** vector *******************/
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  double *vector(int nl, int nh)
     xi[j] *= xmin;  {
     p[j] += xi[j];    double *v;
   }    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);    return v-nl+NR_END;
 }  }
   
 /*************** powell ************************/  /************************ free vector ******************/
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
             double (*func)(double []))  {
 {    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,  }
               double (*func)(double []));  
   int i,ibig,j;  /************************ivector *******************************/
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
   double fp,fptt;  {
   double *xits;    int *v;
   pt=vector(1,n);    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
   ptt=vector(1,n);    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
   xit=vector(1,n);    return v-nl+NR_END;
   xits=vector(1,n);  }
   *fret=(*func)(p);  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];  /******************free ivector **************************/
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
     fp=(*fret);  {
     ibig=0;    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
     del=0.0;  }
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);  
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)  /************************lvector *******************************/
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
     printf("\n");  {
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    long *v;
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
       fptt=(*fret);    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
 #ifdef DEBUG    return v-nl+NR_END;
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);  }
 #endif  
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  /******************free lvector **************************/
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {  {
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
         ibig=i;  }
       }  
 #ifdef DEBUG  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);  { 
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
       }    int **m; 
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)    
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
       printf("\n");    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
 #endif    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
     }    m += NR_END; 
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {    m -= nrl; 
 #ifdef DEBUG    
       int k[2],l;    
       k[0]=1;    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
       k[1]=-1;    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
       printf("\n");    
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);    return m; 
         }  } 
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));  
       }  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
 #endif  void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
         int **m;
         long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
       free_vector(xit,1,n);       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
       free_vector(xits,1,n);  { 
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
       free_vector(pt,1,n);    free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
       return;  } 
     }  
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");  /******************* matrix *******************************/
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];  {
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
       pt[j]=p[j];    double **m;
     }  
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
     if (fptt < fp) {    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);    m += NR_END;
       if (t < 0.0) {    m -= nrl;
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];    m[nrl] += NR_END;
         }    m[nrl] -= ncl;
 #ifdef DEBUG  
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)    return m;
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) 
         printf("\n");     */
 #endif  }
       }  
     }  /*************************free matrix ************************/
   }  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
 }  {
     free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   }
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)  
 {  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */  {
     long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
   int i, ii,j,k;    double ***m;
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;  
   double **matprod2();    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
   double **newm;    m += NR_END;
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */    m -= nrl;
   
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    m[nrl] += NR_END;
     }    m[nrl] -= ncl;
   
    cov[1]=1.;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
    
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
     newm=savm;    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
      cov[2]=agefin;    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
        m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {    
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
         /*printf("ij=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf\n",ij, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k]);*/      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
       }      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];    }
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)    return m; 
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
              &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/    */
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/  }
   
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
   void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
     savm=oldm;  {
     oldm=newm;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
     maxmax=0.;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
       min=1.;  }
       max=0.;  
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {  /*************** function subdirf ***********/
         sumnew=0;  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];  {
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
       }    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       maxmin=max-min;    return tmpout;
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);  }
     }  
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
       return prlim;  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
     }  {
   }    
 }    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
     strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/    strcat(tmpout,"/");
     strcat(tmpout,preop);
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
 {    return tmpout;
   double s1, s2;  }
   /*double t34;*/  
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
   char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  {
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){    
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];    strcat(tmpout,"/");
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/    strcat(tmpout,preop);
       }    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
       ps[i][j]=s2;    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/    return tmpout;
     }  }
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  /***************** f1dim *************************/
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  extern int ncom; 
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
       }  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
       ps[i][j]=(s2);   
     }  double f1dim(double x) 
   }  { 
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/    int j; 
     double f;
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){    double *xt; 
      s1=0;   
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);    return f; 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  } 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  /*****************brent *************************/
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */  { 
   } /* end i */    int iter; 
     double a,b,d,etemp;
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){    double fu,fv,fw,fx;
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){    double ftemp;
       ps[ii][jj]=0;    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
       ps[ii][ii]=1;    double e=0.0; 
     }   
   }    a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
     b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
     x=w=v=bx; 
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);      xm=0.5*(a+b); 
    }      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
     printf("\n ");      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
     }      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
 /*  #ifdef DEBUG
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
   goto end;*/      fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
     return ps;      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
 }  #endif
       if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/        *xmin=x; 
         return fx; 
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)      } 
 {      ftemp=fu;
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */        q=2.0*(q-r); 
   long i, j, k;        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)        q=fabs(q); 
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)        etemp=e; 
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)        e=d; 
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
           d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
   return out;        else { 
 }          d=p/q; 
           u=x+d; 
           if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
         } 
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )      } else { 
 {        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month      } 
      duration (i.e. until      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.      fu=(*f)(u); 
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step      if (fu <= fx) { 
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
      included manually here.          SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
           } else { 
      */            if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
             if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
   int i, j, d, h, k;              v=w; 
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];              w=u; 
   double **newm;              fv=fw; 
               fw=fu; 
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */            } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)              v=u; 
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){              fv=fu; 
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);            } 
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);          } 
     }    } 
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){    *xmin=x; 
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){    return fx; 
       newm=savm;  } 
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */  
       cov[1]=1.;  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;  
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)              double (*func)(double)) 
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  { 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];    double fu; 
    
     *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/    *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/    if (*fb > *fa) { 
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));        SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
       savm=oldm;        } 
       oldm=newm;    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
     }    *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)    while (*fb > *fc) { 
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
          */        (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
       }      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
   } /* end h */      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
   return po;        fu=(*func)(u); 
 }      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
         fu=(*func)(u); 
         if (fu < *fc) { 
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
 double func( double *x)            SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
 {            } 
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];        u=ulim; 
   double **out;        fu=(*func)(u); 
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */      } else { 
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
   long ipmx;        fu=(*func)(u); 
   /*extern weight */      } 
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/        SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)        } 
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);  } 
   */  
   cov[1]=1.;  /*************** linmin ************************/
   
