Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.43 and 1.157

version 1.43, 2002/05/24 13:00:54 version 1.157, 2014/08/27 16:26:55
Line 1 Line 1
 /* $Id$  /* $Id$
    Interpolated Markov Chain    $State$
     $Log$
   Short summary of the programme:    Revision 1.157  2014/08/27 16:26:55  brouard
      Summary: Preparing windows Visual studio version
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from    Author: Brouard
   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a  
   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are    In order to compile on Visual studio, time.h is now correct and time_t
   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the    and tm struct should be used. difftime should be used but sometimes I
   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a    just make the differences in raw time format (time(&now).
   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change    Trying to suppress #ifdef LINUX
   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are    Add xdg-open for __linux in order to open default browser.
   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a  
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the    Revision 1.156  2014/08/25 20:10:10  brouard
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The    *** empty log message ***
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the  
   probability to be observed in state j at the second wave    Revision 1.155  2014/08/25 18:32:34  brouard
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore    Summary: New compile, minor changes
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where    Author: Brouard
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more  
   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program    Revision 1.154  2014/06/20 17:32:08  brouard
   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites    Summary: Outputs now all graphs of convergence to period prevalence
   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the  
   convergence.    Revision 1.153  2014/06/20 16:45:46  brouard
     Summary: If 3 live state, convergence to period prevalence on same graph
   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple    Author: Brouard
   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not  
   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an    Revision 1.152  2014/06/18 17:54:09  brouard
   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into    Summary: open browser, use gnuplot on same dir than imach if not found in the path
   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.    
     Revision 1.151  2014/06/18 16:43:30  brouard
   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h    *** empty log message ***
   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be  
   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate    Revision 1.150  2014/06/18 16:42:35  brouard
   states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,    Summary: If gnuplot is not in the path try on same directory than imach binary (OSX)
   semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx    Author: brouard
   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices  
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply    Revision 1.149  2014/06/18 15:51:14  brouard
   hPijx.    Summary: Some fixes in parameter files errors
     Author: Nicolas Brouard
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also  
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.    Revision 1.148  2014/06/17 17:38:48  brouard
      Summary: Nothing new
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).    Author: Brouard
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.  
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    Just a new packaging for OS/X version 0.98nS
   from the European Union.  
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and    Revision 1.147  2014/06/16 10:33:11  brouard
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    *** empty log message ***
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .  
   **********************************************************************/    Revision 1.146  2014/06/16 10:20:28  brouard
      Summary: Merge
 #include <math.h>    Author: Brouard
 #include <stdio.h>  
 #include <stdlib.h>    Merge, before building revised version.
 #include <unistd.h>  
     Revision 1.145  2014/06/10 21:23:15  brouard
 #define MAXLINE 256    Summary: Debugging with valgrind
 #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"    Author: Nicolas Brouard
 /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/  
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80    Lot of changes in order to output the results with some covariates
 /*#define DEBUG*/    After the Edimburgh REVES conference 2014, it seems mandatory to
 #define windows    improve the code.
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    No more memory valgrind error but a lot has to be done in order to
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    continue the work of splitting the code into subroutines.
     Also, decodemodel has been improved. Tricode is still not
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    optimal. nbcode should be improved. Documentation has been added in
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    the source code.
   
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    Revision 1.143  2014/01/26 09:45:38  brouard
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */    Summary: Version 0.98nR (to be improved, but gives same optimization results as 0.98k. Nice, promising
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */  
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
 #define MAXN 20000    (Module): Version 0.98nR Running ok, but output format still only works for three covariates.
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */  
 #define AGESUP 130    Revision 1.142  2014/01/26 03:57:36  brouard
 #define AGEBASE 40    Summary: gnuplot changed plot w l 1 has to be changed to plot w l lt 2
   
     * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
 int erreur; /* Error number */  
 int nvar;    Revision 1.141  2014/01/26 02:42:01  brouard
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
 int npar=NPARMAX;  
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */    Revision 1.140  2011/09/02 10:37:54  brouard
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */    Summary: times.h is ok with mingw32 now.
 int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */  
 int popbased=0;    Revision 1.139  2010/06/14 07:50:17  brouard
     After the theft of my laptop, I probably lost some lines of codes which were not uploaded to the CVS tree.
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */    I remember having already fixed agemin agemax which are pointers now but not cvs saved.
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */  
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */    Revision 1.138  2010/04/30 18:19:40  brouard
 int mle, weightopt;    *** empty log message ***
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */  
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    Revision 1.137  2010/04/29 18:11:38  brouard
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */    (Module): Checking covariates for more complex models
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    than V1+V2. A lot of change to be done. Unstable.
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */  
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;    Revision 1.136  2010/04/26 20:30:53  brouard
 FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop;    (Module): merging some libgsl code. Fixing computation
 FILE *ficreseij;    of likelione (using inter/intrapolation if mle = 0) in order to
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    get same likelihood as if mle=1.
  FILE  *ficresvij;    Some cleaning of code and comments added.
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];  
  FILE  *ficresvpl;    Revision 1.135  2009/10/29 15:33:14  brouard
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
   
 #define NR_END 1    Revision 1.134  2009/10/29 13:18:53  brouard
 #define FREE_ARG char*    (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10  
     Revision 1.133  2009/07/06 10:21:25  brouard
 #define NRANSI    just nforces
 #define ITMAX 200  
     Revision 1.132  2009/07/06 08:22:05  brouard
 #define TOL 2.0e-4    Many tings
   
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660    Revision 1.131  2009/06/20 16:22:47  brouard
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10    Some dimensions resccaled
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);  
     Revision 1.130  2009/05/26 06:44:34  brouard
 #define GOLD 1.618034    (Module): Max Covariate is now set to 20 instead of 8. A
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    lot of cleaning with variables initialized to 0. Trying to make
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    V2+V3*age+V1+V4 strb=V3*age+V1+V4 working better.
   
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    Revision 1.129  2007/08/31 13:49:27  lievre
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    Modification of the way of exiting when the covariate is not binary in order to see on the window the error message before exiting
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))  
      Revision 1.128  2006/06/30 13:02:05  brouard
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    (Module): Clarifications on computing e.j
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)  
     Revision 1.127  2006/04/28 18:11:50  brouard
 static double sqrarg;    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
     (Module): In order to speed up (in case of numerous covariates) we
 int imx;    compute health expectancies (without variances) in a first step
 int stepm;    and then all the health expectancies with variances or standard
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/    deviation (needs data from the Hessian matrices) which slows the
     computation.
 int estepm;    In the future we should be able to stop the program is only health
 /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/    expectancies and graph are needed without standard deviations.
   
 int m,nb;    Revision 1.126  2006/04/28 17:23:28  brouard
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
 double dateintmean=0;    Version 0.98h
   
 double *weight;    Revision 1.125  2006/04/04 15:20:31  lievre
 int **s; /* Status */    Errors in calculation of health expectancies. Age was not initialized.
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    Forecasting file added.
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;  
     Revision 1.124  2006/03/22 17:13:53  lievre
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */    Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma).
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    The log-likelihood is printed in the log file
   
 /**************** split *************************/    Revision 1.123  2006/03/20 10:52:43  brouard
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )    * imach.c (Module): <title> changed, corresponds to .htm file
 {    name. <head> headers where missing.
    char *s;                             /* pointer */  
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */    * imach.c (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
     English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */    otherwise the weight is truncated).
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
 #ifdef windows    1.
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */    Version 0.98g
 #else  
    s = strrchr( path, '/' );            /* find last / */    Revision 1.122  2006/03/20 09:45:41  brouard
 #endif    (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */    otherwise the weight is truncated).
       extern char       *getwd( );    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
     1.
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {    Version 0.98g
 #else  
       extern char       *getcwd( );    Revision 1.121  2006/03/16 17:45:01  lievre
     * imach.c (Module): Comments concerning covariates added
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {  
 #endif    * imach.c (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
       }    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */  
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */    Revision 1.120  2006/03/16 15:10:38  lievre
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */    (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */  
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */    Revision 1.119  2006/03/15 17:42:26  brouard
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */    (Module): Bug if status = -2, the loglikelihood was
    }    computed as likelihood omitting the logarithm. Version O.98e
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */  
 #ifdef windows    Revision 1.118  2006/03/14 18:20:07  brouard
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
 #else    table of variances if popbased=1 .
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
 #endif    (Module): Function pstamp added
    s = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */    (Module): Version 0.98d
    s++;  
    strcpy(ext,s);                       /* save extension */    Revision 1.117  2006/03/14 17:16:22  brouard
    l1= strlen( name);    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
    l2= strlen( s)+1;    table of variances if popbased=1 .
    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
    finame[l1-l2]= 0;    (Module): Function pstamp added
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */    (Module): Version 0.98d
 }  
     Revision 1.116  2006/03/06 10:29:27  brouard
     (Module): Variance-covariance wrong links and
 /******************************************/    varian-covariance of ej. is needed (Saito).
   
 void replace(char *s, char*t)    Revision 1.115  2006/02/27 12:17:45  brouard
 {    (Module): One freematrix added in mlikeli! 0.98c
   int i;  
   int lg=20;    Revision 1.114  2006/02/26 12:57:58  brouard
   i=0;    (Module): Some improvements in processing parameter
   lg=strlen(t);    filename with strsep.
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  
     (s[i] = t[i]);    Revision 1.113  2006/02/24 14:20:24  brouard
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';    (Module): Memory leaks checks with valgrind and:
   }    datafile was not closed, some imatrix were not freed and on matrix
 }    allocation too.
   
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)    Revision 1.112  2006/01/30 09:55:26  brouard
 {    (Module): Back to gnuplot.exe instead of wgnuplot.exe
   int i,j=0;  
   int lg=20;    Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
   i=0;    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
   lg=strlen(s);    (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    can be a simple dot '.'.
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;  
   }    Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
   return j;    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
 }  
     Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)    (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
 {  
   int i,lg,j,p=0;    Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
   i=0;    Gnuplot problem appeared...
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {    To be fixed
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;  
   }    Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
     Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
   lg=strlen(t);  
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {    Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
     (u[j] = t[j]);    Some cleaning and links added in html output
   }  
      u[p]='\0';    Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
     *** empty log message ***
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {  
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
   }    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
 }    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
     that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
 /********************** nrerror ********************/    (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
     contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
 void nrerror(char error_text[])    health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
 {    the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");  
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
   exit(1);    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
 }  
 /*********************** vector *******************/    Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
 {  
   double *v;    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    Fix on curr_time
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");  
   return v-nl+NR_END;    Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
 }    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
   
 /************************ free vector ******************/    Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)    *** empty log message ***
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
 }    New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
     directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
 /************************ivector *******************************/    state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)    This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
 {    other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
   int *v;    cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    from other sources like vital statistic data.
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");  
   return v-nl+NR_END;    The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
 }  
     Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
 /******************free ivector **************************/    former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)  
 {    The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    the slope with 95% confident intervals.
 }  
     Current limitations:
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/    A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */    B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
 {  
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
   int **m;    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
      suppressed.
   /* allocate pointers to rows */  
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
   m += NR_END;    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
   m -= nrl;  
      Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
      * imach.c (Repository):
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    Just cleaning
    
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
      (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   return m;    (Module): Version 0.96b
 }  
     Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
       int **m;  
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
 {    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
 }    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
   
 /******************* matrix *******************************/    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
 {    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   double **m;  
     Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   m += NR_END;    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   m -= nrl;  
     Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    Version 0.96
   
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
   return m;    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
 }    routine fileappend.
   
