Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.19 and 1.96

version 1.19, 2002/02/20 17:19:10 version 1.96, 2003/07/15 15:38:55
Line 1 Line 1
      /* $Id$
 /*********************** Imach **************************************            $State$
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from cross-longitudinal    $Log$
   data. Cross-longitudinal consist in a first survey ("cross") where    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
   individuals from different ages are interviewed on their health status    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
   or degree of  disability. At least a second wave of interviews    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
   ("longitudinal") should  measure each new individual health status.  
   Health expectancies are computed from the transistions observed between    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
   waves and are computed for each degree of severity of disability (number    * imach.c (Repository):
   of life states). More degrees you consider, more time is necessary to    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
   reach the Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
   The simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is  
   the probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave conditional    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
   to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore the model is:    Just cleaning
   log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where 'age' is age and 'sex'  
   is a covariate. If you want to have a more complex model than "constant and    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
   age", you should modify the program where the markup    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
     *Covariates have to be included here again* invites you to do it.    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   More covariates you add, less is the speed of the convergence.    (Module): Version 0.96b
   
   The advantage that this computer programme claims, comes from that if the    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
   delay between waves is not identical for each individual, or if some    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
   individual missed an interview, the information is not rounded or lost, but    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   taken into account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
   hPijx is the probability to be    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
   observed in state i at age x+h conditional to the observed state i at age    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
   x. The delay 'h' can be split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
   unobserved intermediate  states. This elementary transition (by month or    helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
   quarter trimester, semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
   The hPx matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply hPijx.  
     Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
      of the covariance matrix to be input.
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).  
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   from the European Union.    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version  
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
   **********************************************************************/    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
    
 #include <math.h>    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
 #include <stdio.h>    Version 0.96
 #include <stdlib.h>  
 #include <unistd.h>    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
     (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
 #define MAXLINE 256    routine fileappend.
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80  
 /*#define DEBUG*/    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
 #define windows    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
     was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    interview.
     (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */    truncation)
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
 #define MAXN 20000  
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
 #define AGESUP 130    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
 #define AGEBASE 40    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
     many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
     parcimony.
 int nvar;    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;  
 int npar=NPARMAX;    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */    *** empty log message ***
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */  
 int ncovmodel, ncov;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
 int popbased=0;    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
   
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */  */
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */  /*
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */     Interpolated Markov Chain
 int mle, weightopt;  
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */    Short summary of the programme:
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf;    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
 FILE *ficgp, *fichtm,*ficresprob,*ficpop;    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
 FILE *ficreseij;    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
  FILE  *ficresvij;    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
  FILE  *ficresvpl;    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
     probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
 #define NR_END 1    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
 #define FREE_ARG char*    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
     complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
 #define NRANSI    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
 #define ITMAX 200    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
     convergence.
 #define TOL 2.0e-4  
     The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
     account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
 #define GOLD 1.618034  
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
     split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
      and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    hPijx.
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)  
     Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
 static double sqrarg;    of the life expectancies. It also computes the stable prevalence. 
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
              Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
 int imx;    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
 int stepm;    from the European Union.
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
     software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
 int m,nb;    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;  
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
 double dateintmean=0;    
     **********************************************************************/
 double *weight;  /*
 int **s; /* Status */    main
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    read parameterfile
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;    read datafile
     concatwav
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */    freqsummary
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    if (mle >= 1)
       mlikeli
 /**************** split *************************/    print results files
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name )    if mle==1 
 {       computes hessian
    char *s;                             /* pointer */    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */        begin-prev-date,...
     open gnuplot file
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */    open html file
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    stable prevalence
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */     for age prevalim()
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    h Pij x
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */    variance of p varprob
       extern char       *getwd( );    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
     health expectancies
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {    Variance-covariance of DFLE
 #else    prevalence()
       extern char       *getcwd( );     movingaverage()
     varevsij() 
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
 #endif    total life expectancies
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );    Variance of stable prevalence
       }   end
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */  */
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */  
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */  
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */  
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );   
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */  #include <math.h>
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */  #include <stdio.h>
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */  #include <stdlib.h>
    }  #include <unistd.h>
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */  
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }  #include <sys/time.h>
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */  #include <time.h>
 }  #include "timeval.h"
   
   /* #include <libintl.h> */
 /******************************************/  /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
   
 void replace(char *s, char*t)  #define MAXLINE 256
 {  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
   int i;  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
   int lg=20;  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
   i=0;  /*#define DEBUG*/
   lg=strlen(t);  /*#define windows*/
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
     (s[i] = t[i]);  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';  
   }  #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
 }  #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
   
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)  #define NINTERVMAX 8
 {  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
   int i,j=0;  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
   int lg=20;  #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
   i=0;  #define MAXN 20000
   lg=strlen(s);  #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  #define AGESUP 130
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;  #define AGEBASE 40
   }  #ifdef unix
   return j;  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
 }  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   #else
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
 {  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
   int i,lg,j,p=0;  #endif
   i=0;  
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {  /* $Id$ */
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;  /* $State$ */
   }  
   char version[]="Imach version 0.96c, July 2003, INED-EUROREVES ";
   lg=strlen(t);  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {  int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
     (u[j] = t[j]);  int nvar;
   }  int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
      u[p]='\0';  int npar=NPARMAX;
   int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);  int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
   }  int popbased=0;
 }  
   int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
 /********************** nrerror ********************/  int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
   int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
 void nrerror(char error_text[])  int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
 {                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");  int mle, weightopt;
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
   exit(1);  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
 }  int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
 /*********************** vector *******************/             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)  double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
 {  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
   double *v;  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
   return v-nl+NR_END;  int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
 }  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
   long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
 /************************ free vector ******************/  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
 {  FILE *ficresilk;
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
 }  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
   FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
 /************************ivector *******************************/  FILE *ficreseij;
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  FILE  *ficresvij;
   int *v;  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  FILE  *ficresvpl;
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
   return v-nl+NR_END;  char title[MAXLINE];
 }  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
   char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
 /******************free ivector **************************/  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  int  outcmd=0;
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  
 }  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;  
   int **m;  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
    
   /* allocate pointers to rows */  struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));  struct timezone tzp;
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  extern int gettimeofday();
   m += NR_END;  struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
   m -= nrl;  long time_value;
    extern long time();
    char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */  
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  #define NR_END 1
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  #define FREE_ARG char*
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  
    #define NRANSI 
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  #define ITMAX 200 
    
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
   return m;  
 }  #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
   #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)  
       int **m;  #define GOLD 1.618034 
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;  #define GLIMIT 100.0 
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));  #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
 }  #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
     
 /******************* matrix *******************************/  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
 {  
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;  static double sqrarg;
   double **m;  #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
   #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  int imx; 
   m += NR_END;  int stepm;
   m -= nrl;  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
   