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;  int ncom; 
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){  double *pcom,*xicom;
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){   
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  { 
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
         newm=savm;                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;    double f1dim(double x); 
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {    void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];                double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
         }    int j; 
            double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,    double fx,fb,fa;
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));   
         savm=oldm;    ncom=n; 
         oldm=newm;    pcom=vector(1,n); 
            xicom=vector(1,n); 
            nrfunc=func; 
       } /* end mult */    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
            pcom[j]=p[j]; 
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);      xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/    } 
       ipmx +=1;    ax=0.0; 
       sw += weight[i];    xx=1.0; 
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
     } /* end of wave */    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
   } /* end of individual */  #ifdef DEBUG
     printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */  #endif
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   return -l;      xi[j] *= xmin; 
 }      p[j] += xi[j]; 
     } 
     free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
   } 
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))  
 {  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
   int i,j, iter;  {
   double **xi,*delti;    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
   double fret;    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
   printf("Powell\n");    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);    sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
     return ascdiff;
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));  }
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f ",iter,func(p));  
   /*************** powell ************************/
 }  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
               double (*func)(double [])) 
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/  { 
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
 {                double (*func)(double [])); 
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;    int i,ibig,j; 
   double **hess;    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
   int i, j,jk;    double fp,fptt;
   int *indx;    double *xits;
     int niterf, itmp;
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);  
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);    pt=vector(1,n); 
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;    ptt=vector(1,n); 
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;    xit=vector(1,n); 
     xits=vector(1,n); 
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);    *fret=(*func)(p); 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){      fp=(*fret); 
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);      ibig=0; 
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);      del=0.0; 
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/      last_time=curr_time;
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/      (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
   }      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
        /*    fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {      fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {      */
       if (j>i) {     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];            fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/      }
       }      printf("\n");
     }      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   }      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
   printf("\n");      if(*iter <=3){
         tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tm));
    /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        forecast_time=curr_time; 
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
   x=vector(1,npar);        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
   indx=ivector(1,npar);          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);        for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
           forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {          tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;  /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
     x[j]=1;          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);          itmp = strlen(strfor);
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){          if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
     }          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
   }          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
         }
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");      }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);        fptt=(*fret); 
     }  #ifdef DEBUG
     printf("\n");        printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   }        fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   #endif
   /* Recompute Inverse */        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
           del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");          ibig=i; 
         } 
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  #ifdef DEBUG
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
     x[j]=1;        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
       y[i][j]=x[i];          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
     }        }
     printf("\n");        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   }          printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
   */          fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
         }
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);        printf("\n");
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   free_vector(x,1,npar);  #endif
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);      } 
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
   #ifdef DEBUG
         int k[2],l;
 }        k[0]=1;
         k[1]=-1;
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
 {        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   int i;          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
   int l=1, lmax=20;          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
   double k1,k2;        }
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];        printf("\n");
   double res;        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
   double fx;          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   int k=0,kmax=10;            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
   double l1;            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
   fx=func(x);          }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
     l1=pow(10,l);        }
     delts=delt;  #endif
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){  
       delt = delta*(l1*k);  
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
       k1=func(p2)-fx;        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;        free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
       k2=func(p2)-fx;        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */        return; 
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */      } 
            if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
 #ifdef DEBUG      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
 #endif        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */        pt[j]=p[j]; 
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){      } 
         k=kmax;      fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
       }      if (fptt < fp) { 
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;        if (t < 0.0) { 
       }          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         delts=delt;            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
       }            xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
     }          }
   }  #ifdef DEBUG
   delti[theta]=delts;          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
   return res;          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
            for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
 }            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)          }
 {          printf("\n");
   int i;          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;  #endif
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;        }
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];      } 
   int k;    } 
   } 
   fx=func(x);  
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {  /**** Prevalence limit (stable prevalence)  ****************/
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;  {
     k1=func(p2)-fx;    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
         matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;  
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    int i, ii,j,k;
     k2=func(p2)-fx;    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
      double **matprod2();
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;    double **newm;
     k3=func(p2)-fx;    double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
    
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     k4=func(p2)-fx;        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */      }
 #ifdef DEBUG  
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);     cov[1]=1.;
 #endif   
   }   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
   return res;    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
 }      newm=savm;
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/       cov[2]=agefin;
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)    
 {        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
   int i,imax,j,k;          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
   double big,dum,sum,temp;          /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
   double *vv;        }
          for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
   vv=vector(1,n);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
   *d=1.0;          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  
     big=0.0;        /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
     vv[i]=1.0/big;  
   }      savm=oldm;
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {      oldm=newm;
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {      maxmax=0.;
       sum=a[i][j];      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];        min=1.;
       a[i][j]=sum;        max=0.;
     }        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
     big=0.0;          sumnew=0;
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
       sum=a[i][j];          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
       a[i][j]=sum;        }
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {        maxmin=max-min;
         big=dum;        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
         imax=i;      }
       }      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
     }        return prlim;
     if (j != imax) {      }
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {    }
         dum=a[imax][k];  }
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];  
         a[j][k]=dum;  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
       }  
       *d = -(*d);  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
       vv[imax]=vv[j];  {
     }    double s1, s2;
     indx[j]=imax;    /*double t34;*/
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;    int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
     if (j != n) {  
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;        for(j=1; j<i;j++){
     }          for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
   }            /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */            s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
 ;  /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
 }          }
           ps[i][j]=s2;
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])  /*      printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
 {        }
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   double sum;          for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
              s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2); */
     ip=indx[i];          }
     sum=b[ip];          ps[i][j]=s2;
     b[ip]=b[i];        }
     if (ii)      }
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];      /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
     else if (sum) ii=i;      
     b[i]=sum;      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
   }        s1=0;
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
     sum=b[i];          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
   }        ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
 }        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
           ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
 /************ Frequencies ********************/        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1,double **mint,double **anint, int boolprev, double dateprev1,double dateprev2)          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
 {  /* Some frequencies */        /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
        } /* end i */
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;      
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */      for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
   double *pp;        for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
   double pos, k2;          ps[ii][jj]=0;
   FILE *ficresp;          ps[ii][ii]=1;
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];        }
       }
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);      
   probs= ma3x(1,130 ,1,8, 1,8);  
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");  /*        for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);  /*       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {  /*         printf("ddd %lf ",ps[ii][jj]); */
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);  /*       } */
     exit(0);  /*       printf("\n "); */
   }  /*        } */
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);  /*        printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]); */
   j1=0;         /*
         for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
   j=cptcoveff;        goto end;*/
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}      return ps;
   }
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){  
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
        j1++;  
        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
          scanf("%d", i);*/  {
         for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)         b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
            for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
              freq[i][jk][m]=0;       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
               a pointer to pointers identical to out */
        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {    long i, j, k;
          bool=1;    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
          if  (cptcovn>0) {      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)        for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
                bool=0;  
          }    return out;
          if (bool==1) {  }
            if (boolprev==1){  
              for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){  
                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;  
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];  {
              }    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
            }       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
            else {       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
             for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
              if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
              if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;       for the memory).
              if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
              freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];       included manually here. 
              freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];  
              }       */
             }  
            }    int i, j, d, h, k;
           }    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
        }    double **newm;
         if  (cptcovn>0) {  
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
        fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         }        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);      }
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
            for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
   for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
     if(i==(int)agemax+3)        newm=savm;
       printf("Total");        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
     else        cov[1]=1.;
       printf("Age %d", i);        cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
       for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
     }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
       for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)  
         pos += freq[jk][m][i];  
       if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
       else        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     }        savm=oldm;
         oldm=newm;
      for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      }
       for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
      }          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
           /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
     for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)           */
       pos += pp[jk];        }
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    } /* end h */
       if(pos>=1.e-5)    return po;
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);  }
       else  
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);  
       if( i <= (int) agemax){  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
         if(pos>=1.e-5){  double func( double *x)
           fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);  {
           probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
           /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
         }    double **out;
       else    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
           fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
       }    int s1, s2;
     }    double bbh, survp;
     for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)    long ipmx;
       for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)    /*extern weight */
         if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
     if(i <= (int) agemax)    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
       fprintf(ficresp,"\n");    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
     printf("\n");      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     }    */
     }    cov[1]=1.;
  }  
      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   fclose(ficresp);  
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);    if(mle==1){
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
 }  /* End of Freq */        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
           for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
 /************ Prevalence ********************/            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
 void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1, double **mint,double **anint,int boolprev, double dateprev1, double dateprev2)              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 {  /* Some frequencies */              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
              }
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */            newm=savm;
   double *pp;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   double pos, k2;            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);            }
   probs= ma3x(1,130 ,1,8, 1,8);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);            savm=oldm;
   j1=0;            oldm=newm;
            } /* end mult */
   j=cptcoveff;        
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}          /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
            /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
       j1++;           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
             * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)             * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)             * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)           * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
           freq[i][jk][m]=0;           * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
                 * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
         bool=1;           */
         if  (cptcovn>0) {          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
               bool=0;          /* bias bh is positive if real duration
               }           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
         if (bool==1) {           */
           if (boolprev==1){          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
             for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known 
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;               then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to 
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];               die between last step unit time and current  step unit time, 
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];               which is also equal to probability to die before dh 
             }               minus probability to die before dh-stepm . 
           }               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
           else {          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
             for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){          health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
               k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
               if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
                 if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
                 if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;          introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
               }          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
             }          and month of death but the probability to survive from last
           }          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
         }          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
       }          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
         for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){          mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
             for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)          lower mortality.
               pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];            */
           }            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  
             for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)  
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];          } else if  (s2==-2) {
         }            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
                      survp += out[s1][j];
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            lli= survp;
            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          }
              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          
          }          else if  (s2==-4) {
                      for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
          for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];              survp += out[s1][j];
             lli= survp;
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){                    }
            if( i <= (int) agemax){          
              if(pos>=1.e-5){          else if  (s2==-5) {
                probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++) 
              }              survp += out[s1][j];
            }            lli= survp;
          }          }
            
