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Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.264 and 1.271

-version 1.264, 2017/04/26 06:01:29
+version 1.271, 2017/06/27 10:17:50
  Line 1
  /* $Id$
    $State$
    $Log$
+   Revision 1.271  2017/06/27 10:17:50  brouard
+   Summary: Some bug with rint
+   Revision 1.270  2017/05/24 05:45:29  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.269  2017/05/23 08:39:25  brouard
+   Summary: Code into subroutine, cleanings
+   Revision 1.268  2017/05/18 20:09:32  brouard
+   Summary: backprojection and confidence intervals of backprevalence
+   Revision 1.267  2017/05/13 10:25:05  brouard
+   Summary: temporary save for backprojection
+   Revision 1.266  2017/05/13 07:26:12  brouard
+   Summary: Version 0.99r13 (improvements and bugs fixed)
+   Revision 1.265  2017/04/26 16:22:11  brouard
+   Summary: imach 0.99r13 Some bugs fixed
    Revision 1.264  2017/04/26 06:01:29  brouard
    Summary: Labels in graphs
- Line 812  Back prevalence and projections:
+ Line 833  Back prevalence and projections:
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-    - hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+    - hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k, nres);
       Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
- Line 980  typedef struct {
+ Line 1001  typedef struct {
  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
  /* #define AGESUP 130 */
  #define AGESUP 150
+ #define AGEINF 0
  #define AGEMARGE 25 /* Marge for agemin and agemax for(iage=agemin-AGEMARGE; iage <= agemax+3+AGEMARGE; iage++) */
  #define AGEBASE 40
  #define AGEOVERFLOW 1.e20
- Line 1071  FILE *ficrescveij;
+ Line 1093  FILE *ficrescveij;
  char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
  FILE  *ficresvij;
  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
- FILE  *ficresvpl;
- char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char title[MAXLINE];
  char model[MAXLINE]; /**< The model line */
  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH],  fileresplb[FILENAMELENGTH];
- Line 1170  double *agedc;
+ Line 1191  double *agedc;
  double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
                    * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
                    * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*age; */
- double **coqvar; /* Fixed quantitative covariate iqv */
+ double **coqvar; /* Fixed quantitative covariate nqv */
- double ***cotvar; /* Time varying covariate itv */
+ double ***cotvar; /* Time varying covariate ntv */
  double ***cotqvar; /* Time varying quantitative covariate itqv */
  double  idx;
  int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
- Line 2654  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
+ Line 2675  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
    max=vector(1,nlstate);
    meandiff=vector(1,nlstate);
-         dnewm=ddnewms; doldm=ddoldms; dsavm=ddsavms;
+   dnewm=ddnewms; doldm=ddoldms; dsavm=ddsavms;
-         oldm=oldms; savm=savms;
+   oldm=oldms; savm=savms;
-         /* Starting with matrix unity */
+   /* Starting with matrix unity */
-         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-                 for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      }
- Line 2733  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
+ Line 2754  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
      /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, ageminpar, agemaxpar, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
      /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
      out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent,ij)); /* Bug Valgrind */
+     /* if((int)age == 86 || (int)age == 87){ */
+     /*   printf(" Backward prevalim age=%d agefin=%d \n", (int) age, (int) agefin); */
+     /*   for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
+     /*  printf("%d newm= ",i); */
+     /*  for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+     /*    printf("%f ",newm[i][j]); */
+     /*  } */
+     /*  printf("oldm * "); */
+     /*  for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+     /*    printf("%f ",oldm[i][j]); */
+     /*  } */
+     /*  printf(" bmmij "); */
+     /*  for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+     /*    printf("%f ",pmmij[i][j]); */
+     /*  } */
+     /*  printf("\n"); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
      savm=oldm;
      oldm=newm;
      for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
        max[j]=0.;
        min[j]=1.;
- Line 2753  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
+ Line 2793  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
        meandiff[i]=(max[i]-min[i])/(max[i]+min[i])*2.; /* mean difference for each column */
        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,meandiff[i]);
        /* printf("Back age= %d meandiff[%d]=%f, agefin=%d max[%d]=%f min[%d]=%f maxmax=%f\n", (int)age, i, meandiff[i],(int)agefin, i, max[i], i, min[i],maxmax); */
-     } /* j loop */
+     } /* i loop */
      *ncvyear= -( (int)age- (int)agefin);
-     /* printf("Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear);*/
+     /* printf("Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
        /* printf("OK Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
        free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
- Line 2785  Oldest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloo
+ Line 2825  Oldest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloo
  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
  {
    /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
-      computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
+      computes the probability to be observed in state j (after stepm years) being in state i by appying the
       model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
       lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
       and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
- Line 2794  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2834  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
       j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
       Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
       sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
-      Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
+      Outputs ps[i][j] or probability to be observed in j being in i according to
       the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
+      Sum on j ps[i][j] should equal to 1.
    */
    double s1, lnpijopii;
    /*double t34;*/
- Line 2859  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2900  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
    /*
      for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
                  goto end;*/
-   return ps;
+   return ps; /* Pointer is unchanged since its call */
  }
  /*************** backward transition probabilities ***************/
- Line 2868  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2909  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
  /* double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, double ***dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
   double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, int ij )
  {
-   /* Computes the backward probability at age agefin and covariate ij
+   /* Computes the backward probability at age agefin and covariate combination ij. In fact cov is already filled and x too.
-    * and returns in **ps as well as **bmij.
+    * Call to pmij(cov and x), call to cross prevalence, sums and inverses, left multiply, and returns in **ps as well as **bmij.
     */
    int i, ii, j,k;
    double **out, **pmij();
    double sumnew=0.;
    double agefin;
+   double k3=0.; /* constant of the w_x diagonal matrixe (in order for B to sum to 1 even for death state) */
    double **dnewm, **dsavm, **doldm;
    double **bbmij;
- Line 2885  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2926  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
    dsavm=ddsavms;
    agefin=cov[2];
+   /* Bx = Diag(w_x) P_x Diag(Sum_i w^i_x p^ij_x */
    /* bmij *//* age is cov[2], ij is included in cov, but we need for
-      the observed prevalence (with this covariate ij) */
+      the observed prevalence (with this covariate ij) at beginning of transition */
-   dsavm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+   /* dsavm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
-   /* We do have the matrix Px in savm  and we need pij */
+   /* P_x */
+   pmmij=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); /*This is forward probability from agefin to agefin + stepm */
+   /* outputs pmmij which is a stochastic matrix in row */
+   /* Diag(w_x) */
+   /* Problem with prevacurrent which can be zero */
+   sumnew=0.;
+   /*for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){*/
+   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate;ii++){ /* Only on live states */
+     /* printf(" agefin=%d, ii=%d, ij=%d, prev=%f\n",(int)agefin,ii, ij, prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]);  */
+     sumnew+=prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij];
+   }
+   if(sumnew >0.01){  /* At least some value in the prevalence */
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+         doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]/sumnew : 0.0);
+     }
+   }else{
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+       doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./nlstate : 0.0);
+     }
+     /* if(sumnew <0.9){ */
+     /*   printf("Problem internal bmij B: sum on i wi <0.9: j=%d, sum_i wi=%lf,agefin=%d\n",j,sumnew, (int)agefin); */
+     /* } */
+   }
+   k3=0.0;  /* We put the last diagonal to 0 */
+   for (ii=nlstate+1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       doldm[ii][ii]= k3;
+   }
+   /* End doldm, At the end doldm is diag[(w_i)] */
+   /* left Product of this diag matrix by pmmij=Px (dnewm=dsavm*doldm) */
+   bbmij=matprod2(dnewm, doldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, pmmij); /* Bug Valgrind */
+   /* Diag(Sum_i w^i_x p^ij_x */
+   /* w1 p11 + w2 p21 only on live states N1./N..*N11/N1. + N2./N..*N21/N2.=(N11+N21)/N..=N.1/N.. */
    for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-     sumnew=0.; /* w1 p11 + w2 p21 only on live states */
+     sumnew=0.;
      for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate;ii++){
-       sumnew+=dsavm[ii][j]*prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij];
+       /* sumnew+=dsavm[ii][j]*prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]; */
+       sumnew+=pmmij[ii][j]*doldm[ii][ii]; /* Yes prevalence at beginning of transition */
      } /* sumnew is (N11+N21)/N..= N.1/N.. = sum on i of w_i pij */
      for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
-       if(sumnew >= 1.e-10){
          /* if(agefin >= agemaxpar && agefin <= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
-         /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+         /*      dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
          /* }else if(agefin >= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
-         /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+         /*      dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
          /* }else */
-         doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0);
+       dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0);
-       }else{
-         ;
-         /* printf("ii=%d, i=%d, doldm=%lf dsavm=%lf, probs=%lf, sumnew=%lf,agefin=%d\n",ii,j,doldm[ii][j],dsavm[ii][j],prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij],sumnew, (int)agefin); */
-       }
      } /*End ii */
-   } /* End j, At the end doldm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
+   } /* End j, At the end dsavm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] for ALL states even if the sum is only for live states */
-   /* left Product of this diag matrix by dsavm=Px (newm=dsavm*doldm) */
-   bbmij=matprod2(dnewm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, doldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
+   ps=matprod2(ps, dnewm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, dsavm); /* Bug Valgrind */
-   /* dsavm=doldm; /\* dsavm is now diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] but can be overwritten*\/ */
+   /* ps is now diag[w_i] * Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
-   /* doldm=dnewm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
-   /* dnewm=dsavm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
-   /* left Product of this matrix by diag matrix of prevalences (savm) */
-   for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
-       dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij] : 0.0);
-     }
-   } /* End j, At the end oldm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
-   ps=matprod2(doldm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, dnewm); /* Bug Valgrind */
-   /* newm or out is now diag[w_i] * Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
    /* end bmij */
-   return ps;
+   return ps; /*pointer is unchanged */
  }
  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
- Line 3135  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3200  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
      }
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-                                 po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
+         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
-                                 /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
+         /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
        }
      /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
    } /* end h */
-         /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+   /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
    return po;
  }
  /************* Higher Back Matrix Product ***************/
  /* double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
- double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, int ij )
+ double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, int ij, int nres )
  {
-   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+   /* For a combination of dummy covariate ij, computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
       nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
- Line 3156  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3221  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big
       for the memory).
       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be
-      included manually here.
