Annotation of imach/html/doc/mortality.htm, revision 1.1
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! 6: <title>Computing global mortality using IMaCh</title>
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! 13: <p align="center"><font color="#004080" size="5">Estimation of
! 14: the force of mortality independently of the initial health status
! 15: using IMaCh</font></p>
! 16:
! 17: <p align="center"><font color="#004080" size="5">May 2004</font></p>
! 18:
! 19: <hr size="3" color="#EC5E5E">
! 20:
! 21: <ul>
! 22: <li><a href="#intro"><font color="#004080">Introduction</font></a></li>
! 23: <li><a href="#math"><font color="#004080">Mathematical
! 24: modelisation of the age-specific mortality</font></a></li>
! 25: <li><a href="#param"><font color="#004080">The parameter file</font></a></li>
! 26: <li><a href="#graph"><font color="#004080">Output file and
! 27: graph</font></a></li>
! 28: </ul>
! 29:
! 30: <hr>
! 31:
! 32: <p><font color="#004080" size="4">Introduction</font><a
! 33: name="intro"></a></p>
! 34:
! 35: <p><font
! 36: color="#000000">Estimating mortality from the American LSOA
! 37: surveys or from the French HID survey or from many recent
! 38: cross-longitudinal surveys in various countries is neither easy
! 39: nor accurate with classical demographical tools. Even if dates of
! 40: death are checked with data from vital statistics and are of good
! 41: quality the samples are often too small to be divided into
! 42: subgroups. Also it is mandatory to estimate the mortality of
! 43: subgroups or even of the whole sample if it suspected of biases
! 44: in comparison with national mortality estimates.Using IMaCh
! 45: (0.96d) we are able to estimate status based age specific forces
! 46: of mortality and to derive global mortality by weighting them
! 47: according to age-specific cross-sectional prevalences but here we
! 48: are interested in estimating mortality directly i.e. without
! 49: specifying any health status. This is obviously a simple problem
! 50: but which is not so easy to solve because human mortality varies
! 51: exponentially with age and age must be controlled accurately.We
! 52: adapted a special program previously used to estimate mortality
! 53: from centenarians surveys to implement a survival model which
! 54: takes into account the exact duration between the first interview
! 55: and the death if the person died before the last interview or the
! 56: exact duration between the first and the last interview if the
! 57: person is still alive.We included this program as a new feature
! 58: of the IMaCh program version 0.97. </font></p>
! 59:
! 60: <hr>
! 61:
! 62: <p><font color="#004080" size="4">Mathematical modelisation of the
! 63: age-specific mortality</font><a name="math"></a></p>
! 64:
! 65: <p><font color="#000000" size="3">The force of mortality is parametrized
! 66: as a Gompertz fonction mu(x)=a exp(b*x) where x is age and a and
! 67: b are the parameters. The model implemented in IMaCh is detailed
! 68: in the pdf file </font><a href="docmortweb.pdf"><font
! 69: color="#000000" size="3">docmortweb.pdf</font></a></p>
! 70:
! 71: <hr>
! 72:
! 73: <p><font color="#004080" size="4">The parameter file</font><a
! 74: name="param"></a></p>
! 75:
! 76: <p><font color="#000000" size="3">The parameter file should be
! 77: the same as the maximisation. The estimation of the global
! 78: mortality is obtain when mle= -3. You can also choose the waves
! 79: (firstpass and lastpass), number of observation (lastobs) and to
! 80: add weights (weights).</font></p>
! 81:
! 82: <p><font color="#FF0000" size="3">Example of parameter file : </font><a
! 83: href="mortparam.imach"><font color="#FF0000" size="3">mortparam.imach</font></a></p>
! 84:
! 85: <hr>
! 86:
! 87: <p><font color="#004080" size="4">Output file and graph</font><a
! 88: name="graph"></a></p>
! 89:
! 90: <p><font color="#000000">When the run is finished, the user
! 91: should enter the caracter 'e' to get the results in a htm file.
! 92: This file contains the two parameters with confidence interval
! 93: and a graph of the age-specific mortality obtained with the
! 94: estimated parameters.</font></p>
! 95:
! 96: <p><font color="#FF0000" size="3">Example of output file :</font><font
! 97: color="#FF0000"> </font><a href="mortparam-mort.htm"><font
! 98: color="#FF0000">mortparam-mort.htm.</font></a></p>
! 99:
! 100: <ul>
! 101: <li><font color="#000000">Results : In this example, the two
! 102: parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval
! 103: in brackets) are<br>
! 104: <br>
! 105: p[1] = 0.026565 [0.022327 ; 0.030802]<br>
! 106: p[2] = 0.087517 [0.075484 ; 0.099550]<br>
! 107: <br>
! 108: So that the Gompertz equation modelling the force of
! 109: mortality expressed in years is :</font></li>
! 110: </ul>
! 111:
! 112: <pre><font color="#000000"> </font><font color="#000000"
! 113: size="4">mu(age) =0.026565*exp(0.087517*(age-71))</font><font
! 114: color="#000000">
! 115: </font></pre>
! 116:
! 117: <ul>
! 118: <li><font color="#000000">Graph : The figure </font><a
! 119: href="graphmort.png"><font color="#000000">graphmort.png</font></a><font
! 120: color="#000000"> represents the age-specific mortality
! 121: mu(age) according to the previous equation.</font></li>
! 122: </ul>
! 123:
! 124: <p><font color="#004080"><img src="graphmort.gif" width="415"
! 125: height="311"></font></p>
! 126:
! 127: <hr>
! 128:
! 129: <p> </p>
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