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version 1.30, 2002/03/08 16:17:18 version 1.97, 2004/02/20 13:25:42
Line 1 Line 1
 /* $Id$  /* $Id$
    Interpolated Markov Chain    $State$
     $Log$
   Short summary of the programme:    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
      Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from    suppressed.
   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a  
   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change  
   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a    * imach.c (Repository):
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the  
   probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore    Just cleaning
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where  
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the    (Module): Version 0.96b
   convergence.  
     Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an  
   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.      * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
     (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h    helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
   states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,  
   semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   hPijx.    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
      mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).    of the covariance matrix to be input.
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.  
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
   from the European Union.    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and  
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .    Version 0.96
   **********************************************************************/  
      Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
 #include <math.h>    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
 #include <stdio.h>    routine fileappend.
 #include <stdlib.h>  
 #include <unistd.h>    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
 #define MAXLINE 256    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
 #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
 /*#define DEBUG*/    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
 #define windows    interview.
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
     memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    truncation)
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
   
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
 #define MAXN 20000    parcimony.
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
 #define AGESUP 130  
 #define AGEBASE 40    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
     *** empty log message ***
   
 int erreur; /* Error number */    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
 int nvar;    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;  
 int npar=NPARMAX;  */
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */  /*
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */     Interpolated Markov Chain
 int ncovmodel, ncov;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */  
 int popbased=0;    Short summary of the programme:
     
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
 int mle, weightopt;    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
 FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop;    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
 FILE *ficreseij;    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
  FILE  *ficresvij;    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
  FILE  *ficresvpl;    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
     you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
 #define NR_END 1    convergence.
 #define FREE_ARG char*  
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
     multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
 #define NRANSI    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
 #define ITMAX 200    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
     account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
 #define TOL 2.0e-4  
     hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
     semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
 #define GOLD 1.618034    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    hPijx.
   
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    of the life expectancies. It also computes the stable prevalence. 
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    
      Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
     from the European Union.
 static double sqrarg;    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
   
 int imx;    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
 int stepm;    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/    
     **********************************************************************/
 int m,nb;  /*
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;    main
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    read parameterfile
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    read datafile
 double dateintmean=0;    concatwav
     freqsummary
 double *weight;    if (mle >= 1)
 int **s; /* Status */      mlikeli
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    print results files
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;    if mle==1 
        computes hessian
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */        begin-prev-date,...
     open gnuplot file
 /**************** split *************************/    open html file
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )    stable prevalence
 {     for age prevalim()
    char *s;                             /* pointer */    h Pij x
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */    variance of p varprob
     forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */    health expectancies
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    Variance-covariance of DFLE
 #ifdef windows    prevalence()
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */     movingaverage()
 #else    varevsij() 
    s = strrchr( path, '/' );            /* find last / */    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
 #endif    total life expectancies
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    Variance of stable prevalence
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */   end
       extern char       *getwd( );  */
   
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {  
 #else  
       extern char       *getcwd( );   
   #include <math.h>
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {  #include <stdio.h>
 #endif  #include <stdlib.h>
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );  #include <unistd.h>
       }  
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */  #include <sys/time.h>
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */  #include <time.h>
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */  #include "timeval.h"
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */  
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );  /* #include <libintl.h> */
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */  /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */  
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */  #define MAXLINE 256
    }  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
 #ifdef windows  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }  /*#define DEBUG*/
 #else  /*#define windows*/
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
 #endif  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
    s = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */  
    s++;  #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
    strcpy(ext,s);                       /* save extension */  #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
    l1= strlen( name);  
    l2= strlen( s)+1;  #define NINTERVMAX 8
    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
    finame[l1-l2]= 0;  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */  #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
 }  #define MAXN 20000
   #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
   #define AGESUP 130
 /******************************************/  #define AGEBASE 40
   #ifdef unix
 void replace(char *s, char*t)  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
 {  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   int i;  #else
   int lg=20;  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   i=0;  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
   lg=strlen(t);  #endif
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  
     (s[i] = t[i]);  /* $Id$ */
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';  /* $State$ */
   }  
 }  char version[]="Imach version 0.96d, February 2004, INED-EUROREVES ";
   char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)  int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
 {  int nvar;
   int i,j=0;  int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
   int lg=20;  int npar=NPARMAX;
   i=0;  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
   lg=strlen(s);  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;  int popbased=0;
   }  
   return j;  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
 }  int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
   int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)  int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
 {                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
   int i,lg,j,p=0;  int mle, weightopt;
   i=0;  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;  int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
   }             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
   double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
   lg=strlen(t);  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
     (u[j] = t[j]);  FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
   }  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
      u[p]='\0';  int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
   double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {  long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   }  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
 }  FILE *ficresilk;
   FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
 /********************** nrerror ********************/  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
   FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
 void nrerror(char error_text[])  FILE *ficreseij;
 {  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");  FILE  *ficresvij;
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
   exit(1);  FILE  *ficresvpl;
 }  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
 /*********************** vector *******************/  char title[MAXLINE];
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
   double *v;  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");  int  outcmd=0;
   return v-nl+NR_END;  
 }  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
 /************************ free vector ******************/  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
 }  
   char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
 /************************ivector *******************************/  
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)  struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
 {  struct timezone tzp;
   int *v;  extern int gettimeofday();
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");  long time_value;
   return v-nl+NR_END;  extern long time();
 }  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
   
 /******************free ivector **************************/  #define NR_END 1
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)  #define FREE_ARG char*
 {  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  
 }  #define NRANSI 
   #define ITMAX 200 
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/  
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */  
 {  #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
   int **m;  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
    
   /* allocate pointers to rows */  #define GOLD 1.618034 
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));  #define GLIMIT 100.0 
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
   m += NR_END;  
   m -= nrl;  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
    #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
    #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */    
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  static double sqrarg;
    #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
    
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */  int imx; 
   return m;  int stepm;
 }  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
   
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/  int estepm;
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)  /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
       int **m;  
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;  int m,nb;
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */  long *num;
 {  int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));  double **pmmij, ***probs;
 }  double dateintmean=0;
   
 /******************* matrix *******************************/  double *weight;
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  int **s; /* Status */
 {  double *agedc, **covar, idx;
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;  int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
   double **m;  
   double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  
   m += NR_END;  /**************** split *************************/
   m -= nrl;  static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
   {
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");    int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
     if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
   return m;    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */
 }      /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
         printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
 /*************************free matrix ************************/      /* get current working directory */
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
 {      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));        return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));      }
 }      strcpy( name, path );               /* we've got it */
     } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
 {      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
   double ***m;      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    }
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
   m += NR_END;    /*#ifdef windows
   m -= nrl;    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
   #else
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  #endif
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    */
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
     ss++;
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    strcpy(ext,ss);                       /* save extension */
     l1= strlen( name);
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    l2= strlen(ss)+1;
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;    finame[l1-l2]= 0;
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;    return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  }
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;  
    
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {  /******************************************/
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;  
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;  {
   }    int i;
   return m;    int lg=0;
 }    i=0;
     lg=strlen(t);
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)      (s[i] = t[i]);
 {      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));    }
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  }
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  
 }  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
   {
 /***************** f1dim *************************/    int i,j=0;
 extern int ncom;    int lg=20;
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;    i=0;
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);    lg=strlen(s);
      for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
 double f1dim(double x)    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
 {    }
   int j;    return j;
   double f;  }
   double *xt;  
    void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
   xt=vector(1,ncom);  {
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];    /* cuts string t into u and v where u is ended by char occ excluding it
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);       and v is after occ excluding it too : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",2)
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);       gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
   return f;    int i,lg,j,p=0;
 }    i=0;
     for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
 /*****************brent *************************/      if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)    }
 {  
   int iter;    lg=strlen(t);
   double a,b,d,etemp;    for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;      (u[j] = t[j]);
   double ftemp;    }
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;       u[p]='\0';
   double e=0.0;  
       for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);      if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);    }
   x=w=v=bx;  }
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);  
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {  /********************** nrerror ********************/
     xm=0.5*(a+b);  
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);  void nrerror(char error_text[])
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/  {
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
 #ifdef DEBUG    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */  }
 #endif  /*********************** vector *******************/
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){  double *vector(int nl, int nh)
       *xmin=x;  {
       return fx;    double *v;
     }    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     ftemp=fu;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {    return v-nl+NR_END;
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);  }
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);  
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;  /************************ free vector ******************/
       q=2.0*(q-r);  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;  {
       q=fabs(q);    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
       etemp=e;  }
       e=d;  
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))  /************************ivector *******************************/
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
       else {  {
         d=p/q;    int *v;
         u=x+d;    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);    return v-nl+NR_END;
       }  }
     } else {  
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  /******************free ivector **************************/
     }  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));  {
     fu=(*f)(u);    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
     if (fu <= fx) {  }
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;  
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)  /************************lvector *******************************/
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
         } else {  {
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;    long *v;
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
             v=w;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
             w=u;    return v-nl+NR_END;
             fv=fw;  }
             fw=fu;  
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {  /******************free lvector **************************/
             v=u;  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
             fv=fu;  {
           }    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
         }  }
   }  
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
   *xmin=x;  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
   return fx;       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
 }  { 
     long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/    int **m; 
     
