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Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.125 and 1.199

-version 1.125, 2006/04/04 15:20:31
+version 1.199, 2015/09/07 14:09:23
  Line 1
  /* $Id$
    $State$
    $Log$
+   Revision 1.199  2015/09/07 14:09:23  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98q6 changing default small png format for graph to vectorized svg.
+   Revision 1.198  2015/09/03 07:14:39  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98q5 Flavia
+   Revision 1.197  2015/09/01 18:24:39  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.196  2015/08/18 23:17:52  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98q5
+   Revision 1.195  2015/08/18 16:28:39  brouard
+   Summary: Adding a hack for testing purpose
+   After reading the title, ftol and model lines, if the comment line has
+   a q, starting with #q, the answer at the end of the run is quit. It
+   permits to run test files in batch with ctest. The former workaround was
+   $ echo q | imach foo.imach
+   Revision 1.194  2015/08/18 13:32:00  brouard
+   Summary:  Adding error when the covariance matrix doesn't contain the exact number of lines required by the model line.
+   Revision 1.193  2015/08/04 07:17:42  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98q4
+   Revision 1.192  2015/07/16 16:49:02  brouard
+   Summary: Fixing some outputs
+   Revision 1.191  2015/07/14 10:00:33  brouard
+   Summary: Some fixes
+   Revision 1.190  2015/05/05 08:51:13  brouard
+   Summary: Adding digits in output parameters (7 digits instead of 6)
+   Fix 1+age+.
+   Revision 1.189  2015/04/30 14:45:16  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98q2
+   Revision 1.188  2015/04/30 08:27:53  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.187  2015/04/29 09:11:15  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.186  2015/04/23 12:01:52  brouard
+   Summary: V1*age is working now, version 0.98q1
+   Some codes had been disabled in order to simplify and Vn*age was
+   working in the optimization phase, ie, giving correct MLE parameters,
+   but, as usual, outputs were not correct and program core dumped.
+   Revision 1.185  2015/03/11 13:26:42  brouard
+   Summary: Inclusion of compile and links command line for Intel Compiler
+   Revision 1.184  2015/03/11 11:52:39  brouard
+   Summary: Back from Windows 8. Intel Compiler
+   Revision 1.183  2015/03/10 20:34:32  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98q0, trying with directest, mnbrak fixed
+   We use directest instead of original Powell test; probably no
+   incidence on the results, but better justifications;
+   We fixed Numerical Recipes mnbrak routine which was wrong and gave
+   wrong results.
+   Revision 1.182  2015/02/12 08:19:57  brouard
+   Summary: Trying to keep directest which seems simpler and more general
+   Author: Nicolas Brouard
+   Revision 1.181  2015/02/11 23:22:24  brouard
+   Summary: Comments on Powell added
+   Author:
+   Revision 1.180  2015/02/11 17:33:45  brouard
+   Summary: Finishing move from main to function (hpijx and prevalence_limit)
+   Revision 1.179  2015/01/04 09:57:06  brouard
+   Summary: back to OS/X
+   Revision 1.178  2015/01/04 09:35:48  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.177  2015/01/03 18:40:56  brouard
+   Summary: Still testing ilc32 on OSX
+   Revision 1.176  2015/01/03 16:45:04  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.175  2015/01/03 16:33:42  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.174  2015/01/03 16:15:49  brouard
+   Summary: Still in cross-compilation
+   Revision 1.173  2015/01/03 12:06:26  brouard
+   Summary: trying to detect cross-compilation
+   Revision 1.172  2014/12/27 12:07:47  brouard
+   Summary: Back from Visual Studio and Intel, options for compiling for Windows XP
+   Revision 1.171  2014/12/23 13:26:59  brouard
+   Summary: Back from Visual C
+   Still problem with utsname.h on Windows
+   Revision 1.170  2014/12/23 11:17:12  brouard
+   Summary: Cleaning some \%% back to %%
+   The escape was mandatory for a specific compiler (which one?), but too many warnings.
+   Revision 1.169  2014/12/22 23:08:31  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98p
+   Outputs some informations on compiler used, OS etc. Testing on different platforms.
+   Revision 1.168  2014/12/22 15:17:42  brouard
+   Summary: update
+   Revision 1.167  2014/12/22 13:50:56  brouard
+   Summary: Testing uname and compiler version and if compiled 32 or 64
+   Testing on Linux 64
+   Revision 1.166  2014/12/22 11:40:47  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.165  2014/12/16 11:20:36  brouard
+   Summary: After compiling on Visual C
+   * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
+   Revision 1.164  2014/12/16 10:52:11  brouard
+   Summary: Merging with Visual C after suppressing some warnings for unused variables. Also fixing Saito's bug 0.98Xn
+   * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
+   Revision 1.163  2014/12/16 10:30:11  brouard
+   * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
+   Revision 1.162  2014/09/25 11:43:39  brouard
+   Summary: temporary backup 0.99!
+   Revision 1.1  2014/09/16 11:06:58  brouard
+   Summary: With some code (wrong) for nlopt
+   Author:
+   Revision 1.161  2014/09/15 20:41:41  brouard
+   Summary: Problem with macro SQR on Intel compiler
+   Revision 1.160  2014/09/02 09:24:05  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.159  2014/09/01 10:34:10  brouard
+   Summary: WIN32
+   Author: Brouard
+   Revision 1.158  2014/08/27 17:11:51  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.157  2014/08/27 16:26:55  brouard
+   Summary: Preparing windows Visual studio version
+   Author: Brouard
+   In order to compile on Visual studio, time.h is now correct and time_t
+   and tm struct should be used. difftime should be used but sometimes I
+   just make the differences in raw time format (time(&now).
+   Trying to suppress #ifdef LINUX
+   Add xdg-open for __linux in order to open default browser.
+   Revision 1.156  2014/08/25 20:10:10  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.155  2014/08/25 18:32:34  brouard
+   Summary: New compile, minor changes
+   Author: Brouard
+   Revision 1.154  2014/06/20 17:32:08  brouard
+   Summary: Outputs now all graphs of convergence to period prevalence
+   Revision 1.153  2014/06/20 16:45:46  brouard
+   Summary: If 3 live state, convergence to period prevalence on same graph
+   Author: Brouard
+   Revision 1.152  2014/06/18 17:54:09  brouard
+   Summary: open browser, use gnuplot on same dir than imach if not found in the path
+   Revision 1.151  2014/06/18 16:43:30  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.150  2014/06/18 16:42:35  brouard
+   Summary: If gnuplot is not in the path try on same directory than imach binary (OSX)
+   Author: brouard
+   Revision 1.149  2014/06/18 15:51:14  brouard
+   Summary: Some fixes in parameter files errors
+   Author: Nicolas Brouard
+   Revision 1.148  2014/06/17 17:38:48  brouard
+   Summary: Nothing new
+   Author: Brouard
+   Just a new packaging for OS/X version 0.98nS
+   Revision 1.147  2014/06/16 10:33:11  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.146  2014/06/16 10:20:28  brouard
+   Summary: Merge
+   Author: Brouard
+   Merge, before building revised version.
+   Revision 1.145  2014/06/10 21:23:15  brouard
+   Summary: Debugging with valgrind
+   Author: Nicolas Brouard
+   Lot of changes in order to output the results with some covariates
+   After the Edimburgh REVES conference 2014, it seems mandatory to
+   improve the code.
+   No more memory valgrind error but a lot has to be done in order to
+   continue the work of splitting the code into subroutines.
+   Also, decodemodel has been improved. Tricode is still not
+   optimal. nbcode should be improved. Documentation has been added in
+   the source code.
+   Revision 1.143  2014/01/26 09:45:38  brouard
+   Summary: Version 0.98nR (to be improved, but gives same optimization results as 0.98k. Nice, promising
+   * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
+   (Module): Version 0.98nR Running ok, but output format still only works for three covariates.
+   Revision 1.142  2014/01/26 03:57:36  brouard
+   Summary: gnuplot changed plot w l 1 has to be changed to plot w l lt 2
+   * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
+   Revision 1.141  2014/01/26 02:42:01  brouard
+   * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
+   Revision 1.140  2011/09/02 10:37:54  brouard
+   Summary: times.h is ok with mingw32 now.
+   Revision 1.139  2010/06/14 07:50:17  brouard
+   After the theft of my laptop, I probably lost some lines of codes which were not uploaded to the CVS tree.
+   I remember having already fixed agemin agemax which are pointers now but not cvs saved.
+   Revision 1.138  2010/04/30 18:19:40  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.137  2010/04/29 18:11:38  brouard
+   (Module): Checking covariates for more complex models
+   than V1+V2. A lot of change to be done. Unstable.
+   Revision 1.136  2010/04/26 20:30:53  brouard
+   (Module): merging some libgsl code. Fixing computation
+   of likelione (using inter/intrapolation if mle = 0) in order to
+   get same likelihood as if mle=1.
+   Some cleaning of code and comments added.
+   Revision 1.135  2009/10/29 15:33:14  brouard
+   (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
+   Revision 1.134  2009/10/29 13:18:53  brouard
+   (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
+   Revision 1.133  2009/07/06 10:21:25  brouard
+   just nforces
+   Revision 1.132  2009/07/06 08:22:05  brouard
+   Many tings
+   Revision 1.131  2009/06/20 16:22:47  brouard
+   Some dimensions resccaled
+   Revision 1.130  2009/05/26 06:44:34  brouard
+   (Module): Max Covariate is now set to 20 instead of 8. A
+   lot of cleaning with variables initialized to 0. Trying to make
+   V2+V3*age+V1+V4 strb=V3*age+V1+V4 working better.
+   Revision 1.129  2007/08/31 13:49:27  lievre
+   Modification of the way of exiting when the covariate is not binary in order to see on the window the error message before exiting
+   Revision 1.128  2006/06/30 13:02:05  brouard
+   (Module): Clarifications on computing e.j
+   Revision 1.127  2006/04/28 18:11:50  brouard
+   (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
+   imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
+   loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
+   (Module): In order to speed up (in case of numerous covariates) we
+   compute health expectancies (without variances) in a first step
+   and then all the health expectancies with variances or standard
+   deviation (needs data from the Hessian matrices) which slows the
+   computation.
+   In the future we should be able to stop the program is only health
+   expectancies and graph are needed without standard deviations.
+   Revision 1.126  2006/04/28 17:23:28  brouard
+   (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
+   imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
+   loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
+   Version 0.98h
    Revision 1.125  2006/04/04 15:20:31  lievre
    Errors in calculation of health expectancies. Age was not initialized.
    Forecasting file added.
    Revision 1.124  2006/03/22 17:13:53  lievre
    Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma).
    The log-likelihood is printed in the log file
    Revision 1.123  2006/03/20 10:52:43  brouard
    * imach.c (Module): <title> changed, corresponds to .htm file
    name. <head> headers where missing.
    * imach.c (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
    otherwise the weight is truncated).
    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
 .
    Version 0.98g
    Revision 1.122  2006/03/20 09:45:41  brouard
    (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
    otherwise the weight is truncated).
    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
 .
    Version 0.98g
    Revision 1.121  2006/03/16 17:45:01  lievre
    * imach.c (Module): Comments concerning covariates added
    * imach.c (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
    Revision 1.120  2006/03/16 15:10:38  lievre
    (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
    Revision 1.119  2006/03/15 17:42:26  brouard
    (Module): Bug if status = -2, the loglikelihood was
    computed as likelihood omitting the logarithm. Version O.98e
    Revision 1.118  2006/03/14 18:20:07  brouard
    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
    table of variances if popbased=1 .
    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
    (Module): Function pstamp added
    (Module): Version 0.98d
    Revision 1.117  2006/03/14 17:16:22  brouard
    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
    table of variances if popbased=1 .
    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
    (Module): Function pstamp added
    (Module): Version 0.98d
    Revision 1.116  2006/03/06 10:29:27  brouard
    (Module): Variance-covariance wrong links and
    varian-covariance of ej. is needed (Saito).
    Revision 1.115  2006/02/27 12:17:45  brouard
    (Module): One freematrix added in mlikeli! 0.98c
    Revision 1.114  2006/02/26 12:57:58  brouard
    (Module): Some improvements in processing parameter
    filename with strsep.
    Revision 1.113  2006/02/24 14:20:24  brouard
    (Module): Memory leaks checks with valgrind and:
    datafile was not closed, some imatrix were not freed and on matrix
    allocation too.
    Revision 1.112  2006/01/30 09:55:26  brouard
    (Module): Back to gnuplot.exe instead of wgnuplot.exe
    Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
    (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
    can be a simple dot '.'.
    Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
    Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
    (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
    Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
    Gnuplot problem appeared...
    To be fixed
    Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
    Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
    Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
    Some cleaning and links added in html output
    Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
    *** empty log message ***
    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
    that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
    (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
    contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
    health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
    the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
    Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
    Fix on curr_time
    Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
    Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
    *** empty log message ***
    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
    New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
    directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
    state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
    This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
    other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
    cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
    from other sources like vital statistic data.
    The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
-   Agn�s, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
+   Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
    former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
    The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
    the slope with 95% confident intervals.
    Current limitations:
    A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
    model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
    B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
    suppressed.
    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
    * imach.c (Repository):
    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
    Just cleaning
    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
    (Module): Version 0.96b
    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
    helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
    of the covariance matrix to be input.
    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
    of the covariance matrix to be input.
    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
    Version 0.96
    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
    routine fileappend.
    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
    interview.
    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
    truncation)
    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
    parcimony.
    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
    *** empty log message ***
    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
  */
  /*
     Interpolated Markov Chain
    Short summary of the programme:
    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
    convergence.
    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.
    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
    hPijx.
    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
    of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence.
-   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agn�s Li�vre (lievre@ined.fr).
+   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
-            Institut national d'�tudes d�mographiques, Paris.
+            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
    from the European Union.
    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
    **********************************************************************/
  /*
    main
    read parameterfile
    read datafile
    concatwav
    freqsummary
    if (mle >= 1)
      mlikeli
    print results files
    if mle==1
       computes hessian
    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
        begin-prev-date,...
    open gnuplot file
    open html file
-   period (stable) prevalence
+   period (stable) prevalence      | pl_nom    1-1 2-2 etc by covariate
-    for age prevalim()
+    for age prevalim()             | #****** V1=0  V2=1  V3=1  V4=0 ******
-   h Pij x
+                                   | 65 1 0 2 1 3 1 4 0  0.96326 0.03674
-   variance of p varprob
+     freexexit2 possible for memory heap.
-   forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
-   health expectancies
+   h Pij x                         | pij_nom  ficrestpij
-   Variance-covariance of DFLE
+    # Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j= 1-1 1-2     1-3     2-1     2-2     2-3
-   prevalence()
+ 85   85    1.00000             0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000
-    movingaverage()
+ 85   86    0.68299             0.22291 0.09410 0.71093 0.00000 0.28907
-   varevsij()
-   if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
+ 65   99    0.00364             0.00322 0.99314 0.00350 0.00310 0.99340
-   total life expectancies
+ 65  100    0.00214             0.00204 0.99581 0.00206 0.00196 0.99597
-   Variance of period (stable) prevalence
+   variance of p one-step probabilities varprob  | prob_nom   ficresprob #One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()
-  end
+    Standard deviation of one-step probabilities | probcor_nom   ficresprobcor #One-step probabilities and correlation matrix
- */
+    Matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities |  probcov_nom ficresprobcov #One-step probabilities and covariance matrix
+   forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
+   health expectancies
+   Variance-covariance of DFLE
- #include <math.h>
+   prevalence()
- #include <stdio.h>
+    movingaverage()
- #include <stdlib.h>
+   varevsij()
- #include <string.h>
+   if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
- #include <unistd.h>
+   total life expectancies
+   Variance of period (stable) prevalence
- #include <limits.h>
+  end
- #include <sys/types.h>
+ */
- #include <sys/stat.h>
- #include <errno.h>
+ /* #define DEBUG */
- extern int errno;
+ /* #define DEBUGBRENT */
+ #define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */
- /* #include <sys/time.h> */
+ #define POWELLF1F3 /* Skip test */
- #include <time.h>
+ /* #define POWELLORIGINAL /\* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test *\/ */
- #include "timeval.h"
+ /* #define MNBRAKORIGINAL /\* Don't use mnbrak fix *\/ */
- /* #include <libintl.h> */
+ #include <math.h>
- /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
+ #include <stdio.h>
+ #include <stdlib.h>
- #define MAXLINE 256
+ #include <string.h>
- #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
+ #ifdef _WIN32
- /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
+ #include <io.h>
- #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
+ #include <windows.h>
+ #include <tchar.h>
- #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
+ #else
- #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
+ #include <unistd.h>
+ #endif
- #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
- #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
+ #include <limits.h>
+ #include <sys/types.h>
- #define NINTERVMAX 8
- #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
+ #if defined(__GNUC__)
- #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
+ #include <sys/utsname.h> /* Doesn't work on Windows */
- #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
+ #endif
- #define MAXN 20000
- #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
+ #include <sys/stat.h>
- #define AGESUP 130
+ #include <errno.h>
- #define AGEBASE 40
+ /* extern int errno; */
- #define AGEGOMP 10. /* Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
- #ifdef UNIX
+ /* #ifdef LINUX */
- #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
+ /* #include <time.h> */
- #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
+ /* #include "timeval.h" */
- #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
+ /* #else */
- #else
+ /* #include <sys/time.h> */
- #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
+ /* #endif */
- #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
- #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
+ #include <time.h>
- #endif
+ #ifdef GSL
- /* $Id$ */
+ #include <gsl/gsl_errno.h>
- /* $State$ */
+ #include <gsl/gsl_multimin.h>
+ #endif
- char version[]="Imach version 0.98g, March 2006, INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite ";
- char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$";
- char strstart[80];
+ #ifdef NLOPT
- char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ #include <nlopt.h>
- int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
+ typedef struct {
- int nvar;
+   double (* function)(double [] );
- int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
+ } myfunc_data ;
- int npar=NPARMAX;
+ #endif
- int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
- int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
+ /* #include <libintl.h> */
- int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
+ /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
- int popbased=0;
+ #define MAXLINE 1024 /* Was 256. Overflow with 312 with 2 states and 4 covariates. Should be ok */
- int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
- int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
+ #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
- int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
+ /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
- int ijmin, ijmax; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */
+ #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
- int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions
-                    to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
+ #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
- int mle, weightopt;
+ #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
- int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
- int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
+ #define MAXPARM 128 /**< Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
- int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
+ #define NPARMAX 64 /**< (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
-            * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
- double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
+ #define NINTERVMAX 8
- double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
+ #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of live states (for func) */
- double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
+ #define NDEATHMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
- FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
+ #define NCOVMAX 20 /**< Maximum number of covariates, including generated covariates V1*V2 */
- FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
+ #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
- int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
+ #define MAXN 20000
- double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
+ #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
- long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
+ #define AGESUP 130
- double sw; /* Sum of weights */
+ #define AGEBASE 40
- char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ #define AGEOVERFLOW 1.e20
- char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
+ #define AGEGOMP 10 /**< Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
- FILE *ficresilk;
+ #ifdef _WIN32
- FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
+ #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
- FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
+ #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
- FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
+ #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
- FILE *ficreseij;
+ #else
- char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
- FILE *ficresstdeij;
+ #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
- char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
- FILE *ficrescveij;
+ #endif
- char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
- FILE  *ficresvij;
+ /* $Id$ */
- char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ /* $State$ */
- FILE  *ficresvpl;
+ #include "version.h"
- char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char version[]=__IMACH_VERSION__;
- char title[MAXLINE];
+ char copyright[]="September 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
- char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$";
- char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char strstart[80];
- char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
- char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ int erreur=0, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
- int  outcmd=0;
+ int nagesqr=0, nforce=0; /* nagesqr=1 if model is including age*age, number of forces */
+ /* Number of covariates model=V2+V1+ V3*age+V2*V4 */
- char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ int cptcovn=0; /**< cptcovn number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age and age*product) */
+ int cptcovt=0; /**< cptcovt number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age) */
- char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
+ int cptcovs=0; /**< cptcovs number of simple covariates V2+V1 =2 */
- char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariates with age: V3*age only =1 */
- char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ int cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age */
- char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ int cptcoveff=0; /* Total number of covariates to vary for printing results */
+ int cptcov=0; /* Working variable */
- char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
+ int npar=NPARMAX;
+ int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
- struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
+ int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
- struct timezone tzp;
+ int ncovmodel=0, ncovcol=0;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
- extern int gettimeofday();
+ int popbased=0;
- struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
- long time_value;
+ int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
- extern long time();
+ int maxwav=0; /* Maxim number of waves */
- char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
+ int jmin=0, jmax=0; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
+ int ijmin=0, ijmax=0; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */
- char *endptr;
+ int gipmx=0, gsw=0; /* Global variables on the number of contributions
- long lval;
+                    to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
- double dval;
+ int mle=1, weightopt=0;
+ int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
- #define NR_END 1
+ int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
- #define FREE_ARG char*
+ int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
- #define FTOL 1.0e-10
+            * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
+ int countcallfunc=0;  /* Count the number of calls to func */
- #define NRANSI
+ double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
- #define ITMAX 200
+ double **matprod2(); /* test */
+ double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
- #define TOL 2.0e-4
+ double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
+ /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */
- #define CGOLD 0.3819660
+ FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
- #define ZEPS 1.0e-10
+ FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
- #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);
+ int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */
+ double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
- #define GOLD 1.618034
+ long ipmx=0; /* Number of contributions */
- #define GLIMIT 100.0
+ double sw; /* Sum of weights */
- #define TINY 1.0e-20
+ char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
- static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
+ FILE *ficresilk;
- #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
+ FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
- #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
+ FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
+ FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
- #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
+ FILE *ficreseij;
- #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
+ char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ FILE *ficresstdeij;
- static double sqrarg;
+ char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
- #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
+ FILE *ficrescveij;
- #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}
+ char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
- int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
+ FILE  *ficresvij;
+ char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
- int imx;
+ FILE  *ficresvpl;
- int stepm=1;
+ char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
- /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
+ char title[MAXLINE];
+ char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
- int estepm;
+ char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
- /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
+ char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
- int m,nb;
+ int  outcmd=0;
- long *num;
- int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
+ char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
- double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
- double **pmmij, ***probs;
+ char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
- double *ageexmed,*agecens;
+ char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
- double dateintmean=0;
+ char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
- double *weight;
- int **s; /* Status */
+ char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
- double *agedc, **covar, idx;
- int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
+ /* struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time; */
- double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
+ /* struct timezone tzp; */
+ /* extern int gettimeofday(); */
- double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
+ struct tm tml, *gmtime(), *localtime();
- double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
+ extern time_t time();
- /**************** split *************************/
- static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
+ struct tm start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
- {
+ time_t  rstart_time, rend_time, rcurr_time, rlast_time, rforecast_time; /* raw time */
-   /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
+ struct tm tm;
-      the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
-   */
+ char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
-   char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
-   int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
+ char *endptr;
+ long lval;
-   l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
+ double dval;
-   if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
-   ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
+ #define NR_END 1
-   if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
+ #define FREE_ARG char*
-     strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
+ #define FTOL 1.0e-10
-     /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
-       printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
+ #define NRANSI
-     /* get current working directory */
+ #define ITMAX 200
-     /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
-     if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
+ #define TOL 2.0e-4
-       return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
-     }
+ #define CGOLD 0.3819660
-     /* got dirc from getcwd*/
+ #define ZEPS 1.0e-10
-     printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
+ #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);
-   } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
-     ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
+ #define GOLD 1.618034
-     l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
+ #define GLIMIT 100.0
-     if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
+ #define TINY 1.0e-20
-     strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
-     strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
+ static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
-     dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
+ #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
-     printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
+ #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
-   }
-   /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
+ #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
-   l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
+ #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
-   if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
+ /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/myutils_8h-source.html */
-     dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
+ #define mytinydouble 1.0e-16
-     dirc[l1+1] = 0;
+ /* #define DEQUAL(a,b) (fabs((a)-(b))<mytinydouble) */
-     printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
+ /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/mynrutils_8h-source.html */
-   }
+ /* static double dsqrarg; */
-   ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
+ /* #define DSQR(a) (DEQUAL((dsqrarg=(a)),0.0) ? 0.0 : dsqrarg*dsqrarg) */
-   if (ss >0){
+ static double sqrarg;
-     ss++;
+ #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
-     strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
+ #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}
-     l1= strlen( name);
+ int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
-     l2= strlen(ss)+1;
-     strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
+ int imx;
-     finame[l1-l2]= 0;
+ int stepm=1;
-   }
+ /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
-   return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
+ int estepm;
- }
+ /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
+ int m,nb;
- /******************************************/
+ long *num;
+ int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *cens;
- void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
+ int *ncodemax;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
- {
+                    covariate for which somebody answered excluding
-   int i;
+                    undefined. Usually 2: 0 and 1. */
-   int lg=0;
+ int *ncodemaxwundef;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
-   i=0;
+                              covariate for which somebody answered including
-   lg=strlen(t);
+                              undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
-   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
+ double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
-     (s[i] = t[i]);
+ double **pmmij, ***probs;
-     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
+ double *ageexmed,*agecens;
-   }
+ double dateintmean=0;
- }
+ double *weight;
- int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
+ int **s; /* Status */
- {
+ double *agedc;
-   int i,j=0;
+ double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
-   int lg=20;
+                   * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
-   i=0;
+                   * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*age; */
-   lg=strlen(s);
+ double  idx;
-   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
+ int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
-   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
+ int *Tage;
-   }
+ int *Ndum; /** Freq of modality (tricode */
-   return j;
+ int **codtab; /**< codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); */
- }
+ int **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
+ double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
- void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
- {
+ double ftol=FTOL; /**< Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
-   /* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before first occurence of char 'occ'
+ double ftolhess; /**< Tolerance for computing hessian */
-      and v starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
-      gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
+ /**************** split *************************/
-   int i,lg,j,p=0;
+ static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
-   i=0;
+ {
-   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
+   /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
-     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
+      the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
-   }
+   */
+   char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
-   lg=strlen(t);
+   int   l1=0, l2=0;                             /* length counters */
-   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
-     (u[j] = t[j]);
+   l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
-   }
+   if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
-      u[p]='\0';
+   ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
+   if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
-    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
+     strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
-     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
+     /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
-   }
+       printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
- }
+     /* get current working directory */
+     /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
- /********************** nrerror ********************/
+ #ifdef WIN32
+     if (_getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
- void nrerror(char error_text[])
+ #else
- {
+         if (getcwd(dirc, FILENAME_MAX) == NULL) {
-   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
+ #endif
-   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
+       return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
-   exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
+     }
- }
+     /* got dirc from getcwd*/
- /*********************** vector *******************/
+     printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
- double *vector(int nl, int nh)
+   } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
- {
+     ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
-   double *v;
+     l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
-   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+     if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
-   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
+     strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
-   return v-nl+NR_END;
+     strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
- }
+     dirc[l1-l2] = '\0';                 /* add zero */
+     printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
- /************************ free vector ******************/
+   }
- void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
+   /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
- {
+   l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
-   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+   if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
- }
+     dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
+     dirc[l1+1] = 0;
- /************************ivector *******************************/
+     printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
- int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
+   }
- {
+   ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
-   int *v;
+   if (ss >0){
-   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
+     ss++;
-   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
+     strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
-   return v-nl+NR_END;
+     l1= strlen( name);
- }
+     l2= strlen(ss)+1;
+     strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
- /******************free ivector **************************/
+     finame[l1-l2]= 0;
- void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
+   }
- {
-   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+   return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
  }
- /************************lvector *******************************/
- long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
+ /******************************************/
- {
-   long *v;
+ void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
-   v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
+ {
-   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
+   int i;
-   return v-nl+NR_END;
+   int lg=0;
- }
+   i=0;
+   lg=strlen(t);
- /******************free lvector **************************/
+   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
- void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
+     (s[i] = t[i]);
- {
+     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
-   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+   }
  }
- /******************* imatrix *******************************/
+ char *trimbb(char *out, char *in)
- int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+ { /* Trim multiple blanks in line but keeps first blanks if line starts with blanks */
-      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */
+   char *s;
- {
+   s=out;
-   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;
+   while (*in != '\0'){
-   int **m;
+     while( *in == ' ' && *(in+1) == ' '){ /* && *(in+1) != '\0'){*/
+       in++;
-   /* allocate pointers to rows */
+     }
-   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));
+     *out++ = *in++;
-   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+   }
-   m += NR_END;
+   *out='\0';
-   m -= nrl;
+   return s;
+ }
-   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */
+ /* char *substrchaine(char *out, char *in, char *chain) */
-   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
+ /* { */
-   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+ /*   /\* Substract chain 'chain' from 'in', return and output 'out' *\/ */
-   m[nrl] += NR_END;
+ /*   char *s, *t; */
-   m[nrl] -= ncl;
+ /*   t=in;s=out; */
+ /*   while ((*in != *chain) && (*in != '\0')){ */
-   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+ /*     *out++ = *in++; */
+ /*   } */
-   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */
-   return m;
+ /*   /\* *in matches *chain *\/ */
- }
+ /*   while ((*in++ == *chain++) && (*in != '\0')){ */
+ /*     printf("*in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
- /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
+ /*   } */
- void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
+ /*   in--; chain--; */
-       int **m;
+ /*   while ( (*in != '\0')){ */
-       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;
+ /*     printf("Bef *in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
-      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */
+ /*     *out++ = *in++; */
- {
+ /*     printf("Aft *in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
-   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+ /*   } */
-   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));
+ /*   *out='\0'; */
- }
+ /*   out=s; */
+ /*   return out; */
- /******************* matrix *******************************/
+ /* } */
- double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+ char *substrchaine(char *out, char *in, char *chain)
  {
-   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
+   /* Substract chain 'chain' from 'in', return and output 'out' */
-   double **m;
+   /* in="V1+V1*age+age*age+V2", chain="age*age" */
-   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
+   char *strloc;
-   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
-   m += NR_END;
+   strcpy (out, in);
-   m -= nrl;
+   strloc = strstr(out, chain); /* strloc points to out at age*age+V2 */
+   printf("Bef strloc=%s chain=%s out=%s \n", strloc, chain, out);
-   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+   if(strloc != NULL){
-   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+     /* will affect out */ /* strloc+strlenc(chain)=+V2 */ /* Will also work in Unicode */
-   m[nrl] += NR_END;
+     memmove(strloc,strloc+strlen(chain), strlen(strloc+strlen(chain))+1);
-   m[nrl] -= ncl;
+     /* strcpy (strloc, strloc +strlen(chain));*/
+   }
-   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+   printf("Aft strloc=%s chain=%s in=%s out=%s \n", strloc, chain, in, out);
-   return m;
+   return out;
-   /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1])
+ }
-    */
- }
+ char *cutl(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
- /*************************free matrix ************************/
+ {
- void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+   /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before FIRST occurence of char 'occ'
- {
+      and alocc starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
-   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+      gives blocc="abcdef" and alocc="ghi2j".