         }  
     }          else{
   }            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
              /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
            } 
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
            /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
 }  /* End of Freq */          ipmx +=1;
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/          sw += weight[i];
           ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)        } /* end of wave */
 {      } /* end of individual */
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.    }  else if(mle==2){
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
      */            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
               oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   int i, mi, m;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;            }
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
             newm=savm;
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   double sum=0.;            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   jmin=1e+5;              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   jmax=-1;            }
   jmean=0.;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     mi=0;            savm=oldm;
     m=firstpass;            oldm=newm;
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){          } /* end mult */
       if(s[m][i]>=1)        
         mw[++mi][i]=m;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
       if(m >=lastpass)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         break;          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
       else          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
         m++;          ipmx +=1;
     }/* end while */          sw += weight[i];
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */        } /* end of wave */
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */      } /* end of individual */
          /* Only death is a correct wave */    }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
       mw[mi][i]=m;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
     }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     wav[i]=mi;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     if(mi==0)            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   }              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             }
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){            newm=savm;
       if (stepm <=0)            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         dh[mi][i]=1;            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       else{              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {            }
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */            savm=oldm;
           k=k+1;            oldm=newm;
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;          } /* end mult */
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;        
           sum=sum+j;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           /* if (j<10) printf("j=%d num=%d ",j,i); */          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           }          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
         }          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
         else{          ipmx +=1;
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));          sw += weight[i];
           k=k+1;          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;        } /* end of wave */
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;      } /* end of individual */
           /*   if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
           sum=sum+j;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
         }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         jk= j/stepm;        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         jl= j -jk*stepm;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         if(jl <= -ju)              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
           dh[mi][i]=jk;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         else            }
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)            newm=savm;
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
       }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     }              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   }            }
   jmean=sum/k;          
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
  }                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/            savm=oldm;
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)            oldm=newm;
 {          } /* end mult */
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;        
   int cptcode=0;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   cptcoveff=0;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
            if( s2 > nlstate){ 
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;          }else{
             lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {          }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {          ipmx +=1;
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);          sw += weight[i];
       Ndum[ij]++;          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;        } /* end of wave */
     }      } /* end of individual */
     }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     }        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     ij=1;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
               oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {            }
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;            newm=savm;
           ij++;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       }              }
     }          
   }              out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                          1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;            savm=oldm;
             oldm=newm;
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {          } /* end mult */
       ij=Tvar[i];        
       Ndum[ij]++;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     }          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
  ij=1;          ipmx +=1;
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {          sw += weight[i];
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncov)){          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
      ij++;        } /* end of wave */
    }      } /* end of individual */
  }    } /* End of if */
      for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
     cptcoveff=ij-1;    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
 }    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
     return -l;
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/  }
   
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
 {  double funcone( double *x)
   /* Health expectancies */  {
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
   double age, agelim,hf;    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
   double ***p3mat;    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
      double **out;
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");    double llt;
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    int s1, s2;
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    double bbh, survp;
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);    /*extern weight */
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
     /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /*  Every j years of age (in month) */    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     */
   agelim=AGESUP;    cov[1]=1.;
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);  
     /* Typically if 20 years = 20*12/6=40 stepm */    for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically 40/4=10 */      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
           }
         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          newm=savm;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
           eij[i][j][(int)age] +=p3mat[i][j][h];            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         }          }
              out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     hf=1;                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;          savm=oldm;
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%.0f",age );          oldm=newm;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        } /* end mult */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){        
         fprintf(ficreseij," %.4f", hf*eij[i][j][(int)age]);        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
       }        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        /* bias is positive if real duration
   }         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
 }         */
         if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
 /************ Variance ******************/          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)        } else if (mle==1){
 {          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
   /* Variance of health expectancies */        } else if(mle==2){
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
   double **newm;        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
   double **dnewm,**doldm;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
   int k, cptcode;          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
   double *xp;        } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
   double **gp, **gm;          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;        } /* End of if */
   double ***p3mat;        ipmx +=1;
   double age,agelim;        sw += weight[i];
   int theta;        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");        if(globpr){
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %1d %1d %1d %1d %3d %10.6f %6.4f\
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)   %10.6f %10.6f %10.6f ", \
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
             llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
   xp=vector(1,npar);            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);          }
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
          }
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */      } /* end of wave */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    } /* end of individual */
   agelim = AGESUP;    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */      gipmx=ipmx;
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      gsw=sw;
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);    }
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);    return -l;
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  }
   
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){  
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */  /*************** function likelione ***********/
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
       }  {
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);       the selection of individuals/waves and
        to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
       if (popbased==1) {       Plotting could be done.
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)     */
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];    int k;
       }  
          if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
         }        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
       }      }
          fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);        for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
       fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
       if (popbased==1) {    }
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
       }    if(*globpri !=0){
       fclose(ficresilk);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      fflush(fichtm); 
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)    } 
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];    return;
         }  }
       }  
   
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)  /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){  
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
         }  {
     } /* End theta */    int i,j, iter;
     double **xi;
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    double fret;
     double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)    /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
         xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);    }
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
       }        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
     }    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
     h=1;  
     if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );  
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    fclose(ficrespow);
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
       }    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");  
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  }
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  {
   } /* End age */    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
      double **hess;
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);    int i, j,jk;
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    int *indx;
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  
     double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
 }    double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
     void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)    double gompertz(double p[]);
 {    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */  
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
   double **newm;    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
   double **dnewm,**doldm;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
   int k, cptcode;      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
   double *xp;     
   double *gp, *gm;       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
   double **gradg, **trgradg;      
   double age,agelim;      /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
   int theta;          printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
        }
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");    
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);        if (j>i) { 
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
           fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
   xp=vector(1,npar);          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);          
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
            /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */        }
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */      }
   agelim = AGESUP;    }
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */    printf("\n");
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;  
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);    
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);    a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    x=vector(1,npar);
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */    indx=ivector(1,npar);
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       }      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
          for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */      x[j]=1;
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)        matcov[i][j]=x[i];
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];      }
     }
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];    printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
     } /* End theta */    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
         printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)      }
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];      printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    }
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;  
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);    /* Recompute Inverse */
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
   
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);      x[j]=1;
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);        y[i][j]=x[i];
   } /* End age */        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      }
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      printf("\n");
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     }
 }    */
   