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
             double (*func)(double))    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
 {    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;    m += NR_END; 
   double fu;    m -= nrl; 
      
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);    
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
   if (*fb > *fa) {    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
       }    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);    
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
   while (*fb > *fc) {    
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);    return m; 
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/  } 
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));  
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {  void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
       fu=(*func)(u);        int **m;
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {        long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
       fu=(*func)(u);       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
       if (fu < *fc) {  { 
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))    free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
           }  } 
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {  
       u=ulim;  /******************* matrix *******************************/
       fu=(*func)(u);  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
     } else {  {
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
       fu=(*func)(u);    double **m;
     }  
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
       }    m += NR_END;
 }    m -= nrl;
   
 /*************** linmin ************************/    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
 int ncom;    m[nrl] += NR_END;
 double *pcom,*xicom;    m[nrl] -= ncl;
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);  
      for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))    return m;
 {    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) 
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,     */
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);  }
   double f1dim(double x);  
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,  /*************************free matrix ************************/
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
   int j;  {
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
   double fx,fb,fa;    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
    }
   ncom=n;  
   pcom=vector(1,n);  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
   xicom=vector(1,n);  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
   nrfunc=func;  {
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
     pcom[j]=p[j];    double ***m;
     xicom[j]=xi[j];  
   }    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   ax=0.0;    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
   xx=1.0;    m += NR_END;
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);    m -= nrl;
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);  
 #ifdef DEBUG    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
 #endif    m[nrl] += NR_END;
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    m[nrl] -= ncl;
     xi[j] *= xmin;  
     p[j] += xi[j];    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   }  
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
 }    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
     m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
 /*************** powell ************************/    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
             double (*func)(double []))    
 {    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
               double (*func)(double []));      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
   int i,ibig,j;        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;    }
   double fp,fptt;    return m; 
   double *xits;    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
   pt=vector(1,n);             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
   ptt=vector(1,n);    */
   xit=vector(1,n);  }
   xits=vector(1,n);  
   *fret=(*func)(p);  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {  {
     fp=(*fret);    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
     ibig=0;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     del=0.0;    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);  }
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)  
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);  /*************** function subdirf ***********/
     printf("\n");  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  {
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       fptt=(*fret);    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
 #ifdef DEBUG    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
 #endif    return tmpout;
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  }
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
         ibig=i;  {
       }    
 #ifdef DEBUG    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    strcat(tmpout,"/");
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);    strcat(tmpout,preop);
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       }    return tmpout;
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  }
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);  
       printf("\n");  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
 #endif  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
     }  {
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {    
 #ifdef DEBUG    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       int k[2],l;    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
       k[0]=1;    strcat(tmpout,"/");
       k[1]=-1;    strcat(tmpout,preop);
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);    return tmpout;
       printf("\n");  }
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {  
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  /***************** f1dim *************************/
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];  extern int ncom; 
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
         }  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));   
       }  double f1dim(double x) 
 #endif  { 
     int j; 
     double f;
       free_vector(xit,1,n);    double *xt; 
       free_vector(xits,1,n);   
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
       free_vector(pt,1,n);    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
       return;    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
     }    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");    return f; 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  } 
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];  
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];  /*****************brent *************************/
       pt[j]=p[j];  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
     }  { 
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);    int iter; 
     if (fptt < fp) {    double a,b,d,etemp;
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);    double fu,fv,fw,fx;
       if (t < 0.0) {    double ftemp;
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    double e=0.0; 
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];   
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];    a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
         }    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
 #ifdef DEBUG    x=w=v=bx; 
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);      xm=0.5*(a+b); 
         printf("\n");      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
 #endif      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
       }      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
     }      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
   }  #ifdef DEBUG
 }      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
       fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
   #endif
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
 {        *xmin=x; 
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit        return fx; 
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */      } 
       ftemp=fu;
   int i, ii,j,k;      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
   double **matprod2();        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
   double **newm;        q=2.0*(q-r); 
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
         q=fabs(q); 
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)        etemp=e; 
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){        e=d; 
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
     }          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
         else { 
    cov[1]=1.;          d=p/q; 
            u=x+d; 
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */          if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
     newm=savm;        } 
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */      } else { 
      cov[2]=agefin;        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
        } 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];      fu=(*f)(u); 
         /*printf("ij=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf\n",ij, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k]);*/      if (fu <= fx) { 
       }        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];          SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)          } else { 
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];            if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
             if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/              v=w; 
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/              w=u; 
               fv=fw; 
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);              fw=fu; 
             } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
     savm=oldm;              v=u; 
     oldm=newm;              fv=fu; 
     maxmax=0.;            } 
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){          } 
       min=1.;    } 
       max=0.;    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {    *xmin=x; 
         sumnew=0;    return fx; 
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];  } 
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);  
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);  
       }  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
       maxmin=max-min;              double (*func)(double)) 
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);  { 
     }    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){    double fu; 
       return prlim;   
     }    *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
   }    *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
 }    if (*fb > *fa) { 
       SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/        SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
         } 
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
 {    *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
   double s1, s2;    while (*fb > *fc) { 
   /*double t34;*/      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
       u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){        (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/        fu=(*func)(u); 
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/        fu=(*func)(u); 
       }        if (fu < *fc) { 
       ps[i][j]=s2;          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/            SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
     }            } 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){        u=ulim; 
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];        fu=(*func)(u); 
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/      } else { 
       }        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
       ps[i][j]=s2;        fu=(*func)(u); 
     }      } 
   }      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/        SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
         } 
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  } 
      s1=0;  
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  /*************** linmin ************************/
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  int ncom; 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  double *pcom,*xicom;
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)   
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  { 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
   } /* end i */    double f1dim(double x); 
     void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){                double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){    int j; 
       ps[ii][jj]=0;    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
       ps[ii][ii]=1;    double fx,fb,fa;
     }   
   }    ncom=n; 
     pcom=vector(1,n); 
     xicom=vector(1,n); 
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){    nrfunc=func; 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
    }      xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
     printf("\n ");    } 
     }    ax=0.0; 
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/    xx=1.0; 
 /*    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
   goto end;*/  #ifdef DEBUG
     return ps;    printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
 }    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
   #endif
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       xi[j] *= xmin; 
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)      p[j] += xi[j]; 
 {    } 
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times    free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized  } 
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns  
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
   long i, j, k;  {
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
     sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
   return out;    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
 }    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
     sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
     return ascdiff;
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/  }
   
