Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.72 and 1.125

version 1.72, 2003/03/28 13:33:56 version 1.125, 2006/04/04 15:20:31
Line 1 Line 1
 /* $Id$  /* $Id$
    Interpolated Markov Chain    $State$
     $Log$
   Short summary of the programme:    Revision 1.125  2006/04/04 15:20:31  lievre
       Errors in calculation of health expectancies. Age was not initialized.
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from    Forecasting file added.
   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a  
   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are    Revision 1.124  2006/03/22 17:13:53  lievre
   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the    Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma).
   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a    The log-likelihood is printed in the log file
   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change  
   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are    Revision 1.123  2006/03/20 10:52:43  brouard
   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a    * imach.c (Module): <title> changed, corresponds to .htm file
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the    name. <head> headers where missing.
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The  
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the    * imach.c (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
   probability to be observed in state j at the second wave    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore    otherwise the weight is truncated).
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more    1.
   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program    Version 0.98g
   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites  
   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the    Revision 1.122  2006/03/20 09:45:41  brouard
   convergence.    (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
     English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple    otherwise the weight is truncated).
   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an    1.
   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into    Version 0.98g
   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.    
     Revision 1.121  2006/03/16 17:45:01  lievre
   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h    * imach.c (Module): Comments concerning covariates added
   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be  
   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate    * imach.c (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
   states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
   semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices  
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply    Revision 1.120  2006/03/16 15:10:38  lievre
   hPijx.    (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
     status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the stable prevalence.   
       Revision 1.119  2006/03/15 17:42:26  brouard
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).    (Module): Bug if status = -2, the loglikelihood was
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.    computed as likelihood omitting the logarithm. Version O.98e
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action  
   from the European Union.    Revision 1.118  2006/03/14 18:20:07  brouard
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    table of variances if popbased=1 .
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
   **********************************************************************/    (Module): Function pstamp added
      (Module): Version 0.98d
 #include <math.h>  
 #include <stdio.h>    Revision 1.117  2006/03/14 17:16:22  brouard
 #include <stdlib.h>    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
 #include <unistd.h>    table of variances if popbased=1 .
     (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
 #define MAXLINE 256    (Module): Function pstamp added
 #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"    (Module): Version 0.98d
 /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/  
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80    Revision 1.116  2006/03/06 10:29:27  brouard
 /*#define DEBUG*/    (Module): Variance-covariance wrong links and
 #define windows    varian-covariance of ej. is needed (Saito).
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */  
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    Revision 1.115  2006/02/27 12:17:45  brouard
     (Module): One freematrix added in mlikeli! 0.98c
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */  
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    Revision 1.114  2006/02/26 12:57:58  brouard
     (Module): Some improvements in processing parameter
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    filename with strsep.
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */  
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */    Revision 1.113  2006/02/24 14:20:24  brouard
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    (Module): Memory leaks checks with valgrind and:
 #define MAXN 20000    datafile was not closed, some imatrix were not freed and on matrix
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */    allocation too.
 #define AGESUP 130  
 #define AGEBASE 40    Revision 1.112  2006/01/30 09:55:26  brouard
 #ifdef windows    (Module): Back to gnuplot.exe instead of wgnuplot.exe
 #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'  
 #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'    Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
 #else    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
 #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'    (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
 #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'    can be a simple dot '.'.
 #endif  
     Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
 char version[80]="Imach version 0.93, February 2003, INED-EUROREVES ";    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
 int erreur; /* Error number */  
 int nvar;    Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
 int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;    (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
 int npar=NPARMAX;  
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */    Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */    Gnuplot problem appeared...
 int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */    To be fixed
 int popbased=0;  
     Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */    Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */  
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */    Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
 int mle, weightopt;    Some cleaning and links added in html output
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */  
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
 int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between    *** empty log message ***
            * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */  
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;    that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
 FILE *ficlog;    (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
 FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;    contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
 FILE *ficresprobmorprev;    health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
 FILE *fichtm; /* Html File */    the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
 FILE *ficreseij;  
 char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
 FILE  *ficresvij;    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
 char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];  
 FILE  *ficresvpl;    Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
 char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
 char title[MAXLINE];  
 char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
 char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];    Fix on curr_time
   
 char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
 char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
 char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];  
 char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
 char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];    *** empty log message ***
   
 char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
     New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
 #define NR_END 1    directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
 #define FREE_ARG char*    state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
     other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
 #define NRANSI     cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
 #define ITMAX 200     from other sources like vital statistic data.
   
 #define TOL 2.0e-4     The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
   
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660     Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10     former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);   
     The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
 #define GOLD 1.618034     the slope with 95% confident intervals.
 #define GLIMIT 100.0   
 #define TINY 1.0e-20     Current limitations:
     A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))  
       Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)    suppressed.
   
 static double sqrarg;    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}     rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
   
 int imx;     Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
 int stepm;    * imach.c (Repository):
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
     matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
 int estepm;  
 /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
     Just cleaning
 int m,nb;  
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
 double **pmmij, ***probs;    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
 double dateintmean=0;    (Module): Version 0.96b
   
 double *weight;    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
 int **s; /* Status */    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;  
     Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
     helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
 /**************** split *************************/    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
 {  
   char  *ss;                            /* pointer */    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
   int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
     mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );  
   ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
   if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
     /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
       printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/    of the covariance matrix to be input.
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */  
     extern char *getwd( );    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
     if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {  
 #else    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
     extern char *getcwd( );    Version 0.96
   
     if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
 #endif    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
       return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );    routine fileappend.
     }  
     strcpy( name, path );               /* we've got it */    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
   } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
     ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
     l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
     if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
     strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
     strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */    interview.
     dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
   }    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
   l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
 #ifdef windows    truncation)
   if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
 #else  
   if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
 #endif    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
   ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
   ss++;    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
   strcpy(ext,ss);                       /* save extension */    parcimony.
   l1= strlen( name);    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
   l2= strlen(ss)+1;  
   strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
   finame[l1-l2]= 0;    *** empty log message ***
   return( 0 );                          /* we're done */  
 }    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
     Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
   
 /******************************************/  */
   /*
 void replace(char *s, char*t)     Interpolated Markov Chain
 {  
   int i;    Short summary of the programme:
   int lg=20;   
   i=0;    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
   lg=strlen(t);    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
     (s[i] = t[i]);    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
   }    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
 }    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
     computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
 {    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
   int i,j=0;    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
   int lg=20;    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
   i=0;    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
   lg=strlen(s);    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
   }    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
   return j;    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
 }    convergence.
   
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
 {    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
   /* cuts string t into u and v where u is ended by char occ excluding it    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
      and v is after occ excluding it too : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",2)    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
      gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
   int i,lg,j,p=0;  
   i=0;    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
   }    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
     semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
   lg=strlen(t);    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
     (u[j] = t[j]);    hPijx.
   }  
      u[p]='\0';    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
     of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence.
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {   
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
   }             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
 }    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
     from the European Union.
 /********************** nrerror ********************/    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
     software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
 void nrerror(char error_text[])    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
 {  
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
   exit(EXIT_FAILURE);   
 }    **********************************************************************/
 /*********************** vector *******************/  /*
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)    main
 {    read parameterfile
   double *v;    read datafile
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    concatwav
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");    freqsummary
   return v-nl+NR_END;    if (mle >= 1)
 }      mlikeli
     print results files
 /************************ free vector ******************/    if mle==1
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)       computes hessian
 {    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));        begin-prev-date,...
 }    open gnuplot file
     open html file
 /************************ivector *******************************/    period (stable) prevalence
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)     for age prevalim()
 {    h Pij x
   int *v;    variance of p varprob
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");    health expectancies
   return v-nl+NR_END;    Variance-covariance of DFLE
 }    prevalence()
      movingaverage()
 /******************free ivector **************************/    varevsij()
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
 {    total life expectancies
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    Variance of period (stable) prevalence
 }   end
   */
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/  
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)   
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */   
 {    
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;   #include <math.h>
   int **m;   #include <stdio.h>
     #include <stdlib.h>
   /* allocate pointers to rows */   #include <string.h>
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));   #include <unistd.h>
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");   
   m += NR_END;   #include <limits.h>
   m -= nrl;   #include <sys/types.h>
     #include <sys/stat.h>
     #include <errno.h>
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */   extern int errno;
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));   
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");   /* #include <sys/time.h> */
   m[nrl] += NR_END;   #include <time.h>
   m[nrl] -= ncl;   #include "timeval.h"
     
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;   /* #include <libintl.h> */
     /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */   
   return m;   #define MAXLINE 256
 }   
   #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
       int **m;  
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;   #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */   #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
 {   
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));   #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));   #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
 }   
   #define NINTERVMAX 8
 /******************* matrix *******************************/  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
 {  #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;  #define MAXN 20000
   double **m;  #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
   #define AGESUP 130
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  #define AGEBASE 40
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  #define AGEGOMP 10. /* Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
   m += NR_END;  #ifdef UNIX
   m -= nrl;  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
   #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  #else
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
   #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  #endif
   return m;  
 }  /* $Id$ */
   /* $State$ */
 /*************************free matrix ************************/  
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  char version[]="Imach version 0.98g, March 2006, INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite ";
 {  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$";
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  char strstart[80];
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
 }  int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
   int nvar;
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/  int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)  int npar=NPARMAX;
 {  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
   double ***m;  int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
   int popbased=0;
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
   m += NR_END;  int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
   m -= nrl;  int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
   int ijmin, ijmax; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  int mle, weightopt;
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
   int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
              * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;  FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)   FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;  int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
     double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {  long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)   char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
   }  FILE *ficresilk;
   return m;  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
 }  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
   FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/  FILE *ficreseij;
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  FILE *ficresstdeij;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));  char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  FILE *ficrescveij;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
 }  FILE  *ficresvij;
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
 /***************** f1dim *************************/  FILE  *ficresvpl;
 extern int ncom;   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;  char title[MAXLINE];
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
    char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
 double f1dim(double x)   char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {   char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
   int j;   int  outcmd=0;
   double f;  
   double *xt;   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
    
   xt=vector(1,ncom);   char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
   return f;   
 }   char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
   
 /*****************brent *************************/  struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)   struct timezone tzp;
 {   extern int gettimeofday();
   int iter;   struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
   double a,b,d,etemp;  long time_value;
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;  extern long time();
   double ftemp;  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;   
   double e=0.0;   char *endptr;
    long lval;
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);   double dval;
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);   
   x=w=v=bx;   #define NR_END 1
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);   #define FREE_ARG char*
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {   #define FTOL 1.0e-10
     xm=0.5*(a+b);   
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);   #define NRANSI
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/  #define ITMAX 200
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);  
     fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);  #define TOL 2.0e-4
 #ifdef DEBUG  
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);  #define CGOLD 0.3819660
     fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);
 #endif  
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){   #define GOLD 1.618034
       *xmin=x;   #define GLIMIT 100.0
       return fx;   #define TINY 1.0e-20
     }   
     ftemp=fu;  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {   #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);   #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);    
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;   #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
       q=2.0*(q-r);   #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;   
       q=fabs(q);   static double sqrarg;
       etemp=e;   #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
       e=d;   #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))   int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));   
       else {   int imx;
         d=p/q;   int stepm=1;
         u=x+d;   /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)   
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);   int estepm;
       }   /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
     } else {   
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));   int m,nb;
     }   long *num;
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));   int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
     fu=(*f)(u);   double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
     if (fu <= fx) {   double **pmmij, ***probs;
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;   double *ageexmed,*agecens;
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)   double dateintmean=0;
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)   
         } else {   double *weight;
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;   int **s; /* Status */
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {   double *agedc, **covar, idx;
             v=w;   int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
             w=u;   double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
             fv=fw;   
             fw=fu;   double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {   double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
             v=u;   
             fv=fu;   /**************** split *************************/
           }   static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
         }   {
   }     /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");        the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
   *xmin=x;     */
   return fx;     char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
 }     int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
   