-   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
+      If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns blocc
- }
+   */
+   char *s, *t;
- /******************* ma3x *******************************/
+   t=in;s=in;
- double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
+   while ((*in != occ) && (*in != '\0')){
- {
+     *alocc++ = *in++;
-   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
+   }
-   double ***m;
+   if( *in == occ){
+     *(alocc)='\0';
-   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
+     s=++in;
-   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+   }
-   m += NR_END;
-   m -= nrl;
+   if (s == t) {/* occ not found */
+     *(alocc-(in-s))='\0';
-   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+     in=s;
-   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+   }
-   m[nrl] += NR_END;
+   while ( *in != '\0'){
-   m[nrl] -= ncl;
+     *blocc++ = *in++;
+   }
-   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+   *blocc='\0';
-   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+   return t;
-   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
+ }
-   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
+ char *cutv(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
-   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
+ {
-   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
+   /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before LAST occurence of char 'occ'
-     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
+      and alocc starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
+      gives blocc="abcdef2ghi" and alocc="j".
-   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
+      If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns alocc
-     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
+   */
-     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
+   char *s, *t;
-       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
+   t=in;s=in;
-   }
+   while (*in != '\0'){
-   return m;
+     while( *in == occ){
-   /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
+       *blocc++ = *in++;
-            &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
+       s=in;
-   */
+     }
- }
+     *blocc++ = *in++;
+   }
- /*************************free ma3x ************************/
+   if (s == t) /* occ not found */
- void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
+     *(blocc-(in-s))='\0';
- {
+   else
-   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
+     *(blocc-(in-s)-1)='\0';
-   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+   in=s;
-   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
+   while ( *in != '\0'){
- }
+     *alocc++ = *in++;
+   }
- /*************** function subdirf ***********/
- char *subdirf(char fileres[])
+   *alocc='\0';
- {
+   return s;
-   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+ }
-   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
-   strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
+ int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
-   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+ {
-   return tmpout;
+   int i,j=0;
- }
+   int lg=20;
+   i=0;
- /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
+   lg=strlen(s);
- char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
+   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
- {
+   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
+   }
-   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+   return j;
-   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
+ }
-   strcat(tmpout,"/");
-   strcat(tmpout,preop);
+ /* void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ) */
-   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+ /* { */
-   return tmpout;
+ /*   /\* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before last occurence of char 'occ'  */
- }
+ /*      and v starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2') */
+ /*      gives u="abcdef2ghi" and v="j" *\/ */
- /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
+ /*   int i,lg,j,p=0; */
- char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
+ /*   i=0; */
- {
+ /*   lg=strlen(t); */
+ /*   for(j=0; j<=lg-1; j++) { */
-   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+ /*     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1; */
-   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
+ /*   } */
-   strcat(tmpout,"/");
-   strcat(tmpout,preop);
+ /*   for(j=0; j<p; j++) { */
-   strcat(tmpout,preop2);
+ /*     (u[j] = t[j]); */
-   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+ /*   } */
-   return tmpout;
+ /*      u[p]='\0'; */
- }
+ /*    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) { */
- /***************** f1dim *************************/
+ /*     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]); */
- extern int ncom;
+ /*   } */
- extern double *pcom,*xicom;
+ /* } */
- extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);
+ #ifdef _WIN32
- double f1dim(double x)
+ char * strsep(char **pp, const char *delim)
  {
-   int j;
+   char *p, *q;
-   double f;
-   double *xt;
+   if ((p = *pp) == NULL)
+     return 0;
-   xt=vector(1,ncom);
+   if ((q = strpbrk (p, delim)) != NULL)
-   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];
+   {
-   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);
+     *pp = q + 1;
-   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);
+     *q = '\0';
-   return f;
+   }
- }
+   else
+     *pp = 0;
- /*****************brent *************************/
+   return p;
- double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)
+ }
- {
+ #endif
-   int iter;
-   double a,b,d,etemp;
+ /********************** nrerror ********************/
-   double fu,fv,fw,fx;
-   double ftemp;
+ void nrerror(char error_text[])
-   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;
+ {
-   double e=0.0;
+   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
+   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
-   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);
+   exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
-   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);
+ }
-   x=w=v=bx;
+ /*********************** vector *******************/
-   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);
+ double *vector(int nl, int nh)
-   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {
+ {
-     xm=0.5*(a+b);
+   double *v;
-     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);
+   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
+   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
-     printf(".");fflush(stdout);
+   return v-nl+NR_END;
-     fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
+ }
- #ifdef DEBUG
-     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
+ /************************ free vector ******************/
-     fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
+ void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
-     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
+ {
- #endif
+   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){
+ }
-       *xmin=x;
-       return fx;
+ /************************ivector *******************************/
-     }
+ int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
-     ftemp=fu;
+ {
-     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {
+   int *v;
-       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);
+   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
-       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);
+   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
-       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;
+   return v-nl+NR_END;
-       q=2.0*(q-r);
+ }
-       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;
-       q=fabs(q);
+ /******************free ivector **************************/
-       etemp=e;
+ void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
-       e=d;
+ {
-       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))
+   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
+ }
-       else {
-         d=p/q;
+ /************************lvector *******************************/
-         u=x+d;
+ long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
-         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)
+ {
-           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);
+   long *v;
-       }
+   v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
-     } else {
+   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
-       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
+   return v-nl+NR_END;
-     }
+ }
-     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));
-     fu=(*f)(u);
+ /******************free lvector **************************/
-     if (fu <= fx) {
+ void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
-       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;
+ {
-       SHFT(v,w,x,u)
+   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)
+ }
-         } else {
-           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;
+ /******************* imatrix *******************************/
-           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {
+ int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
-             v=w;
+      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */
-             w=u;
+ {
-             fv=fw;
+   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;
-             fw=fu;
+   int **m;
-           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {
-             v=u;
+   /* allocate pointers to rows */
-             fv=fu;
+   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));
-           }
+   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
-         }
+   m += NR_END;
-   }
+   m -= nrl;
-   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");
-   *xmin=x;
-   return fx;
+   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */
- }
+   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
+   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
- /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
+   m[nrl] += NR_END;
+   m[nrl] -= ncl;
- void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,
-             double (*func)(double))
+   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
- {
-   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
+   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */
-   double fu;
+   return m;
+ }
-   *fa=(*func)(*ax);
-   *fb=(*func)(*bx);
+ /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
-   if (*fb > *fa) {
+ void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
-     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)
+       int **m;
-       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)
+       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;
-       }
+      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */
-   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);
+ {
-   *fc=(*func)(*cx);
+   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
-   while (*fb > *fc) {
+   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));
-     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);
+ }
-     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);
-     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/
+ /******************* matrix *******************************/
-       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));
+ double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
-     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);
+ {
-     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {
+   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
-       fu=(*func)(u);
+   double **m;
-     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {
-       fu=(*func)(u);
+   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
-       if (fu < *fc) {
+   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
-         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))
+   m += NR_END;
-           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))
+   m -= nrl;
-           }
-     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {
+   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-       u=ulim;
+   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
-       fu=(*func)(u);
+   m[nrl] += NR_END;
-     } else {
+   m[nrl] -= ncl;
-       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);
-       fu=(*func)(u);
+   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
-     }
+   return m;
-     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)
+   /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) or &(m[1][0])
-       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)
+ m[i] = address of ith row of the table. &(m[i]) is its value which is another adress
-       }
+ that of m[i][0]. In order to get the value p m[i][0] but it is unitialized.
- }
+    */
+ }
- /*************** linmin ************************/
+ /*************************free matrix ************************/
- int ncom;
+ void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
- double *pcom,*xicom;
+ {
- double (*nrfunc)(double []);
+   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
- void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))
+ }
- {
-   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,
+ /******************* ma3x *******************************/
-                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);
+ double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
-   double f1dim(double x);
+ {
-   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,
+   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
-               double *fc, double (*func)(double));
+   double ***m;
-   int j;
-   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
+   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
-   double fx,fb,fa;
+   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+   m += NR_END;
-   ncom=n;
+   m -= nrl;
-   pcom=vector(1,n);
-   xicom=vector(1,n);
+   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-   nrfunc=func;
+   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
-   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+   m[nrl] += NR_END;
-     pcom[j]=p[j];
+   m[nrl] -= ncl;
-     xicom[j]=xi[j];
-   }
+   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
-   ax=0.0;
-   xx=1.0;
+   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);
+   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
-   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);
+   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
- #ifdef DEBUG
+   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
-   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
+   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
-   fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
+     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
- #endif
-   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
-     xi[j] *= xmin;
+     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
-     p[j] += xi[j];
+     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
-   }
+       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
-   free_vector(xicom,1,n);
+   }
-   free_vector(pcom,1,n);
+   return m;
- }
+   /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
+            &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
- char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
+   */
- {
+ }
-   long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
-   days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
+ /*************************free ma3x ************************/
-   sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
+ void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
-   hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
+ {
-   sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
+   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
-   minutes = (sec_left) /60;
+   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
-   sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
+   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
-   sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);
+ }
-   return ascdiff;
- }
+ /*************** function subdirf ***********/
+ char *subdirf(char fileres[])
- /*************** powell ************************/
+ {
- void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,
+   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
-             double (*func)(double []))
+   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
- {
+   strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
-   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,
+   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
-               double (*func)(double []));
+   return tmpout;
-   int i,ibig,j;
+ }
-   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
-   double fp,fptt;
+ /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
-   double *xits;
+ char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
-   int niterf, itmp;
+ {
-   pt=vector(1,n);
+   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
-   ptt=vector(1,n);
+   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
-   xit=vector(1,n);
+   strcat(tmpout,"/");
-   xits=vector(1,n);
+   strcat(tmpout,preop);
-   *fret=(*func)(p);
+   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
-   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];
+   return tmpout;
-   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {
+ }
-     fp=(*fret);
-     ibig=0;
+ /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
-     del=0.0;
+ char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
-     last_time=curr_time;
+ {
-     (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
-     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
+   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
-     fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec); fflush(ficlog);
+   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
- /*     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec); */
+   strcat(tmpout,"/");
-    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
+   strcat(tmpout,preop);
-       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
+   strcat(tmpout,preop2);
-       fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
+   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
-       fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
+   return tmpout;
-     }
+ }
-     printf("\n");
-     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+ char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
-     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
+ {
-     if(*iter <=3){
+   long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
-       tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
+   days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
-       strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tm));
+   sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
- /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
+   hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
-       forecast_time=curr_time;
+   sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
-       itmp = strlen(strcurr);
+   minutes = (sec_left) /60;
-       if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
+   sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
-         strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
+   sprintf(ascdiff,"%ld day(s) %ld hour(s) %ld minute(s) %ld second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);
-       printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
+   return ascdiff;
-       fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
+ }
-       for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
-         forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
+ /***************** f1dim *************************/
-         tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
+ extern int ncom;
- /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
+ extern double *pcom,*xicom;
-         strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
+ extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);
-         itmp = strlen(strfor);
-         if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
+ double f1dim(double x)
-         strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
+ {
-         printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
+   int j;
-         fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
+   double f;
-       }
+   double *xt;
-     }
-     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
+   xt=vector(1,ncom);
-       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];
+   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];
-       fptt=(*fret);
+   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);
- #ifdef DEBUG
+   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);
-       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
+   return f;
-       fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
+ }
- #endif
-       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+ /*****************brent *************************/
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+ double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)
-       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
+ {
-       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {
+   /* Given a function f, and given a bracketing triplet of abscissas ax, bx, cx (such that bx is
-         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));
+    * between ax and cx, and f(bx) is less than both f(ax) and f(cx) ), this routine isolates
-         ibig=i;
+    * the minimum to a fractional precision of about tol using Brent’s method. The abscissa of
-       }
+    * the minimum is returned as xmin, and the minimum function value is returned as brent , the
- #ifdef DEBUG
+    * returned function value.
-       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
+   */
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
+   int iter;
-       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+   double a,b,d,etemp;
-         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
+   double fu=0,fv,fw,fx;
-         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
+   double ftemp=0.;
-         fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
+   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;
-       }
+   double e=0.0;
-       for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
+   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);
-         fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
+   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);
-       }
+   x=w=v=bx;
-       printf("\n");
+   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {
- #endif
+     xm=0.5*(a+b);
-     }
+     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);
-     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
+     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
- #ifdef DEBUG
+     printf(".");fflush(stdout);
-       int k[2],l;
+     fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
-       k[0]=1;
+ #ifdef DEBUGBRENT
-       k[1]=-1;
+     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
-       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
+     fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
+     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
-       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ #endif
-         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
+     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){
-         fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
+       *xmin=x;
-       }
+       return fx;
-       printf("\n");
+     }
-       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+     ftemp=fu;
-       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
+     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {
-         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);
-           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
+       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);
-           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
+       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;
-           fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
+       q=2.0*(q-r);
-         }
+       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;
-         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
+       q=fabs(q);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
+       etemp=e;
-       }
+       e=d;
- #endif
+       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))
+         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
+       else {
-       free_vector(xit,1,n);
+         d=p/q;
-       free_vector(xits,1,n);
+         u=x+d;
-       free_vector(ptt,1,n);
+         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)
-       free_vector(pt,1,n);
+           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);
-       return;
+       }
-     }
+     } else {
-     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");
+       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
-     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+     }
-       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];
+     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));
-       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];
+     fu=(*f)(u);
-       pt[j]=p[j];
+     if (fu <= fx) {
-     }
+       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;
-     fptt=(*func)(ptt);
+       SHFT(v,w,x,u)
-     if (fptt < fp) {
+       SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)
-       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);
+     } else {
-       if (t < 0.0) {
+       if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;
-         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
+       if (fu <= fw || w == x) {
-         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+         v=w;
-           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];
+         w=u;
-           xi[j][n]=xit[j];
+         fv=fw;
-         }
+         fw=fu;
- #ifdef DEBUG
+       } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {
-         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
+         v=u;
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
+         fv=fu;
-         for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
+       }
-           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
+     }
-           fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
+   }
-         }
+   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");
-         printf("\n");
+   *xmin=x;
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+   return fx;
- #endif
+ }
-       }
-     }
+ /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
-   }
- }
+ void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,
+             double (*func)(double))
- /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
+ { /* Given a function func , and given distinct initial points ax and bx , this routine searches in
+ the downhill direction (defined by the function as evaluated at the initial points) and returns
- double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
+ new points ax , bx , cx that bracket a minimum of the function. Also returned are the function
- {
+ values at the three points, fa, fb , and fc such that fa > fb and fb < fc.
-   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
+    */
-      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
+   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
+   double fu;
-   int i, ii,j,k;
-   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
+   double scale=10.;
-   double **matprod2();
+   int iterscale=0;
-   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
-   double **newm;
+   *fa=(*func)(*ax); /*  xta[j]=pcom[j]+(*ax)*xicom[j]; fa=f(xta[j])*/
-   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
+   *fb=(*func)(*bx); /*  xtb[j]=pcom[j]+(*bx)*xicom[j]; fb=f(xtb[j]) */
-   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+   /* while(*fb != *fb){ /\* *ax should be ok, reducing distance to *ax *\/ */
-       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+   /*   printf("Warning mnbrak *fb = %lf, *bx=%lf *ax=%lf *fa==%lf iter=%d\n",*fb, *bx, *ax, *fa, iterscale++); */
-     }
+   /*   *bx = *ax - (*ax - *bx)/scale; */
+   /*   *fb=(*func)(*bx);  /\*  xtb[j]=pcom[j]+(*bx)*xicom[j]; fb=f(xtb[j]) *\/ */
-    cov[1]=1.;
+   /* } */
-  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+   if (*fb > *fa) {
-   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
+     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)
-     newm=savm;
+     SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)
-     /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+   }
-      cov[2]=agefin;
+   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);
+   *fc=(*func)(*cx);
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
+   printf("mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
-         /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
+   fprintf(ficlog,"mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
-       }
+ #endif
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+   while (*fb > *fc) { /* Declining a,b,c with fa> fb > fc */
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);
-         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);
+     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/
-       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
+       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); /* Minimum abscissa of a parabolic estimated from (a,fa), (b,fb) and (c,fc). */
-       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
+     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); /* Maximum abscissa where function should be evaluated */
-       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
+     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { /* if u_p is between b and c */
-     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
+       fu=(*func)(u);
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-     savm=oldm;
+       /* f(x)=A(x-u)**2+f(u) */
-     oldm=newm;
+       double A, fparabu;
-     maxmax=0.;
+       A= (*fb - *fa)/(*bx-*ax)/(*bx+*ax-2*u);
-     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
+       fparabu= *fa - A*(*ax-u)*(*ax-u);
-       min=1.;
+       printf("mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
-       max=0.;
+       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
+       /* And thus,it can be that fu > *fc even if fparabu < *fc */
-         sumnew=0;
+       /* mnbrak (*ax=7.666299858533, *fa=299039.693133272231), (*bx=8.595447774979, *fb=298976.598289369489),
-         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
+         (*cx=10.098840694817, *fc=298946.631474258087),  (*u=9.852501168332, fu=298948.773013752128, fparabu=298945.434711494134) */
-         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
+       /* In that case, there is no bracket in the output! Routine is wrong with many consequences.*/
-         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
+ #endif
-         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
+ #ifdef MNBRAKORIGINAL
-       }
+ #else
-       maxmin=max-min;
+ /*       if (fu > *fc) { */
-       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
+ /* #ifdef DEBUG */
-     }
+ /*       printf("mnbrak4  fu > fc \n"); */
-     if(maxmax < ftolpl){
+ /*       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak4 fu > fc\n"); */
-       return prlim;
+ /* #endif */
-     }
+ /*      /\* SHFT(u,*cx,*cx,u) /\\* ie a=c, c=u and u=c; in that case, next SHFT(a,b,c,u) will give a=b=b, b=c=u, c=u=c and *\\/  *\/ */
-   }
+ /*      /\* SHFT(*fa,*fc,fu,*fc) /\\* (b, u, c) is a bracket while test fb > fc will be fu > fc  will exit *\\/ *\/ */
- }
+ /*      dum=u; /\* Shifting c and u *\/ */
+ /*      u = *cx; */
- /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
+ /*      *cx = dum; */
+ /*      dum = fu; */
- double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
+ /*      fu = *fc; */
- {
+ /*      *fc =dum; */
-   double s1, s2;
+ /*       } else { /\* end *\/ */
-   /*double t34;*/
+ /* #ifdef DEBUG */
-   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
+ /*       printf("mnbrak3  fu < fc \n"); */
+ /*       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak3 fu < fc\n"); */
-     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+ /* #endif */
-       for(j=1; j<i;j++){
+ /*      dum=u; /\* Shifting c and u *\/ */
-         for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+ /*      u = *cx; */
-           /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
+ /*      *cx = dum; */
-           s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+ /*      dum = fu; */
- /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
+ /*      fu = *fc; */
-         }
+ /*      *fc =dum; */
-         ps[i][j]=s2;
+ /*       } */
- /*      printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-       }
+       printf("mnbrak34  fu < or >= fc \n");
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak34 fu < fc\n");
-         for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+ #endif
-           s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+       dum=u; /* Shifting c and u */
- /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2); */
+       u = *cx;
-         }
+       *cx = dum;
-         ps[i][j]=s2;
+       dum = fu;
-       }
+       fu = *fc;
-     }
+       *fc =dum;
-     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
+ #endif
+     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { /* u is after c but before ulim */
-     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-       s1=0;
+       printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim\n");
-       for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim\n");
-         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
+ #endif
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+       fu=(*func)(u);
-         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
+       if (fu < *fc) {
-       ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-       for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+       printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim AND fu < fc\n");
-         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim AND fu <fc \n");
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+ #endif
-         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))
-       /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
+         SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))
-     } /* end i */
+       }
+     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { /* u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c) */
-     for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+       printf("mnbrak2  u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
-         ps[ii][jj]=0;
+       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
-         ps[ii][ii]=1;
+ #endif
-       }
+       u=ulim;
-     }
+       fu=(*func)(u);
+     } else { /* u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum) */
+ #ifdef DEBUG
- /*        for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
+       printf("mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
- /*       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
+       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
- /*         printf("ddd %lf ",ps[ii][jj]); */
+ #endif
- /*       } */
+       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);
- /*       printf("\n "); */
+       fu=(*func)(u);
- /*        } */
+     } /* end tests */
- /*        printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]); */
+     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)
-        /*
+     SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)
-       for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-       goto end;*/
+       printf("mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
-     return ps;
+       fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
- }
+ #endif
+   } /* end while; ie return (a, b, c, fa, fb, fc) such that a < b < c with f(a) > f(b) and fb < f(c) */
- /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
+ }
- double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
+ /*************** linmin ************************/
- {
+ /* Given an n -dimensional point p[1..n] and an n -dimensional direction xi[1..n] , moves and
-   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
+ resets p to where the function func(p) takes on a minimum along the direction xi from p ,
-      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
+ and replaces xi by the actual vector displacement that p was moved. Also returns as fret
-   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized
+ the value of func at the returned location p . This is actually all accomplished by calling the
-      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
+ routines mnbrak and brent .*/
-      a pointer to pointers identical to out */
+ int ncom;
-   long i, j, k;
+ double *pcom,*xicom;
-   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
+ double (*nrfunc)(double []);
-     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
-       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
+ void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))
-         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
+ {
+   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,
-   return out;
+                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);
- }
+   double f1dim(double x);
+   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,
+               double *fc, double (*func)(double));
- /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
+   int j;
+   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
- double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
+   double fx,fb,fa;
- {
-   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+   double scale=10., axs, xxs, xxss; /* Scale added for infinity */
-      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
-      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
+   ncom=n;
-      nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
+   pcom=vector(1,n);
-      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step
+   xicom=vector(1,n);
-      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big
+   nrfunc=func;
-      for the memory).
+   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be
+     pcom[j]=p[j];
-      included manually here.
+     xicom[j]=xi[j];
+   }
-      */
+   /* axs=0.0; */
-   int i, j, d, h, k;
+   /* xxss=1; /\* 1 and using scale *\/ */
-   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
+   xxs=1;
-   double **newm;
+   /* do{ */
+     ax=0.;
-   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
+     xx= xxs;
-   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+     mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);  /* Outputs: xtx[j]=pcom[j]+(*xx)*xicom[j]; fx=f(xtx[j]) */
-     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+     /* brackets with inputs ax=0 and xx=1, but points, pcom=p, and directions values, xicom=xi, are sent via f1dim(x) */
-       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     /* xt[x,j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]  f(ax) = f(xt(a,j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 0 * xi(j)) and  f(xx) = f(xt(x, j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 1 * xi(j))   */
-       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     /* Outputs: fa=f(p(j)) and fx=f(p(j) + xxs * xi(j) ) and f(bx)= f(p(j)+ bx* xi(j)) */
-     }
+     /* Given input ax=axs and xx=xxs, xx might be too far from ax to get a finite f(xx) */
-   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+     /* Searches on line, outputs (ax, xx, bx) such that fx < min(fa and fb) */
-   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
+     /* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom, order may change. Scale is [0:xxs*xi[j]] et non plus  [0:xi[j]]*/
-     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
+   /*   if (fx != fx){ */
-       newm=savm;
+   /*    xxs=xxs/scale; /\* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 *\/ */
-       /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+   /*    printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n",  axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx); */
-       cov[1]=1.;
+   /*   } */
-       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
+   /* }while(fx != fx); */
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
-         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+   printf("\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n",  ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+ #endif
-         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); /* Giving a bracketting triplet (ax, xx, bx), find a minimum, xmin, according to f1dim, *fret(xmin),*/
+   /* fa = f(p[j] + ax * xi[j]), fx = f(p[j] + xx * xi[j]), fb = f(p[j] + bx * xi[j]) */
+   /* fmin = f(p[j] + xmin * xi[j]) */
-       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
+   /* P+lambda n in that direction (lambdamin), with TOL between abscisses */
-       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
+   /* f1dim(xmin): for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+xmin*xicom[j]; */
-       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
-       savm=oldm;
+   fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
-       oldm=newm;
+ #endif
-     }
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
+   printf("linmin end ");
-       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+ #endif
-         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
+   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
+     /* printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]); */
-          */
+     xi[j] *= xmin; /* xi rescaled by xmin: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
-       }
+     /* if(xxs <1.0) */
-   } /* end h */
+     /*   printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs ); */
-   return po;
+     p[j] += xi[j]; /* Parameters values are updated accordingly */
- }
+   }
+   /* printf("\n"); */
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
- /*************** log-likelihood *************/
+   printf("Comparing last *frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, *fret, (*func)(p));
- double func( double *x)
+   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- {
+     printf(" xi[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xi[j],j,p[j]);
-   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
+     if(j % ncovmodel == 0)
-   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
+       printf("\n");
-   double **out;
+   }
-   double sw; /* Sum of weights */
+ #endif
-   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
+   free_vector(xicom,1,n);
-   int s1, s2;
+   free_vector(pcom,1,n);
-   double bbh, survp;
+ }
-   long ipmx;
-   /*extern weight */
-   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
+ /*************** powell ************************/
-   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
+ /*
-   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)
+ Minimization of a function func of n variables. Input consists of an initial starting point
-     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
+ p[1..n] ; an initial matrix xi[1..n][1..n] , whose columns contain the initial set of di-
-   */
+ rections (usually the n unit vectors); and ftol , the fractional tolerance in the function value
-   cov[1]=1.;
+ such that failure to decrease by more than this amount on one iteration signals doneness. On
+ output, p is set to the best point found, xi is the then-current direction set, fret is the returned
-   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
+ function value at p , and iter is the number of iterations taken. The routine linmin is used.
+  */
-   if(mle==1){
+ void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,
-     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+             double (*func)(double []))
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+ {
-       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,
-         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+               double (*func)(double []));
-           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+   int i,ibig,j;
-             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
-             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+   double directest;
-           }
+   double fp,fptt;
-         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+   double *xits;
-           newm=savm;
+   int niterf, itmp;
-           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
-           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+   pt=vector(1,n);
-             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+   ptt=vector(1,n);
-           }
+   xit=vector(1,n);
-           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+   xits=vector(1,n);
-,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+   *fret=(*func)(p);
-           savm=oldm;
+   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];
-           oldm=newm;
+     rcurr_time = time(NULL);
-         } /* end mult */
+   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {
+     fp=(*fret); /* From former iteration or initial value */
-         /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
+     ibig=0;
-         /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
+     del=0.0;
-          * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay
+     rlast_time=rcurr_time;
-          * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to
+     /* (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
-          * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
+     rcurr_time = time(NULL);
-          * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
+     curr_time = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
-          * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
+     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time);fflush(stdout);
-          * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret,rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time); fflush(ficlog);
-          * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
+ /*     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec); */
-          * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
+     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
-          * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
+       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
-          * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.
