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version 1.5, 2005/06/10 08:54:06
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version 1.6, 2005/06/15 13:41:00
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Line 12 IMaCh</FONT></H1>
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Line 12 IMaCh</FONT></H1>
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| Program using Interpolation of Markov Chains)</FONT></H1>
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Program using Interpolation of Markov Chains)</FONT></H1>
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| <P align=center> </P>
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<P align=center> </P>
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| <P align=center><A href="http://www.ined.fr/"><IMG border=0 height=76
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<P align=center><A href="http://www.ined.fr/"><IMG border=0 height=76
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| src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/logo-ined.gif"
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src="logo-ined.gif"
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| width=151></A><IMG height=75
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width=151></A><IMG height=75
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| src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/euroreves2.gif"
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src="euroreves2.gif"
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| width=151></P>
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width=151></P>
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| <H3 align=center><A href="http://www.ined.fr/"><FONT
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<H3 align=center><A href="http://www.ined.fr/"><FONT
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| color=#00006a>INED</FONT></A><FONT color=#00006a> and </FONT><A
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color=#00006a>INED</FONT></A><FONT color=#00006a> and </FONT><A
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Line 44 color=#00006a><I>lievre@ined.fr</I></FON
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Line 44 color=#00006a><I>lievre@ined.fr</I></FON
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| <UL>
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<UL>
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| <LI><A
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<LI><A
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| href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#intro">Introduction</A>
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href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#intro">Introduction</A>
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| <LI><A href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#data">On what kind
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<LI><A href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#data">What kind
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| of data can it be used?</A>
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of data can is required?</A>
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| <LI><A href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#datafile">The data
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<LI><A href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#datafile">The data
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| file</A>
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file</A>
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| <LI><A href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#biaspar">The
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<LI><A href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc/imach.htm#biaspar">The
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Line 683 href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc
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Line 683 href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc
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| <P>By substitution of these parameters in the regression model, we obtain the
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<P>By substitution of these parameters in the regression model, we obtain the
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| elementary transition probabilities:</P>
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elementary transition probabilities:</P>
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| <P><IMG height=300
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<P><IMG height=300
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| src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/pebiaspar11.png"
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src="biaspar/pebiaspar11.png"
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| width=400></P>
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width=400></P>
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| <H5><FONT color=#ec5e5e size=3><B>- Transition probabilities</B></FONT><B>:
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<H5><FONT color=#ec5e5e size=3><B>- Transition probabilities</B></FONT><B>:
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| </B><A
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</B><A
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Line 754 living in institutions we would have con
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Line 754 living in institutions we would have con
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| disability will increase in the future (see the main publication if
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disability will increase in the future (see the main publication if
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| you are interested in real data and results which are opposite).</P>
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you are interested in real data and results which are opposite).</P>
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| <P><IMG height=300
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<P><IMG height=300
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| src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/vbiaspar21.png"
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src="biaspar/vbiaspar21.png"
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| width=400></P>
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width=400></P>
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| <H5><FONT color=#ec5e5e size=3><B>-Convergence to the period prevalence of
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<H5><FONT color=#ec5e5e size=3><B>-Convergence to the period prevalence of
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| disability</B></FONT><B>: </B><A
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disability</B></FONT><B>: </B><A
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| href="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/pbiaspar11.png"><B>biaspar/pbiaspar11.png</B></A><BR><IMG
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href="biaspar/pbiaspar11.png"><B>biaspar/pbiaspar11.png</B></A><BR><IMG
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| height=300
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height=300
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| src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/pbiaspar11.png"
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src="biaspar/pbiaspar11.png"
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| width=400> </H5>
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width=400> </H5>
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| <P>This graph plots the conditional transition probabilities from an initial
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<P>This graph plots the conditional transition probabilities from an initial
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| state (1=healthy in red at the bottom, or 2=disabled in green on the top) at age
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state (1=healthy in red at the bottom, or 2=disabled in green on the top) at age
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Line 791 href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc
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Line 791 href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach/doc
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| 81 5.9775 (0.0873) 3.3484 (0.0933) 2.0222 (0.1230) 4.4520 (0.1320)
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81 5.9775 (0.0873) 3.3484 (0.0933) 2.0222 (0.1230) 4.4520 (0.1320)
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| </PRE><PRE>For example 70 11.0180 (0.1277) 3.1950 (0.3635) 4.6500 (0.0871) 4.4807 (0.2187)
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</PRE><PRE>For example 70 11.0180 (0.1277) 3.1950 (0.3635) 4.6500 (0.0871) 4.4807 (0.2187)
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| means
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means
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| e11=11.0180 e12=3.1950 e21=4.6500 e22=4.4807 </PRE><PRE><IMG height=300 src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/expbiaspar21.png" width=400><IMG height=300 src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/expbiaspar11.png" width=400></PRE>
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e11=11.0180 e12=3.1950 e21=4.6500 e22=4.4807 </PRE><PRE><IMG height=300 src="biaspar/expbiaspar21.png" width=400><IMG height=300 src="biaspar/expbiaspar11.png" width=400></PRE>
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| <P>For example, life expectancy of a healthy individual at age 70 is 11.0 in the
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<P>For example, life expectancy of a healthy individual at age 70 is 11.0 in the
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| healthy state and 3.2 in the disability state (total of 14.2 years). If he was
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healthy state and 3.2 in the disability state (total of 14.2 years). If he was
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| disabled at age 70, his life expectancy will be shorter, 4.65 years in the
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disabled at age 70, his life expectancy will be shorter, 4.65 years in the
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Line 829 weighted mean of e11 and e21). e.2=3.30
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Line 829 weighted mean of e11 and e21). e.2=3.30
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| be spent in the disability state.</P>
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be spent in the disability state.</P>
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| <H5><FONT color=#ec5e5e size=3><B>-Total life expectancy by age and health
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<H5><FONT color=#ec5e5e size=3><B>-Total life expectancy by age and health
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| expectancies in states (1=healthy) and (2=disable)</B></FONT><B>: </B><A
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expectancies in states (1=healthy) and (2=disable)</B></FONT><B>: </B><A
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| href="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/ebiaspar1.png"><B>biaspar/ebiaspar1.png</B></A></H5>
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href="biaspar/ebiaspar1.png"><B>biaspar/ebiaspar1.png</B></A></H5>
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| <P>This figure represents the health expectancies and the total life expectancy
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<P>This figure represents the health expectancies and the total life expectancy
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| with a confidence interval (dashed line). </P><PRE> <IMG height=300 src="Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh_fichiers/ebiaspar1.png" width=400></PRE>
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with a confidence interval (dashed line). </P><PRE> <IMG height=300 src="biaspar/ebiaspar1.png" width=400></PRE>
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| <P>Standard deviations (obtained from the information matrix of the model) of
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<P>Standard deviations (obtained from the information matrix of the model) of
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| these quantities are very useful. Cross-longitudinal surveys are costly and do
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these quantities are very useful. Cross-longitudinal surveys are costly and do
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| not involve huge samples, generally a few thousands; therefore it is very
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not involve huge samples, generally a few thousands; therefore it is very
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