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )  /*************** powell ************************/
 {  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month              double (*func)(double [])) 
      duration (i.e. until  { 
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step                double (*func)(double [])); 
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).    int i,ibig,j; 
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
      included manually here.    double fp,fptt;
     double *xits;
      */    int niterf, itmp;
   
   int i, j, d, h, k;    pt=vector(1,n); 
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];    ptt=vector(1,n); 
   double **newm;    xit=vector(1,n); 
     xits=vector(1,n); 
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */    *fret=(*func)(p); 
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      fp=(*fret); 
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      ibig=0; 
     }      del=0.0; 
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */      last_time=curr_time;
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){      (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
       newm=savm;      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */      fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
       cov[1]=1.;      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)        fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];      }
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)      printf("\n");
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
       if(*iter <=3){
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/        tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tmf));
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));        forecast_time=curr_time;
       savm=oldm;        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
       oldm=newm;        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')
     }          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];        for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);          forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
          */          tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
       }  /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
   } /* end h */          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
   return po;          itmp = strlen(strfor);
 }          if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
           strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
           printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s or\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s or\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
 double func( double *x)        }
 {      }
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
   double **out;        fptt=(*fret); 
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */  #ifdef DEBUG
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */        printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   long ipmx;        fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   /*extern weight */  #endif
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
   */          del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
   cov[1]=1.;          ibig=i; 
         } 
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;  #ifdef DEBUG
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
         newm=savm;        }
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {          printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];          fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
         }        }
                printf("\n");
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  #endif
         savm=oldm;      } 
         oldm=newm;      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
          #ifdef DEBUG
                int k[2],l;
       } /* end mult */        k[0]=1;
              k[1]=-1;
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
       ipmx +=1;        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
       sw += weight[i];          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
     } /* end of wave */        }
   } /* end of individual */        printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
   return -l;            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
 }            fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
           }
           printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
         }
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))  #endif
 {  
   int i,j, iter;  
   double **xi,*delti;        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
   double fret;        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)        return; 
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      } 
   printf("Powell\n");      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));        pt[j]=p[j]; 
       } 
 }      fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
       if (fptt < fp) { 
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))        if (t < 0.0) { 
 {          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   double **hess;            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
   int i, j,jk;            xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
   int *indx;          }
   #ifdef DEBUG
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);          }
           printf("\n");
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  #endif
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);        }
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);      } 
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/    } 
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/  } 
   }  
    /**** Prevalence limit (stable prevalence)  ****************/
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
       if (j>i) {  {
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);       matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];      
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/    int i, ii,j,k;
       }    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
     }    double **matprod2();
   }    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
   printf("\n");    double **newm;
     double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");  
      for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   x=vector(1,npar);      }
   indx=ivector(1,npar);  
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)     cov[1]=1.;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];   
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
     for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {      newm=savm;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
     x[j]=1;       cov[2]=agefin;
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);    
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
     }          /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
   }        }
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);        /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
     }        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
     printf("\n");        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
   }      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
   
   /* Recompute Inverse */      savm=oldm;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)      oldm=newm;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];      maxmax=0.;
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
         min=1.;
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");        max=0.;
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {          sumnew=0;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
     x[j]=1;          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
       y[i][j]=x[i];        }
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);        maxmin=max-min;
     }        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
     printf("\n");      }
   }      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
   */        return prlim;
       }
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);    }
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);  }
   free_vector(x,1,npar);  
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);  
   double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
   {
 }    double s1, s2;
     /*double t34;*/
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/    int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])  
 {      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
   int i;      for(j=1; j<i;j++){
   int l=1, lmax=20;        for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
   double k1,k2;          /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   double res;          /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;        }
   double fx;        ps[i][j]=s2;
   int k=0,kmax=10;        /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
   double l1;      }
       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   fx=func(x);        for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){          /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/
     l1=pow(10,l);        }
     delts=delt;        ps[i][j]=s2;
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){      }
       delt = delta*(l1*k);    }
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;      /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
       k1=func(p2)-fx;  
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;    for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
       k2=func(p2)-fx;       s1=0;
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */      for(j=1; j<i; j++)
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */        s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
            for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
 #ifdef DEBUG        s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);      ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
 #endif      for(j=1; j<i; j++)
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){      for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
         k=kmax;        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
       }      /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */    } /* end i */
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;  
       }    for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){      for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
         delts=delt;        ps[ii][jj]=0;
       }        ps[ii][ii]=1;
     }      }
   }    }
   delti[theta]=delts;  
   return res;  
      /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
 }      for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
        printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)     }
 {      printf("\n ");
   int i;      }
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;      printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;  /*
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];    for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
   int k;    goto end;*/
       return ps;
   fx=func(x);  }
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {  
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;  
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
     k1=func(p2)-fx;  {
      /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;       b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
     k2=func(p2)-fx;       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
         a pointer to pointers identical to out */
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    long i, j, k;
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
     k3=func(p2)-fx;      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
          for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;  
     k4=func(p2)-fx;    return out;
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */  }
 #ifdef DEBUG  
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);  
 #endif  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
   }  
   return res;  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
 }  {
     /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
 {       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
   int i,imax,j,k;       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
   double big,dum,sum,temp;       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
   double *vv;       for the memory).
         Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
   vv=vector(1,n);       included manually here. 
   *d=1.0;  
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {       */
     big=0.0;  
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)    int i, j, d, h, k;
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");    double **newm;
     vv[i]=1.0/big;  
   }    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       sum=a[i][j];        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       a[i][j]=sum;      }
     }    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
     big=0.0;    for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
       sum=a[i][j];        newm=savm;
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];        cov[1]=1.;
       a[i][j]=sum;        cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
         big=dum;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
         imax=i;          cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
       }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
     }          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
     if (j != imax) {  
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {  
         dum=a[imax][k];        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
         a[j][k]=dum;        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
       }                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
       *d = -(*d);        savm=oldm;
       vv[imax]=vv[j];        oldm=newm;
     }      }
     indx[j]=imax;      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
     if (j != n) {          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);          /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;           */
     }        }
   }    } /* end h */
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */    return po;
 ;  }
 }  
   
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
 {  double func( double *x)
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;  {
   double sum;    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
      double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    double **out;
     ip=indx[i];    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
     sum=b[ip];    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
     b[ip]=b[i];    int s1, s2;
     if (ii)    double bbh, survp;
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    long ipmx;
     else if (sum) ii=i;    /*extern weight */
     b[i]=sum;    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
   }    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
     sum=b[i];      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    */
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];    cov[1]=1.;
   }  
 }    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   
 /************ Frequencies ********************/    if(mle==1){
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
 {  /* Some frequencies */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
          for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   double *pp;              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   FILE *ficresp;            }
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
              newm=savm;
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);            }
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     exit(0);            savm=oldm;
   }            oldm=newm;
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);          } /* end mult */
   j1=0;        
           /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
   j=cptcoveff;          /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm.
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
            * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
        j1++;           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the
        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);           * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
          scanf("%d", i);*/           * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
         for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)             * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)             * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
            for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
              freq[i][jk][m]=0;           */
           s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
         dateintsum=0;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         k2cpt=0;          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {          /* bias is positive if real duration
          bool=1;           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
          if  (cptcovn>0) {           */
            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
                bool=0;            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known then the contribution
          }               to the likelihood is the probability to die between last step unit time and current 
          if (bool==1) {               step unit time, which is also the differences between probability to die before dh 
            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){               and probability to die before dh-stepm . 
              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
              if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;          health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {          introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
                  k2cpt++;          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
                }          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
           and month of death but the probability to survive from last
              }          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
            }          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
          }          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
        }          mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
                  which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
        fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);          lower mortality.
             */
         if  (cptcovn>0) {            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");          }else{
          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
        fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
         }          } 
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");          /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
                  ipmx +=1;
   for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){          sw += weight[i];
     if(i==(int)agemax+3)          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
       printf("Total");        } /* end of wave */
     else      } /* end of individual */
       printf("Age %d", i);    }  else if(mle==2){
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     }          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         pos += freq[jk][m][i];              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)            }
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
       else            newm=savm;
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
      for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            }
       for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
      }            savm=oldm;
             oldm=newm;
     for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)          } /* end mult */
       pos += pp[jk];        
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
       if(pos>=1.e-5)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
       else          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);          ipmx +=1;
       if( i <= (int) agemax){          sw += weight[i];
         if(pos>=1.e-5){          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);        } /* end of wave */
           probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;      } /* end of individual */
           /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/    }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
         }      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       else        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
           fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
       }          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     }            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);            }
     if(i <= (int) agemax)          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
       fprintf(ficresp,"\n");            newm=savm;
     printf("\n");            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     }              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
  }            }
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   fclose(ficresp);            savm=oldm;
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);            oldm=newm;
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);          } /* end mult */
         