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
 void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
 {    free_vector(x,1,npar);
   int i, j;    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
   int k=0, cptcode;    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
   double **dnewm,**doldm;  
   double *xp;  
   double *gp, *gm;  }
   double **gradg, **trgradg;  
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
   int theta;  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];  {
     int i;
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");    int l=1, lmax=20;
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);    double k1,k2;
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);    double res;
   }    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
   printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);    double fx;
      int k=0,kmax=10;
     double l1;
   xp=vector(1,npar);  
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);    fx=func(x);
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
      for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
   cov[1]=1;      l1=pow(10,l);
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){      delts=delt;
     cov[2]=age;      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);        delt = delta*(l1*k);
     trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
     gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        k1=func(p2)-fx;
     gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
            k2=func(p2)-fx;
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        
        #ifdef DEBUG
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
            fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
       k=0;  #endif
       for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
            k=k+1;          k=kmax;
           gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];        }
         }        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
       }          k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
         }
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          delts=delt;
            }
       }
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);    }
       k=0;    delti[theta]=delts;
       for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){    return res; 
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){    
           k=k+1;  }
           gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];  
         }  double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
       }  {
          int i;
        for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)    int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
            gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];      double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
     }    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
     int k;
      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)  
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    fx=func(x);
       trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
        for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
       k1=func(p2)-fx;
      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);    
       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
      k=0;      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
      for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){      k2=func(p2)-fx;
        for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){    
          k=k+1;      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
          gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
         }      k3=func(p2)-fx;
      }    
            p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
      /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){      k4=func(p2)-fx;
              res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
   #ifdef DEBUG
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
      }*/      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   #endif
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);    }
     return res;
   for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){  }
     if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);  
 if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
   }  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
   { 
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    int i,imax,j,k; 
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    double big,dum,sum,temp; 
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);    double *vv; 
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);   
 }    vv=vector(1,n); 
  free_vector(xp,1,npar);    *d=1.0; 
 fclose(ficresprob);    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
  exit(0);      big=0.0; 
 }      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
         if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
 /***********************************************/      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
 /**************** Main Program *****************/      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
 /***********************************************/    } 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
 /*int main(int argc, char *argv[])*/      for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
 int main()        sum=a[i][j]; 
 {        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
         a[i][j]=sum; 
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;      } 
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;      big=0.0; 
   double agemin=1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
         sum=a[i][j]; 
   double fret;        for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
   double **xi,tmp,delta;          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
         a[i][j]=sum; 
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
   double ***p3mat;          big=dum; 
   int *indx;          imax=i; 
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];        } 
   char title[MAXLINE];      } 
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];      if (j != imax) { 
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];          dum=a[imax][k]; 
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];          a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];          a[j][k]=dum; 
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];        } 
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;        *d = -(*d); 
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */        vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
   int c,  h , cpt,l;      } 
   int ju,jl, mi;      indx[j]=imax; 
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;      if (j != n) { 
   int mobilav=0, fprev, lprev ,fprevfore=1, lprevfore=1,nforecast,popforecast=0;        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
   int hstepm, nhstepm;        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
   int *popage,boolprev=0;/*boolprev=0 if date and zero if wave*/      } 
     } 
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;    free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
   double ftolpl=FTOL;  ;
   double **prlim;  } 
   double *severity;  
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */  void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
   double  *p;  { 
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */    double sum; 
   double *delti; /* Scale */   
   double ***eij, ***vareij;    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */      ip=indx[i]; 
   double *epj, vepp;      sum=b[ip]; 
   double kk1, kk2;      b[ip]=b[i]; 
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;      if (ii) 
   double dateprev1, dateprev2;        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
       else if (sum) ii=i; 
   char version[80]="Imach version 64b, May 2001, INED-EUROREVES ";      b[i]=sum; 
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];    } 
     for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
       sum=b[i]; 
   char z[1]="c", occ;      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
 #include <sys/time.h>      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
 #include <time.h>    } 
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];  } 
   char strfprev[10], strlprev[10];  
   char strfprevfore[10], strlprevfore[10];  /************ Frequencies ********************/
   /* long total_usecs;  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;  {  /* Some frequencies */
      
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */    int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
     int first;
     double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
   printf("\nIMACH, Version 0.7");    double *pp, **prop;
   printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
     FILE *ficresp;
 #ifdef windows    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
   scanf("%s",pathtot);    
   getcwd(pathcd, size);    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/    strcpy(fileresp,"p");
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
     if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
 split(pathtot, path,optionfile);      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   chdir(path);      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   replace(pathc,path);      exit(0);
 #endif    }
 #ifdef unix    freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
   scanf("%s",optionfile);    j1=0;
 #endif    
     j=cptcoveff;
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
   strcpy(fileres,"r");    first=1;
   strcat(fileres, optionfile);  
     for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
   /*---------arguments file --------*/      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
         j1++;
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);          scanf("%d", i);*/
     goto end;        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
   }          for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
             for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   strcpy(filereso,"o");              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
   strcat(filereso,fileres);  
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {      for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;        for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   }          prop[i][m]=0;
         
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */        dateintsum=0;
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        k2cpt=0;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          bool=1;
     puts(line);          if  (cptcovn>0) {
     fputs(line,ficparo);            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
   }              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                bool=0;
           }
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncov, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);          if (bool==1){
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncov,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){              /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
     ungetc(c,ficpar);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
     puts(line);                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
     fputs(line,ficparo);                if (m<lastpass) {
   }                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
                  }
   fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,&popbased);                
   fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,popbased);                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
                    dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
   /* printf("%s %s",strfprev,strlprev);                  k2cpt++;
      exit(0);*/                }
  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){                /*}*/
     ungetc(c,ficpar);            }
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          }
     puts(line);        }
     fputs(line,ficparo);         
   }        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  fprintf(ficresp, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
          if  (cptcovn>0) {
   fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,&nforecast,&mobilav);          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
                fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
          }
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
     puts(line);        
     fputs(line,ficparo);        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
   }          if(i==iagemax+3){
   ungetc(c,ficpar);            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
            }else{
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s\n",&popforecast,popfile);            if(first==1){
                first=0;
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);              printf("See log file for details...\n");
   cptcovn=0;            }
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
           }
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */            for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
                pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
   /* Read guess parameters */          }
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
     ungetc(c,ficpar);              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
     puts(line);              if(first==1){
     fputs(line,ficparo);              printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
   }              }
   ungetc(c,ficpar);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
              }else{
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);              if(first==1)
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);            }
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);          }
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);  
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);          }       
       }          for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");            pos += pp[jk];
       printf("\n");            posprop += prop[jk][i];
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");          }
     }          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
              if(pos>=1.e-5){
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;              if(first==1)
                 printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
   p=param[1][1];              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
              }else{
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */              if(first==1)
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);            }
     puts(line);            if( i <= iagemax){
     fputs(line,ficparo);              if(pos>=1.e-5){
   }                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
                 /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);              }
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */              else
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){            }
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);          }
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);          
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);              if(first==1)
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
       }                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");              }
       printf("\n");          if(i <= iagemax)
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
     }          if(first==1)
   }            printf("Others in log...\n");
   delti=delti3[1][1];          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
          }
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */      }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);   
     puts(line);    fclose(ficresp);
     fputs(line,ficparo);    free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
   }    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
      /* End of Freq */
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  }
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){  
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);  /************ Prevalence ********************/
     printf("%s",str);  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);  {  
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);    */
     }   
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");    int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
     printf("\n");    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");    double *pp, **prop;
   }    double pos,posprop; 
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)    int iagemin, iagemax;
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];  
        iagemin= (int) agemin;
   printf("\n");    iagemax= (int) agemax;
     /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
     prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
     /*-------- data file ----------*/    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
     if((ficres =fopen(fileres,"w"))==NULL) {    j1=0;
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileres);goto end;    
     }    j=cptcoveff;
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
        