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  int estepm;
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  int m,nb;
   long *num;
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;
   return m;  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
 }  double **pmmij, ***probs;
   double dateintmean=0;
 /*************************free matrix ************************/  
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  double *weight;
 {  int **s; /* Status */
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  double *agedc, **covar, idx;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
 }  
   double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/  double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)  
 {  /**************** split *************************/
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;  static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
   double ***m;  {
     char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  
   m += NR_END;    l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
   m -= nrl;    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
     ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");      /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
   m[nrl] += NR_END;        printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
   m[nrl] -= ncl;      /* get current working directory */
       /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
         return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));      }
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");      strcpy( name, path );               /* we've got it */
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;    } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
        strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;      dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    }
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
   }    /*#ifdef windows
   return m;    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
 }  #else
     if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/  #endif
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)    */
 {    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));    ss++;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    strcpy(ext,ss);                       /* save extension */
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));    l1= strlen( name);
 }    l2= strlen(ss)+1;
     strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
 /***************** f1dim *************************/    finame[l1-l2]= 0;
 extern int ncom;    return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;  }
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);  
    
 double f1dim(double x)  /******************************************/
 {  
   int j;  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
   double f;  {
   double *xt;    int i;
      int lg=0;
   xt=vector(1,ncom);    i=0;
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];    lg=strlen(t);
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);      (s[i] = t[i]);
   return f;      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
 }    }
   }
 /*****************brent *************************/  
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
 {  {
   int iter;    int i,j=0;
   double a,b,d,etemp;    int lg=20;
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;    i=0;
   double ftemp;    lg=strlen(s);
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   double e=0.0;    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
      }
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);    return j;
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);  }
   x=w=v=bx;  
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);  void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {  {
     xm=0.5*(a+b);    /* cuts string t into u and v where u is ended by char occ excluding it
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);       and v is after occ excluding it too : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",2)
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/       gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);    int i,lg,j,p=0;
 #ifdef DEBUG    i=0;
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);    for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */      if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
 #endif    }
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){  
       *xmin=x;    lg=strlen(t);
       return fx;    for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
     }      (u[j] = t[j]);
     ftemp=fu;    }
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {       u[p]='\0';
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);  
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);     for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;      if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
       q=2.0*(q-r);    }
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;  }
       q=fabs(q);  
       etemp=e;  /********************** nrerror ********************/
       e=d;  
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))  void nrerror(char error_text[])
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  {
       else {    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
         d=p/q;    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
         u=x+d;    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)  }
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);  /*********************** vector *******************/
       }  double *vector(int nl, int nh)
     } else {  {
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    double *v;
     }    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
     fu=(*f)(u);    return v-nl+NR_END;
     if (fu <= fx) {  }
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;  
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)  /************************ free vector ******************/
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
         } else {  {
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {  }
             v=w;  
             w=u;  /************************ivector *******************************/
             fv=fw;  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
             fw=fu;  {
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {    int *v;
             v=u;    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
             fv=fu;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
           }    return v-nl+NR_END;
         }  }
   }  
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");  /******************free ivector **************************/
   *xmin=x;  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
   return fx;  {
 }    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   }
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/  
   /************************lvector *******************************/
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
             double (*func)(double))  {
 {    long *v;
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
   double fu;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
      return v-nl+NR_END;
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);  }
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);  
   if (*fb > *fa) {  /******************free lvector **************************/
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)  {
       }    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);  }
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);  
   while (*fb > *fc) {  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/  { 
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);    int **m; 
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {    
       fu=(*func)(u);    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
       fu=(*func)(u);    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
       if (fu < *fc) {    m += NR_END; 
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))    m -= nrl; 
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))    
           }    
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
       u=ulim;    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
       fu=(*func)(u);    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
     } else {    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
       fu=(*func)(u);    
     }    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)    
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
       }    return m; 
 }  } 
   
 /*************** linmin ************************/  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
   void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
 int ncom;        int **m;
 double *pcom,*xicom;        long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
    { 
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
 {    free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,  } 
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);  
   double f1dim(double x);  /******************* matrix *******************************/
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));  {
   int j;    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;    double **m;
   double fx,fb,fa;  
      m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   ncom=n;    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
   pcom=vector(1,n);    m += NR_END;
   xicom=vector(1,n);    m -= nrl;
   nrfunc=func;  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     pcom[j]=p[j];    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
     xicom[j]=xi[j];    m[nrl] += NR_END;
   }    m[nrl] -= ncl;
   ax=0.0;  
   xx=1.0;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);    return m;
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) 
 #ifdef DEBUG     */
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);  }
 #endif  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  /*************************free matrix ************************/
     xi[j] *= xmin;  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
     p[j] += xi[j];  {
   }    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);  }
 }  
   /******************* ma3x *******************************/
 /*************** powell ************************/  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,  {
             double (*func)(double []))    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
 {    double ***m;
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,  
               double (*func)(double []));    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   int i,ibig,j;    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;    m += NR_END;
   double fp,fptt;    m -= nrl;
   double *xits;  
   pt=vector(1,n);    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   ptt=vector(1,n);    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
   xit=vector(1,n);    m[nrl] += NR_END;
   xits=vector(1,n);    m[nrl] -= ncl;
   *fret=(*func)(p);  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {  
     fp=(*fret);    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
     ibig=0;    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
     del=0.0;    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
     printf("\n");    
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
       fptt=(*fret);      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
 #ifdef DEBUG        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);    }
 #endif    return m; 
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {    */
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));  }
         ibig=i;  
       }  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
 #ifdef DEBUG  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));  {
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
       }  }
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);  /*************** function subdirf ***********/
       printf("\n");  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
 #endif  {
     }    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
 #ifdef DEBUG    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
       int k[2],l;    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       k[0]=1;    return tmpout;
       k[1]=-1;  }
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));  
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
       printf("\n");  {
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {    
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);    strcat(tmpout,"/");
         }    strcat(tmpout,preop);
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       }    return tmpout;
 #endif  }
   
