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@ $Revision: 1.10 $ $Date: 2006/03/15 18:31:43 $ Imach version 0.98e, March 2006, INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite @ ,A DIRC2 = %s
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@A :0yE> ?
<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href="%s">%s</a><br>
w #individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total
#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++ -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)
Problem with resultfile: %s
Powell Powell
# Powell
# iter -2*LL p%1d%1d
#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f
#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f
#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f
-C 6? ? h㈵>h㈵> > ?Singular matrix in routine ludcmp #B ;
Calculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...
Calculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...
Inverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...
Inverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...
#Hessian matrix#
#Hessian matrix#
%.3e .%d%d # %s.%s
#%s
#%s
# %s
#********** Variable V%d=%d **********
# Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N Age %d %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%% %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%% %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%% %d %.5f %.0f %.0f %d%d=%.0f Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s
%d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%% %d NaNq %.0f %.0f Others in log... Total See log file for details... |= B h㈵>Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d
@AWarning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file
Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)
Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f
Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d
Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d
We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.
C ? (@# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age
# Age e%1d%1d e%1d. %d| %3.0f %9.4f Problem %d lower than %d
C @A ? ?# Health expectancies with standard errors
e%1d%1d (SE) # Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)
%1d%1d,%1d%1d %9.4f (%.4f) %.4f C @A ? ?%-d Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s'
# Age cov=%-d # probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()
p.%-d SE w%1d p%-d%-d
# Routine varevsij
<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>
<br>%s <br>
# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j
# (weighted average of eij where weights are the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state
Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d) %3d %d %11.3e %11.3e %11.3e %11.3e %.0f
set noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65
set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel "Age"; set ylabel "Force of mortality (year-1)";
plot "%s" u 1:($3) not w l 1
replot "%s" u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t "95%% interval" w l 2
replot "%s" u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2
<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href="%s">%s</a>
varmuptjgr
<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src="%s%s.png"> <br>
set out "%s%s.png";replot;
the age specific prevalence observed in the population i.e cross-sectionally
in each health state (popbased=1) Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d
@A ? ? @`@# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences
%1d-%1d %.5f (%.5f) ?Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s'
Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s'
and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s'
#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()
#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix
#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix
p%1d-%1d (SE) p%1d-%1d
<li><h4> <a href="%s">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>
# Routine varprob
<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>
<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>
file %s<br>
Ellipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimatedand drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences. They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>
<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 standard deviations wide on each axis. <br> Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br>
**********
#
V%d=%d
<hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E">********** Variable **********
<hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E">
%d %11.3e (%11.3e) %d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f
%d (%.3f),
# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d
set label "%d" at %11.3e,%11.3e center
replot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not varpijgr
set out "%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png";replot;
set parametric;unset label
set log y;set log x; set xlabel "p%1d%1d (year-1)";set ylabel "p%1d%1d (year-1)"
set ter png small
set size 0.65,0.65
<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href="%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png">%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>,
<br><img src="%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png">
<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),
set out "%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png"
plot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not %d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f
Others in log...
%11.3e
%d %d-%d %11.3e ? (@ @ ?<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>
<li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>
</ul> p <ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>
- Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
pij - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href="%s">%s</a><br>
pl - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
e - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age: ei., eij (estepm=%2d months): <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
</li>
<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p> <hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E">************ Results for covariates ************
<hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E"> pe <br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href="%s%d1.png">%s%d1.png</a><br> <img src="%s%d1.png"> <br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href="%s%d2.png">%s%d2.png</a><br> <img src="%s%d2.png"> <br>- Period (stable) prevalence in each health state : <a href="%s%d%d.png">%s%d%d.png</a><br> <img src="%s%d%d.png"> exp
<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies : <a href="%s%d%d.png">%s%d%d.png</a> <br> <img src="%s%d%d.png"> </ul>
<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>
- Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
prob - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
probcov - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
probcor - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
cve - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
</li> stde - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
</li> v - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), eij are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences (i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href="%s">%s</a><br>
t - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors: <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
vpl - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href="%s">%s</a> <br>
<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p> <br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br><img src="%s%d%d.png">
<br>- Total life expectancy by age and health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br><img src="%s%d.png"> cd "%s"
p%d=%f " t"Period (stable) prevalence" w l 0,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) "%%lf %%lf (%%lf) %%*lf (%%*lf) " t"95%% CI" w l 1,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) "%%lf " t"" w l 1,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t"Observed prevalence " w l 2
set out "%s%d%d.png"
#set out "v%s%d%d.png"
set xlabel "Age"
set ylabel "Probability"
set ter png small
set size 0.65,0.65
plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 "%%lf
set out "%s%d.png"
set ylabel "Years"
set ter png small
set size 0.65,0.65
plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 "%%lf " t"LE in state (%d)" w l , "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) "%%lf " t"" w l 0, "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) "%%lf set ter png small
set size 0.65,0.65
plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t "e%d1" w l ,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t "e%d%d" w l ,"%s" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t "e%d." w l set xlabel "Age"
set ylabel "Probability"
set ter png small
set size 0.65,0.65
unset log y
plot [%.f:%.f] "%s" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d +$%d )) t"prev(%d,%d)" w l ,"%s" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d )) t"prev(%d,%d)" w l
set title "Probability"
set ter png small
set size 0.65,0.65
set log y
plot [%.f:%.f] exp(p%d+p%d*x +p%d*%d +p%d*%d*x )/(1 +exp(p%d+p%d*x ) t "p%d%d" %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x
set ylabel "Quasi-incidence per year"
" t"" w l 0 " t"TLE" w l , @AProblem with forecast resultfile: %s
Computing forecasting: result on file '%s'
# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f
#****** Routine prevforecast **
#****** V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ******
# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age p%d%d p.%d
# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf %.3f %d %d %.f %.f @A A ? ? @`@ P.%d
# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf r %d %lf
%15.2f
%3.f [Population] Problem with population file : %s
@A C ? ? @`@ (@a Problem with file: %s
# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ... # Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...