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
     }        j1++;
         
     n= lastobs;        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);            prop[i][m]=0.0;
     num=ivector(1,n);       
     moisnais=vector(1,n);        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
     annais=vector(1,n);          bool=1;
     moisdc=vector(1,n);          if  (cptcovn>0) {
     andc=vector(1,n);            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
     agedc=vector(1,n);              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
     cod=ivector(1,n);                bool=0;
     weight=vector(1,n);          } 
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */          if (bool==1) { 
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);              if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);                    if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
                 if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
     i=1;                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {                  prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
                        } 
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){              }
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);            } /* end selection of waves */
           strcpy(line,stra);          }
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);        }
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
         }          
                  for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);          } 
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            if( i <=  iagemax){ 
               if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
         for (j=ncov;j>=1;j--){              } 
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            } 
         }          }/* end jk */ 
         num[i]=atol(stra);        }/* end i */ 
              } /* end i1 */
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){    } /* end k1 */
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/    
     /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
         i=i+1;    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
       }    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
     }  }  /* End of prevalence */
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);  
        scanf("%d",i);*/  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */  
   void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){  {
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;       Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
     }       dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
        */
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/  
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);    int i, mi, m;
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);    int first;
   Tage=ivector(1,15);          int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
        double sum=0.;
   if (strlen(model) >1){    first=0;
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;    jmin=1e+5;
     j=nbocc(model,'+');    jmax=-1;
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');    jmean=0.;
     cptcovn=j+1;    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     cptcovprod=j1;      mi=0;
          m=firstpass;
          while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
     strcpy(modelsav,model);        if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){          mw[++mi][i]=m;
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);        if(m >=lastpass)
       goto end;          break;
     }        else
              m++;
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){      }/* end while */
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/           /* Only death is a correct wave */
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {        mw[mi][i]=m;
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');      }
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {  
           cptcovprod--;      wav[i]=mi;
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');      if(mi==0){
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);        nbwarn++;
           cptcovage++;        if(first==0){
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;          printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/          first=1;
         }        }
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {        if(first==1){
           cptcovprod--;          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');        }
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);      } /* end mi==0 */
           cptcovage++;    } /* End individuals */
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;  
         }    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         else {      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');        if (stepm <=0)
           Tvar[i]=ncov+k1;          dh[mi][i]=1;
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');        else{
           Tprod[k1]=i;          if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];              if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];              else if(j<0){
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)                nberr++;
             covar[ncov+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];                printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
           k1++;                j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
           k2=k2+2;                printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
         }                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
       }                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
       else {              }
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/              k=k+1;
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/              if (j >= jmax){
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');                jmax=j;
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);                ijmax=i;
       }              }
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);                if (j <= jmin){
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);                jmin=j;
         scanf("%d",i);*/                ijmin=i;
     }              }
 }              sum=sum+j;
                /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
   /*printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);              /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);            }
   scanf("%d ",i);*/          }
     fclose(fic);          else{
             j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
     /*  if(mle==1){*/  /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/  
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;            k=k+1;
     }            if (j >= jmax) {
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/              jmax=j;
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);              ijmax=i;
             }
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)            else if (j <= jmin){
      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++)              jmin=j;
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){              ijmin=i;
          anint[m][i]=9999;            }
          s[m][i]=-1;            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
        }            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
                if(j<0){
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {              nberr++;
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
         if(s[m][i] >0){            }
           if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {            sum=sum+j;
             if(agedc[i]>0)          }
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)          jk= j/stepm;
               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];          jl= j -jk*stepm;
             else {          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
               if (andc[i]!=9999){          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);            if(jl==0){
               agev[m][i]=-1;              dh[mi][i]=jk;
               }              bh[mi][i]=0;
             }            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
           }                    * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);              bh[mi][i]=ju;
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)            }
               agev[m][i]=1;          }else{
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){            if(jl <= -ju){
               agemin=agev[m][i];              dh[mi][i]=jk;
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
             }                                   * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){                                   */
               agemax=agev[m][i];            }
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/            else{
             }              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/              bh[mi][i]=ju;
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/            }
           }            if(dh[mi][i]==0){
           else { /* =9 */              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
             agev[m][i]=1;              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
             s[m][i]=-1;              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
           }            }
         }          } /* end if mle */
         else /*= 0 Unknown */        }
           agev[m][i]=1;      } /* end wave */
       }    }
        jmean=sum/k;
     }    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){   }
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {  
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");    /*********** Tricode ****************************/
           goto end;  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
         }  {
       }    
     }    int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
     int cptcode=0;
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);    cptcoveff=0; 
    
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);    for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);  
     free_vector(annais,1,n);    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum 
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/                                 modality*/ 
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
     free_vector(andc,1,n);        Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
         /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
            if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable 
     wav=ivector(1,imx);                                         Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and 
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);                                         female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      }
      
     /* Concatenates waves */      for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);        if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
       }
   
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);      ij=1; 
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);      for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
       ncodemax[1]=1;        for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);          if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
                  nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);            /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
    h=0;            
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);            ij++;
            }
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){          if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){        }  
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){      } 
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){    }  
            h++;  
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;   for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
          }  
        }   for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { 
      }     /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
    }     ij=Tvar[i];
         Ndum[ij]++;
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age   }
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */  
    ij=1;
     if ((nbocc(strfprev,'/')==1) && (nbocc(strlprev,'/')==1)){   for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
      boolprev=0;     if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
      cutv(stra,strb,strfprev,'/');       Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
      dateprev1=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);       ij++;
      cutv(stra,strb,strlprev,'/');     }
      dateprev2=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);   }
    }   
       cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
    else if ((nbocc(strfprev,'/')==0) &&(nbocc(strlprev,'/')==0)){  }
      boolprev=1;  
      fprev=atoi(strfprev); lprev=atoi(strlprev);  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
    }  
     else {  void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
       printf("Error in statement lprevalence or fprevalence\n");  
       goto end;  {
     }    /* Health expectancies */
        int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;
   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprev, lprev,mint,anint,boolprev,dateprev1,dateprev2);    double age, agelim, hf;
      double ***p3mat,***varhe;
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    double **dnewm,**doldm;
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    double *xp;
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    double **gp, **gm;
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */    int theta;
        
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]    varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */    xp=vector(1,npar);
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     if(mle==1){    
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Local time at start: %s", strstart);
     }    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
        fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
     /*--------- results files --------------*/    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
    fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,popbased);        fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
    fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
   
    jk=1;    if(estepm < stepm){
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
    printf("# Parameters\n");    }
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    else  hstepm=estepm;   
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
        if (k != i)     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
          {     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
              jk++;     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
            }     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
            printf("\n");  
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
          }    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
      }       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
    }       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
  if(mle==1){       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
  }       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales\n");       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
     printf("# Scales\n");       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    */
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
         if (j!=i) {  
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);    agelim=AGESUP;
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){      /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
             jk++;      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
           }      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
           printf("\n");      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
         }      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
       }      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
      }  
          /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
     k=1;         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
     printf("# Covariance\n");   
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){  
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;  
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/  
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
       printf("%3d",i);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);        }
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       }    
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");        cptj=0;
       printf("\n");        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
       k++;          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
     }            cptj=cptj+1;
                for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){              gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
       ungetc(c,ficpar);            }
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          }
       puts(line);        }
       fputs(line,ficparo);       
     }       
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) 
            xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
            
     if (fage <= 2) {        cptj=0;
       bage = agemin;        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
       fage = agemax;          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
     }            cptj=cptj+1;
             for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");  
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);              gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
             }
              }
 /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/        }
 chdir(pathcd);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate*nlstate; j++)
   if((ficgp=fopen("graph.plt","w"))==NULL) {          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     printf("Problem with file graph.gp");goto end;            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
   }          }
 #ifdef windows       } 
   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);     
 #endif  /* End theta */
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);  
         trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
  /* 1eme*/  
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
 #ifdef windows            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);       
 #endif  
 #ifdef unix       for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);        for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
 #endif          varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
   