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/    l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
     if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,     ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
             double (*func)(double))     if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
 {       strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;      /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
   double fu;         printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
        /* get current working directory */
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);       /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
   if (*fb > *fa) {         return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)       }
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)       /* got dirc from getcwd*/
       }       printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);     } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);       ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
   while (*fb > *fc) {       l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);       strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);       printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {     }
       fu=(*func)(u);     /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {     l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
       fu=(*func)(u);     if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
       if (fu < *fc) {       dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))       dirc[l1+1] = 0;
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))       printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
           }     }
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {     ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
       u=ulim;     if (ss >0){
       fu=(*func)(u);       ss++;
     } else {       strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);       l1= strlen( name);
       fu=(*func)(u);       l2= strlen(ss)+1;
     }       strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)       finame[l1-l2]= 0;
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)     }
       }   
 }     return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
   }
 /*************** linmin ************************/  
   
 int ncom;   /******************************************/
 double *pcom,*xicom;  
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);   void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
    {
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))     int i;
 {     int lg=0;
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,     i=0;
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);     lg=strlen(t);
   double f1dim(double x);     for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,       (s[i] = t[i]);
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));       if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
   int j;     }
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;   }
   double fx,fb,fa;  
    int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
   ncom=n;   {
   pcom=vector(1,n);     int i,j=0;
   xicom=vector(1,n);     int lg=20;
   nrfunc=func;     i=0;
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {     lg=strlen(s);
     pcom[j]=p[j];     for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
     xicom[j]=xi[j];     if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
   }     }
   ax=0.0;     return j;
   xx=1.0;   }
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);   
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);   void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
 #ifdef DEBUG  {
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);    /* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before first occurence of char 'occ'
   fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);       and v starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
 #endif       gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {     int i,lg,j,p=0;
     xi[j] *= xmin;     i=0;
     p[j] += xi[j];     for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
   }       if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);     }
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);   
 }     lg=strlen(t);
     for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
 /*************** powell ************************/      (u[j] = t[j]);
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,     }
             double (*func)(double []))        u[p]='\0';
 {   
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,      for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
               double (*func)(double []));       if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
   int i,ibig,j;     }
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;  }
   double fp,fptt;  
   double *xits;  /********************** nrerror ********************/
   pt=vector(1,n);   
   ptt=vector(1,n);   void nrerror(char error_text[])
   xit=vector(1,n);   {
   xits=vector(1,n);     fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
   *fret=(*func)(p);     fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];     exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {   }
     fp=(*fret);   /*********************** vector *******************/
     ibig=0;   double *vector(int nl, int nh)
     del=0.0;   {
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);    double *v;
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)     if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);    return v-nl+NR_END;
     fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12f",i, p[i]);  }
     printf("\n");  
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");  /************************ free vector ******************/
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {   void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];   {
       fptt=(*fret);     free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
 #ifdef DEBUG  }
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);  
       fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);  /************************ivector *******************************/
 #endif  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  {
       fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);    int *v;
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);     v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {     if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));     return v-nl+NR_END;
         ibig=i;   }
       }   
 #ifdef DEBUG  /******************free ivector **************************/
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));  {
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);  }
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);  
         fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);  /************************lvector *******************************/
       }  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {  {
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);    long *v;
         fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
       }    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
       printf("\n");    return v-nl+NR_END;
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");  }
 #endif  
     }   /******************free lvector **************************/
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
 #ifdef DEBUG  {
       int k[2],l;    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
       k[0]=1;  }
       k[1]=-1;  
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
       fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);  {
         fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;
       }    int **m;
       printf("\n");   
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");    /* allocate pointers to rows */
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];    m += NR_END;
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);    m -= nrl;
           fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);   
         }   
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */
         fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
       }    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
 #endif    m[nrl] += NR_END;
     m[nrl] -= ncl;
    
       free_vector(xit,1,n);     for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
       free_vector(xits,1,n);    
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);     /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */
       free_vector(pt,1,n);     return m;
       return;   }
     }   
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");   /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {   void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];         int **m;
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];         long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;
       pt[j]=p[j];        /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */
     }   {
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);     free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     if (fptt < fp) {     free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);   }
       if (t < 0.0) {   
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);   /******************* matrix *******************************/
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {   double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];   {
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];     long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
         }    double **m;
 #ifdef DEBUG  
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
         fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++){    m += NR_END;
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);    m -= nrl;
           fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);  
         }    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
         printf("\n");    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");    m[nrl] += NR_END;
 #endif    m[nrl] -= ncl;
       }  
     }     for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   }     return m;
 }     /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1])
      */
 /**** Prevalence limit (stable prevalence)  ****************/  }
   
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)  /*************************free matrix ************************/
 {  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit  {
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   int i, ii,j,k;  }
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;  
   double **matprod2();  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
   double **newm;  {
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
     double ***m;
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)  
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
     }    m += NR_END;
     m -= nrl;
    cov[1]=1.;  
      m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){    m[nrl] += NR_END;
     newm=savm;    m[nrl] -= ncl;
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */  
      cov[2]=agefin;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
     
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
         /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
       }    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];   
     for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);    }
     return m;
     savm=oldm;    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
     oldm=newm;             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
     maxmax=0.;    */
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){  }
       min=1.;  
       max=0.;  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
         sumnew=0;  {
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);  }
       }  
       maxmin=max-min;  /*************** function subdirf ***********/
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
     }  {
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       return prlim;    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
     }    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
   }    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
 }    return tmpout;
   }
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/   
   /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
 {  {
   double s1, s2;   
   /*double t34;*/    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
     strcat(tmpout,"/");
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){    strcat(tmpout,preop);
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){    return tmpout;
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/  }
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
       }  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
       ps[i][j]=s2;  {
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/   
     }    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){    strcat(tmpout,"/");
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];    strcat(tmpout,preop);
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
       }    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       ps[i][j]=s2;    return tmpout;
     }  }
   }  
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/  /***************** f1dim *************************/
   extern int ncom;
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
      s1=0;  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)   
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  double f1dim(double x)
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  {
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);    int j;
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);    double f;
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)    double *xt;
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];   
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)    xt=vector(1,ncom);
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */    f=(*nrfunc)(xt);
   } /* end i */    free_vector(xt,1,ncom);
     return f;
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  }
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  
       ps[ii][jj]=0;  /*****************brent *************************/
       ps[ii][ii]=1;  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)
     }  {
   }    int iter;
     double a,b,d,etemp;
     double fu,fv,fw,fx;
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){    double ftemp;
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);    double e=0.0;
    }   
     printf("\n ");    a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);
     }    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/    x=w=v=bx;
 /*    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {
   goto end;*/      xm=0.5*(a+b);
     return ps;      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);
 }      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
       printf(".");fflush(stdout);
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
   #ifdef DEBUG
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
 {      fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */  #endif
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized       if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns        *xmin=x;
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */        return fx;
   long i, j, k;      }
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)      ftemp=fu;
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)      if (fabs(e) > tol1) {
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);
         p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;
   return out;        q=2.0*(q-r);
 }        if (q > 0.0) p = -p;
         q=fabs(q);
         etemp=e;
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/        e=d;
         if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
 {        else {
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over           d=p/q;
      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until          u=x+d;
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying           if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)
      nhstepm*hstepm matrices.             d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step         }
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big       } else {
      for the memory).        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be       }
      included manually here.       u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));
       fu=(*f)(u);
      */      if (fu <= fx) {
         if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;
   int i, j, d, h, k;        SHFT(v,w,x,u)
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];          SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)
   double **newm;          } else {
             if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */            if (fu <= fw || w == x) {
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)              v=w;
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){              w=u;
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);              fv=fw;
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);              fw=fu;
     }            } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */              v=u;
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){              fv=fu;
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){            }
       newm=savm;          }
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */    }
       cov[1]=1.;    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;    *xmin=x;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];    return fx;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)  }
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,
               double (*func)(double))
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/  {
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,     double fu;
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));   
       savm=oldm;    *fa=(*func)(*ax);
       oldm=newm;    *fb=(*func)(*bx);
     }    if (*fb > *fa) {
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {        SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];        }
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);
          */    *fc=(*func)(*cx);
       }    while (*fb > *fc) {
   } /* end h */      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);
   return po;      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);
 }      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/
         (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));
       ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {
 double func( double *x)        fu=(*func)(u);
 {      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;        fu=(*func)(u);
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];        if (fu < *fc) {
   double **out;          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */            SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */            }
   int s1, s2;      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {
   double bbh, survp;        u=ulim;
   long ipmx;        fu=(*func)(u);
   /*extern weight */      } else {
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/        fu=(*func)(u);
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)       }
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)
   */        SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)
   cov[1]=1.;        }
   }
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;  
   /*************** linmin ************************/
   if(mle==1){  
     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){  int ncom;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];  double *pcom,*xicom;
       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){  double (*nrfunc)(double []);
         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)   
           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))
             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  {
             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,
           }                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);
         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){    double f1dim(double x);
           newm=savm;    void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,
           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;                double *fc, double (*func)(double));
           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {    int j;
             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];    double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
           }    double fx,fb,fa;
           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,   
                        1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));    ncom=n;
           savm=oldm;    pcom=vector(1,n);
           oldm=newm;    xicom=vector(1,n);
         } /* end mult */    nrfunc=func;
           for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
         /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */      pcom[j]=p[j];
         /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm.      xicom[j]=xi[j];
          * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay     }
          * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to     ax=0.0;
          * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now    xx=1.0;
          * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);
          * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);
          * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way  #ifdef DEBUG
          * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies    printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
          * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
          * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.  #endif
          * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
          */      xi[j] *= xmin;
         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];      p[j] += xi[j];
         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];    }
         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;     free_vector(xicom,1,n);
         /* bias is positive if real duration    free_vector(pcom,1,n);
          * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.  }
          */  
         /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
         if( s2 > nlstate){   {
           /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known then the contribution    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
              to the likelihood is the probability to die between last step unit time and current     days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
              step unit time, which is also the differences between probability to die before dh     sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
              and probability to die before dh-stepm .     hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
              In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
         as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
         health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
         and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was    sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
         to consider that at each interview the state was recorded    return ascdiff;
         (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we  }
         introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified  
         the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new  /*************** powell ************************/
         contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,
         stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview              double (*func)(double []))
         and month of death but the probability to survive from last  {
         interview up to one month before death multiplied by the    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,
         probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris                double (*func)(double []));
         Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased    int i,ibig,j;
         mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
         which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%    double fp,fptt;
         lower mortality.    double *xits;
           */    int niterf, itmp;
           lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);  
         }else{    pt=vector(1,n);
           lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */    ptt=vector(1,n);
           /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */    xit=vector(1,n);
         }     xits=vector(1,n);
         /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/    *fret=(*func)(p);
         /*if(lli ==000.0)*/    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];
         /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {
         ipmx +=1;      fp=(*fret);
         sw += weight[i];      ibig=0;
         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;      del=0.0;
       } /* end of wave */      last_time=curr_time;
     } /* end of individual */      (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
   }  else if(mle==2){      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec); fflush(ficlog);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];  /*     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec); */
       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      }
           }      printf("\n");
         for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           newm=savm;      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;      if(*iter <=3){
           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {        tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tm));
           }  /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,        forecast_time=curr_time;
                        1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
           savm=oldm;        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
           oldm=newm;          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
         } /* end mult */        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
               fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
         /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */        for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
         /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm.          forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
          * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay           tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
          * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to   /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
          * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
          * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product          itmp = strlen(strfor);
          * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the          if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
          * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
          * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
          * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
          * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.        }
          * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.       }
          */      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];
         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];        fptt=(*fret);
         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;   #ifdef DEBUG
         /* bias is positive if real duration        printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
          * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.        fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
          */  #endif
         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
         /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
         /*lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.-+bh)*out[s1][s2])); */ /* exponential interpolation */        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
         /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {
         /*if(lli ==000.0)*/          del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));
         /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */          ibig=i;
         ipmx +=1;        }
         sw += weight[i];  #ifdef DEBUG
         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
       } /* end of wave */        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
     } /* end of individual */        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){        }
         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){          printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);          fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        }
           }        printf("\n");
         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           newm=savm;  #endif
           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;      }
           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];  #ifdef DEBUG
           }        int k[2],l;
           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,        k[0]=1;
                        1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));        k[1]=-1;
           savm=oldm;        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
           oldm=newm;        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
         } /* end mult */        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
                 printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
         /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
         /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm.        }
          * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay         printf("\n");
          * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
          * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
          * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
          * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
          * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
          * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies            fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
          * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .          }
          * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
          * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.           fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
          */        }
         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];  #endif
         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];  
         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;   
         /* bias is positive if real duration        free_vector(xit,1,n);
          * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.        free_vector(xits,1,n);
          */        free_vector(ptt,1,n);
         /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); */ /* linear interpolation */        free_vector(pt,1,n);
         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */        return;
         /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/      }
         /*if(lli ==000.0)*/      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");
         /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
         ipmx +=1;        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];
         sw += weight[i];        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];
         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;        pt[j]=p[j];
       } /* end of wave */      }
     } /* end of individual */      fptt=(*func)(ptt);
   }else{  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */      if (fptt < fp) {
     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];        if (t < 0.0) {
       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];
             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);            xi[j][n]=xit[j];
             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);          }
           }  #ifdef DEBUG
         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
           newm=savm;          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];            fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
           }          }
                   printf("\n");
           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                        1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  #endif
           savm=oldm;        }
           oldm=newm;      }
         } /* end mult */    }
         }
         lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */  
         ipmx +=1;  /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
         sw += weight[i];  
         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
       } /* end of wave */  {
     } /* end of individual */    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
   } /* End of if */       matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];  
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */    int i, ii,j,k;
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
   return -l;    double **matprod2();
 }    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
     double **newm;
     double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/  
     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
 {        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   int i,j, iter;      }
   double **xi,*delti;  
   double fret;     cov[1]=1.;
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);   
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      newm=savm;
   printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);       cov[2]=agefin;
    