%1d%1d 0. # Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation) # Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)
# Covariance matrix # Covariance matrix
%1d%1d%d Var(%s%1d%1d) Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d) #%1d%1d%d (@ <ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>
Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br> mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br> p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>
<br><br><img src="graphmort.png"> <ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>
<br>
Age l<inf>x</inf> q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1) L<inf>x</inf> T<inf>x</inf> e<infx</inf><br> %d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>
@set out "graphmort.png"
set xlabel "Age"
set ylabel "Force of mortality (per year)"
set ter png small
set log y
set size 0.65,0.65
plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d)) b c d c
%s
%s
argv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s,
argv[0]=%s pathimach=%s,
optionfile=%s
optionfilext=%s
optionfilefiname=%s
pathtot=%s,
path=%s,
optionfile=%s
optionfilext=%s
optionfilefiname=%s
Log filename:%s
Enter the parameter file name:
pathimach=%s
pathtot=%s
path=%s
optionfile=%s
optionfilext=%s
optionfilefiname=%s
Local time (at start):%s Local time (at start): %s title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d
ftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s
title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d
ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d
model=%s
%lf
Problem with optionfile %s
Type q for exiting: %s Problem with logfile %s
Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d
Current directory %s!
Enter the parameter file name: Pathr |%s|
" val= |%s| pathr=%s
%le %le %.5le #%s
%d/%d %s. Problem with Output resultfile: %s
You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix
Problem writing new parameter file: %s
Problem while opening datafile: %s
Comment line
%s
Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d
Error reading data around '%d' at line number %d %s for individual %d, '%s'
Should be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong. Exiting.
Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'
Should be a covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1). Exiting.
Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'
Should be a value of the %d covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1. IMaCh does not build design variables, do it your self). Exiting.
age age*age Error. Non available option model=%s Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d
Should be a weight. Exiting.
Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'
Should be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d. Exiting.
You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix
Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.
Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.
Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d
Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased
Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d
Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f
Problem with file %s <body>
<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title>
<font size="2">%s <br> %s</font> <hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E">
Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>
<body>
<title>IMaCh %s</title>
<font size="2">%s <br> %s</font> <hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E">
Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>
<hr size="2" color="#EC5E5E"> <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>
- Parameter file: <a href="%s.%s">%s.%s</a><br>
- Copy of the parameter file: <a href="o%s">o%s</a><br>
- Log file of the run: <a href="%s">%s</a><br>
- Gnuplot file name: <a href="%s">%s</a><br>
- Date and time at start: %s</ul>
<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>
Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>
Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>
First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f %d %8.5f Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d
ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d
model=%s
%d%d %1d%1d %f
# %s
# %s
set missing 'NaNq'
%.5e # Covariance matrix
# 121 Var(a12)
# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)
# ...
# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)
# Covariance matrix
# 121 Var(a12)
# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)
# ...
# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)
Covariance matrix
iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))
%f [%f ; %f]
agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d
# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).
agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d
begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d
begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d
pop_based=%d
prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d
prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d
Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s'
# Period (stable) prevalence
#Age %d-%d ****** %.5f Computing pij: result on file '%s'
#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x
#****** # Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j= %d %3.f %3.f Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s'
Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s'
Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s'
Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s'
Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s'
# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state
# Age ( e.. (std) e.%d (std) %4.0f %7.3f (%7.3f) Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s'
End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings
End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d
See log file on %s
Local time at start %s
Local time at end %s
Local time at start %s
Local time at end %s Total time used %s
Total time was %d Sec.
<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end %s<br> Before Current directory %s!
Can't move to directory %s!
"%sgnuplot.exe" Error gnuplot program not found: %s
GNUPLOTBIN Error gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.
%s %s Starting graphs with: %s
Problem with gnuplot Wait...
Type e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: Starting browser with: %s Problem with variance resultfile: %s
Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s
Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s
Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s
End of Imach End of Imach
Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s
Problem with total LE resultfile: %s
Problem with Pij resultfile: %s
Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s
Age lx qx dx Lx Tx e(x) %d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf
Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'
Should be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.
Problem with %s
Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'
Should be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.
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