 /*************************free matrix ************************/    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
 {    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
 }    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
     interview.
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
 {    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;    truncation)
   double ***m;    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
   
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
   m += NR_END;    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
   m -= nrl;    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
     parcimony.
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    *** empty log message ***
   
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
     Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");  */
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;  /*
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;     Interpolated Markov Chain
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;    Short summary of the programme:
      
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
   }    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
   return m;    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
 }    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
     computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
 {    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
 }    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
     complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
 /***************** f1dim *************************/    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
 extern int ncom;    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;    convergence.
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);  
      The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
 double f1dim(double x)    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
 {    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
   int j;    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
   double f;    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
   double *xt;  
      hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
   xt=vector(1,ncom);    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
   return f;    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
 }    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
     hPijx.
 /*****************brent *************************/  
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
 {    of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence. 
   int iter;    
   double a,b,d,etemp;    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
   double ftemp;    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;    from the European Union.
   double e=0.0;    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
      software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);  
   x=w=v=bx;    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {    
     xm=0.5*(a+b);    **********************************************************************/
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);  /*
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/    main
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);    read parameterfile
 #ifdef DEBUG    read datafile
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);    concatwav
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */    freqsummary
 #endif    if (mle >= 1)
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){      mlikeli
       *xmin=x;    print results files
       return fx;    if mle==1 
     }       computes hessian
     ftemp=fu;    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {        begin-prev-date,...
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);    open gnuplot file
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);    open html file
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;    period (stable) prevalence      | pl_nom    1-1 2-2 etc by covariate
       q=2.0*(q-r);     for age prevalim()             | #****** V1=0  V2=1  V3=1  V4=0 ******
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;                                    | 65 1 0 2 1 3 1 4 0  0.96326 0.03674
       q=fabs(q);      freexexit2 possible for memory heap.
       etemp=e;  
       e=d;    h Pij x                         | pij_nom  ficrestpij
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))     # Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j= 1-1 1-2     1-3     2-1     2-2     2-3
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));         1  85   85    1.00000             0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000
       else {         1  85   86    0.68299             0.22291 0.09410 0.71093 0.00000 0.28907
         d=p/q;  
         u=x+d;         1  65   99    0.00364             0.00322 0.99314 0.00350 0.00310 0.99340
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)         1  65  100    0.00214             0.00204 0.99581 0.00206 0.00196 0.99597
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);    variance of p one-step probabilities varprob  | prob_nom   ficresprob #One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()
       }     Standard deviation of one-step probabilities | probcor_nom   ficresprobcor #One-step probabilities and correlation matrix
     } else {     Matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities |  probcov_nom ficresprobcov #One-step probabilities and covariance matrix
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  
     }    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));    health expectancies
     fu=(*f)(u);    Variance-covariance of DFLE
     if (fu <= fx) {    prevalence()
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;     movingaverage()
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)    varevsij() 
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
         } else {    total life expectancies
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;    Variance of period (stable) prevalence
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {   end
             v=w;  */
             w=u;  
             fv=fw;  
             fw=fu;  
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {   
             v=u;  #include <math.h>
             fv=fu;  #include <stdio.h>
           }  #include <stdlib.h>
         }  #include <string.h>
   }  #include <unistd.h>
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");  
   *xmin=x;  #include <limits.h>
   return fx;  #include <sys/types.h>
 }  #include <sys/stat.h>
   #include <errno.h>
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/  extern int errno;
   
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,  /* #ifdef LINUX */
             double (*func)(double))  /* #include <time.h> */
 {  /* #include "timeval.h" */
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;  /* #else */
   double fu;  /* #include <sys/time.h> */
    /* #endif */
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);  
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);  #include <time.h>
   if (*fb > *fa) {  
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)  #ifdef GSL
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)  #include <gsl/gsl_errno.h>
       }  #include <gsl/gsl_multimin.h>
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);  #endif
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);  
   while (*fb > *fc) {  /* #include <libintl.h> */
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);  /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);  
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/  #define MAXLINE 1024 /* Was 256. Overflow with 312 with 2 states and 4 covariates. Should be ok */
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));  
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
       fu=(*func)(u);  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {  
       fu=(*func)(u);  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
       if (fu < *fc) {  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))  
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))  #define MAXPARM 128 /**< Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
           }  #define NPARMAX 64 /**< (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {  
       u=ulim;  #define NINTERVMAX 8
       fu=(*func)(u);  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of live states (for func) */
     } else {  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);  #define NCOVMAX 20 /**< Maximum number of covariates, including generated covariates V1*V2 */
       fu=(*func)(u);  #define codtabm(h,k)  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
     }  #define MAXN 20000
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)  #define AGESUP 130
       }  #define AGEBASE 40
 }  #define AGEGOMP 10. /**< Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
   #ifdef _WIN32
 /*************** linmin ************************/  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
 int ncom;  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
 double *pcom,*xicom;  #else
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
    #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
 {  #endif
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,  
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);  /* $Id$ */
   double f1dim(double x);  /* $State$ */
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,  
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));  char version[]="Imach version 0.98nX, August 2014,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121)";
   int j;  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;  char strstart[80];
   double fx,fb,fa;  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
    int erreur=0, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
   ncom=n;  int nvar=0, nforce=0; /* Number of variables, number of forces */
   pcom=vector(1,n);  /* Number of covariates model=V2+V1+ V3*age+V2*V4 */
   xicom=vector(1,n);  int cptcovn=0; /**< cptcovn number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age and age*product) */
   nrfunc=func;  int cptcovt=0; /**< cptcovt number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age) */
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  int cptcovs=0; /**< cptcovs number of simple covariates V2+V1 =2 */
     pcom[j]=p[j];  int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariates with age: V3*age only =1 */
     xicom[j]=xi[j];  int cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age */   
   }  int cptcoveff=0; /* Total number of covariates to vary for printing results */
   ax=0.0;  int cptcov=0; /* Working variable */
   xx=1.0;  int npar=NPARMAX;
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
 #ifdef DEBUG  int ncovmodel=0, ncovcol=0;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);  int popbased=0;
 #endif  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
     xi[j] *= xmin;  int maxwav=0; /* Maxim number of waves */
     p[j] += xi[j];  int jmin=0, jmax=0; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
   }  int ijmin=0, ijmax=0; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */ 
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);  int gipmx=0, gsw=0; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
 }  int mle=1, weightopt=0;
   int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
 /*************** powell ************************/  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,  int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
             double (*func)(double []))             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
 {  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,  double **matprod2(); /* test */
               double (*func)(double []));  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
   int i,ibig,j;  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;  /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */
   double fp,fptt;  FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
   double *xits;  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
   pt=vector(1,n);  int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */
   ptt=vector(1,n);  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
   xit=vector(1,n);  long ipmx=0; /* Number of contributions */
   xits=vector(1,n);  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   *fret=(*func)(p);  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {  FILE *ficresilk;
     fp=(*fret);  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
     ibig=0;  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
     del=0.0;  FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);  FILE *ficreseij;
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);  FILE *ficresstdeij;
     printf("\n");  char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  FILE *ficrescveij;
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];  char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
       fptt=(*fret);  FILE  *ficresvij;
 #ifdef DEBUG  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);  FILE  *ficresvpl;
 #endif  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  char title[MAXLINE];
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {  char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
         ibig=i;  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
       }  int  outcmd=0;
 #ifdef DEBUG  
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
       }  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);  
       printf("\n");  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
 #endif  
     }  /* struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time; */
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {  /* struct timezone tzp; */
 #ifdef DEBUG  /* extern int gettimeofday(); */
       int k[2],l;  struct tm tml, *gmtime(), *localtime();
       k[0]=1;  
       k[1]=-1;  extern time_t time();
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));  
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  struct tm start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);  time_t  rstart_time, rend_time, rcurr_time, rlast_time, rforecast_time; /* raw time */
       printf("\n");  struct tm tm;
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {  
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];  
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);  char *endptr;
         }  long lval;
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));  double dval;
       }  
 #endif  #define NR_END 1
   #define FREE_ARG char*
   #define FTOL 1.0e-10
       free_vector(xit,1,n);  
       free_vector(xits,1,n);  #define NRANSI 
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);  #define ITMAX 200 
       free_vector(pt,1,n);  
       return;  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
     }  
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");  #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];  
       pt[j]=p[j];  #define GOLD 1.618034 
     }  #define GLIMIT 100.0 
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
     if (fptt < fp) {  
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
       if (t < 0.0) {  #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];  #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
         }  
 #ifdef DEBUG  static double sqrarg;
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);  #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);  int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
         printf("\n");  
 #endif  int imx; 
       }  int stepm=1;
     }  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
   }  
 }  int estepm;
   /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/  
   int m,nb;
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)  long *num;
 {  int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */  double **pmmij, ***probs;
   double *ageexmed,*agecens;
   int i, ii,j,k;  double dateintmean=0;
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;  
   double **matprod2();  double *weight;
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();  int **s; /* Status */
   double **newm;  double *agedc;
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */  double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
                     * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)                    * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2]; */
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  double  idx; 
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
     }  int *Ndum; /** Freq of modality (tricode */
   int **codtab; /**< codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); */
    cov[1]=1.;  int **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
    double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){  double ftol=FTOL; /**< Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
     newm=savm;  double ftolhess; /**< Tolerance for computing hessian */
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */  
      cov[2]=agefin;  /**************** split *************************/
    static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {  {
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];    /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
         /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/       the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
       }    */ 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)    int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  
     l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/    ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);      strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
       /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
     savm=oldm;        printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
     oldm=newm;      /* get current working directory */
     maxmax=0.;      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
       min=1.;        return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
       max=0.;      }
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
         sumnew=0;      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];    } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
       }      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
       maxmin=max-min;      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);      dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
     }      printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){    }
       return prlim;    /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
     }    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
   }    if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
 }      dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
       dirc[l1+1] = 0; 
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/      printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
     }
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
 {    if (ss >0){
   double s1, s2;      ss++;
   /*double t34;*/      strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;      l1= strlen( name);
       l2= strlen(ss)+1;
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){      strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){      finame[l1-l2]= 0;
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){    }
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/  
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];    return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  }
       }  
       ps[i][j]=s2;  
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  /******************************************/
     }  
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  {
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];    int i;
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/    int lg=0;
       }    i=0;
       ps[i][j]=s2;    lg=strlen(t);
     }    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   }      (s[i] = t[i]);
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
     }
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  }
      s1=0;  
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  char *trimbb(char *out, char *in)
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  { /* Trim multiple blanks in line but keeps first blanks if line starts with blanks */
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)    char *s;
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);    s=out;
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);    while (*in != '\0'){
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)      while( *in == ' ' && *(in+1) == ' '){ /* && *(in+1) != '\0'){*/
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];        in++;
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)      }
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];      *out++ = *in++;
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */    }
   } /* end i */    *out='\0';
     return s;
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  }
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  
       ps[ii][jj]=0;  char *cutl(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
       ps[ii][ii]=1;  {
     }    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before first occurence of char 'occ' 
   }       and alocc starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
        gives blocc="abcdef2ghi" and alocc="j".
        If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns blocc
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){    */
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){    char *s, *t, *bl;
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);    t=in;s=in;
    }    while ((*in != occ) && (*in != '\0')){
     printf("\n ");      *alocc++ = *in++;
     }    }
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/    if( *in == occ){
 /*      *(alocc)='\0';
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);      s=++in;
   goto end;*/    }
     return ps;   
 }    if (s == t) {/* occ not found */
       *(alocc-(in-s))='\0';
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/      in=s;
     }
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)    while ( *in != '\0'){
 {      *blocc++ = *in++;
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times    }
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */  
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized    *blocc='\0';
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns    return t;
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */  }
   long i, j, k;  char *cutv(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)  {
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before last occurence of char 'occ' 
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)       and alocc starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];       gives blocc="abcdef2ghi" and alocc="j".
        If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns alocc
   return out;    */
 }    char *s, *t;
     t=in;s=in;
     while (*in != '\0'){
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/      while( *in == occ){
         *blocc++ = *in++;
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )        s=in;
 {      }
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month      *blocc++ = *in++;
      duration (i.e. until    }
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.    if (s == t) /* occ not found */
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step      *(blocc-(in-s))='\0';
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).    else
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be      *(blocc-(in-s)-1)='\0';
      included manually here.    in=s;
     while ( *in != '\0'){
      */      *alocc++ = *in++;
     }
   int i, j, d, h, k;  
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];    *alocc='\0';
   double **newm;    return s;
   }
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */  
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  {
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    int i,j=0;
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    int lg=20;
     }    i=0;
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */    lg=strlen(s);
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
       newm=savm;    }
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */    return j;
       cov[1]=1.;  }
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;  
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  /* void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ) */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)  /* { */
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  /*   /\* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before last occurence of char 'occ'  */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  /*      and v starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2') */
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  /*      gives u="abcdef2ghi" and v="j" *\/ */
   /*   int i,lg,j,p=0; */
   /*   i=0; */
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/  /*   lg=strlen(t); */
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/  /*   for(j=0; j<=lg-1; j++) { */
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  /*     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1; */
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  /*   } */
       savm=oldm;  
       oldm=newm;  /*   for(j=0; j<p; j++) { */
     }  /*     (u[j] = t[j]); */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  /*   } */
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {  /*      u[p]='\0'; */
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];  
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);  /*    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) { */
          */  /*     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]); */
       }  /*   } */
   } /* end h */  /* } */
   return po;  
 }  /********************** nrerror ********************/
   
   void nrerror(char error_text[])
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/  {
 double func( double *x)    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
 {    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];  }
   double **out;  /*********************** vector *******************/
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */  double *vector(int nl, int nh)
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */  {
   long ipmx;    double *v;
   /*extern weight */    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/    return v-nl+NR_END;
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)  }
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);  
   */  /************************ free vector ******************/
   cov[1]=1.;  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
   {
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){  }
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];  
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){  /************************ivector *******************************/
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  {
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){    int *v;
         newm=savm;    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {    return v-nl+NR_END;
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];  }
         }  
          /******************free ivector **************************/
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  {
         savm=oldm;    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
         oldm=newm;  }
          
          /************************lvector *******************************/
       } /* end mult */  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
        {
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);    long *v;
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
       ipmx +=1;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
       sw += weight[i];    return v-nl+NR_END;
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;  }
     } /* end of wave */  
   } /* end of individual */  /******************free lvector **************************/
   void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];  {
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */  }
   return -l;  
 }  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
   int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
        /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/  { 
     long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))    int **m; 
 {    
   int i,j, iter;    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
   double **xi,*delti;    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
   double fret;    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);    m += NR_END; 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    m -= nrl; 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)    
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    
   printf("Powell\n");    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
     if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
     
