1: /* $Id: imach.c,v 1.27 2002/02/28 17:49:07 lievre Exp $
2: Interpolated Markov Chain
3:
4: Short summary of the programme:
5:
6: This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
7: cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
8: first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
9: interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
10: case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
11: second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
12: (if any) in individual health status. Health expectancies are
13: computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
14: model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
15: Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model. The
16: simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
17: probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave
18: conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
19: the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
20: 'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
21: complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
22: where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
23: you to do it. More covariates you add, slower the
24: convergence.
25:
26: The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
27: multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
28: identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
29: intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
30: account using an interpolation or extrapolation.
31:
32: hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
33: conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
34: split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
35: states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,
36: semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic. The hPx
37: matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
38: and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
39: hPijx.
40:
41: Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
42: of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.
43:
44: Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
45: Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
46: This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
47: from the European Union.
48: It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
49: software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
50: can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
51: **********************************************************************/
52:
53: #include <math.h>
54: #include <stdio.h>
55: #include <stdlib.h>
56: #include <unistd.h>
57:
58: #define MAXLINE 256
59: #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"
60: #define FILENAMELENGTH 80
61: /*#define DEBUG*/
62: #define windows
63: #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH -1 /* empty path */
64: #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD -2 /* cannot get cwd */
65:
66: #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
67: #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
68:
69: #define NINTERVMAX 8
70: #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
71: #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
72: #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
73: #define MAXN 20000
74: #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
75: #define AGESUP 130
76: #define AGEBASE 40
77:
78:
79: int erreur; /* Error number */
80: int nvar;
81: int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
82: int npar=NPARMAX;
83: int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
84: int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
85: int ncovmodel, ncov; /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
86: int popbased=0;
87:
88: int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
89: int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
90: int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
91: int mle, weightopt;
92: int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
93: int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
94: double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
95: double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
96: double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
97: FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
98: FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop;
99: FILE *ficreseij;
100: char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
101: FILE *ficresvij;
102: char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
103: FILE *ficresvpl;
104: char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
105:
106: #define NR_END 1
107: #define FREE_ARG char*
108: #define FTOL 1.0e-10
109:
110: #define NRANSI
111: #define ITMAX 200
112:
113: #define TOL 2.0e-4
114:
115: #define CGOLD 0.3819660
116: #define ZEPS 1.0e-10
117: #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);
118:
119: #define GOLD 1.618034
120: #define GLIMIT 100.0
121: #define TINY 1.0e-20
122:
123: static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
124: #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
125: #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
126:
127: #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
128: #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
129:
130: static double sqrarg;
131: #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
132: #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}
133:
134: int imx;
135: int stepm;
136: /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
137:
138: int m,nb;
139: int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;
140: double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
141: double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;
142: double dateintmean=0;
143:
144: double *weight;
145: int **s; /* Status */
146: double *agedc, **covar, idx;
147: int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
148:
149: double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
150: double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
151:
152: /**************** split *************************/
153: static int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
154: {
155: char *s; /* pointer */
156: int l1, l2; /* length counters */
157:
158: l1 = strlen( path ); /* length of path */
159: if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
160: #ifdef windows
161: s = strrchr( path, '\\' ); /* find last / */
162: #else
163: s = strrchr( path, '/' ); /* find last / */
164: #endif
165: if ( s == NULL ) { /* no directory, so use current */
166: #if defined(__bsd__) /* get current working directory */
167: extern char *getwd( );
168:
169: if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {
170: #else
171: extern char *getcwd( );
172:
173: if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
174: #endif
175: return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
176: }
177: strcpy( name, path ); /* we've got it */
178: } else { /* strip direcotry from path */
179: s++; /* after this, the filename */
180: l2 = strlen( s ); /* length of filename */
181: if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
182: strcpy( name, s ); /* save file name */
183: strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 ); /* now the directory */
184: dirc[l1-l2] = 0; /* add zero */
185: }
186: l1 = strlen( dirc ); /* length of directory */
187: #ifdef windows
188: if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
189: #else
190: if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
191: #endif
192: s = strrchr( name, '.' ); /* find last / */
193: s++;
194: strcpy(ext,s); /* save extension */
195: l1= strlen( name);
196: l2= strlen( s)+1;
197: strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
198: finame[l1-l2]= 0;
199: return( 0 ); /* we're done */
200: }
201:
202:
203: /******************************************/
204:
205: void replace(char *s, char*t)
206: {
207: int i;
208: int lg=20;
209: i=0;
210: lg=strlen(t);
211: for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
212: (s[i] = t[i]);
213: if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
214: }
215: }
216:
217: int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
218: {
219: int i,j=0;
220: int lg=20;
221: i=0;
222: lg=strlen(s);
223: for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
224: if (s[i] == occ ) j++;
225: }
226: return j;
227: }
228:
229: void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
230: {
231: int i,lg,j,p=0;
232: i=0;
233: for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
234: if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
235: }
236:
237: lg=strlen(t);
238: for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
239: (u[j] = t[j]);
240: }
241: u[p]='\0';
242:
243: for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
244: if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
245: }
246: }
247:
248: /********************** nrerror ********************/
249:
250: void nrerror(char error_text[])
251: {
252: fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
253: fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
254: exit(1);
255: }
256: /*********************** vector *******************/
257: double *vector(int nl, int nh)
258: {
259: double *v;
260: v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
261: if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
262: return v-nl+NR_END;
263: }
264:
265: /************************ free vector ******************/
266: void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
267: {
268: free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
269: }
270:
271: /************************ivector *******************************/
272: int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
273: {
274: int *v;
275: v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
276: if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
277: return v-nl+NR_END;
278: }
279:
280: /******************free ivector **************************/
281: void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
282: {
283: free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
284: }
285:
286: /******************* imatrix *******************************/
287: int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
288: /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */
289: {
290: long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;
291: int **m;
292:
293: /* allocate pointers to rows */
294: m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));
295: if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
296: m += NR_END;
297: m -= nrl;
298:
299:
300: /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */
301: m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
302: if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
303: m[nrl] += NR_END;
304: m[nrl] -= ncl;
305:
306: for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
307:
308: /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */
309: return m;
310: }
311:
312: /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
313: void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
314: int **m;
315: long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;
316: /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */
317: {
318: free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
319: free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));
320: }
321:
322: /******************* matrix *******************************/
323: double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
324: {
325: long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
326: double **m;
327:
328: m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
329: if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
330: m += NR_END;
331: m -= nrl;
332:
333: m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
334: if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
335: m[nrl] += NR_END;
336: m[nrl] -= ncl;
337:
338: for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
339: return m;
340: }
341:
342: /*************************free matrix ************************/
343: void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
344: {
345: free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
346: free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
347: }
348:
349: /******************* ma3x *******************************/
350: double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
351: {
352: long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
353: double ***m;
354:
355: m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
356: if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
357: m += NR_END;
358: m -= nrl;
359:
360: m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
361: if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
362: m[nrl] += NR_END;
363: m[nrl] -= ncl;
364:
365: for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
366:
367: m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
368: if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
369: m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
370: m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
371: for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
372: m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
373:
374: for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
375: m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
376: for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
377: m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
378: }
379: return m;
380: }
381:
382: /*************************free ma3x ************************/
383: void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
384: {
385: free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
386: free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
387: free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
388: }
389:
390: /***************** f1dim *************************/
391: extern int ncom;
392: extern double *pcom,*xicom;
393: extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);
394:
395: double f1dim(double x)
396: {
