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1: <html><head> 2: <title>IMaCh biaspar.htm</title></head> 3: <body>Imach version 0.98q5, August 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015 $Revision: 1.5 $ $Date: 2015/08/18 16:43:19 $ <hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E"> 4: Title=1st_example Datafile=data1.txt Firstpass=1 Lastpass=4 Stepm=1 Weight=0 Model= 5: 6: <hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E"> <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4> 7: - Parameter file: <a href="biaspar.imach">biaspar.imach</a> 8: - Copy of the parameter file: <a href="orbiaspar.txt">orbiaspar.txt</a> 9: - Log file of the run: <a href="biaspar.log">biaspar.log</a> 10: - Gnuplot file name: <a href="biaspar.gp">biaspar.gp</a> 11: - Date and time at start: Tue Aug 18 18:20:44 2015 12: </ul> 13: 14: Total number of observations=8270 15: Youngest age at first (selected) pass 70.00, oldest age 104.17 16: Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=1 Max=74 Mean=24.04 17: 18: File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href="biaspar/ilkrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/ilkrbiaspar.txt</a> 19: <ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a> 20: <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a> 21: </ul><ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4> 22: - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between 1/1/1984 and 1/6/1988): <a href="biaspar/prbiaspar.txt">biaspar/prbiaspar.txt</a> 23: - Estimated transition probabilities over 1 (stepm) months: <a href="biaspar/pijrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/pijrbiaspar.txt</a> 24: - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href="biaspar/plrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/plrbiaspar.txt</a> 25: - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm= 1 months): <a href="biaspar/erbiaspar.txt">biaspar/erbiaspar.txt</a> 26: - Population projections by age and states: <a href="biaspar/frbiaspar.txt">biaspar/frbiaspar.txt</a> 27: </li> 28: <ul><li>Graphs</li> - Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, 1 (stepm) months before: <a href="biaspar/pebiaspar1_1.png">biaspar/pebiaspar1_1.png</a> <img src="biaspar/pebiaspar1_1.png"> - Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i 1 (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href="biaspar/pebiaspar1_2.png">biaspar/pebiaspar1_2.png</a> <img src="biaspar/pebiaspar1_2.png"> - Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state 1. Or probability to be in state 1 being in state (1 to 2) at different ages. <a href="biaspar/pbiaspar1_1.png">biaspar/pbiaspar1_1.png</a> <img src="biaspar/pbiaspar1_1.png"> - Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state 2. Or probability to be in state 2 being in state (1 to 2) at different ages. <a href="biaspar/pbiaspar2_1.png">biaspar/pbiaspar2_1.png</a> <img src="biaspar/pbiaspar2_1.png"> 29: - Life expectancy by health state (1) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to 2) : <a href="biaspar/expbiaspar11.png">biaspar/expbiaspar11.png</a> <img src="biaspar/expbiaspar11.png"> 30: - Life expectancy by health state (2) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to 2) : <a href="biaspar/expbiaspar21.png">biaspar/expbiaspar21.png</a> <img src="biaspar/expbiaspar21.png"></ul> 31: <li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4> 32: - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href="rbiaspar.imach">rbiaspar.imach</a> - 95% confidence intervals and T statistics are in the log file. 33: - Standard deviation of one-step probabilities: <a href="biaspar/probrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/probrbiaspar.txt</a> 34: - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href="biaspar/probcovrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/probcovrbiaspar.txt</a> 35: - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href="biaspar/probcorrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/probcorrbiaspar.txt</a> 36: - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and initial health status (cov(eij,ekl)(estepm= 1 months): <a href="biaspar/cverbiaspar.txt">biaspar/cverbiaspar.txt</a> 37: </li> - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (eij) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (ei.=ei1+ei2+...)(estepm= 1 months): <a href="biaspar/stderbiaspar.txt">biaspar/stderbiaspar.txt</a> 38: </li> - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), eij are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=1 months): <a href="biaspar/vrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/vrbiaspar.txt</a> 39: - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e.j with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=1 months): <a href="biaspar/trbiaspar.txt">biaspar/trbiaspar.txt</a> 40: - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href="biaspar/vplrbiaspar.txt">biaspar/vplrbiaspar.txt</a> 41: <ul><li>Graphs</li> - Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) prevalence (with 95% confidence interval) in state (1): biaspar/vbiaspar1_1.png <img src="biaspar/vbiaspar1_1.png"> - Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) prevalence (with 95% confidence interval) in state (2): biaspar/vbiaspar2_1.png <img src="biaspar/vbiaspar2_1.png"> 42: - Total life expectancy by age and health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using observed and cahotic prevalences: biaspar/ebiaspar1.png <img src="biaspar/ebiaspar1.png"></ul> 43: <li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li> 44: 45: 46: <li><h4> <a href="biaspar-cov.htm">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li> 47: 48: <li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li> 49: 50: -stablbased- 51: 52: File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href="biaspar/prmorprev1-stablbased-rbiaspar.txt">biaspar/prmorprev1-stablbased-rbiaspar.txt</a> 53: 54: Probability is computed over estepm=1 months. <img src="biaspar/varmuptjgr-stablbased-biaspar1.png"> 55: Local time at start Tue Aug 18 18:20:44 2015 56: Local time at end Tue Aug 18 18:26:33 2015 57: 58: </body></html>