 }    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
     
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))    return m; 
 {  } 
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;  
   double **hess;  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
   int i, j,jk;  void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
   int *indx;        int **m;
         long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);  { 
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;    free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
   } 
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  
   /******************* matrix *******************************/
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  {
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);    double **m;
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/  
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   }    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
      m += NR_END;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {    m -= nrl;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {  
       if (j>i) {    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);    m[nrl] += NR_END;
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];        m[nrl] -= ncl;
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/  
       }    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
     }    return m;
   }    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) or &(m[1][0])
   printf("\n");  m[i] = address of ith row of the table. &(m[i]) is its value which is another adress
   that of m[i][0]. In order to get the value p m[i][0] but it is unitialized.
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");     */
    }
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  /*************************free matrix ************************/
   x=vector(1,npar);  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
   indx=ivector(1,npar);  {
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);  }
   
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
     x[j]=1;  {
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){    double ***m;
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];  
     }    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   }    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
     m += NR_END;
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");    m -= nrl;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
     }    m[nrl] += NR_END;
     printf("\n");    m[nrl] -= ncl;
   }  
     for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   /* Recompute Inverse */  
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
     m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
       m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {    
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
     x[j]=1;      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
       y[i][j]=x[i];    }
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);    return m; 
     }    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
     printf("\n");             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
   }    */
   */  }
   
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
   free_vector(x,1,npar);  {
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   }
 }  
   /*************** function subdirf ***********/
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])  {
 {    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
   int i;    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
   int l=1, lmax=20;    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
   double k1,k2;    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];    return tmpout;
   double res;  }
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;  
   double fx;  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
   int k=0,kmax=10;  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
   double l1;  {
     
   fx=func(x);    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){    strcat(tmpout,"/");
     l1=pow(10,l);    strcat(tmpout,preop);
     delts=delt;    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){    return tmpout;
       delt = delta*(l1*k);  }
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;  
       k1=func(p2)-fx;  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
       k2=func(p2)-fx;  {
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */    
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
          strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
 #ifdef DEBUG    strcat(tmpout,"/");
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);    strcat(tmpout,preop);
 #endif    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){    return tmpout;
         k=kmax;  }
       }  
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */  /***************** f1dim *************************/
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;  extern int ncom; 
       }  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
         delts=delt;   
       }  double f1dim(double x) 
     }  { 
   }    int j; 
   delti[theta]=delts;    double f;
   return res;    double *xt; 
     
 }    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
     for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
 {    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
   int i;    return f; 
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;  } 
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;  
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];  /*****************brent *************************/
   int k;  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
   { 
   fx=func(x);    int iter; 
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {    double a,b,d,etemp;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];    double fu,fv,fw,fx;
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;    double ftemp;
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
     k1=func(p2)-fx;    double e=0.0; 
     
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;    a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
     k2=func(p2)-fx;    x=w=v=bx; 
      fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;      xm=0.5*(a+b); 
     k3=func(p2)-fx;      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
        /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
     k4=func(p2)-fx;  #ifdef DEBUG
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
 #ifdef DEBUG      fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
 #endif  #endif
   }      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
   return res;        *xmin=x; 
 }        return fx; 
       } 
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/      ftemp=fu;
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
 {        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
   int i,imax,j,k;        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
   double big,dum,sum,temp;        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
   double *vv;        q=2.0*(q-r); 
          if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
   vv=vector(1,n);        q=fabs(q); 
   *d=1.0;        etemp=e; 
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {        e=d; 
     big=0.0;        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;        else { 
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");          d=p/q; 
     vv[i]=1.0/big;          u=x+d; 
   }          if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {        } 
       sum=a[i][j];      } else { 
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
       a[i][j]=sum;      } 
     }      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
     big=0.0;      fu=(*f)(u); 
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {      if (fu <= fx) { 
       sum=a[i][j];        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];          SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
       a[i][j]=sum;          } else { 
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {            if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
         big=dum;            if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
         imax=i;              v=w; 
       }              w=u; 
     }              fv=fw; 
     if (j != imax) {              fw=fu; 
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {            } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
         dum=a[imax][k];              v=u; 
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];              fv=fu; 
         a[j][k]=dum;            } 
       }          } 
       *d = -(*d);    } 
       vv[imax]=vv[j];    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
     }    *xmin=x; 
     indx[j]=imax;    return fx; 
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;  } 
     if (j != n) {  
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;  
     }  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
   }              double (*func)(double)) 
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */  { 
 ;    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
 }    double fu; 
    
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])    *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
 {    *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;    if (*fb > *fa) { 
   double sum;      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
          SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {        } 
     ip=indx[i];    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
     sum=b[ip];    *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
     b[ip]=b[i];    while (*fb > *fc) { 
     if (ii)      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
     else if (sum) ii=i;      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
     b[i]=sum;        (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
   }      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
     sum=b[i];        fu=(*func)(u); 
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];        fu=(*func)(u); 
   }        if (fu < *fc) { 
 }          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
             SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
 /************ Frequencies ********************/            } 
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
 {  /* Some frequencies */        u=ulim; 
          fu=(*func)(u); 
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;      } else { 
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
   double *pp;        fu=(*func)(u); 
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;      } 
   FILE *ficresp;      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];        SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
          } 
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);  } 
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");  /*************** linmin ************************/
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);  
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {  int ncom; 
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);  double *pcom,*xicom;
     exit(0);  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
   }   
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
   j1=0;  { 
      double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
   j=cptcoveff;                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}    double f1dim(double x); 
      void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){                double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    int j; 
       j1++;    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);    double fx,fb,fa;
         scanf("%d", i);*/   
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      ncom=n; 
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)      pcom=vector(1,n); 
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)    xicom=vector(1,n); 
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;    nrfunc=func; 
          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       dateintsum=0;      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
       k2cpt=0;      xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {    } 
         bool=1;    ax=0.0; 
         if  (cptcovn>0) {    xx=1.0; 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
               bool=0;  #ifdef DEBUG
         }    printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
         if (bool==1) {    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){  #endif
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {      xi[j] *= xmin; 
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;      p[j] += xi[j]; 
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;    } 
               if (m<lastpass) {    free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];  } 
               }  
                char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {  {
                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
                 k2cpt++;    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
               }    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
             }    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
           }    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
         }    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
       }    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
            sprintf(ascdiff,"%ld day(s) %ld hour(s) %ld minute(s) %ld second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
       fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);    return ascdiff;
   }
       if  (cptcovn>0) {  
         fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");  /*************** powell ************************/
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");              double (*func)(double [])) 
       }  { 
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);                double (*func)(double [])); 
       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");    int i,ibig,j; 
          double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){    double fp,fptt;
         if(i==(int)agemax+3)    double *xits;
           printf("Total");    int niterf, itmp;
         else  
           printf("Age %d", i);    pt=vector(1,n); 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    ptt=vector(1,n); 
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)    xit=vector(1,n); 
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];    xits=vector(1,n); 
         }    *fret=(*func)(p); 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)      rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)      fp=(*fret); 
             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);      ibig=0; 
           else      del=0.0; 
             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);      rlast_time=rcurr_time;
         }      /* (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
       rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      curr_time = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time);fflush(stdout);
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret,rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time); fflush(ficlog);
         }  /*     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec); */
      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
           pos += pp[jk];        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
           if(pos>=1.e-5)      }
             printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);      printf("\n");
           else      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
           if( i <= (int) agemax){      if(*iter <=3){
             if(pos>=1.e-5){        tml = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tml));
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;  /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
               /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/        rforecast_time=rcurr_time; 
             }        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
             else        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
           }        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
         }        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
                for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)          rforecast_time=rcurr_time+(niterf-*iter)*(rcurr_time-rlast_time);
           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          forecast_time = *localtime(&rforecast_time);
             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);  /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
         if(i <= (int) agemax)          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&forecast_time));
           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");          itmp = strlen(strfor);
         printf("\n");          if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
       }          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
     }          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
   }          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;        }
        }
   fclose(ficresp);      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);        fptt=(*fret); 
    #ifdef DEBUG
   /* End of Freq */        printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
 }        fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   #endif
 /************ Prevalence ********************/        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
 void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
 {  /* Some frequencies */        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
          if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;          del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */          ibig=i; 
   double *pp;        } 
   double pos, k2;  #ifdef DEBUG
         printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
            xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
   j1=0;          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
          }
   j=cptcoveff;        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}          printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
            fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){        }
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){        printf("\n");
       j1++;        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        #endif
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)        } 
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)        if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)  #ifdef DEBUG
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;        int k[2],l;
              k[0]=1;
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {        k[1]=-1;
         bool=1;        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
         if  (cptcovn>0) {        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
               bool=0;          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
         }        }
         if (bool==1) {        printf("\n");
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
               if (m<lastpass) {            fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
                 if (calagedate>0)          }
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
                 else          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];        }
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3)] += weight[i];  #endif
               }  
             }  
           }        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
         }        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
       }        free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        return; 
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)      } 
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
         }      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];        pt[j]=p[j]; 
         }      } 
              fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      if (fptt < fp) { 
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];        if (t < 0.0) { 
         }          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
                  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
                    xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){              }
           if( i <= (int) agemax){  #ifdef DEBUG
             if(pos>=1.e-5){          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
             }          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
           }            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
         }            fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
                  }
       }          printf("\n");
     }          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   }  #endif
         }
        } 
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);    } 
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);  } 
    
 }  /* End of Freq */  /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
   
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
   {
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
 {       matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.  
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).    int i, ii,j,k;
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]    /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
      */    double **newm;
     double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
   int i, mi, m;  
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;      }
   double sum=0.;  
   jmin=1e+5;     cov[1]=1.;
   jmax=-1;   
   jmean=0.;   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
     mi=0;      newm=savm;
     m=firstpass;      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){      cov[2]=agefin;
       if(s[m][i]>=1)      
         mw[++mi][i]=m;      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
       if(m >=lastpass)        cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
         break;        /*printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[%d][Tvar[%d]]=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
       else      }
         m++;      /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
     }/* end while */      /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /\* Useless *\/ */
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){      /*   cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]]; */
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */      
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */      /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
          /* Only death is a correct wave */      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
       mw[mi][i]=m;      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
     }      /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
       /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
     wav[i]=mi;      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
     if(mi==0)      
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);      savm=oldm;
   }      oldm=newm;
       maxmax=0.;
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){        min=1.;
       if (stepm <=0)        max=0.;
         dh[mi][i]=1;        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
       else{          sumnew=0;
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);          /*printf(" prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d \n", i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin);*/
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
           k=k+1;          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;        }
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;        maxmin=max-min;
           sum=sum+j;        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
           /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */      }
           }      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
         }        return prlim;
         else{      }
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));    }
           k=k+1;  }
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;  
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */  
           sum=sum+j;  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
         }  {
         jk= j/stepm;    /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
         jl= j -jk*stepm;       computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;       model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
         if(jl <= -ju)       lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
           dh[mi][i]=jk;       and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
         else       ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;       j<i nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)       j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */       Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
       }       sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
     }       Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
   }       the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
   jmean=sum/k;    */
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);    double s1, lnpijopii;
  }    /*double t34;*/
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/    int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)  
 {      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;        for(j=1; j<i;j++){
   int cptcode=0;          for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
   cptcoveff=0;            /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
              lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;  /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;          }
           ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {  /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {        }
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       Ndum[ij]++;          for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/            /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;            lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
     }  /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
           }
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {          ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;        }
     }      }
     ij=1;      
       for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
         s1=0;
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {        for(j=1; j<i; j++){
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {          /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;        }
                  for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           ij++;          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
         }          /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;        }
       }          /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
     }        ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
   }          /* Computing other pijs */
         for(j=1; j<i; j++)
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
         for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
       ij=Tvar[i];        /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
       Ndum[ij]++;      } /* end i */
     }      
       for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
  ij=1;        for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {          ps[ii][jj]=0;
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){          ps[ii][ii]=1;
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;        }
      ij++;      }
    }      
  }      
        /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
     cptcoveff=ij-1;      /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
 }      /*  printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
       /*   } */
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/      /*   printf("\n "); */
       /* } */
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )      /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
       /*
 {        for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
   /* Health expectancies */        goto end;*/
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;      return ps;
   double age, agelim, hf;  }
   double ***p3mat,***varhe;  
   double **dnewm,**doldm;  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
   double *xp;  
   double **gp, **gm;  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,int nrl, int nrh, int ncl, int nch, int ncolol, int ncoloh, double **b)
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;  {
   int theta;    /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
        b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
   varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int) fage);    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
   xp=vector(1,npar);       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,npar);       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);    int i, j, k;
      for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++){
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");        out[i][k]=0.;
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        for(j=ncl; j<=nch; j++)
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);      }
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    return out;
   }
   if(estepm < stepm){  
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);  
   }  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
   else  hstepm=estepm;    
   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example  {
    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
    * progression inbetween and thus overestimating or underestimating according       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise       for the memory).
    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
        included manually here. 
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */  
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.       */
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim  
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.    int i, j, d, h, k;
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */    double **newm;
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the  
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   */        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */      }
     /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
   agelim=AGESUP;    for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */        newm=savm;
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */        cov[1]=1.;
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/        cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) 
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);          cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
           cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored  
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */  
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);          /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
          /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
         savm=oldm;
     /* Computing Variances of health expectancies */        oldm=newm;
       }
      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
       }          /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);          }
        /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
       cptj=0;    } /* end h */
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){    return po;
           cptj=cptj+1;  }
           for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){  
             gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;  
           }  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
         }  double func( double *x)
       }  {
          int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
          double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)    double **out;
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
          int s1, s2;
       cptj=0;    double bbh, survp;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){    long ipmx;
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){    /*extern weight */
           cptj=cptj+1;    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
           for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
             gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
           }      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
         }    */
       }    cov[1]=1.;
        