+       fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
-          */
+       fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
-         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+     }
-         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+     printf("\n");
-         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-         /* bias bh is positive if real duration
+     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
-          * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
+     if(*iter <=3){
-          */
+       tml = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
-         /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
+       strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tml));
-         if( s2 > nlstate){
+       rforecast_time=rcurr_time;
-           /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known
+       itmp = strlen(strcurr);
-              then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to
+       if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
-              die between last step unit time and current  step unit time,
+         strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
-              which is also equal to probability to die before dh
+       printf("\nConsidering the time needed for the last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
-              minus probability to die before dh-stepm .
+       fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
-              In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
+       for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
-         as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
+         rforecast_time=rcurr_time+(niterf-*iter)*(rcurr_time-rlast_time);
-         health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
+         forecast_time = *localtime(&rforecast_time);
-         and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
+         strcpy(strfor,asctime(&forecast_time));
-         to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
+         itmp = strlen(strfor);
-         (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
+         if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
-         introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
+         strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
-         the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
+         printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
-         contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
+         fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
-         stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
+       }
-         and month of death but the probability to survive from last
+     }
-         interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
+     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { /* For each direction i */
-         probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
+       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; /* Directions stored from previous iteration with previous scales */
-         Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
+       fptt=(*fret);
-         mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-         which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
+           printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
-         lower mortality.
+           fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
-           */
+ #endif
-           lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+           printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* Point p[n]. xit[n] has been loaded for direction i as input.*/
-         } else if  (s2==-2) {
+                                     /* Outputs are fret(new point p) p is updated and xit rescaled */
-           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
+       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { /* We are keeping the max gain on each of the n directions */
-             survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
+         /* because that direction will be replaced unless the gain del is small */
-           /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
+         /* in comparison with the 'probable' gain, mu^2, with the last average direction. */
-           lli= log(survp);
+         /* Unless the n directions are conjugate some gain in the determinant may be obtained */
-         }
+         /* with the new direction. */
+         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));
-         else if  (s2==-4) {
+         ibig=i;
-           for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
+       }
-             survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-           lli= log(survp);
+       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
-         }
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
+       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-         else if  (s2==-5) {
+         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
-           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)
+         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
-             survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
+         fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
-           lli= log(survp);
+       }
-         }
+       for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+         printf(" p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
-         else{
+         fprintf(ficlog," p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
-           lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
+       }
-           /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
+       printf("\n");
-         }
+       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-         /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
+ #endif
-         /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
+     } /* end loop on each direction i */
-         /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
+     /* Convergence test will use last linmin estimation (fret) and compare former iteration (fp) */
-         ipmx +=1;
+     /* But p and xit have been updated at the end of linmin, *fret corresponds to new p, xit  */
-         sw += weight[i];
+     /* New value of last point Pn is not computed, P(n-1) */
-         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) { /* Did we reach enough precision? */
-       } /* end of wave */
+       /* We could compare with a chi^2. chisquare(0.95,ddl=1)=3.84 */
-     } /* end of individual */
+       /* By adding age*age in a model, the new -2LL should be lower and the difference follows a */
-   }  else if(mle==2){
+       /* a chisquare statistics with 1 degree. To be significant at the 95% level, it should have */
-     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+       /* decreased of more than 3.84  */
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+       /* By adding age*age and V1*age the gain (-2LL) should be more than 5.99 (ddl=2) */
-       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+       /* By using V1+V2+V3, the gain should be  7.82, compared with basic 1+age. */
-         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+       /* By adding 10 parameters more the gain should be 18.31 */
-           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       /* Starting the program with initial values given by a former maximization will simply change */
-             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       /* the scales of the directions and the directions, because the are reset to canonical directions */
-           }
+       /* Thus the first calls to linmin will give new points and better maximizations until fp-(*fret) is */
-         for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
+       /* under the tolerance value. If the tolerance is very small 1.e-9, it could last long.  */
-           newm=savm;
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+       int k[2],l;
-           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+       k[0]=1;
-             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+       k[1]=-1;
-           }
+       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
-           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
-,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-           savm=oldm;
+         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
-           oldm=newm;
+         fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
-         } /* end mult */
+       }
+       printf("\n");
-         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
-         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
+         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
+           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
-         ipmx +=1;
+           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
-         sw += weight[i];
+           fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
-         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+         }
-       } /* end of wave */
+         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
-     } /* end of individual */
+         fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
-   }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
+       }
-     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+ #endif
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+       free_vector(xit,1,n);
-           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+       free_vector(xits,1,n);
-             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       free_vector(ptt,1,n);
-             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       free_vector(pt,1,n);
-           }
+       return;
-         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+     } /* enough precision */
-           newm=savm;
+     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");
-           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { /* Computes the extrapolated point P_0 + 2 (P_n-P_0) */
-           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];
-             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];
-           }
+       pt[j]=p[j];
-           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+     }
-,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+     fptt=(*func)(ptt); /* f_3 */
-           savm=oldm;
+ #ifdef POWELLF1F3
-           oldm=newm;
+ #else
-         } /* end mult */
+     if (fptt < fp) { /* If extrapolated point is better, decide if we keep that new direction or not */
+ #endif
-         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+       /* (x1 f1=fp), (x2 f2=*fret), (x3 f3=fptt), (xm fm) */
-         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+       /* From x1 (P0) distance of x2 is at h and x3 is 2h */
-         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
+       /* Let f"(x2) be the 2nd derivative equal everywhere.  */
-         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
+       /* Then the parabolic through (x1,f1), (x2,f2) and (x3,f3) */
-         ipmx +=1;
+       /* will reach at f3 = fm + h^2/2 f"m  ; f" = (f1 -2f2 +f3 ) / h**2 */
-         sw += weight[i];
+       /* Conditional for using this new direction is that mu^2 = (f1-2f2+f3)^2 /2 < del */
-         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+       /* t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); */
-       } /* end of wave */
+ #ifdef NRCORIGINAL
-     } /* end of individual */
+       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)- del*SQR(fp-fptt); /* Original Numerical Recipes in C*/
-   }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
+ #else
-     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del); /* Intel compiler doesn't work on one line; bug reported */
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+       t= t- del*SQR(fp-fptt);
-       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+ #endif
-         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+       directest = fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt - 2.0 * del; /* If del was big enough we change it for a new direction */
-           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       printf("t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf  directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
-             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
-           }
+       printf("t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
-         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+              (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
-           newm=savm;
+       fprintf(ficlog,"t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
-           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+              (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
-           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+       printf("tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
-             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+       fprintf(ficlog, "tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
-           }
+ #endif
+ #ifdef POWELLORIGINAL
-           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+       if (t < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
-,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+ #else
-           savm=oldm;
+       if (directest*t < 0.0) { /* Contradiction between both tests */
-           oldm=newm;
+         printf("directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt,del);
-         } /* end mult */
+         printf("f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt, del);
-         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+         fprintf(ficlog,"f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
-         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+       }
-         if( s2 > nlstate){
+       if (directest < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
-           lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+ #endif
-         }else{
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
-           lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
+         printf("Before linmin in direction P%d-P0\n",n);
-         }
+         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-         ipmx +=1;
+           printf("Before xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
-         sw += weight[i];
+           if(j % ncovmodel == 0)
-         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+             printf("\n");
- /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
+         }
-       } /* end of wave */
+ #endif
-     } /* end of individual */
+         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* computes minimum on the extrapolated direction: changes p and rescales xit.*/
-   }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
-     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+           printf("After xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
-       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+           if(j % ncovmodel == 0)
-         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+             printf("\n");
-           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+         }
-             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ #endif
-             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-           }
+           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; /* Replace direction with biggest decrease by last direction n */
-         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+           xi[j][n]=xit[j];      /* and this nth direction by the by the average p_0 p_n */
-           newm=savm;
+         }
-           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+         printf("Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
-           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
-             cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
-           }
+ #ifdef DEBUG
+         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
-           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
-,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+         for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
-           savm=oldm;
+           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
-           oldm=newm;
+           fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
-         } /* end mult */
+         }
+         printf("\n");
-         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+ #endif
-         lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
+       } /* end of t or directest negative */
-         ipmx +=1;
+ #ifdef POWELLF1F3
-         sw += weight[i];
+ #else
-         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+     } /* end if (fptt < fp)  */
-         /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
+ #endif
-       } /* end of wave */
+   } /* loop iteration */
-     } /* end of individual */
+ }
-   } /* End of if */
-   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
+ /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
-   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
-   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
+ double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
-   return -l;
+ {
- }
+   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
+      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
- /*************** log-likelihood *************/
- double funcone( double *x)
+   int i, ii,j,k;
- {
+   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
-   /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
+   /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
-   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
-   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
+   double **newm;
-   double **out;
+   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
-   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
-   double llt;
+   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-   int s1, s2;
+     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-   double bbh, survp;
+       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-   /*extern weight */
+     }
-   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
-   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
+   cov[1]=1.;
-   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)
-     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
+   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
-   */
+   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
-   cov[1]=1.;
+     newm=savm;
+     /* Covariates have to be included here again */
-   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
+     cov[2]=agefin;
+     if(nagesqr==1)
-   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+       cov[3]= agefin*agefin;;
-     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
-     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+       cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])];
-       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+       /* printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]); */
-         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+     }
-           oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     /*wrong? for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
-           savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]*cov[2];
-         }
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless */
-       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+       cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])];
-         newm=savm;
-         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+     /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
-         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+     /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
-           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+     /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
-         }
+     /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
-         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+     /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
-,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
-         savm=oldm;
-         oldm=newm;
+     savm=oldm;
-       } /* end mult */
+     oldm=newm;
+     maxmax=0.;
-       s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
-       s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+       min=1.;
-       bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
+       max=0.;
-       /* bias is positive if real duration
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
-        * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
+         sumnew=0;
-        */
+         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
-       if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
+         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
-         lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+         /*printf(" prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d \n", i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin);*/
-       } else if  (s2==-2) {
+         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
-         for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
+         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
-           survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
+       }
-         lli= log(survp);
+       maxmin=max-min;
-       }else if (mle==1){
+       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
-         lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
+     } /* j loop */
-       } else if(mle==2){
+     if(maxmax < ftolpl){
-         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
+       return prlim;
-       } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
+     }
-         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
+   } /* age loop */
-       } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
+   return prlim; /* should not reach here */
-         lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
+ }
-       } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
-         lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
+ /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
-       } /* End of if */
-       ipmx +=1;
+ double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
-       sw += weight[i];
+ {
-       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+   /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
- /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
+      computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
-       if(globpr){
+      model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
-         fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
+      lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
-  %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
+      and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
-                 num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
+      ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
-*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
+      j<i nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel
-         for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
+      j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
-           llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
+      Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
-           fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
+      sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
-         }
+      Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
-         fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
+      the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
-       }
+   */
-     } /* end of wave */
+   double s1, lnpijopii;
-   } /* end of individual */
+   /*double t34;*/
-   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
+   int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
-   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
-   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
+     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-   if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
+       for(j=1; j<i;j++){
-     gipmx=ipmx;
+         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-     gsw=sw;
+           /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
-   }
+           lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
-   return -l;
+ /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
- }
+         }
+         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+ /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
- /*************** function likelione ***********/
+       }
- void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
+       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- {
+         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-   /* This routine should help understanding what is done with
+           /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
-      the selection of individuals/waves and
+           lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
-      to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
+ /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
-      Plotting could be done.
+         }
-    */
+         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
-   int k;
+       }
+     }
-   if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
-     strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk");
+     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-     strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
+       s1=0;
-     if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
+       for(j=1; j<i; j++){
-       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
+         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
+         /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-     }
+       }
-     fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
+       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-     fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
+         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
-     /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
+         /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-     for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++)
+       }
-       fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
+       /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
-     fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
+       ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
-   }
+       /* Computing other pijs */
+       for(j=1; j<i; j++)
-   *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
+         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-   if(*globpri !=0){
+       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
-     fclose(ficresilk);
+         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
+       /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
-     fflush(fichtm);
+     } /* end i */
-   }
-   return;
+     for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
- }
+       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+         ps[ii][jj]=0;
+         ps[ii][ii]=1;
- /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
+       }
+     }
- void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
- {
-   int i,j, iter;
+     /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
-   double **xi;
+     /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
-   double fret;
+     /*  printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
-   double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
+     /*   } */
-   /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
+     /*   printf("\n "); */
-   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+     /* } */
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+     /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
-     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
+     /*
-       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
-   printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+       goto end;*/
-   strcpy(filerespow,"pow");
+     return ps;
-   strcat(filerespow,fileres);
+ }
-   if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+ /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
-   }
+ double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,int nrl, int nrh, int ncl, int nch, int ncolol, int ncoloh, double **b)
-   fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
+ {
-   for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
-     for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
-       if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
+   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized
-   fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
+      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
+      a pointer to pointers identical to out */
-   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
+   int i, j, k;
+   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
-   free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
+     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++){
-   fclose(ficrespow);
+       out[i][k]=0.;
-   printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
+       for(j=ncl; j<=nch; j++)
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
+         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
-   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
+     }
+   return out;
  }
- /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
- void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
+ /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
- {
-   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
+ double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
-   double **hess;
+ {
-   int i, j,jk;
+   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
-   int *indx;
+      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
+      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
-   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
+      nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
-   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
+      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step
-   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
+      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big
-   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
+      for the memory).
-   double gompertz(double p[]);
+      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be
-   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+      included manually here.
-   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
+      */
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
+   int i, j, d, h, k;
-     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
-     fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+   double **newm;
+   double agexact;
-      hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
+   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
-     /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
+   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
-         printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
+     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-   }
+       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
+     }
-     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
+   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
-       if (j>i) {
+   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
-         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
+     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
-         fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
+       newm=savm;
-         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
+       /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+       cov[1]=1.;
-         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
+       agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
-         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
+       cov[2]=agexact;
-       }
+       if(nagesqr==1)
-     }
+         cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
-   }
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++)
-   printf("\n");
+         cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])];
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
+         /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
-   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
+         cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2];
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
+         cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])];
-   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-   x=vector(1,npar);
+       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
-   indx=ivector(1,npar);
+       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
-     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
+                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+       savm=oldm;
+       oldm=newm;
-   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+     }
-     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
-     x[j]=1;
+       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
+         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
-     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
+         /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
-       matcov[i][j]=x[i];
+       }
-     }
+     /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
-   }
+   } /* end h */
+ /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
-   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
+   return po;
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
+ }
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
-     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+ #ifdef NLOPT
-       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+   double  myfunc(unsigned n, const double *p1, double *grad, void *pd){
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+   double fret;
-     }
+   double *xt;
-     printf("\n");
+   int j;
-     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+   myfunc_data *d2 = (myfunc_data *) pd;
-   }
+ /* xt = (p1-1); */
+   xt=vector(1,n);
-   /* Recompute Inverse */
+   for (j=1;j<=n;j++)   xt[j]=p1[j-1]; /* xt[1]=p1[0] */
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
-     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
+   fret=(d2->function)(xt); /*  p xt[1]@8 is fine */
-   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+   /* fret=(*func)(xt); /\*  p xt[1]@8 is fine *\/ */
+   printf("Function = %.12lf ",fret);
-   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
+   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) printf(" %d %.8lf", j, xt[j]);
+   printf("\n");
-   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+  free_vector(xt,1,n);
-     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
+   return fret;
-     x[j]=1;
+ }
-     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
+ #endif
-     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-       y[i][j]=x[i];
+ /*************** log-likelihood *************/
-       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+ double func( double *x)
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+ {
-     }
+   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
-     printf("\n");
+   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
-     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+   double **out;
-   }
+   double sw; /* Sum of weights */
-   */
+   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
+   int s1, s2;
-   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
+   double bbh, survp;
-   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
+   long ipmx;
-   free_vector(x,1,npar);
+   double agexact;
-   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
+   /*extern weight */
-   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
+   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
+   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
+   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)
- }
+     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
+   */
- /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
- double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
+   ++countcallfunc;
- {
-   int i;
+   cov[1]=1.;
-   int l=1, lmax=20;
-   double k1,k2;
+   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
-   double p2[NPARMAX+1];
-   double res;
+   if(mle==1){
-   double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
+     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
-   double fx;
+       /* Computes the values of the ncovmodel covariates of the model
-   int k=0,kmax=10;
+          depending if the covariates are fixed or variying (age dependent) and stores them in cov[]
-   double l1;
+          Then computes with function pmij which return a matrix p[i][j] giving the elementary probability
+          to be observed in j being in i according to the model.
-   fx=func(x);
+        */
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++){ /* Simple and product covariates without age* products */
-   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
+           cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-     l1=pow(10,l);
+       }
-     delts=delt;
+       /* In model V2+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2 Tvar[1] is V2, Tvar[2=V1*V4]
-     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
+          is 6, Tvar[3=age*V3] should not be computed because of age Tvar[4=V3*V2]
-       delt = delta*(l1*k);
+          has been calculated etc */
-       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
+       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-       k1=func(p2)-fx;
+         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
+           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-       k2=func(p2)-fx;
+             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
+             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
+           }
+         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
- #ifdef DEBUG
+           newm=savm;
-       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
+           agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
+           cov[2]=agexact;
- #endif
+           if(nagesqr==1)
-       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
+             cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
-       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
+           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
-         k=kmax;
+             cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact; /* Tage[kk] gives the data-covariate associated with age */
-       }
+           }
-       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
+           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
-         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
+,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-       }
+           savm=oldm;
-       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){
+           oldm=newm;
-         delts=delt;
+         } /* end mult */
-       }
-     }
+         /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
-   }
+         /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
-   delti[theta]=delts;
+          * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay
-   return res;
+          * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to
+          * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
- }
+          * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
+          * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
- double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
+          * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
- {
+          * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
-   int i;
+          * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
-   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
+          * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
-   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
+          * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.
-   double p2[NPARMAX+1];
+          */
-   int k;
+         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
-   fx=func(x);
+         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
-   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
+         /* bias bh is positive if real duration
-     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
+          * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+          */
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+         /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
-     k1=func(p2)-fx;
+         if( s2 > nlstate){
+           /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+              then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+              die between last step unit time and current  step unit time,
-     k2=func(p2)-fx;
+              which is also equal to probability to die before dh
+              minus probability to die before dh-stepm .
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+              In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+         as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
-     k3=func(p2)-fx;
+         health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
+         and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+         to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+         (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
-     k4=func(p2)-fx;
+         introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
-     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
+         the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
- #ifdef DEBUG
+         contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
-     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+         stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
-     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+         and month of death but the probability to survive from last
- #endif
+         interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
-   }
+         probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
-   return res;
+         Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
- }
+         mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
+         which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
- /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
+         lower mortality.
- void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)
+           */
- {
+         /* If, at the beginning of the maximization mostly, the
-   int i,imax,j,k;
+            cumulative probability or probability to be dead is
-   double big,dum,sum,temp;
+            constant (ie = 1) over time d, the difference is equal to
-   double *vv;
+.  out[s1][3] = savm[s1][3]: probability, being at state
+            s1 at precedent wave, to be dead a month before current
-   vv=vector(1,n);
+            wave is equal to probability, being at state s1 at
-   *d=1.0;
+            precedent wave, to be dead at mont of the current
-   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
+            wave. Then the observed probability (that this person died)
-     big=0.0;
+            is null according to current estimated parameter. In fact,
-     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)
+            it should be very low but not zero otherwise the log go to
-       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;
+            infinity.
-     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");
+         */
-     vv[i]=1.0/big;
+ /* #ifdef INFINITYORIGINAL */
-   }
+ /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
-   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ /* #else */
-     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {
+ /*        if ((out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]) < mytinydouble)  */
-       sum=a[i][j];
+ /*          lli=log(mytinydouble); */
-       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
+ /*        else */
-       a[i][j]=sum;
+ /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
-     }
+ /* #endif */
-     big=0.0;
+             lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {
-       sum=a[i][j];
+         } else if  (s2==-2) {
-       for (k=1;k<j;k++)
+           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
-         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
+             survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
-       a[i][j]=sum;
+           /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
-       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {
+           lli= log(survp);
-         big=dum;
+         }
-         imax=i;
-       }
+         else if  (s2==-4) {
-     }
+           for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
-     if (j != imax) {
+             survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
-       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {
+           lli= log(survp);
-         dum=a[imax][k];
+         }
-         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];
-         a[j][k]=dum;
+         else if  (s2==-5) {
-       }
+           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)
-       *d = -(*d);
+             survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
-       vv[imax]=vv[j];
+           lli= log(survp);
-     }
+         }
-     indx[j]=imax;
-     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;
+         else{
-     if (j != n) {
+           lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
-       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);
+           /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
-       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;
+         }
-     }
+         /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
-   }
+         /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
-   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
+         /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
- ;
+         ipmx +=1;
- }
+         sw += weight[i];
+         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
- void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])
+         /* if (lli < log(mytinydouble)){ */
- {
+         /*   printf("Close to inf lli = %.10lf <  %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[%d][i]=%d s1=%d s2=%d\n", lli,log(mytinydouble), i, mi,mw[mi][i], s[mw[mi][i]][i], s1,s2); */
-   int i,ii=0,ip,j;
+         /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Close to inf lli = %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[mw[mi][i]][i]=%d\n", lli, i, mi,s[mw[mi][i]][i]); */
-   double sum;
+         /* } */
+       } /* end of wave */
-   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
+     } /* end of individual */
-     ip=indx[i];
+   }  else if(mle==2){
-     sum=b[ip];
+     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
-     b[ip]=b[i];
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-     if (ii)
+       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
+         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-     else if (sum) ii=i;
+           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-     b[i]=sum;
+             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-   }
+             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {
+           }
-     sum=b[i];
+         for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
-     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
+           newm=savm;
-     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];
+           agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
-   }
+           cov[2]=agexact;
- }
+           if(nagesqr==1)
+             cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
- void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
+           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
- {
+             cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
-   fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#%s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,fullversion,strstart);
+           }
- }
+           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
- /************ Frequencies ********************/
+           savm=oldm;
- void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
+           oldm=newm;
- {  /* Some frequencies */
+         } /* end mult */
-   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
+         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
-   int first;
+         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
-   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
+         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
-   double *pp, **prop;
+         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
-   double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
+         ipmx +=1;
-   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
+         sw += weight[i];
+         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
-   pp=vector(1,nlstate);
+       } /* end of wave */
-   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+     } /* end of individual */
-   strcpy(fileresp,"p");
+   }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
-   strcat(fileresp,fileres);
+     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
-   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-     exit(0);
+           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-   }
+             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-   freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-   j1=0;
+           }
+         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
-   j=cptcoveff;
+           newm=savm;
-   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+           agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+           cov[2]=agexact;
-   first=1;
+           if(nagesqr==1)
+             cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
-   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
+           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
-     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+             cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
-       j1++;
+           }
-       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
+           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
-         scanf("%d", i);*/
+,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-       for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
+           savm=oldm;
-         for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+           oldm=newm;
-           for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+         } /* end mult */
-             freq[i][jk][m]=0;
+         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
-     for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
+         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
-       for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
-         prop[i][m]=0;
+         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
+         ipmx +=1;
-       dateintsum=0;
+         sw += weight[i];
-       k2cpt=0;
+         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
-       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+       } /* end of wave */
-         bool=1;
+     } /* end of individual */
-         if  (cptcovn>0) {
+   }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
-           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
+     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
-             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-               bool=0;
+       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-         }
+         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-         if (bool==1){
+           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
+             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
+             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-             /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
+           }
-               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
+         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
-               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
+           newm=savm;
-               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+           agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
-               if (m<lastpass) {
+           cov[2]=agexact;
-                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+           if(nagesqr==1)
-                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
+             cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
-               }
+           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+             cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
-               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
+           }
-                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
-                 k2cpt++;
+           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
-               }
+,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-               /*}*/
+           savm=oldm;
-           }
+           oldm=newm;
-         }
+         } /* end mult */
-       }
+         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
-       /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
+         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
-       pstamp(ficresp);
+         if( s2 > nlstate){
-       if  (cptcovn>0) {
+           lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-         fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
+         }else{
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+           lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
-         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
+         }
-       }
+         ipmx +=1;
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+         sw += weight[i];
-         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
+         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
-       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
+ /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
+       } /* end of wave */
-       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
+     } /* end of individual */
-         if(i==iagemax+3){
+   }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
-           fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
+     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
-         }else{
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-           if(first==1){
+       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-             first=0;
+         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-             printf("See log file for details...\n");
+           for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-           }
+             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
+             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-         }
+           }
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+         for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
-           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
+           newm=savm;
-             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
+           agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
-         }
+           cov[2]=agexact;
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+           if(nagesqr==1)
-           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
+             cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
-             pos += freq[jk][m][i];
+           for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
-           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
+             cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
-             if(first==1){
+           }
-             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
-             }
+           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
+,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-           }else{
+           savm=oldm;
-             if(first==1)
+           oldm=newm;
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+         } /* end mult */
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-           }
+         s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
-         }
+         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+         lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+         ipmx +=1;
-           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+         sw += weight[i];
-             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
+         ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
-         }
+         /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
-         for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+       } /* end of wave */
-           pos += pp[jk];
+     } /* end of individual */
-           posprop += prop[jk][i];
+   } /* End of if */
-         }
+   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
-           if(pos>=1.e-5){
+   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
-             if(first==1)
+   return -l;
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+ }
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
-           }else{
+ /*************** log-likelihood *************/
-             if(first==1)
+ double funcone( double *x)
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+ {
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+   /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
-           }
+   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
-           if( i <= iagemax){
+   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
-             if(pos>=1.e-5){
+   double **out;
-               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
+   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
-               /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
+   double llt;
-               /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
+   int s1, s2;
-             }
+   double bbh, survp;
-             else
+   double agexact;
-               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
+   /*extern weight */
-           }
+   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
-         }
+   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
+   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)
-         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
-           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+   */
-             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
+   cov[1]=1.;
-             if(first==1)
-               printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
+   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
-               fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
-             }
+   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
-         if(i <= iagemax)
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
+     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-         if(first==1)
+       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-           printf("Others in log...\n");
+         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+           oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-       }
+           savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-     }
+         }
-   }
+       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
-   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;
+         newm=savm;
+         agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
-   fclose(ficresp);
+         cov[2]=agexact;
-   free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
+         if(nagesqr==1)
-   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
+           cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
-   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
+         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
-   /* End of Freq */
+           cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
- }
+         }
- /************ Prevalence ********************/
+         /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
- void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
+         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
- {
+,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
+         /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, */
-      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
+         /*           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); */
-      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
+         savm=oldm;
-   */
+         oldm=newm;
+       } /* end mult */
-   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
-   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
+       s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
-   double *pp, **prop;
+       s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
-   double pos,posprop;
+       bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
-   double  y2; /* in fractional years */
+       /* bias is positive if real duration
-   int iagemin, iagemax;
+        * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
+        */
-   iagemin= (int) agemin;
+       if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
-   iagemax= (int) agemax;
+         lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-   /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
+       } else if  (s2==-2) {
-   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+         for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
-   /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
+           survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
-   j1=0;
+         lli= log(survp);
+       }else if (mle==1){
-   j=cptcoveff;
+         lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
-   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+       } else if(mle==2){
+         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
-   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
+       } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
-     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+         lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
-       j1++;
+       } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
+         lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
-       for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
+       } else{  /* mle=0 back to 1 */
-         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+         lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
-           prop[i][m]=0.0;
+         /*lli=log(out[s1][s2]); */ /* Original formula */
+       } /* End of if */
-       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
+       ipmx +=1;
-         bool=1;
+       sw += weight[i];
-         if  (cptcovn>0) {
+       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
-           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
+       /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
-             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])
+       if(globpr){
-               bool=0;
+         fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
-         }
+  %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
-         if (bool==1) {
+                 num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
-           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
+*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
-             y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
+         for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
-             if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
+           llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
-               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
+           fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
-               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
+         }
-               if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m);
+         fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
-               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) {
+       }
-                 /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
+     } /* end of wave */
-                 prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+   } /* end of individual */
-                 prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
+   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
-               }
+   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
-             }
+   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
-           } /* end selection of waves */
+   if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
-         }
+     gipmx=ipmx;
-       }
+     gsw=sw;
-       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
+   }
+   return -l;
-         for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) {
+ }
-           posprop += prop[jk][i];
-         }
+ /*************** function likelione ***********/
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+ void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
-           if( i <=  iagemax){
+ {
-             if(posprop>=1.e-5){
+   /* This routine should help understanding what is done with
-               probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
+      the selection of individuals/waves and
-             }
+      to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
-           }
+      Plotting could be done.