   /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
       free_vector(xit,1,n);  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
       free_vector(xits,1,n);  {
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);    
       free_vector(pt,1,n);    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       return;    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
     }    strcat(tmpout,"/");
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");    strcat(tmpout,preop);
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];    return tmpout;
       pt[j]=p[j];  }
     }  
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);  /***************** f1dim *************************/
     if (fptt < fp) {  extern int ncom; 
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
       if (t < 0.0) {  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);   
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  double f1dim(double x) 
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];  { 
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];    int j; 
         }    double f;
 #ifdef DEBUG    double *xt; 
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);   
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
         printf("\n");    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
 #endif    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
       }    return f; 
     }  } 
   }  
 }  /*****************brent *************************/
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/  { 
     int iter; 
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)    double a,b,d,etemp;
 {    double fu,fv,fw,fx;
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit    double ftemp;
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
     double e=0.0; 
   int i, ii,j,k;   
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;    a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
   double **matprod2();    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();    x=w=v=bx; 
   double **newm;    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
       xm=0.5*(a+b); 
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
     }      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
   #ifdef DEBUG
    cov[1]=1.;      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
        fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){  #endif
     newm=savm;      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */        *xmin=x; 
      cov[2]=agefin;        return fx; 
        } 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {      ftemp=fu;
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
         /*printf("ij=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf\n",ij, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k]);*/        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
       }        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];        q=2.0*(q-r); 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];        q=fabs(q); 
         etemp=e; 
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/        e=d; 
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
           d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);        else { 
           d=p/q; 
     savm=oldm;          u=x+d; 
     oldm=newm;          if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
     maxmax=0.;            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){        } 
       min=1.;      } else { 
       max=0.;        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {      } 
         sumnew=0;      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];      fu=(*f)(u); 
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);      if (fu <= fx) { 
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
       }          SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
       maxmin=max-min;          } else { 
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);            if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
     }            if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){              v=w; 
       return prlim;              w=u; 
     }              fv=fw; 
   }              fw=fu; 
 }            } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
               v=u; 
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/              fv=fu; 
             } 
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )          } 
 {    } 
   double s1, s2;    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
   /*double t34;*/    *xmin=x; 
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;    return fx; 
   } 
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];              double (*func)(double)) 
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  { 
       }    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
       ps[i][j]=s2;    double fu; 
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/   
     }    *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){    if (*fb > *fa) { 
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/        SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
       }        } 
       ps[i][j]=(s2);    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
     }    *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
   }    while (*fb > *fc) { 
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
       q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
      s1=0;        (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)        fu=(*func)(u); 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);        fu=(*func)(u); 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)        if (fu < *fc) { 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)            SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];            } 
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
   } /* end i */        u=ulim; 
         fu=(*func)(u); 
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){      } else { 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
       ps[ii][jj]=0;        fu=(*func)(u); 
       ps[ii][ii]=1;      } 
     }      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
   }        SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
         } 
   } 
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  /*************** linmin ************************/
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);  
    }  int ncom; 
     printf("\n ");  double *pcom,*xicom;
     }  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/   
 /*  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);  { 
   goto end;*/    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
     return ps;                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
 }    double f1dim(double x); 
     void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/                double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
     int j; 
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
 {    double fx,fb,fa;
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times   
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */    ncom=n; 
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized    pcom=vector(1,n); 
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns    xicom=vector(1,n); 
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */    nrfunc=func; 
   long i, j, k;    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)      xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)    } 
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];    ax=0.0; 
     xx=1.0; 
   return out;    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
 }    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
   #ifdef DEBUG
     printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
   #endif
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
 {      xi[j] *= xmin; 
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month      p[j] += xi[j]; 
      duration (i.e. until    } 
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.    free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).  } 
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be  
      included manually here.  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
   {
      */    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
     days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
   int i, j, d, h, k;    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
   double **newm;    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
     minutes = (sec_left) /60;
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)    sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    return ascdiff;
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  }
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  
     }  /*************** powell ************************/
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){              double (*func)(double [])) 
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){  { 
       newm=savm;    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */                double (*func)(double [])); 
       cov[1]=1.;    int i,ibig,j; 
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];    double fp,fptt;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)    double *xits;
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];    int niterf, itmp;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];    pt=vector(1,n); 
     ptt=vector(1,n); 
     xit=vector(1,n); 
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/    xits=vector(1,n); 
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/    *fret=(*func)(p); 
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
       savm=oldm;      fp=(*fret); 
       oldm=newm;      ibig=0; 
     }      del=0.0; 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      last_time=curr_time;
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {      (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
          */      fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
       }      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
   } /* end h */        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
   return po;        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
 }        fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
       }
       printf("\n");
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
 double func( double *x)      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
 {      if(*iter <=3){
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;        tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tmf));
   double **out;  /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */        forecast_time=curr_time;
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
   long ipmx;        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')
   /*extern weight */          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)        for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);          forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
   */          tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
   cov[1]=1.;  /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
           strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;          itmp = strlen(strfor);
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){          if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s or\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s or\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        }
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){      }
         newm=savm;      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {        fptt=(*fret); 
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];  #ifdef DEBUG
         }        printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
                fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  #endif
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
         savm=oldm;        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
         oldm=newm;        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
                if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
                  del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
       } /* end mult */          ibig=i; 
              } 
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);  #ifdef DEBUG
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
       ipmx +=1;        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
       sw += weight[i];        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
     } /* end of wave */          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
   } /* end of individual */          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
         }
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */          printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */          fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
   return -l;        }
 }        printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   #endif
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/      } 
       if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))  #ifdef DEBUG
 {        int k[2],l;
   int i,j, iter;        k[0]=1;
   double **xi,*delti;        k[1]=-1;
   double fret;        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
   printf("Powell\n");        }
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);        printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f ",iter,func(p));          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
             ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
 }            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/          }
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
 {          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;        }
   double **hess;  #endif
   int i, j,jk;  
   int *indx;  
         free_vector(xit,1,n); 
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);        free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;        return; 
       } 
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);        pt[j]=p[j]; 
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);      } 
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/      fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/      if (fptt < fp) { 
   }        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
          if (t < 0.0) { 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       if (j>i) {            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);            xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);          }
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];      #ifdef DEBUG
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
       }          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
     }          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
   }            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
   printf("\n");            fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
           }
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");          printf("\n");
            fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  #endif
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        }
   x=vector(1,npar);      } 
   indx=ivector(1,npar);    } 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)  } 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];  
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);  /**** Prevalence limit (stable prevalence)  ****************/
   
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;  {
     x[j]=1;    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);       matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];    int i, ii,j,k;
     }    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
   }    double **matprod2();
     double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");    double **newm;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {    double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     }      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     printf("\n");        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   }      }
   
   /* Recompute Inverse */     cov[1]=1.;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)   
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
       newm=savm;
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
        cov[2]=agefin;
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {    
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
     x[j]=1;          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);          /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        }
       y[i][j]=x[i];        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
     }          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
     printf("\n");  
   }        /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
   */        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
         /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);  
   free_vector(x,1,npar);      savm=oldm;
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);      oldm=newm;
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);      maxmax=0.;
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
         min=1.;
 }        max=0.;
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/          sumnew=0;
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
 {          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
   int i;          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
   int l=1, lmax=20;          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
   double k1,k2;        }
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];        maxmin=max-min;
   double res;        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;      }
   double fx;      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
   int k=0,kmax=10;        return prlim;
   double l1;      }
     }
   fx=func(x);  }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
     l1=pow(10,l);  
     delts=delt;  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){  {
       delt = delta*(l1*k);    double s1, s2;
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;    /*double t34;*/
       k1=func(p2)-fx;    int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;  
       k2=func(p2)-fx;      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */      for(j=1; j<i;j++){
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */        for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
                /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
 #ifdef DEBUG          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);          /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
 #endif        }
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */        ps[i][j]=s2;
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){        /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
         k=kmax;      }
       }      for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */        for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
       }          /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){        }
         delts=delt;        ps[i][j]=s2;
       }      }
     }    }
   }      /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
   delti[theta]=delts;  
   return res;    for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
         s1=0;
 }      for(j=1; j<i; j++)
         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)      for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
 {        s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
   int i;      ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;      for(j=1; j<i; j++)
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];      for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
   int k;        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
       /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
   fx=func(x);    } /* end i */
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {  
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];    for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;      for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;        ps[ii][jj]=0;
     k1=func(p2)-fx;        ps[ii][ii]=1;
        }
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;    }
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;  
     k2=func(p2)-fx;  
      /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;      for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;       printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);
     k3=func(p2)-fx;     }
        printf("\n ");
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;      }
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;      printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
     k4=func(p2)-fx;  /*
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */    for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
 #ifdef DEBUG    goto end;*/
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);      return ps;
 #endif  }
   }  
   return res;  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
 }  
   double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/  {
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)    /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
 {       b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
   int i,imax,j,k;    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
   double big,dum,sum,temp;       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
   double *vv;       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
      long i, j, k;
   vv=vector(1,n);    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
   *d=1.0;      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {        for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
     big=0.0;          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;    return out;
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");  }
     vv[i]=1.0/big;  
   }  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {  
       sum=a[i][j];  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];  {
       a[i][j]=sum;    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
     }       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
     big=0.0;       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
       sum=a[i][j];       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];       for the memory).
       a[i][j]=sum;       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {       included manually here. 
         big=dum;  
         imax=i;       */
       }  
     }    int i, j, d, h, k;
     if (j != imax) {    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {    double **newm;
         dum=a[imax][k];  
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
         a[j][k]=dum;    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
       }      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       *d = -(*d);        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       vv[imax]=vv[j];        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     }      }
     indx[j]=imax;    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;    for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
     if (j != n) {      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);        newm=savm;
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
     }        cov[1]=1.;
   }        cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
 ;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
 }          cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
 {  
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;  
   double sum;        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
          /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
     ip=indx[i];                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     sum=b[ip];        savm=oldm;
     b[ip]=b[i];        oldm=newm;
     if (ii)      }
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
     else if (sum) ii=i;        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
     b[i]=sum;          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
   }          /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {           */
     sum=b[i];        }
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    } /* end h */
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];    return po;
   }  }
 }  
   