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));          /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
         }
 }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))  
 {        /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
   double **hess;        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
   int i, j,jk;      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
   int *indx;  
       savm=oldm;
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);      oldm=newm;
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);      maxmax=0.;
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;        min=1.;
         max=0.;
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
           sumnew=0;
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
   fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
     fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);        }
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);        maxmin=max-min;
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/      }
   }      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
           return prlim;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {      }
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {    }
       if (j>i) {   }
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);  
         fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);  
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];      double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/  {
       }    double s1, s2;
     }    /*double t34;*/
   }    int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
   printf("\n");  
   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j<i;j++){
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");          for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
   fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");            /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
               s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);          }
   x=vector(1,npar);          ps[i][j]=s2;
   indx=ivector(1,npar);  /*      printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        }
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);          for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
             s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2); */
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;          }
     x[j]=1;          ps[i][j]=s2;
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);        }
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){       }
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];      /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
     }     
   }      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
         s1=0;
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {         for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {           s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);        ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
     }          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
     printf("\n");        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
   }        /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
       } /* end i */
   /* Recompute Inverse */     
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)      for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];        for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);          ps[ii][jj]=0;
           ps[ii][ii]=1;
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");        }
       }
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {     
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;  
     x[j]=1;  /*        for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);  /*       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){   /*         printf("ddd %lf ",ps[ii][jj]); */
       y[i][j]=x[i];  /*       } */
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);  /*       printf("\n "); */
       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);  /*        } */
     }  /*        printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]); */
     printf("\n");         /*
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");        for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
   }        goto end;*/
   */      return ps;
   }
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);  
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
   free_vector(x,1,npar);  
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);  {
     /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
        b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
 }    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized
        before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])    long i, j, k;
 {    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
   int i;      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
   int l=1, lmax=20;        for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
   double k1,k2;          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];  
   double res;    return out;
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;  }
   double fx;  
   int k=0,kmax=10;  
   double l1;  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
   
   fx=func(x);  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  {
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
     l1=pow(10,l);       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
     delts=delt;       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){       nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
       delt = delta*(l1*k);       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big
       k1=func(p2)-fx;       for the memory).
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be
       k2=func(p2)-fx;       included manually here.
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */  
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */       */
         
 #ifdef DEBUG    int i, j, d, h, k;
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);    double **newm;
 #endif  
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
         k=kmax;      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       }        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;      }
       }    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){     for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
         delts=delt;      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
       }        newm=savm;
     }        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
   }        cov[1]=1.;
   delti[theta]=delts;        cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
   return res;         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
 }          cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
 {  
   int i;  
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   int k;                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
         savm=oldm;
   fx=func(x);        oldm=newm;
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {      }
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
     k1=func(p2)-fx;          /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
              */
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;        }
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    } /* end h */
     k2=func(p2)-fx;    return po;
     }
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;  
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;  
     k3=func(p2)-fx;  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
     double func( double *x)
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;  {
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
     k4=func(p2)-fx;    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */    double **out;
 #ifdef DEBUG    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);    int s1, s2;
 #endif    double bbh, survp;
   }    long ipmx;
   return res;    /*extern weight */
 }    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
     /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)       printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
 {     */
   int i,imax,j,k;     cov[1]=1.;
   double big,dum,sum,temp;   
   double *vv;     for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
    
   vv=vector(1,n);     if(mle==1){
   *d=1.0;       for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     big=0.0;         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)           for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;             for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");               oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     vv[i]=1.0/big;               savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   }             }
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {           for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {             newm=savm;
       sum=a[i][j];             cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];             for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       a[i][j]=sum;               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
     }             }
     big=0.0;             out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {                          1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
       sum=a[i][j];             savm=oldm;
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)             oldm=newm;
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];           } /* end mult */
       a[i][j]=sum;        
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {           /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
         big=dum;           /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
         imax=i;            * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay
       }            * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to
     }            * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
     if (j != imax) {            * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {            * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
         dum=a[imax][k];            * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];            * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
         a[j][k]=dum;            * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
       }            * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
       *d = -(*d);            * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.
       vv[imax]=vv[j];            */
     }           s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     indx[j]=imax;           s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;           bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
     if (j != n) {           /* bias bh is positive if real duration
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);            * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;            */
     }           /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
   }           if( s2 > nlstate){
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known
 ;               then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to
 }                die between last step unit time and current  step unit time,
                which is also equal to probability to die before dh
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])                minus probability to die before dh-stepm .
 {                In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;           as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
   double sum;           health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
            and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {           to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
     ip=indx[i];           (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
     sum=b[ip];           introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
     b[ip]=b[i];           the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
     if (ii)           contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];           stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
     else if (sum) ii=i;           and month of death but the probability to survive from last
     b[i]=sum;           interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
   }           probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {           Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
     sum=b[i];           mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];           which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];           lower mortality.
   }             */
 }             lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   
 /************ Frequencies ********************/  
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)          } else if  (s2==-2) {
 {  /* Some frequencies */            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
                 survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;            /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
   int first;            lli= log(survp);
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */          }
   double *pp;         
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;          else if  (s2==-4) {
   FILE *ficresp;            for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)  
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
               lli= log(survp);
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);          }
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");          else if  (s2==-5) {
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)  
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);            lli= log(survp);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);          }
     exit(0);         
   }          else{
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
   j1=0;            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
             }
   j=cptcoveff;          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
           /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
   first=1;          ipmx +=1;
           sw += weight[i];
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){        } /* end of wave */
       j1++;      } /* end of individual */
       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);    }  else if(mle==2){
         scanf("%d", i);*/      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)          for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)          for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                     oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       dateintsum=0;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       k2cpt=0;            }
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
         bool=1;            newm=savm;
         if  (cptcovn>0) {            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)             for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
               bool=0;            }
         }            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         if (bool==1){                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){            savm=oldm;
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);            oldm=newm;
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {          } /* end mult */
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;       
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
               if (m<lastpass) {          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
               }          ipmx +=1;
                         sw += weight[i];
               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;        } /* end of wave */
                 k2cpt++;      } /* end of individual */
               }    }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
             }      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
           }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         }        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
       }          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                    for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
               savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       if  (cptcovn>0) {            }
         fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");           for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);            newm=savm;
         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
       }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);            }
       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                                1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){            savm=oldm;
         if(i==(int)agemax+3){            oldm=newm;
           fprintf(ficlog,"Total");          } /* end mult */
         }else{       
           if(first==1){          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
             first=0;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
             printf("See log file for details...\n");          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
           }          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
           fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);          ipmx +=1;
         }          sw += weight[i];
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)        } /* end of wave */
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];       } /* end of individual */
         }    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             if(first==1){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             }              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);            }
           }else{          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
             if(first==1)            newm=savm;
               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
           }              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         }            }
          
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];            savm=oldm;
         }            oldm=newm;
           } /* end mult */
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)       
           pos += pp[jk];          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           if(pos>=1.e-5){          if( s2 > nlstate){
             if(first==1)            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);          }else{
             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
           }else{          }
             if(first==1)          ipmx +=1;
               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);          sw += weight[i];
             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           }  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
           if( i <= (int) agemax){        } /* end of wave */
             if(pos>=1.e-5){      } /* end of individual */
               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
               /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
             }        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
             else          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           }              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         }              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                     }
         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)            newm=savm;
             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             if(first==1)            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
               fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);            }
             }         
         if(i <= (int) agemax)            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
         if(first==1)            savm=oldm;
           printf("Others in log...\n");            oldm=newm;
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");          } /* end mult */
       }       
     }          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   }          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;           lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
            ipmx +=1;
   fclose(ficresp);          sw += weight[i];
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
           } /* end of wave */
   /* End of Freq */      } /* end of individual */
 }    } /* End of if */
     for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
 /************ Prevalence ********************/    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
 void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
 {      return -l;
   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people  }
      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).  
      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
   */  double funcone( double *x)
    {
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
   double *pp;    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
   double pos;     double **out;
   double  y2; /* in fractional years */    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
     double llt;
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);    int s1, s2;
       double bbh, survp;
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    /*extern weight */
   j1=0;    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
       /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
   j=cptcoveff;    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
       */
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){    cov[1]=1.;
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){  
       j1++;    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
         