-         }/* end jk */
+    */
-       }/* end i */
+   int k;
-     } /* end i1 */
-   } /* end k1 */
+   if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
+     strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk");
-   /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
+     strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
-   /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
+     if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
-   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
+       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
- }  /* End of prevalence */
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
+     }
- /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
+     fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
+     fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
- void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
+     /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
- {
+     for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++)
-   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
+       fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
-      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
+     fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
-      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
+   }
-      dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
-      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
+   *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
-      */
+   if(*globpri !=0){
+     fclose(ficresilk);
-   int i, mi, m;
+     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
-   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
+     fflush(fichtm);
-      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
+   }
-   int first;
+   return;
-   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
+ }
-   double sum=0.;
-   first=0;
-   jmin=1e+5;
+ /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
-   jmax=-1;
-   jmean=0.;
+ void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
-   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+ {
-     mi=0;
+   int i,j, iter=0;
-     m=firstpass;
+   double **xi;
-     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
+   double fret;
-       if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
+   double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
-         mw[++mi][i]=m;
+   /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
-       if(m >=lastpass)
-         break;
+ #ifdef NLOPT
-       else
+   int creturn;
-         m++;
+   nlopt_opt opt;
-     }/* end while */
+   /* double lb[9] = { -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL }; /\* lower bounds *\/ */
-     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
+   double *lb;
-       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
+   double minf; /* the minimum objective value, upon return */
-       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
+   double * p1; /* Shifted parameters from 0 instead of 1 */
-          /* Only death is a correct wave */
+   myfunc_data dinst, *d = &dinst;
-       mw[mi][i]=m;
+ #endif
-     }
-     wav[i]=mi;
+   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-     if(mi==0){
+   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
-       nbwarn++;
+     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
-       if(first==0){
+       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-         printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
+   printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
-         first=1;
+   strcpy(filerespow,"pow");
-       }
+   strcat(filerespow,fileres);
-       if(first==1){
+   if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
+     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
-       }
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
-     } /* end mi==0 */
+   }
-   } /* End individuals */
+   fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
+   for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+     for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
-     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
+       if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
-       if (stepm <=0)
+   fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
-         dh[mi][i]=1;
+ #ifdef POWELL
-       else{
+   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
-         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
+ #endif
-           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
-             j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);
+ #ifdef NLOPT
-             if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
+ #ifdef NEWUOA
-             else if(j<0){
+   opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_NEWUOA,npar);
-               nberr++;
+ #else
-               printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
+   opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_BOBYQA,npar);
-               j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
+ #endif
-               printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
+   lb=vector(0,npar-1);
-               fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
+   for (i=0;i<npar;i++) lb[i]= -HUGE_VAL;
-               fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
+   nlopt_set_lower_bounds(opt, lb);
-             }
+   nlopt_set_initial_step1(opt, 0.1);
-             k=k+1;
-             if (j >= jmax){
+   p1= (p+1); /*  p *(p+1)@8 and p *(p1)@8 are equal p1[0]=p[1] */
-               jmax=j;
+   d->function = func;
-               ijmax=i;
+   printf(" Func %.12lf \n",myfunc(npar,p1,NULL,d));
-             }
+   nlopt_set_min_objective(opt, myfunc, d);
-             if (j <= jmin){
+   nlopt_set_xtol_rel(opt, ftol);
-               jmin=j;
+   if ((creturn=nlopt_optimize(opt, p1, &minf)) < 0) {
-               ijmin=i;
+     printf("nlopt failed! %d\n",creturn);
-             }
+   }
-             sum=sum+j;
+   else {
-             /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
+     printf("found minimum after %d evaluations (NLOPT=%d)\n", countcallfunc ,NLOPT);
-             /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
+     printf("found minimum at f(%g,%g) = %0.10g\n", p[0], p[1], minf);
-           }
+     iter=1; /* not equal */
-         }
+   }
-         else{
+   nlopt_destroy(opt);
-           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
+ #endif
- /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
+   free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
+   fclose(ficrespow);
-           k=k+1;
+   printf("#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
-           if (j >= jmax) {
+   fprintf(ficlog,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
-             jmax=j;
+   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
-             ijmax=i;
-           }
+ }
-           else if (j <= jmin){
-             jmin=j;
+ /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
-             ijmin=i;
+ void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
-           }
+ {
-           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
+   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
-           /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
+   double **hess;
-           if(j<0){
+   int i, j;
-             nberr++;
+   int *indx;
-             printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-             fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
+   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
-           }
+   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
-           sum=sum+j;
+   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
-         }
+   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
-         jk= j/stepm;
+   double gompertz(double p[]);
-         jl= j -jk*stepm;
+   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
-         if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
+   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
-           if(jl==0){
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
-             dh[mi][i]=jk;
+   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-             bh[mi][i]=0;
+     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
-           }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
-                   * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
-             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
+      hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
-             bh[mi][i]=ju;
-           }
+     /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
-         }else{
+         printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
-           if(jl <= -ju){
+   }
-             dh[mi][i]=jk;
-             bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
+   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
-                                  * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
+     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
-                                  */
+       if (j>i) {
-           }
+         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
-           else{
+         fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
-             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
+         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
-             bh[mi][i]=ju;
-           }
+         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
-           if(dh[mi][i]==0){
+         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
-             dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
+       }
-             bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
+     }
-             /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
+   }
-           }
+   printf("\n");
-         } /* end if mle */
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-       }
-     } /* end wave */
+   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
-   }
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
-   jmean=sum/k;
-   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
+   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
+   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-  }
+   x=vector(1,npar);
+   indx=ivector(1,npar);
- /*********** Tricode ****************************/
+   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
- void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
+     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
- {
+   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
-   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
+   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-   int cptcode=0;
+     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
-   cptcoveff=0;
+     x[j]=1;
+     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
-   for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
+     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
+       matcov[i][j]=x[i];
+     }
-   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
+   }
-     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum
-                                modality*/
+   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
-       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
-       Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
+   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
-       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
+     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable
+       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
-                                        Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
-                                        female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
+     }
-     }
+     printf("\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
+   }
-       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
-     }
+   /* Recompute Inverse */
+   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
-     ij=1;
+     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
-     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
+   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
-       for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
-         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
+   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
-           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
-           /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
+   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
-           ij++;
+     x[j]=1;
-         }
+     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
-         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;
+     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-       }
+       y[i][j]=x[i];
-     }
+       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
-   }
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+     }
-  for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
+     printf("\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {
+   }
-    /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
+   */
-    ij=Tvar[i];
-    Ndum[ij]++;
+   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
-  }
+   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
+   free_vector(x,1,npar);
-  ij=1;
+   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
-  for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
+   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
-    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
-      Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
-      ij++;
+ }
-    }
-  }
+ /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
+ double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
-  cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
+ {
- }
+   int i;
+   int l=1, lmax=20;
- /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
+   double k1,k2;
+   double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
- void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
+   double res;
+   double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
- {
+   double fx;
-   /* Health expectancies, no variances */
+   int k=0,kmax=10;
-   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2;
+   double l1;
-   double age, agelim, hf;
-   double ***p3mat;
+   fx=func(x);
-   double eip;
+   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
+   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum */
-   pstamp(ficreseij);
+     l1=pow(10,l);
-   fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
+     delts=delt;
-   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
+     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+       delt = delta*(l1*k);
-     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
-       fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
+       k1=func(p2)-fx;   /* Might be negative if too close to the theoretical maximum */
-     }
+       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
-     fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
+       k2=func(p2)-fx;
-   }
+       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
-   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
+       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
+ #ifdef DEBUGHESS
-   if(estepm < stepm){
+       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
-     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
-   }
+ #endif
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
+       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
-   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
+       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
-    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
+         k=kmax;
-    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
+       }
-    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear
+       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
-    * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
+         k=kmax; l=lmax*10;
-    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we
+       }
-    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
+       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){
-    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear
+         delts=delt;
-    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
+       }
-    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
+     }
+   }
-   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
+   delti[theta]=delts;
-   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
+   return res;
-      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
-      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
+ }
-      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
-      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
+ double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
-   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+ {
-      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
+   int i;
-      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
+   int l=1, lmax=20;
-      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
+   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
-      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
+   double p2[MAXPARM+1];
-   */
+   int k;
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
+   fx=func(x);
-   agelim=AGESUP;
+   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
-   /* If stepm=6 months */
+     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
-     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
-        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+     k1=func(p2)-fx;
- /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
-   nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm);
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
-   /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
-   /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
+     k2=func(p2)-fx;
-   nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
-   p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
-   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
+     k3=func(p2)-fx;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
-     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+     k4=func(p2)-fx;
-     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
+ #ifdef DEBUG
-     printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
+     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+ #endif
+   }
-     /* Computing expectancies */
+   return res;
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ }
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+ /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
-           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
+ void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)
+ {
-           /*if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+   int i,imax,j,k;
+   double big,dum,sum,temp;
-         }
+   double *vv;
-     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
+   vv=vector(1,n);
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+   *d=1.0;
-       eip=0;
+   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+     big=0.0;
-         eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
+     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)
-         fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
+       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;
-       }
+     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");
-       fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
+     vv[i]=1.0/big;
-     }
+   }
-     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
+   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {
-   }
+       sum=a[i][j];
-   free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
-   printf("\n");
+       a[i][j]=sum;
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+     }
+     big=0.0;
- }
+     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {
+       sum=a[i][j];
- void cvevsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
+       for (k=1;k<j;k++)
+         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];
- {
+       a[i][j]=sum;
-   /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
+       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {
-    to initial status i, ei. .
+         big=dum;
-   */
+         imax=i;
-   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
+       }
-   double age, agelim, hf;
+     }
-   double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
+     if (j != imax) {
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {
-   double *xp, *xm;
+         dum=a[imax][k];
-   double **gp, **gm;
+         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];
-   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
+         a[j][k]=dum;
-   int theta;
+       }
+       *d = -(*d);
-   double eip, vip;
+       vv[imax]=vv[j];
+     }
-   varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+     indx[j]=imax;
-   xp=vector(1,npar);
+     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;
-   xm=vector(1,npar);
+     if (j != n) {
-   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
+       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);
-   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;
+     }
-   pstamp(ficresstdeij);
+   }
-   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
+   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
-   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
+ ;
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+ }
-     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-       fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
+ void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])
-     fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
+ {
-   }
+   int i,ii=0,ip,j;
-   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
+   double sum;
-   pstamp(ficrescveij);
+   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
-   fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
+     ip=indx[i];
-   fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
+     sum=b[ip];
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+     b[ip]=b[i];
-     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+     if (ii)
-       cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
+       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
-       for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
+     else if (sum) ii=i;
-         for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
+     b[i]=sum;
-           cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
+   }
-           if(cptj2 <= cptj)
+   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {
-             fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
+     sum=b[i];
-         }
+     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];
-     }
+     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];
-   fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
+   }
+ }
-   if(estepm < stepm){
-     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+ void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
-   }
+ {
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
+   fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#IMaCh version %s, %s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,copyright, fullversion, strstart);
-   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
+ }
-    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
-    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
+ /************ Frequencies ********************/
-    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear
+ void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
-    * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
+ {  /* Some frequencies */
-    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we
-    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
+   int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
-    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear
+   int first;
-    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
+   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
-    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
+   double *pp, **prop;
+   double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
-   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
+   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
-      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
+   pp=vector(1,nlstate);
-      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
+   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
-      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
+   strcpy(fileresp,"p");
-      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
+   strcat(fileresp,fileres);
-   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
-      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
+     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
-      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
-      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
+     exit(0);
-      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
+   }
-   */
+   freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
+   j1=0;
-   /* If stepm=6 months */
+   j=cptcoveff;
-   /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
+   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-   agelim=AGESUP;
-   nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm);
+   first=1;
-   /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
-   /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
+   /* for(k1=1; k1<=j ; k1++){ */  /* Loop on covariates */
-   nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
+   /*  for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */ /* Now it is 2 */
+   /*    j1++; */
-   p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+   for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){
-   p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
-   gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+         scanf("%d", i);*/
-   trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
+       for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
-   gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+         for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
-   gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+           for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+             freq[i][jk][m]=0;
-   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
+       for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
-     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
+         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
-        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
+           prop[i][m]=0;
-     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+       dateintsum=0;
+       k2cpt=0;
-     /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
+       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
-     /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
+         bool=1;
-        decrease memory allocation */
+         if  (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
-     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){
+             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]){
-         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+                 /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
-         xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+               bool=0;
-       }
+               /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, j1=%d\n",
-       hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
+                 bool,i,z1, z1, Tvaraff[z1],i,covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i],j1,z1,codtabm(j1,z1),
-       hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
+                 j1,z1,nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)],j1);*/
+               /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtabm(7,3)=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+             }
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
+         }
-           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
-             gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+         if (bool==1){
-             gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
-           }
+             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
-         }
+             /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
-       }
+               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
+               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
-       for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
+               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+               if (m<lastpass) {
-           gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
+                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
-         }
+                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
-     }/* End theta */
+               }
+               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
-     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
+                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
+                 k2cpt++;
-         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+               }
-           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+               /*}*/
+           }
+         }
-      for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
+       } /* end i */
-       for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
-         varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
+       /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
+       pstamp(ficresp);
-      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
+       if  (cptcovn>0) {
-      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
+         fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
-      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
+         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
-         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+         fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable ");
-         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
+         fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n#");
-           for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
+       }
-             varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-       }
+         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
-     }
+       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
-     /* Computing expectancies */
+       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
-     hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);
+         if(i==iagemax+3){
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+           fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+         }else{
-         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+           if(first==1){
-           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
+             first=0;
+             printf("See log file for details...\n");
-           /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+           }
+           fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
          }
+         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
+           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
-       eip=0.;
+         }
-       vip=0.;
+         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
-         eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
+             pos += freq[jk][m][i];
-         for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
+           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
-           vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
+             if(first==1){
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
-       }
+             }
-       fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
-     }
+           }else{
-     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
+             if(first==1)
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-     fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+           }
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+         }
-         cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
-         for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
+         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-           for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
+           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
-             cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
+             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
-             if(cptj2 <= cptj)
+         }
-               fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
+         for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-           }
+           pos += pp[jk];
-       }
+           posprop += prop[jk][i];
-     fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
+         }
+         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-   }
+           if(pos>=1.e-5){
-   free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+             if(first==1)
-   free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
-   free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
-   free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
+           }else{
-   free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+             if(first==1)
-   free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-   printf("\n");
+             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+           }
+           if( i <= iagemax){
-   free_vector(xm,1,npar);
+             if(pos>=1.e-5){
-   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
+               /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
-   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
+               /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
-   free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+             }
- }
+             else
+               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
- /************ Variance ******************/
+           }
- void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
+         }
- {
-   /* Variance of health expectancies */
+         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
-   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
+           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
-   /* double **newm;*/
+             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+             if(first==1)
-   double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
+               printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
-   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
+               fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
-   int k, cptcode;
+             }
-   double *xp;
+         if(i <= iagemax)
-   double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
+           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
-   double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
+         if(first==1)
-   double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
+           printf("Others in log...\n");
-   double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
+         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-   double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
+       }
-   double ***p3mat;
+       /*}*/
-   double age,agelim, hf;
+   }
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;
-   int theta;
-   char digit[4];
+   fclose(ficresp);
-   char digitp[25];
+   free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
+   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
-   char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
+   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
+   /* End of Freq */
-   if(popbased==1){
+ }
-     if(mobilav!=0)
-       strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
+ /************ Prevalence ********************/
-     else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
+ void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
-   }
+ {
-   else
+   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
-     strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
+      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
+      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
+   */
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+   int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   double **prop;
-     }
+   double posprop;
-   }
+   double  y2; /* in fractional years */
+   int iagemin, iagemax;
-   strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev");
+   int first; /** to stop verbosity which is redirected to log file */
-   sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
-   /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
+   iagemin= (int) agemin;
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
+   iagemax= (int) agemax;
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
+   /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
+   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
-   if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
+   /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+   j1=0;
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
-   }
+   /*j=cptcoveff;*/
-   printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+   first=1;
-   pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
+   for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
+     /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
+       j1++;*/
-   for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
+       for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
-       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
+           prop[i][m]=0.0;
-   }
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
+         bool=1;
-   /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
+         if  (cptcovn>0) {
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
+           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
+             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)])
- /*   } */
+               bool=0;
-   varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+         }
-   pstamp(ficresvij);
+         if (bool==1) {
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
+           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
-   if(popbased==1)
+             y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1)");
+             if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
-   else
+               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
+               if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m);
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) {
-     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+                 /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
-       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
+                 prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+                 prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
+               }
-   xp=vector(1,npar);
+             }
-   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+           } /* end selection of waves */
-   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+         }
-   dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+       }
-   doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
+         for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) {
-   gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+           posprop += prop[jk][i];
-   gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+         }
-   gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+           if( i <=  iagemax){
-   if(estepm < stepm){
+             if(posprop>=1.e-5){
-     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+               probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
-   }
+             } else{
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
+               if(first==1){
-   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
+                 first=0;
-   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
+                 printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
-      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
+               }
-      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
+             }
-      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
+           }
-      and note for a fixed period like k years */
+         }/* end jk */
-   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+       }/* end i */
-      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
+     /*} *//* end i1 */
-      means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
+   } /* end j1 */
-      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
+   /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
-   */
+   /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
+   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
-   agelim = AGESUP;
+ }  /* End of prevalence */
-   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+ /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
-     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
-     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+ void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
-     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+ {
-     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
-     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
+      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
+      dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
-     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
+      */
-         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       }
+   int i, mi, m;
-       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
+   int first;
-       if (popbased==1) {
+   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
-         if(mobilav ==0){
+   double sum=0.;
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+   first=0;
-             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+   jmin=100000;
-         }else{ /* mobilav */
+   jmax=-1;
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+   jmean=0.;
-             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
-         }
+     mi=0;
-       }
+     m=firstpass;
+     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+       if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+         mw[++mi][i]=m;
-           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+       if(m >=lastpass)
-             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+         break;
-         }
+       else
-       }
+         m++;
-       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+     }/* end while */
-          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
-          as a weighted average of prlim.
+       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
-       */
+       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
-       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+          /* Only death is a correct wave */
-         for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+       mw[mi][i]=m;
-           gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+     }
-       }
-       /* end probability of death */
+     wav[i]=mi;
+     if(mi==0){
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
+       nbwarn++;
-         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+       if(first==0){
-       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+         printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+         first=1;
+       }
-       if (popbased==1) {
+       if(first==1){
-         if(mobilav ==0){
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       }
-             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+     } /* end mi==0 */
-         }else{ /* mobilav */
+   } /* End individuals */
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
-         }
+     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
-       }
+       if (stepm <=0)
+         dh[mi][i]=1;
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+       else{
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
-           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
-             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+             j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);
-         }
+             if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
-       }
+             else if(j<0){
-       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+               nberr++;
-          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+               printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-          as a weighted average of prlim.
+               j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
-       */
+               printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
-       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+               fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+               fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
-          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+             }
-       }
+             k=k+1;
-       /* end probability of death */
+             if (j >= jmax){
+               jmax=j;
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
+               ijmax=i;
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+             }
-           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
+             if (j <= jmin){
-         }
+               jmin=j;
+               ijmin=i;
-       for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
+             }
-         gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
+             sum=sum+j;
-       }
+             /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
+             /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
-     } /* End theta */
+           }
+         }
-     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
+         else{
+           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
-     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
+ /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+           k=k+1;
-           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+           if (j >= jmax) {
+             jmax=j;
-     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
+             ijmax=i;
-       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+           }
-         trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
+           else if (j <= jmin){
+             jmin=j;
+             ijmin=i;
-     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+           }
-     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
-       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+           /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
-         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
+           if(j<0){
+             nberr++;
-     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
+             printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
+             fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+           }
-         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
+           sum=sum+j;
-         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+         }
-           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+         jk= j/stepm;
-             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+         jl= j -jk*stepm;
-       }
+         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
-     }
+         if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
+           if(jl==0){
-     /* pptj */
+             dh[mi][i]=jk;
-     matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+             bh[mi][i]=0;
-     matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
+           }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
-     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+                   * to avoid the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
-       for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
-         varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
+             bh[mi][i]=ju;
-     /* end ppptj */
+           }
-     /*  x centered again */
+         }else{
-     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+           if(jl <= -ju){
-     prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+             dh[mi][i]=jk;
+             bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
-     if (popbased==1) {
+                                  * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
-       if(mobilav ==0){
+                                  */
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+           }
-           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+           else{
-       }else{ /* mobilav */
+             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+             bh[mi][i]=ju;
-           prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+           }
-       }
+           if(dh[mi][i]==0){
-     }
+             dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
+             bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
-     /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+             /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
-        computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+           }
-        as a weighted average of prlim.
+         } /* end if mle */
-     */
+       }
-     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+     } /* end wave */
-       for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
+   }
-         gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+   jmean=sum/k;
-     }
+   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
-     /* end probability of death */
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %d) Max=%d (%d) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
+  }
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
-     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+ /*********** Tricode ****************************/
-       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
+ void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx, int *Ndum)
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+ {
-         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
+   /**< Uses cptcovn+2*cptcovprod as the number of covariates */
-       }
+   /*      Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  find 'n' in Vn and stores in Tvar. If model=V2+V1 Tvar[1]=2 and Tvar[2]=1
-     }
+    * Boring subroutine which should only output nbcode[Tvar[j]][k]
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+    * Tvar[5] in V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is 2 (V2)
+    * nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]=
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
+   */
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+   int ij=1, k=0, j=0, i=0, maxncov=NCOVMAX;
-         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
+   int modmaxcovj=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
-       }
+   int cptcode=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+   int modmincovj=0; /* Modality min of covariates j */
-     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+   cptcoveff=0;
-     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+   for (k=1; k <= maxncov; k++) ncodemax[k]=0; /* Horrible constant again replaced by NCOVMAX */
-   } /* End age */
-   free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+   /* Loop on covariates without age and products */
-   free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovs); j++) { /* From model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4 keeps V1 + V3 = 2 only */
-   free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     for (k=-1; k < maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
-   free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Loop on individuals: reads the data file to get the maximum value of the
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
+                                modality of this covariate Vj*/
-   /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
+       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij=0 or 1 or -1. Value of the covariate Tvar[j] for individual i
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
+                                     * If product of Vn*Vm, still boolean *:
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+                                     * If it was coded 1, 2, 3, 4 should be splitted into 3 boolean variables
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+                                     * 1 => 0 0 0, 2 => 0 0 1, 3 => 0 1 1, 4=1 0 0   */
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+       /* Finds for covariate j, n=Tvar[j] of Vn . ij is the
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+                                       modality of the nth covariate of individual i. */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+       if (ij > modmaxcovj)
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+         modmaxcovj=ij;
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+       else if (ij < modmincovj)
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
+         modmincovj=ij;
-   /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
+       if ((ij < -1) && (ij > NCOVMAX)){
- */
+         printf( "Error: minimal is less than -1 or maximal is bigger than %d. Exiting. \n", NCOVMAX );
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
+         exit(1);
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
+       }else
+       Ndum[ij]++; /*counts and stores the occurence of this modality 0, 1, -1*/
-   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+       /*  If coded 1, 2, 3 , counts the number of 1 Ndum[1], number of 2, Ndum[2], etc */
-   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+       /* getting the maximum value of the modality of the covariate
-   free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+          (should be 0 or 1 now) Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is coded 0 and
-   free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+          female is 1, then modmaxcovj=1.*/
-   free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     } /* end for loop on individuals i */
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     printf(" Minimal and maximal values of %d th covariate V%d: min=%d max=%d \n", j, Tvar[j], modmincovj, modmaxcovj);
-   fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
+     fprintf(ficlog," Minimal and maximal values of %d th covariate V%d: min=%d max=%d \n", j, Tvar[j], modmincovj, modmaxcovj);
-   fflush(ficgp);
+     cptcode=modmaxcovj;
-   fflush(fichtm);
+     /* Ndum[0] = frequency of 0 for model-covariate j, Ndum[1] frequency of 1 etc. */
- }  /* end varevsij */
+    /*for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {*/
+     for (k=modmincovj;  k<=modmaxcovj; k++) { /* k=-1 ? 0 and 1*//* For each value k of the modality of model-cov j */
- /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
+       printf("Frequencies of covariates %d ie V%d with value %d: %d\n", j, Tvar[j], k, Ndum[k]);
- void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
+       fprintf(ficlog, "Frequencies of covariates %d ie V%d with value %d: %d\n", j, Tvar[j], k, Ndum[k]);
- {
+       if( Ndum[k] != 0 ){ /* Counts if nobody answered modality k ie empty modality, we skip it and reorder */
-   /* Variance of prevalence limit */
+         if( k != -1){
-   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
+           ncodemax[j]++;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
-   double **newm;
+                              covariate for which somebody answered excluding
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+                              undefined. Usually 2: 0 and 1. */
-   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
+         }
-   int k, cptcode;
+         ncodemaxwundef[j]++; /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
-   double *xp;
+                              covariate for which somebody answered including
-   double *gp, *gm;
+                              undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
-   double **gradg, **trgradg;
+       }
-   double age,agelim;
+       /* In fact  ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables only) but it could be more for
-   int theta;
+          historical reasons: 3 if coded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and Ndum[2]=0 */
+     } /* Ndum[-1] number of undefined modalities */
-   pstamp(ficresvpl);
-   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
+     /* j is a covariate, n=Tvar[j] of Vn; Fills nbcode */
-   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
+     /* For covariate j, modalities could be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+        If Ndum[1]=0, Ndum[2]=0, Ndum[3]= 635, Ndum[4]=0, Ndum[5]=0, Ndum[6]=27, Ndum[7]=125;
-       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
+        modmincovj=3; modmaxcovj = 7;
-   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
+        There are only 3 modalities non empty 3, 6, 7 (or 2 if 27 is too few) : ncodemax[j]=3;
+        which will be coded 0, 1, 2 which in binary on 2=3-1 digits are 0=00 1=01, 2=10;
-   xp=vector(1,npar);
+        defining two dummy variables: variables V1_1 and V1_2.
-   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+        nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
-   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+        nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]=0;
+        nbcode[Tvar[j]][2]=1;
-   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+        nbcode[Tvar[j]][3]=2;
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+        To be continued (not working yet).