   /* End of Freq */          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
 }          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
 /************ Prevalence ********************/          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
 void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)          ipmx +=1;
 {  /* Some frequencies */          sw += weight[i];
            ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;        } /* end of wave */
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */      } /* end of individual */
   double *pp;    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
   double pos, k2;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
              for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   j1=0;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
              }
   j=cptcoveff;          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}            newm=savm;
              cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       j1++;            }
            
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)              out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)                           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)            savm=oldm;
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;            oldm=newm;
                } /* end mult */
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {        
         bool=1;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
         if  (cptcovn>0) {          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
               bool=0;          }else{
         }            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
         if (bool==1) {          }
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){          ipmx +=1;
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);          sw += weight[i];
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;        } /* end of wave */
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];      } /* end of individual */
               /* freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3+1)] += weight[i];  */    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
             }      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
           }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         }        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
       }          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
         for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
               pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];            }
           }          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            newm=savm;
             for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
         }              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                    }
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          
            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
          }            savm=oldm;
                      oldm=newm;
          for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];          } /* end mult */
         
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){                    s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
            if( i <= (int) agemax){          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
              if(pos>=1.e-5){          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
                probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;          ipmx +=1;
              }          sw += weight[i];
            }          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
          }          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
                  } /* end of wave */
         }      } /* end of individual */
     }    } /* End of if */
   }    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
      /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
      l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);    return -l;
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);  }
    
 }  /* End of Freq */  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
   double funcone( double *x)
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/  {
     /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
 {    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.    double **out;
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i    double llt;
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]    int s1, s2;
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.    double bbh, survp;
      */    /*extern weight */
     /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
   int i, mi, m;    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     */
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;    cov[1]=1.;
   double sum=0.;  
   jmin=1e+5;    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   jmax=-1;  
   jmean=0.;    for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     mi=0;      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     m=firstpass;        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       if(s[m][i]>=1)            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         mw[++mi][i]=m;            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       if(m >=lastpass)          }
         break;        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
       else          newm=savm;
         m++;          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     }/* end while */          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */          }
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
          /* Only death is a correct wave */                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
       mw[mi][i]=m;          savm=oldm;
     }          oldm=newm;
         } /* end mult */
     wav[i]=mi;        
     if(mi==0)        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   }        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
         /* bias is positive if real duration
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){         */
       if (stepm <=0)        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
         dh[mi][i]=1;          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
       else{        } else if (mle==1){
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {        } else if(mle==2){
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
           k=k+1;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
           sum=sum+j;        } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
           /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
           }        } /* End of if */
         }        ipmx +=1;
         else{        sw += weight[i];
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           k=k+1;  /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;        if(globpr){
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %1d %1d %1d %1d %3d %10.6f %6.4f\
           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */   %10.6f %10.6f %10.6f ", \
           sum=sum+j;                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
         }                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
         jk= j/stepm;          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
         jl= j -jk*stepm;            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
         if(jl <= -ju)          }
           dh[mi][i]=jk;          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
         else        }
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;      } /* end of wave */
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)    } /* end of individual */
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
       }    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
     }    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
   }    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
   jmean=sum/k;      gipmx=ipmx;
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);      gsw=sw;
  }    }
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/    return -l;
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)  }
 {  
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;  
   int cptcode=0;  /*************** function likelione ***********/
   cptcoveff=0;  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
    {
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;       the selection of individuals/waves and
        to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {       Plotting could be done.
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {     */
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);    int k;
       Ndum[ij]++;  
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
     }      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
       if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     }      }
     ij=1;      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
       fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
       /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {      fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;    }
           ij++;  
         }    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;    if(*globpri !=0){
       }        fclose(ficresilk);
     }      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
   }        fflush(fichtm); 
     } 
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;    return;
   }
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {  
       ij=Tvar[i];  
       Ndum[ij]++;  /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
     }  
   void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
  ij=1;  {
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {    int i,j, iter;
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncov)){    double **xi;
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;    double fret;
      ij++;    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
    }    char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
  }    xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
     cptcoveff=ij-1;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
 }        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/    strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
     strcat(filerespow,fileres);
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
 {      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
   /* Health expectancies */      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;    }
   double age, agelim,hf;    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
   double ***p3mat;    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);  
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    fclose(ficrespow);
     printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /*  Every j years of age (in month) */    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
   
   agelim=AGESUP;  }
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
     /* Typically if 20 years = 20*12/6=40 stepm */  {
     /*if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
 hstepm=1;    double **hess;
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically 40/4=10 */    int i, j,jk;
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    int *indx;
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored  
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);      double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);
 hf=stepm/YEARM;    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
 /*printf("stepm=%d nhstepm=%d hstepm=%d age=%lf ",stepm, nhstepm, hstepm, age);*/    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){  
           eij[i][j][(int)age] +=hf*(p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0;    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
         }    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
        for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
     /* hf=1;      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
        if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;*/      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
 hf=stepm/YEARM;      hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);
        /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );      /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    }
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){    
         fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age]);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
       }      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");        if (j>i) { 
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
   }          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
 }          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);
           hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
 /************ Variance ******************/          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)        }
 {      }
   /* Variance of health expectancies */    }
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    printf("\n");
   double **newm;    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   double **dnewm,**doldm;  
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
   int k, cptcode;    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
   double *xp;    
   double **gp, **gm;    a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;    y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   double ***p3mat;    x=vector(1,npar);
   double age,agelim;    indx=ivector(1,npar);
   int theta;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");  
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);      x[j]=1;
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
   xp=vector(1,npar);        matcov[i][j]=x[i];
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);      }
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    }
    
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */    printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
   agelim = AGESUP;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */        printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */      }
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      printf("\n");
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);    }
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  
     /* Recompute Inverse */
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
       }  
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);  
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
       if (popbased==1) {      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      x[j]=1;
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
       }      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
          y[i][j]=x[i];
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)      }
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];      printf("\n");
         }      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       }    }
        */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */  
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);      free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    free_vector(x,1,npar);
      free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
       if (popbased==1) {    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];  
       }  }
   
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){  double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)  {
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];    int i;
         }    int l=1, lmax=20;
       }    double k1,k2;
     double p2[NPARMAX+1];
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)    double res;
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];    double fx;
         }    int k=0,kmax=10;
     } /* End theta */    double l1;
   
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    fx=func(x);
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)    for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)      l1=pow(10,l);
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)      delts=delt;
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
         delt = delta*(l1*k);
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)        k1=func(p2)-fx;
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){        k2=func(p2)-fx;
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);        
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  #ifdef DEBUG
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
       }  #endif
     }        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
     h=1;        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
     if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;          k=kmax;
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );        }
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){          k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);        }
       }        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");          delts=delt;
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);        }
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);      }
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);    }
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    delti[theta]=delts;
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    return res; 
   } /* End age */    
    }
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);  
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);  double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  {
     int i;
 }    int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
     double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)    int k;
 {  
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */    fx=func(x);
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
   double **newm;      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
   double **dnewm,**doldm;      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
   int k, cptcode;      k1=func(p2)-fx;
   double *xp;    
   double *gp, *gm;      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
   double **gradg, **trgradg;      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
   double age,agelim;      k2=func(p2)-fx;
   int theta;    
          p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");      k3=func(p2)-fx;
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
       k4=func(p2)-fx;
   xp=vector(1,npar);      res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  #ifdef DEBUG
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */  #endif
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    }
   agelim = AGESUP;    return res;
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  }
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */  
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);  { 
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);    int i,imax,j,k; 
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);    double big,dum,sum,temp; 
     double *vv; 
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){   
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */    vv=vector(1,n); 
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    *d=1.0; 
       }    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);      big=0.0; 
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
          if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    } 
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];        sum=a[i][j]; 
         for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)        a[i][j]=sum; 
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];      } 
     } /* End theta */      big=0.0; 
       for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);        sum=a[i][j]; 
         for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)        a[i][j]=sum; 
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
           big=dum; 
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)          imax=i; 
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;        } 
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);      } 
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);      if (j != imax) { 
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */          dum=a[imax][k]; 
           a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );          a[j][k]=dum; 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        } 
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));        *d = -(*d); 
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");        vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);      } 
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);      indx[j]=imax; 
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);      if (j != n) { 
   } /* End age */        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
         for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      } 
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    } 
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
   ;
 }  } 
   