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         bool=1;            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         if  (cptcovn>0) {          }
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])           newm=savm;
               bool=0;          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         }           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
         if (bool==1) {             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/          }
             y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
             if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;          savm=oldm;
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;          oldm=newm;
               if (m<lastpass) {        } /* end mult */
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];       
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3)] += weight[i];         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
               }        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
             }        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
           } /* end selection of waves */        /* bias is positive if real duration
         }         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
       }         */
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){         if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)        } else if  (s2==-2) {
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
         }            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          lli= log(survp);
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)        }else if (mle==1){
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
         }        } else if(mle==2){
                   lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
         }          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
                 } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
                 } /* End of if */
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            ipmx +=1;
           if( i <= (int) agemax){        sw += weight[i];
             if(pos>=1.e-5){        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;  /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
             }        if(globpr){
           }          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
         }/* end jk */   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
       }/* end i */                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
     } /* end i1 */                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
   } /* end k1 */          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
             llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
               fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);          }
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
           }
 }  /* End of Freq */      } /* end of wave */
     } /* end of individual */
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
     /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
 {    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.      gipmx=ipmx;
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).      gsw=sw;
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i    }
      dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]    return -l;
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.  }
      */  
   
   int i, mi, m;  /*************** function likelione ***********/
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/  {
   int first;    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;       the selection of individuals/waves and
   double sum=0.;       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
   first=0;       Plotting could be done.
   jmin=1e+5;     */
   jmax=-1;    int k;
   jmean=0.;  
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
     mi=0;      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk");
     m=firstpass;      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
       if(s[m][i]>=1)        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
         mw[++mi][i]=m;        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
       if(m >=lastpass)      }
         break;      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
       else      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
         m++;      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
     }/* end while */      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++)
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */      fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */    }
          /* Only death is a correct wave */  
       mw[mi][i]=m;    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
     }    if(*globpri !=0){
       fclose(ficresilk);
     wav[i]=mi;      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
     if(mi==0){      fflush(fichtm);
       if(first==0){    }
         printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);    return;
         first=1;  }
       }  
       if(first==1){  
         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);  /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
       }  
     } /* end mi==0 */  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
   }  {
     int i,j, iter;
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){    double **xi;
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){    double fret;
       if (stepm <=0)    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
         dh[mi][i]=1;    /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
       else{    xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);         xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
           k=k+1;    strcpy(filerespow,"pow");
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
           sum=sum+j;      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
           /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
           /*      printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/    }
           /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
           }    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         }      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
         else{        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
           /*      printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/  
           k=k+1;    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;  
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;    free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */    fclose(ficrespow);
           sum=sum+j;    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
         }    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
         jk= j/stepm;    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
         jl= j -jk*stepm;  
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;  }
         if(mle <=1){   
           if(jl==0){  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
             dh[mi][i]=jk;  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
             bh[mi][i]=0;  {
           }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
                   * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */    double **hess;
             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;    int i, j,jk;
             bh[mi][i]=ju;    int *indx;
           }  
         }else{    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
           if(jl <= -ju){    double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
             dh[mi][i]=jk;    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
             bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
                                  * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.    double gompertz(double p[]);
                                  */    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
           }  
           else{    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
             bh[mi][i]=ju;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
           }      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
           if(dh[mi][i]==0){      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
             dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */     
             bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
             /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/     
           }      /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
         }          printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
       } /* end if mle */    }
     } /* end wave */   
   }    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
   jmean=sum/k;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);        if (j>i) {
   fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
  }          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
           hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/         
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
 {          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
           }
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;      }
   int cptcode=0;    }
   cptcoveff=0;     printf("\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;  
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum     a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                                modality*/     y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/    x=vector(1,npar);
       Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */    indx=ivector(1,npar);
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable       for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
                                        Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and     ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
                                        female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/  
     }    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {      x[j]=1;
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
     }      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
         matcov[i][j]=x[i];
     ij=1;       }
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {    }
       for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {  
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {    printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;     fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
           /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
                 for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
           ij++;        printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
         }        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;       }
       }        printf("\n");
     }       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   }      }
   
  for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;    /* Recompute Inverse */
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {       for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
    /* Listing of all covariables in staement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
    ij=Tvar[i];  
    Ndum[ij]++;    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
  }  
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
  ij=1;      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
  for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {      x[j]=1;
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
      Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
      ij++;        y[i][j]=x[i];
    }        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
  }        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
        }
  cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/      printf("\n");
 }      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     }
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/    */
   
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
     free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
 {    free_vector(x,1,npar);
   /* Health expectancies */    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
   double age, agelim, hf;  
   double ***p3mat,***varhe;  
   double **dnewm,**doldm;  }
   double *xp;  
   double **gp, **gm;  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
   int theta;  {
     int i;
   varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int) fage);    int l=1, lmax=20;
   xp=vector(1,npar);    double k1,k2;
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,npar);    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);    double res;
       double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");    double fx;
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");    int k=0,kmax=10;
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    double l1;
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);    fx=func(x);
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
   if(estepm < stepm){      l1=pow(10,l);
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);      delts=delt;
   }      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
   else  hstepm=estepm;           delt = delta*(l1*k);
   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example        k1=func(p2)-fx;
    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear         k2=func(p2)-fx;
    * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we         res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months       
    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear   #ifdef DEBUG
    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
   #endif
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.         if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim           k=kmax;
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.         }
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */          k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the        }
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if          delts=delt;
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same         }
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.      }
   */    }
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */     delti[theta]=delts;
     return res;
   agelim=AGESUP;   
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  }
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */  
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);   double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */   {
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/    int i;
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */    int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);    int k;
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);  
     fx=func(x);
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);        p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
        p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
       k1=func(p2)-fx;
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */   
       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
     /* Computing Variances of health expectancies */      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
       k2=func(p2)-fx;
      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){   
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
       }      k3=func(p2)-fx;
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);     
         p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
       cptj=0;      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){      k4=func(p2)-fx;
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){      res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
           cptj=cptj+1;  #ifdef DEBUG
           for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
             gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
           }  #endif
         }    }
       }    return res;
        }
        
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)   /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);    {
           int i,imax,j,k;
       cptj=0;    double big,dum,sum,temp;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){    double *vv;
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){   
           cptj=cptj+1;    vv=vector(1,n);
           for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){    *d=1.0;
             gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
           }      big=0.0;
         }      for (j=1;j<=n;j++)
       }        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate*2; j++)      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){      vv[i]=1.0/big;
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];    }
         }    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
      }       for (i=1;i<j;i++) {
            sum=a[i][j];
 /* End theta */        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
         a[i][j]=sum;
      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);      }
       big=0.0;
      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate*2;j++)        sum=a[i][j];
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)        for (k=1;k<j;k++)
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
              a[i][j]=sum;
         if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)          big=dum;
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)          imax=i;
         varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;        }
       }
      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);      if (j != imax) {
      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {
      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){          dum=a[imax][k];
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){          a[imax][k]=a[j][k];
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);          a[j][k]=dum;
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,nlstate*2,gradg[k]);        }
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)        *d = -(*d);
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)        vv[imax]=vv[j];
             varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;      }
       }      indx[j]=imax;
     }      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;
     /* Computing expectancies */      if (j != n) {
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){      }
           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;    }
               free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
 /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/  ;
   }
         }  
   void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );  {
     cptj=0;    int i,ii=0,ip,j;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    double sum;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){   
         cptj++;    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
         fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );      ip=indx[i];
       }      sum=b[ip];
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");      b[ip]=b[i];
          if (ii)
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);      else if (sum) ii=i;
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);      b[i]=sum;
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);    }
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {
   }      sum=b[i];
   printf("\n");      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");      b[i]=sum/a[i][i];
     }
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);  }
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);  
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
   free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int)fage);  {
 }    fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#%s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,fullversion,strstart);
   }
 /************ Variance ******************/  
 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav)  /************ Frequencies ********************/
 {  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
   /* Variance of health expectancies */  {  /* Some frequencies */
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/   
   /* double **newm;*/    int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
   double **dnewm,**doldm;    int first;
   double **dnewmp,**doldmp;    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;    double *pp, **prop;
   int k, cptcode;    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
   double *xp;    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
   double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */   
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
   double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
   double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */    strcpy(fileresp,"p");
   double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
   double ***p3mat;    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
   double age,agelim, hf;      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   double ***mobaverage;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
   int theta;      exit(0);
   char digit[4];    }
   char digitp[25];    freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
     j1=0;
   char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];   
     j=cptcoveff;
   if(popbased==1){    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     if(mobilav!=0)  
       strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");    first=1;
     else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");  
   }    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
   else       for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
     strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");        j1++;
         /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
   if (mobilav!=0) {          scanf("%d", i);*/
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){          for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
     }  
   }      for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev");           prop[i][m]=0;
   sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);       
   /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/        dateintsum=0;
   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */        k2cpt=0;
   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);          bool=1;
   if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {          if  (cptcovn>0) {
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])
   }                bool=0;
   printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);          }
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);          if (bool==1){
   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
   for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){              /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
   }                  if (m<lastpass) {
   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
     printf("Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);                }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);               
     exit(0);                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
   }                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
   else{                  k2cpt++;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");                }
   }                /*}*/
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL) {            }
     printf("Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);          }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);        }
     exit(0);         
   }        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
   else{        pstamp(ficresp);
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");        if  (cptcovn>0) {
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
   }          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
         }
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)       
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");          if(i==iagemax+3){
             fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
   xp=vector(1,npar);          }else{
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);            if(first==1){
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);              first=0;
   dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);              printf("See log file for details...\n");
   doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);            }
             fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
   gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);          }
   gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);            for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
   trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
             }
   if(estepm < stepm){          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
   }              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
   else  hstepm=estepm;               if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */              if(first==1){
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim               }
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.               fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size            }else{
      and note for a fixed period like k years */              if(first==1)
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
      means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if            }
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same           }
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.  
   */          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */             for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
   agelim = AGESUP;              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */          }      
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */           for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */            pos += pp[jk];
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);            posprop += prop[jk][i];
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);          }
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);            if(pos>=1.e-5){
               if(first==1)
                 printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/            }else{
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);              if(first==1)
       }                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);                fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);            }
             if( i <= iagemax){
       if (popbased==1) {              if(pos>=1.e-5){
         if(mobilav ==0){                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
         }else{ /* mobilav */               }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              else
             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
         }            }
       }          }
            
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];              if(first==1)
         }                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
       }                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means              }
          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)           if(i <= iagemax)
          as a weighted average of prlim.            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
       */          if(first==1)
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){            printf("Others in log...\n");
         for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];        }
       }          }
       /* end probability of death */    }
     dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */   
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    fclose(ficresp);
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
      free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
       if (popbased==1) {    /* End of Freq */
         if(mobilav ==0){  }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];  /************ Prevalence ********************/
         }else{ /* mobilav */   void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  {  
             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
         }       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
       }       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
     */
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){   
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];    double *pp, **prop;
         }    double pos,posprop;
       }    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means    int iagemin, iagemax;
          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)   
          as a weighted average of prlim.    iagemin= (int) agemin;
       */    iagemax= (int) agemax;
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
       }        j1=0;
       /* end probability of death */   
     j=cptcoveff;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){   
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
         }      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
         j1++;
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */       
         gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
       }          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
             prop[i][m]=0.0;
     } /* End theta */       
         for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */          bool=1;
           if  (cptcovn>0) {
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)                bool=0;
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];          }
           if (bool==1) {
     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
         trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];              if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
                   if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
                 if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m);
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) {
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                   prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){                }
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){              }
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);            } /* end selection of waves */
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);          }
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)        }
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;         
       }          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) {
     }            posprop += prop[jk][i];
             }
     /* pptj */  
     matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    
     matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);            if( i <=  iagemax){
     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)              if(posprop>=1.e-5){
       for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
         varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];              }
     /* end ppptj */            }
     /*  x centered again */          }/* end jk */
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);          }/* end i */
     prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);      } /* end i1 */
      } /* end k1 */
     if (popbased==1) {   
       if(mobilav ==0){    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
       }else{ /* mobilav */   }  /* End of prevalence */
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
           prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
       }  
     }  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
                {
     /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
        computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)        Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
        as a weighted average of prlim.       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
     */       dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
       for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)        */
         gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];   
     }        int i, mi, m;
     /* end probability of death */    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
        double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);    int first;
     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));    double sum=0.;
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){    first=0;
         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);    jmin=1e+5;
       }    jmax=-1;
     }     jmean=0.;
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       mi=0;
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );      m=firstpass;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){        if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);          mw[++mi][i]=m;
       }        if(m >=lastpass)
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");          break;
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);        else
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);          m++;
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);      }/* end while */
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
   } /* End age */        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
   free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);           /* Only death is a correct wave */
   free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);        mw[mi][i]=m;
   free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);      }
   free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/  
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");      wav[i]=mi;
   /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */      if(mi==0){
   fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");        nbwarn++;
 /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */        if(first==0){
 /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */          printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
 /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */          first=1;
   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev);        }
   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev);        if(first==1){
   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev);          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",fileresprobmorprev,fileresprobmorprev);        }
   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,digitp,optionfilefiname,digit);      } /* end mi==0 */
   /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);    } /* End individuals */
 */  
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit);    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);        if (stepm <=0)
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          dh[mi][i]=1;
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        else{
   free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);          if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
   free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
   free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);
   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);              if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
   fclose(ficresprobmorprev);              else if(j<0){
   fclose(ficgp);                nberr++;
   fclose(fichtm);                printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
 }                  j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
                 printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
 {              }
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */              k=k+1;
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/              if (j >= jmax){
   double **newm;                jmax=j;
   double **dnewm,**doldm;                ijmax=i;
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;              }
   int k, cptcode;              if (j <= jmin){
   double *xp;                jmin=j;
   double *gp, *gm;                ijmin=i;
   double **gradg, **trgradg;              }
   double age,agelim;              sum=sum+j;
   int theta;              /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
                  /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of stable prevalences \n");            }
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");          }
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          else{
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);            j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");  /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
   