-   agelim = AGESUP;
+     */
-   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+     ij=0; /* ij is similar to i but can jump over null modalities */
-     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+     for (i=modmincovj; i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i= 1 to 2 for dichotomous, or from 1 to 3 or from -1 or 0 to 1 currently*/
-     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
+         if (Ndum[i] == 0) { /* If nobody responded to this modality k */
-     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
+           break;
-     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+         }
-     gp=vector(1,nlstate);
+         ij++;
-     gm=vector(1,nlstate);
+         nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=i;  /* stores the original value of modality i in an array nbcode, ij modality from 1 to last non-nul modality.*/
+         cptcode = ij; /* New max modality for covar j */
-     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+     } /* end of loop on modality i=-1 to 1 or more */
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
-         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+     /*   for (k=0; k<= cptcode; k++) { /\* k=-1 ? k=0 to 1 *\//\* Could be 1 to 4 *\//\* cptcode=modmaxcovj *\/ */
-       }
+     /*  /\*recode from 0 *\/ */
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+     /*                               k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex  */
-       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+     /*                               then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
-         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
+     /*                            But if some modality were not used, it is recoded from 0 to a newer modmaxcovj=cptcode *\/ */
+     /*  } */
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
+     /*  /\* cptcode = ij; *\/ /\* New max modality for covar j *\/ */
-         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+     /*  if (ij > ncodemax[j]) { */
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+     /*    printf( " Error ij=%d > ncodemax[%d]=%d\n", ij, j, ncodemax[j]);  */
-       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+     /*    fprintf(ficlog, " Error ij=%d > ncodemax[%d]=%d\n", ij, j, ncodemax[j]); */
-         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
+     /*    break; */
+     /*  } */
-       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+     /*   }  /\* end of loop on modality k *\/ */
-         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
+   } /* end of loop on model-covariate j. nbcode[Tvarj][1]=0 and nbcode[Tvarj][2]=1 sets the value of covariate j*/
-     } /* End theta */
+  for (k=-1; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
-     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2-nagesqr; i++) { /* -2, cste and age and eventually age*age */
-     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+    /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
-       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+    ij=Tvar[i]; /* Tvar might be -1 if status was unknown */
-         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+    Ndum[ij]++; /* Might be supersed V1 + V1*age */
+  }
-     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
+  ij=0;
-     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+  for (i=0; i<=  maxncov-1; i++) { /* modmaxcovj is unknown here. Only Ndum[2(V2),3(age*V3), 5(V3*V2) 6(V1*V4) */
-     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+    /*printf("Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
-     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
-       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
+      ij++;
+      /*printf("diff Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
-     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
+      Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing (unclear) */
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    }else{
-       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
+        /* Tvaraff[ij]=0; */
-     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
+    }
-     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
+  }
-     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
+  /* ij--; */
-     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+  cptcoveff=ij; /*Number of total covariates*/
-     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   } /* End age */
+ }
-   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+ /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+ void evsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
- }
+ {
- /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
+   /* Health expectancies, no variances */
- void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
+   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm;
- {
+   int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
-   int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
+   double age, agelim, hf;
-   int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
+   double ***p3mat;
-   int k=0,l, cptcode;
+   double eip;
-   int first=1, first1;
-   double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
+   pstamp(ficreseij);
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+   fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
-   double *xp;
+   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
-   double *gp, *gm;
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-   double **gradg, **trgradg;
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-   double **mu;
+       fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
-   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
+     }
-   double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
+     fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
-   int theta;
+   }
-   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
+   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
-   char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
+   if(estepm < stepm){
-   double ***varpij;
+     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+   }
-   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");
+   else  hstepm=estepm;
-   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
-   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear
-   }
+    * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
-   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");
+    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we
-   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
+    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
-   if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
+    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
-   }
-   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");
+   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
-   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
+   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
-   if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
+      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
-   }
+      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
-   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
-   printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-   printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
-   fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+   */
-   pstamp(ficresprob);
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
-   fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
-   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
+   agelim=AGESUP;
-   pstamp(ficresprobcov);
+   /* If stepm=6 months */
-   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
+     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
-   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
+        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
-   pstamp(ficresprobcor);
-   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
+ /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
-   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
+   nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
+   /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
+   /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+   nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
-     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+   p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
-       fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
-       fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+     nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
-     }
+     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
-  /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
+     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
-   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
+     nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
-   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
-  */
+     /* If stepm=6 months */
-  xp=vector(1,npar);
+     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
-   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+        in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
-   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-   mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
+     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepma,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);
-   varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
-   first=1;
+     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
+     printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
+     /* Computing expectancies */
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-   file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
+         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
- and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
+           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
-  They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
+           /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
- It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
- would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
+         }
- standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
-  Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
+     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
-  and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
- To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
+       eip=0;
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-   cov[1]=1;
+         eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
-   tj=cptcoveff;
+         fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
-   if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+       }
-   j1=0;
+       fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
-   for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
+     }
-     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){
+     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
-       j1++;
-       if  (cptcovn>0) {
+   }
-         fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");
+   free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+   printf("\n");
-         fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+ }
-         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
+ void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
-         fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+ {
-         fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
+   /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
+    to initial status i, ei. .
+   */
-         fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable ");
+   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+   int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
-         fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+   double age, agelim, hf;
+   double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
-         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");
+   double **dnewm,**doldm;
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+   double *xp, *xm;
-         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");
+   double **gp, **gm;
-       }
+   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
+   int theta;
-       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
-         cov[2]=age;
+   double eip, vip;
-         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
-           cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
+   varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         }
+   xp=vector(1,npar);
-         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+   xm=vector(1,npar);
-         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
-           cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+   pstamp(ficresstdeij);
-         trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
-         gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
-         gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+       fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
-           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+     fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
-             xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
+   }
+   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
-           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+   pstamp(ficrescveij);
-           k=0;
+   fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
-           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
+   fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
-             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-               k=k+1;
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-               gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+       cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
-             }
+       for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
-           }
+         for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
+           cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
-           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+           if(cptj2 <= cptj)
-             xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
+             fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
+         }
-           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+     }
-           k=0;
+   fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
-           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
-             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+   if(estepm < stepm){
-               k=k+1;
+     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
-               gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+   }
-             }
+   else  hstepm=estepm;
-           }
+   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
+    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
-           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
+    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
-             gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];
+    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear
-         }
+    * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
+    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we
-         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
-           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear
-             trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
+    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
-         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
+   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
-         free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
-         free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
-         free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
-         free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
+      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
-         pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
-         k=0;
+      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
-         for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
+      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
-             k=k+1;
+   */
-             mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
-           }
-         }
+   /* If stepm=6 months */
-         for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
+   /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
-           for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+   agelim=AGESUP;
-             varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
+   nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm);
+   /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
-         /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
+   /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
-           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
+   nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
-           printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+   p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-           }*/
+   p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+   gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-         fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+   trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
-         fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+   gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-         fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+   gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
+   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
-           fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
+     nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
-         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
+     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
-           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
-           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+     nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
-         }
-         i=0;
+     /* If stepm=6 months */
-         for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
+     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
-           for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){
+        in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
-             i=i++;
-             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
+     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
-             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
-             for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
+     /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
-               fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
+     /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
-               fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
+        decrease memory allocation */
-             }
+     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-           }
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){
-         }/* end of loop for state */
+         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       } /* end of loop for age */
+         xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+       }
-       /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
+       hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
-       /*
+       hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
+       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
-         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
+           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
-         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
+             gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
+             gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
+           }
-       */
+         }
+       }
-       /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
-       first1=1;
+       for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
-       for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
+         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
-         for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){
+           gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
-           if(l2==k2) continue;
+         }
-           j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
+     }/* End theta */
-           for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
-             for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){
-               if(l1==k1) continue;
+     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
-               i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
-               if(i<=j) continue;
+         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-               for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
+           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-                 if ((int)age %5==0){
-                   v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
-                   v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+      for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
-                   cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+       for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
-                   mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
+         varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
-                   mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
-                   c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
+      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
-                   /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
+      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
-                   lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
-                   lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
-                   /* Eigen vectors */
+         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-                   v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
+         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
-                   /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
+         for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
-                   v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
+           for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
-                   v12=-v21;
+             varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
-                   v22=v11;
+       }
-                   tnalp=v21/v11;
+     }
-                   if(first1==1){
-                     first1=0;
+     /* Computing expectancies */
-                     printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+     hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);
-                   }
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-                   fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-                   /*printf(fignu*/
+         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
-                   /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
+           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
-                   /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
-                   if(first==1){
+           /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
-                     first=0;
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
+         }
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
+     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-  :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
+       eip=0.;
- %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
+       vip=0.;
-                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+         eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+         for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+           vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+         fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+       }
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+       fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+     }
-                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
-                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
-                   }else{
+     fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
-                     first=0;
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+         cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+         for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+           for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
-                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+             cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
-                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+             if(cptj2 <= cptj)
-                   }/* if first */
+               fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
-                 } /* age mod 5 */
+           }
-               } /* end loop age */
+       }
-               fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+     fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
-               first=1;
-             } /*l12 */
+   }
-           } /* k12 */
+   free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-         } /*l1 */
+   free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-       }/* k1 */
+   free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-     } /* loop covariates */
+   free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
-   }
+   free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-   free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+   free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-   free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
+   printf("\n");
-   free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+   free_vector(xm,1,npar);
-   fclose(ficresprob);
+   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-   fclose(ficresprobcov);
+   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
-   fclose(ficresprobcor);
+   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
-   fflush(ficgp);
+   free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-   fflush(fichtmcov);
+ }
- }
+ /************ Variance ******************/
+ void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
- /******************* Printing html file ***********/
+ {
- void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
+   /* Variance of health expectancies */
-                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
+   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
-                   int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
+   /* double **newm;*/
-                   int popforecast, int estepm ,\
+   /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
-                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
-                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
+   int movingaverage();
-   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
+   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+   double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
-    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
+   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
-    <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
+   int k;
- </ul>");
+   double *xp;
-    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
+   double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
-  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
+   double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
-            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
+   double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
-    fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
-  - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
+   double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
-            stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
+   double ***p3mat;
-    fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   double age,agelim, hf;
-  - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+   double ***mobaverage;
-            subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
+   int theta;
-    fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   char digit[4];
-  - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age:  ei., eij . If one or more covariate are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
+   char digitp[25];
-    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
+   char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
-    fprintf(fichtm,"\
-  - Population projections by age and states: \
+   if(popbased==1){
-    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileres,"f"),subdirf2(fileres,"f"));
+     if(mobilav!=0)
+       strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
- fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
+     else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
+   }
-  m=cptcoveff;
+   else
-  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+     strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
-  jj1=0;
+   if (mobilav!=0) {
-  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-      jj1++;
+       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-      if (cptcovn > 0) {
+       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
+     }
-        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
+   }
-          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
-        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+   strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev");
-      }
+   sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
-      /* Pij */
+   /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
-      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d1.png\">%s%d1.png</a><br> \
+   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
- <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
+   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
-      /* Quasi-incidences */
+   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
-      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
+   if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
-  before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d2.png\">%s%d2.png</a><br> \
+     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
- <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
-        /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
+   }
-        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
+   printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
-          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Period (stable) prevalence in each health state : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a><br> \
- <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
-        }
+   pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
-      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
+   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
-         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a> <br> \
+   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
- <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
+   for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-      }
+     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
-    } /* end i1 */
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-  }/* End k1 */
+       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
-  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
+   }
+   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
- \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
-  - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
+ /*   } */
-  fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+   varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-          subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
+   pstamp(ficresvij);
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
-  - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+   if(popbased==1)
-          subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
+     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   else
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-  - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
-          subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-  - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
+       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
-    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
+   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
-            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   xp=vector(1,npar);
-  - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
+   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
+   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
+   dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-  - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), eij are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences (i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
-          estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
+   gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+   gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-  - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+   gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-          subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
+   trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
-  - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
+   if(estepm < stepm){
-          subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
+     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+   }
- /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
+   else  hstepm=estepm;
- /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
+   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
- /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
+   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
- /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
+      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
- /*  else  */
+      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
- /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
+      Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */
-  fflush(fichtm);
+   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
-  fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
+      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
+      means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
-  m=cptcoveff;
+      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
+   */
-  jj1=0;
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
-  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+   agelim = AGESUP;
-    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-      jj1++;
+     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
-      if (cptcovn > 0) {
+     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
-        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
+     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
+     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
+     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-      }
-      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
+     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
- prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
- <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);
+         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-      }
+       }
-      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
+       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
- health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
+       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
- <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
-    } /* end i1 */
+       if (popbased==1) {
-  }/* End k1 */
+         if(mobilav ==0){
-  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-  fflush(fichtm);
+             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
- }
+         }else{ /* mobilav */
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
+             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
- void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+         }
+       }
-   char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
-   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
+       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
-   int ng;
+         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
- /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
+           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
- /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
+             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
- /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
+         }
- /*   } */
+       }
+       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
-   /*#ifdef windows */
+          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
-   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
+          as a weighted average of prlim.
-     /*#endif */
+       */
-   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+         for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
-   strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
+           gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-   strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
+       }
-  /* 1eme*/
+       /* end probability of death */
-   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
-    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
+         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
+       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
+       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
- set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
- set ter png small\n\
+       if (popbased==1) {
- set size 0.65,0.65\n\
+         if(mobilav ==0){
- plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+         }else{ /* mobilav */
-        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
-      }
+         }
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+       }
-      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
-        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-      }
+           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
-      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+         }
-        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+       }
-        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
-      }
+          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
+          as a weighted average of prlim.
-    }
+       */
-   }
+       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-   /*2 eme*/
+         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+       }
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
+       /* end probability of death */
-     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
+       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
-     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
+         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-       k=2*i;
+           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+         }
-       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+       for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
-         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+         gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
        }
-       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
-       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
+     } /* End theta */
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
-       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
-         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
-         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
-       }
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
+         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
-         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-       }
+         trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
-       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
-       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
-     }
+     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
-   }
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
-   /*3eme*/
+         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
-   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
-     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
-       /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
+         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-       k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
+         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
+         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
+           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
- set size 0.65,0.65\n\
+             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
- plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
+       }
-       /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+     }
-         for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+     /* pptj */
-         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+     matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-         for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
+     matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+       for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
-       */
+         varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
-       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
+     /* end ppptj */
-         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
+     /*  x centered again */
-         /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
+     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+     prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-       }
-       fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
+     if (popbased==1) {
-     }
+       if(mobilav ==0){
-   }
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-   /* CV preval stable (period) */
+       }else{ /* mobilav */
-   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-     for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+           prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
-       k=3;
+       }
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
+     }
-       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
- set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
+     /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
- unset log y\n\
+        computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
- plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
+        as a weighted average of prlim.
+     */
-       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
+     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
+       for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
-       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
+         gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+     }
-       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
+     /* end probability of death */
-       fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
-       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
+     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
-         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
+     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
+       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
-       }
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);
+         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
-     }
+       }
-   }
+     }
+     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
-   /* proba elementaires */
-   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
-     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-       if (k != i) {
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
-           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
+       }
-           jk++;
+     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
-           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
+     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-         }
+     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-       }
+     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-     }
+     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-    }
+     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+   } /* End age */
-    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
+   free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
+   free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng);
+   free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-        if (ng==2)
+   free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
+   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240"); */
-        else
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter svg size 640, 480");
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
+   /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
-        i=1;
+ /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
-        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
+ /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
-          k3=i;
+ /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
-          for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-            if (k != k2){
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-              if(ng==2)
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-                fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-              else
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
-                fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
+   /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
-              ij=1;
+ */
-              for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
+ /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.svg\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
-                if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
-                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
-                  ij++;
+   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-                }
+   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-                else
+   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+   free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-              }
+   free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
-              fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
+   free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-              for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
+   fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
-                fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
+   fflush(ficgp);
-                ij=1;
+   fflush(fichtm);
-                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+ }  /* end varevsij */
-                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
-                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
+ /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
-                    ij++;
+ void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
-                  }
+ {
-                  else
+   /* Variance of prevalence limit */
-                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
-                }
-                fprintf(ficgp,")");
+   double **dnewm,**doldm;
-              }
+   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
-              fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+   double *xp;
-              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
+   double *gp, *gm;
-              i=i+ncovmodel;
+   double **gradg, **trgradg;
-            }
+   double age,agelim;
-          } /* end k */
+   int theta;
-        } /* end k2 */
-      } /* end jk */
+   pstamp(ficresvpl);
-    } /* end ng */
+   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
-    fflush(ficgp);
+   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
- }  /* end gnuplot */
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
+   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
- /*************** Moving average **************/
- int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
+   xp=vector(1,npar);
+   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   int i, cpt, cptcod;
+   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-   int modcovmax =1;
-   int mobilavrange, mob;
+   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
-   double age;
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+   agelim = AGESUP;
-   modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose
+   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-                            a covariate has 2 modalities */
+     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
-   if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
+     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
+     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
-   if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
+     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
-     if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
+     gp=vector(1,nlstate);
-     else mobilavrange=mobilav;
+     gm=vector(1,nlstate);
-     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
-       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
-           mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-     /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for
+       }
-        fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
+       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-        we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-     */
+         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
-     for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
-       for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
-         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
+       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-               for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
+         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
-                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
-                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-               }
+         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
-             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
+     } /* End theta */
-           }
-         }
+     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-       }/* end age */
-     }/* end mob */
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-   }else return -1;
+       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-   return 0;
+         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
- }/* End movingaverage */
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
- /************** Forecasting ******************/
+     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
- prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
-   /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-      agemin, agemax range of age
+       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
-      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
-      anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
+     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
-   */
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
+       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
-   int *popage;
+     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
-   double agec; /* generic age */
+     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
-   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
+     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
-   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
+     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-   double ***p3mat;
+     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   } /* End age */
-   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
+   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-   agelim=AGESUP;
+   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-   strcpy(fileresf,"f");
+ }
-   strcat(fileresf,fileres);
-   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
+ /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
-     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+ void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+ {
-   }
+   int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
-   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+   int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+   int k=0, l;
+   int first=1, first1, first2;
-   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+   double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
+   double **dnewm,**doldm;
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
+   double *xp;
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+   double *gp, *gm;
-     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+   double **gradg, **trgradg;
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   double **mu;
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
-     }
+   double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
-   }
+   int theta;
+   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+   char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
+   char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   if(estepm < stepm){
+   double ***varpij;
-     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
-   }
+   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
+   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
+     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
-   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
-                                fractional in yp1 */
+   }
-   anprojmean=yp;
+   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");
-   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
+   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
-   mprojmean=yp;
+   if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
-   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
+     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
-   jprojmean=yp;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
-   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+   }
-   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");
+   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
-   i1=cptcoveff;
+   if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
-   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
-   fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
+   }
+   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
-   fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+   printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
- /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
-   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+   printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
-     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
+   fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
-       k=k+1;
+   pstamp(ficresprob);
-       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
+   fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
-       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
-         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+   pstamp(ficresprobcov);
-       }
+   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
-       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
+   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
-       fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
+   pstamp(ficresprobcor);
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
-           fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
-         fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
-       }
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-       for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
+     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
-         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
+       fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+       fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
-         for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
+     }
-           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
+  /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
-           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
-           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
-           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+  */
-           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+   xp=vector(1,npar);
+   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-             if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
+   mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
-               fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+   varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
-               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+   first=1;
-                 fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
-               fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
-             }
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
-             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-               ppij=0.;
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></br>this page is important in order to visualize confidence intervals and especially correlation between disability and recovery</li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
-               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
+   fprintf(fichtmcov,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n",optionfilehtmcov, optionfilehtmcov);
-                 if (mobilav==1)
+   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated \
-                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
+ and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
-                 else {
+  They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
-                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
+   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
-                 }
+ It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
-                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
+ would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
-                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+ standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
-                 }
+  Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
-               } /* end i */
+  and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
-               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
+ To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
-                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
-               }
+   cov[1]=1;
-             }/* end j */
+   /* tj=cptcoveff; */
-           } /* end h */
+   tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
-           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+   if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-         } /* end agec */
+   j1=0;
-       } /* end yearp */
+   for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){
-     } /* end cptcod */
+     /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ */
-   } /* end  cptcov */
+     /*j1++;*/
+       if  (cptcovn>0) {
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+         fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-   fclose(ficresf);
+         fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
- }
+         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
- /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
+         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
- populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
+         fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");
-   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-   int *popage;
+         fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
-   double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
-   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
-   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
+         fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable ");
-   double ***mobaverage;
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
+         fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
-   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");
-   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-   agelim=AGESUP;
+         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");
-   calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
+       }
-   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+       gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+       trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+       gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");
+       gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-   strcat(filerespop,fileres);
+       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
-   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
+         cov[2]=age;
-     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
+         if(nagesqr==1)
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
+           cov[3]= age*age;
-   }
+         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
-   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
+           cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(j1,Tvar[k])];/* j1 1 2 3 4
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
+                                                          * 1  1 1 1 1
+                                                          * 2  2 1 1 1
-   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+                                                          * 3  1 2 1 1
+                                                          */
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
+           /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+         }
-     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+         /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2];
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
-     }
+           cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])];
-   }
-   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
+           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+             xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
-   agelim=AGESUP;
+           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-   hstepm=1;
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
+           k=0;
+           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
-   if (popforecast==1) {
+             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
+               k=k+1;
-       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
+               gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
+             }
-     }
+           }
-     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
-     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
+           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
+             xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
-     i=1;
+           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
+           k=0;
+           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
-     imx=i;
+             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
+               k=k+1;
-   }
+               gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+             }
-   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
+           }
-    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
-       k=k+1;
+           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
-       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
+             gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];
-       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+         }
-         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-       }
+         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
-       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
+           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
+             trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
-       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
+         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
-       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {
-         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
+         pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
-         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
+         k=0;
-           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
+         for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
-           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+             k=k+1;
-           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+             mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
-           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+           }
-           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+         }
+         for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
-           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+           for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
-             if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
+             varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
-               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-             }
+         /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
-             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
-               kk1=0.;kk2=0;
+           printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
-               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
+           fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
-                 if (mobilav==1)
+           }*/
-                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
-                 else {
+         fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
+         fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-                 }
+         fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-               }
-               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
+         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
-                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
+           fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
-                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
+         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
-                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
+           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
-               }
+           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
-             }
+         }
-             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+         i=0;
-               kk1=0.;
+         for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
-                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+           for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){
-                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
+             i++;
-                 }
+             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
-                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
+             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
-             }
+             for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
+               /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
-             if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+               fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
-               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
+               fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
-           }
+             }
-           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+           }
-         }
+         }/* end of loop for state */
-       }
+       } /* end of loop for age */
+       free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-   /******/
+       free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+       free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {
+       free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
-         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
+       /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
-           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
+       /*
-           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
-           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
-           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
-           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
-           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
-             if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
-               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+       */
-             }
-             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+       /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
-               kk1=0.;kk2=0;
+       first1=1;first2=2;
-               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
+       for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
-                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
+         for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){
-               }
+           if(l2==k2) continue;
-               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);
+           j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
-             }
+           for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
-           }
+             for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){
-           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+               if(l1==k1) continue;
-         }
+               i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
-       }
+               if(i<=j) continue;
-    }
+               for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
-   }
+                 if ((int)age %5==0){
+                   v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+                   v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+                   cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
-   if (popforecast==1) {
+                   mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
-     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
+                   mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
-     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
+                   c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
-     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
+                   /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
-   }
+                   lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
-   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+                   lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
-   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+                   if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
-   fclose(ficrespop);
+                     if(first2==1){
- } /* End of popforecast */
+                       first1=0;
+                     printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
- int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
+                     }
- {
+                     fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
-   if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
+                     /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
-     printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
+                     /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
+                   }
-     return (0);
-   }
+                   /* Eigen vectors */
-   fflush(fichier);
+                   v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
-   return (1);
+                   /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
- }
+                   v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
+                   v12=-v21;
+                   v22=v11;
- /**************** function prwizard **********************/
+                   tnalp=v21/v11;
- void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
+                   if(first1==1){
- {
+                     first1=0;
+                     printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
-   /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
+                   }
+                   fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
-   char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
+                   /*printf(fignu*/
-   int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
+                   /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
-   int numlinepar;
+                   /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
+                   if(first==1){
-   printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+                     first=0;
-   fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
-   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
-     jj=0;
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480");
-     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
-       if(j==i) continue;
+  :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\">\
-       jj++;
+ %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
-       /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
+                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
-       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
-         /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-         /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
-         printf(" 0.");
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
-         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
-       }
+                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
-       printf("\n");
+                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
-       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+                   }else{
-     }
+                     first=0;
-   }
+                     fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
-   printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
-   fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
-   npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
-   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
-     jj=0;
+                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
-     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+                   }/* if first */
-       if(j==i) continue;
+                 } /* age mod 5 */
-       jj++;
+               } /* end loop age */
-       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+               fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+               first=1;
-       fflush(stdout);
+             } /*l12 */
-       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+           } /* k12 */
-         /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
+         } /*l1 */
-         /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
+       }/* k1 */
-         printf(" 0.");
+       /* } */ /* loop covariates */
-         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
+   }
-       }
+   free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-       numlinepar++;
+   free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
-       printf("\n");
+   free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+   free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-     }
+   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-   }
+   fclose(ficresprob);
-   printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
+   fclose(ficresprobcov);
- /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
+   fclose(ficresprobcor);
- /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
+   fflush(ficgp);
- /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
+   fflush(fichtmcov);
- /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
+ }
- /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
- /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
- /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
+ /******************* Printing html file ***********/
- /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
+ void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
-   fflush(stdout);
+                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
-   fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
+                   int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
-   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
+                   int popforecast, int estepm ,\
-   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
+                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
-   /* #   ...\n\ */
+                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
-   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
+   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
-   for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
-     jj=0;
+    <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
-     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+ </ul>");
-       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
-         if(j==i) continue;
+  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
-         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
-           jj++;
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
-           ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
+  - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
-           if(itimes==1){
+            stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
-             printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
-             fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+  - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-           }else{
+            subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
-             printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
-             fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+  - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
-             /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
+    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-           }
+            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
-           ll=0;
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
-           for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
+  - Population projections by age and states: \
-             for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
+    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileres,"f"),subdirf2(fileres,"f"));
-               if(lj==li) continue;
-               for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
+ fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
-                 ll++;
-                 if(ll<=jj){
+  m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-                   cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
+  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-                   if(ll<jj){
-                     if(itimes==1){
+  jj1=0;
-                       printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
-                       fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+    /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
-                     }else{
+      jj1++;
-                       printf(" 0.");
+      if (cptcovn > 0) {
-                       fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
-                     }
+        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++){
-                   }else{
+          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);
-                     if(itimes==1){
+          printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);fflush(stdout);
-                       printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+        }
-                       fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
-                     }else{
+      }
-                       printf(" 0.");
+      /* Pij */
-                       fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d_1.svg\">%s%d_1.svg</a><br> \
-                     }
+ <img src=\"%s%d_1.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
-                   }
+      /* Quasi-incidences */
-                 }
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
-               } /* end lk */
+  before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d_2.svg\">%s%d_2.svg</a><br> \
-             } /* end lj */
+ <img src=\"%s%d_2.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
-           } /* end li */
+        /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
-           printf("\n");
+        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
-           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
-           numlinepar++;
+ <img src=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
-         } /* end k*/
+        }
-       } /*end j */
+      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-     } /* end i */
+         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) : <a href=\"%s%d%d.svg\">%s%d%d.svg</a> <br> \
-   } /* end itimes */
+ <img src=\"%s%d%d.svg\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
+      }
- } /* end of prwizard */
+    /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
- /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
+  }/* End k1 */
- double gompertz(double x[])
+  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
- {
-   double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
-   int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
+ \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
+  - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br> \
-   for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
+  - 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file.<br> \
-     sump=sump+weight[i];
+ But because parameters are usually highly correlated (a higher incidence of disability \
-     /*    sump=sump+1;*/
+ and a higher incidence of recovery can give very close observed transition) it might \
-     num=num+1;
+ be very useful to look not only at linear confidence intervals estimated from the \
-   }
+ variances but at the covariance matrix. And instead of looking at the estimated coefficients \
+ (parameters) of the logistic regression, it might be more meaningful to visualize the \
+ covariance matrix of the one-step probabilities. \
-   /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++)
+ See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' below. \n", rfileres,rfileres);
-      if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
+  fprintf(fichtm," - Standard deviation of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-   for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
+          subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
-     {
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
-       if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
+  - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-         A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
+          subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
-       if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
-         A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
+  - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-              +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);
+          subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
-       /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
+  - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
-       if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
+    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
-         L=L+A*weight[i];
+            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
-         /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
-       }
+  - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
-     }
+    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
+            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
-  /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+  - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), e<sup>ij</sup> are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
-   return -2*L*num/sump;
+          estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
- }
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+  - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
- /******************* Printing html file ***********/
+          estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
- void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\
-                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
+  - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
-                   int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
+          subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
-   int i,k;
+ /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
+ /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
-   fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
+ /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
-   for (i=1;i<=2;i++)
+ /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
-     fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
+ /*  else  */
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
+ /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
-   fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
+  fflush(fichtm);
+  fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
- fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
+  m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
+  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-  for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
+  jj1=0;
-    fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
+  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+    /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
+      jj1++;
-   fflush(fichtm);
+      if (cptcovn > 0) {
- }
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
+        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
- /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
+          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);
- void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+      }
-   char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
+      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
-   int ng;
+ prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.svg <br>\
+ <img src=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);
+      }
-   /*#ifdef windows */
+      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
-   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
+ health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
-     /*#endif */
+ true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
+  drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
+  observed and cahotic prevalences: %s%d.svg<br>\
-   strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
+ <img src=\"%s%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
-   strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
+    /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n ");
+  }/* End k1 */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n ");
+  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
-   fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small\n set log y\n");
+  fflush(fichtm);
-   fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n");
+ }
-   fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
+ /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
- }
+ void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+   char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
+   int cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
+   int ng=0;
+ /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
- /***********************************************/
+ /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
- /**************** Main Program *****************/
+ /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
- /***********************************************/
+ /*   } */
- int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+   /*#ifdef windows */
- {
+   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
-   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
+     /*#endif */
-   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
+   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-   int linei, month, year,iout;
-   int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
+   strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
-   int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
+   strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
-   int itimes;
+  /* 1eme*/
-   int NDIM=2;
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'vpl' files\n");
+   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
-   char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
-   char dummy[]="                         ";
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
-   /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
-   /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
+      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
-   struct stat info;
+ set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
-   double agedeb, agefin,hf;
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
-   double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
+ plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
-   double fret;
+      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-   double **xi,tmp,delta;
+        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+        else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-   double dum; /* Dummy variable */
+      }
-   double ***p3mat;
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
-   double ***mobaverage;
+      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-   int *indx;
+        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
+        else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-   char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
+      }
-   char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE];
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
-   char **bp, *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
+      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
+        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
+        else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-   int c,  h , cpt,l;
+      }
-   int ju,jl, mi;
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
-   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
+    }
-   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab;
+   }
-   int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
+   /*2 eme*/
-   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
-   int hstepm, nhstepm;
+   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
-   int agemortsup;
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
-   float  sumlpop=0.;
+     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter svg size 640, 480\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
-   double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
-   double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
+     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
+       k=2*i;
-   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
-   double ftolpl=FTOL;
+       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-   double **prlim;
+         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-   double *severity;
+         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
+       }
-   double  *p;
+       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
-   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
+       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
-   double ***delti3; /* Scale */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
-   double *delti; /* Scale */
+       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-   double ***eij, ***vareij;
+         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
+         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-   double *epj, vepp;
+       }
-   double kk1, kk2;
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
-   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
-   double **ximort;
+       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
+         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-   int *dcwave;
+         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+       }
-   char z[1]="c", occ;
+       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
+       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
-   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
+     }
-   char  *strt, strtend[80];
+   }
-   char *stratrunc;
-   int lstra;
+   /*3eme*/
-   long total_usecs;
+   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
- /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
+       /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
- /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
+       k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
- /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
- /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
- /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
+ plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
+       /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
-   /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
+         for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
-   (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
-   curr_time=start_time;
+         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
-   tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
+         for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
-   tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
-   strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
+       */
- /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
+       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
- /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
+         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
- /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
+         /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
- /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
- /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
+       }
- /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
+       fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
- /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
+     }
- /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
+   }
- /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
- /*  (void) time (&time_value);
+   /* CV preval stable (period) */
- *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
+   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
- *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
+     for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
- *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
+       k=3;
- *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
- */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
-   nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
-   nbwarn=0;
+ unset log y\n\
-   getcwd(pathcd, size);
+ plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
-   printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
+         if(i==1)
-   if(argc <=1){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
-     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
+         else
-     fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
+           fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
-     i=strlen(pathr);
+         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
-     if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
+         fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
-       pathr[i-1]='\0';
+         for (j=1; j<= (nlstate-1) ; j ++)
-    for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j);
-       printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
+         fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
-       while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
+       } /* nlstate */
-       printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
-       strcpy (pathtot, val);
+     } /* end cpt state*/
-       if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
+   } /* end covariate */
-     }
-   }
+   /* proba elementaires */
-   else{
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#MLE estimated parameters\n#############\n");
-     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
+   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-   }
+     fprintf(ficgp,"# initial state %d\n",i);
-   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
+     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
-   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
+       if (k != i) {
-     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
+         fprintf(ficgp,"#   current state %d\n",k);
-   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
+         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f; ",jk,p[jk]);
-   /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
+           jk++;
-   printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
+         }
-   split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
-   printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+       }
-  /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
+     }
-   /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
+    }
-   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"##############\n#\n");
-   printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
-   chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
+   /*goto avoid;*/
-   if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#Graphics of of probabilities or incidences\n#############\n");
-     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p12/p11)=a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age\n");
-   strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p12/p11)=p1 +p2*age +p3*age*age+ p4*V1+ p5*V1*age\n");
-   strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p13/p11)=a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age\n");
-   if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p13/p11)=p6 +p7*age +p8*age*age+ p9*V1+ p10*V1*age\n");
-     printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# p12+p13+p14+p11=1=p11(1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
-     /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"#                      +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age)+...)\n");
-     /* fclose(ficlog); */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# p11=1/(1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
- /*     exit(1); */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"#                      +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age)+...)\n");
-   }
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# p12=exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)/\n");
- /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"#     (1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
- /*     perror("mkdir"); */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age))\n");
- /*   } */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a14+b14*age+c14age*age+d14*V1+e14*V1*age)+...)\n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"#\n");
-   /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
+    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
+      fprintf(ficgp,"# ng=%d\n",ng);
-   /* Log file */
+      fprintf(ficgp,"#   jk=1 to 2^%d=%d\n",cptcoveff,m);
-   strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
+      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
-   strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
+        fprintf(ficgp,"#    jk=%d\n",jk);
-   if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng);
-     printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
+        if (ng==2)
-     goto end;
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
-   }
+        else
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
+        i=1;
-   fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
+        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
-  path=%s \n\
+          k3=i;
-  optionfile=%s\n\
+          for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
-  optionfilext=%s\n\
+            if (k != k2){
-  optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+              if(ng==2)
+                if(nagesqr==0)
-   printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
+                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
+                else /* nagesqr =1 */
-   fflush(ficlog);
+                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
- /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
+              else
- /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
+                if(nagesqr==0)
+                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
-   /* */
+                else /* nagesqr =1 */
-   strcpy(fileres,"r");
+                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
-   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
+              ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
-   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
+              for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) {
+                /* printf("Tage[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tage[ij], j); */
-   /*---------arguments file --------*/
+                if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                  if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
-   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]);
-     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
+                    ij++;
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
+                  }
-     fflush(ficlog);
+                }
-     goto end;
+                else
-   }
+                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
+              }
+              fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
-   strcpy(filereso,"o");
+              for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
-   strcat(filereso,fileres);
+                if(nagesqr==0)
-   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
+                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
-     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
+                else /* nagesqr =1 */
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
+                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr);
-     fflush(ficlog);
-     goto end;
+                ij=1;
-   }
+                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
+                  if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
-   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+                    if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
-   numlinepar=0;
+                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]);
-   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+                      ij++;
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+                    }
-     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+                  }
-     numlinepar++;
+                  else
-     puts(line);
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
-     fputs(line,ficparo);
+                }
-     fputs(line,ficlog);
+                fprintf(ficgp,")");
-   }
+              }
-   ungetc(c,ficpar);
+              fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
-   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
+              i=i+ncovmodel;
-   numlinepar++;
+            }
-   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
+          } /* end k */
-   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
+        } /* end k2 */
-   fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
+      } /* end jk */
-   fflush(ficlog);
+    } /* end ng */
-   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+  /* avoid: */
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fflush(ficgp);
-     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+ }  /* end gnuplot */
-     numlinepar++;
-     puts(line);
-     fputs(line,ficparo);
+ /*************** Moving average **************/
-     fputs(line,ficlog);
+ int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
-   }
-   ungetc(c,ficpar);
+   int i, cpt, cptcod;
+   int modcovmax =1;
+   int mobilavrange, mob;
-   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
+   double age;
-   cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
-   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
+   modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose
+                            a covariate has 2 modalities */
-   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
+   if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
-   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
-   npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
+   if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
+     if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
-   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+     else mobilavrange=mobilav;
-   delti=delti3[1][1];
+     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
-   /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
+       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-   if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
+         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
-     prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
+           mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
-     printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+     /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for
-     fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+        fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
-     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+        we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.