 /************ Frequencies ********************/  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2)  double func( double *x)
 {  /* Some frequencies */  {
      int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */    double **out;
   double *pp;    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
   FILE *ficresp;    int s1, s2;
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];    double bbh, survp;
     long ipmx;
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);    /*extern weight */
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);    */
     exit(0);    cov[1]=1.;
   }  
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   j1=0;  
     if(mle==1){
   j=cptcoveff;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
        j1++;              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
          scanf("%d", i);*/            }
         for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)            for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)              newm=savm;
            for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
              freq[i][jk][m]=0;            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         dateintsum=0;            }
         k2cpt=0;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
          bool=1;            savm=oldm;
          if  (cptcovn>0) {            oldm=newm;
            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)          } /* end mult */
              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])        
                bool=0;          /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
          }          /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm.
          if (bool==1) {           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
              if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the
                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;           * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];           * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];           * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {           * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
                  k2cpt++;           */
                }          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
              }          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
            }          /* bias is positive if real duration
          }           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
        }           */
         if  (cptcovn>0) {          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known then the contribution
        fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");               to the likelihood is the probability to die between last step unit time and current 
         }               step unit time, which is also the differences between probability to die before dh 
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)               and probability to die before dh-stepm . 
          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
                  health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
   for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
     if(i==(int)agemax+3)          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
       printf("Total");          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
     else          introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
       printf("Age %d", i);          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
       for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          and month of death but the probability to survive from last
     }          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
       for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
         pos += freq[jk][m][i];          mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
       if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)          which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);          lower mortality.
       else            */
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
     }          }else{
             lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
      for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
       for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          } 
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
      }          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
           /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
     for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)          ipmx +=1;
       pos += pp[jk];          sw += weight[i];
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
       if(pos>=1.e-5)        } /* end of wave */
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);      } /* end of individual */
       else    }  else if(mle==2){
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       if( i <= (int) agemax){        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         if(pos>=1.e-5){        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
           fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
           probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         }              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       else            }
           fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
       }            newm=savm;
     }            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);            }
     if(i <= (int) agemax)            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
       fprintf(ficresp,"\n");                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     printf("\n");            savm=oldm;
     }            oldm=newm;
     }          } /* end mult */
  }        
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
            s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
   fclose(ficresp);          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);          ipmx +=1;
           sw += weight[i];
   /* End of Freq */          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
 }        } /* end of wave */
       } /* end of individual */
 /************ Prevalence ********************/    }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
 void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
 {  /* Some frequencies */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
          for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   double *pp;              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   double pos, k2;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             }
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);            newm=savm;
              cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   j1=0;              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
              }
   j=cptcoveff;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
              savm=oldm;
  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){            oldm=newm;
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){          } /* end mult */
       j1++;        
            s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)            s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)            bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;          ipmx +=1;
                sw += weight[i];
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         bool=1;        } /* end of wave */
         if  (cptcovn>0) {      } /* end of individual */
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
               bool=0;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         }        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         if (bool==1) {          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;            }
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-1/12.)] += weight[i];            newm=savm;
               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3+1)] += weight[i];              cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
           }              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         }            }
       }          
                  out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            savm=oldm;
             for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)            oldm=newm;
               pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          } /* end mult */
           }        
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
             for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
         }            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
                  }else{
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          }
              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          ipmx +=1;
          }          sw += weight[i];
                    ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
          for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
         } /* end of wave */
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){                } /* end of individual */
            if( i <= (int) agemax){    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
              if(pos>=1.e-5){      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
              }        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
            }          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
          }            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         }              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     }            }
   }          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
              newm=savm;
              cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
              }
 }  /* End of Freq */          
             out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
             savm=oldm;
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)            oldm=newm;
 {          } /* end mult */
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.        
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.          ipmx +=1;
      */          sw += weight[i];
           ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   int i, mi, m;          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;        } /* end of wave */
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/      } /* end of individual */
     } /* End of if */
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
   double sum=0.;    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
   jmin=1e+5;    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
   jmax=-1;    return -l;
   jmean=0.;  }
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){  
     mi=0;  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
     m=firstpass;  double funcone( double *x)
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){  {
       if(s[m][i]>=1)    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
         mw[++mi][i]=m;    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
       if(m >=lastpass)    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
         break;    double **out;
       else    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
         m++;    double llt;
     }/* end while */    int s1, s2;
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){    double bbh, survp;
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */    /*extern weight */
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
          /* Only death is a correct wave */    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
       mw[mi][i]=m;    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
     }      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
     */
     wav[i]=mi;    cov[1]=1.;
     if(mi==0)  
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   }  
     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
       if (stepm <=0)        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
         dh[mi][i]=1;          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       else{            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {          }
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */          newm=savm;
           k=k+1;          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
           sum=sum+j;          }
           /* if (j<10) printf("j=%d num=%d ",j,i); */          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
           }                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
         }          savm=oldm;
         else{          oldm=newm;
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));        } /* end mult */
           k=k+1;        
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           /*   if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
           sum=sum+j;        /* bias is positive if real duration
         }         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
         jk= j/stepm;         */
         jl= j -jk*stepm;        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
         if(jl <= -ju)        } else if (mle==1){
           dh[mi][i]=jk;          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
         else        } else if(mle==2){
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
       }        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
     }          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
   }        } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
   jmean=sum/k;          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);        } /* End of if */
  }        ipmx +=1;
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/        sw += weight[i];
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
 {  /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;        if(globpr){
   int cptcode=0;          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %1d %1d %1d %1d %3d %10.6f %6.4f\
   cptcoveff=0;   %10.6f %10.6f %10.6f ", \
                    num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
             llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {          }
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
       Ndum[ij]++;        }
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/      } /* end of wave */
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;    } /* end of individual */
     }    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
     /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
     }      gipmx=ipmx;
     ij=1;      gsw=sw;
     }
     return -l;
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {  }
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {  
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {  
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;  /*************** function likelione ***********/
           ij++;  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
         }  {
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
       }         the selection of individuals/waves and
     }       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
   }         Plotting could be done.
      */
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;    int k;
   