397: int j;
398: double f;
399: double *xt;
400:
401: xt=vector(1,ncom);
402: for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];
403: f=(*nrfunc)(xt);
404: free_vector(xt,1,ncom);
405: return f;
406: }
407:
408: /*****************brent *************************/
409: double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin)
410: {
411: int iter;
412: double a,b,d,etemp;
413: double fu,fv,fw,fx;
414: double ftemp;
415: double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;
416: double e=0.0;
417:
418: a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);
419: b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);
420: x=w=v=bx;
421: fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);
422: for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {
423: xm=0.5*(a+b);
424: tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);
425: /* if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
426: printf(".");fflush(stdout);
427: #ifdef DEBUG
428: printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
429: /* if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
430: #endif
431: if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){
432: *xmin=x;
433: return fx;
434: }
435: ftemp=fu;
436: if (fabs(e) > tol1) {
437: r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);
438: q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);
439: p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;
440: q=2.0*(q-r);
441: if (q > 0.0) p = -p;
442: q=fabs(q);
443: etemp=e;
444: e=d;
445: if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))
446: d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
447: else {
448: d=p/q;
449: u=x+d;
450: if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)
451: d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);
452: }
453: } else {
454: d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
455: }
456: u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));
457: fu=(*f)(u);
458: if (fu <= fx) {
459: if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;
460: SHFT(v,w,x,u)
461: SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)
462: } else {
463: if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;
464: if (fu <= fw || w == x) {
465: v=w;
466: w=u;
467: fv=fw;
468: fw=fu;
469: } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {
470: v=u;
471: fv=fu;
472: }
473: }
474: }
475: nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");
476: *xmin=x;
477: return fx;
478: }
479:
480: /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
481:
482: void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,
483: double (*func)(double))
484: {
485: double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
486: double fu;
487:
488: *fa=(*func)(*ax);
489: *fb=(*func)(*bx);
490: if (*fb > *fa) {
491: SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)
492: SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)
493: }
494: *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);
495: *fc=(*func)(*cx);
496: while (*fb > *fc) {
497: r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);
498: q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);
499: u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/
500: (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));
501: ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);
502: if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {
503: fu=(*func)(u);
504: } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {
505: fu=(*func)(u);
506: if (fu < *fc) {
507: SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))
508: SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))
509: }
510: } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {
511: u=ulim;
512: fu=(*func)(u);
513: } else {
514: u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);
515: fu=(*func)(u);
516: }
517: SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)
518: SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)
519: }
520: }
521:
522: /*************** linmin ************************/
523:
524: int ncom;
525: double *pcom,*xicom;
526: double (*nrfunc)(double []);
527:
528: void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))
529: {
530: double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,
531: double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);
532: double f1dim(double x);
533: void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,
534: double *fc, double (*func)(double));
535: int j;
536: double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
537: double fx,fb,fa;
538:
539: ncom=n;
540: pcom=vector(1,n);
541: xicom=vector(1,n);
542: nrfunc=func;
543: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
544: pcom[j]=p[j];
545: xicom[j]=xi[j];
546: }
547: ax=0.0;
548: xx=1.0;
549: mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);
550: *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);
551: #ifdef DEBUG
552: printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
553: #endif
554: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
555: xi[j] *= xmin;
556: p[j] += xi[j];
557: }
558: free_vector(xicom,1,n);
559: free_vector(pcom,1,n);
560: }
561:
562: /*************** powell ************************/
563: void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,
564: double (*func)(double []))
565: {
566: void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,
567: double (*func)(double []));
568: int i,ibig,j;
569: double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
570: double fp,fptt;
571: double *xits;
572: pt=vector(1,n);
573: ptt=vector(1,n);
574: xit=vector(1,n);
575: xits=vector(1,n);
576: *fret=(*func)(p);
577: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];
578: for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {
579: fp=(*fret);
580: ibig=0;
581: del=0.0;
582: printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);
583: for (i=1;i<=n;i++)
584: printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
585: printf("\n");
586: for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
587: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];
588: fptt=(*fret);
589: #ifdef DEBUG
590: printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
591: #endif
592: printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
593: linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
594: if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {
595: del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));
596: ibig=i;
597: }
598: #ifdef DEBUG
599: printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
600: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
601: xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
602: printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
603: }
604: for(j=1;j<=n;j++)
605: printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
606: printf("\n");
607: #endif
608: }
609: if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
610: #ifdef DEBUG
611: int k[2],l;
612: k[0]=1;
613: k[1]=-1;
614: printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
615: for (j=1;j<=n;j++)
616: printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
617: printf("\n");
618: for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
619: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
620: ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
621: printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
622: }
623: printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
624: }
625: #endif
626:
627:
628: free_vector(xit,1,n);
629: free_vector(xits,1,n);
630: free_vector(ptt,1,n);
631: free_vector(pt,1,n);
632: return;
633: }
634: if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");
635: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
636: ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];
637: xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];
638: pt[j]=p[j];
639: }
640: fptt=(*func)(ptt);
641: if (fptt < fp) {
642: t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);
643: if (t < 0.0) {
644: linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
645: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
646: xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];
647: xi[j][n]=xit[j];
648: }
649: #ifdef DEBUG
650: printf("Direction changed last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
651: for(j=1;j<=n;j++)
652: printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
653: printf("\n");
654: #endif
655: }
656: }
657: }
658: }
659:
660: /**** Prevalence limit ****************/
661:
662: double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
663: {
664: /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
665: matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
666:
667: int i, ii,j,k;
668: double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
669: double **matprod2();
670: double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
671: double **newm;
672: double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
673:
674: for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
675: for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
676: oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
677: }
678:
679: cov[1]=1.;
680:
681: /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
682: for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
683: newm=savm;
684: /* Covariates have to be included here again */
685: cov[2]=agefin;
686:
687: for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
688: cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
689: /*printf("ij=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf\n",ij, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k]);*/
690: }
691: for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
692: cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
693: for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
694: cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
695:
696: /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
697: /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
698:
699: out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
700:
701: savm=oldm;
702: oldm=newm;
703: maxmax=0.;
704: for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
705: min=1.;
706: max=0.;
707: for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
708: sumnew=0;
709: for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
710: prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
711: max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
712: min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
713: }
714: maxmin=max-min;
715: maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
716: }
717: if(maxmax < ftolpl){
718: return prlim;
719: }
720: }
721: }
722:
723: /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
724:
725: double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
726: {
727: double s1, s2;
728: /*double t34;*/
729: int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
730:
731: for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
732: for(j=1; j<i;j++){
733: for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
734: /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
735: s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
736: /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
737: }
738: ps[i][j]=s2;
739: /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
740: }
741: for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
742: for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
743: s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
744: /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/
745: }
746: ps[i][j]=s2;
747: }
748: }
749: /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
750:
751: for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
752: s1=0;
753: for(j=1; j<i; j++)
754: s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
755: for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
756: s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
757: ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
758: for(j=1; j<i; j++)
759: ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
760: for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
761: ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
762: /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
763: } /* end i */
764:
765: for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
766: for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
767: ps[ii][jj]=0;
768: ps[ii][ii]=1;
769: }
770: }
771:
772:
773: /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
774: for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
775: printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);
776: }
777: printf("\n ");
778: }
779: printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
780: /*
781: for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
782: goto end;*/
783: return ps;
784: }
785:
786: /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
787:
788: double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
789: {
790: /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
791: b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
792: /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized
793: before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
794: a pointer to pointers identical to out */
795: long i, j, k;
796: for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
797: for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
798: for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
799: out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
800:
801: return out;
802: }
803:
804:
805: /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
806:
807: double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
808: {
809: /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month
810: duration (i.e. until
811: age (in years) age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
812: Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step
813: (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).
814: Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be
815: included manually here.
