--- imach/src/imach.c 2015/12/18 17:32:11 1.216 +++ imach/src/imach.c 2015/12/23 17:18:31 1.217 @@ -1,6 +1,9 @@ -/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.216 2015/12/18 17:32:11 brouard Exp $ +/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.217 2015/12/23 17:18:31 brouard Exp $ $State: Exp $ $Log: imach.c,v $ + Revision 1.217 2015/12/23 17:18:31 brouard + Summary: Experimental backcast + Revision 1.216 2015/12/18 17:32:11 brouard Summary: 0.98r4 Warning and status=-2 @@ -800,12 +803,12 @@ typedef struct { #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\' #endif -/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.216 2015/12/18 17:32:11 brouard Exp $ */ +/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.217 2015/12/23 17:18:31 brouard Exp $ */ /* $State: Exp $ */ #include "version.h" char version[]=__IMACH_VERSION__; char copyright[]="October 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015"; -char fullversion[]="$Revision: 1.216 $ $Date: 2015/12/18 17:32:11 $"; +char fullversion[]="$Revision: 1.217 $ $Date: 2015/12/23 17:18:31 $"; char strstart[80]; char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH]; int erreur=0, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings */ @@ -841,7 +844,7 @@ double **matprod2(); /* test */ double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */ double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */ /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */ -FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficresphtm, *ficresphtmfr, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop; +FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficresphtm, *ficresphtmfr, *ficrespl, *ficresplb,*ficrespij, *ficrespijb, *ficrest,*ficresf, *ficresfb,*ficrespop; FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow; int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */ double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */ @@ -864,13 +867,13 @@ char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH]; FILE *ficresvpl; char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH]; char title[MAXLINE]; -char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH]; +char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresplb[FILENAMELENGTH]; char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH]; char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH], tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; char command[FILENAMELENGTH]; int outcmd=0; -char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH]; +char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespijb[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH]; char fileresu[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* fileres without r in front */ char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */ char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH]; @@ -2141,6 +2144,123 @@ Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl return prlim; /* should not reach here */ } + + /**** Back Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence) ****************/ + +double **bprevalim(double **bprlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij) +{ + /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit + matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached with precision ftolpl */ + /* Wx= Wx-1 Px-1= Wx-2 Px-2 Px-1 = Wx-n Px-n ... Px-2 Px-1 I */ + /* Wx is row vector: population in state 1, population in state 2, population dead */ + /* or prevalence in state 1, prevalence in state 2, 0 */ + /* newm is the matrix after multiplications, its rows are identical at a factor */ + /* Initial matrix pimij */ + /* {0.85204250825084937, 0.13044499163996345, 0.017512500109187184, */ + /* 0.090851990222114765, 0.88271245433047185, 0.026435555447413338, */ + /* 0, 0 , 1} */ + /* + * and after some iteration: */ + /* {0.45504275246439968, 0.42731458730878791, 0.11764266022681241, */ + /* 0.45201005341706885, 0.42865420071559901, 0.11933574586733192, */ + /* 0, 0 , 1} */ + /* And prevalence by suppressing the deaths are close to identical rows in prlim: */ + /* {0.51571254859325999, 0.4842874514067399, */ + /* 0.51326036147820708, 0.48673963852179264} */ + /* If we start from prlim again, prlim tends to a constant matrix */ + + int i, ii,j,k; + double *min, *max, *meandiff, maxmax,sumnew=0.; + /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */ + double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **bmij(); + double **newm; + double agefin, delaymax=200. ; /* 100 Max number of years to converge */ + int ncvloop=0; + + min=vector(1,nlstate); + max=vector(1,nlstate); + meandiff=vector(1,nlstate); + + for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++) + for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ + oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0); + } + + cov[1]=1.; + + /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */ + /* Start at agefin= age, computes the matrix of passage and loops decreasing agefin until convergence is reached */ + for(agefin=age+stepm/YEARM; agefin<=age+delaymax; agefin=agefin+stepm/YEARM){ + ncvloop++; + newm=savm; + /* Covariates have to be included here again */ + cov[2]=agefin; + if(nagesqr==1) + cov[3]= agefin*agefin;; + for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) { + /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */ + cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)]; + /* printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]); */ + } + /*wrong? for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */ + /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]*cov[2]; */ + for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2]; + for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless */ + /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */ + cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)]; + + /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/ + /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/ + /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/ + /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */ + /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */ + out=matprod2(newm, oldm ,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); /* Bug Valgrind */ + + savm=oldm; + oldm=newm; + + for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){ + max[j]=0.; + min[j]=1.; + } + /* sumnew=0; */ + /* for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k]; */ + for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){ + for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){ + /* bprlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew); */ + bprlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]; + max[i]=FMAX(max[i],bprlim[i][j]); + min[i]=FMIN(min[i],bprlim[i][j]); + } + } + + maxmax=0.; + for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){ + meandiff[i]=(max[i]-min[i])/(max[i]+min[i])*2.; /* mean difference for each column */ + maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,meandiff[i]); + /* printf("Back age= %d meandiff[%d]=%f, agefin=%d max[%d]=%f min[%d]=%f maxmax=%f\n", (int)age, i, meandiff[i],(int)agefin, i, max[i], i, min[i],maxmax); */ + } /* j loop */ + *ncvyear= -( (int)age- (int)agefin); + /* printf("Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */ + if(maxmax < ftolpl){ + printf("OK Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); + free_vector(min,1,nlstate); + free_vector(max,1,nlstate); + free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate); + return bprlim; + } + } /* age loop */ + /* After some age loop it doesn't converge */ + printf("Warning: the back stable prevalence at age %d did not converge with the required precision (%g > ftolpl=%g) within %.0f years. Try to lower 'ftolpl'. \n\ +Oldest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%d, ncvyear=%d\n", (int)age, maxmax, ftolpl, delaymax, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, *ncvyear); + /* Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */ + free_vector(min,1,nlstate); + free_vector(max,1,nlstate); + free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate); + + return bprlim; /* should not reach here */ +} + /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate ) @@ -2223,6 +2343,98 @@ double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, return ps; } +/*************** transition probabilities ***************/ + +double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate ) +{ + /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov, + computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the + model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age). + lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc] + and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the + ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula: + j=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel + Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation, + sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij. + Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to + the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij] + */ + double s1, lnpijopii; + /*double t34;*/ + int i,j, nc, ii, jj; + + for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){ + for(j=1; ji s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */ + } + ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */ + } + } + + for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){ + s1=0; + for(j=1; ji} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */ + ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.); + /* Computing other pijs */ + for(j=1; j=lastpass){ if(s[m][i]==-1 && (int) andc[i] == 9999 && (int)anint[m][i] != 9999){ - printf("Information! Unknown health status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m); - fprintf(ficlog,"Information! Unknown status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m); + if(firsthree == 0){ + printf("Information! Unknown health status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m); + fprintf(ficlog,"Information! Unknown status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m); + firsthree=1; + }else{ + fprintf(ficlog,"Information! Unknown status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m); + } mw[++mi][i]=m; } if(s[m][i]==-2){ /* Vital status is really unknown */ @@ -4998,7 +5314,7 @@ To be simple, these graphs help to under void printinghtml(char fileresu[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \ int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\ int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\ - int popforecast, int prevfcast, int estepm , \ + int popforecast, int prevfcast, int backcast, int estepm , \ double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, double dateprev1, \ double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2, double dateprev2){ int jj1, k1, i1, cpt; @@ -5016,9 +5332,15 @@ void printinghtml(char fileresu[], char - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: %s
\n ", stepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_")); fprintf(fichtm,"\ + - Estimated back transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: %s
\n ", + stepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_")); + fprintf(fichtm,"\ - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: %s
\n", subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_")); fprintf(fichtm,"\ + - Period (stable) back prevalence in each health state: %s
\n", + subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_")); + fprintf(fichtm,"\ - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \ %s
\n", estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"E_")); @@ -5070,9 +5392,16 @@ divided by h: hPij } /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */ for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){ - fprintf(fichtm,"
\n- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. %s%d_%d.svg
\ + fprintf(fichtm,"
\n- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. %s_%d-%d.svg
\ ", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1); } + if(backcast==1){ + /* Period (stable) back prevalence in each health state */ + for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){ + fprintf(fichtm,"
\n- Convergence to period (stable) back prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. %s_%d-%d.svg
\ +", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1); + } + } if(prevfcast==1){ /* Projection of prevalence up to period (stable) prevalence in each health state */ for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){ @@ -5360,10 +5689,11 @@ unset log y\n\ plot [%.f:%.f] ", ageminpar, agemaxpar); k=3; for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){ - if(i==1) + if(i==1){ fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_")); - else + }else{ fprintf(ficgp,", '' "); + } l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1; fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l); for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++) @@ -5453,6 +5783,41 @@ plot [%.f:%.f] ", ageminpar, agemaxpar) } /* end cpt state*/ } /* end covariate */ + /* CV back preval stable (period) for each covariate */ + for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate combination (1 to m=2**k), if any covariate is present */ + for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */ + fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV Back preval stable (period): 