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
       ij=Tvar[i];      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
       Ndum[ij]++;      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
     }      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
  ij=1;        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {      }
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncov)){      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
      ij++;      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
    }      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
  }        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
     cptcoveff=ij-1;    }
 }  
     *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/    if(*globpri !=0){
       fclose(ficresilk);
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
 {      fflush(fichtm); 
   /* Health expectancies */    } 
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;    return;
   double age, agelim,hf;  }
   double ***p3mat;  
    
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");  /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");  
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  {
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);    int i,j, iter;
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    double **xi;
     double fret;
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /*  Every j years of age (in month) */    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
     xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   agelim=AGESUP;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
     /* Typically if 20 years = 20*12/6=40 stepm */    strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically 40/4=10 */    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */    }
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);      fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
     for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){  
           eij[i][j][(int)age] +=p3mat[i][j][h];    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
         }  
        fclose(ficrespow);
     hf=1;    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%.0f",age );    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){  }
         fprintf(ficreseij," %.4f", hf*eij[i][j][(int)age]);  
       }  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  {
   }    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
 }    double **hess;
     int i, j,jk;
 /************ Variance ******************/    int *indx;
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)  
 {    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);
   /* Variance of health expectancies */    double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
   double **newm;    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
   double **dnewm,**doldm;  
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   int k, cptcode;  
   double *xp;    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
   double **gp, **gm;    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
   double ***p3mat;      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
   double age,agelim;      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
   int theta;      hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);
       /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/
    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");      /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");    }
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");        if (j>i) { 
           printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
   xp=vector(1,npar);          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
            /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */        }
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */      }
   agelim = AGESUP;    }
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */    printf("\n");
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;  
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);    
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);    a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);    y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     x=vector(1,npar);
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    indx=ivector(1,npar);
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
       }    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);    
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
       if (popbased==1) {      x[j]=1;
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
       }        matcov[i][j]=x[i];
            }
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){    }
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){  
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)    printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
         }    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
       }      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
            printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      }
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);        printf("\n");
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     }
       if (popbased==1) {  
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    /* Recompute Inverse */
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       }      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
     ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)  
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
         }      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
       }      x[j]=1;
       lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        y[i][j]=x[i];
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
         }        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
     } /* End theta */      }
       printf("\n");
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     }
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)    */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
     free_vector(x,1,npar);
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;  
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){  
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){  }
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);  
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)  {
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];    int i;
       }    int l=1, lmax=20;
     }    double k1,k2;
     h=1;    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
     if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;    double res;
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );    double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    double fx;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){    int k=0,kmax=10;
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);    double l1;
       }  
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");    fx=func(x);
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);    for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);      l1=pow(10,l);
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      delts=delt;
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
   } /* End age */        delt = delta*(l1*k);
          p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);        k1=func(p2)-fx;
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);        k2=func(p2)-fx;
         /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
 }        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
         
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/  #ifdef DEBUG
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
 {        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */  #endif
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
   double **newm;        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
   double **dnewm,**doldm;          k=kmax;
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;        }
   int k, cptcode;        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
   double *xp;          k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
   double *gp, *gm;        }
   double **gradg, **trgradg;        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
   double age,agelim;          delts=delt;
   int theta;        }
          }
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");    }
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");    delti[theta]=delts;
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    return res; 
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);    
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");  }
   
   xp=vector(1,npar);  double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  {
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    int i;
      int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
   agelim = AGESUP;    int k;
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */    fx=func(x);
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);      k1=func(p2)-fx;
     
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      k2=func(p2)-fx;
       }    
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];      k3=func(p2)-fx;
        
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);      k4=func(p2)-fx;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];  #ifdef DEBUG
       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];  #endif
     } /* End theta */    }
     return res;
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  }
   
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];  { 
     int i,imax,j,k; 
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double big,dum,sum,temp; 
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;    double *vv; 
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);   
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);    vv=vector(1,n); 
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    *d=1.0; 
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
       big=0.0; 
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);    } 
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);      for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);        sum=a[i][j]; 
   } /* End age */        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
         a[i][j]=sum; 
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      } 
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      big=0.0; 
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
         sum=a[i][j]; 
 }        for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
           sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/        a[i][j]=sum; 
 void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
 {          big=dum; 
   int i, j;          imax=i; 
   int k=0, cptcode;        } 
   double **dnewm,**doldm;      } 
   double *xp;      if (j != imax) { 
   double *gp, *gm;        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
   double **gradg, **trgradg;          dum=a[imax][k]; 
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];          a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
   int theta;          a[j][k]=dum; 
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];        } 
         *d = -(*d); 
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");        vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);      } 
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {      indx[j]=imax; 
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
   }      if (j != n) { 
   printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
          for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
       } 
   xp=vector(1,npar);    } 
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);    free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));  ;
    } 
   cov[1]=1;  
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){  void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
     cov[2]=age;  { 
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
     trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);    double sum; 
     gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));   
     gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
          ip=indx[i]; 
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      sum=b[ip]; 
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)      b[ip]=b[i]; 
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      if (ii) 
              for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);      else if (sum) ii=i; 
          b[i]=sum; 
       k=0;    } 
       for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      sum=b[i]; 
            k=k+1;      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
           gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
         }    } 
       }  } 
   
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)  /************ Frequencies ********************/
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint)
      {  /* Some frequencies */
     
       pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);    int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
       k=0;    int first;
       for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){    double *pp, **prop;
           k=k+1;    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
           gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];    FILE *ficresp;
         }    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
       }    
          pp=vector(1,nlstate);
        for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
            gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];      strcpy(fileresp,"p");
     }    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
     if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
       trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];      exit(0);
      }
      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);    freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);    j1=0;
     
      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);    j=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
      k=0;  
      for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){    first=1;
        for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  
          k=k+1;    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
          gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
         }        j1++;
      }        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
                scanf("%d", i);*/
      /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);        for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
                    for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
               freq[i][jk][m]=0;
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));  
      }*/      for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);          prop[i][m]=0;
         
   for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){        dateintsum=0;
     if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);        k2cpt=0;
 if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
   }          bool=1;
           if  (cptcovn>0) {
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);                bool=0;
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);          }
 }          if (bool==1){
  free_vector(xp,1,npar);            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
 fclose(ficresprob);              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
  exit(0);              /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
 }                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
                 if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
 /***********************************************/                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
 /**************** Main Program *****************/                if (m<lastpass) {
 /***********************************************/                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
 /*int main(int argc, char *argv[])*/                }
 int main()                
 {                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
                   dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;                  k2cpt++;
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;                }
   double agemin=1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;                /*}*/
             }
   double fret;          }
   double **xi,tmp,delta;        }
          