+      included manually here. Then we use a call to bmij(x and cov)
+      The addresss of po (p3mat allocated to the dimension of nhstepm) should be stored for output
    */
    int i, j, d, h, k;
-   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **bmij();
-   double **newm;
+   double **newm, ***newmm;
    double agexact;
    double agebegin, ageend;
    double **oldm, **savm;
-   oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+   newmm=po; /* To be saved */
+   oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* Global pointers */
    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- Line 3180  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3246  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
        newm=savm;
        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
        cov[1]=1.;
-       agexact=age-((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition */
+       agexact=age-( (h-1)*hstepm + (d)  )*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition, d or d-1? */
        /* agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /\* age just before transition *\/ */
        cov[2]=agexact;
        if(nagesqr==1)
          cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++)
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++){
-         cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+       /*        cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)]; */
-       /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+       /* /\* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; *\/ */
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
+         cov[2+nagesqr+TvarsDind[k]]=nbcode[TvarsD[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-         /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+         /* printf("hbxij Dummy agexact=%.0f combi=%d k=%d TvarsD[%d]=V%d TvarsDind[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov[%d]=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",agexact,ij,k, k, TvarsD[k],k,TvarsDind[k],nbcode[TvarsD[k]][codtabm(ij,k)],2+nagesqr+TvarsDind[k],cov[2+nagesqr+TvarsDind[k]], ij, k, codtabm(ij,k)); */
-         cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+       }
-       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
+       for (k=1; k<=nsq;k++) { /* For single varying covariates only */
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
+         /* Here comes the value of quantitative after renumbering k with single quantitative covariates */
+         cov[2+nagesqr+TvarsQind[k]]=Tqresult[nres][k];
+         /* printf("hPxij Quantitative k=%d  TvarsQind[%d]=%d, TvarsQ[%d]=V%d,Tqresult[%d][%d]=%f\n",k,k,TvarsQind[k],k,TvarsQ[k],nres,k,Tqresult[nres][k]); */
+       }
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++){ /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
+         if(Dummy[Tvar[Tage[k]]]){
+           cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+         } else{
+           cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=Tqresult[nres][k];
+         }
+         /* printf("hBxij Age combi=%d k=%d  Tage[%d]=V%d Tqresult[%d][%d]=%f\n",ij,k,k,Tage[k],nres,k,Tqresult[nres][k]); */
+       }
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++){ /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
          cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+       }
        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
        /* Careful transposed matrix */
-       /* age is in cov[2] */
+       /* age is in cov[2], prevacurrent at beginning of transition. */
        /* out=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij),\ */
        /*                                                 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); */
        out=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent,ij),\
- Line 3225  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3302  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
-         /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
+         /* if(h==nhstepm) */
+         /*   printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]); */
        }
-     /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
+     /* printf("h=%d %.1f ",h, agexact); */
    } /* end h */
-   /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+   /* printf("\n H=%d nhs=%d \n",h, nhstepm); */
    return po;
  }
- Line 3684  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3762  double funcone( double *x)
        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
        /* if(s2==-1){ */
-       /*        printf(" s1=%d, s2=%d i=%d \n", s1, s2, i); */
+       /*        printf(" ERROR s1=%d, s2=%d i=%d \n", s1, s2, i); */
        /*        /\* exit(1); *\/ */
        /* } */
        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
- Line 3717  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3795  double funcone( double *x)
          fprintf(ficresilk,"%09ld %6.1f %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %15.6f %8.4f %8.3f\
   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
                  num[i], agebegin, ageend, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],weight[i]*gipmx/gsw,
-*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
+*weight[i]*lli,(s2==-1? -1: out[s1][s2]),(s2==-1? -1: savm[s1][s2]));
          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
- Line 4237  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
+ Line 4315  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
    fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#IMaCh version %s, %s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,copyright, fullversion, strstart);
  }
- int linreg(int ifi, int ila, int *no, const double x[], const double y[], double* a, double* b, double* r, double* sa, double * sb) {
-   /* y=a+bx regression */
-   double   sumx = 0.0;                        /* sum of x                      */
-   double   sumx2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of x**2                   */
-   double   sumxy = 0.0;                       /* sum of x * y                  */
-   double   sumy = 0.0;                        /* sum of y                      */
-   double   sumy2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of y**2                   */
-   double   sume2; /* sum of square or residuals */
-   double yhat;
-   double denom=0;
-   int i;
-   int ne=*no;
-   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
-     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
-       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
-       continue;
-     }
-     ne=ne+1;
-     sumx  += x[i];
-     sumx2 += x[i]*x[i];
-     sumxy += x[i] * y[i];
-     sumy  += y[i];
-     sumy2 += y[i]*y[i];
-     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
-     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
-   }
-   denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
-   if (denom == 0) {
-     // vertical, slope m is infinity
-     *b = INFINITY;
-     *a = 0;
-     if (r) *r = 0;
-     return 1;
-   }
-   *b = (ne * sumxy  -  sumx * sumy) / denom;
-   *a = (sumy * sumx2  -  sumx * sumxy) / denom;
-   if (r!=NULL) {
-     *r = (sumxy - sumx * sumy / ne) /          /* compute correlation coeff     */
-       sqrt((sumx2 - sumx*sumx/ne) *
-            (sumy2 - sumy*sumy/ne));
-   }
-   *no=ne;
-   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
-     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
-       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
-       continue;
-     }
-     ne=ne+1;
-     yhat = y[i] - *a -*b* x[i];
-     sume2  += yhat * yhat ;
-     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
-     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
-   }
-   *sb = sqrt(sume2/(ne-2)/(sumx2 - sumx * sumx /ne));
-   *sa= *sb * sqrt(sumx2/ne);
-   return 0;
- }
  /************ Frequencies ********************/
  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], double p[], double pstart[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, \
- Line 4308  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], double
+ Line 4323  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], double
                    int firstpass,  int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[])
  {  /* Some frequencies as well as proposing some starting values */
-   int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j, nj, nl, k, iv, jj=0;
+   int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j, nj, nl, k, iv, jj=0, s1=1, s2=1;
    int iind=0, iage=0;
    int mi; /* Effective wave */
    int first;
    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
-   double *x, *y, a,b,r, sa, sb; /* for regression, y=b+m*x and r is the correlation coefficient */
+   double *x, *y, a=0.,b=0.,r=1., sa=0., sb=0.; /* for regression, y=b+m*x and r is the correlation coefficient */
-   int no;
+   int no=0, linreg(int ifi, int ila, int *no, const double x[], const double y[], double* a, double* b, double* r, double* sa, double * sb);
    double *meanq;
    double **meanqt;
    double *pp, **prop, *posprop, *pospropt;
- Line 4387  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4402  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
    k2cpt=0;
    if(cptcoveff == 0 )
-     nl=1;  /* Constant model only */
+     nl=1;  /* Constant and age model only */
    else
      nl=2;
+   /* if a constant only model, one pass to compute frequency tables and to write it on ficresp */
+   /* Loop on nj=1 or 2 if dummy covariates j!=0
+    *   Loop on j1(1 to 2**cptcoveff) covariate combination
+    *     freq[s1][s2][iage] =0.
+    *     Loop on iind
+    *       ++freq[s1][s2][iage] weighted
+    *     end iind
+    *     if covariate and j!0
+    *       headers Variable on one line
+    *     endif cov j!=0
+    *     header of frequency table by age
+    *     Loop on age
+    *       pp[s1]+=freq[s1][s2][iage] weighted
+    *       pos+=freq[s1][s2][iage] weighted
+    *       Loop on s1 initial state
+    *         fprintf(ficresp
+    *       end s1
+    *     end age
+    *     if j!=0 computes starting values
+    *     end compute starting values
+    *   end j1
+    * end nl
+    */
    for (nj = 1; nj <= nl; nj++){   /* nj= 1 constant model, nl number of loops. */
      if(nj==1)
        j=0;  /* First pass for the constant */
-     else
+     else{
        j=cptcoveff; /* Other passes for the covariate values */
+     }
      first=1;
-     for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,j); j1++){ /* Loop on covariates combination in order of model, excluding quantitatives, V4=0, V3=0 for example, fixed or varying covariates */
+     for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,j); j1++){ /* Loop on all covariates combination of the model, excluding quantitatives, V4=0, V3=0 for example, fixed or varying covariates */
        posproptt=0.;
        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
          scanf("%d", i);*/
        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
-         for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+         for (s2=-5; s2<=nlstate+ndeath; s2++)
            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
-             freq[i][jk][m]=0;
+             freq[i][s2][m]=0;
        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  {
          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
- Line 4421  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4461  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
        /* dateintsum=0; */
        /* k2cpt=0; */
-       /* For that combination of covariate j1, we count and print the frequencies in one pass */
+       /* For that combination of covariates j1 (V4=1 V3=0 for example), we count and print the frequencies in one pass */
        for (iind=1; iind<=imx; iind++) { /* For each individual iind */
          bool=1;
          if(j !=0){
- Line 4437  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4477  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
                  /*       /\* sumnew+=coqvar[z1][iind]; *\/ */
                  /* }else  */
                  if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][iind]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]){ /* for combination j1 of covariates */
-                   /* Tests if this individual iind responded to combination j1 (V4=1 V3=0) */
+                   /* Tests if the value of the covariate z1 for this individual iind responded to combination j1 (V4=1 V3=0) */
                    bool=0; /* bool should be equal to 1 to be selected, one covariate value failed */
                    /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, j1=%d\n",
                       bool,i,z1, z1, Tvaraff[z1],i,covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i],j1,z1,codtabm(j1,z1),
- Line 4448  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4488  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
              } /* cptcovn > 0 */
            } /* end any */
          }/* end j==0 */
-         if (bool==1){ /* We selected an individual iind satisfying combination j1 or all fixed */
+         if (bool==1){ /* We selected an individual iind satisfying combination j1 (V4=1 V3=0) or all fixed covariates */
            /* for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){ */
            for(mi=1; mi<wav[iind];mi++){ /* For that wave */
              m=mw[mi][iind];
- Line 4510  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4550  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
-       pstamp(ficresp);
+       if(cptcoveff==0 && nj==1) /* no covariate and first pass */
+         pstamp(ficresp);
        if  (cptcoveff>0 && j!=0){
+         pstamp(ficresp);
          printf( "\n#********** Variable ");
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
          fprintf(ficresphtm, "\n<br/><br/><h3>********** Variable ");
- Line 4539  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4581  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
          fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n");
        }
        fprintf(ficresphtm,"<table style=\"text-align:center; border: 1px solid\">");
+       if((cptcoveff==0 && nj==1)|| nj==2 ) /* no covariate and first pass */
+         fprintf(ficresp, " Age");
+       if(nj==2) for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, " V%d=%d",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d)  N(%d)  N  ",i,i);
+         if((cptcoveff==0 && nj==1)|| nj==2 ) fprintf(ficresp," Prev(%d)  N(%d)  N  ",i,i);
          fprintf(ficresphtm, "<th>Age</th><th>Prev(%d)</th><th>N(%d)</th><th>N</th>",i,i);
        }
-       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
+       if((cptcoveff==0 && nj==1)|| nj==2 ) fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
        fprintf(ficresphtm, "\n");
        /* Header of frequency table by age */
        fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<table style=\"text-align:center; border: 1px solid\">");
        fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<th>Age</th> ");
-       for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++){
+       for(s2=-1; s2 <=nlstate+ndeath; s2++){
          for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++){
-           if(jk!=0 && m!=0)
+           if(s2!=0 && m!=0)
-             fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<th>%d%d</th> ",jk,m);
+             fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<th>%d%d</th> ",s2,m);
          }
        }
        fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "\n");
- Line 4577  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4622  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
            fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>%d</th> ",iage);
            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", iage);
          }
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+         for(s1=1; s1 <=nlstate ; s1++){
-           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
+           for(m=-1, pp[s1]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
-             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][iage];
+             pp[s1] += freq[s1][m][iage];
          }
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+         for(s1=1; s1 <=nlstate ; s1++){
            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
-             pos += freq[jk][m][iage];
+             pos += freq[s1][m][iage];
-           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
+           if(pp[s1]>=1.e-10){
              if(first==1){
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",s1,pp[s1],s1,100*pos/pp[s1]);
              }
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",s1,pp[s1],s1,100*pos/pp[s1]);
            }else{
              if(first==1)
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",s1,pp[s1],s1);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",s1,pp[s1],s1);
            }
          }
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+         for(s1=1; s1 <=nlstate ; s1++){
-           /* posprop[jk]=0; */
+           /* posprop[s1]=0; */
-           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)/* Summing on all ages */
+           for(m=0, pp[s1]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)/* Summing on all ages */
-             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][iage];
+             pp[s1] += freq[s1][m][iage];
-         }       /* pp[jk] is the total number of transitions starting from state jk and any ending status until this age */
+         }       /* pp[s1] is the total number of transitions starting from state s1 and any ending status until this age */
-         for(jk=1,pos=0, pospropta=0.; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+         for(s1=1,pos=0, pospropta=0.; s1 <=nlstate ; s1++){
-           pos += pp[jk]; /* pos is the total number of transitions until this age */
+           pos += pp[s1]; /* pos is the total number of transitions until this age */
-           posprop[jk] += prop[jk][iage]; /* prop is the number of transitions from a live state
+           posprop[s1] += prop[s1][iage]; /* prop is the number of transitions from a live state
-                                             from jk at age iage prop[s[m][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind] */
+                                             from s1 at age iage prop[s[m][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind] */