   xp=vector(1,npar);            k=k+1;
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);            if (j >= jmax) {
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);              jmax=j;
                 ijmax=i;
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */            }
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */             else if (j <= jmin){
   agelim = AGESUP;              jmin=j;
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */              ijmin=i;
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */             }
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);            if(j<0){
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);              nberr++;
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){            }
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */            sum=sum+j;
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          }
       }          jk= j/stepm;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);          jl= j -jk*stepm;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
                 if(jl==0){
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */              dh[mi][i]=jk;
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);              bh[mi][i]=0;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)                    * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
               bh[mi][i]=ju;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)            }
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];          }else{
     } /* End theta */            if(jl <= -ju){
               dh[mi][i]=jk;
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
                                    * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)                                   */
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)            }
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];            else{
               dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)              bh[mi][i]=ju;
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;            }
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);            if(dh[mi][i]==0){
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
             }
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );          } /* end if mle */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        }
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));      } /* end wave */
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");    }
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);    jmean=sum/k;
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);   }
   } /* End age */  
   /*********** Tricode ****************************/
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);  {
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);   
     int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
 }    int cptcode=0;
     cptcoveff=0;
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/   
 void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)    for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
 {    for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
   int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;  
   int k2, l2, j1,  z1;    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
   int k=0,l, cptcode;      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum
   int first=1, first1;                                 modality*/
   double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
   double **dnewm,**doldm;        Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
   double *xp;        /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
   double *gp, *gm;        if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable
   double **gradg, **trgradg;                                         Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and
   double **mu;                                         female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];      }
   double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */  
   int theta;      for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];        if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
   char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];      }
   char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];  
       ij=1;
   double ***varpij;      for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
         for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");           if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);            nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {            /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);           
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);            ij++;
   }          }
   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");           if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;
   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);        }  
   if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {      }
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);    }  
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);  
   }   for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");   
   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);   for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {
   if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {     /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);     ij=Tvar[i];
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);     Ndum[ij]++;
   }   }
   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);  
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);   ij=1;
   printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);   for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);     if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
   printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);       Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
   fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);       ij++;
        }
   fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");   }
   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");   
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");   cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");  }
   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");  
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
   
   void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  {
       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);    /* Health expectancies, no variances */
       fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2;
       fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);    double age, agelim, hf;
     }      double ***p3mat;
  /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");    double eip;
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");  
   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");    pstamp(ficreseij);
  */    fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
  xp=vector(1,npar);    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
   mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);        fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
   varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);      }
   first=1;      fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {    }
     printf("Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);  
     exit(0);   
   }    if(estepm < stepm){
   else{      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");    }
   }    else  hstepm=estepm;  
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL) {    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
     printf("Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
     exit(0);     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear
   }     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
   else{     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear
      * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing matrix of variance-covariance of step probabilities</h4></li>\n");     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
     fprintf(fichtm,"\nWe have drawn ellipsoids of confidence around the p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf> to understand the covariance between two incidences. They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");  
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> We have drawn x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 where x is the column vector (pij,pkl). It means that if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2X2) matrix would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 standard deviations wide on each axis. <br> When both incidences are correlated we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix and made the appropriate rotation.<br> \n");    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
   }       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
        nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
   cov[1]=1;       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
   tj=cptcoveff;       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
   if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
   j1=0;       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
   for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){        you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
       j1++;       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
       if  (cptcovn>0) {    */
         fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);  
         fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");    agelim=AGESUP;
         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");     /* If stepm=6 months */
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
              
         fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");   /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm);
         fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
             /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
             nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
         fprintf(fichtm, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable ");     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);  
         fprintf(fichtm, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
           
         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");      
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");         
       }      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
            
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
         cov[2]=age;      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {     
           cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];  
         }      /* Computing expectancies */
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
                     eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));           
         trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);            /*if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));  
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));          }
          
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        eip=0;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);          eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
                     fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
           k=0;        }
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){        fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      }
               k=k+1;      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
               gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];     
             }    }
           }    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
               printf("\n");
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);   
       }
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);  
           k=0;  void cvevsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){  
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  {
               k=k+1;    /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
               gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];     to initial status i, ei. .
             }    */
           }    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
          double age, agelim, hf;
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)     double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
             gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];      double **dnewm,**doldm;
         }    double *xp, *xm;
     double **gp, **gm;
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    int theta;
             trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];  
             double eip, vip;
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);   
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);    varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    xp=vector(1,npar);
         free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    xm=vector(1,npar);
         free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
         free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    
         pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);    pstamp(ficresstdeij);
             fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
         k=0;    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
         for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
             k=k+1;        fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
             mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];      fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
           }    }
         }    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
         for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)  
           for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)    pstamp(ficrescveij);
             varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];    fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
     fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
         /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));        cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
           fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));        for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
           }*/          for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
             cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
         fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);            if(cptj2 <= cptj)
         fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);              fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);          }
       }
         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)    fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));   
         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){    if(estepm < stepm){
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);    }
         }    else  hstepm=estepm;  
         i=0;    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
         for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
           for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){      * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
             i=i++;     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we
             for (j=1; j<=i;j++){     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
               fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear
               fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
             }     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
           }  
         }/* end of loop for state */    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
       } /* end of loop for age */    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
        nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
       /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
       /*       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);    */
       */    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
   
       /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/    /* If stepm=6 months */
       first1=1;    /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
       for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){    agelim=AGESUP;
         for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm);
           if(l2==k2) continue;    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
           j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;    /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
           for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){    nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
             for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){    
               if(l1==k1) continue;    p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
               i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;    p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
               if(i<=j) continue;    gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
               for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
                 if ((int)age %5==0){    gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;  
                   cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
                   mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;  
                   mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
                   c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
                   /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */   
                   lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
                   lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;  
                   /* Eigen vectors */      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
                   v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));      /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
                   /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */         decrease memory allocation */
                   v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
                   v12=-v21;        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){
                   v22=v11;          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
                   tnalp=v21/v11;          xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
                   if(first1==1){        }
                     first1=0;        hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
                     printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);        hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
                   }   
                   fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
                   /*printf(fignu*/          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
                   /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */            for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
                   /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */              gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
                   if(first==1){              gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
                     first=0;            }
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");          }
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);        }
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");       
                     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);        for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
                     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
                     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);            gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);          }
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);      }/* End theta */
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);     
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\     
                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
                   }else{          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                     first=0;            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
                     fprintf(fichtm," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);     
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);  
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);       for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\        for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\          varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));  
                   }/* if first */       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
                 } /* age mod 5 */       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
               } /* end loop age */       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
               fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
               first=1;          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
             } /*l12 */          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
           } /* k12 */          for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
         } /*l1 */            for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
       }/* k1 */              varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
     } /* loop covariates */        }
   }      }
   free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);  
   free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);      /* Computing expectancies */
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
   fclose(ficresprob);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   fclose(ficresprobcov);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
   fclose(ficresprobcor);          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   fclose(ficgp);            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
   fclose(fichtm);           
 }            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
   
           }
 /******************* Printing html file ***********/  
 void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                   int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\        eip=0.;
                   int popforecast, int estepm ,\        vip=0.;
                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){          eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;          for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
   /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/            vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL)    {          fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);        }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);        fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
   }      }
       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files (first order: no variance)</h4>\n  
  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n      fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
  - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>\n      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
  - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>\n        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
  - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months):           cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
    <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>\n</li>", \          for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
   jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,fileres,fileres,stepm,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,estepm,fileres,fileres);            for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
               cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
 fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");              if(cptj2 <= cptj)
                 fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
  m=cptcoveff;            }
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}        }
       fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
  jj1=0;     
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){    }
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
      jj1++;    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
      if (cptcovn > 0) {    free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");    free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)     free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);    free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");    printf("\n");
      }    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
      /* Pij */  
      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before: pe%s%d1.png<br>    free_vector(xm,1,npar);
 <img src=\"pe%s%d1.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);         free_vector(xp,1,npar);
      /* Quasi-incidences */    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: pe%s%d2.png<br>    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
 <img src=\"pe%s%d2.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);     free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
        /* Stable prevalence in each health state */  }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){  
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br>  /************ Variance ******************/
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
        }  {
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {    /* Variance of health expectancies */
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.png <br>    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);    /* double **newm;*/
      }    double **dnewm,**doldm;
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.png<br>    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
 <img src=\"e%s%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);    int k, cptcode;
    } /* end i1 */    double *xp;
  }/* End k1 */    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
     double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
     double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><li><h4> Result files (second order: variances)</h4>\n    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
  - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n    double ***p3mat;
  - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"prob%s\">prob%s</a> <br>\n    double age,agelim, hf;
  - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcov%s\">probcov%s</a> <br>\n    double ***mobaverage;
  - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcor%s\">probcor%s</a> <br>\n    int theta;
  - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\n     char digit[4];
  - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\n    char digitp[25];
  - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\n",rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres, estepm, fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);  
     char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n  
  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n    if(popbased==1){
  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n      if(mobilav!=0)
         <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);        strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
  else       else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model);    }
 fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");    else
       strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
  m=cptcoveff;  
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}    if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
  jj1=0;      if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
      jj1++;      }
      if (cptcovn > 0) {    }
        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");  
        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)     strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev");
          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
      }    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.png <br>    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
      }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
    } /* end i1 */    }
  }/* End k1 */    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");   
 fclose(fichtm);    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
 }    pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
 /******************* Gnuplot file **************/    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
 void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   int ng;        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {    }  
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
   }    /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
   /*#ifdef windows */    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);  /*   } */
     /*#endif */    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    pstamp(ficresvij);
       fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
  /* 1eme*/    if(popbased==1)
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1)");
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    else
      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");        fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
      }  
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stable prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    xp=vector(1,npar);
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
      }     doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);   
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
      }      trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));   
    }    if(estepm < stepm){
   }      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
   /*2 eme*/    }
       else  hstepm=estepm;  
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {     /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
            nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
       k=2*i;       and note for a fixed period like k years */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
       }          results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");    */
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    agelim = AGESUP;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
       }         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");  
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");  
       }         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
     }        }
   }        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
           prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   /*3eme*/  
           if (popbased==1) {
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {           if(mobilav ==0){
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);          }else{ /* mobilav */
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");          }
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);        }
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);   
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
                     for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
       */              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {          }
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);        }
                 /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
       }            computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
     }           as a weighted average of prlim.
   }        */
           for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   /* CV preval stat */          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {             gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {        }    
       k=3;        /* end probability of death */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"p%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);  
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
                 xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);   
               if (popbased==1) {
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;          if(mobilav ==0){
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;          }else{ /* mobilav */
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       }              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);             }
     }         }
   }    
           for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
   /* proba elementaires */          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
       if (k != i) {          }
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){        }
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
           jk++;            computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");           as a weighted average of prlim.
         }        */
       }        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     }          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
    }           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }    
    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/        /* end probability of death */
      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk,ng);         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
        if (ng==2)          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
        else          }
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
        i=1;          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {        }
          k3=i;  
          for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {      } /* End theta */
            if (k != k2){  
              if(ng==2)      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
                fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);  
              else      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
                fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
              ij=1;          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
              for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
                if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {  
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
                  ij++;        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                }          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
                else   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);  
              }      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
              fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
              for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){             vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
                fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);  
                ij=1;      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
                    ij++;          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                  }            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
                  else              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);        }
                }      }
                fprintf(ficgp,")");   
              }      /* pptj */
              fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");      matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
              i=i+ncovmodel;      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
            }        for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
          } /* end k */          varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
        } /* end k2 */      /* end ppptj */
      } /* end jk */      /*  x centered again */
    } /* end ng */      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
    fclose(ficgp);       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
 }  /* end gnuplot */   
       if (popbased==1) {
         if(mobilav ==0){
 /*************** Moving average **************/          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
 int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         }else{ /* mobilav */
   int i, cpt, cptcod;          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   int modcovmax =1;            prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
   int mobilavrange, mob;        }
   double age;      }
                
   modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
                            a covariate has 2 modalities */         computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
   if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */         as a weighted average of prlim.
       */
   if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
     else mobilavrange=mobilav;          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)      }    
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      /* end probability of death */
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)  
           mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
     /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
        fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
        we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
     */           fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
     for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){        }
       for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){      }
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){  
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];      fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
               for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];          fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
               }        }
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
           }      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
         }      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       }/* end age */      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
     }/* end mob */      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   }else return -1;      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   return 0;    } /* End age */
 }/* End movingaverage */    free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
 /************** Forecasting ******************/    free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
 prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
   /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection     /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
      agemin, agemax range of age    fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
      anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   */  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h;    fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
   int *popage;    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
   double agec; /* generic age */    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
   double ***p3mat;    /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
   double ***mobaverage;  */
   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
   agelim=AGESUP;  
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
      free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);    free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {    free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);    free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   }    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);    fflush(ficgp);
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);    fflush(fichtm);
   }  /* end varevsij */
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;  
   /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
   if (mobilav!=0) {  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  {
     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){    /* Variance of prevalence limit */
       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);    double **newm;
     }    double **dnewm,**doldm;
   }    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
     int k, cptcode;
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;    double *xp;
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    double *gp, *gm;
       double **gradg, **trgradg;
   hstepm=1;    double age,agelim;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;     int theta;
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and   
                                fractional in yp1 */    pstamp(ficresvpl);
   anprojmean=yp;    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
   mprojmean=yp;    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);        fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
   jprojmean=yp;    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;  
   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;    xp=vector(1,npar);
       dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
      
   fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=cptcoveff;cptcov++){    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){    agelim = AGESUP;
       k=k+1;    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {      if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
       }      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");      gp=vector(1,nlstate);
       fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");      gm=vector(1,nlstate);
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){   
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                    for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
           fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
         fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
       }        }
       for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp++) {         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);             gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
      
         for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);    
                 for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
             if (h==(int) (YEARM*yearp)) {      } /* End theta */
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n");  
               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)       trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  
               fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
             }         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {          trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
               ppij=0.;  
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                 if (mobilav==1)         varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
                 else {      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                 }        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
                 if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp))  
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);      fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
               }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){        fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
               }      free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
             }      free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
           }      free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
         }    } /* End age */
       }  
     }    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
   }    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
            free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  
   }
   fclose(ficresf);  
 }  /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
   void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
 /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/  {
 populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){    int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
       int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;    int k=0,l, cptcode;
   int *popage;    int first=1, first1;
   double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;    double **dnewm,**doldm;
   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;    double *xp;
   double ***mobaverage;    double *gp, *gm;
   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];    double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double **mu;
   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
   agelim=AGESUP;    int theta;
   calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
       char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
     
       double ***varpij;
   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");   
   strcat(filerespop,fileres);    strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");
   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
   }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);    }
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");
     strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
   if (mobilav!=0) {      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    }
     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");
       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
     }      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
   }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     }
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
       printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
   agelim=AGESUP;    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
       printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
   hstepm=1;    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;     pstamp(ficresprob);
       fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
   if (popforecast==1) {    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {    pstamp(ficresprobcov);
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     }     pstamp(ficresprobcor);
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);  
       
     i=1;       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
            fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
     imx=i;        fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];        fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
   }      }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
       k=k+1;   */
       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");   xp=vector(1,npar);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {    dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
       }    mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");    varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");    first=1;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {   
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
             fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){     file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;   and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
              They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;  It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);    would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
           standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){   Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
             if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {   and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);  To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
             }   
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    cov[1]=1;
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;    tj=cptcoveff;
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                  if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
                 if (mobilav==1)     j1=0;
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
                 else {      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];        j1++;
                 }        if  (cptcovn>0) {
               }          fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;          fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");
                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
               }          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
             }         
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){          fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");
               kk1=0.;          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){          fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];          
                 }         
                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];          fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable ");
             }          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
             if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          
               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
           }          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
         }        }
       }       
          for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
   /******/          cov[2]=age;
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {             cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);             }
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);           for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;             cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
                    
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);            gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
             if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {     
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             }             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {              xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;           
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];               
               }            k=0;
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);                    for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
             }              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
           }                k=k+1;
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);                gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
         }              }
       }            }
    }            
   }            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
                xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);     
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
   if (popforecast==1) {            k=0;
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);            for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);                k=k+1;
   }                gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);              }
   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);            }
   fclose(ficrespop);       
 }            for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
               gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
 /***********************************************/          }
 /**************** Main Program *****************/  
 /***********************************************/          for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
             for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
 int main(int argc, char *argv[])              trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
 {         
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;          free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
   double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;          free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
   double fret;          free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
   double **xi,tmp,delta;  
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */         
   double ***p3mat;          k=0;
   double ***mobaverage;          for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
   int *indx;            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];              k=k+1;
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[80];              mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;            }
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */          }
   int c,  h , cpt,l;          for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
   int ju,jl, mi;            for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;              varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab;   
   int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */          /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;            for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
   int hstepm, nhstepm;            printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1;            fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             }*/
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;  
   double ftolpl=FTOL;          fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   double **prlim;          fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   double *severity;          fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */  
   double  *p;          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */            fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
   double *delti; /* Scale */            fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
   double ***eij, ***vareij;            fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */          }
   double *epj, vepp;          i=0;
   double kk1, kk2;          for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;            for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){
               i=i++;
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];              fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
   char z[1]="c", occ;                fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
 #include <sys/time.h>                fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
 #include <time.h>              }
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];            }
            }/* end of loop for state */
   /* long total_usecs;        } /* end of loop for age */
      struct timeval start_time, end_time;  
           /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
      gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */        /*
   getcwd(pathcd, size);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
   printf("\n%s",version);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
   if(argc <=1){          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
     scanf("%s",pathtot);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
   }          fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
   else{        */
     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);  
   }        /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/        first1=1;
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);        for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/          for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/            if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);            for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
   printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);              for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){
   chdir(path);                if(l1==k1) continue;
   replace(pathc,path);                i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                 if(i<=j) continue;
   /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/                for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
                   if ((int)age %5==0){
   /* Log file */                    v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
   strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);                    v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
   strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */                    cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
   if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {                    mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
     printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);                    mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
     goto end;                    c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
   }                    /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
   fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);                    lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
   fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s",version);                    lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
   fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: ");                    /* Eigen vectors */
   fprintf(ficlog,"pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);                    v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
   fflush(ficlog);                    /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                     v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
   /* */                    v12=-v21;
   strcpy(fileres,"r");                    v22=v11;
   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);                    tnalp=v21/v11;
   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */                    if(first1==1){
                       first1=0;
   /*---------arguments file --------*/                      printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {                    fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);                    /*printf(fignu*/
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);                    /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
     goto end;                    /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
   }                    if(first==1){
                       first=0;
   strcpy(filereso,"o");                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
   strcat(filereso,fileres);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);   :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
     goto end;  %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
   }                              subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
     puts(line);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
     fputs(line,ficparo);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
   }                              mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                              mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }else{
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);                      first=0;
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);                      fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                              mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
     puts(line);                              mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
     fputs(line,ficparo);                    }/* if first */
   }                  } /* age mod 5 */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                } /* end loop age */
                   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                    first=1;
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);               } /*l12 */
   cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/            } /* k12 */
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;          } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */      } /* loop covariates */
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */    }
       free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
   /* Read guess parameters */    free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    fclose(ficresprob);
     puts(line);    fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fputs(line,ficparo);    fclose(ficresprobcor);
   }    fflush(ficgp);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    fflush(fichtmcov);
     }
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);  
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)  
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){  /******************* Printing html file ***********/
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);  void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
       if(mle==1)                    int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);                    int popforecast, int estepm ,\
       fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);                    double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){                    double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);    int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
         if(mle==1){  
           printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
           fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);     <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
         }  </ul>");
         else     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
           fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);   - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);             jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
       }     fprintf(fichtm,"\
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");   - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
       if(mle==1)             stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
         printf("\n");     fprintf(fichtm,"\
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");   - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");             subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
     }     fprintf(fichtm,"\
      - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age:  ei., eij . If one or more covariate are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
   npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
   p=param[1][1];     fprintf(fichtm,"\
      - Population projections by age and states: \
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileres,"f"),subdirf2(fileres,"f"));
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  
     puts(line);   m=cptcoveff;
     fputs(line,ficparo);   if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   }  
   ungetc(c,ficpar);   jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */       jj1++;
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){       if (cptcovn > 0) {
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){         fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);         for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);           fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){       }
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);       /* Pij */
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d1.png\">%s%d1.png</a><br> \
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);  <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);    
       }       /* Quasi-incidences */
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
       printf("\n");   before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d2.png\">%s%d2.png</a><br> \
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");  <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
     }         /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
   }         for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
   delti=delti3[1][1];           fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Period (stable) prevalence in each health state : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a><br> \
     <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */         }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a> <br> \
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
     puts(line);       }
     fputs(line,ficparo);     } /* end i1 */
   }   }/* End k1 */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);   fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
     
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){   fprintf(fichtm,"\
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);  \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
     if(mle==1)   - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
       printf("%s",str);  
     fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);   fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);           subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){   fprintf(fichtm,"\
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);   - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
       if(mle==1){           subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
         printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);  
         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);   fprintf(fichtm,"\
       }   - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
       else           subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);   fprintf(fichtm,"\
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);   - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
     }     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");             estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
     if(mle==1)   fprintf(fichtm,"\
       printf("\n");   - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");             estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
   }   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)   - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), eij are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences (i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)           estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];   fprintf(fichtm,"\
       - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
   if(mle==1)           subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
     printf("\n");   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");   - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/  /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */  /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/  /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */  /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */  /*  else  */
   if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {  /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
     printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;   fflush(fichtm);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;   fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   }  
   fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);   m=cptcoveff;
        if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   /*-------- data file ----------*/  
   if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {   jj1=0;
     printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;   for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
   }       jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
   n= lastobs;         fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
   severity = vector(1,maxwav);         for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
   outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);           fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
   num=ivector(1,n);         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
   moisnais=vector(1,n);       }
   annais=vector(1,n);       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
   moisdc=vector(1,n);         fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   andc=vector(1,n);  prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
   agedc=vector(1,n);  <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
   cod=ivector(1,n);       }
   weight=vector(1,n);       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */  health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
   mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);  <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
   anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);     } /* end i1 */
   s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);   }/* End k1 */
   tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);   fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   ncodemax=ivector(1,8);   fflush(fichtm);
   }
   i=1;  
   while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
     if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {  void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
           
       for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
         strcpy(line,stra);    int ng;
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
       }  /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
           /*   } */
       cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      /*#endif */
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
       for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){    strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);   /* 1eme*/
       }     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
       num[i]=atol(stra);     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
                fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
       /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
         printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
       i=i+1;  set ter png small\n\
     }  set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   }  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   /* printf("ii=%d", ij);  
      scanf("%d",i);*/       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){       }
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
     }*/         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
    /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){       }
      if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1;        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
      printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
            if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }  
    /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      else weight[i]=1;*/     }
     }
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/    /*2 eme*/
   Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */   
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);      fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
   Tage=ivector(1,15);           
          for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
   if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */        k=2*i;
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;        fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
     j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */        for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
     j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */          if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
     cptcovn=j+1;           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
     cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */        }  
             if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
     strcpy(modelsav,model);         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){        fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);        for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
       fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);          if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
       goto end;          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
     }        }  
             fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
     /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/        fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){          if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */        }  
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/        if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/        else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */      }
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/    }
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */   
           cptcovprod--;    /*3eme*/
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');   
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
           cptcovage++;      for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;        /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/        k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
         }        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */        fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
           cptcovprod--;  set size 0.65,0.65\n\
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);        /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           cptcovage++;          for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;          fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
         }          fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
         else {  /* Age is not in the model */          for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/          fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;         
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */        */
           Tprod[k1]=i;        for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/          fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */          /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];         
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];         }
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
             covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];      }
           k1++;    }
           k2=k2+2;   
         }    /* CV preval stable (period) */
       }    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
       else { /* no more sum */      for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/        k=3;
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);  set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
       }  unset log y\n\
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);    plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);       
         scanf("%d",i);*/        for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
     } /* end of loop + */          fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
   } /* end model */        fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
          