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
   double ***p3mat;  
   int *indx;        if  (cptcovn>0) {
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   char title[MAXLINE];          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];        }
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];        
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */          if(i==iagemax+3){
   int c,  h , cpt,l;            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
   int ju,jl, mi;          }else{
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;            if(first==1){
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;              first=0;
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;              printf("See log file for details...\n");
   int hstepm, nhstepm;            }
   int *popage;/*boolprev=0 if date and zero if wave*/            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2;          }
           for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;            for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
   double ftolpl=FTOL;              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
   double **prlim;          }
   double *severity;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
   double  *p;              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */              if(first==1){
   double *delti; /* Scale */              printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
   double ***eij, ***vareij;              }
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
   double *epj, vepp;            }else{
   double kk1, kk2;              if(first==1)
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean, calagedate;              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   double yp,yp1,yp2;            }
           }
   char version[80]="Imach version 64b, May 2001, INED-EUROREVES ";  
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
             for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
               pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
   char z[1]="c", occ;          }       
 #include <sys/time.h>          for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
 #include <time.h>            pos += pp[jk];
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];            posprop += prop[jk][i];
            }
   /* long total_usecs;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;            if(pos>=1.e-5){
                if(first==1)
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
               fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
             }else{
   printf("\nIMACH, Version 0.7");              if(first==1)
   printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
               fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
 #ifdef windows            }
   scanf("%s",pathtot);            if( i <= iagemax){
   getcwd(pathcd, size);              if(pos>=1.e-5){
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
               }
 split(pathtot, path,optionfile);              else
   chdir(path);                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
   replace(pathc,path);            }
 #endif          }
 #ifdef unix          
   scanf("%s",optionfile);          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
 #endif            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
               if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/              if(first==1)
                 printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
   strcpy(fileres,"r");                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
   strcat(fileres, optionfile);              }
           if(i <= iagemax)
   /*---------arguments file --------*/            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
           if(first==1)
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {            printf("Others in log...\n");
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     goto end;        }
   }      }
     }
   strcpy(filereso,"o");    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
   strcat(filereso,fileres);   
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {    fclose(ficresp);
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;    free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
   }    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    /* End of Freq */
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  /************ Prevalence ********************/
     puts(line);  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
     fputs(line,ficparo);  {  
   }    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
   ungetc(c,ficpar);       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
        We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncov, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);    */
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);   
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncov,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);    int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    double *pp, **prop;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    double pos,posprop; 
     puts(line);    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
     fputs(line,ficparo);    int iagemin, iagemax;
   }  
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    iagemin= (int) agemin;
      iagemax= (int) agemax;
        /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
   cptcovn=0;    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;    j1=0;
     
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;    j=cptcoveff;
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
      
   /* Read guess parameters */    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        j1++;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
     puts(line);          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     fputs(line,ficparo);            prop[i][m]=0.0;
   }       
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
            bool=1;
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);          if  (cptcovn>0) {
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);                bool=0;
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);          } 
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);          if (bool==1) { 
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);              if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
       }                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
       printf("\n");                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
     }                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                    prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;                } 
               }
   p=param[1][1];            } /* end selection of waves */
            }
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */        }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
     puts(line);            posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
     fputs(line,ficparo);          } 
   }  
   ungetc(c,ficpar);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
             if( i <=  iagemax){ 
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);              if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){              } 
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){            } 
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);          }/* end jk */ 
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);        }/* end i */ 
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);      } /* end i1 */
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){    } /* end k1 */
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);    
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
       }    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");  }  /* End of prevalence */
       printf("\n");  
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
     }  
   }  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
   delti=delti3[1][1];  {
      /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */       Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
     ungetc(c,ficpar);       dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
     puts(line);       */
     fputs(line,ficparo);  
   }    int i, mi, m;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
         double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);    int first;
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);    double sum=0.;
     printf("%s",str);    first=0;
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);    jmin=1e+5;
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){    jmax=-1;
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);    jmean=0.;
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);      mi=0;
     }      m=firstpass;
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
     printf("\n");        if(s[m][i]>=1)
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");          mw[++mi][i]=m;
   }        if(m >=lastpass)
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)          break;
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)        else
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];          m++;
          }/* end while */
   printf("\n");      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
         mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
         /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
     /*-------- data file ----------*/           /* Only death is a correct wave */
     if((ficres =fopen(fileres,"w"))==NULL) {        mw[mi][i]=m;
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileres);goto end;      }
     }  
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);      wav[i]=mi;
          if(mi==0){
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {        nbwarn++;
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;        if(first==0){
     }          printf("Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
           first=1;
     n= lastobs;        }
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);        if(first==1){
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
     num=ivector(1,n);        }
     moisnais=vector(1,n);      } /* end mi==0 */
     annais=vector(1,n);    } /* End individuals */
     moisdc=vector(1,n);  
     andc=vector(1,n);    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     agedc=vector(1,n);      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
     cod=ivector(1,n);        if (stepm <=0)
     weight=vector(1,n);          dh[mi][i]=1;
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */        else{
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);          if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);                  if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);              else if(j<0){
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);                nberr++;
                 printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
     i=1;                j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {                printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview.\n  You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                        fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview.\n  You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){              }
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);              k=k+1;
           strcpy(line,stra);              if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              sum=sum+j;
         }              /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
                      /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            }
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);          }
           else{
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            /*      printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
             k=k+1;
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
         for (j=ncov;j>=1;j--){            else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
         }            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
         num[i]=atol(stra);            if(j<0){
                      nberr++;
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
             }
         i=i+1;            sum=sum+j;
       }          }
     }          jk= j/stepm;
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);          jl= j -jk*stepm;
        scanf("%d",i);*/          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
             if(jl==0){
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){              dh[mi][i]=jk;
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;              bh[mi][i]=0;
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;                    * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
     }              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
               bh[mi][i]=ju;
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)            }
     if (covar[1][i]==0) printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/          }else{
             if(jl <= -ju){
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/              dh[mi][i]=jk;
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);                                   * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);                                   */
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);            }
   Tage=ivector(1,15);                  else{
                  dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
   if (strlen(model) >1){              bh[mi][i]=ju;
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;            }
     j=nbocc(model,'+');            if(dh[mi][i]==0){
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
     cptcovn=j+1;              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
     cptcovprod=j1;              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
                }
              } /* end if mle */
     strcpy(modelsav,model);        }
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){      } /* end wave */
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);    }
       goto end;    jmean=sum/k;
     }    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){   }
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');  
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/  {
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {    
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');    int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {    int cptcode=0;
           cptcovprod--;    cptcoveff=0; 
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');   
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);    for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
           cptcovage++;    for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;  
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
         }      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum 
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {                                 modality*/ 
           cptcovprod--;        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');        Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);        /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
           cptcovage++;        if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable 
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;                                         Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and 
         }                                         female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
         else {      }
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');  
           Tvar[i]=ncov+k1;      for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');        if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
           Tprod[k1]=i;      }
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);  
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);      ij=1; 
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];      for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];        for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)          if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
             covar[ncov+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];            nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
           k1++;            /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
           k2=k2+2;            
         }            ij++;
       }          }
       else {          if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/        }  
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/      } 
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');    }  
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);  
       }   for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);    
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);   for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { 
         scanf("%d",i);*/     /* Listing of all covariables in staement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
     }     ij=Tvar[i];
 }     Ndum[ij]++;
     }
   /*printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);  
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);   ij=1;
   scanf("%d ",i);*/   for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
     fclose(fic);     if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
        Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
     /*  if(mle==1){*/       ij++;
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/     }
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;   }
     }   
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/   cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);  }
   