-           pospropta += prop[jk][iage]; /* prop is the number of transitions from a live state
+           pospropta += prop[s1][iage]; /* prop is the number of transitions from a live state
-                                           from jk at age iage prop[s[m][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind] */
+                                           from s1 at age iage prop[s[m][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind] */
+         }
+         /* Writing ficresp */
+         if(cptcoveff==0 && nj==1){ /* no covariate and first pass */
+           if( iage <= iagemax){
+             fprintf(ficresp," %d",iage);
+           }
+         }else if( nj==2){
+           if( iage <= iagemax){
+             fprintf(ficresp," %d",iage);
+             for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, " %d %d",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+           }
          }
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+         for(s1=1; s1 <=nlstate ; s1++){
            if(pos>=1.e-5){
              if(first==1)
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",s1,pp[s1],s1,100*pp[s1]/pos);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",s1,pp[s1],s1,100*pp[s1]/pos);
            }else{
              if(first==1)
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",s1,pp[s1],s1);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",s1,pp[s1],s1);
            }
            if( iage <= iagemax){
              if(pos>=1.e-5){
-               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",iage,prop[jk][iage]/pospropta, prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+               if(cptcoveff==0 && nj==1){ /* no covariate and first pass */
-             /* fprintf(ficresp, "%d %d %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)],iage,prop[jk][iage]/pospropta, prop[jk][iage],pospropta); */
+                 fprintf(ficresp," %.5f %.0f %.0f",prop[s1][iage]/pospropta, prop[s1][iage],pospropta);
+               }else if( nj==2){
-               fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>%.5f</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",iage,prop[jk][iage]/pospropta, prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+                 fprintf(ficresp," %.5f %.0f %.0f",prop[s1][iage]/pospropta, prop[s1][iage],pospropta);
-               /*probs[iage][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
+               }
-               /*printf("\niage=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",iage,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[iage][jk][j1]);*/
+               fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>%.5f</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",iage,prop[s1][iage]/pospropta, prop[s1][iage],pospropta);
-             }
+               /*probs[iage][s1][j1]= pp[s1]/pos;*/
-             else{
+               /*printf("\niage=%d s1=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",iage,s1,j1,pp[s1]/pos, pp[s1],pos,probs[iage][s1][j1]);*/
-               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",iage,prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+             } else{
-               fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>NaNq</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",iage, prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+               if((cptcoveff==0 && nj==1)|| nj==2 ) fprintf(ficresp," NaNq %.0f %.0f",prop[s1][iage],pospropta);
+               fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>NaNq</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",iage, prop[s1][iage],pospropta);
              }
            }
-           pospropt[jk] +=posprop[jk];
+           pospropt[s1] +=posprop[s1];
-         } /* end loop jk */
+         } /* end loop s1 */
          /* pospropt=0.; */
-         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++){
+         for(s1=-1; s1 <=nlstate+ndeath; s1++){
            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++){
-             if(freq[jk][m][iage] !=0 ) { /* minimizing output */
+             if(freq[s1][m][iage] !=0 ) { /* minimizing output */
                if(first==1){
-                 printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iage]);
+                 printf(" %d%d=%.0f",s1,m,freq[s1][m][iage]);
                }
-               /* printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iage]); */
+               /* printf(" %d%d=%.0f",s1,m,freq[s1][m][iage]); */
-               fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iage]);
+               fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",s1,m,freq[s1][m][iage]);
              }
-             if(jk!=0 && m!=0)
+             if(s1!=0 && m!=0)
-               fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<td>%.0f</td> ",freq[jk][m][iage]);
+               fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<td>%.0f</td> ",freq[s1][m][iage]);
            }
-         } /* end loop jk */
+         } /* end loop s1 */
          posproptt=0.;
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate; jk++){
+         for(s1=1; s1 <=nlstate; s1++){
-           posproptt += pospropt[jk];
+           posproptt += pospropt[s1];
          }
          fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"</tr>\n ");
-         if(iage <= iagemax){
+         fprintf(ficresphtm,"</tr>\n");
-           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
+         if((cptcoveff==0 && nj==1)|| nj==2 ) {
-           fprintf(ficresphtm,"</tr>\n");
+           if(iage <= iagemax)
+             fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
          }
          if(first==1)
            printf("Others in log...\n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        } /* end loop age iage */
        fprintf(ficresphtm,"<tr><th>Tot</th>");
-       for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+       for(s1=1; s1 <=nlstate ; s1++){
          if(posproptt < 1.e-5){
-           fprintf(ficresphtm,"<td>Nanq</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",pospropt[jk],posproptt);
+           fprintf(ficresphtm,"<td>Nanq</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",pospropt[s1],posproptt);
          }else{
-           fprintf(ficresphtm,"<td>%.5f</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",pospropt[jk]/posproptt,pospropt[jk],posproptt);
+           fprintf(ficresphtm,"<td>%.5f</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",pospropt[s1]/posproptt,pospropt[s1],posproptt);
          }
        }
        fprintf(ficresphtm,"</tr>\n");
- Line 4687  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4747  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        if(j!=0){
          printf("#Freqsummary: Starting values for combination j1=%d:\n", j1);
-         for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+         for(i=1,s1=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
            for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
              if (k != i) {
-               for(jj=1; jj <=ncovmodel; jj++){ /* For counting jk */
+               for(jj=1; jj <=ncovmodel; jj++){ /* For counting s1 */
                  if(jj==1){  /* Constant case (in fact cste + age) */
                    if(j1==1){ /* All dummy covariates to zero */
                      freq[i][k][iagemax+4]=freq[i][k][iagemax+3]; /* Stores case 0 0 0 */
                      freq[i][i][iagemax+4]=freq[i][i][iagemax+3]; /* Stores case 0 0 0 */
                      printf("%d%d ",i,k);
                      fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
-                     printf("%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %f, OR=%f sd=%f \n",p[jk],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]),freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3], sqrt(1/freq[i][k][iagemax+3]+1/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
+                     printf("%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %f, OR=%f sd=%f \n",p[s1],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]),freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3], sqrt(1/freq[i][k][iagemax+3]+1/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
-                     fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %12.7f \n",p[jk],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
+                     fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %12.7f \n",p[s1],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
-                     pstart[jk]= log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]);
+                     pstart[s1]= log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]);
                    }
                  }else if((j1==1) && (jj==2 || nagesqr==1)){ /* age or age*age parameter without covariate V4*age (to be done later) */
                    for(iage=iagemin; iage <= iagemax+3; iage++){
                      x[iage]= (double)iage;
                      y[iage]= log(freq[i][k][iage]/freq[i][i][iage]);
-                     /* printf("i=%d, k=%d, jk=%d, j1=%d, jj=%d, y[%d]=%f\n",i,k,jk,j1,jj, iage, y[iage]); */
+                     /* printf("i=%d, k=%d, s1=%d, j1=%d, jj=%d, y[%d]=%f\n",i,k,s1,j1,jj, iage, y[iage]); */
                    }
+                   /* Some are not finite, but linreg will ignore these ages */
+                   no=0;
                    linreg(iagemin,iagemax,&no,x,y,&a,&b,&r, &sa, &sb ); /* y= a+b*x with standard errors */
-                   pstart[jk]=b;
+                   pstart[s1]=b;
-                   pstart[jk-1]=a;
+                   pstart[s1-1]=a;
                  }else if( j1!=1 && (j1==2 || (log(j1-1.)/log(2.)-(int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))) <0.010) && ( TvarsDind[(int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1]+2+nagesqr == jj)  && Dummy[jj-2-nagesqr]==0){ /* We want only if the position, jj, in model corresponds to unique covariate equal to 1 in j1 combination */
                    printf("j1=%d, jj=%d, (int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1=%d, TvarsDind[(int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1]=%d\n",j1, jj,(int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1,TvarsDind[(int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1]);
                    printf("j1=%d, jj=%d, (log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1=%f, TvarsDind[(int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1]=%d\n",j1, jj,(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1,TvarsDind[(int)(log(j1-1.)/log(2.))+1]);
-                   pstart[jk]= log((freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3])/(freq[i][k][iagemax+4]/freq[i][i][iagemax+4]));
+                   pstart[s1]= log((freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3])/(freq[i][k][iagemax+4]/freq[i][i][iagemax+4]));
                    printf("%d%d ",i,k);
                    fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
-                   printf("jk=%d,i=%d,k=%d,p[%d]=%12.7f ln((%.0f/%.0f)/(%.0f/%.0f))= %f, OR=%f sd=%f \n",jk,i,k,jk,p[jk],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3],freq[i][k][iagemax+4],freq[i][i][iagemax+4], log((freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3])/(freq[i][k][iagemax+4]/freq[i][i][iagemax+4])),(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3])/(freq[i][k][iagemax+4]/freq[i][i][iagemax+4]), sqrt(1/freq[i][k][iagemax+3]+1/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]+1/freq[i][k][iagemax+4]+1/freq[i][i][iagemax+4]));
+                   printf("s1=%d,i=%d,k=%d,p[%d]=%12.7f ln((%.0f/%.0f)/(%.0f/%.0f))= %f, OR=%f sd=%f \n",s1,i,k,s1,p[s1],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3],freq[i][k][iagemax+4],freq[i][i][iagemax+4], log((freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3])/(freq[i][k][iagemax+4]/freq[i][i][iagemax+4])),(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3])/(freq[i][k][iagemax+4]/freq[i][i][iagemax+4]), sqrt(1/freq[i][k][iagemax+3]+1/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]+1/freq[i][k][iagemax+4]+1/freq[i][i][iagemax+4]));
                  }else{ /* Other cases, like quantitative fixed or varying covariates */
                    ;
                  }
                  /* printf("%12.7f )", param[i][jj][k]); */
                  /* fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f )", param[i][jj][k]); */
-                 jk++;
+                 s1++;
                } /* end jj */
              } /* end k!= i */
            } /* end k */
-         } /* end i, jk */
+         } /* end i, s1 */
        } /* end j !=0 */
      } /* end selected combination of covariate j1 */
      if(j==0){ /* We can estimate starting values from the occurences in each case */
        printf("#Freqsummary: Starting values for the constants:\n");
        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+       for(i=1,s1=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
          for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
            if (k != i) {
              printf("%d%d ",i,k);
              fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
              for(jj=1; jj <=ncovmodel; jj++){
-               pstart[jk]=p[jk]; /* Setting pstart to p values by default */
+               pstart[s1]=p[s1]; /* Setting pstart to p values by default */
                if(jj==1){ /* Age has to be done */
-                 pstart[jk]= log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]);
+                 pstart[s1]= log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]);
-                 printf("%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %12.7f ",p[jk],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
+                 printf("%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %12.7f ",p[s1],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
-                 fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %12.7f ",p[jk],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
+                 fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ln(%.0f/%.0f)= %12.7f ",p[s1],freq[i][k][iagemax+3],freq[i][i][iagemax+3], log(freq[i][k][iagemax+3]/freq[i][i][iagemax+3]));
                }
                /* printf("%12.7f )", param[i][jj][k]); */
                /* fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f )", param[i][jj][k]); */
-               jk++;
+               s1++;
              }
              printf("\n");
              fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- Line 4755  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4817  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
        }
        printf("#Freqsummary\n");
        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-       for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++){
+       for(s1=-1; s1 <=nlstate+ndeath; s1++){
-         for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++){
+         for(s2=-1; s2 <=nlstate+ndeath; s2++){
-           /* param[i]|j][k]= freq[jk][m][iagemax+3] */
+           /* param[i]|j][k]= freq[s1][s2][iagemax+3] */
-           printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iagemax+3]);
+           printf(" %d%d=%.0f",s1,s2,freq[s1][s2][iagemax+3]);
-           fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iagemax+3]);
+           fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",s1,s2,freq[s1][s2][iagemax+3]);
-           /* if(freq[jk][m][iage] !=0 ) { /\* minimizing output *\/ */
+           /* if(freq[s1][s2][iage] !=0 ) { /\* minimizing output *\/ */
-           /*   printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iagemax+3]); */
+           /*   printf(" %d%d=%.0f",s1,s2,freq[s1][s2][iagemax+3]); */
-           /*   fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iagemax+3]); */
+           /*   fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",s1,s2,freq[s1][s2][iagemax+3]); */
            /* } */
          }
-       } /* end loop jk */
+       } /* end loop s1 */
        printf("\n");
        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- Line 4810  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4872  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
    /* End of freqsummary */
  }
+ /* Simple linear regression */
+ int linreg(int ifi, int ila, int *no, const double x[], const double y[], double* a, double* b, double* r, double* sa, double * sb) {
+   /* y=a+bx regression */
+   double   sumx = 0.0;                        /* sum of x                      */
+   double   sumx2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of x**2                   */
+   double   sumxy = 0.0;                       /* sum of x * y                  */
+   double   sumy = 0.0;                        /* sum of y                      */
+   double   sumy2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of y**2                   */
+   double   sume2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of square or residuals */
+   double yhat;
+   double denom=0;
+   int i;
+   int ne=*no;
+   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
+     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
+       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
+       continue;
+     }
+     ne=ne+1;
+     sumx  += x[i];
+     sumx2 += x[i]*x[i];
+     sumxy += x[i] * y[i];
+     sumy  += y[i];
+     sumy2 += y[i]*y[i];
+     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
+     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
+   }
+   denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
+   if (denom == 0) {
+     // vertical, slope m is infinity
+     *b = INFINITY;
+     *a = 0;
+     if (r) *r = 0;
+     return 1;
+   }
+   *b = (ne * sumxy  -  sumx * sumy) / denom;
+   *a = (sumy * sumx2  -  sumx * sumxy) / denom;
+   if (r!=NULL) {
+     *r = (sumxy - sumx * sumy / ne) /          /* compute correlation coeff     */
+       sqrt((sumx2 - sumx*sumx/ne) *
+            (sumy2 - sumy*sumy/ne));
+   }
+   *no=ne;
+   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
+     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
+       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
+       continue;
+     }
+     ne=ne+1;
+     yhat = y[i] - *a -*b* x[i];
+     sume2  += yhat * yhat ;
+     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
+     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
+   }
+   *sb = sqrt(sume2/(double)(ne-2)/(sumx2 - sumx * sumx /(double)ne));
+   *sa= *sb * sqrt(sumx2/ne);
+   return 0;
+ }