        for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate*2; j++)    if(mle==1){
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];        /* Computes the values of the ncovmodel covariates of the model
         }           depending if the covariates are fixed or variying (age dependent) and stores them in cov[]
            Then computes with function pmij which return a matrix p[i][j] giving the elementary probability
      }           to be observed in j being in i according to the model.
             */
 /* End theta */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++){ /* Simple and product covariates without age* products */
           cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);        }
         /* In model V2+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2 Tvar[1] is V2, Tvar[2=V1*V4] 
      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)           is 6, Tvar[3=age*V3] should not be computed because of age Tvar[4=V3*V2] 
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate*2;j++)           has been calculated etc */
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
               oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)            }
         varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
             newm=savm;
      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2]; /* Tage[kk] gives the data-covariate associated with age */
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);            }
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,nlstate*2,gradg[k]);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)            savm=oldm;
             varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;            oldm=newm;
       }          } /* end mult */
     }        
           /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
                /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
     /* Computing expectancies */           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
                     * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
 /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/           * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
            * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
         }           * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
            * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );           */
     cptj=0;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
         cptj++;          /* bias bh is positive if real duration
         fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
       }           */
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
              if( s2 > nlstate){ 
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known 
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);               then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to 
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);               die between last step unit time and current  step unit time, 
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);               which is also equal to probability to die before dh 
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);               minus probability to die before dh-stepm . 
   }               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);          health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
   free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int)fage);          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
 }          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
           introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
 /************ Variance ******************/          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm)          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
 {          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
   /* Variance of health expectancies */          and month of death but the probability to survive from last
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
   double **newm;          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
   double **dnewm,**doldm;          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;          mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
   int k, cptcode;          which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
   double *xp;          lower mortality.
   double **gp, **gm;            */
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   double ***p3mat;  
   double age,agelim, hf;  
   int theta;          } else if  (s2==-2) {
             for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");            /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)            lli= log(survp);
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          }
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);          
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");          else if  (s2==-4) { 
             for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)  
   xp=vector(1,npar);              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);            lli= log(survp); 
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          } 
    
   if(estepm < stepm){          else if  (s2==-5) { 
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)  
   }              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
   else  hstepm=estepm;              lli= log(survp); 
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */          } 
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.          
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim          else{
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
      and note for a fixed period like k years */          } 
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if          /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same          ipmx +=1;
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.          sw += weight[i];
   */          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */        } /* end of wave */
   agelim = AGESUP;      } /* end of individual */
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */    }  else if(mle==2){
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
               savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){            }
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);            newm=savm;
       }            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);              for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
             }
       if (popbased==1) {            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];            savm=oldm;
       }            oldm=newm;
            } /* end mult */
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){        
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
         }          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
       }          ipmx +=1;
              sw += weight[i];
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        } /* end of wave */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);        } /* end of individual */
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
        for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       if (popbased==1) {        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
       }            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
               oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){            }
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];            newm=savm;
         }            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
       }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)            }
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
         }            savm=oldm;
     } /* End theta */            oldm=newm;
           } /* end mult */
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        
           s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];          ipmx +=1;
           sw += weight[i];
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)        } /* end of wave */
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)      } /* end of individual */
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
       for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;            }
       }          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
     }            newm=savm;
             cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){            }
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);          
       }            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);            savm=oldm;
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);            oldm=newm;
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);          } /* end mult */
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   } /* End age */          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
            if( s2 > nlstate){ 
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);          }else{
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
           }
 }          ipmx +=1;
           sw += weight[i];
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
 {        } /* end of wave */
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */      } /* end of individual */
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
   double **newm;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   double **dnewm,**doldm;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   int k, cptcode;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   double *xp;            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   double *gp, *gm;              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   double **gradg, **trgradg;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   double age,agelim;            }
   int theta;          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                newm=savm;
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalence's limit\n");            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);            }
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");          
             out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   xp=vector(1,npar);                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);            savm=oldm;
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);            oldm=newm;
            } /* end mult */
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */        
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   agelim = AGESUP;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */          ipmx +=1;
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;          sw += weight[i];
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);        } /* end of wave */
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);      } /* end of individual */
     } /* End of if */
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
       }    return -l;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);  }
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
      double funcone( double *x)
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */  {
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];    double **out;
     double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double llt;
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];    int s1, s2;
     } /* End theta */    double bbh, survp;
     /*extern weight */
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
     /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];    */
     cov[1]=1.;
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);  
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);    for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");          }
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);          newm=savm;
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   } /* End age */            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
           }
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);          /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, */
 }          /*           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); */
           savm=oldm;
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/          oldm=newm;
 void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)        } /* end mult */
 {        
   int i, j, i1, k1, j1, z1;        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   int k=0, cptcode;        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   double **dnewm,**doldm;        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
   double *xp;        /* bias is positive if real duration
   double *gp, *gm;         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
   double **gradg, **trgradg;         */
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
   int theta;          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];        } else if  (s2==-2) {
           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);          lli= log(survp);
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {        }else if (mle==1){
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
   }        } else if(mle==2){
   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
          } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
 fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and standard deviation in parentheses\n");          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++)        } else{  /* mle=0 back to 1 */
       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
           /*lli=log(out[s1][s2]); */ /* Original formula */
         } /* End of if */
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");        ipmx +=1;
         sw += weight[i];
         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   xp=vector(1,npar);        /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);        if(globpr){
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
     %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
   cov[1]=1;                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
   j=cptcoveff;                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
   j1=0;            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
   for(k1=1; k1<=1;k1++){            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){          }
     j1++;          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
         }
     if  (cptcovn>0) {      } /* end of wave */
       fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");    } /* end of individual */
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
       fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#");    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
     }    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
        if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){      gipmx=ipmx;
         cov[2]=age;      gsw=sw;
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {    }
           cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];    return -l;
            }
         }  
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  /*************** function likelione ***********/
           cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
          {
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
         trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);       the selection of individuals/waves and
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));       Plotting could be done.
         */
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    int k;
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)  
             xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
                strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
                if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
           k=0;        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      }
               k=k+1;      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
               gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
             }      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
           }      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
                  fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)      fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
             xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    }
      
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
           k=0;    if(*globpri !=0){
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){      fclose(ficresilk);
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
               k=k+1;      fflush(fichtm); 
               gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];    } 
             }    return;
           }  }
        
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)  
             gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];    /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
         }  
   void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)  {
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    int i,j, iter;
             trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];    double **xi;
            double fret;
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);    /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
            xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
         pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
              for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
         k=0;        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){    strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
             k=k+1;    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
             gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
           }      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
          }
      /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
      }*/        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
         fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);  
     powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++)  
           fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e (%.3e) ",gm[i],sqrt(doldm[i][i]));    free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
      fclose(ficrespow);
       }    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
     }    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));  
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);  }
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);  
   }  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
   fclose(ficresprob);  {
      double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
 }    double **hess;
     int i, j,jk;
 /******************* Printing html file ***********/    int *indx;
 void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \  
                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
                   int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char optionfile[], \    double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
                   char optionfilehtm[],char rfileres[], char optionfilegnuplot[],\    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
                   char version[], int popforecast, int estepm ,/* \ */    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \    double gompertz(double p[]);
                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;  
   FILE *fichtm;    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
   /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {     
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
   }      
       /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
   fprintf(fichtm,"<body> <font size=\"2\">%s </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n          printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
 Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n    }
 \n    
 Total number of observations=%d <br>\n    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">        if (j>i) { 
  <ul><li>Parameter files<br>\n          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
  - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br></ul>\n",version,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot);          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
           
    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li>Result files (first order: no variance)<br>\n          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
  - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>\n        }
  - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>\n      }
  - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months):    }
    <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>\n</li>", \    printf("\n");
   jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,fileres,fileres,stepm,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,estepm,fileres,fileres);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   
  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li> Result files (second order: variances)<br>\n    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
  - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
  - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"prob%s\">prob%s</a> <br>\n    
  - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\n    a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
  - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\n    y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
  - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\n",rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres, estepm, fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);    x=vector(1,npar);
     indx=ivector(1,npar);
  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
         <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);  
  else    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model);      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
 fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");      x[j]=1;
       lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
  m=cptcoveff;      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}        matcov[i][j]=x[i];
       }
  jj1=0;    }
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){  
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
        jj1++;    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
        if (cptcovn > 0) {    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)        printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");      }
        }      printf("\n");
        /* Pij */      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before: pe%s%d1.png<br>    }
 <img src=\"pe%s%d1.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);      
        /* Quasi-incidences */    /* Recompute Inverse */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: pe%s%d2.png<br>    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
 <img src=\"pe%s%d2.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);          for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
        /* Stable prevalence in each health state */    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){  
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br>    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);  
        }    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident      x[j]=1;
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.png <br>      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);        for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
      }        y[i][j]=x[i];
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.png <br>        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);      }
      }      printf("\n");
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.png<br>    }
 <img src=\"e%s%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);    */
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");  
    }    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
    }    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
 fclose(fichtm);    free_vector(x,1,npar);
 }    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
     free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
 /******************* Gnuplot file **************/  
 void printinggnuplot(char fileres[],char optionfilefiname[],char optionfile[],char optionfilegnuplot[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){  
   }
   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;  
   int ng;  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp.txt");  {
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {    int i;
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);    int l=1, lmax=20;
   }    double k1,k2;
     double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
 #ifdef windows    double res;
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
 #endif    double fx;
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    int k=0,kmax=10;
      double l1;
  /* 1eme*/  
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {    fx=func(x);
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum */
 #ifdef windows      l1=pow(10,l);
      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);      delts=delt;
      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
 #endif        delt = delta*(l1*k);
 #ifdef unix        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        k1=func(p2)-fx;   /* Might be negative if too close to the theoretical maximum */
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres);        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
 #endif        k2=func(p2)-fx;
         /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");        
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");  #ifdef DEBUGHESS
 }        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {  #endif
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
 }          k=kmax;
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);        }
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");          k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");        }
 }          else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));          delts=delt;
 #ifdef unix        }
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n");      }
 #endif    }
    }    delti[theta]=delts;
   }    return res; 
   /*2 eme*/    
   }
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {  
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);  double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);  {
        int i;
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {    int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
       k=2*i;    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    double p2[MAXPARM+1];
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    int k;
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");  
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    fx=func(x);
 }      for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {      k1=func(p2)-fx;
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
 }        p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");      k2=func(p2)-fx;
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      k3=func(p2)-fx;
 }      
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
     }      k4=func(p2)-fx;
   }      res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
    #ifdef DEBUG
   /*3eme*/      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {  #endif
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {    }
       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);    return res;
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);  }
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);  
       /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
  for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
 fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);  { 
 fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);    int i,imax,j,k; 
  for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");    double big,dum,sum,temp; 
 fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);    double *vv; 
    
 */    vv=vector(1,n); 
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {    *d=1.0; 
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
       big=0.0; 
       }      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
     }        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
   }      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
        vv[i]=1.0/big; 
   /* CV preval stat */    } 
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {      for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
       k=3;        sum=a[i][j]; 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"p%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);        a[i][j]=sum; 
       } 
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)      big=0.0; 
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);        sum=a[i][j]; 
              for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);        a[i][j]=sum; 
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;          big=dum; 
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);          imax=i; 
       }        } 
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);        } 
     }      if (j != imax) { 
   }          for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
            dum=a[imax][k]; 
   /* proba elementaires */          a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){          a[j][k]=dum; 
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){        } 
       if (k != i) {        *d = -(*d); 
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){        vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
              } 
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);      indx[j]=imax; 
           jk++;      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");      if (j != n) { 
         }        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
       }        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
     }      } 
    }    } 
     free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/  ;
      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {  } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk,ng);  
        if (ng==2)  void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");  { 
        else    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");    double sum; 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);   
        i=1;    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {      ip=indx[i]; 
          k3=i;      sum=b[ip]; 
          for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {      b[ip]=b[i]; 
            if (k != k2){      if (ii) 
              if(ng==2)        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
                fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",stepm/YEARM,i,i+1);      else if (sum) ii=i; 
              else      b[i]=sum; 
                fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);    } 
              ij=1;    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
              for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {      sum=b[i]; 
                if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
                  ij++;    } 
                }  } 
                else  
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
              }  {
              fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");    fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#%s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,fullversion,strstart);
                }
              for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){    
                fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);  /************ Frequencies ********************/
                ij=1;  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){  {  /* Some frequencies */
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {    
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);    int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,j;
                    ij++;    int first;
                  }    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
                  else    double *pp, **prop;
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
                }    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
                fprintf(ficgp,")");    
              }    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
              fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");    strcpy(fileresp,"p");
              i=i+ncovmodel;    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
            }    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
          }      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
        }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
      }      exit(0);
    }    }
    fclose(ficgp);    freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
 }  /* end gnuplot */    j1=0;
     
     j=cptcoveff;
 /*************** Moving average **************/    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
 void movingaverage(double agedeb, double fage,double ageminpar, double ***mobaverage){  
     first=1;
   int i, cpt, cptcod;  
     for (agedeb=ageminpar; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++)    /* for(k1=1; k1<=j ; k1++){   /* Loop on covariates */
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    /*  for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ /* Now it is 2 */
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)    /*    j1++;
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;  */
        for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){
     for (agedeb=ageminpar+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){          scanf("%d", i);*/
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){          for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
           }              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;        
         }        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
       }          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     }            prop[i][m]=0;
            