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
 }        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");          for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");            for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
 }              varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);        }
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {      }
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      /* Computing expectancies */
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
 }          for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
 #ifdef unix            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");            
 #endif  /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);  
    }          }
   }  
   /*2 eme*/      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
       cptj=0;
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
              cptj++;
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {          fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );
       k=2*i;        }
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {     
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
 }        free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    }
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    printf("\n");
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");  
 }      free_vector(xp,1,npar);
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");  }
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");  
 }    /************ Variance ******************/
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");  {
     }    /* Variance of health expectancies */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
   }    /* double **newm;*/
      double **dnewm,**doldm;
   /*3eme*/    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    int k, cptcode;
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {    double *xp;
       k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);    double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
       }    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    double ***p3mat;
     }    double age,agelim, hf;
   }    double ***mobaverage;
      int theta;
   /* CV preval stat */    char digit[4];
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    char digitp[25];
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {  
       k=3;    char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemax,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);  
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)    if(popbased==1){
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);      if(mobilav!=0)
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);        strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
            else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;    }
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);    else 
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {      strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;  
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);    if (mobilav!=0) {
       }      mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);        if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
       fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
     }        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
   }        }
     }
   /* proba elementaires */  
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
       if (k != i) {    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s%1d%1d=%f ",alph[j],i,k,p[jk]);*/    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s",alph[1]);*/    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
           jk++;      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
         }    }
       }    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     }   
     }    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
   for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemax);    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
    i=1;    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
    for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
      k3=i;      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
      for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
        if (k != k2){    }  
         fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
 ij=1;    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
         for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {    /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
             ij++;  /*   } */
           }    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           else   fprintf(ficresvij, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
           fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");
         }    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
           fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
              for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){          fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
           fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
 ij=1;  
           for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    xp=vector(1,npar);
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
             ij++;    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
           }    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           else  
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           }    gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           fprintf(ficgp,")");    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
         }    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);    
         if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");    if(estepm < stepm){
         i=i+ncovmodel;      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
        }    }
      }    else  hstepm=estepm;   
    }    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk);    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
   }       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
           nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
   fclose(ficgp);       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
           and note for a fixed period like k years */
 chdir(path);    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
           survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);         results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     free_ivector(num,1,n);    */
     free_vector(agedc,1,n);    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/    agelim = AGESUP;
     fclose(ficparo);    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
     fclose(ficres);      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
     /*  }*/      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
          p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
    /*________fin mle=1_________*/      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
          gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
    
     /* No more information from the sample is required now */  
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        }
     puts(line);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   }  
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        if (popbased==1) {
            if(mobilav ==0){
   fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   printf("agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax, bage, fage);              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
   fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);          }
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");        }
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {    
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);goto end;        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
   }          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
  fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> <font size=\"6\">Imach, Version 0.7 </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
 Titre=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>          }
 Total number of observations=%d <br>        }
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
 <li>Outputs files<br><br>\n           as a weighted average of prlim.
         - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n        */
 - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
         - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>        }    
         - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>        /* end probability of death */
         - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>  
         - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         - Prevalences and population forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
 <br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
    
  fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");        if (popbased==1) {
           if(mobilav ==0){
  m=cptcoveff;            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
           }else{ /* mobilav */ 
  j1=0;            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){          }
        j1++;        }
        if (cptcovn > 0) {  
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[j1][cpt]]);            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
        }          }
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>        }
 <img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);            /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>           as a weighted average of prlim.
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);        */
        }        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>        }    
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);          /* end probability of death */
      }  
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
      }          }
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and  
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
 <img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");        }
    }  
  }      } /* End theta */
 fclose(fichtm);  
       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/  
        for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;  
   }      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");    
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);  
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);        for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
   k=0;          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
   agebase=agemin;          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   agelim=agemax;            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
   ftolpl=1.e-10;              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
   i1=cptcoveff;        }
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}      }
     
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      /* pptj */
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
         k=k+1;      matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");        for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)          varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      /* end ppptj */
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");      /*  x centered again */
              hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);   
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );      if (popbased==1) {
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        if(mobilav ==0){
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         }        }else{ /* mobilav */ 
       }          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     }            prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
   fclose(ficrespl);        }
       }
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/               
        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);         computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {         as a weighted average of prlim.
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;      */
   }      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
            gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;      }    
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/      /* end probability of death */
   
   agelim=AGESUP;      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
   k=0;          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){        }
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){      } 
       k=k+1;      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");  
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)      fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                  fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */        }
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);        free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    } /* End age */
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);    free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
           }  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         }    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     }    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
   }    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
     /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
   /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/  */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
   fclose(ficrespij);    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
   
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);    free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {    free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);goto end;    free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   }    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
     fflush(ficgp);
  if ((nbocc(strfprevfore,'/')==1) && (nbocc(strlprevfore,'/')==1)){    fflush(fichtm); 
      boolprev=0;  }  /* end varevsij */
      cutv(stra,strb,strfprevfore,'/');  
      dateprev1=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);  /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
      cutv(stra,strb,strlprevfore,'/');  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
      dateprev2=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);  {
    }    /* Variance of prevalence limit */
        /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
    else if ((nbocc(strfprevfore,'/')==0) &&(nbocc(strlprevfore,'/')==0)){    double **newm;
      boolprev=1;    double **dnewm,**doldm;
      fprev=atoi(strfprevfore); lprev=atoi(strlprevfore);    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
    }    int k, cptcode;
     else {    double *xp;
       printf("Error in statement lprevalence or fprevalence\n");    double *gp, *gm;
       goto end;    double **gradg, **trgradg;
     }    double age,agelim;
     int theta;
   prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprevfore, lprevfore,mint,anint,boolprev,dateprev1,dateprev2);    fprintf(ficresvpl, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart); 
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of stable prevalences \n");
   free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
   free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);        fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
   /* Mobile average */    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;    xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   if (mobilav==1) {    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    
     for (agedeb=bage+3; agedeb<=fage-2; agedeb++)    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)    agelim = AGESUP;
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
          nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
     for (agedeb=bage+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){      if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){      gp=vector(1,nlstate);
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];      gm=vector(1,nlstate);
           }  
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         }        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
       }          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
     }          }
   }        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;          gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;      
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
   agelim=AGESUP;          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2 years/6 months = 4 */        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
            gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
   if (popforecast==1) {  
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL)    {        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);goto end;          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
     }      } /* End theta */
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);  
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);      trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);  
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
     i=1;          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF)          trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
       {  
         i=i+1;      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       }        varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
     imx=i;      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
        matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
   for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   }        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
   