-     fclose (ficparo);
+     */
-     fclose (ficlog);
+     for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
-     goto end;
+       for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
-     exit(0);
+         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-   }
+           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
-   else if(mle==-3) {
+             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
-     prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
+               for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
-     printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
-     fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
-     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+               }
-     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
-   }
+           }
-   else{
+         }
-     /* Read guess parameters */
+       }/* end age */
-     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+     }/* end mob */
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+   }else return -1;
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+   return 0;
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+ }/* End movingaverage */
-       numlinepar++;
-       puts(line);
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
+ /************** Forecasting ******************/
-       fputs(line,ficlog);
+ void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
-     }
+   /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+      agemin, agemax range of age
+      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
-     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+      anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
-     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+   */
-       j=0;
+   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1;
-       for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+   double agec; /* generic age */
-         if(jj==i) continue;
+   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
-         j++;
+   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
-         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
+   double ***p3mat;
-         if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
+   double ***mobaverage;
-           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
+   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
- It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
- run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
+   agelim=AGESUP;
-           exit(1);
+   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
-         }
-         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+   strcpy(fileresf,"f");
-         if(mle==1)
+   strcat(fileresf,fileres);
-           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
-         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
-         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
-           fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
+   }
-           if(mle==1){
+   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
-             printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
-           }
+   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-           else
-             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+   if (mobilav!=0) {
-           fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-         }
+     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-         numlinepar++;
+       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-         if(mle==1)
+     }
-           printf("\n");
+   }
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
-       }
+   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
-     }
+   if(estepm < stepm){
-     fflush(ficlog);
+     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+   }
-     p=param[1][1];
+   else  hstepm=estepm;
-     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+                                fractional in yp1 */
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+   anprojmean=yp;
-       numlinepar++;
+   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
-       puts(line);
+   mprojmean=yp;
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
+   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
-       fputs(line,ficlog);
+   jprojmean=yp;
-     }
+   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
-     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+   i1=cptcoveff;
-       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
+   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
-         if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
+   fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
-           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
-           exit(1);
+   fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
-         }
-         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+ /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
-         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
-         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+       k=k+1;
-           fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
+       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
-           printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-           fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+       }
-         }
+       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
-         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
-         numlinepar++;
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         printf("\n");
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+           fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+         fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
        }
-     }
+       for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
-     fflush(ficlog);
+         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
-     delti=delti3[1][1];
+         for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
+           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
-     /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
+           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-       numlinepar++;
+             if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
-       puts(line);
+               fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
+               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-       fputs(line,ficlog);
+                 fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-     }
+               fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+             }
+             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+               ppij=0.;
-     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
+               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-       fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
+                 if (mobilav==1)
-       if(mle==1)
+                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
-         printf("%s",str);
+                 else {
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
+                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
-       fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
+                 }
-       for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
+                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
-         fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
+                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
-         if(mle==1){
+                 }
-           printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+               } /* end i */
-         }
+               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
-         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
-         fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+               }
-       }
+             }/* end j */
-       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+           } /* end h */
-       numlinepar++;
+           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-       if(mle==1)
+         } /* end agec */
-         printf("\n");
+       } /* end yearp */
-       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+     } /* end cptcod */
-       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+   } /* end  cptcov */
-     }
-     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
+   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-       for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
-         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
+   fclose(ficresf);
+ }
-     if(mle==1)
-       printf("\n");
+ /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
-     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+ void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
-     fflush(ficlog);
+   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
+   int *popage;
-     /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
+   double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
-     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
+   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
-     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
+   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
-     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
+   double ***mobaverage;
-     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
+   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
-     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
-       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-     }
+   agelim=AGESUP;
-     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
+   calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
-   }    /* End of mle != -3 */
+   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
-   /*-------- data file ----------*/
-   if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
-     printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
+   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
+   strcat(filerespop,fileres);
-   }
+   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
-   n= lastobs;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
-   severity = vector(1,maxwav);
+   }
-   outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
-   num=lvector(1,n);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
-   moisnais=vector(1,n);
-   annais=vector(1,n);
+   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-   moisdc=vector(1,n);
-   andc=vector(1,n);
+   if (mobilav!=0) {
-   agedc=vector(1,n);
+     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-   cod=ivector(1,n);
+     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-   weight=vector(1,n);
+       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-   for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
+       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-   mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
+     }
-   anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
+   }
-   s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
-   tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
+   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
-   ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
+   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
-   i=1;
+   agelim=AGESUP;
-   linei=0;
-   while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
+   hstepm=1;
-     linei=linei+1;
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
-     for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
-       if(line[j] == '\t')
+   if (popforecast==1) {
-         line[j] = ' ';
+     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
-     }
+       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
-     for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
-       ;
+     }
-     };
+     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
-     line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
+     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
-     if(line[0]=='#'){
+     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
-       printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
+     i=1;
-       continue;
+     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
-     }
+     imx=i;
-     for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
+     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
-       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+   }
-       errno=0;
-       lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
-       /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
+    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
-       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+       k=k+1;
-         printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %d %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
+       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
-         exit(1);
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-       }
+         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-       s[j][i]=lval;
+       }
+       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
-       strcpy(line,stra);
+       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
-       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
-       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
+       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
-       }
-       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
+       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {
-         month=99;
+         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
-         year=9999;
-       }else{
+         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
-         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
+           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
-         exit(1);
+           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
-       }
-       anint[j][i]= (double) year;
+           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-       mint[j][i]= (double)month;
+           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-       strcpy(line,stra);
+           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
-     } /* ENd Waves */
+           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-     cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+             if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
-     if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
+               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-     }
+             }
-     else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
+             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-       month=99;
+               kk1=0.;kk2=0;
-       year=9999;
+               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-     }else{
+                 if (mobilav==1)
-       printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
+                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
-       exit(1);
+                 else {
-     }
+                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
-     andc[i]=(double) year;
+                 }
-     moisdc[i]=(double) month;
+               }
-     strcpy(line,stra);
+               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
+                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
-     cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
-     if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
+                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
-     }
+               }
-     else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
+             }
-       month=99;
+             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-       year=9999;
+               kk1=0.;
-     }else{
+                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-       printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line,j);
+                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
-       exit(1);
+                 }
-     }
+                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
-     annais[i]=(double)(year);
+             }
-     moisnais[i]=(double)(month);
-     strcpy(line,stra);
+             if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
-     cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+           }
-     errno=0;
+           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-     dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
+         }
-     if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+       }
-       printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %ld, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
-       exit(1);
+   /******/
-     }
-     weight[i]=dval;
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {
-     strcpy(line,stra);
+         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
+         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
-     for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
+           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
-       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
-       errno=0;
-       lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
+           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
-         exit(1);
+           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-       }
+             if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
-       if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
+               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-         printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld for individual %d, '%s'\n \
+             }
-  Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
+             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-  for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
+               kk1=0.;kk2=0;
-  For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
+               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-  build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
+                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
-         V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
+               }
-  and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
+               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);
-  output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
+             }
-  Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
+           }
-         exit(1);
+           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-       }
+         }
-       covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
+       }
-       strcpy(line,stra);
+    }
-     }
+   }
-     lstra=strlen(stra);
+   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-     if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
-       stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
+   if (popforecast==1) {
-       num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
+     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
-     }
+     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
-     else
+     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
-       num[i]=atol(stra);
+   }
-     /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
+   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-       printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
+   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+   fclose(ficrespop);
-     i=i+1;
+ } /* End of popforecast */
-   } /* End loop reading  data */
-   fclose(fic);
+ int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
-   /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
+ {
-      scanf("%d",i);*/
+   if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
-   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
+     printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
-   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+     return (0);
-     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
+   }
-     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
+   fflush(fichier);
-     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
+   return (1);
-     }*/
+ }
-    /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
-      if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1;
-      printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
+ /**************** function prwizard **********************/
+ void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
-   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) */
+ {
-    /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
+   /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
-      else weight[i]=1;*/
+   char ca[32], cb[32];
-   /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
+   int i,j, k, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
-   Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
+   int numlinepar;
-   Tprod=ivector(1,15);
-   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);
+   printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
-   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
+   fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
-   Tage=ivector(1,15);
+   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+     jj=0;
-   if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
+     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
+       if(j==i) continue;
-     j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
+       jj++;
-     j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
+       /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
-     cptcovn=j+1;
+       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
-     cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
+       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-     strcpy(modelsav,model);
+         /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
-     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
+         /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
-       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
+         printf(" 0.");
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
+         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
-       goto end;
+       }
-     }
+       printf("\n");
+       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
-     /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
+     }
+   }
-     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
+   printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
-       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */
+   fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
-       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
+   npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
-       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
+   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-       /*scanf("%d",i);*/
+     jj=0;
-       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
+     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
+       if(j==i) continue;
-         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
+       jj++;
-           cptcovprod--;
+       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
-           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
+       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
-           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
+       fflush(stdout);
-           cptcovage++;
+       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-             Tage[cptcovage]=i;
+         /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
-             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
+         /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
-         }
+         printf(" 0.");
-         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
+         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
-           cptcovprod--;
+       }
-           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
+       numlinepar++;
-           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
+       printf("\n");
-           cptcovage++;
+       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
-           Tage[cptcovage]=i;
+     }
-         }
+   }
-         else {  /* Age is not in the model */
+   printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
-           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
+ /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
-           Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
+ /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
-           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
+ /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
-           Tprod[k1]=i;
+ /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
-           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
+ /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
-           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
+ /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
-           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
+ /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
-           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
+ /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
-           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)
+   fflush(stdout);
-             covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
+   fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
-           k1++;
+   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
-           k2=k2+2;
+   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
-         }
+   /* #   ...\n\ */
-       }
+   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
-       else { /* no more sum */
-         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
+   for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
-        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
+     jj=0;
-       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
+     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
+       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-       }
+         if(j==i) continue;
-       strcpy(modelsav,stra);
+         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
+           jj++;
-         scanf("%d",i);*/
+           ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
-     } /* end of loop + */
+           if(itimes==1){
-   } /* end model */
+             printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+             fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-   /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
+           }else{
-     If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
+             printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+             fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-   /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
+             /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
-   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
+           }
-   fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
+           ll=0;
+           for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
-   scanf("%d ",i);*/
+             for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
+               if(lj==li) continue;
-     /*  if(mle==1){*/
+               for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
-   if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
+                 ll++;
-     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
+                 if(ll<=jj){
-   }
+                   cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
-     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
+                   if(ll<jj){
-   agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
+                     if(itimes==1){
+                       printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
-   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+                       fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
-     for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
+                     }else{
-       if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
+                       printf(" 0.");
-         anint[m][i]=9999;
+                       fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
-         s[m][i]=-1;
+                     }
-       }
+                   }else{
-       if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
+                     if(itimes==1){
-         nberr++;
+                       printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
-         printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
+                       fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
+                     }else{
-         s[m][i]=-1;
+                       printf(" 0.");
-       }
+                       fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
-       if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
+                     }
-         nberr++;
+                   }
-         printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]);
+                 }
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]);
+               } /* end lk */
-         s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
+             } /* end lj */
-       }
+           } /* end li */
-     }
+           printf("\n");
-   }
+           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+           numlinepar++;
-   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
+         } /* end k*/
-     agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
+       } /*end j */
-     for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
+     } /* end i */
-       if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
+   } /* end itimes */
-         if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
-           if(agedc[i]>0)
+ } /* end of prwizard */
-             if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
+ /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
-               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
+ double gompertz(double x[])
-           /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
+ {
-             else {
+   double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
-               if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
+   int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
-                 nbwarn++;
-                 printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
+   for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
-                 fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
+     sump=sump+weight[i];
-                 agev[m][i]=-1;
+     /*    sump=sump+1;*/
-               }
+     num=num+1;
-             }
+   }
-         }
-         else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
-                                  years but with the precision of a month */
+   /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++)
-           agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
+      if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
-           if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
-             agev[m][i]=1;
+   for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
-           else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){
+     {
-             agemin=agev[m][i];
+       if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
-             /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
+         A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
-           }
-           else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
+       if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
-             agemax=agev[m][i];
+         A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
-             /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
+              +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);
-           }
-           /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
+       /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
-           /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
+       if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
-         }
+         L=L+A*weight[i];
-         else { /* =9 */
+         /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
-           agev[m][i]=1;
+       }
-           s[m][i]=-1;
+     }
-         }
-       }
+  /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
-       else /*= 0 Unknown */
-         agev[m][i]=1;
+   return -2*L*num/sump;
-     }
+ }
-   }
+ #ifdef GSL
-   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
+ /******************* Gompertz_f Likelihood ******************************/
-     for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
+ double gompertz_f(const gsl_vector *v, void *params)
-       if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
+ {
-         nberr++;
+   double A,B,LL=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
-         printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);
+   double *x= (double *) v->data;
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);
+   int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
-         goto end;
-       }
+   for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
-     }
+     sump=sump+weight[i];
-   }
+     /*    sump=sump+1;*/
+     num=num+1;
-   /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+   }
-   for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
-      printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
- }
+   /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++)
+      if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
- }*/
+   printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf\n",x[0],x[1]);
+   for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
+     {
-   printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
+       if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
+         A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
-   agegomp=(int)agemin;
+       if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
-   free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
+         A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
-   free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+              +log(x[0]/YEARM)+x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);
-   free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
-   free_vector(annais,1,n);
+       /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
-   /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+       if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
-      free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
+         LL=LL+A*weight[i];
-   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
+         /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
-   free_vector(andc,1,n);
+       }
+     }
-   wav=ivector(1,imx);
+  /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
-   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf -2*LL*num/sump=%lf\n",x[0],x[1],-2*LL*num/sump);
-   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
-   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   return -2*LL*num/sump;
+ }
-   /* Concatenates waves */
+ #endif
-   concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
+ /******************* Printing html file ***********/
-   /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
+ void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
+                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
-   Tcode=ivector(1,100);
+                   int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
-   nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
+   int i,k;
-   ncodemax[1]=1;
-   if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
+   fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
-   codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of
+   for (i=1;i<=2;i++)
-                                  the estimations*/
+     fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
-   h=0;
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.svg\">");
-   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
-   for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
+ fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
-     for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
-       for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
-         for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
-           h++;
+  for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
-           if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
+    fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
-           /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
-         }
-       }
+   fflush(fichtm);
-     }
+ }
-   }
-   /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);
+ /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
-      codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
+ void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
-   /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){
-      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
+   char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
-      printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
-      }
+   int ng;
-      printf("\n");
-      }
-      scanf("%d",i);*/
+   /*#ifdef windows */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
-   /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
+     /*#endif */
-   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
-   if(mle==-3)
-     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
+   strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
-   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
+   strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.svg\"\n ");
-   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
+   fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n ");
-     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
+   fprintf(ficgp, "set ter svg size 640, 480\n set log y\n");
-   }
+   /* fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n"); */
-   else{
+   fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version);
-     fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
+ }
-     fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
-   }
+ int readdata(char datafile[], int firstobs, int lastobs, int *imax)
-   /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
+ {
-   /*--------- index.htm --------*/
+   /*-------- data file ----------*/
-   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
+   FILE *fic;
-   if(mle==-3)
+   char dummy[]="                         ";
-     strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
+   int i=0, j=0, n=0;
-   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
+   int linei, month, year,iout;
-   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
+   char line[MAXLINE], linetmp[MAXLINE];
-     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
+   char stra[MAXLINE], strb[MAXLINE];
-   }
+   char *stratrunc;
+   int lstra;
-   strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
-   strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
-   if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
+   if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
-     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
+     printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(stdout);
-   }
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(ficlog);return 1;
-   else{
+   }
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
- <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+   i=1;
- Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
+   linei=0;
-           optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
+   while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
-   }
+     linei=linei+1;
+     for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+       if(line[j] == '\t')
- <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+         line[j] = ' ';
- Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
+     }
- \n\
+     for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
- <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
+       ;
-  <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
+     };
-  - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
+     line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
-  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
+     if(line[0]=='#'){
-  - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
-  - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
+       printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
-  - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
+       continue;
-           optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
+     }
-           optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
+     trimbb(linetmp,line); /* Trims multiple blanks in line */
-           fileres,fileres,\
+     strcpy(line, linetmp);
-           filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
-   fflush(fichtm);
+     for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
-   strcpy(pathr,path);
+       cutv(stra, strb, line, ' ');
-   strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
+       if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
-   chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
+         lval=-1;
+       }else{
-   /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
+         errno=0;
-      and prints on file fileres'p'. */
+         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
-   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
+       /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
+         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
+           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
+           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
- Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
+           return 1;
- Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
+         }
-           imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
+       }
-   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+       s[j][i]=lval;
-     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+       strcpy(line,stra);
-     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
-     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+       if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
+       }
+       else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
-   /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
+         month=99;
-      so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
+         year=9999;
-   p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
+       }else{
+         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
-   globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
+         return 1;
-   if (mle==-3){
+       }
-     ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
+       anint[j][i]= (double) year;
-     cens=ivector(1,n);
+       mint[j][i]= (double)month;
-     ageexmed=vector(1,n);
+       strcpy(line,stra);
-     agecens=vector(1,n);
+     } /* ENd Waves */
-     dcwave=ivector(1,n);
+     cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
-     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+     if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
-       dcwave[i]=-1;
+     }
-       for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
+     else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
-         if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
+       month=99;
-           dcwave[i]=m;
+       year=9999;
-           /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
+     }else{
-           break;
+       printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
-         }
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
-     }
+         return 1;
+     }
-     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+     andc[i]=(double) year;
-       if (wav[i]>0){
+     moisdc[i]=(double) month;
-         ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
+     strcpy(line,stra);
-         j=wav[i];
-         agecens[i]=1.;
+     cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+     if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
-         if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
+     }
-           agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
+     else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.", dummy)) != 0){
-           cens[i]= 1;
+       month=99;
-         }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
+       year=9999;
-           cens[i]= -1;
+     }else{
-         if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
+       printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
-           cens[i]=0 ;
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
-       }
+         return 1;
-       else cens[i]=-1;
+     }
-     }
+     if (year==9999) {
+       printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
-     for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
-       for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
+         return 1;
-         ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      }
+     annais[i]=(double)(year);
-     p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;
+     moisnais[i]=(double)(month);
-     /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
+     strcpy(line,stra);
+     cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
-     printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+     errno=0;
-     strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort");
+     dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
-     strcat(filerespow,fileres);
+     if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
-     if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
-       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+       fflush(ficlog);
-     }
+       return 1;
-     fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
+     }
-     /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+     weight[i]=dval;
-         for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+     strcpy(line,stra);
-         if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
-     */
+     for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
-     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
+       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+       if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
-     powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
+         lval=-1;
-     fclose(ficrespow);
+       }else{
+         errno=0;
-     hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
+         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
-     for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
+           printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
-       for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
+           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
-         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
+           return 1;
+         }
-     printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
+       }
-     for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
+       if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
-       for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){
+         printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
-         printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
+  Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
-       }
+  for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
-       printf("\n ");
+  For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
-     }
+  build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
+         V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
-     printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
+  and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
-     for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++)
+  output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
-       printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
+  Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
-     lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
+  Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
-     lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
+  for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
-     tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
+  For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
-     lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
+  build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
+         V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
-     for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
+  and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
-       agemortsup=k;
+  output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
-       if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
+  Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
-     }
+         return 1;
+       }
-     for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
+       covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
-       lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
+       strcpy(line,stra);
+     }
-     for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
+     lstra=strlen(stra);
-       lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
-       sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
+     if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
-     }
+       stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
+       num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
-     tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
+     }
-     for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
+     else
-       /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
+       num[i]=atol(stra);
-       tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
+     /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
-     }
+       printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
+     i=i+1;
-     printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
+   } /* End loop reading  data */
-     for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
-       printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
+   *imax=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
+   fclose(fic);
-     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
+   return (0);
-     printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+   /* endread: */
+     printf("Exiting readdata: ");
-     printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
+     fclose(fic);
-                      stepm, weightopt,\
+     return (1);
-                      model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
-     free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
-     free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
+ }
-     free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
+ void removespace(char *str) {
-   } /* Endof if mle==-3 */
+   char *p1 = str, *p2 = str;
+   do
-   else{ /* For mle >=1 */
+     while (*p2 == ' ')
+       p2++;
-     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
+   while (*p1++ == *p2++);
-     printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
+ }
-     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
-       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
+ int decodemodel ( char model[], int lastobs) /**< This routine decode the model and returns:
-     printf("\n");
+    * Model  V1+V2+V3+V8+V7*V8+V5*V6+V8*age+V3*age+age*age
-     globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
+    * - nagesqr = 1 if age*age in the model, otherwise 0.
-     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
+    * - cptcovt total number of covariates of the model nbocc(+)+1 = 8 excepting constant and age and age*age
-     printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
+    * - cptcovn or number of covariates k of the models excluding age*products =6 and age*age
-     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
+    * - cptcovage number of covariates with age*products =2
-       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
+    * - cptcovs number of simple covariates
-     printf("\n");
+    * - Tvar[k] is the id of the kth covariate Tvar[1]@12 {1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 8, 3, 7, 8, 5, 6}, thus Tvar[5=V7*V8]=10
-     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
+    *     which is a new column after the 9 (ncovcol) variables.