 }        dateintsum=0;
         k2cpt=0;
         for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
 /************** Forecasting ******************/          bool=1;
 prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){          if  (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
              for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)       
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]){
   int *popage;                  /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;                bool=0;
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;                /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtab[%d][%d]=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtab[%d][%d]=%d, j1=%d\n", 
   double ***p3mat;                  bool,i,z1, z1, Tvaraff[z1],i,covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i],j1,z1,codtab[j1][z1],
   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];                  j1,z1,nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]],j1);*/
                 /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtab[7][3]=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
  agelim=AGESUP;              } 
 calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;          }
    
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);          if (bool==1){
              for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
                k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");              /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
   }                if (m<lastpass) {
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;                }
                 
   if (mobilav==1) {                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, ageminpar, mobaverage);                  k2cpt++;
   }                }
                 /*}*/
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;            }
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;          }
          } /* end i */
   agelim=AGESUP;         
          /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
   hstepm=1;        pstamp(ficresp);
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;        if  (cptcovn>0) {
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   anprojmean=yp;          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
   mprojmean=yp;          fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   jprojmean=yp;          fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n#");
   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;        }
   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
            fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
   fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
          
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){          if(i==iagemax+3){
       k=k+1;            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");          }else{
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {            if(first==1){
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);              first=0;
       }              printf("See log file for details...\n");
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");            }
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);          }
                for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                  for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=(anproj2-anproj1);cpt++) {              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");          }
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);            for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
             for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;              if(first==1){
                          printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);              }
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);              }else{
                      if(first==1)
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f %.f ",anproj1+cpt,agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);            }
             }          }
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {  
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                          for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
                 if (mobilav==1)              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];          }       
                 else {          for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];            pos += pp[jk];
                 }            posprop += prop[jk][i];
                          }
               }          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){            if(pos>=1.e-5){
                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);              if(first==1)
                                        printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
               }              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
             }            }else{
           }              if(first==1)
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
         }              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
       }            }
     }            if( i <= iagemax){
   }              if(pos>=1.e-5){
                        fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
                 /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
   fclose(ficresf);              }
 }              else
 /************** Forecasting ******************/                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
 populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){            }
            }
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;          
   int *popage;          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;              if(first==1)
   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
                 fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);              }
   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          if(i <= iagemax)
   agelim=AGESUP;            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
   calagedate=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;          if(first==1)
              printf("Others in log...\n");
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
          }
          /*}*/
   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");    }
   strcat(filerespop,fileres);    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {   
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);    fclose(ficresp);
   }    free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;    /* End of Freq */
   }
   if (mobilav==1) {  
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  /************ Prevalence ********************/
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, ageminpar, mobaverage);  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
   }  {  
     /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
      */
   agelim=AGESUP;   
      int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,j;
   hstepm=1;    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;    double *pp, **prop;
      double pos,posprop; 
   if (popforecast==1) {    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {    int iagemin, iagemax;
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);    int first; /** to stop verbosity which is redirected to log file */
     }  
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);    iagemin= (int) agemin;
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);    iagemax= (int) agemax;
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
        prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
     i=1;      /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;    j1=0;
        
     imx=i;    /*j=cptcoveff;*/
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   }    
     first=1;
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){    for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){      /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
       k=k+1;        j1++;*/
       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");        
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
       }            prop[i][m]=0.0;
       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");       
       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);          bool=1;
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");          if  (cptcovn>0) {
                  for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);                  bool=0;
                  } 
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){          if (bool==1) { 
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
                        if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);                  if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
                        if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);                  prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
             }                } 
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {              }
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;            } /* end selection of waves */
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                        }
                 if (mobilav==1)        }
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
                 else {          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];            posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
                 }          } 
               }          
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;            if( i <=  iagemax){ 
                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);              if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
               }              } else{
             }                if(first==1){
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){                  first=0;
               kk1=0.;                  printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){                }
                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];              }
                 }            } 
                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedate+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];          }/* end jk */ 
             }        }/* end i */ 
       /*} *//* end i1 */
             if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    } /* end j1 */
               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);    
           }    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
         }    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
       }  }  /* End of prevalence */
    
   /******/  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
   
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);    {
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);       Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
                 dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;       */
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);    
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    int i, mi, m;
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
             }    int first;
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;    double sum=0.;
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                  first=0;
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];        jmin=1e+5;
               }    jmax=-1;
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);    jmean=0.;
             }    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
           }      mi=0;
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      m=firstpass;
         }      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
       }        if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
    }          mw[++mi][i]=m;
   }        if(m >=lastpass)
            break;
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);        else
           m++;
   if (popforecast==1) {      }/* end while */
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
   }           /* Only death is a correct wave */
   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);        mw[mi][i]=m;
   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);      }
   fclose(ficrespop);  
 }      wav[i]=mi;
       if(mi==0){
 /***********************************************/        nbwarn++;
 /**************** Main Program *****************/        if(first==0){
 /***********************************************/          printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
           first=1;
 int main(int argc, char *argv[])        }
 {        if(first==1){
           fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;        }
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;      } /* end mi==0 */
   double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;    } /* End individuals */
   
   double fret;    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
   double **xi,tmp,delta;      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
         if (stepm <=0)
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */          dh[mi][i]=1;
   double ***p3mat;        else{
   int *indx;          if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
   char title[MAXLINE];              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];              if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
   char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];              else if(j<0){
                  nberr++;
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];                printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                 j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];                printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];              }
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;              k=k+1;
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */              if (j >= jmax){
   int c,  h , cpt,l;                jmax=j;
   int ju,jl, mi;                ijmax=i;
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;              }
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;              if (j <= jmin){
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;                jmin=j;
   int hstepm, nhstepm;                ijmin=i;
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1, calagedate;              }
               sum=sum+j;
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;              /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
   double ftolpl=FTOL;              /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
   double **prlim;            }
   double *severity;          }
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */          else{
   double  *p;            j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */  /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */  
   double *delti; /* Scale */            k=k+1;
   double ***eij, ***vareij;            if (j >= jmax) {
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */              jmax=j;
   double *epj, vepp;              ijmax=i;
   double kk1, kk2;            }
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;            else if (j <= jmin){
                jmin=j;
               ijmin=i;
   char version[80]="Imach version 0.8d, May 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";            }
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
             /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
             if(j<0){
   char z[1]="c", occ;              nberr++;
 #include <sys/time.h>              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
 #include <time.h>              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];            }
              sum=sum+j;
   /* long total_usecs;          }
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;          jk= j/stepm;
            jl= j -jk*stepm;
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
   getcwd(pathcd, size);          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
             if(jl==0){
   printf("\n%s",version);              dh[mi][i]=jk;
   if(argc <=1){              bh[mi][i]=0;
     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
     scanf("%s",pathtot);                    * to avoid the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
   }              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
   else{              bh[mi][i]=ju;
     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);            }
   }          }else{
   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/            if(jl <= -ju){
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);              dh[mi][i]=jk;
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/                                   * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
                                    */
   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);            }
    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);            else{
   chdir(path);              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
   replace(pathc,path);              bh[mi][i]=ju;
             }
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/            if(dh[mi][i]==0){
               dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
   strcpy(fileres,"r");              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */            }
           } /* end if mle */
   /*---------arguments file --------*/        }
       } /* end wave */
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {    }
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);    jmean=sum/k;
     goto end;    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
   }    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %d) Max=%d (%d) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
    }
   strcpy(filereso,"o");  
   strcat(filereso,fileres);  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx, int *Ndum)
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;  {
   }    /**< Uses cptcovn+2*cptcovprod as the number of covariates */
     /*      Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  find 'n' in Vn and stores in Tvar. If model=V2+V1 Tvar[1]=2 and Tvar[2]=1 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    /* Boring subroutine which should only output nbcode[Tvar[j]][k]
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){     * Tvar[5] in V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is 2 (V2)
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]= 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    */
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);    int ij=1, k=0, j=0, i=0, maxncov=NCOVMAX;
   }    int modmaxcovj=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    int cptcode=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
     int modmincovj=0; /* Modality min of covariates j */
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);  
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);  
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);    cptcoveff=0; 
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){   
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    for (k=-1; k < maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    for (k=1; k <= maxncov; k++) ncodemax[k]=0; /* Horrible constant again replaced by NCOVMAX */
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);    /* Loop on covariates without age and products */
   }    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovs); j++) { /* model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4 : V1 + V3 = 2 only */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Lopp on individuals: reads the data file to get the maximum value of the 
                                   modality of this covariate Vj*/ 
            ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij=0 or 1 or -1. Value of the covariate Tvar[j] for individual i
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);                                      * If product of Vn*Vm, still boolean *:
   cptcovn=0;                                      * If it was coded 1, 2, 3, 4 should be splitted into 3 boolean variables
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;                                      * 1 => 0 0 0, 2 => 0 0 1, 3 => 0 1 1, 4=1 0 0   */
         /* Finds for covariate j, n=Tvar[j] of Vn . ij is the
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;                                        modality of the nth covariate of individual i. */
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */        if (ij > modmaxcovj)
            modmaxcovj=ij; 
   /* Read guess parameters */        else if (ij < modmincovj) 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          modmincovj=ij; 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        if ((ij < -1) && (ij > NCOVMAX)){
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          printf( "Error: minimal is less than -1 or maximal is bigger than %d. Exiting. \n", NCOVMAX );
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          exit(1);
     puts(line);        }else
     fputs(line,ficparo);        Ndum[ij]++; /*counts and stores the occurence of this modality 0, 1, -1*/
   }        /*  If coded 1, 2, 3 , counts the number of 1 Ndum[1], number of 2, Ndum[2], etc */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
          /* getting the maximum value of the modality of the covariate
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);           (should be 0 or 1 now) Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is coded 0 and
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)           female is 1, then modmaxcovj=1.*/
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){      }
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);      printf(" Minimal and maximal values of %d th covariate V%d: min=%d max=%d \n", j, Tvar[j], modmincovj, modmaxcovj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);      cptcode=modmaxcovj;
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);      /* Ndum[0] = frequency of 0 for model-covariate j, Ndum[1] frequency of 1 etc. */
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){     /*for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {*/
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);      for (i=modmincovj;  i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i=-1 ? 0 and 1*//* For each value of the modality of model-cov j */
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);        printf("Frequencies of covariates %d V%d %d\n", j, Tvar[j], Ndum[i]);
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);        if( Ndum[i] != 0 ){ /* Counts if nobody answered, empty modality */
       }          ncodemax[j]++;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of non-null modalities of the j th covariate. */
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");        }
       printf("\n");        /* In fact  ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables only) but it could be more for
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");           historical reasons: 3 if coded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and Ndum[2]=0 */
     }      } /* Ndum[-1] number of undefined modalities */
    