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       k=k+1;        fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#****** ");      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {      free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
         fprintf(ficresf,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
       }      free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");      free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge Horizon(in years)");    } /* End age */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);  
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficresf," [Population]");    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n%.f %.f 0",agedeb, agedeb);  
        if (mobilav==1) {  }
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  
           fprintf(ficresf," %.3f",mobaverage[(int)agedeb][j][cptcod]);  /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
         }  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
         else {  {
           for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
           fprintf(ficresf," %.3f",probs[(int)agedeb][j][cptcod]);    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
         }      int k=0,l, cptcode;
     int first=1, first1;
        for(j=1; j<=ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," 0.00000");    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
        if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficresf," [%.f] ",popeffectif[(int)agedeb]);    double **dnewm,**doldm;
       }    double *xp;
          double *gp, *gm;
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nforecast;cpt++) {    double **gradg, **trgradg;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");    double **mu;
       for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */    double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;    int theta;
         /*printf("agedeb=%.lf stepm=%d hstepm=%d nhstepm=%d \n",agedeb,stepm,hstepm,nhstepm);*/    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;  
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);      double ***varpij;
                  
         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
            strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
          if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==cpt)    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
             fprintf(ficresf,"\n%.f %.f %.f",agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm, h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
                fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
              }
          for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
            kk1=0.;kk2=0;    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {            if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
              if (mobilav==1)      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod];      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
              else kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod];    }
              if (popforecast==1) kk2=kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb];    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
             }    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
            if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==cpt) {    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
              fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
                if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficresf," [%.f]", kk2);      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
            }    }
           }    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
         }    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
            fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
       }    printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
       }    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     }    fprintf(ficresprob, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
   }    fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
   if (popforecast==1) {    fprintf(ficresprobcov, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);    fprintf(ficresprobcor, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
   }    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
   free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
   free_vector(weight,1,n);  
   fclose(ficresf);  
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
   strcpy(filerest,"t");        fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
   strcat(filerest,fileres);        fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {        fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;      }  
   }   /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
    */
   strcpy(filerese,"e");   xp=vector(1,npar);
   strcat(filerese,fileres);    dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {    doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);    mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
   }    varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);    first=1;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {  
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
   }    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);    file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
   k=0;  and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){   They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
       k=k+1;  It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");  would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);   Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");   and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
   To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");  
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    cov[1]=1;
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);    tj=cptcoveff;
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");    if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     j1=0;
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");    for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ 
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);        j1++;
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");        if  (cptcovn>0) {
           fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);            fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
       varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);          
                fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);          fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");          
                  
       hf=1;          fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);          fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){          
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
         if (popbased==1) {          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];        }
         }        
                for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
         fprintf(ficrest," %.0f",age);          cov[2]=age;
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){          for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {            cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*hf*eij[i][j][(int)age];          }
           }          for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];          for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
         }            cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)          
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)          gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];          trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],hf*sqrt(vepp));          gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){          gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[j],hf*sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));      
         }          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
       }              xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
     }            
   }            pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
                    
                    k=0;
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
  fclose(ficreseij);                k=k+1;
  fclose(ficresvij);                gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
   fclose(ficrest);              }
   fclose(ficpar);            }
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);            
   /*  scanf("%d ",i); */            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/        
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
 strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");            k=0;
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);            for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);                k=k+1;
     exit(0);                gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
   }              }
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);            }
        
  k=0;            for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){              gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){          }
      k=k+1;  
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");          for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)            for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
        fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);              trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");          
                matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
      varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);          free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
    }          free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
  }          free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
   
   fclose(ficresvpl);          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
           
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/          k=0;
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);          for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);              k=k+1;
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);              mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
              }
            }
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);            for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);              varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);  
            /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);            for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);            printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
              fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);            }*/
   
   printf("End of Imach\n");          fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */          fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
            fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/  
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
   /*------ End -----------*/            fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
  end:            fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
 #ifdef windows          }
  chdir(pathcd);          i=0;
 #endif          for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
              for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
  system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");              i=i++;
               fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
 #ifdef windows              fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
   while (z[0] != 'q') {              for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
     chdir(pathcd);                fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");                fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
     scanf("%s",z);              }
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");            }
     else if (z[0] == 'e') {          }/* end of loop for state */
       chdir(path);        } /* end of loop for age */
       system(optionfilehtm);  
     }        /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);        /*
   }          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
 #endif          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
 }          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
         */
   
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
         first1=1;
         for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
           for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
             if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
             for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
               for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
                 if(l1==k1) continue;
                 i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                 if(i<=j) continue;
                 for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   if ((int)age %5==0){
                     v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
                     mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
                     c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                     /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     /* Eigen vectors */
                     v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                     /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                     v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
                     v12=-v21;
                     v22=v11;
                     tnalp=v21/v11;
                     if(first1==1){
                       first1=0;
                       printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
                     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
                     /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
                     /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                     if(first==1){
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
    :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
   %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }else{
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }/* if first */
                   } /* age mod 5 */
                 } /* end loop age */
                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
               } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
           } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
       } /* loop covariates */
     }
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fclose(ficresprob);
     fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtmcov);
   }
   
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                     int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                     double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                     double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
     int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
      <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
   </ul>");
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
    - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
              jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
              stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
   
   fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d1.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d2.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
          /* Stable prevalence in each health state */
          for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
            fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
          }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
     int ng;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
      for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stable prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      }
     }
     /*2 eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
       
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
         k=2*i;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
       }
     }
     
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);
           
         } 
       }
     }
     
     /* CV preval stable (period) */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
         
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
         
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
         }
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
       } 
     }  
     
     /* proba elementaires */
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
             fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
      }
   
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                else
                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                ij=1;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                    ij++;
                  }
                  else
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                    if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                      ij++;
                    }
                    else
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     int *popage;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz(double x[])
   { 
     double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
   
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           L=L+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
    
     return -2*L*num/sump;
   }
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
     int i,k;
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
     fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
     for (i=1;i<=2;i++) 
       fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
     fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
   
    for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
      fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
    
     fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
     int ng;
   
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
   
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
     fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small\n set log y\n"); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
   
   } 
   
   
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
     int linei, month, year,iout;
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
     int NDIM=2;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     char dummy[]="                         ";
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     struct stat info;
     double agedeb, agefin,hf;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double **xi,tmp,delta;
   
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int *indx;
     char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE]; 
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
     int c,  h , cpt,l;
     int ju,jl, mi;
     int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
     int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     int agemortsup;
     float  sumlpop=0.;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double *severity;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
     double kk1, kk2;
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
     double **ximort;
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
     int *dcwave;
   
     char z[1]="c", occ;
   
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
     char strstart[80], *strt, strtend[80];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
     long total_usecs;
    
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
     curr_time=start_time;
     tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       scanf("%s",pathtot);
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
     split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
    /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
     /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
     if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
   
     ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
   
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     delti=delti3[1][1];
     /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       exit(0);
     }
     else if(mle==-3) {
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     }
     else{
       /* Read guess parameters */
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         j=0;
         for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           if(jj==i) continue;
           j++;
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           if(mle==1)
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
             if(mle==1){
               printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             }
             else
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           if(mle==1)
             printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         }
       }  
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       p=param[1][1];
       
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
             printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
       }
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
       /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%s",str);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
         for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           }
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       
       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
       strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
       strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
       if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
     }    /* End of mle != -3 */
   