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/  void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
 void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)  { 
 {    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
   int i, j;    double sum; 
   int k=0, cptcode;   
   double **dnewm,**doldm;    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   double *xp;      ip=indx[i]; 
   double *gp, *gm;      sum=b[ip]; 
   double **gradg, **trgradg;      b[ip]=b[i]; 
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];      if (ii) 
   int theta;        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];      else if (sum) ii=i; 
       b[i]=sum; 
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");    } 
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {      sum=b[i]; 
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
   }      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
   printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);    } 
    } 
   
   xp=vector(1,npar);  /************ Frequencies ********************/
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint)
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));  {  /* Some frequencies */
      
   cov[1]=1;    int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){    int first;
     cov[2]=age;    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);    double *pp, **prop;
     trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
     gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    FILE *ficresp;
     gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
        
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    strcpy(fileresp,"p");
          strcat(fileresp,fileres);
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
          printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
       k=0;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
       for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){      exit(0);
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){    }
            k=k+1;    freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
           gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];    j1=0;
         }    
       }    j=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)  
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    first=1;
      
     for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
       k=0;        j1++;
       for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){          scanf("%d", i);*/
           k=k+1;        for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
           gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
         }            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
       }              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
        
        for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)      for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
            gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     }          prop[i][m]=0;
         
      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)        dateintsum=0;
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)        k2cpt=0;
       trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
            bool=1;
      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);          if  (cptcovn>0) {
      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
               if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);                bool=0;
           }
      k=0;          if (bool==1){
      for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
        for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
          k=k+1;              /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
          gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
         }                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
      }                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                      if (m<lastpass) {
      /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
                        }
                 
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
      }*/                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
                   k2cpt++;
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);                }
                 /*}*/
   for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){            }
     if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);          }
 if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);        }
   }         
         /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));  
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        if  (cptcovn>0) {
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
 }          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
  free_vector(xp,1,npar);        }
 fclose(ficresprob);        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
           fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
 }        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
         
 /******************* Printing html file ***********/        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
 void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char optionfile[],char optionfilehtm[],char rfileres[] ){          if(i==iagemax+3){
   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
   FILE *fichtm;          }else{
   /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/            if(first==1){
               first=0;
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);              printf("See log file for details...\n");
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");            }
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);          }
   }          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
             for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
  fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> <font size=\"6\">Imach, Version 0.71 </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
 Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>          }
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
 Total number of observations=%d <br>            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
 <li>Outputs files<br><br>\n              if(first==1){
         - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n              printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
 - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>              }
         - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
         - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>            }else{
         - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>              if(first==1)
         - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
         - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
         - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>            }
         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>          }
         - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>  
         - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
         <br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
                pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
 fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");          }       
           for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
  m=cptcoveff;            pos += pp[jk];
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}            posprop += prop[jk][i];
           }
  jj1=0;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){            if(pos>=1.e-5){
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){              if(first==1)
        jj1++;                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
        if (cptcovn > 0) {              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");            }else{
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)              if(first==1)
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
        }            }
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>            if( i <= iagemax){
 <img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);                  if(pos>=1.e-5){
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
        }              }
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {              else
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>            }
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);            }
      }          
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
      }              if(first==1)
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
 <img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);              }
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");          if(i <= iagemax)
    }            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
    }          if(first==1)
 fclose(fichtm);            printf("Others in log...\n");
 }          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
 /******************* Gnuplot file **************/      }
 void printinggnuplot(char fileres[],char optionfilefiname[],char optionfile[],char optionfilegnuplot[], double agemin, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){    }
     dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;   
     fclose(ficresp);
   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);    free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".plt");    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);    /* End of Freq */
   }  }
   
 #ifdef windows  /************ Prevalence ********************/
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
 #endif  {  
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
         in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
  /* 1eme*/       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {    */
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {   
     int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
 #ifdef windows    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    double *pp, **prop;
 #endif    double pos,posprop; 
 #ifdef unix    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);    int iagemin, iagemax;
 #endif  
     iagemin= (int) agemin;
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    iagemax= (int) agemax;
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
 }    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    j1=0;
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    j=cptcoveff;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
 }    
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");        j1++;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");        
 }          for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
 #ifdef unix            prop[i][m]=0.0;
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");       
 #endif        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);          bool=1;
    }          if  (cptcovn>0) {
   }            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
   /*2 eme*/              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
                 bool=0;
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {          } 
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);          if (bool==1) { 
                for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
       k=2*i;              if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
 }                    /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);                  prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);                } 
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {              }
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");            } /* end selection of waves */
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          }
 }          }
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);          
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");            posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          } 
 }    
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");            if( i <=  iagemax){ 
     }              if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
   }              } 
              } 
   /*3eme*/          }/* end jk */ 
         }/* end i */ 
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {      } /* end i1 */
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {    } /* end k1 */
       k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);    
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
       }  }  /* End of prevalence */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);  
     }  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
     }  
    void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
   /* CV preval stat */  {
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {       Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
       k=3;       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);       dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
        and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)       */
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);  
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);    int i, mi, m;
          /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);    int first;
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;    double sum=0.;
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);    first=0;
       }    jmin=1e+5;
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);      jmax=-1;
       fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    jmean=0.;
     }    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
   }        mi=0;
        m=firstpass;
   /* proba elementaires */      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){        if(s[m][i]>=1)
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){          mw[++mi][i]=m;
       if (k != i) {        if(m >=lastpass)
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){          break;
                else
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);          m++;
           jk++;      }/* end while */
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
         }        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
       }        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
     }           /* Only death is a correct wave */
     }        mw[mi][i]=m;
       }
     for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {  
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemaxpar);      wav[i]=mi;
    i=1;      if(mi==0){
    for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {        nbwarn++;
      k3=i;        if(first==0){
      for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {          printf("Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
        if (k != k2){          first=1;
         fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);        }
 ij=1;        if(first==1){
         for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {        }
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);      } /* end mi==0 */
             ij++;    } /* End individuals */
           }  
           else    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
           fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
         }        if (stepm <=0)
           fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");          dh[mi][i]=1;
                else{
         for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){            if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
           fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
 ij=1;              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
           for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){              if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {              else if(j<0){
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);                nberr++;
             ij++;                printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
           }                j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
           else                printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview.\n  You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
           }                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview.\n  You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
           fprintf(ficgp,")");              }
         }              k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);              if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
         if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");              if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;
         i=i+ncovmodel;              sum=sum+j;
        }              /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
      }              /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
    }            }
    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk);          }
    }          else{
                j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
   fclose(ficgp);            /*      printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
 }  /* end gnuplot */            k=k+1;
             if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
             else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;
 /*************** Moving average **************/            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
 void movingaverage(double agedeb, double fage,double agemin, double ***mobaverage){            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
             if(j<0){
   int i, cpt, cptcod;              nberr++;
     for (agedeb=agemin; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++)              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)            }
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;            sum=sum+j;
              }
     for (agedeb=agemin+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){          jk= j/stepm;
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){          jl= j -jk*stepm;
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];            if(jl==0){
           }              dh[mi][i]=jk;
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;              bh[mi][i]=0;
         }            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
       }                    * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
     }              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
                  bh[mi][i]=ju;
 }            }
           }else{
             if(jl <= -ju){
 /************** Forecasting ******************/              dh[mi][i]=jk;
 prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double agemin, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
                                     * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;                                   */
   int *popage;            }
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;            else{
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
   double ***p3mat;              bh[mi][i]=ju;
   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];            }
             if(dh[mi][i]==0){
  agelim=AGESUP;              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
 calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
               /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
   prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);            }
            } /* end if mle */
          }
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");      } /* end wave */
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);    }
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {    jmean=sum/k;
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
   }    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);   }
   