  /************ Prevalence ********************/
  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
  {
- Line 4899  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
+ Line 5027  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
            } else{
              if(first==1){
                first=0;
-               printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others in log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
+               printf("Warning Observed prevalence doesn't sum to 1 for state %d: probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others in log file...\n",jk,i,jk, j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
+               fprintf(ficlog,"Warning Observed prevalence doesn't sum to 1 for state %d: probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others in log file...\n",jk,i,jk, j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
+             }else{
+               fprintf(ficlog,"Warning Observed prevalence doesn't sum to 1 for state %d: probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others in log file...\n",jk,i,jk, j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
              }
            }
          }
- Line 5339  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 5470  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
-      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
+      Look at hpijx to understand the reason which relies in memory size consideration
       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
- Line 5570  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 5701  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
          }
+     /* Standard deviation of expectancies ij */
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
        eip=0.;
- Line 5585  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 5717  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
      }
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
+     /* Variance of expectancies ij */
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
- Line 5938  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6071  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
   }  /* end varevsij */
  /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
-  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[], int nres)
+  void varprevlim(char fileresvpl[], FILE *ficresvpl, double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[], int nres)
  {
    /* Variance of prevalence limit  for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+   double **dnewmpar,**doldm;
    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
    double *xp;
    double *gp, *gm;
- Line 5962  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6095  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
    xp=vector(1,npar);
-   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   dnewmpar=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
- Line 6032  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6165  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
      if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80  ||(int)age== 81){
-     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
      }else{
-     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
      }
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
- Line 6057  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6190  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+   free_matrix(dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
  }
- /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
- void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
-  {
-    int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
-    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
-    int k=0, l;
-    int first=1, first1, first2;
-    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
-    double **dnewm,**doldm;
-    double *xp;
-    double *gp, *gm;
-    double **gradg, **trgradg;
-    double **mu;
-    double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
-    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
-    int theta;
-    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
-    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
-    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
-    double ***varpij;
-    strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_");
+ /************ Variance of backprevalence limit ******************/
-    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+  void varbrevlim(char fileresvbl[], FILE  *ficresvbl, double **varbpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **bprlim, double ftolpl, int mobilavproj, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[], int nres)
-    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+ {
-      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+   /* Variance of backward prevalence limit  for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
-      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
-    }
-    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_");
+   double **dnewmpar,**doldm;
-    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
+   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
-    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
+   double *xp;
-      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+   double *gp, *gm;
-      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+   double **gradg, **trgradg;
-    }
+   double **mgm, **mgp;
-    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_");
+   double age,agelim;
-    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
+   int theta;
-    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
-      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+   pstamp(ficresvbl);
-      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+   fprintf(ficresvbl,"# Standard deviation of back (stable) prevalences \n");
-    }
+   fprintf(ficresvbl,"# Age ");
-    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+   if(nresult >=1)
-    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+     fprintf(ficresvbl," Result# ");
-    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+       fprintf(ficresvbl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
-    printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+   fprintf(ficresvbl,"\n");
-    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
-    pstamp(ficresprob);
+   xp=vector(1,npar);
+   dnewmpar=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+   agelim = AGEINF;
+   for (age=fage; age>=bage; age --){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+     nhstepm=(int) rint((age-agelim)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
+     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
+     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     mgp=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     mgm=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     gp=vector(1,nlstate);
+     gm=vector(1,nlstate);
+     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
+         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+       }
+       if(mobilavproj > 0 )
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+       else
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+         gp[i] = bprlim[i][i];
+         mgp[theta][i] = bprlim[i][i];
+       }
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
+         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+        if(mobilavproj > 0 )
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+        else
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+         gm[i] = bprlim[i][i];
+         mgm[theta][i] = bprlim[i][i];
+       }
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
+       /* gradg[theta][2]= -gradg[theta][1]; */ /* For testing if nlstate=2 */
+     } /* End theta */
+     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\nmgm mgp %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf(" %d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf(" %d %lf %lf",theta,mgm[theta][j],mgp[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\n gradg %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf("%d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf("%d %lf ",theta,gradg[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+       varbpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
+     if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80  ||(int)age== 81){
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }else{
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+       varbpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
+     fprintf(ficresvbl,"%.0f ",age );
+     if(nresult >=1)
+       fprintf(ficresvbl,"%d ",nres );
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       fprintf(ficresvbl," %.5f (%.5f)",bprlim[i][i],sqrt(varbpl[i][(int)age]));
+     fprintf(ficresvbl,"\n");
+     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
+     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgp,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   } /* End age */
+   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   free_matrix(dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+ }
+ /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
+ void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
+  {
+    int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
+    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
+    int k=0, l;
+    int first=1, first1, first2;
+    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
+    double **dnewm,**doldm;
+    double *xp;
+    double *gp, *gm;
+    double **gradg, **trgradg;
+    double **mu;
+    double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
+    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
+    int theta;
+    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    double ***varpij;
+    strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_");
+    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+    }
+    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_");
+    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
+    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+    }
+    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_");
+    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
+    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+    }
+    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+    printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+    pstamp(ficresprob);
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
     fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcov);
- Line 6137  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], do
+ Line 6395  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], do
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
-    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4> this page is important in order to visualize confidence intervals and especially correlation between disability and recovery, or more generally, way in and way back.</li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4> this page is important in order to visualize confidence intervals and especially correlation between disability and recovery, or more generally, way in and way back. %s</li>\n",optionfilehtmcov,optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n",optionfilehtmcov, optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated \
  and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
- Line 6354  To be simple, these graphs help to under
+ Line 6612  To be simple, these graphs help to under
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480");
-                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
+                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<p><br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
   :<a href=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\">                                                                                                                                           \
  %s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,      \
- Line 6365  To be simple, these graphs help to under
+ Line 6623  To be simple, these graphs help to under
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",      \
-                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),                                                                         \
+                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(fabs(lc2)),   \
-                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(fabs(lc2))); /* For gnuplot only */
                   }else{
                     first=0;
                     fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not", \
-                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),                                 \
+                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(fabs(lc2)),   \
-                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(fabs(lc2)));
                   }/* if first */
                 } /* age mod 5 */
               } /* end loop age */
- Line 6558  divided by h: <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub>
+ Line 6816  divided by h: <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub>
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /* Projection of prevalence up to period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
         for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
-          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f and mobil_average=%d) up to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
+          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f and mobil_average=%d) up to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in an observed weighted state (from 1 to %d). <a href=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
  <img src=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">", dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres);
         }
       }
+      if(backcast==1){
+       /* Back projection of prevalence up to stable (mixed) back-prevalence in each health state */
+        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Back projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f and mobil_average=%d) up to stable (mixed) back prevalence in state %d. Or probability to have been in an state %d, knowing that the person was in either state (1 or %d) with weights corresponding to observed prevalence  at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">", dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres);
+        }
+      }
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) (or area under each survival functions): <a href=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d-%d.svg</a> <br> \
- Line 6665  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 6930  true period expectancies (those weighted
  }
  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
- void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , int prevfcast, int backcast, char pathc[], double p[]){
+ void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double bage, double fage , int prevfcast, int backcast, char pathc[], double p[], int offyear, int offbyear){
    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
    char gplotcondition[132], gplotlabel[132];
- Line 6674  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
+ Line 6939  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
    int ng=0;
    int vpopbased;
    int ioffset; /* variable offset for columns */
+   int iyearc=1; /* variable column for year of projection  */
+   int iagec=1; /* variable column for age of projection  */
    int nres=0; /* Index of resultline */
+   int istart=1; /* For starting graphs in projections */
  /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
  /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
- Line 6773  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
+ Line 7041  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
            if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
            else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
          }
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence\" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
+         /* fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence\" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1)); */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" u 1:((",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"));
+         if(cptcoveff ==0){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d)) t 'Observed prevalence in state %d' with line lt 3",      2+3*(cpt-1),  cpt );
+         }else{
+           kl=0;
+           for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each combination of covariate  */
+             lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
+             /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+             /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+             /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+             vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+             kl++;
+             /* kl=6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1); /\* 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1)=7, 6+(2-1)(2+1)+1+(1-1)=10 *\/ */
+             /*6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
+             if(k==cptcoveff){
+               fprintf(ficgp,"$%d==%d && $%d==%d)? $%d : 1/0) t 'Observed prevalence in state %d' w l lt 2",kl+1, Tvaraff[k],kl+1+1,nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv], \
++cptcoveff*2+3*(cpt-1),  cpt );  /* 4 or 6 ?*/
+             }else{
+               fprintf(ficgp,"$%d==%d && $%d==%d && ",kl+1, Tvaraff[k],kl+1+1,nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]);
+               kl++;
+             }
+           } /* end covariate */
+         } /* end if no covariate */
          if(backcast==1){ /* We need to get the corresponding values of the covariates involved in this combination k1 */
            /* fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Backward stable prevalence\" w l lt 3",subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"),k1-1,k1-1,1+cpt); */
            fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u 1:((",subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_")); /* Age is in 1, nres in 2 to be fixed */