816:
817: */
818:
819: int i, j, d, h, k;
820: double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
821: double **newm;
822:
823: /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
824: for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
825: for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
826: oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
827: po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
828: }
829: /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
830: for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
831: for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
832: newm=savm;
833: /* Covariates have to be included here again */
834: cov[1]=1.;
835: cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
836: for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
837: for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
838: cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
839: for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
840: cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
841:
842:
843: /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
844: /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
845: out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
846: pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
847: savm=oldm;
848: oldm=newm;
849: }
850: for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
851: for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
852: po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
853: /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
854: */
855: }
856: } /* end h */
857: return po;
858: }
859:
860:
861: /*************** log-likelihood *************/
862: double func( double *x)
863: {
864: int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
865: double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
866: double **out;
867: double sw; /* Sum of weights */
868: double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
869: long ipmx;
870: /*extern weight */
871: /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
872: /* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
873: /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)
874: printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
875: */
876: cov[1]=1.;
877:
878: for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
879: for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
880: for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
881: for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
882: for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
883: for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
884: for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
885: newm=savm;
886: cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
887: for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
888: cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
889: }
890:
891: out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
892: 1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
893: savm=oldm;
894: oldm=newm;
895:
896:
897: } /* end mult */
898:
899: lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);
900: /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/
901: ipmx +=1;
902: sw += weight[i];
903: ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
904: } /* end of wave */
905: } /* end of individual */
906:
907: for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
908: /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
909: l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
910: return -l;
911: }
912:
913:
914: /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
915:
916: void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
917: {
918: int i,j, iter;
919: double **xi,*delti;
920: double fret;
921: xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
922: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
923: for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
924: xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
925: printf("Powell\n");
926: powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
927:
928: printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
929: fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
930:
931: }
932:
933: /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
934: void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
935: {
936: double **a,**y,*x,pd;
937: double **hess;
938: int i, j,jk;
939: int *indx;
940:
941: double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);
942: double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);
943: void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
944: void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
945:
946: hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
947:
948: printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
949: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
950: printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
951: hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);
952: /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/
953: /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/
954: }
955:
956: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
957: for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
958: if (j>i) {
959: printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
960: hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);
961: hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
962: /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
963: }
964: }
965: }
966: printf("\n");
967:
968: printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
969:
970: a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
971: y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
972: x=vector(1,npar);
973: indx=ivector(1,npar);
974: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
975: for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
976: ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
977:
978: for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
979: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
980: x[j]=1;
981: lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
982: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
983: matcov[i][j]=x[i];
984: }
985: }
986:
987: printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
988: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
989: for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
990: printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
991: }
992: printf("\n");
993: }
994:
995: /* Recompute Inverse */
996: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
997: for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
998: ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
999:
1000: /* printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
1001:
1002: for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
1003: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
1004: x[j]=1;
1005: lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
1006: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
1007: y[i][j]=x[i];
1008: printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
1009: }
1010: printf("\n");
1011: }
1012: */
1013:
1014: free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
1015: free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
1016: free_vector(x,1,npar);
1017: free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
1018: free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
1019:
1020:
1021: }
1022:
1023: /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
1024: double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])
1025: {
1026: int i;
1027: int l=1, lmax=20;
1028: double k1,k2;
1029: double p2[NPARMAX+1];
1030: double res;
1031: double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
1032: double fx;
1033: int k=0,kmax=10;
1034: double l1;
1035:
1036: fx=func(x);
1037: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
1038: for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
1039: l1=pow(10,l);
1040: delts=delt;
1041: for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
1042: delt = delta*(l1*k);
1043: p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
1044: k1=func(p2)-fx;
1045: p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
1046: k2=func(p2)-fx;
1047: /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
1048: res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
1049:
1050: #ifdef DEBUG
1051: printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
1052: #endif
1053: /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
1054: if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
1055: k=kmax;
1056: }
1057: else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
1058: k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
1059: }
1060: else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){
1061: delts=delt;
1062: }
1063: }
1064: }
1065: delti[theta]=delts;
1066: return res;
1067:
1068: }
1069:
1070: double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)
1071: {
1072: int i;
1073: int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
1074: double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
1075: double p2[NPARMAX+1];
1076: int k;
1077:
1078: fx=func(x);
1079: for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
1080: for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
1081: p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
1082: p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
1083: k1=func(p2)-fx;
1084:
1085: p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
1086: p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
1087: k2=func(p2)-fx;
1088:
1089: p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
1090: p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
1091: k3=func(p2)-fx;
1092:
1093: p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
1094: p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
1095: k4=func(p2)-fx;
1096: res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
1097: #ifdef DEBUG
1098: printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
1099: #endif
1100: }
1101: return res;
1102: }
1103:
1104: /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
1105: void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)
1106: {
1107: int i,imax,j,k;
1108: double big,dum,sum,temp;
1109: double *vv;
1110:
1111: vv=vector(1,n);
1112: *d=1.0;
1113: for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
1114: big=0.0;
1115: for (j=1;j<=n;j++)
1116: if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;
1117: if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");
1118: vv[i]=1.0/big;
1119: }
1120: for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
1121: for (i=1;i<j;i++) {
1122: sum=a[i][j];
1123: for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
1124: a[i][j]=sum;
1125: }
1126: big=0.0;
1127: for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {
1128: sum=a[i][j];
1129: for (k=1;k<j;k++)
1130: sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
1131: a[i][j]=sum;
1132: if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {
1133: big=dum;
1134: imax=i;
1135: }
1136: }
1137: if (j != imax) {
1138: for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {
1139: dum=a[imax][k];
1140: a[imax][k]=a[j][k];
1141: a[j][k]=dum;
1142: }
1143: *d = -(*d);
1144: vv[imax]=vv[j];
1145: }
1146: indx[j]=imax;
1147: if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;
1148: if (j != n) {
1149: dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);
1150: for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;
1151: }
1152: }
1153: free_vector(vv,1,n); /* Doesn't work */
1154: ;
1155: }
1156:
1157: void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])
1158: {
1159: int i,ii=0,ip,j;
1160: double sum;
1161:
1162: for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
1163: ip=indx[i];
1164: sum=b[ip];
1165: b[ip]=b[i];
1166: if (ii)
1167: for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
1168: else if (sum) ii=i;
1169: b[i]=sum;
1170: }
1171: for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {
1172: sum=b[i];
1173: for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
1174: b[i]=sum/a[i][i];
1175: }
1176: }
1177:
1178: /************ Frequencies ********************/
1179: void freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)
1180: { /* Some frequencies */
1181:
1182: int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
1183: double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
1184: double *pp;
1185: double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
1186: FILE *ficresp;
1187: char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
1188:
1189: pp=vector(1,nlstate);
1190: probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1191: strcpy(fileresp,"p");
1192: strcat(fileresp,fileres);
1193: if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
1194: printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
1195: exit(0);
1196: }
1197: freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);
1198: j1=0;
1199:
1200: j=cptcoveff;
1201: if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
1202:
1203: for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
1204: for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
1205: j1++;
1206: /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
1207: scanf("%d", i);*/
1208: for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
1209: for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
1210: for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)
1211: freq[i][jk][m]=0;
1212:
1213: dateintsum=0;
1214: k2cpt=0;
1215: for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
1216: bool=1;
1217: if (cptcovn>0) {
1218: for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
1219: if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])
1220: bool=0;
1221: }
1222: if (bool==1) {
1223: for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
1224: k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
1225: if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
1226: if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
1227: if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
1228: freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
1229: freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
1230: if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {
1231: dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
1232: k2cpt++;
1233: }
1234:
1235: }
1236: }
1237: }
1238: }
1239:
1240: fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);
1241:
1242: if (cptcovn>0) {
1243: fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
1244: for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
1245: fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
1246: }
1247: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1248: fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
1249: fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
1250:
1251: for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){
1252: if(i==(int)agemax+3)
1253: printf("Total");
1254: else
1255: printf("Age %d", i);
1256: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1257: for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
1258: pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
1259: }
1260: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1261: for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
1262: pos += freq[jk][m][i];
1263: if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)
1264: printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
1265: else
1266: printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
1267: }
1268:
1269: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1270: for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
1271: pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
1272: }
1273:
1274: for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)
1275: pos += pp[jk];