-       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
+    * - if k is a product Vn*Vm covar[k][i] is filled with correct values for each individual
-     }
+    * - Tprod[l] gives the kth covariates of the product Vn*Vm l=1 to cptcovprod-cptcovage
+    *    Tprod[1]@2 {5, 6}: position of first product V7*V8 is 5, and second V5*V6 is 6.
-     /*--------- results files --------------*/
+    * - Tvard[k]  p Tvard[1][1]@4 {7, 8, 5, 6} for V7*V8 and V5*V6 .
-     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
+  */
+ {
+   int i, j, k, ks;
-     fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+   int  j1, k1, k2;
-     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+   char modelsav[80];
-     fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80];
-     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+   char *strpt;
-       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
-         if (k != i) {
+   /*removespace(model);*/
-           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
+   if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
+     j=0, j1=0, k1=0, k2=-1, ks=0, cptcovn=0;
-           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
+     if (strstr(model,"AGE") !=0){
-           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+       printf("Error. AGE must be in lower case 'age' model=1+age+%s. ",model);
-             printf("%lf ",p[jk]);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Error. AGE must be in lower case model=1+age+%s. ",model);fflush(ficlog);
-             fprintf(ficlog,"%lf ",p[jk]);
+       return 1;
-             fprintf(ficres,"%lf ",p[jk]);
+     }
-             jk++;
+     if (strstr(model,"v") !=0){
-           }
+       printf("Error. 'v' must be in upper case 'V' model=%s ",model);
-           printf("\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Error. 'v' must be in upper case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+       return 1;
-           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+     }
-         }
+     strcpy(modelsav,model);
-       }
+     if ((strpt=strstr(model,"age*age")) !=0){
-     }
+       printf(" strpt=%s, model=%s\n",strpt, model);
-     if(mle!=0){
+       if(strpt != model){
-       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
+       printf("Error in model: 'model=%s'; 'age*age' should in first place before other covariates\n \
-       ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
+  'model=1+age+age*age+V1.' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age.', please swap as well as \n \
-       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
+  corresponding column of parameters.\n",model);
-     }
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Error in model: 'model=%s'; 'age*age' should in first place before other covariates\n \
-     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+  'model=1+age+age*age+V1.' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age.', please swap as well as \n \
-     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+  corresponding column of parameters.\n",model); fflush(ficlog);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+       return 1;
-     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+     }
-       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-         if (j!=i) {
+       nagesqr=1;
-           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+       if (strstr(model,"+age*age") !=0)
-           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+         substrchaine(modelsav, model, "+age*age");
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+       else if (strstr(model,"age*age+") !=0)
-           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+         substrchaine(modelsav, model, "age*age+");
-             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
+       else
-             fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+         substrchaine(modelsav, model, "age*age");
-             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+     }else
-             jk++;
+       nagesqr=0;
-           }
+     if (strlen(modelsav) >1){
-           printf("\n");
+       j=nbocc(modelsav,'+'); /**< j=Number of '+' */
-           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+       j1=nbocc(modelsav,'*'); /**< j1=Number of '*' */
-           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+       cptcovs=j+1-j1; /**<  Number of simple covariates V1+V1*age+V3 +V3*V4+age*age=> V1 + V3 =2  */
-         }
+       cptcovt= j+1; /* Number of total covariates in the model, not including
-       }
+                    * cst, age and age*age
-     }
+                    * V1+V1*age+ V3 + V3*V4+age*age=> 4*/
+                   /* including age products which are counted in cptcovage.
-     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+                   * but the covariates which are products must be treated
-     if(mle>=1)
+                   * separately: ncovn=4- 2=2 (V1+V3). */
-       printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+       cptcovprod=j1; /**< Number of products  V1*V2 +v3*age = 2 */
-     fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+       cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age: V3*V4 =1  */
-     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
-     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
-     /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
+       /*   Design
-     /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
+        *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9 Weight
-     /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
+        *  <          ncovcol=8                >
-     /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
+        * Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8
-     /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
+        *   k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8
-     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
+        *  cptcovn number of covariates (not including constant and age ) = # of + plus 1 = 7+1=8
+        *  covar[k,i], value of kth covariate if not including age for individual i:
+        *       covar[1][i]= (V2), covar[4][i]=(V3), covar[8][i]=(V8)
-     /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
+        *  Tvar[k] # of the kth covariate:  Tvar[1]=2  Tvar[4]=3 Tvar[8]=8
-        even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
+        *       if multiplied by age: V3*age Tvar[3=V3*age]=3 (V3) Tvar[7]=8 and
-     */
+        *  Tage[++cptcovage]=k
-     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
+        *       if products, new covar are created after ncovcol with k1
-       jj=0;
+        *  Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; # of the kth covariate product:  Tvar[5]=ncovcol+1=10  Tvar[6]=ncovcol+1=11
-       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+        *  Tprod[k1]=k; Tprod[1]=5 Tprod[2]= 6; gives the position of the k1th product
-         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+        *  Tvard[k1][1]=m Tvard[k1][2]=m; Tvard[1][1]=5 (V5) Tvard[1][2]=6 Tvard[2][1]=7 (V7) Tvard[2][2]=8
-           if(j==i) continue;
+        *  Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
-           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+        *  Tvar[8+1]=5;Tvar[8+2]=6;Tvar[8+3]=7;Tvar[8+4]=8 inverted
-             jj++;
+        *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9  V10  V11
-             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
+        *  <          ncovcol=8                >
-             if(itimes==1){
+        *       Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8    d1   d1   d2  d2
-               if(mle>=1)
+        *          k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8    9   10   11  12
-                 printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+        *     Tvar[k]= 2    1      3       3    10      11      8        8    5    6    7   8
-               fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+        * p Tvar[1]@12={2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
-               fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+        * p Tprod[1]@2={                         6, 5}
-             }else{
+        *p Tvard[1][1]@4= {7, 8, 5, 6}
-               if(mle>=1)
+        * covar[k][i]= V2   V1      ?      V3    V5*V6?   V7*V8?  ?       V8
-                 printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+        *  cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
-               fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+        *How to reorganize?
-               fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+        * Model V1 + V2 + V3 + V8 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V3*age + V8*age
-             }
+        * Tvars {2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
-             ll=0;
+        *       {2,   1,     4,      8,    5,      6,     3,       7}
-             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
+        * Struct []
-               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
+        */
-                 if(lj==li) continue;
-                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
+       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
-                   ll++;
+       /* j is the number of + signs in the model V1+V2+V3 j=2 i=3 to 1 */
-                   if(ll<=jj){
+       /*   modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4  */
-                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
+       /*        k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tage[cptcovage=1]=4 */
-                     if(ll<jj){
+       /*        k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4) */
-                       if(itimes==1){
+       /*        k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1) */
-                         if(mle>=1)
+       /*        k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2) */
-                           printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+       /*        k=5 Tvar[5] */
-                         fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+       /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) { */
-                         fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+       /*        cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
-                       }else{
+       /*        } */
-                         if(mle>=1)
+       /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k])]]*cov[2]; */
-                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+       /*
-                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+        * Treating invertedly V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is as if written V2*V4 +V3*age + V1 + V2 */
-                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+       for(k=cptcovt; k>=1;k--) /**< Number of covariates */
-                       }
+         Tvar[k]=0;
-                     }else{
+       cptcovage=0;
-                       if(itimes==1){
+       for(k=1; k<=cptcovt;k++){ /* Loop on total covariates of the model */
-                         if(mle>=1)
+         cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+'
-                           printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+                                          modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */
-                         fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
-                         fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
-                       }else{
+         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
-                         if(mle>=1)
+         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
-                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+           cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc  Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
-                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
-                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+             /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
-                       }
+             cptcovprod--;
-                     }
+             cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
-                   }
+             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);  /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2; V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1 */
-                 } /* end lk */
+             cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
-               } /* end lj */
+             Tage[cptcovage]=k;  /* Tvar[4]=3, Tage[1] = 4 or V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1, Tage[1]=2 */
-             } /* end li */
+             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
-             if(mle>=1)
+           } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
-               printf("\n");
+             cptcovprod--;
-             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
-             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
-             numlinepar++;
+             cptcovage++;
-           } /* end k*/
+             Tage[cptcovage]=k;
-         } /*end j */
+           } else {  /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2  strb=V3*V2*/
-       } /* end i */
+             /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
-     } /* end itimes */
+             cptcovn++;
+             cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
-     fflush(ficlog);
+             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
-     fflush(ficres);
+             Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
+                                    because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+                                    ncovcol + k1
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+                                    If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+                                    Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
-       puts(line);
+             cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
+             Tprod[k1]=k;  /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2  */
-     }
+             Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+             Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
+             k2=k2+2;
-     estepm=0;
+             Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
-     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
+             Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];  /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
-     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
+             for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
-     if (fage <= 2) {
+               /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
-       bage = ageminpar;
+                  covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
-       fage = agemaxpar;
+               covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
-     }
+             }
+           } /* End age is not in the model */
-     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
+         } /* End if model includes a product */
-     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+         else { /* no more sum */
-     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
+           /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+           cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+           ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+           cptcovn++;
-       puts(line);
+           Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
+         }
-     }
+         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
+           scanf("%d",i);*/
-     fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
+       } /* end of loop + on total covariates */
-     fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
+     } /* end if strlen(modelsave == 0) age*age might exist */
-     fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
+   } /* end if strlen(model == 0) */
-     printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
+   /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
+     If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+   /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
-       puts(line);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
-     }
+   scanf("%d ",i);*/
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+   return (0); /* with covar[new additional covariate if product] and Tage if age */
-     dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
+   /*endread:*/
-     dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
+     printf("Exiting decodemodel: ");
+     return (1);
-     fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
+ }
-     fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
-     fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
+ int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
+ {
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+   int i, m;
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
-       puts(line);
+     for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
+       if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
-     }
+         anint[m][i]=9999;
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+         s[m][i]=-1;
+       }
-     fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
+       if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
-     fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+         *nberr = *nberr + 1;
-     printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+         printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
-     fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+         s[m][i]=-1;
-     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
+       }
+       if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
+         (*nberr)++;
+         printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]);
-     /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]);
-     /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
+         s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
+       }
-     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
+     }
-     printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+   }
-     printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
+   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
-                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
+     agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
-                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
+     for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
+       if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
-    /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
+         if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
-    /*  chdir(path); */
+           if(agedc[i]>0){
+             if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999){
-     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
+               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
-     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+           /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
-     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+             }else {
-     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+               if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
-     free_lvector(num,1,n);
+                 nbwarn++;
-     free_vector(agedc,1,n);
+                 printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
-     /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
+                 fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
-     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
+                 agev[m][i]=-1;
-     fclose(ficparo);
+               }
-     fclose(ficres);
+             }
+           } /* agedc > 0 */
+         }
-     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
+         else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
+                                  years but with the precision of a month */
-     strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
+           agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
-     strcat(filerespl,fileres);
+           if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
-     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
+             agev[m][i]=1;
-       printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
+           else if(agev[m][i] < *agemin){
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
+             *agemin=agev[m][i];
-     }
+             printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemin);
-     printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
+           }
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
+           else if(agev[m][i] >*agemax){
-     pstamp(ficrespl);
+             *agemax=agev[m][i];
-     fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
+             /* printf(" Max anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemax);*/
-     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
+           }
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
+           /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
-     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+           /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
+         }
-     prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+         else { /* =9 */
+           agev[m][i]=1;
-     agebase=ageminpar;
+           s[m][i]=-1;
-     agelim=agemaxpar;
+         }
-     ftolpl=1.e-10;
+       }
-     i1=cptcoveff;
+       else /*= 0 Unknown */
-     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+         agev[m][i]=1;
+     }
-     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+   }
-         k=k+1;
+   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
-         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
+     for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
-         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
+       if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
-         printf("\n#******");
+         (*nberr)++;
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
+         printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);
-           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+         return 1;
-           printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+       }
-           fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+     }
-         }
+   }
-         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
-         printf("******\n");
+   /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
-         fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+   for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
+      printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
-         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
+ }
-           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
-           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
+ }*/
-           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-             fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+   printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax);
-             fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax);
-           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
-         }
+   return (0);
-       }
+  /* endread:*/
-     }
+     printf("Exiting calandcheckages: ");
-     fclose(ficrespl);
+     return (1);
+ }
-     /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
+ #if defined(_MSC_VER)
-     strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
+ /*printf("Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
-     if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
+ /*fprintf(ficlog, "Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
-       printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
+ //#include "stdafx.h"
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
+ //#include <stdio.h>
-     }
+ //#include <tchar.h>
-     printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
+ //#include <windows.h>
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
+ //#include <iostream>
+ typedef BOOL(WINAPI *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS) (HANDLE, PBOOL);
-     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
-     /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
+ LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
-     agelim=AGESUP;
+ BOOL IsWow64()
-     hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+ {
-     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+         BOOL bIsWow64 = FALSE;
-     /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
+         //typedef BOOL (APIENTRY *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
-     pstamp(ficrespij);
+         //  (HANDLE, PBOOL);
-     fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
-     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+         //LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
-         k=k+1;
+         HMODULE module = GetModuleHandle(_T("kernel32"));
-         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
+         const char funcName[] = "IsWow64Process";
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+         fnIsWow64Process = (LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
-           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+                 GetProcAddress(module, funcName);
-         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
+         if (NULL != fnIsWow64Process)
-         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+         {
-           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+                 if (!fnIsWow64Process(GetCurrentProcess(),
-           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
+                         &bIsWow64))
+                         //throw std::exception("Unknown error");
-           /*      nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
+                         printf("Unknown error\n");
+         }
-           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+         return bIsWow64 != FALSE;
-           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+ }
-           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+ #endif
-           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
-             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+  {
-               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
+    /* #include "syscompilerinfo.h"*/
-           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
+    /* command line Intel compiler 32bit windows, XP compatible:*/
-           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+    /* /GS /W3 /Gy
-             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
+       /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O2 /Fd"Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" /D "NDEBUG" /D
-             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_USING_V110_SDK71_" /D "_UNICODE" /D
-               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+       "UNICODE" /Qipo /Zc:forScope /Gd /Oi /MT /Fa"Release\" /EHsc /nologo
-                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+       /Fo"Release\" /Qprof-dir "Release\" /Fp"Release\IMaCh.pch"
-             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
+    */
-           }
+    /* 64 bits */
-           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+    /*
-           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
+      /GS /W3 /Gy
-         }
+      /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O2 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" /D "NDEBUG"
-       }
+      /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo /Zc:forScope
-     }
+      /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir
+      "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch" */
-     varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
+    /* Optimization are useless and O3 is slower than O2 */
+    /*
-     fclose(ficrespij);
+      /GS /W3 /Gy /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O3 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32"
+      /D "NDEBUG" /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo
-     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+      /Zc:forScope /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo /Qparallel
-     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
+      /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch"
-       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
+    */
-         for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
+    /* Link is */ /* /OUT:"visual studio
-           probs[i][j][k]=0.;
+\Projects\IMaCh\Release\IMaCh.exe" /MANIFEST /NXCOMPAT
+       /PDB:"visual studio
-     /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
+\Projects\IMaCh\Release\IMaCh.pdb" /DYNAMICBASE
-     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
+       "kernel32.lib" "user32.lib" "gdi32.lib" "winspool.lib"
-     if(prevfcast==1){
+       "comdlg32.lib" "advapi32.lib" "shell32.lib" "ole32.lib"
-       /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
+       "oleaut32.lib" "uuid.lib" "odbc32.lib" "odbccp32.lib"
-       prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
+       /MACHINE:X86 /OPT:REF /SAFESEH /INCREMENTAL:NO
-       /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
+       /SUBSYSTEM:CONSOLE",5.01" /MANIFESTUAC:"level='asInvoker'
-       /*      }  */
+       uiAccess='false'"
-       /*      else{ */
+       /ManifestFile:"Release\IMaCh.exe.intermediate.manifest" /OPT:ICF
-       /*        erreur=108; */
+       /NOLOGO /TLBID:1
-       /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
+    */
-       /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
+ #if defined __INTEL_COMPILER
-       /*      } */
+ #if defined(__GNUC__)
-     }
+         struct utsname sysInfo;  /* For Intel on Linux and OS/X */
+ #endif
+ #elif defined(__GNUC__)
-     /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
+ #ifndef  __APPLE__
+ #include <gnu/libc-version.h>  /* Only on gnu */
-     strcpy(filerest,"t");
+ #endif
-     strcat(filerest,fileres);
+    struct utsname sysInfo;
-     if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
+    int cross = CROSS;
-       printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
+    if (cross){
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
+            printf("Cross-");
-     }
+            if(logged) fprintf(ficlog, "Cross-");
-     printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+    }
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+ #endif
+ #include <stdint.h>
-     strcpy(filerese,"e");
-     strcat(filerese,fileres);
+    printf("Compiled with:");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog,"Compiled with:");
-     if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
+ #if defined(__clang__)
-       printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
+    printf(" Clang/LLVM");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Clang/LLVM");       /* Clang/LLVM. ---------------------------------------------- */
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
+ #endif
-     }
+ #if defined(__ICC) || defined(__INTEL_COMPILER)
-     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+    printf(" Intel ICC/ICPC");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Intel ICC/ICPC");/* Intel ICC/ICPC. ------------------------------------------ */
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+ #endif
+ #if defined(__GNUC__) || defined(__GNUG__)
-     strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
+    printf(" GNU GCC/G++");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," GNU GCC/G++");/* GNU GCC/G++. --------------------------------------------- */
-     strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
+ #endif
-     if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
+ #if defined(__HP_cc) || defined(__HP_aCC)
-       printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
+    printf(" Hewlett-Packard C/aC++");if(logged)fprintf(fcilog," Hewlett-Packard C/aC++"); /* Hewlett-Packard C/aC++. ---------------------------------- */
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
+ #endif
-     }
+ #if defined(__IBMC__) || defined(__IBMCPP__)
-     printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+    printf(" IBM XL C/C++"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," IBM XL C/C++");/* IBM XL C/C++. -------------------------------------------- */
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+ #endif
+ #if defined(_MSC_VER)
-     strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
+    printf(" Microsoft Visual Studio");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Microsoft Visual Studio");/* Microsoft Visual Studio. --------------------------------- */
-     strcat(filerescve,fileres);
+ #endif
-     if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
+ #if defined(__PGI)
-       printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
+    printf(" Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");/* Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP. ------------------------------- */
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
+ #endif
-     }
+ #if defined(__SUNPRO_C) || defined(__SUNPRO_CC)
-     printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+    printf(" Oracle Solaris Studio");if(logged)fprintf(ficlog," Oracle Solaris Studio\n");/* Oracle Solaris Studio. ----------------------------------- */
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+ #endif
+    printf(" for "); if (logged) fprintf(ficlog, " for ");
-     strcpy(fileresv,"v");
-     strcat(fileresv,fileres);
+ // http://stackoverflow.com/questions/4605842/how-to-identify-platform-compiler-from-preprocessor-macros
-     if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
+ #ifdef _WIN32 // note the underscore: without it, it's not msdn official!
-       printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
+     // Windows (x64 and x86)
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
+    printf("Windows (x64 and x86) ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Windows (x64 and x86) ");
-     }
+ #elif __unix__ // all unices, not all compilers
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+     // Unix
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+    printf("Unix ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Unix ");
+ #elif __linux__
-     /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
+     // linux
-     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+    printf("linux ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"linux ");
-     /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
+ #elif __APPLE__
-         ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     // Mac OS, not sure if this is covered by __posix__ and/or __unix__ though..
-     */
+    printf("Mac OS ");if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Mac OS ");
+ #endif
-     if (mobilav!=0) {
-       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+ /*  __MINGW32__   */
-       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+ /*  __CYGWIN__   */
-         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+ /* __MINGW64__  */
-         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+ // http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/b0084kay.aspx
-       }
+ /* _MSC_VER  //the Visual C++ compiler is 17.00.51106.1, the _MSC_VER macro evaluates to 1700. Type cl /?  */
-     }
+ /* _MSC_FULL_VER //the Visual C++ compiler is 15.00.20706.01, the _MSC_FULL_VER macro evaluates to 150020706 */
+ /* _WIN64  // Defined for applications for Win64. */
-     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+ /* _M_X64 // Defined for compilations that target x64 processors. */
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+ /* _DEBUG // Defined when you compile with /LDd, /MDd, and /MTd. */
-         k=k+1;
-         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
+ #if UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffff
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+    printf(" 32-bit"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," 32-bit");/* 32-bit */
-           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+ #elif UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffffffffffff
-         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
+    printf(" 64-bit"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," 64-bit");/* 64-bit */
+ #else
-         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
+    printf(" wtf-bit"); if(logged) fprintf(ficlog," wtf-bit");/* wtf */
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
+ #endif
-         fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+ #if defined(__GNUC__)
-           fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+ # if defined(__GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
-           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+ #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
-           fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+                             + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100 \
-         }
+                             + __GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
-         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
+ # else
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
+ #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
-         fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
+                             + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100)
+ # endif
-         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
+    printf(" using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+    if(logged) fprintf(ficlog, " using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
-           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
+    if (uname(&sysInfo) != -1) {
+      printf("Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
-         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+          if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n ",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+    }
-         evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);
+    else
-         cvevsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
+       perror("uname() error");
+    //#ifndef __INTEL_COMPILER
-         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+ #if !defined (__INTEL_COMPILER) && !defined(__APPLE__)
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+    printf("GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version());
-         varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav, strstart);
+    if(logged) fprintf(ficlog,"GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version());
-         if(popbased==1){
+ #endif
-           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav, strstart);
+ #endif
-         }
+    //   void main()
-         pstamp(ficrest);
+    //   {
-         fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n# Age ( e.. (std) ");
+ #if defined(_MSC_VER)
-         for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
+    if (IsWow64()){
-         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+            printf("\nThe program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
+            if (logged) fprintf(ficlog, "\nThe program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
-         epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
+    }
-         for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
+    else{
-           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
+            printf("\nThe program is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
-           if (popbased==1) {
+            if (logged) fprintf(ficlog, "\nThe programm is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
-             if(mobilav ==0){
+    }
-               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    //      printf("\nPress Enter to continue...");
-                 prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
+    //      getchar();
-             }else{ /* mobilav */
+    //   }
-               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-                 prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
+ #endif
-             }
-           }
+  }
-           fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
-           for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
+ int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar){
-             for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
+   /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
-               epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
+   int i, j, k, i1 ;
-               /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+   double ftolpl = 1.e-10;
-             }
+   double age, agebase, agelim;
-             epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
-           }
+     strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
+     strcat(filerespl,fileres);
-           for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
+     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
-             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
+       printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
-               vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
-           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+     }
-           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
+     printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
-             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
-           }
+     pstamp(ficrespl);
-           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+     fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
-         }
+     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
-         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
-         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
-         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
-       }
+     /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
-     }
-     free_vector(weight,1,n);
+     agebase=ageminpar;
-     free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
+     agelim=agemaxpar;
-     free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
-     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+     i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-     free_ivector(cod,1,n);
-     free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
+     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-     fclose(ficreseij);
+     /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */
-     fclose(ficresstdeij);
+       //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
-     fclose(ficrescveij);
+         k=k+1;
-     fclose(ficresvij);
+         /* to clean */
-     fclose(ficrest);
+         //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtabm(cptcod,cptcov));
-     fclose(ficpar);
+         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
+         printf("\n#******");
-     /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
+         fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-     strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
+           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-     strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
+           printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
+           fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-       printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
+         }
-       exit(0);
+         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
-     }
+         printf("******\n");
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
-     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+         fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-         k=k+1;
+           fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
+         }
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
-           fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
-         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
+         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
-         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+         /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
-         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
+           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
-         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-       }
+             fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-     }
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+             fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
-     fclose(ficresvpl);
+           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+         } /* Age */
-     /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
+         /* was end of cptcod */
-     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     } /* cptcov */
-     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+         return 0;
+ }
-   }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
-   free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+ int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){
-     free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
-     free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
-     free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+   int stepsize;
-     free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+   int agelim;
-     free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
+   int hstepm;
-     free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
+   int nhstepm;
-     /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
+   int h, i, i1, j, k;
-     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
-     free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
+   double agedeb;
-     free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+   double ***p3mat;
-     free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
+     strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
-     free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
+     if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
-     free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
+       printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
-     free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
-     free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
+     }
-     free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
+     printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
-     free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
-     free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10);
+     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
-   fflush(fichtm);
+     /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
-   fflush(ficgp);
+     agelim=AGESUP;
+     hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
-   if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
+     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
-     printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
+     /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
-   }else{
+     pstamp(ficrespij);
-     printf("End of Imach\n");
+     fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
-     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
+     i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
-   }
+    /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
-   printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
+    /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
-   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
+    /*   k=k+1;  */
-   (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
+     for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
-   tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
+       fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
-   tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-   strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
+         fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-   printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend);
+       fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend);
-   printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
+       for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
-   printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
+         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
+         /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
-   /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
- /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
+         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
+         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-   fclose(fichtm);
+         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
+         fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
-   fclose(fichtmcov);
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-   fclose(ficgp);
+           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
-   fclose(ficlog);
+             fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
-   /*------ End -----------*/
+         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
+         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+           /*agedebphstep = agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm;*/
-    printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+           fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
-    if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-     printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
+             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
-   if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
+               fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
-     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
-   /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
+         }
-   sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
+         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
- #ifndef UNIX
+         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
-   sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
+       }
- #endif
+       /*}*/
-   if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
+     }
-     printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+         return 0;
-     if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
+ }
-       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
-     }else
-       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+ /***********************************************/
- #ifdef UNIX
+ /**************** Main Program *****************/
-     strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
+ /***********************************************/
-     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
-       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+ int main(int argc, char *argv[])
-     }else
+ {
-       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+ #ifdef GSL
- #endif
+   const gsl_multimin_fminimizer_type *T;
-   }else
+   size_t iteri = 0, it;
-     strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+   int rval = GSL_CONTINUE;
+   int status = GSL_SUCCESS;
-   sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
+   double ssval;
-   printf("Starting graphs with: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+ #endif
+   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
-   if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
+   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;
-     printf("\n Problem with gnuplot\n");
-   }
+   int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;
-   printf(" Wait...");
+   int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
-   while (z[0] != 'q') {
+   int num_filled;
-     /* chdir(path); */
+   int itimes;
-     printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
+   int NDIM=2;
-     scanf("%s",z);
+   int vpopbased=0;
- /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
-     if (z[0] == 'e') {
+   char ca[32], cb[32];
-       printf("Starting browser with: %s",optionfilehtm);fflush(stdout);
+   /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
-       system(optionfilehtm);
+   /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
-     }
+   struct stat info;
-     else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
+   double agedeb=0.;
-     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
-   }
+   double ageminpar=AGEOVERFLOW,agemin=AGEOVERFLOW, agemaxpar=-AGEOVERFLOW, agemax=-AGEOVERFLOW;
-   end:
-   while (z[0] != 'q') {
+   double fret;
-     printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
+   double dum=0.; /* Dummy variable */
-     scanf("%s",z);
+   double ***p3mat;
-   }
+   double ***mobaverage;
- }
+   char line[MAXLINE];
+   char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE];
+   char model[MAXLINE], modeltemp[MAXLINE];
+   char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE];
+   char *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
+   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
+   int c,  h , cpt, c2;
+   int jl=0;
+   int i1, j1, jk, stepsize=0;
+   int count=0;
+   int *tab;
+   int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
+   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
+   int hstepm=0, nhstepm=0;
+   int agemortsup;
+   float  sumlpop=0.;
+   double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
+   double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
+   double bage=0, fage=110., age, agelim=0., agebase=0.;
+   double ftolpl=FTOL;
+   double **prlim;
+   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
+   double  *p;
+   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
+   double ***delti3; /* Scale */
+   double *delti; /* Scale */
+   double ***eij, ***vareij;
+   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
+   double *epj, vepp;
+   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
+   double **ximort;
+   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
+   int *dcwave;
+   char z[1]="c";
+   /*char  *strt;*/
+   char strtend[80];
+ /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
+ /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
+ /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
+ /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
+ /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
+   /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
+   rstart_time = time(NULL);
+   /*  (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);*/
+   start_time = *localtime(&rstart_time);
+   curr_time=start_time;
+   /*tml = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec);*/
+   /* strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tml)); */
+   strcpy(strstart,asctime(&start_time));