- Line 6801  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
+ Line 7096  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
                }
              } /* end covariate */
            } /* end if no covariate */
+           if(backcast == 1){
+             fprintf(ficgp,", \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3:1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VBL_"),nres-1,nres-1,nres);
+             /* k1-1 error should be nres-1*/
+             for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+               if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+               else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+             }
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Backward (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 6 dt 3,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3+1.96*$4 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VBL_"),nres-1,nres-1,nres);
+             for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+               if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+               else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+             }
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 6,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3-1.96*$4 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VBL_"),nres-1,nres-1,nres);
+             for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+               if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+               else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+             }
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 6");
+           } /* end if backprojcast */
          } /* end if backcast */
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out ;unset label;\n");
        } /* nres */
- Line 7094  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7408  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
      for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++){ /* For each resultline */
        if(m != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k1)
          continue;
-       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life ending state */
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life origin state */
          strcpy(gplotlabel,"(");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV Back preval stable (period): 'pijb' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
          for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
- Line 7118  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7432  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
          }
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,k1,nres);
-         fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Ending alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Origin alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
          fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
          k=3; /* Offset */
-         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){ /* State of origin */
+         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){ /* State of arrival */
            if(i==1)
              fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"));
            else
- Line 7135  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7449  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
            /* for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++) */
            /*    fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); */
            /*    /\* fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); *\/ */
-           fprintf(ficgp,") t \"bprev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
+           fprintf(ficgp,") t \"bprev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,i);
          } /* nlstate */
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out; unset label;\n");
        } /* end cpt state*/
- Line 7178  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7492  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
          fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
          fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Prevalence\" \n\
  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
-         for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 */
+         /* for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /\* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 *\/ */
+         istart=nlstate+1; /* Could be one if by state, but nlstate+1 is w.i projection only */
+         /*istart=1;*/ /* Could be one if by state, but nlstate+1 is w.i projection only */
+         for (i=istart; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 */
            /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
            /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
            /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
            /*#   1       2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
-           if(i==1){
+           if(i==istart){
              fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"));
            }else{
              fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
- Line 7195  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7513  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
              /*# V1  = 1 yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
              /*#  1    2        3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
              fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(", ioffset);
-             if(i==nlstate+1)
+             if(i==nlstate+1){
-               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'pw.%d' with line ",      \
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)):1 t 'pw.%d' with line lc variable ",        \
                        ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
-             else
+               fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
+               fprintf(ficgp," (($1-$2) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):1 with labels center not ", \
+                      offyear,                           \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate );
+             }else
                fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'p%d%d' with line ",      \
                        ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,i,cpt );
            }else{ /* more than 2 covariates */
-             if(cptcoveff ==1){
+             ioffset=2*cptcoveff+2; /* Age is in 4 or 6 or etc.*/
-               ioffset=4; /* Age is in 4 */
+             /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
-             }else{
+             /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
-               ioffset=6; /* Age is in 6 */
+             iyearc=ioffset-1;
-               /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+             iagec=ioffset;
-               /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
-             }
              fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
              kl=0;
              strcpy(gplotcondition,"(");
- Line 7230  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7551  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
              /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
              /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
              if(i==nlstate+1){
-               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p.%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):%d t 'p.%d' with line lc variable", gplotcondition, \
-                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,iyearc, cpt );
+               fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",iagec);
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s && (($%d-$%d) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):%d with labels center not ", gplotcondition, \
+                       iyearc, iagec, offyear,                           \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate, iyearc );
+ /*  '' u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0  && $3==2 && $4==0) && (($5-$6) == 1947) ? $10/(1.-$22) : 1/0):5 with labels center boxed not*/
              }else{
                fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p%d%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \
                        ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1), ioffset +1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,i,cpt );
- Line 7243  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7570  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
      } /* end covariate */
    } /* End if prevfcast */
+   if(backcast==1){
+     /* Back projection from cross-sectional to stable (mixed) for each covariate */
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) /* For each covariate combination if any */
+     for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++){ /* For each resultline */
+       if(m != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k1)
+         continue;
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+         strcpy(gplotlabel,"(");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#Back projection of prevalence to stable (mixed) back prevalence: 'BPROJ_' files, covariatecombination#=%d originstate=%d",k1, cpt);
+         for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each correspondig covariate value  */
+           lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
+           /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+           vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+           fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+           sprintf(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel)," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+         }
+         for (k4=1; k4<= nsq; k4++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
+           fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][k4],Tqresult[nres][k4]);
+           sprintf(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel)," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][k4],Tqresult[nres][k4]);
+         }
+         strcpy(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel),")");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+         if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+           continue;
+         }
+         fprintf(ficgp,"# hbijx=backprobability over h years, hb.jx is weighted by observed prev at destination state\n ");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Origin alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Prevalence\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+         /* for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /\* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 *\/ */
+         istart=nlstate+1; /* Could be one if by state, but nlstate+1 is w.i projection only */
+         /*istart=1;*/ /* Could be one if by state, but nlstate+1 is w.i projection only */
+         for (i=istart; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 */
+           /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+           /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+           /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+           /*#   1       2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+           if(i==istart){
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"FB_"));
+           }else{
+             fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+           }
+           if(cptcoveff ==0){ /* No covariate */
+             ioffset=2; /* Age is in 2 */
+             /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
+             /*#   1       2   3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
+             /*# V1  = 1 yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
+             /*#  1    2        3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
+             fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(", ioffset);
+             if(i==nlstate+1){
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)):1 t 'bw%d' with line lc variable ", \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+               fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
+               fprintf(ficgp," (($1-$2) == %d ) ? $%d : 1/0):1 with labels center not ", \
+                      offbyear,                          \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1) );
+             }else
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'b%d%d' with line ",      \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt,i );
+           }else{ /* more than 2 covariates */
+             ioffset=2*cptcoveff+2; /* Age is in 4 or 6 or etc.*/
+             /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+             /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+             iyearc=ioffset-1;
+             iagec=ioffset;
+             fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
+             kl=0;
+             strcpy(gplotcondition,"(");
+             for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate writing the chain of conditions */
+               lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to combination k1 and covariate k */
+               /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+               /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+               /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+               vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]; /* Value of the modality of Tvaraff[k] */
+               kl++;
+               sprintf(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition),"$%d==%d && $%d==%d " ,kl,Tvaraff[k], kl+1, nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]);
+               kl++;
+               if(k <cptcoveff && cptcoveff>1)
+                 sprintf(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition)," && ");
+             }
+             strcpy(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition),")");
+             /* kl=6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1); /\* 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1)=7, 6+(2-1)(2+1)+1+(1-1)=10 *\/ */
+             /*6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
+             if(i==nlstate+1){
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d : 1/0):%d t 'bw%d' with line lc variable", gplotcondition, \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),iyearc,cpt );
+               fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",iagec);
+               /* fprintf(ficgp,"%s && (($5-$6) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):5 with labels center not ", gplotcondition, \ */
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s && (($%d-$%d) == %d ) ? $%d : 1/0):%d with labels center not ", gplotcondition, \
+                       iyearc,iagec,offbyear,                            \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1), iyearc );
+ /*  '' u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0  && $3==2 && $4==0) && (($5-$6) == 1947) ? $10/(1.-$22) : 1/0):5 with labels center boxed not*/
+             }else{
+               /* fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p%d%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \ */
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d : 1/0) t 'b%d%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1), cpt,i );
+             }
+           } /* end if covariate */
+         } /* nlstate */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out; unset label;\n");
+       } /* end cpt state*/
+     } /* end covariate */
+   } /* End if backcast */
    /* 9eme writing MLE parameters */
    fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#9eme MLE estimated parameters\n#############\n");
- Line 7349  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7791  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
              /* for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) { */
              for(j=1; j <=cptcovt; j++) { /* For each covariate of the simplified model */
                /* printf("Tage[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tage[ij], j); */
-               if(j==Tage[ij]) { /* Product by age */
+               if(cptcovage >0){ /* V5+V4+V3+V4*V3+V5*age+V2+V1*V2+V1*age+V1, 2 V5 and V1 */
-                 if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* V5+V4+V3+V4*V3+V5*age+V2+V1*V2+V1*age+V1, 2 V5 and V1 */
+                 if(j==Tage[ij]) { /* Product by age  To be looked at!!*/
-                   if(DummyV[j]==0){
+                   if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* V5+V4+V3+V4*V3+V5*age+V2+V1*V2+V1*age+V1, 2 V5 and V1 */
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]);;
+                     if(DummyV[j]==0){
-                   }else{ /* quantitative */
+                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]);;
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]); /* Tqinvresult in decoderesult */
+                     }else{ /* quantitative */
-                     /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
+                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]); /* Tqinvresult in decoderesult */
-                   }
+                       /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
-                   ij++;
-                 }
-               }else if(j==Tprod[ijp]) { /* */
-                 /* printf("Tprod[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tprod[ijp], j); */
-                 if(ijp <=cptcovprod) { /* Product */
-                   if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][1]]==0){/* Vn is dummy */
-                     if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){/* Vn and Vm are dummy */
-                       /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],nbcode[Tvard[ijp][2]][codtabm(k1,j)]); */
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
-                     }else{ /* Vn is dummy and Vm is quanti */
-                       /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]); */
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
                      }
-                   }else{ /* Vn*Vm Vn is quanti */
+                     ij++;