1276: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1277: if(pos>=1.e-5)
1278: printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
1279: else
1280: printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
1281: if( i <= (int) agemax){
1282: if(pos>=1.e-5){
1283: fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);
1284: probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
1285: /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
1286: }
1287: else
1288: fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);
1289: }
1290: }
1291: for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
1292: for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
1293: if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
1294: if(i <= (int) agemax)
1295: fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
1296: printf("\n");
1297: }
1298: }
1299: }
1300: dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;
1301:
1302: fclose(ficresp);
1303: free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);
1304: free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
1305:
1306: /* End of Freq */
1307: }
1308:
1309: /************ Prevalence ********************/
1310: void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)
1311: { /* Some frequencies */
1312:
1313: int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
1314: double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
1315: double *pp;
1316: double pos, k2;
1317:
1318: pp=vector(1,nlstate);
1319: probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1320:
1321: freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);
1322: j1=0;
1323:
1324: j=cptcoveff;
1325: if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
1326:
1327: for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
1328: for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
1329: j1++;
1330:
1331: for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
1332: for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
1333: for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)
1334: freq[i][jk][m]=0;
1335:
1336: for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
1337: bool=1;
1338: if (cptcovn>0) {
1339: for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
1340: if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])
1341: bool=0;
1342: }
1343: if (bool==1) {
1344: for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
1345: k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
1346: if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
1347: if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
1348: if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
1349: freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];
1350: freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3+1)] += weight[i];
1351: }
1352: }
1353: }
1354: }
1355:
1356: for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){
1357: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1358: for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
1359: pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
1360: }
1361: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1362: for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
1363: pos += freq[jk][m][i];
1364: }
1365:
1366: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1367: for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
1368: pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
1369: }
1370:
1371: for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];
1372:
1373: for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
1374: if( i <= (int) agemax){
1375: if(pos>=1.e-5){
1376: probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
1377: }
1378: }
1379: }
1380:
1381: }
1382: }
1383: }
1384:
1385:
1386: free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);
1387: free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
1388:
1389: } /* End of Freq */
1390:
1391: /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
1392:
1393: void concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
1394: {
1395: /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
1396: Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
1397: mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i]) effective wave of individual i
1398: dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
1399: and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
1400: */
1401:
1402: int i, mi, m;
1403: /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
1404: double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
1405:
1406: int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
1407: double sum=0.;
1408: jmin=1e+5;
1409: jmax=-1;
1410: jmean=0.;
1411: for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
1412: mi=0;
1413: m=firstpass;
1414: while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
1415: if(s[m][i]>=1)
1416: mw[++mi][i]=m;
1417: if(m >=lastpass)
1418: break;
1419: else
1420: m++;
1421: }/* end while */
1422: if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
1423: mi++; /* Death is another wave */
1424: /* if(mi==0) never been interviewed correctly before death */
1425: /* Only death is a correct wave */
1426: mw[mi][i]=m;
1427: }
1428:
1429: wav[i]=mi;
1430: if(mi==0)
1431: printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);
1432: }
1433:
1434: for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
1435: for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
1436: if (stepm <=0)
1437: dh[mi][i]=1;
1438: else{
1439: if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {
1440: if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
1441: j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);
1442: if(j==0) j=1; /* Survives at least one month after exam */
1443: k=k+1;
1444: if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
1445: if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;
1446: sum=sum+j;
1447: /* if (j<10) printf("j=%d num=%d ",j,i); */
1448: }
1449: }
1450: else{
1451: j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
1452: k=k+1;
1453: if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
1454: else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;
1455: /* if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
1456: sum=sum+j;
1457: }
1458: jk= j/stepm;
1459: jl= j -jk*stepm;
1460: ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
1461: if(jl <= -ju)
1462: dh[mi][i]=jk;
1463: else
1464: dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
1465: if(dh[mi][i]==0)
1466: dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
1467: }
1468: }
1469: }
1470: jmean=sum/k;
1471: printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
1472: }
1473: /*********** Tricode ****************************/
1474: void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
1475: {
1476: int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;
1477: int cptcode=0;
1478: cptcoveff=0;
1479:
1480: for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
1481: for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
1482:
1483: for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
1484: for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
1485: ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);
1486: Ndum[ij]++;
1487: /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
1488: if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;
1489: }
1490:
1491: for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
1492: if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;
1493: }
1494: ij=1;
1495:
1496:
1497: for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
1498: for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {
1499: if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
1500: nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
1501: ij++;
1502: }
1503: if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;
1504: }
1505: }
1506: }
1507:
1508: for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
1509:
1510: for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {
1511: ij=Tvar[i];
1512: Ndum[ij]++;
1513: }
1514:
1515: ij=1;
1516: for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {
1517: if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncov)){
1518: Tvaraff[ij]=i;
1519: ij++;
1520: }
1521: }
1522:
1523: cptcoveff=ij-1;
1524: }
1525:
1526: /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
1527:
1528: void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)
1529: {
1530: /* Health expectancies */
1531: int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;
1532: double age, agelim,hf;
1533: double ***p3mat;
1534:
1535: fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
1536: fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
1537: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1538: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
1539: fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
1540: fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
1541:
1542: hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every j years of age (in month) */
1543: hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
1544:
1545: agelim=AGESUP;
1546: for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
1547: /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
1548: nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);
1549: /* Typically if 20 years = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
1550: if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
1551: nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically 40/4=10 */
1552: p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
1553: /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
1554: in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
1555: hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);
1556:
1557:
1558: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1559: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
1560: for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
1561: eij[i][j][(int)age] +=p3mat[i][j][h];
1562: }
1563:
1564: hf=1;
1565: if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;
1566: fprintf(ficreseij,"%.0f",age );
1567: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1568: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
1569: fprintf(ficreseij," %.4f", hf*eij[i][j][(int)age]);
1570: }
1571: fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
1572: free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
1573: }
1574: }
1575:
1576: /************ Variance ******************/
1577: void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
1578: {
1579: /* Variance of health expectancies */
1580: /* double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
1581: double **newm;
1582: double **dnewm,**doldm;
1583: int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;
1584: int k, cptcode;
1585: double *xp;
1586: double **gp, **gm;
1587: double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
1588: double ***p3mat;
1589: double age,agelim;
1590: int theta;
1591:
1592: fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");
1593: fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
1594: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1595: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
1596: fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
1597: fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
1598:
1599: xp=vector(1,npar);
1600: dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
1601: doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
1602:
1603: hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
1604: hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
1605: agelim = AGESUP;
1606: for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
1607: nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
1608: if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
1609: nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
1610: p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
1611: gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
1612: gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
1613: gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
1614:
1615: for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
1616: for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
1617: xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1618: }
1619: hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
1620: prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
1621:
1622: if (popbased==1) {
1623: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1624: prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
1625: }
1626:
1627: for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
1628: for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
1629: for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
1630: gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
1631: }
1632: }
1633:
1634: for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
1635: xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1636: hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
1637: prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
1638:
1639: if (popbased==1) {
1640: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1641: prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
1642: }
1643:
1644: for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
1645: for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
1646: for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
1647: gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
1648: }
1649: }
1650:
1651: for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)
1652: for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
1653: gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
1654: }
1655: } /* End theta */
1656:
1657: trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
1658:
1659: for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)
1660: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
1661: for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
1662: trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
1663:
1664: for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
1665: for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
1666: vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
1667: for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
1668: for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
1669: matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
1670: matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
1671: for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
1672: for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
1673: vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];
1674: }
1675: }
1676: h=1;
1677: if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;
1678: fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
1679: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1680: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
1681: fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
1682: }
1683: fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
1684: free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
1685: free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
1686: free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
1687: free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
1688: free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
1689: } /* End age */
1690:
1691: free_vector(xp,1,npar);
1692: free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
1693: free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
1694:
1695: }
1696:
1697: /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
1698: void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
1699: {
1700: /* Variance of prevalence limit */
1701: /* double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
1702: double **newm;
1703: double **dnewm,**doldm;
1704: int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
1705: int k, cptcode;
1706: double *xp;
1707: double *gp, *gm;