'pij' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt); + for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /* For each covariate and each value */ + lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */ + /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1 k= (1) 1 1 1 */ + /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1 k= 1 (1) 1 1 */ + /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k= 1 1 (2) 2 */ + vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv]; + fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv); + } + fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n"); + + fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,k1); + fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\ +set ter svg size 640, 480\n\ +unset log y\n\ +plot [%.f:%.f] ", ageminpar, agemaxpar); + k=3; /* Offset */ + for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){ + if(i==1) + fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_")); + else + fprintf(ficgp,", '' "); + l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1; + fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l); /* a vérifier */ + for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++) + fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); + fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt); + } /* nlstate */ + fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n"); + } /* end cpt state*/ + } /* end covariate */ + if(prevfcast==1){ /* Projection from cross-sectional to stable (period) for each covariate */ @@ -5620,40 +5985,49 @@ plot [%.f:%.f] ", ageminpar, agemaxpar) else fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]); } - if(ng != 1){ - fprintf(ficgp,")/(1"); + }else{ + i=i-ncovmodel; + if(ng !=1 ) /* For logit formula of log p11 is more difficult to get */ + fprintf(ficgp," (1."); + } + + if(ng != 1){ + fprintf(ficgp,")/(1"); - for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){ - if(nagesqr==0) - fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1); - else /* nagesqr =1 */ - fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr); - - ij=1; - for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){ - if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */ - if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */ - fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]); - /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */ - ij++; - } + for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){ + if(nagesqr==0) + fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1); + else /* nagesqr =1 */ + fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr); + + ij=1; + for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){ + if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */ + if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */ + fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]); + /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */ + ij++; } - else - fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]); } - fprintf(ficgp,")"); + else + fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]); } fprintf(ficgp,")"); - if(ng ==2) - fprintf(ficgp," t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k); - else /* ng= 3 */ - fprintf(ficgp," t \"i%d%d\" ", k2,k); - }else{ /* end ng <> 1 */ - fprintf(ficgp," t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ", k2,k); } - if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,","); - i=i+ncovmodel; + fprintf(ficgp,")"); + if(ng ==2) + fprintf(ficgp," t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k); + else /* ng= 3 */ + fprintf(ficgp," t \"i%d%d\" ", k2,k); + }else{ /* end ng <> 1 */ + if( k !=k2) /* logit p11 is hard to draw */ + fprintf(ficgp," t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ", k2,k); } + if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath) && ng != 1) + fprintf(ficgp,","); + if (ng == 1 && k!=k2 && (k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) + fprintf(ficgp,","); + i=i+ncovmodel; } /* end k */ } /* end k2 */ fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out\n"); @@ -5788,16 +6162,15 @@ void prevforecast(char fileres[], double fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j); fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j); } - for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { + for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { fprintf(ficresf,"\n"); fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp); - for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); oldm=oldms;savm=savms; - hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k); + hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k); for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){ if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) { @@ -5837,6 +6210,137 @@ void prevforecast(char fileres[], double } +/************** Back Forecasting ******************/ +void prevbackforecast(char fileres[], double anback1, double mback1, double jback1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anback2, double p[], int cptcoveff){ + /* back1, year, month, day of starting backection + agemin, agemax range of age + dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed + anback2 year of en of backection (same day and month as back1). + */ + int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1; + double agec; /* generic age */ + double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean; + double *popeffectif,*popcount; + double ***p3mat; + double ***mobaverage; + char fileresfb[FILENAMELENGTH]; + + agelim=AGESUP; + /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people + in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2). + We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection. + */ + /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ */ + /* firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt, model); */ + prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); + + strcpy(fileresfb,"FB_"); + strcat(fileresfb,fileresu); + if((ficresfb=fopen(fileresfb,"w"))==NULL) { + printf("Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); + fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); + } + printf("Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); + fprintf(ficlog,"Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); + + if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1; + + if (mobilav!