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
     }
   
     n= lastobs;
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
   
     i=1;
     linei=0;
     while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
       linei=linei+1;
       for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
         if(line[j] == '\t')
           line[j] = ' ';
       }
       for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
         ;
       };
       line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
       if(line[0]=='#'){
         fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         continue;
       }
   
       for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
         errno=0;
         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
         /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
           printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %d %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
           exit(1);
         }
         s[j][i]=lval;
         
         strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
         }
         else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
           month=99;
           year=9999;
         }else{
           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
           exit(1);
         }
         anint[j][i]= (double) year; 
         mint[j][i]= (double)month; 
         strcpy(line,stra);
       } /* ENd Waves */
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
       }
       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         exit(1);
       }
       andc[i]=(double) year; 
       moisdc[i]=(double) month; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
       }
       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line,j);
         exit(1);
       }
       annais[i]=(double)(year);
       moisnais[i]=(double)(month); 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       errno=0;
       lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
         printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",lval, i,line,linei);
         exit(1);
       }
       weight[i]=(double)(lval); 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
         errno=0;
         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
           printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
           exit(1);
         }
         if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
           printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a value of the %d covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1. IMaCh does not build design variables, do it your self).  Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
           exit(1);
         }
         covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
         strcpy(line,stra);
       } 
       lstra=strlen(stra);
       
       if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
         stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
         num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
       }
       else
         num[i]=atol(stra);
       /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
         printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
       
       i=i+1;
     } /* End loop reading  data */
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
        scanf("%d",i);*/
     imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
   
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
       if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
       if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
       }*/
      /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
        printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
     
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) */
    
      /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
        else weight[i]=1;*/
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
     Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
     Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
     Tage=ivector(1,15);      
      
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovn=j+1; 
       cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
       
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
         printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         goto end;
       }
       
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
   
       for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
         cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */ 
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
           cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
             cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=i;
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           }
           else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;
           }
           else {  /* Age is not in the model */
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
             Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
             cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=i;
             Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
             Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
             for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
               covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
             k1++;
             k2=k2+2;
           }
         }
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
         Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);
     fclose(fic);*/
   
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
     }
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0)
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
               agemin=agev[m][i];
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
               agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           nberr++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           goto end;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax); 
   
     agegomp=(int)agemin;
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
   
      
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
   
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     Tcode=ivector(1,100);
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
         
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of 
                                    the estimations*/
     h=0;
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
       for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
             h++;
             if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
             /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
       
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
   
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
   
     if (mle==-3){
       ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
       cens=ivector(1,n);
       ageexmed=vector(1,n);
       agecens=vector(1,n);
       dcwave=ivector(1,n);
    
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         dcwave[i]=-1;
         for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
           if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
             dcwave[i]=m;
             /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
             break;
           }
       }
   
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
         if (wav[i]>0){
           ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
           j=wav[i];
           agecens[i]=1.; 
   
           if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
             agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
             cens[i]= 1;
           }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1) 
             cens[i]= -1;
           if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
             cens[i]=0 ;
         }
         else cens[i]=-1;
       }
       
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
       
       p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;
       /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
       
       
       printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
       strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort"); 
       strcat(filerespow,fileres);
       if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       }
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
       /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
       */
       fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
       
       powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
       fclose(ficrespow);
       
       hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz); 
   
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){ 
           printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         printf("\n ");
       }
       
       printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) 
         printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
   
       lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
         agemortsup=k;
         if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
       }
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
         lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
         lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
         sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
       }
       
       tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
         /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
         tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
       }
       
       
       printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
         printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
       
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,path); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                        stepm, weightopt,\
                        model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
       
       free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
     } /* Endof if mle==-3 */
     
     else{ /* For mle >=1 */
     
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
         mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
       }
       
       /*--------- results files --------------*/
       fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
       
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
           if (k != i) {
             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
               printf("%f ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
               jk++; 
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       if(mle!=0){
         /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
         ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
         hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if (j!=i) {
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       if(mle>=1)
         printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
       /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
       /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
       /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
       
       
       /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
          even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
       */
       for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
         jj=0;
         for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
             if(j==i) continue;
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               jj++;
               ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
               if(itimes==1){
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }else{
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }
               ll=0;
               for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                 for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   if(lj==li) continue;
                   for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                     ll++;
                     if(ll<=jj){
                       cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                       if(ll<jj){
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }else{
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }
                     }
                   } /* end lk */
                 } /* end lj */
               } /* end li */
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               fprintf(ficres,"\n");
               numlinepar++;
             } /* end k*/
           } /*end j */
         } /* end i */
       } /* end itimes */
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       fflush(ficres);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       estepm=0;
       fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
       if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
       if (fage <= 2) {
         bage = ageminpar;
         fage = agemaxpar;
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
       fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
       fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       
       dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
       dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
       fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
       
       
       
       /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
       /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,path); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                    model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                    jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
         
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
    
       free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
       free_lvector(num,1,n);
       free_vector(agedc,1,n);
       /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       fclose(ficparo);
       fclose(ficres);
   
   
       /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (stable prevalence) --------------*/
     
       strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
       strcat(filerespl,fileres);
       if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       fprintf(ficrespl, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"#Stable prevalence \n");
       fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
       prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
       agebase=ageminpar;
       agelim=agemaxpar;
       ftolpl=1.e-10;
       i1=cptcoveff;
       if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
           printf("\n#******");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
           printf("******\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
           
           for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       fclose(ficrespl);
   
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
     
       strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
       if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
       stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
       /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
       agelim=AGESUP;
       hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
       /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
       fprintf(ficrespij, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
       fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
           
           for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
   
             /*      nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
   
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                   fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
               fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
   
       varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
   
       fclose(ficrespij);
   
       probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
           for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
             probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
       /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
       /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
         /*      }  */
         /*      else{ */
         /*        erreur=108; */
         /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*      } */
       }
     
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
       strcpy(filerest,"t");
       strcat(filerest,fileres);
       if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
       strcpy(filerese,"e");
       strcat(filerese,fileres);
       if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
   
       strcpy(fileresv,"v");
       strcat(fileresv,fileres);
       if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
       /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
       prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
           ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       */
   
       if (mobilav!=0) {
         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
         if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
           fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
           printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         }
       }
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1; 
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);  
    
           vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav, strstart);
           if(popbased==1){
             varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav, strstart);
           }
   
           fprintf(ficrest, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);
           fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
           for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
           epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
           for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             if (popbased==1) {
               if(mobilav ==0){
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
               }else{ /* mobilav */ 
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
               }
             }
           
             fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
             for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
               for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                 epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                 /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
               }
               epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
             }
   
             for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                 vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
             }
             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
         }
       }
       free_vector(weight,1,n);
       free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
       free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
       free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_ivector(cod,1,n);
       free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
       fclose(ficreseij);
       fclose(ficresvij);
       fclose(ficrest);
       fclose(ficpar);
     
       /*------- Variance of stable prevalence------*/   
   
       strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
       strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
       if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance of stable prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
         exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of stable prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
           varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
           free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         }
       }
   
       fclose(ficresvpl);
   
       /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
       if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
       free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     
       free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
       free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
       /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
       free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
   
       free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
       free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
   
   
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
     tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
     chdir(path);
     /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
     sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
   #ifndef UNIX
     sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%swgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
   #endif
     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #ifdef UNIX
       strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
       if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #endif
     }else
       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
     
     sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
   
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf("\n Problem with gnuplot\n");
     }
     printf(" Wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') {
         printf("Starting browser with: %s",optionfilehtm);fflush(stdout);
         system(optionfilehtm);
       }
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }
   
   
   

Removed from v.1.18  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.111


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