-                     if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){
+                   }
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]]);
+                 }
-                     }else{ /* Both quanti */
+               }else if(cptcovprod >0){
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                 if(j==Tprod[ijp]) { /* */
+                   /* printf("Tprod[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tprod[ijp], j); */
+                   if(ijp <=cptcovprod) { /* Product */
+                     if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][1]]==0){/* Vn is dummy */
+                       if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){/* Vn and Vm are dummy */
+                         /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],nbcode[Tvard[ijp][2]][codtabm(k1,j)]); */
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                       }else{ /* Vn is dummy and Vm is quanti */
+                         /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]); */
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                       }
+                     }else{ /* Vn*Vm Vn is quanti */
+                       if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]]);
+                       }else{ /* Both quanti */
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                       }
                      }
+                     ijp++;
                    }
-                   ijp++;
+                 } /* end Tprod */
-                 }
                } else{  /* simple covariate */
                  /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j]][codtabm(k1,j)]); /\* Valgrind bug nbcode *\/ */
                  if(Dummy[j]==0){
- Line 7406  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7852  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
                ij=1;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
-                 if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                  if(cptcovage >0){
-                   if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                    if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);
+                      if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                     /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
+                        fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);
-                     ij++;
+                        /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
-                   }
+                        ij++;
-                 }
+                      }
-                 else
+                    }
-                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);/* Valgrind bug nbcode */
+                  }else
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);/* Valgrind bug nbcode */
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")");
              }
- Line 7451  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7898  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     int iage=0;
-    double sum=0.;
+    double sum=0., sumr=0.;
     double age;
-    double *sumnewp, *sumnewm;
+    double *sumnewp, *sumnewm, *sumnewmr;
-    double *agemingood, *agemaxgood; /* Currently identical for all covariates */
+    double *agemingood, *agemaxgood;
+    double *agemingoodr, *agemaxgoodr;
     /* modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/\* Max number of modalities. We suppose  */
- Line 7462  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7910  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
     sumnewp = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
     sumnewm = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
+    sumnewmr = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
     agemingood = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
+    agemingoodr = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
     agemaxgood = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
+    agemaxgoodr = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
     for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){
-      sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+      sumnewm[cptcod]=0.; sumnewmr[cptcod]=0.;
       sumnewp[cptcod]=0.;
-      agemingood[cptcod]=0;
+      agemingood[cptcod]=0, agemingoodr[cptcod]=0;
-      agemaxgood[cptcod]=0;
+      agemaxgood[cptcod]=0, agemaxgoodr[cptcod]=0;
     }
     if (cptcovn<1) ncovcombmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
-    if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
+    if(mobilav==-1 || mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
-      if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
+      if(mobilav==1 || mobilav==-1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- Line 7486  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7937  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
       */
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
-          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){
-            for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){
+            sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+            for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
               for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
               }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
-            }
+              sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
-          }
+            } /* end i */
+            if(sumnewm[cptcod] >1.e-3) mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/sumnewm[cptcod]; /* Rescaling to sum one */
+          } /* end cptcod */
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
-    }else
+    }else{
+      printf("Error internal in movingaverage, mobilav=%d.\n",mobilav);
       return -1;
-    for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){
+    }
+    for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){ /* for each combination */
       /* for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){ */
       if(invalidvarcomb[cptcod]){
         printf("\nCombination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",cptcod);
         continue;
       }
-      agemingood[cptcod]=fage-(mob-1)/2;
+      for (age=fage-(mob-1)/2; age>=bage+(mob-1)/2; age--){ /*looking for the youngest and oldest good age */
-      for (age=fage-(mob-1)/2; age>=bage; age--){/* From oldest to youngest, finding the youngest wrong */
         sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+        sumnewmr[cptcod]=0.;
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          sumnewmr[cptcod]+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+        }
+        if(fabs(sumnewmr[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good without smoothing */
+          agemingoodr[cptcod]=age;
         }
         if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
-          agemingood[cptcod]=age;
+            agemingood[cptcod]=age;
-        }else{ /* bad */
+        }
-          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+      } /* age */
-            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+      for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){ /*looking for the youngest and oldest good age */
-          } /* i */
-        } /* end bad */
-      }/* age */
-      sum=0.;
-      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-        sum+=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
-      }
-      if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
-        printf("For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one at any descending age!\n",cptcod);
-        /* for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){ */
-        /*   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod]; */
-        /* } /\* i *\/ */
-      } /* end bad */
-      /* else{ /\* We found some ages summing to one, we will smooth the oldest *\/ */
-      /* From youngest, finding the oldest wrong */
-      agemaxgood[cptcod]=bage+(mob-1)/2;
-      for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage; age++){
         sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+        sumnewmr[cptcod]=0.;
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          sumnewmr[cptcod]+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+        }
+        if(fabs(sumnewmr[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good without smoothing */
+          agemaxgoodr[cptcod]=age;
         }
         if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
           agemaxgood[cptcod]=age;
-        }else{ /* bad */
+        }
-          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+      } /* age */
-            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+      /* Thus we have agemingood and agemaxgood as well as goodr for raw (preobs) */
-          } /* i */
+      /* but they will change */
+      for (age=fage-(mob-1)/2; age>=bage; age--){/* From oldest to youngest, filling up to the youngest */
+        sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+        sumnewmr[cptcod]=0.;
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          sumnewmr[cptcod]+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+        }
+        if(mobilav==-1){ /* Forcing raw ages if good else agemingood */
+          if(fabs(sumnewmr[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good without smoothing */
+            agemaxgoodr[cptcod]=age;  /* age min */
+            for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          }else{ /* bad we change the value with the values of good ages */
+            for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgoodr[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+            } /* i */
+          } /* end bad */
+        }else{
+          if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
+            agemaxgood[cptcod]=age;
+          }else{ /* bad we change the value with the values of good ages */
+            for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+            } /* i */
+          } /* end bad */
+        }/* end else */
+        sum=0.;sumr=0.;
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          sum+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          sumr+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+        }
+        if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
+          printf("Moving average A1: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one (%f) at any descending age! age=%d, could you increase bage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, (int)bage);
+        } /* end bad */
+        /* else{ /\* We found some ages summing to one, we will smooth the oldest *\/ */
+        if(fabs(sumr - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
+          printf("Moving average A2: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, the raw prevalence doesn't sums to one (%f) even with smoothed values at young ages! age=%d, could you increase bage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, (int)bage);
         } /* end bad */
       }/* age */
-      sum=0.;
-      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+      for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage; age++){/* From youngest, finding the oldest wrong */
-        sum+=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+        sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
-      }
+        sumnewmr[cptcod]=0.;
-      if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-        printf("For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one at any ascending age!\n",cptcod);
+          sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
-        /* for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){ */
+          sumnewmr[cptcod]+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
-        /*   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod]; */
+        }
-        /* } /\* i *\/ */
+        if(mobilav==-1){ /* Forcing raw ages if good else agemingood */
-      } /* end bad */
+          if(fabs(sumnewmr[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
+            agemingoodr[cptcod]=age;
+            for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          }else{ /* bad we change the value with the values of good ages */
+            for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingoodr[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+            } /* i */
+          } /* end bad */
+        }else{
+          if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
+            agemingood[cptcod]=age;
+          }else{ /* bad */
+            for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+            } /* i */
+          } /* end bad */
+        }/* end else */
+        sum=0.;sumr=0.;
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          sum+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          sumr+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+        }
+        if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
+          printf("Moving average B1: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one (%f) at any descending age! age=%d, could you decrease fage=%d?\n",cptcod, sum, (int) age, (int)fage);
+        } /* end bad */
+        /* else{ /\* We found some ages summing to one, we will smooth the oldest *\/ */
+        if(fabs(sumr - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
+          printf("Moving average B2: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, the raw prevalence doesn't sums to one (%f) even with smoothed values at young ages! age=%d, could you increase fage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, (int)fage);
+        } /* end bad */
+      }/* age */
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++){
         /* printf("%d %d ", cptcod, (int)age); */
- Line 7571  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8088  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
       }
       /* printf("\n"); */
       /* } */
       /* brutal averaging */
-      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+      /* for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){ */
-        for (age=1; age<=bage; age++){
+      /*   for (age=1; age<=bage; age++){ */
-          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+      /*          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod]; */
-          /* printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]); */
+      /*          /\* printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]); *\/ */
-        }
+      /*   }      */
-        for (age=fage; age<=AGESUP; age++){
+      /*   for (age=fage; age<=AGESUP; age++){ */
-          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+      /*          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod]; */
-          /* printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]); */
+      /*          /\* printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]); *\/ */
-        }
+      /*   } */
-      } /* end i status */
+      /* } /\* end i status *\/ */
-      for (i=nlstate+1; i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++){
+      /* for (i=nlstate+1; i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++){ */
-        for (age=1; age<=AGESUP; age++){
+      /*   for (age=1; age<=AGESUP; age++){ */
-          /*printf("i=%d, age=%d, cptcod=%d\n",i, (int)age, cptcod);*/
+      /*          /\*printf("i=%d, age=%d, cptcod=%d\n",i, (int)age, cptcod);*\/ */
-          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=0.;
+      /*          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=0.; */
-        }
+      /*   } */
-      }
+      /* } */
     }/* end cptcod */
-    free_vector(sumnewm,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(agemaxgoodr,1, ncovcombmax);
-    free_vector(sumnewp,1, ncovcombmax);
     free_vector(agemaxgood,1, ncovcombmax);
     free_vector(agemingood,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(agemingoodr,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(sumnewmr,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(sumnewm,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(sumnewp,1, ncovcombmax);
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
  /************** Forecasting ******************/
-  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
+  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double ***prev, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
    /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection
       agemin, agemax range of age
       dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
       anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
    */
-    int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1, k4, nres=0;
+   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1, k4, nres=0;
    double agec; /* generic age */
    double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
    double *popeffectif,*popcount;
- Line 7637  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8158  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
    if(estepm < stepm){
      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
    }
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
+   else{
+     hstepm=estepm;
+   }
+   if(estepm > stepm){ /* Yes every two year */
+     stepsize=2;
+   }
    hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
    yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
- Line 7682  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8208  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
      for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
        fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
        fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
-       for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
+       /* for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){  */
+       for (agec=fage; agec>=(bage); agec--){
          nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
          nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
          p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+         /* We compute pii at age agec over nhstepm);*/
          hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k,nres);
+         /* Then we print p3mat for h corresponding to the right agec+h*stepms=yearp */