=0) { + mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); + if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ + fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); + printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); + } + } + + stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM; + if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1; + if(estepm < stepm){ + printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm); + } + else hstepm=estepm; + + hstepm=hstepm/stepm; + yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp and + fractional in yp1 */ + anprojmean=yp; + yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp); + mprojmean=yp; + yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp); + jprojmean=yp; + if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; + if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; + + i1=cptcoveff; + if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;} + + fprintf(ficresfb,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); + + fprintf(ficresfb,"#****** Routine prevbackforecast **\n"); + +/* if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */ + for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ + for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){ + k=k+1; + fprintf(ficresfb,"\n#****** hbijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#"); + for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) { + fprintf(ficresfb," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + } + fprintf(ficresfb," yearbproj age"); + for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) + fprintf(ficresfb," p%d%d",i,j); + fprintf(ficresfb," p.%d",j); + } + for (yearp=0; yearp>=(anback2-anback1);yearp -=stepsize) { + /* for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { */ + fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); + fprintf(ficresfb,"\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp); + for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ + nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); + nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; + p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); + oldm=oldms;savm=savms; + hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k); + + for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){ + if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) { + fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); + for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) + fprintf(ficresfb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + fprintf(ficresfb,"%.f %.f ",anback1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm); + } + for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { + ppij=0.; + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) { + if (mobilav==1) + ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod]; + else { + ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod]; + } + if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) { + fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]); + } + } /* end i */ + if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) { + fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", ppij); + } + }/* end j */ + } /* end h */ + free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); + } /* end agec */ + } /* end yearp */ + } /* end cptcod */ + } /* end cptcov */ + + if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); + + fclose(ficresfb); + printf("End of Computing Back forecasting \n"); + fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing Back forecasting\n"); + +} + /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/ void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){ @@ -7020,6 +7524,78 @@ void syscompilerinfo(int logged) return 0; } + int back_prevalence_limit(double *p, double **bprlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp){ + /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/ + int i, j, k, i1 ; + /* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */ + double age, agebase, agelim; + double tot; + + strcpy(fileresplb,"PLB_"); + strcat(fileresplb,fileresu); + if((ficresplb=fopen(fileresplb,"w"))==NULL) { + printf("Problem with period (stable) back prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresplb);return 1; + fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) back prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresplb);return 1; + } + printf("Computing period (stable) back prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", fileresplb); + fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) back prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", fileresplb); + pstamp(ficresplb); + fprintf(ficresplb,"# Period (stable) back prevalence. Precision given by ftolpl=%g \n", ftolpl); + fprintf(ficresplb,"#Age "); + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficresplb,"%d-%d ",i,i); + fprintf(ficresplb,"\n"); + + /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */ + + agebase=ageminpar; + agelim=agemaxpar; + + i1=pow(2,cptcoveff); + if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;} + + for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ + /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */ + //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){ + k=k+1; + /* to clean */ + //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtabm(cptcod,cptcov)); + fprintf(ficresplb,"#******"); + printf("#******"); + fprintf(ficlog,"#******"); + for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) { + fprintf(ficresplb," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + } + fprintf(ficresplb,"******\n"); + printf("******\n"); + fprintf(ficlog,"******\n"); + + fprintf(ficresplb,"#Age "); + for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) { + fprintf(ficresplb,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + } + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficresplb," %d-%d ",i,i); + fprintf(ficresplb,"Total Years_to_converge\n"); + + for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){ + /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */ + bprevalim(bprlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); + fprintf(ficresplb,"%.0f ",age ); + for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) + fprintf(ficresplb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + tot=0.; + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){ + tot += bprlim[i][i]; + fprintf(ficresplb," %.5f", bprlim[i][i]); + } + fprintf(ficresplb," %.3f %d\n", tot, *ncvyearp); + } /* Age */ + /* was end of cptcod */ + } /* cptcov */ + return 0; +} + int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){ /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/ @@ -7090,6 +7666,78 @@ int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage) return 0; } + int hBijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){ + /*------------- h Bij x at various ages ------------*/ + + int stepsize; + int agelim; + int hstepm; + int nhstepm; + int h, i, i1, j, k; + + double agedeb; + double ***p3mat; + + strcpy(filerespijb,"PIJB_"); strcat(filerespijb,fileresu); + if((ficrespijb=fopen(filerespijb,"w"))==NULL) { + printf("Problem with Pij back resultfile: %s\n", filerespijb); return 1; + fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij back resultfile: %s\n", filerespijb); return 1; + } + printf("Computing pij back: result on file '%s' \n", filerespijb); + fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij back: result on file '%s' \n", filerespijb); + + stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM; + /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/ + + agelim=AGESUP; + hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */ + hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ + + /* hstepm=1; aff par mois*/ + pstamp(ficrespijb); + fprintf(ficrespijb,"#****** h Pij x Back Probability to be in state i at age x-h being in j at x "); + i1= pow(2,cptcoveff); + /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */ + /* /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */ + /* k=k+1; */ + for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){ + fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n#****** "); + for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) + fprintf(ficrespijb,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); + fprintf(ficrespijb,"******\n"); + + /* for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /\* If stepm=6 months *\/ */ + for (agedeb=bage; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){ /* If stepm=6 months */ + nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ + nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */ + + /* nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/ + + p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); + oldm=oldms;savm=savms; + hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k); + fprintf(ficrespijb,"# Cov Agex agex-h hpijx with i,j="); + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) + for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) + fprintf(ficrespijb," %1d-%1d",i,j); + fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n"); + for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){ + /*agedebphstep = agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm;*/ + fprintf(ficrespijb,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb - h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ); + /* fprintf(ficrespijb,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ); */ + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) + for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) + fprintf(ficrespijb," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]); + fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n"); + } + free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); + fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n"); + } + /*}*/ + } + return 0; +} + /***********************************************/ /**************** Main Program *****************/ @@ -7141,6 +7789,7 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[]) int *tab; int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */ + int backcast=0; int mobilav=0,popforecast=0; int hstepm=0, nhstepm=0; int agemortsup; @@ -7151,6 +7800,7 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[]) double bage=0, fage=110., age, agelim=0., agebase=0.; double ftolpl=FTOL; double **prlim; + double **bprlim; double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */ double *p; double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */ @@ -7162,6 +7812,8 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[]) double *epj, vepp; double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000; + double jback1=1,mback1=1,anback1=2000,jback2=1,mback2=1,anback2=2000; + double **ximort; char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234"; int *dcwave; @@ -8464,6 +9116,19 @@ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj); /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/ + while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){ + ungetc(c,ficpar); + fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar); + fputs(line,stdout); + fputs(line,ficparo); + } + ungetc(c,ficpar); + + fscanf(ficpar,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj); + fscanf(ficparo,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj); + fscanf(ficlog,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj); + fscanf(ficres,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj); + /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/ /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */ @@ -8481,7 +9146,7 @@ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, prevfcast, pathc,p); printinghtml(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\ - model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,prevfcast,estepm, \ + model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,prevfcast,backcast, estepm, \ jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,dateprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2,dateprev2); /*------------ free_vector -------------*/ @@ -8508,6 +9173,13 @@ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct prevalence_limit(p, prlim, ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear); fclose(ficrespl); + /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/ + /*#include "prevlim.h"*/ /* Use ficresplb, ficlog */ + bprlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate); + back_prevalence_limit(p, bprlim, ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear); + fclose(ficresplb); + + #ifdef FREEEXIT2 #include "freeexit2.h" #endif @@ -8517,6 +9189,9 @@ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct hPijx(p, bage, fage); fclose(ficrespij); + hBijx(p, bage, fage); + fclose(ficrespijb); + /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/ k=1; varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart); @@ -8533,14 +9208,18 @@ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct if(prevfcast==1){ /* if(stepm ==1){*/ prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff); - /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/ - /* } */ - /* else{ */ - /* erreur=108; */ - /* printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */ - /* fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */ - /* } */ } + if(backcast==1){ + prevbackforecast(fileresu, anback1, mback1, jback1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anback2, p, cptcoveff); + } + /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/ + /* } */ + /* else{ */ + /* erreur=108; */ + /* printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */ + /* fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */ + /* } */ + /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */