--- imach/src/imach.c	2002/03/29 15:27:27	1.36
+++ imach/src/imach.c	2002/05/24 13:01:48	1.44
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.36 2002/03/29 15:27:27 brouard Exp $
+/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.44 2002/05/24 13:01:48 brouard Exp $
    Interpolated Markov Chain
 
   Short summary of the programme:
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
-  probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave
+  probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@
 #include <unistd.h>
 
 #define MAXLINE 256
-#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "wgnuplot"
+#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
 /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80
 /*#define DEBUG*/
@@ -1330,10 +1330,10 @@ void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax
   j=cptcoveff;
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
- for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
+  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
       j1++;
- 
+      
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
 	for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
 	  for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)
@@ -1352,41 +1352,46 @@ void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax
 	    if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
 	      if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
 	      if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
-	      if (m<lastpass) freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];
-	      /* freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3+1)] += weight[i];  */ 
+	      if (m<lastpass) {
+	      	if (calagedate>0) 
+		  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];
+		else
+		  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+		freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3)] += weight[i]; 
+	      }
 	    }
 	  }
 	}
       }
-	for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){ 
-	  for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-	    for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
-	      pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
-	  }
-	  for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-	    for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
+      for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){ 
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
+	    pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
+	}
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
 	    pos += freq[jk][m][i];
 	}
 	
-	 for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-	   for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
-	     pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
-	 }
-	 
-	 for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];
-
-	 for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){	   
-	   if( i <= (int) agemax){
-	     if(pos>=1.e-5){
-	       probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
-	     }
-	   }
-	 }
-	 
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+	    pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
 	}
+	
+	for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];
+	
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){	   
+	  if( i <= (int) agemax){
+	    if(pos>=1.e-5){
+	      probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
+	    }
+	  }
+	}
+	
+      }
     }
   }
-  
+
   
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
@@ -1503,7 +1508,7 @@ void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {
 	if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
 	  nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
-	  /*	 printf("nbcodeaaaaaaaaaaa=%d Tvar[j]=%d ij=%d j=%d",nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij],Tvar[j],ij,j);*/
+	  
 	  ij++;
 	}
 	if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
@@ -1531,18 +1536,29 @@ void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
 
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
 
-void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm)
+void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )
+
 {
   /* Health expectancies */
-  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm;
+  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;
   double age, agelim, hf;
-  double ***p3mat;
+  double ***p3mat,***varhe;
+  double **dnewm,**doldm;
+  double *xp;
+  double **gp, **gm;
+  double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
+  int theta;
+
+  varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+  xp=vector(1,npar);
+  dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
+  doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);
   
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-      fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
+      fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
 
   if(estepm < stepm){
@@ -1582,24 +1598,114 @@ void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+    gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);
+    gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
+ 
+
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+
+    /* Computing Variances of health expectancies */
+
+     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
+	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      }
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
+  
+      cptj=0;
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+	for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
+	  cptj=cptj+1;
+	  for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+	    gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+	  }
+	}
+      }
+     
+     
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) 
+	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
+      
+      cptj=0;
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+	  cptj=cptj+1;
+	  for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+	    gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+	  }
+	}
+      }
+     
+   
+
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate*2; j++)
+	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+	  gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
+	}
+
+     } 
+   
+/* End theta */
+
+     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
+
+     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate*2;j++)
+	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+	trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+
+
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)
+      for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)
+	varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
+
+     printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
+    for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
+      for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
+	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,nlstate*2,gradg[k]);
+	for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)
+	  for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)
+	    varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+      }
+    }
+
+     
+    /* Computing expectancies */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
 	for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
 	  eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
-	  /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+	  
+/* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+
 	}
+
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
+    cptj=0;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-	fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age]);
+	cptj++;
+	fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );
       }
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
+   
+    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+    free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);
+    free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   }
+  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);
+  free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int)fage);
 }
 
 /************ Variance ******************/
@@ -1618,7 +1724,7 @@ void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***
   double age,agelim, hf;
   int theta;
 
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");
+  fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
@@ -1753,7 +1859,7 @@ void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
   double age,agelim;
   int theta;
    
-  fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");
+  fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalence's limit\n");
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
@@ -1822,9 +1928,9 @@ void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
 }
 
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
-void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)
+void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)
 {
-  int i, j;
+  int i, j, i1, k1, j1, z1;
   int k=0, cptcode;
   double **dnewm,**doldm;
   double *xp;
@@ -1839,99 +1945,128 @@ void varprob(char fileres[], double **ma
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
   }
-  printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+  printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
   
+fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and standard deviation in parentheses\n");
+  fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
+  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+      fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
+
+
+  fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
+
 
   xp=vector(1,npar);
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
   
   cov[1]=1;
-  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
-    cov[2]=age;
-    gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);
-    trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);
-    gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-    gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+  j=cptcoveff;
+  if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+  j1=0;
+  for(k1=1; k1<=1;k1++){
+    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ 
+    j1++;
+
+    if  (cptcovn>0) {
+      fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
+      for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+      fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#");
+    }
     
-    for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-     
-      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-   
-      k=0;
-      for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){
-	for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-	   k=k+1;
-	  gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
+	cov[2]=age;
+	for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+	  cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
+	  
 	}
-      }
-
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+	for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+	for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+	  cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+	
+	gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);
+	trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);
+	gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+	gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     
-
-      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-      k=0;
-      for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
-	for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-	  k=k+1;
-	  gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
-	}
-      }
+	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+	  for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+	    xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+	  
+	  pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+	  
+	  k=0;
+	  for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){
+	    for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+	      k=k+1;
+	      gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+	    }
+	  }
+	  
+	  for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+	    xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+    
+	  pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+	  k=0;
+	  for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
+	    for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+	      k=k+1;
+	      gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+	    }
+	  }
      
-       for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
-	   gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];  
-    }
-
-     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
-      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-      trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
- 
-     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);
-
-     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+	  for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
+	    gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];  
+	}
 
-     k=0;
-     for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
-       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-	 k=k+1;
-	 gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+	for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+	  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+	    trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+	
+	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);
+	
+	pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+	
+	k=0;
+	for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
+	  for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+	    k=k+1;
+	    gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+	  }
 	}
-     }
      
      /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){
-       
-
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
      }*/
 
-  fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-
-  for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){
-    if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);
-if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);
-  }
+	fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
 
+	for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++)
+	  fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e (%.3e) ",gm[i],sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+  
+      }
+    }
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-}
- free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-fclose(ficresprob);
-
+  }
+  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+  fclose(ficresprob);
+  
 }
 
 /******************* Printing html file ***********/
 void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
- int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
- int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char optionfile[], \
- char optionfilehtm[],char rfileres[], char optionfilegnuplot[],\
- char version[], int popforecast, int estepm ){
+		  int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
+		  int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char optionfile[], \
+		  char optionfilehtm[],char rfileres[], char optionfilegnuplot[],\
+		  char version[], int popforecast, int estepm ,/* \ */
+		  double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
+		  double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   FILE *fichtm;
   /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
@@ -1942,25 +2077,30 @@ void printinghtml(char fileres[], char t
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
   }
 
- fprintf(fichtm,"<body> <font size=\"2\">Imach, Version %s </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n
+  fprintf(fichtm,"<body> <font size=\"2\">%s </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n
 Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n
 \n
 Total number of observations=%d <br>\n
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n
-<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> 
- <ul><li>Outputs files<br>\n
+<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">
+ <ul><li>Parameter files<br>\n
  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n
- - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n
- - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n
- - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>\n
- - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>\n
- - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>\n",version,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,estepm);
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
- - Parameter file with estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n
- - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\n
- - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\n
- - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\n",rfileres,rfileres, estepm, fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);
+ - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br></ul>\n",version,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot);
+
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li>Result files (first order: no variance)<br>\n
+ - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>\n
+ - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): 
+   <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>\n</li>", \
+  jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,fileres,fileres,stepm,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,estepm,fileres,fileres);
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li> Result files (second order: variances)<br>\n
+ - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"prob%s\">prob%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\n 
+ - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\n",rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres, estepm, fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);
 
  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n
  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n
@@ -1983,24 +2123,29 @@ fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");
 	   fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
 	 fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
-       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>
-<img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);     
+       /* Pij */
+       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before: pe%s%d1.png<br>
+<img src=\"pe%s%d1.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);     
+       /* Quasi-incidences */
+       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: pe%s%d2.png<br>
+<img src=\"pe%s%d2.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);     
+       /* Stable prevalence in each health state */
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
-	 fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>
-<img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
+	 fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br>
+<img src=\"p%s%d%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
        }
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident
-interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>
-<img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);  
+interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.png <br>
+<img src=\"v%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);  
      }
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>
-<img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.png <br>
+<img src=\"exp%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
      }
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and
-health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>
-<img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);
+health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.png<br>
+<img src=\"e%s%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");
    }
    }
@@ -2011,7 +2156,7 @@ fclose(fichtm);
 void printinggnuplot(char fileres[],char optionfilefiname[],char optionfile[],char optionfilegnuplot[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
 
   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
-
+  int ng;
   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp.txt");
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
@@ -2028,9 +2173,11 @@ m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
 
 #ifdef windows
-    fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
 #endif
 #ifdef unix
+fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres);
 #endif
 
@@ -2050,15 +2197,15 @@ for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
 }  
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
 #ifdef unix
-fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");
+fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n");
 #endif
-fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
    }
   }
   /*2 eme*/
 
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
-    fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);
+    fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
     
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
       k=2*i;
@@ -2083,27 +2230,36 @@ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\"
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
     }
-    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);
   }
  
   /*3eme*/
 
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
-      k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
+      k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
+      /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
+fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
+fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+
+*/
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
-	fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
+	fprintf(ficgp," ,\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);
+
       } 
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
-    }
     }
+  }
  
   /* CV preval stat */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {
       k=3;
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"p%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
 
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
 	fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
@@ -2116,7 +2272,6 @@ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\"
 	fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
       }
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
     } 
   }  
   
@@ -2132,50 +2287,58 @@ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\"
 	}
       }
     }
-    }
+   }
 
-    for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
-  fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
-   i=1;
-   for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
-     k3=i;
-     for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
-       if (k != k2){
-    	fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
-ij=1;
-	for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
-	  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
-	    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
-	    ij++;
-	  }
-	  else
-	  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
-	}
-	  fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
-	
-	for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
-	  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
-ij=1;
-	  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-	  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
-	    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
-	    ij++;
-	  }
-	  else
-	    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
-	  }
-	  fprintf(ficgp,")");
-	}
-	fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
-	if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
-	i=i+ncovmodel;
+   for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
+     for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk,ng); 
+       if (ng==2)
+	 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
+       else
+	 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+       i=1;
+       for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
+	 k3=i;
+	 for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
+	   if (k != k2){
+	     if(ng==2)
+	       fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",stepm/YEARM,i,i+1);
+	     else
+	       fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
+	     ij=1;
+	     for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
+	       if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
+		 fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
+		 ij++;
+	       }
+	       else
+		 fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+	     }
+	     fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
+	     
+	     for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
+	       fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
+	       ij=1;
+	       for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+		 if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
+		   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
+		   ij++;
+		 }
+		 else
+		   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+	       }
+	       fprintf(ficgp,")");
+	     }
+	     fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+	     if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
+	     i=i+ncovmodel;
+	   }
+	 }
        }
      }
    }
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk); 
-   }
-   
-  fclose(ficgp);
+   fclose(ficgp);
 }  /* end gnuplot */
 
 
@@ -2493,7 +2656,7 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab; 
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
   int hstepm, nhstepm;
-  double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1;
+  double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1, calagedate;
 
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
   double ftolpl=FTOL;
@@ -2511,7 +2674,7 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;
   
 
-  char version[80]="Imach version 0.8a, March 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";
+  char version[80]="Imach version 0.8e, May 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
 
 
@@ -2751,11 +2914,10 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
     }*/
- 
-  /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+   /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
      if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
-     printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}
-  */
+     printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
+  
  
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/
   Tvar=ivector(1,15); 
@@ -3123,7 +3285,7 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
 
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/
 
-  printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,optionfile,optionfilehtm,rfileres,optionfilegnuplot,version,popforecast,estepm);
+  printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,optionfile,optionfilehtm,rfileres,optionfilegnuplot,version,popforecast,estepm,jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
 
   
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/
@@ -3207,20 +3369,20 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
 	    for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
 	      fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
 	  fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
-	  for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	   for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
 	    fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
 	    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
 	      for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
 		fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
 	    fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
-	  }
+	     }
 	  free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
 	  fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
 	}
     }
   }
 
-  /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/
+  varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);
 
   fclose(ficrespij);
 
@@ -3229,9 +3391,7 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
   if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){
     prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);
     if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);
-    free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
-    free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
-    free_vector(weight,1,n);}
+  } 
   else{
     erreur=108;
     printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);
@@ -3261,6 +3421,8 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
   }
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+  calagedate=-1;
+prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);
 
   k=0;
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
@@ -3283,7 +3445,8 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
 
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-      evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm);  
+      evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);  
+ 
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
        varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm);
@@ -3306,21 +3469,25 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
 	for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
 	  for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
 	    epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
+	    /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
 	  }
 	  epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
 	}
+
 	for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
 	  for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
 	    vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
-	fprintf(ficrest," %7.2f (%7.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+	fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
 	for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
-	  fprintf(ficrest," %7.2f (%7.2f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+	  fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
 	}
 	fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
       }
     }
   }
-
+free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+    free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+    free_vector(weight,1,n);
   fclose(ficreseij);
   fclose(ficresvij);
   fclose(ficrest);