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++)  
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){  void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )
          anint[m][i]=9999;  
          s[m][i]=-1;  {
        }    /* Health expectancies */
        int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {    double age, agelim, hf;
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);    double ***p3mat,***varhe;
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){    double **dnewm,**doldm;
         if(s[m][i] >0){    double *xp;
           if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {    double **gp, **gm;
             if(agedc[i]>0)    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)    int theta;
               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];  
             else {    varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
               if (andc[i]!=9999){    xp=vector(1,npar);
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
               agev[m][i]=-1;    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
               }    
             }    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
           }    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)        fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
               agev[m][i]=1;    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){  
               agemin=agev[m][i];    if(estepm < stepm){
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
             }    }
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){    else  hstepm=estepm;   
               agemax=agev[m][i];    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
             }     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
           }     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
           else { /* =9 */     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
             agev[m][i]=1;     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
             s[m][i]=-1;     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
           }     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
         }  
         else /*= 0 Unknown */    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
           agev[m][i]=1;    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
       }       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
           nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
     }       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");         means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
           goto end;       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
         }       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
       }    */
     }    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
   
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);    agelim=AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);      /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
     free_vector(annais,1,n);      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
       gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
      
     wav=ivector(1,imx);      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
       
     /* Concatenates waves */  
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
   
       /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);  
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
       ncodemax[1]=1;        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
              }
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
    h=0;    
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);        cptj=0;
          for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){            cptj=cptj+1;
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){            for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){              gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
            h++;            }
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;          }
          }        }
        }       
      }       
    }        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) 
              xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */        
         cptj=0;
            for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
              for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */            cptj=cptj+1;
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */            for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */              gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */            }
                }
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]        }
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */        for(j=1; j<= nlstate*nlstate; j++)
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
             gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
     if(mle==1){          }
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);       } 
     }     
      /* End theta */
     /*--------- results files --------------*/  
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
    
        for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
    jk=1;        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
    printf("# Parameters\n");            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){       
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){  
        if (k != i)       for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
          {        for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);          varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);  
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
              jk++;        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
            }          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
            printf("\n");          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");          for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
          }            for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
      }              varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
    }        }
  if(mle==1){      }
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */      /* Computing expectancies */
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
  }          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales\n");            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
     printf("# Scales\n");            
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){  /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){  
         if (j!=i) {          }
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);  
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){      cptj=0;
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
             jk++;          cptj++;
           }          fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );
           printf("\n");        }
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
         }     
       }      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
      }      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
          free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     k=1;      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     printf("# Covariance\n");    }
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){    printf("\n");
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;  
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
       printf("%3d",i);    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){  }
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);  
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);  /************ Variance ******************/
       }  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav)
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");  {
       printf("\n");    /* Variance of health expectancies */
       k++;    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
     }    /* double **newm;*/
        double **dnewm,**doldm;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
       ungetc(c,ficpar);    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    int k, cptcode;
       puts(line);    double *xp;
       fputs(line,ficparo);    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
     }    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
      double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
        double ***p3mat;
     if (fage <= 2) {    double age,agelim, hf;
       bage = agemin;    double ***mobaverage;
       fage = agemax;    int theta;
     }    char digit[4];
     char digitp[25];
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy.\n");  
     char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);  
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);    if(popbased==1){
        if(mobilav!=0)
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    }
     puts(line);    else 
     fputs(line,ficparo);      strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
   }  
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    if (mobilav!=0) {
        mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mob_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);      if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mob_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
  fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mob_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
            }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
     puts(line);    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
     fputs(line,ficparo);    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
   }    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
      strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
     if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
    dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
    dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
     }
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
    fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);      fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
    fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     puts(line);        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
     fputs(line,ficparo);    }  
   }    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
 fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
 fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);  /*   } */
     varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2);  
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");
  /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
 chdir(pathcd);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   if((ficgp=fopen("graph.plt","w"))==NULL) {      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
     printf("Problem with file graph.gp");goto end;        fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
   }    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
 #ifdef windows  
   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);    xp=vector(1,npar);
 #endif    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
      dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
  /* 1eme*/    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {  
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
 #ifdef windows    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
 #endif    
 #ifdef unix    if(estepm < stepm){
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
 #endif    }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
 }       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {       and note for a fixed period like k years */
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
 }       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    */
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
 }      agelim = AGESUP;
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
 #ifdef unix      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
 #endif      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
    }      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   }      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   /*2 eme*/  
   
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
              xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {        }
       k=2*i;        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {  
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");        if (popbased==1) {
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          if(mobilav ==0){
 }              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");          }
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");        }
 }      
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {            for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          }
 }          }
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     }           as a weighted average of prlim.
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);        */
   }        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
            for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
   /*3eme*/            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }    
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {        /* end probability of death */
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {  
       k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
       }   
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        if (popbased==1) {
     }          if(mobilav ==0){
   }            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
   /* CV preval stat */          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
       k=3;          }
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemax,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);        }
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)  
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
                  for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);          }
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {        }
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
       }           as a weighted average of prlim.
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);          */
       fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     }          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
   }             gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }    
   /* proba elementaires */        /* end probability of death */
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){  
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
       if (k != i) {          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s%1d%1d=%f ",alph[j],i,k,p[jk]);*/          }
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s",alph[1]);*/  
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
           jk++;          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");        }
         }  
       }      } /* End theta */
     }  
     }      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
   