+ /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
+ /*  tp.tm_sec = tp.tm_sec +86400; */
+ /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec); */
+ /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
+ /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
+ /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
+ /*   tp.tm_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
+ /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
+ /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
+ /*  (void) time (&time_value);
+ *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
+ *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
+ *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
+ *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart);
+ */
+   nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
+   nbwarn=0;
+ #ifdef WIN32
+   _getcwd(pathcd, size);
+ #else
+   getcwd(pathcd, size);
+ #endif
+   syscompilerinfo(0);
+   printf("\nIMaCh version %s, %s\n%s",version, copyright, fullversion);
+   if(argc <=1){
+     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
+     fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
+     i=strlen(pathr);
+     if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
+       pathr[i-1]='\0';
+     i=strlen(pathr);
+     if(pathr[i-1]==' ') /* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
+       pathr[i-1]='\0';
+    for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
+       printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
+       while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
+       printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
+       strcpy (pathtot, val);
+       if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
+     }
+   }
+   else{
+     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
+   }
+   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
+   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
+     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
+   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
+   /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
+   printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
+   split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+   printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+  /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
+   /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
+   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+   printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+ #ifdef WIN32
+   _chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
+   if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
+ #else
+   chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
+   if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
+ #endif
+   printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+   strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
+   strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
+   if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
+     printf("Directory already exists (or can't create it) %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
+     /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
+     /* fclose(ficlog); */
+ /*     exit(1); */
+   }
+ /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
+ /*     perror("mkdir"); */
+ /*   } */
+   /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
+   /* Main Log file */
+   strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
+   strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
+   if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
+     printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
+     goto end;
+   }
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Version %s %s",version,fullversion);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
+  path=%s \n\
+  optionfile=%s\n\
+  optionfilext=%s\n\
+  optionfilefiname='%s'\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+   syscompilerinfo(1);
+   printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
+   fflush(ficlog);
+ /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
+ /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec,tmpout)); */
+   /* */
+   strcpy(fileres,"r");
+   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
+   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
+   /* Main ---------arguments file --------*/
+   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
+     printf("Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     /* goto end; */
+     exit(70);
+   }
+   strcpy(filereso,"o");
+   strcat(filereso,fileres);
+   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
+     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     goto end;
+   }
+   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+   numlinepar=0;
+     /* First parameter line */
+   while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
+     /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
+     if (line[0] == '#') {
+       numlinepar++;
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficlog);
+       continue;
+     }else
+       break;
+   }
+   if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\n", \
+                         title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass)) !=EOF){
+     if (num_filled != 5) {
+       printf("Should be 5 parameters\n");
+     }
+     numlinepar++;
+     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass);
+   }
+   /* Second parameter line */
+   while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
+     /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
+     if (line[0] == '#') {
+       numlinepar++;
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficlog);
+       continue;
+     }else
+       break;
+   }
+   if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"ftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n", \
+                         &ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate, &ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt)) !=EOF){
+     if (num_filled != 8) {
+       printf("Not 8\n");
+     }
+     printf("ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n",ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);
+   }
+   /* Third parameter line */
+   while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
+     /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
+     if (line[0] == '#') {
+       numlinepar++;
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficlog);
+       continue;
+     }else
+       break;
+   }
+   if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"model=1+age%[^.\n]\n", model)) !=EOF){
+     if (num_filled != 1) {
+       printf("ERROR %d: Model should be at minimum 'model=1+age.' %s\n",num_filled, line);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"ERROR %d: Model should be at minimum 'model=1+age.' %s\n",num_filled, line);
+       model[0]='\0';
+       goto end;
+     }
+     else{
+       if (model[0]=='+'){
+         for(i=1; i<=strlen(model);i++)
+           modeltemp[i-1]=model[i];
+       }
+       strcpy(model,modeltemp);
+     }
+     /* printf(" model=1+age%s modeltemp= %s, model=%s\n",model, modeltemp, model);fflush(stdout); */
+   }
+   /* fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=1+age+%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model); */
+   /* numlinepar=numlinepar+3; /\* In general *\/ */
+   /* printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model); */
+   if(model[strlen(model)-1]=='.') /* Suppressing leading dot in the model */
+     model[strlen(model)-1]='\0';
+   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
+   fflush(ficlog);
+   /* if(model[0]=='#'|| model[0]== '\0'){ */
+   if(model[0]=='#'){
+     printf("Error in 'model' line: model should start with 'model=1+age+' and end with '.' \n \
+  'model=1+age+.' or 'model=1+age+V1.' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age.' or \n \
+  'model=1+age+V1+V2.' or 'model=1+age+V1+V2+V1*V2.' etc. \n");          \
+     if(mle != -1){
+       printf("Fix the model line and run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n");
+       exit(1);
+     }
+   }
+   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+     numlinepar++;
+     if(line[1]=='q'){ /* This #q will quit imach (the answer is q) */
+       z[0]=line[1];
+     }
+     /* printf("****line [1] = %c \n",line[1]); */
+     fputs(line, stdout);
+     //puts(line);
+     fputs(line,ficparo);
+     fputs(line,ficlog);
+   }
+   ungetc(c,ficpar);
+   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
+   cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
+   /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
+      v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
+   */
+   if (strlen(model)>1)
+     ncovmodel=2+nbocc(model,'+')+1; /*Number of variables including intercept and age = cptcovn + intercept + age : v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes 5+2=7,age*age makes 3*/
+   else
+     ncovmodel=2; /* Constant and age */
+   nforce= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate; /* Number of forces ij from state i to j */
+   npar= nforce*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters like aij*/
+   if(npar >MAXPARM || nlstate >NLSTATEMAX || ndeath >NDEATHMAX || ncovmodel>NCOVMAX){
+     printf("Too complex model for current IMaCh: npar=(nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel=%d >= %d(MAXPARM) or nlstate=%d >= %d(NLSTATEMAX) or ndeath=%d >= %d(NDEATHMAX) or ncovmodel=(k+age+#of+signs)=%d(NCOVMAX) >= %d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Too complex model for current IMaCh: %d >=%d(MAXPARM) or %d >=%d(NLSTATEMAX) or %d >=%d(NDEATHMAX) or %d(NCOVMAX) >=%d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
+     fflush(stdout);
+     fclose (ficlog);
+     goto end;
+   }
+   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+   delti=delti3[1][1];
+   /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
+   if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
+     prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
+     printf(" You chose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+     fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+     fclose (ficparo);
+     fclose (ficlog);
+     goto end;
+     exit(0);
+   }
+   else if(mle==-3) { /* Main Wizard */
+     prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
+     printf(" You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+     fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
+     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+   }
+   else{
+     /* Read guessed parameters */
+     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       numlinepar++;
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficlog);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+       j=0;
+       for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+         if(jj==i) continue;
+         j++;
+         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
+         if ((i1 != i) || (j1 != jj)){
+           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
+ It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
+ run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
+           exit(1);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+         if(mle==1)
+           printf("%1d%1d",i,jj);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,jj);
+         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+           fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
+           if(mle==1){
+             printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+           }
+           else
+             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+           fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+         }
+         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+         numlinepar++;
+         if(mle==1)
+           printf("\n");
+         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+       }
+     }
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     /* Reads scales values */
+     p=param[1][1];
+     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       numlinepar++;
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficlog);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
+         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
+         if ( (i1-i) * (j1-j) != 0){
+           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
+           exit(1);
+         }
+         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+           fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
+           printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+           fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+           fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+         }
+         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+         numlinepar++;
+         printf("\n");
+         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+       }
+     }
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     /* Reads covariance matrix */
+     delti=delti3[1][1];
+     /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
+     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       numlinepar++;
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficlog);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
+       for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;
+     /* Scans npar lines */
+     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
+       count=fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d%1d",&i1,&j1,&jk);
+       if(count != 3){
+         printf("Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
+ This is probably because your covariance matrix doesn't \n  contain exactly %d lines corresponding to your model line '1+age+%s'.\n\
+ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",optionfile,numlinepar, i1,j1,jk, npar, model);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
+ This is probably because your covariance matrix doesn't \n  contain exactly %d lines corresponding to your model line '1+age+%s'.\n\
+ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",optionfile,numlinepar, i1,j1,jk, npar, model);
+         exit(1);
+       }else
+       if(mle==1)
+         printf("%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
+       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
+       for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
+         fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
+         if(mle==1){
+           printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+         fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+       }
+       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+       numlinepar++;
+       if(mle==1)
+         printf("\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+     }
+     /* End of read covariance matrix npar lines */
+     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
+       for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
+         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
+     if(mle==1)
+       printf("\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
+     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
+     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
+     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
+     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
+     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+     }
+     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
+   }    /* End of mle != -3 */
+   /*  Main data
+    */
+   n= lastobs;
+   num=lvector(1,n);
+   moisnais=vector(1,n);
+   annais=vector(1,n);
+   moisdc=vector(1,n);
+   andc=vector(1,n);
+   agedc=vector(1,n);
+   cod=ivector(1,n);
+   weight=vector(1,n);
+   for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
+   mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
+   anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
+   s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n); /* s[i][j] health state for wave i and individual j */
+   tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
+   ncodemax=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Number of code per covariate; if O and 1 only, 2**ncov; V1+V2+V3+V4=>16 */
+   ncodemaxwundef=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Number of code per covariate; if - 1 O and 1 only, 2**ncov; V1+V2+V3+V4=>16 */
+   /* Reads data from file datafile */
+   if (readdata(datafile, firstobs, lastobs, &imx)==1)
+     goto end;
+   /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
+     /*    modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4
+         k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tag[cptcovage=1]=4
+         k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4)
+         k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1)
+         k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2)
+     */
+   Tvar=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Was 15 changed to NCOVMAX. */
+   /*  V2+V1+V4+age*V3 is a model with 4 covariates (3 plus signs).
+       For each model-covariate stores the data-covariate id. Tvar[1]=2, Tvar[2]=1, Tvar[3]=4,
+       Tvar[4=age*V3] is 3 and 'age' is recorded in Tage.
+   */
+   /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
+     because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
+     ncovcol + k1
+     If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
+     Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 etc */
+   Tprod=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the position of a product */
+   /* Tprod[k1=1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
+      if  V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2   TProd[k1=2]=5 (V3*V2)
+   */
+   Tvaraff=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Unclear */
+   Tvard=imatrix(1,NCOVMAX,1,2); /* n=Tvard[k1][1]  and m=Tvard[k1][2] gives the couple n,m of the k1 th product Vn*Vm
+                             * For V3*V2 (in V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2), V3*V2 position is 2nd.
+                             * Tvard[k1=2][1]=3 (V3) Tvard[k1=2][2]=2(V2) */
+   Tage=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the covariate id of covariates associated with age: V2 + V1 + age*V4 + V3*age
+covariates (3 plus signs)
+                          Tage[1=V3*age]= 4; Tage[2=age*V4] = 3
+                       */
+ /* Main decodemodel */
+   if(decodemodel(model, lastobs) == 1)
+     goto end;
+   if((double)(lastobs-imx)/(double)imx > 1.10){
+     nbwarn++;
+     printf("Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx);
+   }
+     /*  if(mle==1){*/
+   if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights. We can have weights different from 1 but want no weight*/
+     for(i=1;i<=imx;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* changed to imx */
+   }
+     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
+   agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
+   if(calandcheckages(imx, maxwav, &agemin, &agemax, &nberr, &nbwarn) == 1)
+     goto end;
+   agegomp=(int)agemin;
+   free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
+   free_vector(annais,1,n);
+   /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+      free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
+   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
+   free_vector(andc,1,n);
+   /* */
+   wav=ivector(1,imx);
+   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   /* Concatenates waves */
+   concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
+   /* */
+   /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
+   nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
+   ncodemax[1]=1;
+   Ndum =ivector(-1,NCOVMAX);
+   if (ncovmodel-nagesqr > 2 ) /* That is if covariate other than cst, age and age*age */
+     tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
+   /* Nbcode gives the value of the lth modality of jth covariate, in
+      V2+V1*age, there are 3 covariates Tvar[2]=1 (V1).*/
+   /* 1 to ncodemax[j] is the maximum value of this jth covariate */
+   codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) */
+   /*printf(" codtab[1,1],codtab[100,10]=%d,%d\n", codtab[1][1],codtabm(100,10));*/
+   /* codtab gives the value 1 or 2 of the hth combination of k covariates (1 or 2).*/
+   h=0;
+   /*if (cptcovn > 0) */
+   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+           /**< codtab(h,k)  k   = codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) + 1
+            * For k=4 covariates, h goes from 1 to 2**k
+            * codtabm(h,k)=  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
+            *     h\k   1     2     3     4
+            *______________________________
+            *     1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1
+            *     2     2     1     1     1
+            *     3 i=2 1     2     1     1
+            *     4     2     2     1     1
+            *     5 i=3 1 i=2 1     2     1
+            *     6     2     1     2     1
+            *     7 i=4 1     2     2     1
+            *     8     2     2     2     1
+            *     9 i=5 1 i=3 1 i=2 1     2
+            *    10     2     1     1     2
+            *    11 i=6 1     2     1     2
+            *    12     2     2     1     2
+            *    13 i=7 1 i=4 1     2     2
+            *    14     2     1     2     2
+            *    15 i=8 1     2     2     2
+            *    16     2     2     2     2
+            */
+   for(h=1; h <=100 ;h++){
+     /* printf("h=%2d ", h); */
+      for(k=1; k <=10; k++){
+        /* printf("k=%d %d ",k,codtabm(h,k)); */
+        codtab[h][k]=codtabm(h,k);
+      }
+      /* printf("\n"); */
+   }
+   /* for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /\* scans any effective covariate *\/ */
+   /*   for(i=1; i <=pow(2,cptcoveff-k);i++){ /\* i=1 to 8/1=8; i=1 to 8/2=4; i=1 to 8/8=1 *\/  */
+   /*     for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){ /\* For each modality of this covariate ncodemax=2*\/ */
+   /*    for(cpt=1; cpt <=pow(2,k-1); cpt++){  /\* cpt=1 to 8/2**(3+1-1 or 3+1-3) =1 or 4 *\/  */
+   /*      h++; */
+   /*      if (h>m)  */
+   /*        h=1; */
+   /*      codtab[h][k]=j; */
+   /*      /\* codtab[12][3]=1; *\/ */
+   /*      /\*codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;*\/ */
+   /*      /\* printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d Tvar[k]=%d codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k],codtab[h][Tvar[k]]); *\/ */
+   /*    }  */
+   /*     } */
+   /*   } */
+   /* }  */
+   /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);
+      codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
+   /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){  */
+   /*    for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){ */
+   /*      printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff); */
+   /*    } */
+   /*    printf("\n"); */
+   /* } */
+   /*   scanf("%d",i);*/
+  free_ivector(Ndum,-1,NCOVMAX);
+   /* Initialisation of ----------- gnuplot -------------*/
+   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
+   if(mle==-3)
+     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
+   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
+   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
+   }
+   else{
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
+     //fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
+     fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
+   }
+   /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
+   /* Initialisation of --------- index.htm --------*/
+   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
+   if(mle==-3)
+     strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
+   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
+   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
+     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);
+     exit(0);
+   }
+   strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
+   strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
+   if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
+     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
+   }
+   else{
+   fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
+           optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
+   }
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
+ \n\
+ <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
+  <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
+  - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
+  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
+  - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
+  - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
+  - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
+           optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
+           optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
+           fileres,fileres,\
+           filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
+   fflush(fichtm);
+   strcpy(pathr,path);
+   strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
+ #ifdef WIN32
+   _chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
+ #else
+   chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
+ #endif
+   /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
+      and prints on file fileres'p'. */
+   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
+ Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
+ Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
+           imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
+   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+   /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
+      so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
+   p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
+   globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
+   /* For mortality only */
+   if (mle==-3){
+     ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
+     /*     ximort=gsl_matrix_alloc(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); */
+     cens=ivector(1,n);
+     ageexmed=vector(1,n);
+     agecens=vector(1,n);
+     dcwave=ivector(1,n);
+     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+       dcwave[i]=-1;
+       for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
+         if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
+           dcwave[i]=m;
+           /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
+           break;
+         }
+     }
+     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+       if (wav[i]>0){
+         ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
+         j=wav[i];
+         agecens[i]=1.;
+         if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
+           agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
+           cens[i]= 1;
+         }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
+           cens[i]= -1;
+         if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
+           cens[i]=0 ;
+       }
+       else cens[i]=-1;
+     }
+     for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
+       for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
+         ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     }
+     /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
+     /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
+ #ifdef GSL
+     printf("GSL optimization\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+ #else
+     printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+ #endif
+     strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort");
+     strcat(filerespow,fileres);
+     if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+     }
+ #ifdef GSL
+     fprintf(ficrespow,"# GSL optimization\n# iter -2*LL");
+ #else
+     fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
+ #endif
+     /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+         for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+         if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
+     */
+     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
+ #ifdef GSL
+     /* gsl starts here */
+     T = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_nmsimplex;
+     gsl_multimin_fminimizer *sfm = NULL;
+     gsl_vector *ss, *x;
+     gsl_multimin_function minex_func;
+     /* Initial vertex size vector */
+     ss = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
+     if (ss == NULL){
+       GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for ss", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
+     }
+     /* Set all step sizes to 1 */
+     gsl_vector_set_all (ss, 0.001);
+     /* Starting point */
+     x = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
+     if (x == NULL){
+       gsl_vector_free(ss);
+       GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for x", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
+     }
+     /* Initialize method and iterate */
+     /*     p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083; */
+     /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 0, 0.0268); */
+     /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 1, 0.083); */
+     gsl_vector_set(x, 0, p[1]);
+     gsl_vector_set(x, 1, p[2]);
+     minex_func.f = &gompertz_f;
+     minex_func.n = NDIM;
+     minex_func.params = (void *)&p; /* ??? */
+     sfm = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_alloc (T, NDIM);
+     gsl_multimin_fminimizer_set (sfm, &minex_func, x, ss);
+     printf("Iterations beginning .....\n\n");
+     printf("Iter. #    Intercept       Slope     -Log Likelihood     Simplex size\n");
+     iteri=0;
+     while (rval == GSL_CONTINUE){
+       iteri++;
+       status = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_iterate(sfm);
+       if (status) printf("error: %s\n", gsl_strerror (status));
+       fflush(0);
+       if (status)
+         break;
+       rval = gsl_multimin_test_size (gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm), 1e-6);
+       ssval = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm);
+       if (rval == GSL_SUCCESS)
+         printf ("converged to a local maximum at\n");
+       printf("%5d ", iteri);
+       for (it = 0; it < NDIM; it++){
+         printf ("%10.5f ", gsl_vector_get (sfm->x, it));
+       }
+       printf("f() = %-10.5f ssize = %.7f\n", sfm->fval, ssval);
+     }
+     printf("\n\n Please note: Program should be run many times with varying starting points to detemine global maximum\n\n");
+     gsl_vector_free(x); /* initial values */
+     gsl_vector_free(ss); /* inital step size */
+     for (it=0; it<NDIM; it++){
+       p[it+1]=gsl_vector_get(sfm->x,it);
+       fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[it]);
+     }
+     gsl_multimin_fminimizer_free (sfm); /* p *(sfm.x.data) et p *(sfm.x.data+1)  */
+ #endif
+ #ifdef POWELL
+      powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
+ #endif
+     fclose(ficrespow);
+     hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
+     for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
+       for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
+         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
+     printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
+     for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
+       for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){
+         printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
+       }
+       printf("\n ");
+     }
+     printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
+     for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
+       printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
+     }
+     lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
+     lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
+     tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
+     lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
+     for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
+       agemortsup=k;
+       if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
+     }
+     for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
+       lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
+     for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
+       lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
+       sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
+     }
+     tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
+     for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
+       /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
+       tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
+     }
+     printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
+     for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
+       printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
+     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
+     if(ageminpar == AGEOVERFLOW ||agemaxpar == AGEOVERFLOW){
+         printf("Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
+ This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
+ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
+ This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
+ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+     }else
+       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+     printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
+                      stepm, weightopt,\
+                      model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
+     free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
+     free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
+     free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
+ #ifdef GSL
+     free_ivector(cens,1,n);
+     free_vector(agecens,1,n);
+     free_ivector(dcwave,1,n);
+     free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
+ #endif
+   } /* Endof if mle==-3 mortality only */
+   /* Standard maximisation */
+   else{ /* For mle >=1 */
+     globpr=0;/* debug */
+     /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters */
+     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
+     printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
+     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
+       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
+     printf("\n");
+     globpr=1; /* again, to print the contributions */
+     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
+     printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
+     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
+       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
+     printf("\n");
+     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximisation */
+       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
+     }
+     /*--------- results files --------------*/
+     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
+     fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+         if (k != i) {
+           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
+           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
+           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
+           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+             printf("%12.7f ",p[jk]);
+             fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
+             fprintf(ficres,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
+             jk++;
+           }
+           printf("\n");
+           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+         }
+       }
+     }
+     if(mle!=0){
+       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
+       ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
+       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
+     }
+     printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n  It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
+     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+         if (k != i) {
+           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
+           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
+           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+             printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
+             fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
+             jk++;
+           }
+           printf("\n");
+           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+         }
+       }
+     }
+     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+         if (j!=i) {
+           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
+             fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+             jk++;
+           }
+           printf("\n");
+           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+         }
+       }
+     }
+     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+     if(mle>=1)
+       printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
+     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
+     /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
+     /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
+     /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
+     /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
+     /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
+     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
+     /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
+        even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
+     */
+     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
+       jj=0;
+       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+           if(j==i) continue;
+           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+             jj++;
+             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
+             if(itimes==1){
+               if(mle>=1)
+                 printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+               fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+               fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+             }else{
+               if(mle>=1)
+                 printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+               fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+               fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+             }
+             ll=0;
+             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
+               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
+                 if(lj==li) continue;
+                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
+                   ll++;
+                   if(ll<=jj){
+                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
+                     if(ll<jj){
+                       if(itimes==1){
+                         if(mle>=1)
+                           printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+                         fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+                         fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+                       }else{
+                         if(mle>=1)
+                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                       }
+                     }else{
+                       if(itimes==1){
+                         if(mle>=1)
+                           printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+                         fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+                         fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+                       }else{
+                         if(mle>=1)
+                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                       }
+                     }
+                   }
+                 } /* end lk */
+               } /* end lj */
+             } /* end li */
+             if(mle>=1)
+               printf("\n");
+             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+             numlinepar++;
+           } /* end k*/
+         } /*end j */
+       } /* end i */
+     } /* end itimes */
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     fflush(ficres);
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     estepm=0;
+     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
+     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
+     if (fage <= 2) {
+       bage = ageminpar;
+       fage = agemaxpar;
+     }
+     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
+     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+     /* Other stuffs, more or less useful */
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
+     fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
+     fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
+     printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
+     dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
+     fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
+     fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
+     fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
+     fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+     printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+     fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
+     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
+      /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
+     /* ,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2); */
+     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
+     if(ageminpar == AGEOVERFLOW ||agemaxpar == -AGEOVERFLOW){
+         printf("Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
+ This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
+ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
+ This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
+ Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+     }else
+       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+     printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
+                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
+                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
+    /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
+    /*  chdir(path); */
+     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
+     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     free_lvector(num,1,n);
+     free_vector(agedc,1,n);
+     /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
+     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
+     fclose(ficparo);
+     fclose(ficres);
+     /* Other results (useful)*/
+     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
+     /*#include "prevlim.h"*/  /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
+     prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+     prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+     fclose(ficrespl);
+ #ifdef FREEEXIT2
+ #include "freeexit2.h"
+ #endif
+     /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
+     /*#include "hpijx.h"*/
+     hPijx(p, bage, fage);
+     fclose(ficrespij);
+   /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
+     k=1;
+     varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
+     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
+       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
+         for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
+           probs[i][j][k]=0.;
+     /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
+     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
+     if(prevfcast==1){
+       /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
+       prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
+       /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
+       /*      }  */
+       /*      else{ */
+       /*        erreur=108; */
+       /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
+       /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
+       /*      } */
+     }
+     /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */
+     /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
+     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
+         ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     */
+     if (mobilav!=0) {
+       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+       }
+     }
+     /*---------- Health expectancies, no variances ------------*/
+     strcpy(filerese,"e");
+     strcat(filerese,fileres);
+     if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
+     }
+     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
+     for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
+         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+           fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
+         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+         evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);
+         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       /*}*/
+     }
+     fclose(ficreseij);
+     /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
+     strcpy(filerest,"t");
+     strcat(filerest,fileres);
+     if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
+     }
+     printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+     strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
+     strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
+     if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
+     }
+     printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+     strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
+     strcat(filerescve,fileres);
+     if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
+     }
+     printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+     strcpy(fileresv,"v");
+     strcat(fileresv,fileres);
+     if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
+     }
+     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
+     for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
+         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
+         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
+         fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+           fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
+         fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
+         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
+         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+         cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
+         /*
+          */
+         /* goto endfree; */
+         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+         pstamp(ficrest);
+         for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
+           oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
+           cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
+           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
+           fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
+           if(vpopbased==1)
+             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
+           else
+             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+           fprintf(ficrest,"# Age e.. (std) ");
+           for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
+           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+           /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
+           epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
+           for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
+             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k); /*ZZ Is it the correct prevalim */
+             if (vpopbased==1) {
+               if(mobilav ==0){
+                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                   prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
+               }else{ /* mobilav */
+                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                   prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
+               }
+             }
+             fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
+             /* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */
+             for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
+               for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
+                 epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
+                 /*ZZZ  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+                 /* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
+               }
+               epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
+             }
+             /* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */
+             for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
+               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
+                 vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
+             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
+               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+             }
+             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+           }
+         }
+         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
+       /*}*/
+     }
+     free_vector(weight,1,n);
+     free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
+     free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+     free_ivector(cod,1,n);
+     free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
+     fclose(ficresstdeij);
+     fclose(ficrescveij);
+     fclose(ficresvij);
+     fclose(ficrest);
+     fclose(ficpar);
+     /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
+     strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
+     strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
+     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
+       exit(0);
+     }
+     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
+     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
+     for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
+         fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+           fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
+         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
+         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       /*}*/
+     }
+     fclose(ficresvpl);
+     /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
+     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+   }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
+  /* endfree:*/
+     free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
+     free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
+     free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
+     /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
+     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+     free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
+     free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+     free_ivector(ncodemax,1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ivector(ncodemaxwundef,1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ivector(Tvar,1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ivector(Tprod,1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ivector(Tage,1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
+     free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10);
+   fflush(fichtm);
+   fflush(ficgp);
+   if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
+     printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
+   }else{
+     printf("End of Imach\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
+   }
+   printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
+   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
+   /*(void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);*/
+   rend_time = time(NULL);
+   end_time = *localtime(&rend_time);
+   /* tml = *localtime(&end_time.tm_sec); */
+   strcpy(strtend,asctime(&end_time));
+   printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend);
+   printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
+   printf("Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
+   /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
+ /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
+   fclose(fichtm);
+   fprintf(fichtmcov,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
+   fclose(fichtmcov);
+   fclose(ficgp);
+   fclose(ficlog);
+   /*------ End -----------*/
+    printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+ #ifdef WIN32
+    if (_chdir(pathcd) != 0)
+            printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
+    if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
+ #else
+    if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
+            printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n", path);
+    if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0)
+ #endif
+     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+   /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
+   sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
+ #ifdef _WIN32
+   sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
+ #endif
+   if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
+     printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+     if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
+       printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s' Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+     }else
+       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+ #ifdef __unix
+     strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
+     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
+       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+     }else
+       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+ #endif
+   }else
+     strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+   sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
+   printf("Starting graphs with: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+   if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
+     printf("gnuplot command might not be in your path: '%s', err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
+     printf("\n Trying if gnuplot resides on the same directory that IMaCh\n");
+     sprintf(plotcmd,"%sgnuplot %s", pathimach, optionfilegnuplot);
+     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0)
+       printf("\n Still a problem with gnuplot command %s, err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
+   }
+   printf(" Successful, please wait...");
+   while (z[0] != 'q') {
+     /* chdir(path); */
+     printf("\nType e to edit results with your browser, g to graph again and q for exit: ");
+     scanf("%s",z);
+ /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
+     if (z[0] == 'e') {
+ #ifdef __APPLE__
+       sprintf(pplotcmd, "open %s", optionfilehtm);
+ #elif __linux
+       sprintf(pplotcmd, "xdg-open %s", optionfilehtm);
+ #else
+       sprintf(pplotcmd, "%s", optionfilehtm);
+ #endif
+       printf("Starting browser with: %s",pplotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+       system(pplotcmd);
+     }
+     else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
+     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
+   }
+   end:
+   while (z[0] != 'q') {
+     printf("\nType  q for exiting: "); fflush(stdout);
+     scanf("%s",z);
+   }
+ }

FreeBSD-CVSweb <freebsd-cvsweb@FreeBSD.org>

Removed from v.1.125
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	Added in v.1.199