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
   void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
   if (mobilav==1) {  {
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, agemin, mobaverage);    int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
   }    int cptcode=0;
     cptcoveff=0; 
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;   
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
      for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
   agelim=AGESUP;  
      for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
   hstepm=1;      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum 
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;                                 modality*/ 
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
   anprojmean=yp;        Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);        /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
   mprojmean=yp;        if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable 
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);                                         Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and 
   jprojmean=yp;                                         female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;      }
   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;  
        for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
   fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);        if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
        }
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){  
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){      ij=1; 
       k=k+1;      for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");        for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {          if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);            nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
       }            /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");            
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");            ij++;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);          }
                if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
              }  
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=(anproj2-anproj1);cpt++) {      } 
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");    }  
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);    
    for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){  
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);   for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;     /* Listing of all covariables in staement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
               ij=Tvar[i];
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);     Ndum[ij]++;
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;   }
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);    
           ij=1;
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){   for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {     if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);       Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
             }       ij++;
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {     }
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;   }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                 
                 if (mobilav==1)   cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];  }
                 else {  
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
                 }  
                  void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )
               }  
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){  {
                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);    /* Health expectancies */
                            int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;
               }    double age, agelim, hf;
             }    double ***p3mat,***varhe;
           }    double **dnewm,**doldm;
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    double *xp;
         }    double **gp, **gm;
       }    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
     }    int theta;
   }  
            varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
   fclose(ficresf);    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
 }    
 /************** Forecasting ******************/    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
 populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double agemin, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
   int *popage;        fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;  
   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;    if(estepm < stepm){
   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    else  hstepm=estepm;   
   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
   agelim=AGESUP;     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
   calagedate=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
       * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
   prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
       * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
       * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
   strcat(filerespop,fileres);     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);  
   }    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
        nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
   if (mobilav==1) {       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, agemin, mobaverage);       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
   }       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
        you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    */
      hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
   agelim=AGESUP;  
      agelim=AGESUP;
   hstepm=1;    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;      /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
        nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
   if (popforecast==1) {      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
     }      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
      
     i=1;        /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
          hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
     imx=i;   
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];  
   }      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
   
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){  
       k=k+1;       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);        }
       }        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");    
       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");        cptj=0;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
                  cptj=cptj+1;
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {            for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);                gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
                    }
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){          }
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);        }
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;       
                 
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) 
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);          hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
                
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        cptj=0;
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
             }            cptj=cptj+1;
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {            for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;  
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                            gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
                 if (mobilav==1)            }
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];          }
                 else {        }
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];        for(j=1; j<= nlstate*nlstate; j++)
                 }          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
               }            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){          }
                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;       } 
                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);     
                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/  /* End theta */
               }  
             }       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){  
               kk1=0.;       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                 }            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedate+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];       
             }  
        for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
             if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)        for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);          varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
           }  
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
         }       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
       }       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
          for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
   /******/          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {          for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);              for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){              varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);        }
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;      }
                /* Computing expectancies */
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);            for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {            
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);  /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
             }  
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {          }
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;  
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                    fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];          cptj=0;
               }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
             }          cptj++;
           }          fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        }
         }      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
       }     
    }      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   }      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
        free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
       free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   if (popforecast==1) {    }
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);    printf("\n");
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);  
   }    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   fclose(ficrespop);    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
 }  }
   
 /***********************************************/  /************ Variance ******************/
 /**************** Main Program *****************/  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav)
 /***********************************************/  {
     /* Variance of health expectancies */
 int main(int argc, char *argv[])    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
 {    /* double **newm;*/
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
   double agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;    int k, cptcode;
     double *xp;
   double fret;    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
   double **xi,tmp,delta;    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
     double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */    double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
   double ***p3mat;    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
   int *indx;    double ***p3mat;
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];    double age,agelim, hf;
   char title[MAXLINE];    double ***mobaverage;
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];    int theta;
   char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];    char digit[4];
      char digitp[25];
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];  
     char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];  
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];    if(popbased==1){
   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];      if(mobilav!=0)
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];        strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;      else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */    }
   int c,  h , cpt,l;    else 
   int ju,jl, mi;      strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;  
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;    if (mobilav!=0) {
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;      mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   int hstepm, nhstepm;      if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1;        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;      }
   double ftolpl=FTOL;    }
   double **prlim;  
   double *severity;    strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
   double  *p;    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
   double *delti; /* Scale */    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
   double ***eij, ***vareij;    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
   double *epj, vepp;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
   double kk1, kk2;    }
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
   char version[80]="Imach version 0.71, February 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   char z[1]="c", occ;        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
 #include <sys/time.h>    }  
 #include <time.h>    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
   /* long total_usecs;    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;  /*   } */
      varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */  
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
   printf("\n%s",version);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   if(argc <=1){      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");        fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
     scanf("%s",pathtot);    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
   }  
   else{    xp=vector(1,npar);
     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   }    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/  
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
   chdir(path);    
   replace(pathc,path);    if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/    }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   strcpy(fileres,"r");    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
        nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
   /*---------arguments file --------*/       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
        and note for a fixed period like k years */
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
     goto end;       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
   }       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
        results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
   strcpy(filereso,"o");    */
   strcat(filereso,fileres);    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {    agelim = AGESUP;
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
   }      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);  
   }      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncov, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);        }
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncov,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        if (popbased==1) {
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          if(mobilav ==0){
     puts(line);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     fputs(line,ficparo);              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
   }          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
              }
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);        }
   cptcovn=0;    
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;            for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
            }
   /* Read guess parameters */        }
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);           as a weighted average of prlim.
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        */
     puts(line);        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     fputs(line,ficparo);          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
   }            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        }    
          /* end probability of death */
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);  
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);   
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){        if (popbased==1) {
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);          if(mobilav ==0){
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
       }          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       printf("\n");              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");          }
     }        }
    
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   p=param[1][1];            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
                gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     puts(line);           as a weighted average of prlim.
     fputs(line,ficparo);        */
   }        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   ungetc(c,ficpar);          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
            gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);        }    
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */        /* end probability of death */
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){  
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);          }
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){  
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);        }
       }  
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");      } /* End theta */
       printf("\n");  
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
     }  
   }      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
   delti=delti3[1][1];        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
            for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
     puts(line);          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
     fputs(line,ficparo);    
   }  
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);  
     printf("%s",str);      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
     }              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");        }
     printf("\n");      }
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");    
   }      /* pptj */
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)      matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
            for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
   printf("\n");          varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
       /* end ppptj */
       /*  x centered again */
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
      strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/   
      strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */      if (popbased==1) {
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */        if(mobilav ==0){
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
     }        }else{ /* mobilav */ 
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
     /*-------- data file ----------*/        }
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {      }
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;               
     }      /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
          computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     n= lastobs;         as a weighted average of prlim.
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);      */
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     num=ivector(1,n);        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
     moisnais=vector(1,n);          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
     annais=vector(1,n);      }    
     moisdc=vector(1,n);      /* end probability of death */
     andc=vector(1,n);  
     agedc=vector(1,n);      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
     cod=ivector(1,n);      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
     weight=vector(1,n);        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);        }
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);      } 
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);  
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);      fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     i=1;        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {          fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {        }
              fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
           strcpy(line,stra);      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
         }    } /* End age */
            free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
         for (j=ncov;j>=1;j--){  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
         }    fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         num[i]=atol(stra);    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
            fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
     /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
         i=i+1;  */
       }  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
     }    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);  
        scanf("%d",i);*/    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){    free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;    free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;    free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     }    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
     fflush(ficgp);
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)    fflush(fichtm); 
     if (covar[1][i]==0) printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/  }  /* end varevsij */
   
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/  /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);  {
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);    /* Variance of prevalence limit */
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
   Tage=ivector(1,15);          double **newm;
        double **dnewm,**doldm;
   if (strlen(model) >1){    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;    int k, cptcode;
     j=nbocc(model,'+');    double *xp;
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');    double *gp, *gm;
     cptcovn=j+1;    double **gradg, **trgradg;
     cptcovprod=j1;    double age,agelim;
        int theta;
         
     strcpy(modelsav,model);    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of stable prevalences \n");
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       goto end;        fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
     }    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
      