   /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.        l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
     If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/        fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
   /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);          l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);          fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
   fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);        }
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);  
   scanf("%d ",i);      }
   fclose(fic);*/    }  
    
     /*  if(mle==1){*/    /* proba elementaires */
   if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
   }        if (k != i) {
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/          for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
   agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);            fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++;
   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {            fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
     for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {          }
       if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){        }
         anint[m][i]=9999;      }
         s[m][i]=-1;     }
       }  
       if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999 & s[m][i]>nlstate) s[m][i]=-1;     for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
     }       for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
   }         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng);
          if (ng==2)
   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
     agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);         else
     for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
       if(s[m][i] >0){         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
         if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {         i=1;
           if(agedc[i]>0)         for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
             if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)           k3=i;
               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];           for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
           /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/             if (k != k2){
             else {               if(ng==2)
               if (andc[i]!=9999){                 fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                 printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);               else
                 fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);                 fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                 agev[m][i]=-1;               ij=1;
               }               for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
             }                 if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
         }                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
         else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional                   ij++;
                                  years but with the precision of a                 }
                                  month */                 else
           agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
           if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)               }
             agev[m][i]=1;               fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
           else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){                
             agemin=agev[m][i];               for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){  
             /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/                 fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
           }                 ij=1;
           else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){                 for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             agemax=agev[m][i];                   if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
             /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
           }                     ij++;
           /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/                   }
           /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/                   else
         }                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
         else { /* =9 */                 }
           agev[m][i]=1;                 fprintf(ficgp,")");
           s[m][i]=-1;               }
         }               fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
       }               if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
       else /*= 0 Unknown */               i=i+ncovmodel;
         agev[m][i]=1;             }
     }           } /* end k */
              } /* end k2 */
   }       } /* end jk */
   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {     } /* end ng */
     for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){     fflush(ficgp);
       if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {  }  /* end gnuplot */
         printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);       
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);       
         goto end;  /*************** Moving average **************/
       }  int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
     }  
   }    int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
   /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){    int mobilavrange, mob;
   for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){    double age;
      printf("%d %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);  
 }    modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
 }*/    if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
   printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);    if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
   fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
   free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
   free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   free_vector(moisnais,1,n);          for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
   free_vector(annais,1,n);            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
   /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);      /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for
      free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/         fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);         we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.
   free_vector(andc,1,n);      */
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
            for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
   wav=ivector(1,imx);          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);            for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);                for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                      mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
   /* Concatenates waves */                  mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
   concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);                }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
   /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */            }
           }
   Tcode=ivector(1,100);        }/* end age */
   nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);       }/* end mob */
   ncodemax[1]=1;    }else return -1;
   if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);    return 0;
         }/* End movingaverage */
   codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of   
                                  the estimations*/  
   h=0;  /************** Forecasting ******************/
   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);  prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
      /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection
   for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){       agemin, agemax range of age
     for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){       dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
       for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){       anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
         for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){    */
           h++;    int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
           if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;    int *popage;
           /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/    double agec; /* generic age */
         }     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
       }    double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     }    double ***p3mat;
   }     double ***mobaverage;
   /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
      codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */  
   /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){     agelim=AGESUP;
      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){    prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
      printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);   
      }    strcpy(fileresf,"f");
      printf("\n");    strcat(fileresf,fileres);
      }    if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
      scanf("%d",i);*/      printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
   /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age    }
      and prints on file fileres'p'. */    printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    if (mobilav!=0) {
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */      mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
           if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
            fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
   /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
      so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */      }
   p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */    }
   
   if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */    stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);    if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
   }    if(estepm < stepm){
           printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
   /*--------- results files --------------*/    }
   fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);    else  hstepm=estepm;  
     
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
   jk=1;    yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
   fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");                                 fractional in yp1 */
   printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");    anprojmean=yp;
   fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");    yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    mprojmean=yp;
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){    yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
       if (k != i)     jprojmean=yp;
         {    if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
           printf("%d%d ",i,k);    if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);  
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);    i1=cptcoveff;
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
             printf("%f ",p[jk]);   
             fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);    fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
             fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);   
             jk++;     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
           }  
           printf("\n");  /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");    for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         }        k=k+1;
     }        fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
   }        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
   if(mle==1){          fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */        }
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */        fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);        fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
   }        for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
   printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");            fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
   fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");          fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){        }
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){        for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
       if (j!=i) {          fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
         fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);          fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);  
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);  
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);          for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){            nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
           printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);            nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);            p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);            oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           jk++;            hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
         }         
         printf("\n");            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
         fprintf(ficres,"\n");                fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
       }                for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
     }                  fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
   }                fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
                  }
   fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
   if(mle==1)                ppij=0.;
     printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");                for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
   fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");                  if (mobilav==1)
   for(i=1,k=1;i<=npar;i++){                    ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
     /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;                  else {
         i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
         fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);                  }
         printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);                  if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
     */                    fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
     fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);                  }
     if(mle==1)                } /* end i */
       printf("%3d",i);                if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
     fprintf(ficlog,"%3d",i);                  fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
     for(j=1; j<=i;j++){                }
       fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);              }/* end j */
       if(mle==1)            } /* end h */
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);            free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
       fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);          } /* end agec */
     }        } /* end yearp */
     fprintf(ficres,"\n");      } /* end cptcod */
     if(mle==1)    } /* end  cptcov */
       printf("\n");         
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     k++;  
   }    fclose(ficresf);
      }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     puts(line);   
     fputs(line,ficparo);    int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
   }    int *popage;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
   estepm=0;    double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
   fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);    double ***mobaverage;
   if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;    char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   if (fage <= 2) {  
     bage = ageminpar;    tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fage = agemaxpar;    tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   }    agelim=AGESUP;
        calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
   fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");   
   fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);    prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
   fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);   
       
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    strcpy(filerespop,"pop");
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
     puts(line);      printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     fputs(line,ficparo);      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
   }    }
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);  
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);    if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);  
   printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);    if (mobilav!=0) {
   fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);      mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
          if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      }
     puts(line);    }
     fputs(line,ficparo);  
   }    stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
   dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;   
   dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;    hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);   
   fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);       if (popforecast==1) {
   fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);         if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
           printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      }
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
     puts(line);      popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
     fputs(line,ficparo);      popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
   }     
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      i=1;  
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
   fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);     
   fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);      imx=i;
   printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);      for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
   fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);    }
   fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);  
   /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/    for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        k=k+1;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
     puts(line);          fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
     fputs(line,ficparo);        }
   }        fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);        if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
   fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);       
   fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);        for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);  
   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);         
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
   /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/            nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);            nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");           
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {            p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);            oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
   }            hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
   else{         
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version);             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
     fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
     fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");                fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
   }              }
   fclose(ficgp);              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
   printinggnuplot(fileres, ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);                kk1=0.;kk2=0;
   /*--------- index.htm --------*/                for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1)
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);                    kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");                  else {
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {                    kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);                  }
   }                }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
   fprintf(fichtm,"<body> <font size=\"2\">%s </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n                  tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
 Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n                    /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
 \n                      if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
 Total number of observations=%d <br>\n                }
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n              }
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
  <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n                kk1=0.;
  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n                  for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
  - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n                    kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
  - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a></ul>\n",version,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot);                  }
   fclose(fichtm);                    tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);  
                if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
   /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/                fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
   chdir(path);            }
              free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   free_ivector(wav,1,imx);          }
   free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);        }
   free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
   free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);       /******/
   free_ivector(num,1,n);  
   free_vector(agedc,1,n);        for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {
   /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/          fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);  
   /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/          for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
   fclose(ficparo);            nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
   fclose(ficres);            nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
            
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (stable prevalence) --------------*/            oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
               hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);              if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {                fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
     printf("Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;              }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
   }                kk1=0.;kk2=0;
   printf("Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);                for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);                  kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Stable prevalence \n");                }
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");                if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);              }
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");            }
               free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          }
         }
   agebase=ageminpar;     }
   agelim=agemaxpar;    }
   ftolpl=1.e-10;   
   i1=cptcoveff;    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}  
     if (popforecast==1) {
   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){      free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       k=k+1;      free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
       /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/    }
       fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");    free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       printf("\n#******");    free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");    fclose(ficrespop);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {  } /* End of popforecast */
         fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  
         printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
         fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  {
       }    if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");      printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       printf("******\n");      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");      return (0);
             }
       for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){    fflush(fichier);
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);    return (1);
         fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );  }
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  /**************** function prwizard **********************/
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);  void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");  {
       }  
     }    /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   }  
   fclose(ficrespl);    char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/    int numlinepar;
     
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);    printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {    fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;    for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;      jj=0;
   }      for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);        if(j==i) continue;
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);        jj++;
           /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;        printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/        fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
   agelim=AGESUP;          /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */          /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
   /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/        }
         printf("\n");
   fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");        fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      }
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    }
       k=k+1;    printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");    fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
         fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");      jj=0;
               for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
       for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */        if(j==i) continue;
         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */         jj++;
         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */        fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/        fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);            printf(" 0.");
         fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");          fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        }
           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)        numlinepar++;
             fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);        printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");        fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      }
           fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );    }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)  /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
               fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);  /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");  /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
         }  /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");  /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       }  /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
     }  /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
   }    fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
   varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);    /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   fclose(ficrespij);    /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
    
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/    for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
   /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/      jj=0;
   if(prevfcast==1){      for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
     if(stepm ==1){        for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
       prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);          if(j==i) continue;
       if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);          for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
     }             jj++;
     else{            ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
       erreur=108;            if(itimes==1){
       printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);              printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);              fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
     }            }else{
   }              printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/            }
             ll=0;
   strcpy(filerest,"t");            for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
   strcat(filerest,fileres);              for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {                if(lj==li) continue;
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;                for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;                  ll++;
   }                  if(ll<=jj){
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
   strcpy(filerese,"e");                        fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
   strcat(filerese,fileres);                      }else{
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {                        printf(" 0.");
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);                        fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);                      }
   }                    }else{
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);                      if(itimes==1){
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);                        printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
   strcpy(fileresv,"v");                      }else{
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);                        printf(" 0.");
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {                        fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);                      }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);                    }
   }                  }
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);                } /* end lk */
   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);              } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);            printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
   if (mobilav!=0) {            numlinepar++;
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          } /* end k*/
     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){        } /*end j */
       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);      } /* end i */
       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);    } /* end itimes */
     }  
   }  } /* end of prwizard */
   /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){  double gompertz(double x[])
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){  {
       k=k+1;     double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");    int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)   
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");      sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");      num=num+1;
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)     }
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);   
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");   
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++)
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");       if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)   
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");      {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;       
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);          if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
            A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);               +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;       
       varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav);        /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
       if(popbased==1){        if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
         varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav);          L=L+A*weight[i];
       }          /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
        }
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");  
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);   /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");   
     return -2*L*num/sump;
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);  }
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){  
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);  /******************* Printing html file ***********/
         if (popbased==1) {  void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
           if(mobilav ==0){                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                    int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
               prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];    int i,k;
           }else{ /* mobilav */   
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
               prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];    fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
           }    for (i=1;i<=2;i++)
         }      fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
             fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
         fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){  
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {  fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];  
             /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/   fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
           }  
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];   for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
         }     fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)   
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)    fflush(fichtm);
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];  }
         fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));  
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));  void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
         }  
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
       }    int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
       free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);    int ng;
       free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);  
       free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);  
     }    /*#ifdef windows */
   }    fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
   free_vector(weight,1,n);      /*#endif */
   free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);  
   free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);  
   free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
   free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);    strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
   free_ivector(cod,1,n);    fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n ");
   free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);    fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n ");
   fclose(ficreseij);    fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small\n set log y\n");
   fclose(ficresvij);    fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n");
   fclose(ficrest);    fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
   fclose(ficpar);  
     }
   /*------- Variance of stable prevalence------*/     
   
   strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");  
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);  
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {  
     printf("Problem with variance of stable prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);  /***********************************************/
     exit(0);  /**************** Main Program *****************/
   }  /***********************************************/
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of stable prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);  
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){  {
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
       k=k+1;    int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");    int linei, month, year,iout;
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");    int itimes;
           int NDIM=2;
       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);  
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
       varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);    char dummy[]="                         ";
       free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);    /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     }    /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
   }    struct stat info;
     double agedeb, agefin,hf;
   fclose(ficresvpl);    double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/    double fret;
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    double **xi,tmp,delta;
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);  
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    double dum; /* Dummy variable */
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    double ***p3mat;
       double ***mobaverage;
   free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);    int *indx;
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);    char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);    char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);    char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE];
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);    char **bp, *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
   free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);    int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
   free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);    int c,  h , cpt,l;
   free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);    int ju,jl, mi;
   free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);    int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
   free_ivector(Tage,1,15);    int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab;
   free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);    int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
   fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");    int hstepm, nhstepm;
   fclose(fichtm);    int agemortsup;
   fclose(ficgp);    float  sumlpop=0.;
       double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   if(erreur >0){  
     printf("End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);    double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);    double ftolpl=FTOL;
   }else{    double **prlim;
    printf("End of Imach\n");    double *severity;
    fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");    double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
   }    double  *p;
   printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);    double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
   fclose(ficlog);    double ***delti3; /* Scale */
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */    double *delti; /* Scale */
       double ***eij, ***vareij;
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/    double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/    double *epj, vepp;
   /*------ End -----------*/    double kk1, kk2;
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
   end:    double **ximort;
 #ifdef windows    char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
   /* chdir(pathcd);*/    int *dcwave;
 #endif   
  /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/    char z[1]="c", occ;
  /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/  
  /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/    char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
  /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/    char  *strt, strtend[80];
   strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);    char *stratrunc;
   strcat(plotcmd," ");    int lstra;
   strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);  
   printf("Starting: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);    long total_usecs;
   system(plotcmd);   
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
  /*#ifdef windows*/  /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   while (z[0] != 'q') {  /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
     /* chdir(path); */  /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");  /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
     scanf("%s",z);  
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");    /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     else if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);    (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
     else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);    curr_time=start_time;
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);    tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
   }    tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
   /*#endif */    strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
 }  
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart);
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
      for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
         printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
         while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
         printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
         strcpy (pathtot, val);
         if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
       }
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
     split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
    /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
     /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
       printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
     if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
   
     ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
   
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     delti=delti3[1][1];
     /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
       exit(0);
     }
     else if(mle==-3) {
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     }
     else{
       /* Read guess parameters */
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
      
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         j=0;
         for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           if(jj==i) continue;
           j++;
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
   It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
   run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           if(mle==1)
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
             if(mle==1){
               printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             }
             else
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           if(mle==1)
             printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         }
       }  
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       p=param[1][1];
      
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
             printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
       }
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
       /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
    
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
    
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%s",str);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
         for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           }
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
      
       fflush(ficlog);
      
       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
       strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
       strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
       if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
     }    /* End of mle != -3 */
   
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
     }
   
     n= lastobs;
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
   
     i=1;
     linei=0;
     while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
       linei=linei+1;
       for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
         if(line[j] == '\t')
           line[j] = ' ';
       }
       for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
         ;
       };
       line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
       if(line[0]=='#'){
         fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         continue;
       }
   
       for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         errno=0;
         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
         /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
           printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %d %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
           exit(1);
         }
         s[j][i]=lval;
        
         strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
         }
         else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
           month=99;
           year=9999;
         }else{
           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
           exit(1);
         }
         anint[j][i]= (double) year;
         mint[j][i]= (double)month;
         strcpy(line,stra);
       } /* ENd Waves */
      
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
       }
       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         exit(1);
       }
       andc[i]=(double) year;
       moisdc[i]=(double) month;
       strcpy(line,stra);
      
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
       }
       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line,j);
         exit(1);
       }
       annais[i]=(double)(year);
       moisnais[i]=(double)(month);
       strcpy(line,stra);
      
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
       errno=0;
       dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
         printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %ld, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         exit(1);
       }
       weight[i]=dval;
       strcpy(line,stra);
      
       for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         errno=0;
         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
           printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
           exit(1);
         }
         if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
           printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
           exit(1);
         }
         covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
         strcpy(line,stra);
       }
       lstra=strlen(stra);
      
       if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
         stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
         num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
       }
       else
         num[i]=atol(stra);
       /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
         printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
      
       i=i+1;
     } /* End loop reading  data */
     fclose(fic);
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
        scanf("%d",i);*/
     imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
   
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
       if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
       if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
       }*/
      /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1;
        printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
    
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) */
    
      /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
        else weight[i]=1;*/
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
     Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
     Tprod=ivector(1,15);
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);
     Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
     Tage=ivector(1,15);      
      
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovn=j+1;
       cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
      
       strcpy(modelsav,model);
       if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
         printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         goto end;
       }
      
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
   
       for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
         cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
           cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
             cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=i;
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           }
           else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;
           }
           else {  /* Age is not in the model */
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
             Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
             cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=i;
             Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
             Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
             for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)
               covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
             k1++;
             k2=k2+2;
           }
         }
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
         Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
    
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);*/
   
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
     }
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]);
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0)
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){
               agemin=agev[m][i];
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
               agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
      
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           nberr++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);    
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);    
           goto end;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
   
     agegomp=(int)agemin;
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
   
      
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
   
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     Tcode=ivector(1,100);
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
        
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of
                                    the estimations*/
     h=0;
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
       for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
             h++;
             if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
             /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
           }
         }
       }
     }
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
      
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
   
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version);
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
    
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
      
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
   
     if (mle==-3){
       ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
       cens=ivector(1,n);
       ageexmed=vector(1,n);
       agecens=vector(1,n);
       dcwave=ivector(1,n);
    
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         dcwave[i]=-1;
         for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
           if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
             dcwave[i]=m;
             /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
             break;
           }
       }
   
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
         if (wav[i]>0){
           ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
           j=wav[i];
           agecens[i]=1.;
   
           if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
             agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
             cens[i]= 1;
           }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
             cens[i]= -1;
           if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
             cens[i]=0 ;
         }
         else cens[i]=-1;
       }
      
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
      
       p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;
       /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
      
      
       printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
       strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort");
       strcat(filerespow,fileres);
       if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       }
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
       /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
       */
       fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
      
       powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
       fclose(ficrespow);
      
       hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
   
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      
       printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){
           printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         printf("\n ");
       }
      
       printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++)
         printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
   
       lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
      
       for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
         agemortsup=k;
         if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
       }
      
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
         lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
      
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
         lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
         sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
       }
      
       tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
         /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
         tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
       }
      
      
       printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
         printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
      
      
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
      
       printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                        stepm, weightopt,\
                        model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
      
       free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
     } /* Endof if mle==-3 */
    
     else{ /* For mle >=1 */
    
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
         mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
       }
      
       /*--------- results files --------------*/
       fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
      
      
       fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
           if (k != i) {
             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
               printf("%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       if(mle!=0){
         /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
         ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
         hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if (j!=i) {
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
      
       fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       if(mle>=1)
         printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
       /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
       /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
       /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
      
      
       /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
          even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
       */
       for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
         jj=0;
         for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
             if(j==i) continue;
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               jj++;
               ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
               if(itimes==1){
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }else{
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }
               ll=0;
               for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                 for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   if(lj==li) continue;
                   for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                     ll++;
                     if(ll<=jj){
                       cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                       if(ll<jj){
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
                         }
                       }else{
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
                         }
                       }
                     }
                   } /* end lk */
                 } /* end lj */
               } /* end li */
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               fprintf(ficres,"\n");
               numlinepar++;
             } /* end k*/
           } /*end j */
         } /* end i */
       } /* end itimes */
      
       fflush(ficlog);
       fflush(ficres);
      
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
      
       estepm=0;
       fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
       if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
       if (fage <= 2) {
         bage = ageminpar;
         fage = agemaxpar;
       }
      
       fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
       fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
      
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
      
       fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
       fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
      
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
      
      
       dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
       dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
      
       fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
       fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);  
       fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);  
      
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         puts(line);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
      
       fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
      
      
      
       /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
       /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
      
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
      
       printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                    model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                    jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
        
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
    
       free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);  
       free_lvector(num,1,n);
       free_vector(agedc,1,n);
       /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       fclose(ficparo);
       fclose(ficres);
   
   
       /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
    
       strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
       strcat(filerespl,fileres);
       if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       pstamp(ficrespl);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
       fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
    
       prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
       agebase=ageminpar;
       agelim=agemaxpar;
       ftolpl=1.e-10;
       i1=cptcoveff;
       if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
           printf("\n#******");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
           printf("******\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
          
           for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       fclose(ficrespl);
   
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
    
       strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
       if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
    
       stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
       /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
       agelim=AGESUP;
       hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
   
       /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
       pstamp(ficrespij);
       fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
             fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
          
           for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
   
             /*      nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
   
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                   fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
               fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
   
       varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
   
       fclose(ficrespij);
   
       probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
           for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
             probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
       /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
       /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
         /*      }  */
         /*      else{ */
         /*        erreur=108; */
         /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*      } */
       }
    
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
       strcpy(filerest,"t");
       strcat(filerest,fileres);
       if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
   
   
       strcpy(filerese,"e");
       strcat(filerese,fileres);
       if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
   
       strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
       strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
       if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
   
       strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
       strcat(filerescve,fileres);
       if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
   
       strcpy(fileresv,"v");
       strcat(fileresv,fileres);
       if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
       /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
       prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
           ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       */
   
       if (mobilav!=0) {
         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
         if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
           fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
           printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         }
       }
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
             fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
             fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);  
           cvevsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);  
    
           vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav, strstart);
           if(popbased==1){
             varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav, strstart);
           }
   
           pstamp(ficrest);
           fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n# Age ( e.. (std) ");
           for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
           epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
           for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             if (popbased==1) {
               if(mobilav ==0){
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
               }else{ /* mobilav */
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
               }
             }
          
             fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
             for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
               for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                 epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                 /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
               }
               epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
             }
   
             for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                 vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
             }
             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
         }
       }
       free_vector(weight,1,n);
       free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
       free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_ivector(cod,1,n);
       free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
       fclose(ficreseij);
       fclose(ficresstdeij);
       fclose(ficrescveij);
       fclose(ficresvij);
       fclose(ficrest);
       fclose(ficpar);
    
       /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/  
   
       strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
       strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
       if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
         exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
             fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
        
           varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
           free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         }
       }
   
       fclose(ficresvpl);
   
       /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
       if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
     free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
       free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
       /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
       free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
   
       free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
       free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
       free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
   
       free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
       free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10);
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
    
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
     tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend);
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
   
      printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
      if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
       printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
     if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
       printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
     sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
   #ifndef UNIX
     sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
   #endif
     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #ifdef UNIX
       strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
       if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #endif
     }else
       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
    
     sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
   
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf("\n Problem with gnuplot\n");
     }
     printf(" Wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') {
         printf("Starting browser with: %s",optionfilehtm);fflush(stdout);
         system(optionfilehtm);
       }
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }
   
   
   

Removed from v.1.72  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.125


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