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;      /* j is a covariate, n=Tvar[j] of Vn; Fills nbcode */
       /* For covariate j, modalities could be 1, 2, 3, 4. If Ndum[2]=0 ncodemax[j] is not 4 but 3 */
   p=param[1][1];      /* If Ndum[3}= 635; Ndum[4]=0; Ndum[5]=0; Ndum[6]=27; Ndum[7]=125;
           modmincovj=3; modmaxcovj = 7;
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */         There are only 3 modalities non empty (or 2 if 27 is too few) : ncodemax[j]=3;
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){         which will be coded 0, 1, 2 which in binary on 3-1 digits are 0=00 1=01, 2=10; defining two dummy 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);         variables V1_1 and V1_2.
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);         nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
     puts(line);         nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]=0;
     fputs(line,ficparo);         nbcode[Tvar[j]][2]=1;
   }         nbcode[Tvar[j]][3]=2;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      */
       ij=1; /* ij is similar to i but can jumps over null modalities */
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);      for (i=modmincovj; i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i= 1 to 2 for dichotomous, or from 1 to 3 */
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */        for (k=0; k<= cptcode; k++) { /* k=-1 ? k=0 to 1 *//* Could be 1 to 4 */
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){          /*recode from 0 */
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){          if (Ndum[k] != 0) { /* If at least one individual responded to this modality k */
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);            nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;  /* stores the modality in an array nbcode. 
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);                                       k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex 
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);                                       then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){            ij++;
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);          }
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);          if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);        }  /* end of loop on */
       }      } /* end of loop on modality */ 
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");    } /* end of loop on model-covariate j. nbcode[Tvarj][1]=0 and nbcode[Tvarj][2]=1 sets the value of covariate j*/  
       printf("\n");    
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");   for (k=-1; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0; 
     }    
   }    for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { /* -2, cste and age */ 
   delti=delti3[1][1];     /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/ 
       ij=Tvar[i]; /* Tvar might be -1 if status was unknown */ 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */     Ndum[ij]++; 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){   } 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);   ij=1;
     puts(line);   for (i=0; i<=  maxncov-1; i++) { /* modmaxcovj is unknown here. Only Ndum[2(V2),3(age*V3), 5(V3*V2) 6(V1*V4) */
     fputs(line,ficparo);     /*printf("Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
   }     if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
   ungetc(c,ficpar);       /*printf("diff Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
         Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing (unclear) */
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);       ij++;
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){     }else
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);         Tvaraff[ij]=0;
     printf("%s",str);   }
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);   ij--;
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){   cptcoveff=ij; /*Number of total covariates*/
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);  
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);  }
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);  
     }  
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
     printf("\n");  
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");  void evsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
   }  
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)  {
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)    /* Health expectancies, no variances */
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2;
        int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
   printf("\n");    double age, agelim, hf;
     double ***p3mat;
     double eip;
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/  
      strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */    pstamp(ficreseij);
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/    fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
      strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;        fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
     }      }
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);      fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
        }
     /*-------- data file ----------*/    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {  
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;    
     }    if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     n= lastobs;    }
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);    else  hstepm=estepm;   
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
     num=ivector(1,n);     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
     moisnais=vector(1,n);     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
     annais=vector(1,n);     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
     moisdc=vector(1,n);     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
     andc=vector(1,n);     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
     agedc=vector(1,n);     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
     cod=ivector(1,n);     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
     weight=vector(1,n);     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);  
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);           nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
        and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
     i=1;    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
               you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);    */
           strcpy(line,stra);    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    agelim=AGESUP;
         }    /* If stepm=6 months */
              /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      
   /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  
         }    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
         num[i]=atol(stra);      nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
              /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
   
         i=i+1;      /* If stepm=6 months */
       }      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
     }         in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);      
        scanf("%d",i);*/      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepma,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */      
       hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){      
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;      
     }*/      /* Computing expectancies */
    /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
      if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1;        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
      printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
              eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
              
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);  
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);          }
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);  
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
   Tage=ivector(1,15);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
            eip=0;
   if (strlen(model) >1){        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;          eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
     j=nbocc(model,'+');          fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');        }
     cptcovn=j+1;        fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
     cptcovprod=j1;      }
          fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
     strcpy(modelsav,model);      
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){    }
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
       goto end;    printf("\n");
     }    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){  }
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');  
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/  
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/  {
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {    /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');     to initial status i, ei. .
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {    */
           cptcovprod--;    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');    int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);    double age, agelim, hf;
           cptcovage++;    double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;    double **dnewm,**doldm;
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/    double *xp, *xm;
         }    double **gp, **gm;
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
           cptcovprod--;    int theta;
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');  
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);    double eip, vip;
           cptcovage++;  
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;    varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         }    xp=vector(1,npar);
         else {    xm=vector(1,npar);
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
           Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');    
           Tprod[k1]=i;    pstamp(ficresstdeij);
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)        fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
             covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];      fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
           k1++;    }
           k2=k2+2;    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
         }  
       }    pstamp(ficrescveij);
       else {    fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/    fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);        cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
       }        for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);            for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);            cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
         scanf("%d",i);*/            if(cptj2 <= cptj)
     }              fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
 }          }
        }
   /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);    fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);    
   scanf("%d ",i);*/    if(estepm < stepm){
     fclose(fic);      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     /*  if(mle==1){*/    else  hstepm=estepm;   
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
     }     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
      * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
          anint[m][i]=9999;     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
          s[m][i]=-1;  
        }    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
      if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999 & s[m][i]>nlstate) s[m][i]=-1;    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
       }       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
     }       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
         if(s[m][i] >0){       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
             if(agedc[i]>0)       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)    */
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/  
            else {    /* If stepm=6 months */
               if (andc[i]!=9999){    /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);    agelim=AGESUP;
               agev[m][i]=-1;    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); 
               }    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
             }    /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
           }    nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */    
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);    p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)    p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
               agev[m][i]=1;    gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){    trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
               agemin=agev[m][i];    gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
             }  
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
               agemax=agev[m][i];      nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
             }      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/  
           }      /* If stepm=6 months */
           else { /* =9 */      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
             agev[m][i]=1;         in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
             s[m][i]=-1;      
           }      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
         }  
         else /*= 0 Unknown */      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
           agev[m][i]=1;      /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
       }         decrease memory allocation */
          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
     }        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){          xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {        }
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");          hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
           goto end;        hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
         }    
       }        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
     }          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
             for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);              gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
               gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);            }
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);          }
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);        }
     free_vector(annais,1,n);       
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);        for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);            gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
     free_vector(andc,1,n);          }
       }/* End theta */
          
     wav=ivector(1,imx);      
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
              for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
     /* Concatenates waves */            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);      
   
        for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);        for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);          varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
       ncodemax[1]=1;  
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
    h=0;        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
            matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){          for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){            for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){              varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){        }
            h++;      }
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;  
            /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/      /* Computing expectancies */
          }      hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
        }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
      }        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
    }          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
    /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
       codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */            
    /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
       for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){  
       printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);          }
       }  
       printf("\n");      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
       }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
       scanf("%d",i);*/        eip=0.;
            vip=0.;
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */          eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
           for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
                vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
              fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        }
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */      }
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */  
            fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */          cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
           for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
     if(mle==1){            for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);              cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
     }              if(cptj2 <= cptj)
                    fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
     /*--------- results files --------------*/            }
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);        }
        fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
      
    jk=1;    }
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){    free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
        if (k != i)    free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          {    free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);    printf("\n");
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){  
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);    free_vector(xm,1,npar);
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
              jk++;    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
            }    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
            printf("\n");    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");  }
          }  
      }  /************ Variance ******************/
    }  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
  if(mle==1){  {
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */    /* Variance of health expectancies */
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);    /* double **newm;*/
  }    double **dnewm,**doldm;
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    int k, cptcode;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){    double *xp;
         if (j!=i) {    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){    double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);    double ***p3mat;
             jk++;    double age,agelim, hf;
           }    double ***mobaverage;
           printf("\n");    int theta;
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");    char digit[4];
         }    char digitp[25];
       }  
      }    char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
      
     k=1;    if(popbased==1){
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");      if(mobilav!=0)
     printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");        strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){      else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;    }
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;    else 
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);      strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/  
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);    if (mobilav!=0) {
       printf("%3d",i);      mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){      if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }      }
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");    }
       printf("\n");  
       k++;    strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
     }    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
        /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
       ungetc(c,ficpar);    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
       puts(line);    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
       fputs(line,ficparo);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
     }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    }
     estepm=0;    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);   
     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     if (fage <= 2) {    pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
       bage = ageminpar;    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
       fage = agemaxpar;    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
     }    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);    }  
      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
     puts(line);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
     fputs(line,ficparo);  /*   } */
   }    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    pstamp(ficresvij);
      fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2);    if(popbased==1)
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
  fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);    else
            fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
     puts(line);        fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
     fputs(line,ficparo);    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
   }  
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    xp=vector(1,npar);
      dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
    dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
    dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);      gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);      gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
      trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    if(estepm < stepm){
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     puts(line);    }
     fputs(line,ficparo);    else  hstepm=estepm;   
   }    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
        nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
   fscanf(ficpar,"starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilav);       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
 fprintf(ficparo,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);       Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */
 fprintf(ficres,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
        survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
        means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    */
     puts(line);    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
     fputs(line,ficparo);    agelim = AGESUP;
   }    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
   fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);  
   
 /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
  printinggnuplot(fileres,optionfilefiname,optionfile,optionfilegnuplot, ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
            xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
 /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/        }
  chdir(path);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
          prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
  free_ivector(wav,1,imx);  
  free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);        if (popbased==1) {
  free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);            if(mobilav ==0){
  free_ivector(num,1,n);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
  free_vector(agedc,1,n);              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
  /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
  fclose(ficparo);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
  fclose(ficres);              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
           }
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/        }
     
   printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,optionfile,optionfilehtm,rfileres,optionfilegnuplot,version,popforecast,estepm,jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
              for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
            }
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");        }
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;           as a weighted average of prlim.
   }        */
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);        }    
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");        /* end probability of death */
    
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */   
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */        if (popbased==1) {
   k=0;          if(mobilav ==0){
   agebase=ageminpar;            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   agelim=agemaxpar;              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
   ftolpl=1.e-10;          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
   i1=cptcoveff;            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
           }
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){        }
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){  
         k=k+1;        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);          }
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");        }
                /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);           as a weighted average of prlim.
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );        */
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }        }    
       }        /* end probability of death */
     }  
   fclose(ficrespl);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
            }
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);  
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
   }        }
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);  
        } /* End theta */
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;  
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
   
   agelim=AGESUP;      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
              trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   k=0;  
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
       k=k+1;          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");    
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */  
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);            matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);        }
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");      }
            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );      /* pptj */
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)      matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");        for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
              }          varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      /* end ppptj */
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");      /*  x centered again */
         }      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
     }      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   }   
       if (popbased==1) {
   varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);        if(mobilav ==0){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   fclose(ficrespij);            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         }else{ /* mobilav */ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/            prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
   if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){        }
     prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);      }
     if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);               
   }      /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
   else{         computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     erreur=108;         as a weighted average of prlim.
     printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);      */
   }      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/      }    
       /* end probability of death */
   strcpy(filerest,"t");  
   strcat(filerest,fileres);      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
   }        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
         }
       } 
   strcpy(filerese,"e");      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   strcat(filerese,fileres);  
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {      fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   }        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);          fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
         }
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
   }      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   calagedate=-1;    } /* End age */
 prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);    free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   k=0;    free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240");
       k=k+1;    /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");    fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
     /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");  */
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");  
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);      free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
      free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);    free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
        varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm);    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
        fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtm); 
    }  /* end varevsij */
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");  
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);  /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
   {
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);    /* Variance of prevalence limit */
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);    double **newm;
         if (popbased==1) {    double **dnewm,**doldm;
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];    int k, cptcode;
         }    double *xp;
            double *gp, *gm;
         fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);    double **gradg, **trgradg;
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){    double age,agelim;
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {    int theta;
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];    
             /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/    pstamp(ficresvpl);
           }    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
         }    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)  
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];    xp=vector(1,npar);
         fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));    
         }    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
       }    agelim = AGESUP;
     }    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
   }      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
 free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);      if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
     free_vector(weight,1,n);      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
   fclose(ficreseij);      gp=vector(1,nlstate);
   fclose(ficresvij);      gm=vector(1,nlstate);
   fclose(ficrest);  
   fclose(ficpar);      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
            xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/          }
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);          gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {      
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
     exit(0);          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   }        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
   k=0;  
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
       k=k+1;      } /* End theta */
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");  
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)      trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
              for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;  
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
     }        varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
  }      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
   fclose(ficresvpl);      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/  
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);      fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);        fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
        free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
        free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);      free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);      free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    } /* End age */
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);  
      free_vector(xp,1,npar);
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);  
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);  }
   
   if(erreur >0)  /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
     printf("End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
   else   printf("End of Imach\n");  {
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */    int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
      int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/    int k=0,l, cptcode;
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/    int first=1, first1, first2;
   /*------ End -----------*/    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double *xp;
  end:    double *gp, *gm;
 #ifdef windows    double **gradg, **trgradg;
   /* chdir(pathcd);*/    double **mu;
 #endif    double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
  /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
  /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/    int theta;
  /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
  /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
  strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
  strcat(plotcmd," ");    double ***varpij;
  strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);  
  system(plotcmd);    strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
     strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
 #ifdef windows    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
   while (z[0] != 'q') {      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
     /* chdir(path); */      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");    }
     scanf("%s",z);    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
     else if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
     else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
   }    }
 #endif    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
 }    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
     if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     }
     printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     pstamp(ficresprob);
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
     fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
   
   
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
       }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
    */
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
     varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
     first=1;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
     file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
   and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
    They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
   It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
   would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
   standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
    Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
    and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
   To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
   
     cov[1]=1;
     /* tj=cptcoveff; */
     tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
     if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     j1=0;
     for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){
       /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ */
       /*j1++;*/
         if  (cptcovn>0) {
           fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
           
           fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
           
           
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
           
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
         }
         
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
           cov[2]=age;
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
             cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];/* j1 1 2 3 4
                                                            * 1  1 1 1 1
                                                            * 2  2 1 1 1
                                                            * 3  1 2 1 1
                                                            */
             /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
           }
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
             cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
           
       
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
             
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
             
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
       
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
        
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
               gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
           }
   
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
             for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
               trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
           
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
   
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
           
           k=0;
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
               k=k+1;
               mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
             }
           }
           for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
               varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   
           /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
             for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             }*/
   
           fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
           }
           i=0;
           for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
             for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
               i++;
               fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                 /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
                 fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
                 fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
             }
           }/* end of loop for state */
         } /* end of loop for age */
         free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         
         /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
         /*
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
         */
   