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){    xp=vector(1,npar);
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/    
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');    agelim = AGESUP;
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           cptcovprod--;      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');      if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
           cptcovage++;      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;      gp=vector(1,nlstate);
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/      gm=vector(1,nlstate);
         }  
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
           cptcovprod--;        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);        }
           cptcovage++;        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         }          gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
         else {      
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
           Tvar[i]=ncov+k1;          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
           Tprod[k1]=i;        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);          gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);  
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)      } /* End theta */
             covar[ncov+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];  
           k1++;      trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
           k2=k2+2;  
         }      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
       }        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
       else {          trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/  
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');        varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       }      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
         scanf("%d",i);*/  
     }      fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
 }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
          fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
   /*printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);      free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
   scanf("%d ",i);*/      free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
     fclose(fic);      free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     /*  if(mle==1){*/    } /* End age */
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/  
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     }    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);  
   }
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  
      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++)  /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)
          anint[m][i]=9999;  {
          s[m][i]=-1;    int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
        }    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
        int k=0,l, cptcode;
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {    int first=1, first1;
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){    double **dnewm,**doldm;
         if(s[m][i] >0){    double *xp;
           if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {    double *gp, *gm;
             if(agedc[i]>0)    double **gradg, **trgradg;
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)    double **mu;
               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];    double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
             else {    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
               if (andc[i]!=9999){    int theta;
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
               agev[m][i]=-1;    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
               }    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
             }  
           }    double ***varpij;
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */  
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);    strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
               agev[m][i]=1;    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
               agemin=agev[m][i];      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/    }
             }    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
               agemax=agev[m][i];    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
             }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/    }
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
           }    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
           else { /* =9 */    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
             agev[m][i]=1;      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
             s[m][i]=-1;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
           }    }
         }    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
         else /*= 0 Unknown */    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
           agev[m][i]=1;    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
       }    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
        printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     }    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {    
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){    fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");      fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
           goto end;    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
         }    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
       }    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     }  
   
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);        fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);        fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);        fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);      }  
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);   /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
     free_vector(andc,1,n);   */
    xp=vector(1,npar);
        dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     wav=ivector(1,imx);    doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
        first=1;
     /* Concatenates waves */    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
   
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
       ncodemax[1]=1;    file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
        and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);   They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
    h=0;    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);  It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
    would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){  standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){   Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){   and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){  To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
            h++;  
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;    cov[1]=1;
          }    tj=cptcoveff;
        }    if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
      }    j1=0;
    }    for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
       for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ 
         j1++;
    /*for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){        if  (cptcovn>0) {
      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){          fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
      }          fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
      printf("\n");          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
    }          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
    scanf("%d",i);*/          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
              
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age          fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
              
              
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
                for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */        }
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */        
         for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
     if(mle==1){          cov[2]=age;
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);          for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
     }            cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
              }
     /*--------- results files --------------*/          for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);          for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
              cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
           
    jk=1;          gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");          trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
    printf("# Parameters\n");          gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){          gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){      
        if (k != i)          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
          {            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);              xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);            
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){            pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);            
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);            k=0;
              jk++;            for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
            }              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
            printf("\n");                k=k+1;
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");                gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
          }              }
      }            }
    }            
  if(mle==1){            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */              xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */      
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);            pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
  }            k=0;
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales\n");            for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
     printf("# Scales\n");              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){                k=k+1;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){                gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
         if (j!=i) {              }
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);            }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);       
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){            for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);              gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);          }
             jk++;  
           }          for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
           printf("\n");            for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");              trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
         }          
       }          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
      }          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
              free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     k=1;          free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");          free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     printf("# Covariance\n");          free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){  
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;          
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);          k=0;
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/          for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
       printf("%3d",i);              k=k+1;
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){              mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);            }
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);          }
       }          for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");            for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
       printf("\n");              varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
       k++;  
     }          /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
                for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){            printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
       ungetc(c,ficpar);            fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);            }*/
       puts(line);  
       fputs(line,ficparo);          fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
     }          fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
    
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage);          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
                fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
     if (fage <= 2) {          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
       bage = agemin;            fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
       fage = agemaxpar;            fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
     }          }
              i=0;
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");          for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemaxpar,bage,fage);            for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemaxpar,bage,fage);              i=i++;
                fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){              fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);              for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
     puts(line);                fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
     fputs(line,ficparo);              }
   }            }
   ungetc(c,ficpar);          }/* end of loop for state */
          } /* end of loop for age */
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2);  
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);        /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
  fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);        /*
                fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
     puts(line);          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
     fputs(line,ficparo);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
   }          fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        */
    
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
    dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;        first1=1;
    dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;        for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
           for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);            if(l2==k2) continue;
   fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);              j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
   fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);              for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
                for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){                if(l1==k1) continue;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);                i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                if(i<=j) continue;
     puts(line);                for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
     fputs(line,ficparo);                  if ((int)age %5==0){
   }                    v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                    v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
   fscanf(ficpar,"starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilav);                    mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
 fprintf(ficparo,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);                    mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
 fprintf(ficres,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);                    c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                     /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){                    lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);                    /* Eigen vectors */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                    v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
     puts(line);                    /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
     fputs(line,ficparo);                    v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
   }                    v12=-v21;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                    v22=v11;
                     tnalp=v21/v11;
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);                    if(first1==1){
   fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);                      first1=0;
   fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);                      printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);                    fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
 /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/                    /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
  printinggnuplot(fileres,optionfilefiname,optionfile,optionfilegnuplot, agemin,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);                    /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                      if(first==1){
 /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/                      first=0;
  chdir(path);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
  free_ivector(wav,1,imx);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
  free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
  free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);     :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
  free_ivector(num,1,n);  %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
  free_vector(agedc,1,n);                              subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
  /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/                              subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
  fclose(ficparo);                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
  fclose(ficres);                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
   printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,optionfile,optionfilehtm,rfileres);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                                mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/                    }else{
                        first=0;
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");                      fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
   }                              mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);                              mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");                    }/* if first */
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");                  } /* age mod 5 */
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);                } /* end loop age */
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");                fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                  first=1;
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);              } /*l12 */
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */            } /* k12 */
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          } /*l1 */
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        }/* k1 */
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */      } /* loop covariates */
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */    }
   k=0;    free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
   agebase=agemin;    free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
   agelim=agemaxpar;    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
   ftolpl=1.e-10;    fclose(ficresprob);
   i1=cptcoveff;    fclose(ficresprobcov);
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}    fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    fflush(fichtmcov);
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){  }
         k=k+1;  
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/  
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");  /******************* Printing html file ***********/
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");                    int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                            int popforecast, int estepm ,\
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){                    double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);                    double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );    int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files (first order: no variance)</h4>\n \
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");   - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
         }             jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
       }     fprintf(fichtm,"\
     }   - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
   fclose(ficrespl);             stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/   - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
               subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);     fprintf(fichtm,"\
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {   - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): \
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
   }             estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);  
    fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;  
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/   m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   agelim=AGESUP;  
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */   jj1=0;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */   for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
       for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
   k=0;       jj1++;
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){       if (cptcovn > 0) {
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){         fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
       k=k+1;         for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");           fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);       }
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");       /* Pij */
               fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d1.png<br> \
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */  <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */       /* Quasi-incidences */
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);   before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d2.png<br> \
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;  <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);           /* Stable prevalence in each health state */
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");         for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)           fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br> \
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)  <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);         }
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br> \
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );  <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)       }
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)     } /* end i1 */
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);   }/* End k1 */
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");   fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
           }  
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");   fprintf(fichtm,"\
         }  \n<br><li><h4> Result files (second order: variances)</h4>\n\
     }   - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   }  
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
   /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/           subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   fclose(ficrespij);   - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   if((stepm == 1) && (model==".")){   - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
     prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);           subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
 if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);   fprintf(fichtm,"\
     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);   - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);           estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
     free_vector(weight,1,n);}   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   else{   - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
     erreur=108;           subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
     printf("Error %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d\n", erreur, stepm);   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   }   - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
             subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/  /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   strcpy(filerest,"t");  /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   strcat(filerest,fileres);  /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {  /*  else  */
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;  /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
   }   fflush(fichtm);
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);   fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
   strcpy(filerese,"e");   if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   strcat(filerese,fileres);  
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {   jj1=0;
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);   for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
   }     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);       jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");         fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);         for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {           fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
   }       }
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   k=0;  prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){  <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){       }
       k=k+1;       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");  health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);     } /* end i1 */
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");   }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");   fflush(fichtm);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  }
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);  
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");  
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);    int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");    int ng;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);  /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;  /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);    /*   } */
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);  
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    /*#ifdef windows */
        varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);    fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
          /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");    strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);    strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");   /* 1eme*/
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
       hf=1;     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);  set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
         if (popbased==1) {  set ter png small\n\
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  set size 0.65,0.65\n\
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
         }  
               for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
         fprintf(ficrest," %.0f",age);         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {       }
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*hf*eij[i][j][(int)age];       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stable prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
           }       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
         }         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)       } 
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
         fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],hf*sqrt(vepp));         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
           fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[j],hf*sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));       }  
         }       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");     }
       }    }
     }    /*2 eme*/
   }    
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
   fclose(ficreseij);      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
   fclose(ficresvij);      fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
   fclose(ficrest);      
   fclose(ficpar);      for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);        k=2*i;
          fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/          for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
   strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);        }   
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {        if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);        else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
     exit(0);        fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
   }        for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);          if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
   k=0;        }   
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){        fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
       k=k+1;        for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");          if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);        }   
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");        if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
              else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);      }
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    }
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);    
     }    /*3eme*/
  }    
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
   fclose(ficresvpl);      for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);        fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
    set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);        /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
            for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
            fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          
          */
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);        for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);          fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);          
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);        } 
       }
   if(erreur >0)    }
     printf("End of Imach with error %d\n",erreur);    
   else   printf("End of Imach\n");    /* CV preval stable (period) */
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
        for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/        k=3;
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
   /*------ End -----------*/        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
   unset log y\n\
  end:  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
 #ifdef windows        
   /* chdir(pathcd);*/        for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
 #endif          fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
  /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/        fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
  /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/        
  /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/        l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
  /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/        fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
  strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);        for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
  strcat(plotcmd," ");          l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
  strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);          fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
  system(plotcmd);        }
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
 #ifdef windows      } 
   while (z[0] != 'q') {    }  
     chdir(path);    
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");    /* proba elementaires */
     scanf("%s",z);    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
     else if (z[0] == 'e') {        if (k != i) {
       chdir(path);          for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
       system(optionfilehtm);            fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
     }            jk++; 
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);            fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
   }          }
 #endif        }
 }      }
      }
   