          for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
            if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
-             fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+             break;
-             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+           }
-               fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         }
-             fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
-           }
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+           fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-             ppij=0.;
+         fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-               if (mobilav==1)
+         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-                 ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][k];
+           ppij=0.;
-               else {
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-                 ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][k];
+             /* if (mobilav>=1)  */
-               }
+             ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*prev[(int)agec][i][k];
-               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
+             /* else { */ /* even if mobilav==-1 we use mobaverage */
-                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+             /*  ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][k]; */
-               }
+             /* } */
-             } /* end i */
+             fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
-             if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
+           } /* end i */
-               fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
+           fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
-             }
+         }/* end j */
-           }/* end j */
-         } /* end h */
          free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
        } /* end agec */
+       /* diffyear=(int) anproj1+yearp-ageminpar-1; */
+       /*printf("Prevforecast %d+%d-%d=diffyear=%d\n",(int) anproj1, (int)yearp,(int)ageminpar,(int) anproj1-(int)ageminpar);*/
      } /* end yearp */
    } /* end  k */
- Line 7724  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8252  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
  }
- /* /\************** Back Forecasting ******************\/ */
+ /************** Back Forecasting ******************/
- /* void prevbackforecast(char fileres[], double anback1, double mback1, double jback1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anback2, double p[], int cptcoveff){ */
+  void prevbackforecast(char fileres[], double ***prevacurrent, double anback1, double mback1, double jback1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anback2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
- /*   /\* back1, year, month, day of starting backection  */
+   /* back1, year, month, day of starting backection
- /*      agemin, agemax range of age */
+      agemin, agemax range of age
- /*      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed */
+      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
- /*      anback2 year of en of backection (same day and month as back1). */
+      anback2 year of end of backprojection (same day and month as back1).
- /*   *\/ */
+      prevacurrent and prev are prevalences.
- /*   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1; */
+   */
- /*   double agec; /\* generic age *\/ */
+   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1, k4, nres=0;
- /*   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean; */
+   double agec; /* generic age */
- /*   double *popeffectif,*popcount; */
+   double agelim, ppij, ppi, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
- /*   double ***p3mat; */
+   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
- /*   /\* double ***mobaverage; *\/ */
+   double ***p3mat;
- /*   char fileresfb[FILENAMELENGTH]; */
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
+   char fileresfb[FILENAMELENGTH];
- /*   agelim=AGESUP; */
- /*   /\* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people */
+   agelim=AGEINF;
- /*      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2). */
+   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
- /*      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection. */
+      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
- /*   *\/ */
+      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
- /*   /\* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ *\/ */
+   */
- /*   /\*              firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); *\/ */
+   /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ */
- /*   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
+   /*          firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); */
- /*   strcpy(fileresfb,"FB_");  */
+   /*Do we need to compute prevalence again?*/
- /*   strcat(fileresfb,fileresu); */
- /*   if((ficresfb=fopen(fileresfb,"w"))==NULL) { */
+   /* prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
- /*     printf("Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
- /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
- /*   } */
- /*   printf("Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
- /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
- /*   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1; */
- /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) { *\/ */
- /*   /\*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
- /*   /\*   if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ *\/ */
- /*   /\*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
- /*   /\*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
- /*   /\*   } *\/ */
- /*   /\* } *\/ */
- /*   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM; */
- /*   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1; */
- /*   if(estepm < stepm){ */
- /*     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm); */
- /*   } */
- /*   else  hstepm=estepm;    */
- /*   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;  */
- /*   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/\* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and */
- /*                                fractional in yp1 *\/ */
- /*   anprojmean=yp; */
- /*   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp); */
- /*   mprojmean=yp; */
- /*   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp); */
- /*   jprojmean=yp; */
- /*   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
- /*   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
- /*   i1=cptcoveff; */
- /*   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;} */
- /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);  */
+   strcpy(fileresfb,"FB_");
+   strcat(fileresfb,fileresu);
+   if((ficresfb=fopen(fileresfb,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb);
+   }
+   printf("\nComputing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\nComputing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb);
- /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"#****** Routine prevbackforecast **\n"); */
+   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
- /*      /\*           if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ *\/ */
- /*   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
- /*     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){ */
+   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
- /*       k=k+1; */
+   if(estepm < stepm){
- /*       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n#****** hbijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#"); */
+     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
- /*       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) { */
+   }
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
+   else{
- /*       } */
+     hstepm=estepm;
- /*       fprintf(ficresfb," yearbproj age"); */
+   }
- /*       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  */
+   if(estepm >= stepm){ /* Yes every two year */
- /*                              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)               */
+     stepsize=2;
- /*           fprintf(ficresfb," p%d%d",i,j); */
+   }
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," p.%d",j); */
- /*       } */
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
- /*       for (yearp=0; yearp>=(anback2-anback1);yearp -=stepsize) {  */
+   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
- /*                              /\* for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {  *\/ */
+                                fractional in yp1 */
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
+   anprojmean=yp;
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp);    */
+   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
- /*                              for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){  */
+   mprojmean=yp;
- /*                                      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);  */
+   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
- /*                                      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;  */
+   jprojmean=yp;
- /*                                      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
+   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
- /*                                      oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
+   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
- /*                                      hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k);       */
- /*                                      for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){ */
+   i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
- /*                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) { */
+   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
- /*               fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
- /*               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  */
+   fprintf(ficresfb,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
- /*                 fprintf(ficresfb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
+   printf("# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
- /*                                                      fprintf(ficresfb,"%.f %.f ",anback1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm); */
- /*                                              }  */
+   fprintf(ficresfb,"#****** Routine prevbackforecast **\n");
- /*                                              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
- /*                                                      ppij=0.; */
+   for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
- /*                                                      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) { */
+   for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
- /*                                                              if (mobilav==1)  */
+     if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
- /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod]; */
+       continue;
- /*                                                              else { */
+     if(invalidvarcomb[k]){
- /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod]; */
+       printf("\nCombination (%d) projection ignored because no cases \n",k);
- /*                                                              } */
+       continue;
- /*                                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) { */
+     }
- /*                                                                      fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]); */
+     fprintf(ficresfb,"\n#****** hbijx=probability over h years, hb.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#");
- /*                                                              } */
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
- /*                                                      } /\* end i *\/ */
+       fprintf(ficresfb," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
- /*                                                      if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) { */
+     }
- /*                                                              fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", ppij); */
+     for (k4=1; k4<= nsq; k4++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
- /*                                                      } */
+       fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][k4],Tqresult[nres][k4]);
- /*                                              }/\* end j *\/ */
+     }
- /*                                      } /\* end h *\/ */
+     fprintf(ficresfb," yearbproj age");
- /*                                      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- /*                              } /\* end agec *\/ */
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- /*       } /\* end yearp *\/ */
+         fprintf(ficresfb," b%d%d",i,j);
- /*     } /\* end cptcod *\/ */
+       fprintf(ficresfb," b.%d",j);
- /*   } /\* end  cptcov *\/ */
+     }
+     for (yearp=0; yearp>=(anback2-anback1);yearp -=stepsize) {
- /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
+       /* for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {  */
+       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n");
- /*   fclose(ficresfb); */
+       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp);
- /*   printf("End of Computing Back forecasting \n"); */
+       printf("\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp);
- /*   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing Back forecasting\n"); */
+       /* for (agec=bage; agec<=agemax-1; agec++){  /\* testing *\/ */
+       for (agec=bage; agec<=fage; agec++){  /* testing */
+         /* We compute bij at age agec over nhstepm, nhstepm decreases when agec increases because of agemax;*/
+         nhstepm=(int) (agec-agelim) *YEARM/stepm;/*     nhstepm=(int) rint((agec-agelim)*YEARM/stepm);*/
+         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+         /* computes hbxij at age agec over 1 to nhstepm */
+         /* printf("####prevbackforecast debug  agec=%.2f nhstepm=%d\n",agec, nhstepm);fflush(stdout); */
+         hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k, nres);
+         /* hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,             nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k,nres); */
+         /* Then we print p3mat for h corresponding to the right agec+h*stepms=yearp */
+         /* printf(" agec=%.2f\n",agec);fflush(stdout); */
+         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+           if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==-yearp) {
+             break;
+           }
+         }
+         fprintf(ficresfb,"\n");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+           fprintf(ficresfb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         fprintf(ficresfb,"%.f %.f ",anback1+yearp,agec-h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++) {
+           ppij=0.;ppi=0.;
+           for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) {
+             /* if (mobilav==1) */
+             ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*prevacurrent[(int)agec][j][k];
+             ppi=ppi+prevacurrent[(int)agec][j][k];
+             /* ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][j][k]; */
+             /* ppi=ppi+mobaverage[(int)agec][j][k]; */
+               /* else { */
+               /*        ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][k]; */
+               /* } */
+             fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+           } /* end j */
+           if(ppi <0.99){
+             printf("Error in prevbackforecast, prevalence doesn't sum to 1 for state %d: %3f\n",i, ppi);
+             fprintf(ficlog,"Error in prevbackforecast, prevalence doesn't sum to 1 for state %d: %3f\n",i, ppi);
+           }
+           fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", ppij);
+         }/* end j */
+         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       } /* end agec */
+     } /* end yearp */
+   } /* end k */
+   /* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
+   fclose(ficresfb);
+   printf("End of Computing Back forecasting \n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing Back forecasting\n");
- /* } */
+ }
+ /* Variance of prevalence limit: varprlim */
+  void varprlim(char fileresu[], int nresult, double ***prevacurrent, int mobilavproj, double bage, double fage, double **prlim, int *ncvyearp, double ftolpl, double p[], double **matcov, double *delti, int stepm, int cptcoveff){
+     /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
+    char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    FILE *ficresvpl;
+    double **oldm, **savm;
+    double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
+    int i1, k, nres, j ;
+     strcpy(fileresvpl,"VPL_");
+     strcat(fileresvpl,fileresu);
+     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
+       exit(0);
+     }
+     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);
+     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
+     i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+     for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
+     for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
+       if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
+         continue;
+       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
+       printf("\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficlog,"\n#****** ");
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         printf("V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       }
+       for (j=1; j<= nsq; j++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
+         printf(" V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+         fprintf(ficresvpl," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+         fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
+       printf("******\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+       varprevlim(fileresvpl, ficresvpl, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k, strstart, nres);
+       free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       /*}*/
+     }
+     fclose(ficresvpl);