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
         first1=1;first2=2;
         for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
           for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
             if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
             for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
               for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
                 if(l1==k1) continue;
                 i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                 if(i<=j) continue;
                 for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   if ((int)age %5==0){
                     v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
                     mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
                     c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                     /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
                       if(first2==1){
                         first1=0;
                       printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
                       }
                       fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
                       /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
                       /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
                     }
   
                     /* Eigen vectors */
                     v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                     /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                     v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
                     v12=-v21;
                     v22=v11;
                     tnalp=v21/v11;
                     if(first1==1){
                       first1=0;
                       printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
                     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
                     /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
                     /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                     if(first==1){
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240");
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
    :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
   %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }else{
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }/* if first */
                   } /* age mod 5 */
                 } /* end loop age */
                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
               } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
           } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
         /* } /* loop covariates */
     }
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fclose(ficresprob);
     fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtmcov);
   }
   
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                     int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                     double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                     double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
     int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
      <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
   </ul>");
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
    - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
              jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
              stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Population projections by age and states: \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileres,"f"),subdirf2(fileres,"f"));
   
   fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d_1.png\">%s%d_1.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d_2.png\">%s%d_2.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
          /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
          for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
            fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Convergence from each state (1 to %d) to period (stable) prevalence in state %d <a href=\"%s%d_%d.png\">%s%d_%d.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_%d.png\">",nlstate, cpt, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
          }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a> <br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), e<sup>ij</sup> are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.png <br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d_%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
   true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
    drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
    observed and cahotic prevalences: %s%d.png<br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m0,cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
     int ng=0;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'vpl' files\n");
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
       for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d_%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else        fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      }
     }
     /*2 eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small size 320, 240\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
       
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
         k=2*i;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
       }
     }
     
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
         k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
           /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
           
         } 
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
       }
     }
     
     /* CV preval stable (period) */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
           if(i==1)
             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
           else
             fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
           fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
           for (j=1; j<= (nlstate-1) ; j ++)
             fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j);
           fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
         } /* nlstate */
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
       } /* end cpt state*/ 
     } /* end covariate */  
     
     /* proba elementaires */
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
             fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
      }
     /*goto avoid;*/
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                else
                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                  /* if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) { /\* Bug valgrind *\/ */
                  /*        /\*fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);*\/ */
                  /*        ij++; */
                  /* } */
                  /* else */
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                    /* if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) { */
                    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]); */
                    /*   ij++; */
                    /* } */
                    /* else */
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
    avoid:
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     int *popage;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz(double x[])
   { 
     double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
   
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           L=L+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
    
     return -2*L*num/sump;
   }
   
   #ifdef GSL
   /******************* Gompertz_f Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz_f(const gsl_vector *v, void *params)
   { 
     double A,B,LL=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     double *x= (double *) v->data;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf\n",x[0],x[1]);
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[0]/YEARM)+x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           LL=LL+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf -2*LL*num/sump=%lf\n",x[0],x[1],-2*LL*num/sump);
    
     return -2*LL*num/sump;
   }
   #endif
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
     int i,k;
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
     fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
     for (i=1;i<=2;i++) 
       fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
     fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
   
    for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
      fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
    
     fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
     int ng;
   
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
   
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
     fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small size 320, 240\n set log y\n"); 
     /* fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n"); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
   
   } 
   
   int readdata(char datafile[], int firstobs, int lastobs, int *imax)
   {
   
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     FILE *fic;
     char dummy[]="                         ";
     int i, j, n;
     int linei, month, year,iout;
     char line[MAXLINE], linetmp[MAXLINE];
     char stra[80], strb[80];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
   
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
     }
   
     i=1;
     linei=0;
     while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
       linei=linei+1;
       for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
         if(line[j] == '\t')
           line[j] = ' ';
       }
       for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
         ;
       };
       line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
       if(line[0]=='#'){
         fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         continue;
       }
       trimbb(linetmp,line); /* Trims multiple blanks in line */
       for (j=0; line[j]!='\0';j++){
         line[j]=linetmp[j];
       }
     
   
       for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb, line, ' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
         /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         s[j][i]=lval;
         
         strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
         }
         else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
           month=99;
           year=9999;
         }else{
           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         anint[j][i]= (double) year; 
         mint[j][i]= (double)month; 
         strcpy(line,stra);
       } /* ENd Waves */
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
       }
       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       andc[i]=(double) year; 
       moisdc[i]=(double) month; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
       }
       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.", dummy) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       if (year==9999) {
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
   
       }
       annais[i]=(double)(year);
       moisnais[i]=(double)(month); 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       errno=0;
       dval=strtod(strb,&endptr); 
       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
         printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       weight[i]=dval; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
           printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
         strcpy(line,stra);
       }  
       lstra=strlen(stra);
        
       if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
         stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
         num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
       }
       else
         num[i]=atol(stra);
       /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
         printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
       
       i=i+1;
     } /* End loop reading  data */
   
     *imax=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
     fclose(fic);
    
     return (0);
     endread:
       printf("Exiting readdata: ");
       fclose(fic);
       return (1);
   
   
   
   }
   void removespace(char *str) {
     char *p1 = str, *p2 = str;
     do
       while (*p2 == ' ')
         p2++;
     while (*p1++ = *p2++);
   }
   
   int decodemodel ( char model[], int lastobs) /**< This routine decode the model and returns:
      * Model  V1+V2+V3+V8+V7*V8+V5*V6+V8*age+V3*age
      * - cptcovt total number of covariates of the model nbocc(+)+1 = 8
      * - cptcovn or number of covariates k of the models excluding age*products =6
      * - cptcovage number of covariates with age*products =2
      * - cptcovs number of simple covariates
      * - Tvar[k] is the id of the kth covariate Tvar[1]@12 {1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 8, 3, 7, 8, 5, 6}, thus Tvar[5=V7*V8]=10
      *     which is a new column after the 9 (ncovcol) variables. 
      * - if k is a product Vn*Vm covar[k][i] is filled with correct values for each individual
      * - Tprod[l] gives the kth covariates of the product Vn*Vm l=1 to cptcovprod-cptcovage
      *    Tprod[1]@2 {5, 6}: position of first product V7*V8 is 5, and second V5*V6 is 6.
      * - Tvard[k]  p Tvard[1][1]@4 {7, 8, 5, 6} for V7*V8 and V5*V6 .
    */
   {
     int i, j, k, ks;
     int i1, j1, k1, k2;
     char modelsav[80];
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80];
   
     /*removespace(model);*/
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=0, k2=-1, ks=0, cptcovn=0;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /**< j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /**< j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovs=j+1-j1; /**<  Number of simple covariates V1+V2*age+V3 +V3*V4=> V1 + V3 =2  */
       cptcovt= j+1; /* Number of total covariates in the model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4=> 4*/
                     /* including age products which are counted in cptcovage.
                     /* but the covariates which are products must be treated separately: ncovn=4- 2=2 (V1+V3). */
       cptcovprod=j1; /**< Number of products  V1*V2 +v3*age = 2 */
       cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age: V3*V4 =1  */
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if (strstr(model,"AGE") !=0){
         printf("Error. AGE must be in lower case 'age' model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. AGE must be in lower case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       if (strstr(model,"v") !=0){
         printf("Error. 'v' must be in upper case 'V' model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. 'v' must be in upper case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       
       /*   Design
        *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9 Weight
        *  <          ncovcol=8                >
        * Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8
        *   k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8
        *  cptcovn number of covariates (not including constant and age ) = # of + plus 1 = 7+1=8
        *  covar[k,i], value of kth covariate if not including age for individual i:
        *       covar[1][i]= (V2), covar[4][i]=(V3), covar[8][i]=(V8)
        *  Tvar[k] # of the kth covariate:  Tvar[1]=2  Tvar[4]=3 Tvar[8]=8
        *       if multiplied by age: V3*age Tvar[3=V3*age]=3 (V3) Tvar[7]=8 and 
        *  Tage[++cptcovage]=k
        *       if products, new covar are created after ncovcol with k1
        *  Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; # of the kth covariate product:  Tvar[5]=ncovcol+1=10  Tvar[6]=ncovcol+1=11
        *  Tprod[k1]=k; Tprod[1]=5 Tprod[2]= 6; gives the position of the k1th product
        *  Tvard[k1][1]=m Tvard[k1][2]=m; Tvard[1][1]=5 (V5) Tvard[1][2]=6 Tvard[2][1]=7 (V7) Tvard[2][2]=8
        *  Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
        *  Tvar[8+1]=5;Tvar[8+2]=6;Tvar[8+3]=7;Tvar[8+4]=8 inverted
        *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9  V10  V11
        *  <          ncovcol=8                >
        *       Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8    d1   d1   d2  d2
        *          k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8    9   10   11  12
        *     Tvar[k]= 2    1      3       3    10      11      8        8    5    6    7   8
        * p Tvar[1]@12={2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
        * p Tprod[1]@2={                         6, 5}
        *p Tvard[1][1]@4= {7, 8, 5, 6}
        * covar[k][i]= V2   V1      ?      V3    V5*V6?   V7*V8?  ?       V8   
        *  cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
        *How to reorganize?
        * Model V1 + V2 + V3 + V8 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V3*age + V8*age
        * Tvars {2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
        *       {2,   1,     4,      8,    5,      6,     3,       7}
        * Struct []
        */
   
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
       /* j is the number of + signs in the model V1+V2+V3 j=2 i=3 to 1 */
       /*   modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4  */
       /*  k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tage[cptcovage=1]=4 */
       /*  k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4) */
       /*  k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1) */
       /*  k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2) */
       /*  k=5 Tvar[5] */
       /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) { */
       /*  cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]]; */
       /*  } */
       /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
       /*
        * Treating invertedly V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is as if written V2*V4 +V3*age + V1 + V2 */
       for(k=cptcovt; k>=1;k--) /**< Number of covariates */
           Tvar[k]=0;
       cptcovage=0;
       for(k=1; k<=cptcovt;k++){ /* Loop on total covariates of the model */
         cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+' 
                                        modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
           cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc  Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
             /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);  /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2 */
             cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
             Tage[cptcovage]=k;  /* Tage[1] = 4 */
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=k;
           } else {  /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2  strb=V3*V2*/
             /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
             cptcovn++;
             cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
             Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
                                     because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
                                     ncovcol + k1
                                     If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
                                     Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
             cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=k;  /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2  */
             Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
             Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
             k2=k2+2;
             Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
             Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];  /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
             for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
               /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
                  covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
               covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
             }
           } /* End age is not in the model */
         } /* End if model includes a product */
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
           cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
           ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
           cptcovn++;
           Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);*/
   
   
     return (0); /* with covar[new additional covariate if product] and Tage if age */ 
     endread:
       printf("Exiting decodemodel: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
   {
     int i, m;
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           *nberr++;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           *nberr++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0)
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] < *agemin){ 
               *agemin=agev[m][i];
               printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemin);
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >*agemax){
               *agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" Max anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           *nberr++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           return 1;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax); 
   
     return (0);
     endread:
       printf("Exiting calandcheckages: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
   #ifdef GSL
     const gsl_multimin_fminimizer_type *T;
     size_t iteri = 0, it;
     int rval = GSL_CONTINUE;
     int status = GSL_SUCCESS;
     double ssval;
   #endif
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
     int linei, month, year,iout;
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
     int NDIM=2;
     int vpopbased=0;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     struct stat info;
     double agedeb, agefin,hf;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double **xi,tmp,delta;
   
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int *indx;
     char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE]; 
     char **bp, *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
     int c,  h , cpt,l;
     int ju,jl, mi;
     int i1,j1, jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
     int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,*tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     int agemortsup;
     float  sumlpop=0.;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
     double kk1, kk2;
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
     double **ximort;
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
     int *dcwave;
   
     char z[1]="c", occ;
   
     /*char  *strt;*/
     char strtend[80];
   
     long total_usecs;
    
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     rstart_time = time(NULL);  
     /*  (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);*/
     start_time = *localtime(&rstart_time);
     curr_time=start_time;
     /*tml = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec);*/
     /* strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tml)); */
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&start_time));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tm_sec = tp.tm_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tm_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]==' ') /* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
      for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
         printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
         while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
         printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
         strcpy (pathtot, val);
         if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
       }
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
     split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
    /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
     /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
       printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname='%s'\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fflush(ficlog);
       /* goto end; */
       exit(70); 
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       fputs(line,stdout);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       fputs(line, stdout);
       //puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
     /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
        v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
     */
     if (strlen(model)>1) 
       ncovmodel=2+nbocc(model,'+')+1; /*Number of variables including intercept and age = cptcovn + intercept + age : v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes 5+2=7*/
     else
       ncovmodel=2;
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
     nforce= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate; /* Number of forces ij from state i to j */
     npar= nforce*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters like aij*/
     if(npar >MAXPARM || nlstate >NLSTATEMAX || ndeath >NDEATHMAX || ncovmodel>NCOVMAX){
       printf("Too complex model for current IMaCh: npar=(nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel=%d >= %d(MAXPARM) or nlstate=%d >= %d(NLSTATEMAX) or ndeath=%d >= %d(NDEATHMAX) or ncovmodel=(k+age+#of+signs)=%d(NCOVMAX) >= %d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Too complex model for current IMaCh: %d >=%d(MAXPARM) or %d >=%d(NLSTATEMAX) or %d >=%d(NDEATHMAX) or %d(NCOVMAX) >=%d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fflush(stdout);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     delti=delti3[1][1];
     /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
       exit(0);
     }
     else if(mle==-3) {
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     }
     else{
       /* Read guessed parameters */
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         j=0;
         for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           if(jj==i) continue;
           j++;
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
   It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
   run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           if(mle==1)
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
             if(mle==1){
               printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             }
             else
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           if(mle==1)
             printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         }
       }  
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads scales values */
       p=param[1][1];
       