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                else
                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                ij=1;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                    ij++;
                  }
                  else
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                    if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                      ij++;
                    }
                    else
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     int *popage;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     double agedeb, agefin,hf;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double **xi,tmp,delta;
   
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int *indx;
     char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE]; 
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
     int c,  h , cpt,l;
     int ju,jl, mi;
     int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
     int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double *severity;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
     double kk1, kk2;
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
   
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
   
   
     char z[1]="c", occ;
   
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
     char strstart[80], *strt, strtend[80];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
     long total_usecs;
    
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
     curr_time=start_time;
     tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       scanf("%s",pathtot);
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("pathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
     if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
   
     ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
    
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       exit(0);
     }
     /* Read guess parameters */
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       j=0;
       for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
         if(jj==i) continue;
         j++;
         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
         if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
           exit(1);
         }
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           else
             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }  
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
   
     p=param[1][1];
     
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     /* delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
         if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
           exit(1);
         }
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
           printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       }
     }
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
     /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
       fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
       if(mle==1)
         printf("%s",str);
       fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
       fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
       for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
         fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
         if(mle==1){
           printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
       }
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
       numlinepar++;
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
     }
     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
       for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      
     if(mle==1)
       printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/
     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
       
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
     }
   
     n= lastobs;
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
   
     i=1;
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {
           
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb); 
           strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         }
           
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         } 
         lstra=strlen(stra);
         if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
           stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
           num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
         }
         else
           num[i]=atol(stra);
           
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
           printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
   
         i=i+1;
       }
     }
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
        scanf("%d",i);*/
     imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
   
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
       if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
       if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
       }*/
      /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
        printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
     
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)
    
      /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
        else weight[i]=1;*/
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/
     Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
     Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
     Tage=ivector(1,15);      
      
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovn=j+1; 
       cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
       
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
         printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         goto end;
       }
       
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
   
       for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
         cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */ 
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
           cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
             cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=i;
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           }
           else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;
           }
           else {  /* Age is not in the model */
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
             Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
             cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=i;
             Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
             Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
             for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
               covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
             k1++;
             k2=k2+2;
           }
         }
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
         Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);
     fclose(fic);*/
   
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
     }
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0)
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a
                                    month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
               agemin=agev[m][i];
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
               agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           nberr++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           goto end;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax); 
   
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
   
      
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
   
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     Tcode=ivector(1,100);
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
         
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of 
                                    the estimations*/
     h=0;
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
       for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
             h++;
             if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
             /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
       
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
     printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
     printf("\n");
     globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
     printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
     printf("\n");
     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
     }
       
     /*--------- results files --------------*/
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
     
   
     fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             printf("%f ",p[jk]);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);
             fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
             jk++; 
           }
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
     if(mle!=0){
       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
       ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
     }
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if (j!=i) {
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
             jk++;
           }
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
      
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
     if(mle>=1)
       printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
   
   
   /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
      even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
   */
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             if(mle>=1)
               printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
     fflush(ficlog);
     fflush(ficres);
   
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     estepm=0;
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
     if (fage <= 2) {
       bage = ageminpar;
       fage = agemaxpar;
     }
      
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
      
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
     fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
     fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
      
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
    
   
     dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
     dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
     fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
     fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
     
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
   
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     /*  fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);
     fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);
     fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);*/
   
     /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
     /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
   
     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,path); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
     printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
   
     printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
    
     /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
     /*  chdir(path); */
    
     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
     free_lvector(num,1,n);
     free_vector(agedc,1,n);
     /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
     fclose(ficparo);
     fclose(ficres);
   
   
     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (stable prevalence) --------------*/
     
     strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
     strcat(filerespl,fileres);
     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Stable prevalence \n");
     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
     prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
     agebase=ageminpar;
     agelim=agemaxpar;
     ftolpl=1.e-10;
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
         printf("\n#******");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
         printf("******\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
           
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
     fclose(ficrespl);
   
     /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
     
     strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
     if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
     /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
   
     fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
           
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
   
           /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
   
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
   
     varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);
   
     fclose(ficrespij);
   
     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
         for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
           probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
     /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
     if(prevfcast==1){
       /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
   /*      }  */
   /*      else{ */
   /*        erreur=108; */
   /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
   /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
   /*      } */
     }
     
   
     /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
     strcpy(filerest,"t");
     strcat(filerest,fileres);
     if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
     strcpy(filerese,"e");
     strcat(filerese,fileres);
     if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
   
     strcpy(fileresv,"v");
     strcat(fileresv,fileres);
     if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
     /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
   ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     */
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1; 
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);  
    
         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav);
         if(popbased==1){
           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav);
         }
   
    
         fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
         for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
         epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
         for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
           if (popbased==1) {
             if(mobilav ==0){
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
             }else{ /* mobilav */ 
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
             }
           }
           
           fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
           for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
             for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
               epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
               /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
             }
             epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
           }
   
           for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
               vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
           }
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
         }
         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
       }
     }
     free_vector(weight,1,n);
     free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
     free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
     free_ivector(cod,1,n);
     free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficreseij);
     fclose(ficresvij);
     fclose(ficrest);
     fclose(ficpar);
     
     /*------- Variance of stable prevalence------*/   
   
     strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
     strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with variance of stable prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
       exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of stable prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
       }
     }
   
     fclose(ficresvpl);
   
     /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
     free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     
     free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
     free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
     /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
     free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
     free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
     free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
   
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
     tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocaltime at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
     strcat(plotcmd," ");
     strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: %s",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf(" Problem with gnuplot\n");
     }
     printf(" Wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }
   
   
   
Removed from v.1.30  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.97

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