+     printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
+  }
+ /* Variance of back prevalence: varbprlim */
+  void varbprlim(char fileresu[], int nresult, double ***prevacurrent, int mobilavproj, double bage, double fage, double **bprlim, int *ncvyearp, double ftolpl, double p[], double **matcov, double *delti, int stepm, int cptcoveff){
+       /*------- Variance of back (stable) prevalence------*/
+    char fileresvbl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    FILE  *ficresvbl;
+    double **oldm, **savm;
+    double **varbpl; /* Variances of back prevalence limits by age */
+    int i1, k, nres, j ;
+    strcpy(fileresvbl,"VBL_");
+    strcat(fileresvbl,fileresu);
+    if((ficresvbl=fopen(fileresvbl,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with variance of back (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvbl);
+      exit(0);
+    }
+    printf("Computing Variance-covariance of back (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvbl);fflush(stdout);
+    fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of back (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvbl);fflush(ficlog);
+    i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+    if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+    for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
+      for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
+        if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
+          continue;
+        fprintf(ficresvbl,"\n#****** ");
+        printf("\n#****** ");
+        fprintf(ficlog,"\n#****** ");
+        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+          fprintf(ficresvbl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+          fprintf(ficlog,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+          printf("V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+        }
+        for (j=1; j<= nsq; j++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
+          printf(" V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+          fprintf(ficresvbl," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+          fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+        }
+        fprintf(ficresvbl,"******\n");
+        printf("******\n");
+        fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+        varbpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+        oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+        varbrevlim(fileresvbl, ficresvbl, varbpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, bprlim, ftolpl, mobilavproj, ncvyearp, k, strstart, nres);
+        free_matrix(varbpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+        /*}*/
+      }
+    fclose(ficresvbl);
+    printf("done variance-covariance of back prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of back prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
+  } /* End of varbprlim */
  /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
  /* void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2s, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){ */
- Line 9696  int back_prevalence_limit(double *p, dou
+ Line 10362  int back_prevalence_limit(double *p, dou
          }else{
            /* bprevalim(bprlim, probs, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); */
            bprevalim(bprlim, probs, nlstate, p, age, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k,nres);
+           /* printf("TOTOT\n"); */
+           /* exit(1); */
          }
          fprintf(ficresplb,"%.0f ",age );
          for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
- Line 9854  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
+ Line 10522  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
          /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
-         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); /* We can't have it at an upper level because of nhstepm */
+         /* and memory limitations if stepm is small */
          /* oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
          /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);   */
-         hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k);
+         hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k, nres);
          /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k); */
          fprintf(ficrespijb,"# Cov Agex agex-h hbijx with i,j=");
          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- Line 9958  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10628  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double *delti; /* Scale */
    double ***eij, ***vareij;
    double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
    double *epj, vepp;
    double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
- Line 10241  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10912  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
-   coqvar=matrix(1,nqv,1,n);  /**< Fixed quantitative covariate */
+   if(nqv>=1)coqvar=matrix(1,nqv,1,n);  /**< Fixed quantitative covariate */
-   cotvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying covariate (dummy and quantitative)*/
+   if(nqtv>=1)cotqvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying quantitative covariate */
-   cotqvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying quantitative covariate */
+   if(ntv+nqtv>=1)cotvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying covariate (dummy and quantitative)*/
    cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
    /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
       v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
- Line 10794  Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.
+ Line 11465  Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.
  Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
            imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
    pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
    /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
       so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
- Line 11417  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12088  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
      }else{
-       printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p);
+       /* printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p, (int)anproj1-(int)agemin, (int)anback1-(int)agemax+1); */
+       printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage, fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p, (int)anproj1-bage, (int)anback1-fage);
      }
      printinghtml(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt, \
                   model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,mobilav,prevfcast,mobilavproj,backcast, estepm, \
- Line 11457  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12129  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      k=1;
      varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
-     /* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] */
+     /* Prevalence for each covariate combination in probs[age][status][cov] */
-     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+     probs= ma3x(AGEINF,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
-     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
+     for(i=AGEINF;i<=AGESUP;i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* ndeath is useless but a necessity to be compared with mobaverages */
          for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++)
            probs[i][j][k]=0.;
-     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode,
+                ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
      if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0 ) {
-       mobaverages= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+       mobaverages= ma3x(AGEINF, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
-       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
+       for(i=AGEINF;i<=AGESUP;i++)
-         for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+         for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
            for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++)
              mobaverages[i][j][k]=0.;
        mobaverage=mobaverages;
- Line 11478  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12151  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
            fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
            printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
          }
-       }
+       } else if (mobilavproj !=0) {
-       /* /\* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] *\/ */
-       /* prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
-       else if (mobilavproj !=0) {
          printf("Movingaveraging projected observed prevalence\n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"Movingaveraging projected observed prevalence\n");
          if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, mobaverage, mobilavproj)!=0){
            fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
            printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
          }
+       }else{
+         printf("Internal error moving average\n");
+         fflush(stdout);
+         exit(1);
        }
      }/* end if moving average */
      /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
-     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
      if(prevfcast==1){
        /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
-       prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
+       prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, mobaverage, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
      }
+     /* Backcasting */
      if(backcast==1){
        ddnewms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
        ddoldms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
- Line 11505  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12180  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
        bprlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
        back_prevalence_limit(p, bprlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass, mobilavproj);
        fclose(ficresplb);
        hBijx(p, bage, fage, mobaverage);
        fclose(ficrespijb);
-       free_matrix(bprlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
-       /* prevbackforecast(fileresu, anback1, mback1, jback1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj,
+       prevbackforecast(fileresu, mobaverage, anback1, mback1, jback1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,
-          bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anback2, p, cptcoveff); */
+                        mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anback2, p, cptcoveff);
+       varbprlim(fileresu, nresult, mobaverage, mobilavproj, bage, fage, bprlim, &ncvyear, ftolpl, p, matcov, delti, stepm, cptcoveff);
+       free_matrix(bprlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
        free_matrix(ddnewms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
        free_matrix(ddsavms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
        free_matrix(ddoldms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
-     }
+     }    /* end  Backcasting */
      /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */
- Line 11570  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12249  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fclose(ficreseij);
      printf("done evsij\n");fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"done evsij\n");fflush(ficlog);
      /*---------- State-specific expectancies and variances ------------*/
      strcpy(filerest,"T_");
      strcat(filerest,fileresu);
      if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
- Line 11582  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12261  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      }
      printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(ficlog);
      strcpy(fileresstde,"STDE_");
      strcat(fileresstde,fileresu);
      if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
- Line 11611  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12288  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      printf("      Computing Variance-covariance of State-specific Expectancies: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"      Computing Variance-covariance of State-specific Expectancies: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(ficlog);
-     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      i1=pow(2,cptcoveff); /* Number of combination of dummy covariates */
      if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
- Line 11675  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12349  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
        pstamp(ficrest);
+       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
        for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
          oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
          cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
- Line 11691  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12365  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
          for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
          fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
          /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
-         epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
          printf("Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
          for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
- Line 11729  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12402  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
            fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
          }
        } /* End vpopbased */
+       free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
        free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
        free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-       free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
        printf("done selection\n");fflush(stdout);
        fprintf(ficlog,"done selection\n");fflush(ficlog);
-       /*}*/
      } /* End k selection */
      printf("done State-specific expectancies\n");fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"done State-specific expectancies\n");fflush(ficlog);
-     /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
+     /* variance-covariance of period prevalence*/
+     varprlim(fileresu, nresult, mobaverage, mobilavproj, bage, fage, prlim, &ncvyear, ftolpl, p, matcov, delti, stepm, cptcoveff);
-     strcpy(fileresvpl,"VPL_");
-     strcat(fileresvpl,fileresu);
-     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
-       printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
-       exit(0);
-     }
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);
-     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
-     i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-     for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
-     for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
-       if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
-         continue;
-       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
-       printf("\n#****** ");
-       fprintf(ficlog,"\n#****** ");
-       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         printf("V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-       }
-       for (j=1; j<= nsq; j++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
-         printf(" V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
-         fprintf(ficresvpl," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
-         fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
-       }
-       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
-       printf("******\n");
-       fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
-       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-       varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k, strstart, nres);
-       free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-       /*}*/
-     }
-     fclose(ficresvpl);
-     printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
      free_vector(weight,1,n);
      free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
- Line 11806  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12433  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
      if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0)
-       free_ma3x(mobaverages,1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax); /* We need to have a squared matrix with prevalence of the dead! */
+       free_ma3x(mobaverages,AGEINF, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax); /* We need to have a squared matrix with prevalence of the dead! */
-     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+     free_ma3x(probs,AGEINF,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
      free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
      free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
    }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
- Line 11815  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12442  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
    free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
    free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_ma3x(cotqvar,1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);
+   if(ntv+nqtv>=1)free_ma3x(cotvar,1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);
-   free_ma3x(cotvar,1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);
+   if(nqtv>=1)free_ma3x(cotqvar,1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);
-   free_matrix(coqvar,1,maxwav,1,n);
+   if(nqv>=1)free_matrix(coqvar,1,nqv,1,n);
    free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
    free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
    /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
    free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
    free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
+   free_ma3x(paramstart,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
    free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
    free_ivector(ncodemax,1,NCOVMAX);

FreeBSD-CVSweb <freebsd-cvsweb@FreeBSD.org>

Removed from v.1.264
changed lines
	Added in v.1.271