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
             printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
       }
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads covariance matrix */
       delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
       /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;
         
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%s",str);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%s",str);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
         for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           }
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       
       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
       strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
       strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
       if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
     }    /* End of mle != -3 */
   
   
     n= lastobs;
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n); /* s[i][j] health state for wave i and individual j */ 
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Number of code per covariate; if O and 1 only, 2**ncov; V1+V2+V3+V4=>16 */
   
     /* Reads data from file datafile */
     if (readdata(datafile, firstobs, lastobs, &imx)==1)
       goto end;
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
       /*    modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4 
           k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tag[cptcovage=1]=4
           k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4)
           k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1)
           k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2)
       */
     Tvar=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Was 15 changed to NCOVMAX. */
     /*  V2+V1+V4+age*V3 is a model with 4 covariates (3 plus signs). 
         For each model-covariate stores the data-covariate id. Tvar[1]=2, Tvar[2]=1, Tvar[3]=4, 
         Tvar[4=age*V3] is 3 and 'age' is recorded in Tage.
     */
     /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
       because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
       ncovcol + k1
       If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
       Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 etc */
     Tprod=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the position of a product */
     /* Tprod[k1=1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
        if  V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2   TProd[k1=2]=5 (V3*V2)
     */
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Unclear */
     Tvard=imatrix(1,NCOVMAX,1,2); /* n=Tvard[k1][1]  and m=Tvard[k1][2] gives the couple n,m of the k1 th product Vn*Vm
                               * For V3*V2 (in V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2), V3*V2 position is 2nd. 
                               * Tvard[k1=2][1]=3 (V3) Tvard[k1=2][2]=2(V2) */
     Tage=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the covariate id of covariates associated with age: V2 + V1 + age*V4 + V3*age
                            4 covariates (3 plus signs)
                            Tage[1=V3*age]= 4; Tage[2=age*V4] = 3
                         */  
   
     if(decodemodel(model, lastobs) == 1)
       goto end;
   
     if((double)(lastobs-imx)/(double)imx > 1.10){
       nbwarn++;
       printf("Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
     }
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights. We can have weights different from 1 but want no weight*/
       for(i=1;i<=imx;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* changed to imx */
     }
   
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     if(calandcheckages(imx, maxwav, &agemin, &agemax, &nberr, &nbwarn) == 1)
       goto end;
   
   
     agegomp=(int)agemin;
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
     /* */
     
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
     /* */
    
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     Ndum =ivector(-1,NCOVMAX);  
     if (ncovmodel > 2)
       tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
   
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) */
     /*printf(" codtab[1,1],codtab[100,10]=%d,%d\n", codtab[1][1],codtab[100][10]);*/
     h=0;
   
   
     /*if (cptcovn > 0) */
         
    
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /* scans any effective covariate */
       for(i=1; i <=pow(2,cptcoveff-k);i++){ /* i=1 to 8/1=8; i=1 to 8/2=4; i=1 to 8/8=1 */ 
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){ /* For each modality of this covariate ncodemax=2*/
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=pow(2,k-1); cpt++){  /* cpt=1 to 8/2**(3+1-1 or 3+1-3) =1 or 4 */ 
             h++;
             if (h>m) 
               h=1;
             /**< codtab(h,k)  k   = codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) + 1
              *     h     1     2     3     4
              *______________________________  
              *     1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1
              *     2     2     1     1     1
              *     3 i=2 1     2     1     1
              *     4     2     2     1     1
              *     5 i=3 1 i=2 1     2     1
              *     6     2     1     2     1
              *     7 i=4 1     2     2     1
              *     8     2     2     2     1
              *     9 i=5 1 i=3 1 i=2 1     1
              *    10     2     1     1     1
              *    11 i=6 1     2     1     1
              *    12     2     2     1     1
              *    13 i=7 1 i=4 1     2     1    
              *    14     2     1     2     1
              *    15 i=8 1     2     2     1
              *    16     2     2     2     1
              */
             codtab[h][k]=j;
             /*codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;*/
             printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d Tvar[k]=%d codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k],codtab[h][Tvar[k]]);
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
          printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
   
    free_ivector(Ndum,-1,NCOVMAX);
   
   
       
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
   
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       //fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
       fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);
       exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
   
     if (mle==-3){
       ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); 
   /*     ximort=gsl_matrix_alloc(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); */
       cens=ivector(1,n);
       ageexmed=vector(1,n);
       agecens=vector(1,n);
       dcwave=ivector(1,n);
    
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         dcwave[i]=-1;
         for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
           if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
             dcwave[i]=m;
             /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
             break;
           }
       }
   
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
         if (wav[i]>0){
           ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
           j=wav[i];
           agecens[i]=1.; 
   
           if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
             agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
             cens[i]= 1;
           }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1) 
             cens[i]= -1;
           if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
             cens[i]=0 ;
         }
         else cens[i]=-1;
       }
       
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
       
       /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
       /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
       
       
   #ifdef GSL
       printf("GSL optimization\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #elsedef
       printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #endif
       strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort"); 
       strcat(filerespow,fileres);
       if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       }
   #ifdef GSL
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# GSL optimization\n# iter -2*LL");
   #elsedef
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
   #endif
       /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
       */
       fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
   #ifdef GSL
       /* gsl starts here */ 
       T = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_nmsimplex;
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer *sfm = NULL;
       gsl_vector *ss, *x;
       gsl_multimin_function minex_func;
   
       /* Initial vertex size vector */
       ss = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (ss == NULL){
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for ss", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
       /* Set all step sizes to 1 */
       gsl_vector_set_all (ss, 0.001);
   
       /* Starting point */
       
       x = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (x == NULL){
         gsl_vector_free(ss);
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for x", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
     
       /* Initialize method and iterate */
       /*     p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083; */
   /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 0, 0.0268); */
   /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 1, 0.083); */
       gsl_vector_set(x, 0, p[1]);
       gsl_vector_set(x, 1, p[2]);
   
       minex_func.f = &gompertz_f;
       minex_func.n = NDIM;
       minex_func.params = (void *)&p; /* ??? */
       
       sfm = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_alloc (T, NDIM);
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_set (sfm, &minex_func, x, ss);
       
       printf("Iterations beginning .....\n\n");
       printf("Iter. #    Intercept       Slope     -Log Likelihood     Simplex size\n");
   
       iteri=0;
       while (rval == GSL_CONTINUE){
         iteri++;
         status = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_iterate(sfm);
         
         if (status) printf("error: %s\n", gsl_strerror (status));
         fflush(0);
         
         if (status) 
           break;
         
         rval = gsl_multimin_test_size (gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm), 1e-6);
         ssval = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm);
         
         if (rval == GSL_SUCCESS)
           printf ("converged to a local maximum at\n");
         
         printf("%5d ", iteri);
         for (it = 0; it < NDIM; it++){
           printf ("%10.5f ", gsl_vector_get (sfm->x, it));
         }
         printf("f() = %-10.5f ssize = %.7f\n", sfm->fval, ssval);
       }
       
       printf("\n\n Please note: Program should be run many times with varying starting points to detemine global maximum\n\n");
       
       gsl_vector_free(x); /* initial values */
       gsl_vector_free(ss); /* inital step size */
       for (it=0; it<NDIM; it++){
         p[it+1]=gsl_vector_get(sfm->x,it);
         fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[it]);
       }
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_free (sfm); /* p *(sfm.x.data) et p *(sfm.x.data+1)  */
   #endif
   #ifdef POWELL
        powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
   #endif  
       fclose(ficrespow);
       
       hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz); 
   
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){ 
           printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         printf("\n ");
       }
       
       printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) 
         printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
   
       lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
         agemortsup=k;
         if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
       }
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
         lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
         lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
         sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
       }
       
       tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
         /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
         tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
       }
       
       
       printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
         printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
       
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                        stepm, weightopt,\
                        model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
       
       free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
   #ifdef GSL
       free_ivector(cens,1,n);
       free_vector(agecens,1,n);
       free_ivector(dcwave,1,n);
       free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
   #endif
     } /* Endof if mle==-3 */
     
     else{ /* For mle >=1 */
       globpr=0;/* debug */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
         mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
       }
       
       /*--------- results files --------------*/
       fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
       
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
           if (k != i) {
             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
               printf("%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               jk++; 
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       if(mle!=0){
         /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
         ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
         hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if (j!=i) {
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       if(mle>=1)
         printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
       /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
       /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
       /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
       
       
       /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
          even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
       */
       for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
         jj=0;
         for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
             if(j==i) continue;
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               jj++;
               ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
               if(itimes==1){
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }else{
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }
               ll=0;
               for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                 for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   if(lj==li) continue;
                   for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                     ll++;
                     if(ll<=jj){
                       cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                       if(ll<jj){
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }else{
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }
                     }
                   } /* end lk */
                 } /* end lj */
               } /* end li */
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               fprintf(ficres,"\n");
               numlinepar++;
             } /* end k*/
           } /*end j */
         } /* end i */
       } /* end itimes */
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       fflush(ficres);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       estepm=0;
       fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
       if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
       if (fage <= 2) {
         bage = ageminpar;
         fage = agemaxpar;
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
       fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
       fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       
       dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
       dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
       fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
       
       
       
        /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
       /* ,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2); */
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                    model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                    jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
         
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
    
       free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
       free_lvector(num,1,n);
       free_vector(agedc,1,n);
       /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       fclose(ficparo);
       fclose(ficres);
   
   
       /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
   #include "prevlim.h"  /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
       fclose(ficrespl);
   
   #ifdef FREEEXIT2
   #include "freeexit2.h"
   #endif
   
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
   #include "hpijx.h"
       fclose(ficrespij);
   
     /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
       k=1;
       varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
   
   
       probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
           for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
             probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
       /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
       /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
         /*      }  */
         /*      else{ */
         /*        erreur=108; */
         /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*      } */
       }
     
   
       /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
   
       prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
           ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       */
   
       if (mobilav!=0) {
         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
         if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
           fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
           printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         }
       }
   
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies, no variances ------------*/
   
       strcpy(filerese,"e");
       strcat(filerese,fileres);
       if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);  
         
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
       fclose(ficreseij);
   
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
   
       strcpy(filerest,"t");
       strcat(filerest,fileres);
       if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
       strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
       strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
       if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
   
       strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
       strcat(filerescve,fileres);
       if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
   
       strcpy(fileresv,"v");
       strcat(fileresv,fileres);
       if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);  
           /*
            */
           /* goto endfree; */
    
           vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           pstamp(ficrest);
   
   
           for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* Segmentation fault */
             varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart);
             fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
             if(vpopbased==1)
               fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
             else
               fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
             fprintf(ficrest,"# Age e.. (std) ");
             for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
             epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
             for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
               prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
               if (vpopbased==1) {
                 if(mobilav ==0){
                   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                     prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
                 }else{ /* mobilav */ 
                   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                     prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
                 }
               }
           
               fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
               for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
                 for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                   epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                   /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
                 }
                 epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
               }
   
               for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
                 for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                   vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
                 fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
               fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
             }
           }
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
         /*}*/
       }
       free_vector(weight,1,n);
       free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
       free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
       free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_ivector(cod,1,n);
       free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
       fclose(ficresstdeij);
       fclose(ficrescveij);
       fclose(ficresvij);
       fclose(ficrest);
       fclose(ficpar);
     
       /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/   
   
       strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
       strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
       if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
         exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
           varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
           free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
   
       fclose(ficresvpl);
   
       /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
       if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
    endfree:
       free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
       free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
       free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
       /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
       free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
   
       free_ivector(ncodemax,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvar,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tprod,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tage,1,NCOVMAX);
   
       free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
       free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10);
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     /*(void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);*/
     rend_time = time(NULL);  
     end_time = *localtime(&rend_time);
     /* tml = *localtime(&end_time.tm_sec); */
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&end_time));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
   
      printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
      if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
       printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
     if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
       printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
     sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
   #ifdef _WIN32
     sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
   #endif
     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
       printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
         printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #ifdef __unix
       strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
       if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #endif
     }else
       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
     
     sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
   
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf("gnuplot command might not be in your path: %s, err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
       printf("\n Trying if gnuplot resides on the same directory that IMaCh\n");
       sprintf(plotcmd,"%sgnuplot %s", pathimach, optionfilegnuplot);
       if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0)
         printf("\n Still a problem with gnuplot command %s, err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
     }
     printf(" Successul, please wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit results with your browser, g to graph again and q for exit: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') {
   #ifdef _APPLE_
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #elif __linux
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "xdg-open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #else
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "%s", optionfilehtm);
   #endif
         printf("Starting browser with: %s",pplotcmd);fflush(stdout);
         system(pplotcmd);
       }
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }
   
   
   

Removed from v.1.43  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.157


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