1708: double **gradg, **trgradg;
1709: double age,agelim;
1710: int theta;
1711:
1712: fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");
1713: fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
1714: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1715: fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
1716: fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
1717:
1718: xp=vector(1,npar);
1719: dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
1720: doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
1721:
1722: hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
1723: hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
1724: agelim = AGESUP;
1725: for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
1726: nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
1727: if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
1728: nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
1729: gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
1730: gp=vector(1,nlstate);
1731: gm=vector(1,nlstate);
1732:
1733: for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
1734: for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
1735: xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1736: }
1737: prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
1738: for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
1739: gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
1740:
1741: for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
1742: xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1743: prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
1744: for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
1745: gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
1746:
1747: for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
1748: gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
1749: } /* End theta */
1750:
1751: trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
1752:
1753: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
1754: for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
1755: trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
1756:
1757: for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
1758: varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
1759: matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
1760: matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
1761: for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
1762: varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
1763:
1764: fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
1765: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1766: fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
1767: fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
1768: free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
1769: free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
1770: free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
1771: free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
1772: } /* End age */
1773:
1774: free_vector(xp,1,npar);
1775: free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
1776: free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
1777:
1778: }
1779:
1780: /************ Variance of one-step probabilities ******************/
1781: void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)
1782: {
1783: int i, j;
1784: int k=0, cptcode;
1785: double **dnewm,**doldm;
1786: double *xp;
1787: double *gp, *gm;
1788: double **gradg, **trgradg;
1789: double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
1790: int theta;
1791: char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
1792:
1793: strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");
1794: strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
1795: if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
1796: printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
1797: }
1798: printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
1799:
1800:
1801: xp=vector(1,npar);
1802: dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
1803: doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
1804:
1805: cov[1]=1;
1806: for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
1807: cov[2]=age;
1808: gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);
1809: trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);
1810: gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
1811: gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
1812:
1813: for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
1814: for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
1815: xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1816:
1817: pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
1818:
1819: k=0;
1820: for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){
1821: for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
1822: k=k+1;
1823: gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
1824: }
1825: }
1826:
1827: for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
1828: xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1829:
1830:
1831: pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
1832: k=0;
1833: for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
1834: for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
1835: k=k+1;
1836: gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
1837: }
1838: }
1839:
1840: for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
1841: gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
1842: }
1843:
1844: for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
1845: for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
1846: trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
1847:
1848: matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
1849: matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);
1850:
1851: pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
1852:
1853: k=0;
1854: for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
1855: for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
1856: k=k+1;
1857: gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
1858: }
1859: }
1860:
1861: /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
1862: for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){
1863:
1864:
1865: printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
1866: }*/
1867:
1868: fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
1869:
1870: for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){
1871: if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);
1872: if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);
1873: }
1874:
1875: free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
1876: free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
1877: free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
1878: free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
1879: }
1880: free_vector(xp,1,npar);
1881: fclose(ficresprob);
1882:
1883: }
1884:
1885: /******************* Printing html file ***********/
1886: void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char optionfile[],char optionfilehtm[] ){
1887: int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
1888: FILE *fichtm;
1889: /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
1890:
1891: strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);
1892: strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
1893: if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL) {
1894: printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
1895: }
1896:
1897: fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> <font size=\"6\">Imach, Version 0.7 </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">
1898: Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>
1899:
1900: Total number of observations=%d <br>
1901: Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>
1902: <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">
1903: <li>Outputs files<br><br>\n
1904: - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n
1905: - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>
1906: - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>
1907: - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>
1908: - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>
1909: - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>
1910: - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>
1911: - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>
1912: - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>
1913: - Prevalences and population forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>
1914: <br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);
1915:
1916: fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");
1917:
1918: m=cptcoveff;
1919: if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
1920:
1921: jj1=0;
1922: for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
1923: for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
1924: jj1++;
1925: if (cptcovn > 0) {
1926: fprintf(fichtm,"<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
1927: for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
1928: fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
1929: fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
1930: }
1931: fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>
1932: <img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);
1933: for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
1934: fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>
1935: <img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
1936: }
1937: for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
1938: fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident
1939: interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>
1940: <img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
1941: }
1942: for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
1943: fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>
1944: <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
1945: }
1946: fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and
1947: health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>
1948: <img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);
1949: fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");
1950: }
1951: }
1952: fclose(fichtm);
1953: }
1954:
1955: /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
1956: void printinggnuplot(char fileres[],char optionfilefiname[],char optionfile[],char optionfilegnuplot[], double agemin, double agemax, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
1957:
1958: int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
1959:
1960: strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
1961: strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".plt");
1962: if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
1963: printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
1964: }
1965:
1966: #ifdef windows
1967: fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
1968: #endif
1969: m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
1970:
1971: /* 1eme*/
1972: for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
1973: for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
1974:
1975: #ifdef windows
1976: fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
1977: #endif
1978: #ifdef unix
1979: fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);
1980: #endif
1981:
1982: for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
1983: if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
1984: else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
1985: }
1986: fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
1987: for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
1988: if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
1989: else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
1990: }
1991: fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
1992: for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
1993: if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
1994: else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
1995: }
1996: fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
1997: #ifdef unix
1998: fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");
1999: #endif
2000: fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
2001: }
2002: }
2003: /*2 eme*/
2004:
2005: for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
2006: fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);
2007:
2008: for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
2009: k=2*i;
2010: fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
2011: for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
2012: if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
2013: else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
2014: }
2015: if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
2016: else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
2017: fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
2018: for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
2019: if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
2020: else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
2021: }
2022: fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
2023: fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
2024: for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
2025: if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
2026: else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
2027: }
2028: if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
2029: else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
2030: }
2031: fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);
2032: }
2033:
2034: /*3eme*/
2035:
2036: for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
2037: for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
2038: k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);
2039: fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
2040: for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
2041: fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
2042: }
2043: fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
2044: }
2045: }
2046:
2047: /* CV preval stat */
2048: for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
2049: for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {
2050: k=3;
2051: fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemax,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
2052:
2053: for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
2054: fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
2055: fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
2056:
2057: l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
2058: fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
2059: for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
2060: l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
2061: fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
2062: }
2063: fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);
2064: fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
2065: }
2066: }
2067:
2068: /* proba elementaires */
2069: for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
2070: for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
2071: if (k != i) {
2072: for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
2073:
2074: fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
2075: jk++;
2076: fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
2077: }
2078: }
2079: }
2080: }
2081:
2082: for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
2083: fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemax);
2084: i=1;
2085: for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
2086: k3=i;
2087: for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
2088: if (k != k2){
2089: fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
2090: ij=1;
2091: for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
2092: if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
2093: fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
2094: ij++;
2095: }
2096: else
2097: fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
2098: }
2099: fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
2100:
2101: for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
2102: fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
2103: ij=1;
2104: for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
2105: if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
2106: fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
2107: ij++;
2108: }
2109: else
2110: fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
2111: }
2112: fprintf(ficgp,")");
2113: }
2114: fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
2115: if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
2116: i=i+ncovmodel;
2117: }
2118: }
2119: }
2120: fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk);
2121: }
2122:
2123: fclose(ficgp);
2124: } /* end gnuplot */
2125:
2126:
2127: /*************** Moving average **************/
2128: void movingaverage(double agedeb, double fage,double agemin, double ***mobaverage){
2129:
2130: int i, cpt, cptcod;
2131: for (agedeb=agemin; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++)
2132: for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
2133: for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)
2134: mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;
2135:
2136: for (agedeb=agemin+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){
2137: for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
2138: for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
2139: for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){
2140: mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];
2141: }
2142: mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;
2143: }
2144: }
2145: }
2146:
2147: }
2148:
2149:
2150: /************** Forecasting ******************/
2151: prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double agemin, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){
2152:
2153: int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
2154: int *popage;
2155: double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
2156: double *popeffectif,*popcount;
2157: double ***p3mat;
2158: char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
2159:
2160: agelim=AGESUP;
2161: calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
2162:
2163: prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);
2164:
2165:
2166: strcpy(fileresf,"f");
2167: strcat(fileresf,fileres);
2168: if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
2169: printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
2170: }
2171: printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
2172:
2173: if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
2174:
2175: if (mobilav==1) {
2176: mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2177: movingaverage(agedeb, fage, agemin, mobaverage);
2178: }
2179:
2180: stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
2181: if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
2182:
2183: agelim=AGESUP;
2184:
2185: hstepm=1;
2186: hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
2187: yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);
2188: anprojmean=yp;
2189: yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
2190: mprojmean=yp;
2191: yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
2192: jprojmean=yp;
2193: if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
2194: if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
2195:
2196: fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);
2197:
2198: for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
2199: for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
2200: k=k+1;
2201: fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
2202: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
2203: fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
2204: }
2205: fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
2206: fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");
2207: for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);
2208:
2209:
2210: for (cpt=0; cpt<=(anproj2-anproj1);cpt++) {
2211: fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
2212: fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);
2213:
2214: for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){
2215: nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
2216: nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
2217:
2218: p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
2219: oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
2220: hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
2221:
2222: for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
2223: if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {
2224: fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
2225: }
2226: for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
2227: kk1=0.;kk2=0;
2228: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
2229: if (mobilav==1)
2230: kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
2231: else {
2232: kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
2233: }
2234:
2235: }
2236: if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){
2237: fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);
2238:
2239: }
2240: }
2241: }
2242: free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
2243: }
2244: }
2245: }
2246: }
2247:
2248: if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2249:
2250: fclose(ficresf);
2251: }
2252: /************** Forecasting ******************/
2253: populforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double agemin, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){
2254:
2255: int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
2256: int *popage;
2257: double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
2258: double *popeffectif,*popcount;
2259: double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
2260: char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
2261:
2262: tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2263: tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2264: agelim=AGESUP;
2265: calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
2266:
2267: prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);
2268:
2269:
2270: strcpy(filerespop,"pop");
2271: strcat(filerespop,fileres);
2272: if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
2273: printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
2274: }
2275: printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
2276:
2277: if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
2278:
2279: if (mobilav==1) {
2280: mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2281: movingaverage(agedeb, fage, agemin, mobaverage);
2282: }
2283:
2284: stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
2285: if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
2286:
2287: agelim=AGESUP;
2288:
2289: hstepm=1;
2290: hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
2291:
2292: if (popforecast==1) {
2293: if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
2294: printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
2295: }
2296: popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
2297: popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
2298: popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
2299:
2300: i=1;
2301: while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
2302:
2303: imx=i;
2304: for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
2305: }
2306:
2307: for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
2308: for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
2309: k=k+1;
2310: fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
2311: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
2312: fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
2313: }
2314: fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
2315: fprintf(ficrespop,"# StartingAge FinalAge");
2316: for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
2317: if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
2318:
2319: for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {
2320: fprintf(ficrespop,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);
2321:
2322: for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){
2323: nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
2324: nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
2325:
2326: p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
2327: oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
2328: hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
2329:
2330: for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
2331: if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {
2332: fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
2333: }
2334: for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
2335: kk1=0.;kk2=0;
2336: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
2337: if (mobilav==1)
2338: kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
2339: else {
2340: kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
2341: }
2342: }
2343: if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){
2344: tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
2345: /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
2346: if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
2347: }
2348: }
2349: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
2350: kk1=0.;
2351: for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
2352: kk1= kk1+Tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
2353: }
2354: tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedate+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
2355: }
2356:
2357: if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
2358: }
2359: free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
2360: }
2361: }
2362:
2363: /******/
2364:
2365: for (cpt=1; cpt<=4;cpt++) {
2366: fprintf(ficrespop,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);
2367: for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(agemin-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){
2368: nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
2369: nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
2370:
2371: p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
2372: oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
2373: hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
2374: for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
2375: if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {
2376: fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
2377: }
2378: for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
2379: kk1=0.;kk2=0;
2380: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
2381: kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
2382: }
2383: if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);
2384: }
2385: }
2386: free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
2387: }
2388: }
2389: }
2390: }
2391:
2392: if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2393:
2394: if (popforecast==1) {
2395: free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
2396: free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
2397: free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
2398: }
2399: free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2400: free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
2401: fclose(ficrespop);
2402: }
2403:
2404: /***********************************************/
2405: /**************** Main Program *****************/
2406: /***********************************************/
2407:
2408: int main(int argc, char *argv[])
2409: {
2410:
2411: int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;
2412: double agedeb, agefin,hf;
2413: double agemin=1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
2414:
2415: double fret;
2416: double **xi,tmp,delta;
2417:
2418: double dum; /* Dummy variable */
2419: double ***p3mat;
2420: int *indx;
2421: char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
2422: char title[MAXLINE];
2423: char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
2424: char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
2425:
2426: char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH];
2427:
2428: char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
2429: char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
2430: char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
2431: char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];
2432: int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
2433: int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
2434: int c, h , cpt,l;
2435: int ju,jl, mi;
2436: int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
2437: int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;
2438: int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
2439: int hstepm, nhstepm;
2440: double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2;
2441:
2442: double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
2443: double ftolpl=FTOL;
2444: double **prlim;
2445: double *severity;
2446: double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
2447: double *p;
2448: double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
2449: double ***delti3; /* Scale */
2450: double *delti; /* Scale */
2451: double ***eij, ***vareij;
2452: double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
2453: double *epj, vepp;
2454: double kk1, kk2;
2455: double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;
2456:
2457:
2458: char version[80]="Imach version 0.7, February 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";
2459: char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
2460:
2461:
2462: char z[1]="c", occ;
2463: #include <sys/time.h>
2464: #include <time.h>
2465: char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
2466:
2467: /* long total_usecs;
2468: struct timeval start_time, end_time;
2469:
2470: gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
2471:
2472:
2473: printf("\n%s",version);
2474: if(argc <=1){
2475: printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
2476: scanf("%s",pathtot);
2477: }
2478: else{
2479: strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
2480: }
2481: /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
2482: /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
2483: printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
2484: /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
2485:
2486: split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
2487: printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
2488: chdir(path);
2489: replace(pathc,path);
2490:
2491: /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
2492:
2493: strcpy(fileres,"r");
2494: strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
2495: strcat(fileres,".txt"); /* Other files have txt extension */
2496:
2497: /*---------arguments file --------*/
2498:
2499: if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL) {
2500: printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
2501: goto end;
2502: }
2503:
2504: strcpy(filereso,"o");
2505: strcat(filereso,fileres);
2506: if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {
2507: printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;
2508: }
2509:
2510: /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
2511: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
2512: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2513: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
2514: puts(line);
2515: fputs(line,ficparo);
2516: }
2517: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2518:
2519: fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncov, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
2520: printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
2521: fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncov,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
2522: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
2523: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2524: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
2525: puts(line);
2526: fputs(line,ficparo);
2527: }
2528: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2529:
2530:
2531: covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
2532: cptcovn=0;
2533: if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
2534:
2535: ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;
2536: nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
2537:
2538: /* Read guess parameters */
2539: /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
2540: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
2541: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2542: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
2543: puts(line);
2544: fputs(line,ficparo);
2545: }
2546: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2547:
2548: param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
2549: for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)
2550: for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
2551: fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
2552: fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
2553: printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
2554: for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
2555: fscanf(ficpar," %lf",¶m[i][j][k]);
2556: printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
2557: fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
2558: }
2559: fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
2560: printf("\n");
2561: fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
2562: }
2563:
2564: npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;
2565:
2566: p=param[1][1];
2567:
2568: /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
2569: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
2570: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2571: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
2572: puts(line);
2573: fputs(line,ficparo);
2574: }
2575: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2576:
2577: delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
2578: delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */
2579: for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
2580: for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
2581: fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
2582: printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
2583: fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
2584: for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
2585: fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
2586: printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
2587: fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
2588: }
2589: fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
2590: printf("\n");
2591: fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
2592: }
2593: }
2594: delti=delti3[1][1];
2595:
2596: /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
2597: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
2598: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2599: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
2600: puts(line);
2601: fputs(line,ficparo);
2602: }
2603: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2604:
2605: matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
2606: for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
2607: fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
2608: printf("%s",str);
2609: fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
2610: for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
2611: fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
2612: printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
2613: fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
2614: }
2615: fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
2616: printf("\n");
2617: fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
2618: }
2619: for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
2620: for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
2621: matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
2622:
2623: printf("\n");
2624:
2625:
2626: /*-------- data file ----------*/
2627: if((ficres =fopen(fileres,"w"))==NULL) {
2628: printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
2629: }
2630: fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
2631:
2632: if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL) {
2633: printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
2634: }
2635:
2636: n= lastobs;
2637: severity = vector(1,maxwav);
2638: outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
2639: num=ivector(1,n);
2640: moisnais=vector(1,n);
2641: annais=vector(1,n);
2642: moisdc=vector(1,n);
2643: andc=vector(1,n);
2644: agedc=vector(1,n);
2645: cod=ivector(1,n);
2646: weight=vector(1,n);
2647: for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
2648: mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
2649: anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
2650: s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
2651: adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
2652: tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
2653: ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
2654:
2655: i=1;
2656: while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) {
2657: if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {
2658:
2659: for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
2660: cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);
2661: strcpy(line,stra);
2662: cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2663: cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2664: }
2665:
2666: cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2667: cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2668:
2669: cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2670: cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2671:
2672: cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2673: for (j=ncov;j>=1;j--){
2674: cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
2675: }
2676: num[i]=atol(stra);
2677:
2678: /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
2679: printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]), (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]), (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]), (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
2680:
2681: i=i+1;
2682: }
2683: }
2684: /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
2685: scanf("%d",i);*/
2686: imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
2687:
2688: /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
2689: if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
2690: if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
2691: if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
2692: }
2693:
2694: for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)
2695: if (covar[1][i]==0) printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]), (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]), (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]), (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/
2696:
2697: /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/
2698: Tvar=ivector(1,15);
2699: Tprod=ivector(1,15);
2700: Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);
2701: Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
2702: Tage=ivector(1,15);
2703:
2704: if (strlen(model) >1){
2705: j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
2706: j=nbocc(model,'+');
2707: j1=nbocc(model,'*');
2708: cptcovn=j+1;
2709: cptcovprod=j1;
2710:
2711:
2712: strcpy(modelsav,model);
2713: if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
2714: printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
2715: goto end;
2716: }
2717:
2718: for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
2719: cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');
2720: if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);
2721: /* printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
2722: /*scanf("%d",i);*/
2723: if (strchr(strb,'*')) {
2724: cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');
2725: if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {
2726: cptcovprod--;
2727: cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
2728: Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
2729: cptcovage++;
2730: Tage[cptcovage]=i;
2731: /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
2732: }
2733: else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {
2734: cptcovprod--;
2735: cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
2736: Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
2737: cptcovage++;
2738: Tage[cptcovage]=i;
2739: }
2740: else {
2741: cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
2742: Tvar[i]=ncov+k1;
2743: cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');
2744: Tprod[k1]=i;
2745: Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);
2746: Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);
2747: Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
2748: Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
2749: for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)
2750: covar[ncov+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
2751: k1++;
2752: k2=k2+2;
2753: }
2754: }
2755: else {
2756: /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
2757: /* scanf("%d",i);*/
2758: cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
2759: Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
2760: }
2761: strcpy(modelsav,stra);
2762: /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
2763: scanf("%d",i);*/
2764: }
2765: }
2766:
2767: /*printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
2768: printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
2769: scanf("%d ",i);*/
2770: fclose(fic);
2771:
2772: /* if(mle==1){*/
2773: if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
2774: for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
2775: }
2776: /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
2777: agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
2778:
2779: for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)
2780: for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++)
2781: if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
2782: anint[m][i]=9999;
2783: s[m][i]=-1;
2784: }
2785:
2786: for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
2787: agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
2788: for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){
2789: if(s[m][i] >0){
2790: if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {
2791: if(agedc[i]>0)
2792: if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)
2793: agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
2794: else {
2795: if (andc[i]!=9999){
2796: printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);
2797: agev[m][i]=-1;
2798: }
2799: }
2800: }
2801: else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */
2802: agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
2803: if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)
2804: agev[m][i]=1;
2805: else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){
2806: agemin=agev[m][i];
2807: /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
2808: }
2809: else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
2810: agemax=agev[m][i];
2811: /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
2812: }
2813: /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
2814: /* agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
2815: }
2816: else { /* =9 */
2817: agev[m][i]=1;
2818: s[m][i]=-1;
2819: }
2820: }
2821: else /*= 0 Unknown */
2822: agev[m][i]=1;
2823: }
2824:
2825: }
2826: for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
2827: for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){
2828: if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
2829: printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");
2830: goto end;
2831: }
2832: }
2833: }
2834:
2835: printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
2836:
2837: free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
2838: free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
2839: free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
2840: free_vector(annais,1,n);
2841: /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
2842: free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
2843: free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
2844: free_vector(andc,1,n);
2845:
2846:
2847: wav=ivector(1,imx);
2848: dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
2849: mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
2850:
2851: /* Concatenates waves */
2852: concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev, firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
2853:
2854:
2855: Tcode=ivector(1,100);
2856: nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
2857: ncodemax[1]=1;
2858: if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
2859:
2860: codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);
2861: h=0;
2862: m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
2863:
2864: for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
2865: for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
2866: for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
2867: for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
2868: h++;
2869: if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;
2870: }
2871: }
2872: }
2873: }
2874:
2875:
2876: /*for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){
2877: for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
2878: printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
2879: }
2880: printf("\n");
2881: }
2882: scanf("%d",i);*/
2883:
2884: /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
2885: and prints on file fileres'p'. */
2886:
2887:
2888:
2889: pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
2890: oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
2891: newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
2892: savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
2893: oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
2894:
2895: /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
2896: so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
2897: p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
2898:
2899: if(mle==1){
2900: mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
2901: }
2902:
2903: /*--------- results files --------------*/
2904: fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);
2905:
2906:
2907: jk=1;
2908: fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");
2909: printf("# Parameters\n");
2910: for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
2911: for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
2912: if (k != i)
2913: {
2914: printf("%d%d ",i,k);
2915: fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
2916: for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
2917: printf("%f ",p[jk]);
2918: fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
2919: jk++;
2920: }
2921: printf("\n");
2922: fprintf(ficres,"\n");
2923: }
2924: }
2925: }
2926: if(mle==1){
2927: /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
2928: ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
2929: hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
2930: }
2931: fprintf(ficres,"# Scales\n");
2932: printf("# Scales\n");
2933: for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
2934: for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
2935: if (j!=i) {
2936: fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
2937: printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
2938: for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
2939: printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
2940: fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
2941: jk++;
2942: }
2943: printf("\n");
2944: fprintf(ficres,"\n");
2945: }
2946: }
2947: }
2948:
2949: k=1;
2950: fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");
2951: printf("# Covariance\n");
2952: for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){
2953: /* if (k>nlstate) k=1;
2954: i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;
2955: fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);
2956: printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/
2957: fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);
2958: printf("%3d",i);
2959: for(j=1; j<=i;j++){
2960: fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);
2961: printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);
2962: }
2963: fprintf(ficres,"\n");
2964: printf("\n");
2965: k++;
2966: }
2967:
2968: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
2969: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2970: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
2971: puts(line);
2972: fputs(line,ficparo);
2973: }
2974: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2975:
2976: fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);
2977:
2978: if (fage <= 2) {
2979: bage = agemin;
2980: fage = agemax;
2981: }
2982:
2983: fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
2984: fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);
2985: fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);
2986:
2987: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
2988: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2989: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
2990: puts(line);
2991: fputs(line,ficparo);
2992: }
2993: ungetc(c,ficpar);
2994:
2995: fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2);
2996: fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);
2997: fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);
2998:
2999: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
3000: ungetc(c,ficpar);
3001: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
3002: puts(line);
3003: fputs(line,ficparo);
3004: }
3005: ungetc(c,ficpar);
3006:
3007:
3008: dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;
3009: dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;
3010:
3011: fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
3012: fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
3013: fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
3014:
3015: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
3016: ungetc(c,ficpar);
3017: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
3018: puts(line);
3019: fputs(line,ficparo);
3020: }
3021: ungetc(c,ficpar);
3022: fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilav);
3023: fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);
3024: fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);
3025:
3026: freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);
3027:
3028: /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
3029: printinggnuplot(fileres,optionfilefiname,optionfile,optionfilegnuplot, agemin,agemax,fage, pathc,p);
3030:
3031: /*------------ free_vector -------------*/
3032: chdir(path);
3033:
3034: free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
3035: free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
3036: free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
3037: free_ivector(num,1,n);
3038: free_vector(agedc,1,n);
3039: /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
3040: fclose(ficparo);
3041: fclose(ficres);
3042:
3043: /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
3044: while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
3045: ungetc(c,ficpar);
3046: fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
3047: puts(line);
3048: fputs(line,ficparo);
3049: }
3050: ungetc(c,ficpar);
3051:
3052: fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);
3053: printf("agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax, bage, fage);
3054: fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);
3055: /*--------- index.htm --------*/
3056:
3057: printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,optionfile,optionfilehtm);
3058:
3059:
3060: /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/
3061:
3062: strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
3063: strcat(filerespl,fileres);
3064: if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
3065: printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
3066: }
3067: printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
3068: fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");
3069: fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
3070: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
3071: fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
3072:
3073: prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
3074: pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
3075: oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
3076: newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
3077: savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
3078: oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
3079: k=0;
3080: agebase=agemin;
3081: agelim=agemax;
3082: ftolpl=1.e-10;
3083: i1=cptcoveff;
3084: if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
3085:
3086: for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
3087: for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
3088: k=k+1;
3089: /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
3090: fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
3091: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
3092: fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
3093: fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
3094:
3095: for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
3096: prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
3097: fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );
3098: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
3099: fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
3100: fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
3101: }
3102: }
3103: }
3104: fclose(ficrespl);
3105:
3106: /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
3107:
3108: strcpy(filerespij,"pij"); strcat(filerespij,fileres);
3109: if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
3110: printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
3111: }
3112: printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
3113:
3114: stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
3115: /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
3116:
3117: agelim=AGESUP;
3118: hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
3119: hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
3120:
3121: k=0;
3122: for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
3123: for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
3124: k=k+1;
3125: fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
3126: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
3127: fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
3128: fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
3129:
3130: for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
3131: nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
3132: nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
3133: p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
3134: oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
3135: hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
3136: fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");
3137: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
3138: for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
3139: fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
3140: fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
3141: for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
3142: fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
3143: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
3144: for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
3145: fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
3146: fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
3147: }
3148: free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
3149: fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
3150: }
3151: }
3152: }
3153:
3154: /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/
3155:
3156: fclose(ficrespij);
3157:
3158:
3159: /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
3160: if(stepm == 1) {
3161: prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);
3162: populforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);
3163: free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
3164: free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
3165: free_vector(weight,1,n);}
3166: else{
3167: erreur=108;
3168: printf("Error %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d\n", erreur, stepm);
3169: }
3170:
3171:
3172: /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
3173:
3174: strcpy(filerest,"t");
3175: strcat(filerest,fileres);
3176: if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
3177: printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
3178: }
3179: printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);
3180:
3181:
3182: strcpy(filerese,"e");
3183: strcat(filerese,fileres);
3184: if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
3185: printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
3186: }
3187: printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
3188:
3189: strcpy(fileresv,"v");
3190: strcat(fileresv,fileres);
3191: if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
3192: printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
3193: }
3194: printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
3195:
3196: k=0;
3197: for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
3198: for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
3199: k=k+1;
3200: fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
3201: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
3202: fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
3203: fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
3204:
3205: fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
3206: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
3207: fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);
3208: fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
3209:
3210: fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
3211: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
3212: fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);
3213: fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
3214:
3215: eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
3216: oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
3217: evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);
3218: vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
3219: oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
3220: varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
3221:
3222:
3223:
3224: fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
3225: for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
3226: fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
3227:
3228: hf=1;
3229: if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;
3230: epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
3231: for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
3232: prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
3233: if (popbased==1) {
3234: for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
3235: prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
3236: }
3237:
3238: fprintf(ficrest," %.0f",age);
3239: for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
3240: for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
3241: epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*hf*eij[i][j][(int)age];
3242: }
3243: epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
3244: }
3245: for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
3246: for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
3247: vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
3248: fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],hf*sqrt(vepp));
3249: for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
3250: fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[j],hf*sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
3251: }
3252: fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
3253: }
3254: }
3255: }
3256:
3257: fclose(ficreseij);
3258: fclose(ficresvij);
3259: fclose(ficrest);
3260: fclose(ficpar);
3261: free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
3262:
3263: /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/
3264:
3265: strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
3266: strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
3267: if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
3268: printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
3269: exit(0);
3270: }
3271: printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
3272:
3273: k=0;
3274: for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
3275: for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
3276: k=k+1;
3277: fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
3278: for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
3279: fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
3280: fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
3281:
3282: varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
3283: oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
3284: varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
3285: }
3286: }
3287:
3288: fclose(ficresvpl);
3289:
3290: /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
3291: free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
3292:
3293: free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
3294: free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
3295:
3296:
3297: free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
3298: free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
3299: free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
3300: free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
3301:
3302: free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
3303: free_vector(delti,1,npar);
3304: free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
3305: free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
3306:
3307: if(erreur >0)
3308: printf("End of Imach with error %d\n",erreur);
3309: else printf("End of Imach\n");
3310: /* gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/ /* after time */
3311:
3312: /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/
3313: /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
3314: /*------ End -----------*/
3315:
3316:
3317: end:
3318: #ifdef windows
3319: /* chdir(pathcd);*/
3320: #endif
3321: /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
3322: /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
3323: /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/
3324: /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
3325: strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
3326: strcat(plotcmd," ");
3327: strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);
3328: system(plotcmd);
3329:
3330: #ifdef windows
3331: while (z[0] != 'q') {
3332: chdir(path);
3333: printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");
3334: scanf("%s",z);
3335: if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");
3336: else if (z[0] == 'e') {
3337: chdir(path);
3338: system(optionfilehtm);
3339: }
3340: else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
3341: }
3342: #endif
3343: }
3344:
3345:
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