   for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemax);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
    i=1;          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
    for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
      k3=i;  
      for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
        if (k != k2){        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
         fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
 ij=1;    
         for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {  
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
             ij++;        for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
           }          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
           else  
           fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
         }        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
           fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
                  matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
         for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){            for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
 ij=1;              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
           for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){        }
           if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {      }
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);    
             ij++;      /* pptj */
           }      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           else      matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
             fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           }        for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
           fprintf(ficgp,")");          varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
         }      /* end ppptj */
         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);      /*  x centered again */
         if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         i=i+ncovmodel;      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
        }   
      }      if (popbased==1) {
    }        if(mobilav ==0){
    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk);          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   }            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
            }else{ /* mobilav */ 
   fclose(ficgp);          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
 chdir(path);        }
          }
     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);               
     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);           computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
     free_ivector(num,1,n);         as a weighted average of prlim.
     free_vector(agedc,1,n);      */
     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     fclose(ficparo);        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
     fclose(ficres);          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
     /*  }*/      }    
          /* end probability of death */
    /*________fin mle=1_________*/  
          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
     /* No more information from the sample is required now */        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      } 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);      fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
   }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
            fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
   fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);        }
   printf("agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax, bage, fage);      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
   fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {    } /* End age */
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);goto end;    free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   }    free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
  fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> <font size=\"6\">Imach, Version 0.7 </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">    free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
 Titre=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
 Total number of observations=%d <br>    /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>    fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
 <li>Outputs files<br><br>\n  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
         - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
 - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>    fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
         - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
         - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>    /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
         - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>  */
         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>  /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
         - Prevalences and population forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
 <br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);  
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
  fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
  m=cptcoveff;    free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}    free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
  j1=0;    if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    fflush(ficgp);
        j1++;    fflush(fichtm); 
        if (cptcovn > 0) {  }  /* end varevsij */
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");  
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)  /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[j1][cpt]]);  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");  {
        }    /* Variance of prevalence limit */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
 <img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);        double **newm;
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){    double **dnewm,**doldm;
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);    int k, cptcode;
        }    double *xp;
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {    double *gp, *gm;
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident    double **gradg, **trgradg;
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>    double age,agelim;
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);      int theta;
      }     
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of stable prevalences \n");
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>    fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
      }        fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>  
 <img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);    xp=vector(1,npar);
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
    }    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
  }    
 fclose(fichtm);    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/    agelim = AGESUP;
      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);      if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
   }      gp=vector(1,nlstate);
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);      gm=vector(1,nlstate);
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");  
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
          }
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */      
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   k=0;        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   agebase=agemin;        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   agelim=agemax;          gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
   ftolpl=1.e-10;  
   i1=cptcoveff;        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
       } /* End theta */
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){  
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){      trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
         k=k+1;  
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)          trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);  
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);  
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");      fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
         }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       }        fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
     }      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   fclose(ficrespl);      free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
       free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/      free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
        free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);    } /* End age */
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {  
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
   }    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
    
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;  }
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/  
   /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
   agelim=AGESUP;  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */  {
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
      int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
   k=0;    int k=0,l, cptcode;
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    int first=1, first1;
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
       k=k+1;    double **dnewm,**doldm;
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");    double *xp;
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    double *gp, *gm;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    double **gradg, **trgradg;
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");    double **mu;
            double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */    int theta;
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);    
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");    double ***varpij;
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    }
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
           }      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    }
         }    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
     }    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
   }    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
   /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     }
   fclose(ficrespij);    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
   calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
   prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);goto end;    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
   }    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);  
   
   free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);        fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
   /* Mobile average */        fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;      }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
   if (mobilav==1) {    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
     for (agedeb=bage+3; agedeb<=fage-2; agedeb++)   */
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)   xp=vector(1,npar);
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)    dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;    doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
        mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
     for (agedeb=bage+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){    varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){    first=1;
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
           }  
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
         }    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
       }    file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     }      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
   }  and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
    They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;  It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
   would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
   agelim=AGESUP;  standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
   /*hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; *//* Every year of age */   Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
   hstepm=1;   and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2 years/6 months = 4 */  To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);  
   anprojmean=yp;    cov[1]=1;
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);    tj=cptcoveff;
   mprojmean=yp;    if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);    j1=0;
   jprojmean=yp;    for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
   fprintf(ficresf,"Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ 
         j1++;
   if (popforecast==1) {        if  (cptcovn>0) {
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL)    {          fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);goto end;          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     }          fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);          fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
           
     i=1;            fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF)          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
       {          fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
         i=i+1;          
       }          
     imx=i;          fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
              for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];          fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
   }          
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){          fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
       k=k+1;        }
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");        
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {        for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);          cov[2]=age;
       }          for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");            cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");          }
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);          for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficresf," [Population]");          for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
              cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=1;cpt++) {          
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");          gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
   fprintf(ficresf,"\nForecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);            trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
       for (agedeb=(fage-(1/12.)); agedeb>=(bage-(1/12.)); agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */          gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);          gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;      
         /*printf("agedeb=%.lf stepm=%d hstepm=%d nhstepm=%d \n",agedeb,stepm,hstepm,nhstepm);*/          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);              xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;            
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);              pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
                            
         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){            k=0;
           if (h==(int) (calagedate+12*cpt)) {            for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
             fprintf(ficresf,"h=%d ", h);              for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
             fprintf(ficresf,"\n %f %f ",agedeb,agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);                k=k+1;
           }                gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {              }
             kk1=0.;kk2=0;            }
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                    
               if (mobilav==1)            for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod];              xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
               else {      
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];            pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
                 /*  fprintf(ficresf," p3=%.3f p=%.3f ", p3mat[i][j][h],probs[(int)(agedeb)+1][i][cptcod]);*/            k=0;
               }            for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
               if (popforecast==1) kk2=kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb];                k=k+1;
             }                gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
                        }
             if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){            }
               fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);       
                          for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
               if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficresf," [%.f]", kk2);              gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
             }          }
           }  
         }          for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);            for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
       }              trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
       }          
     }          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
   }          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
   if (popforecast==1) {          free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);          free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);          free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);  
   }          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
   free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);          
   free_vector(weight,1,n);          k=0;
   fclose(ficresf);          for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
               k=k+1;
   strcpy(filerest,"t");              mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
   strcat(filerest,fileres);            }
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {          }
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;          for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
   }            for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);              varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   
           /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
   strcpy(filerese,"e");            for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
   strcat(filerese,fileres);            printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {            fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);            }*/
   }  
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);          fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");          fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);  
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);            fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
   }          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);            fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
   k=0;          }
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){          i=0;
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){          for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
       k=k+1;            for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");              i=i++;
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)              fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);              fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");              for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                 fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");                fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)              }
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);            }
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");          }/* end of loop for state */
         } /* end of loop for age */
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");  
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)        /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);        /*
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);            fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
       varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);        */
        
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");        /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);        first1=1;
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");        for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
                  for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
       hf=1;            if(l2==k2) continue;
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;            j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);            for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){              for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);                if(l1==k1) continue;
         if (popbased==1) {                i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)                if(i<=j) continue;
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];                for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
         }                  if ((int)age %5==0){
                            v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
         fprintf(ficrest," %.0f",age);                    v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){                    cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {                    mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*hf*eij[i][j][(int)age];                    mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
           }                    c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];                    /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
         }                    lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)                    lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)                    /* Eigen vectors */
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];                    v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
         fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],hf*sqrt(vepp));                    /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){                    v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
           fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[j],hf*sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));                    v12=-v21;
         }                    v22=v11;
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");                    tnalp=v21/v11;
       }                    if(first1==1){
     }                      first1=0;
   }                      printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                            }
                            fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
                     /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
  fclose(ficreseij);                    /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
  fclose(ficresvij);                    if(first==1){
   fclose(ficrest);                      first=0;
   fclose(ficpar);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
   /*  scanf("%d ",i); */                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/     :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
   %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
 strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");                              subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);                              subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
     exit(0);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
   }                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
  k=0;                              mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){                              mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){                    }else{
      k=k+1;                      first=0;
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");                      fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
        fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                                    mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
      varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);                              mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;                    }/* if first */
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);                  } /* age mod 5 */
    }                } /* end loop age */
  }                fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
   fclose(ficresvpl);              } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/          } /*l1 */
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);        }/* k1 */
        } /* loop covariates */
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);    }
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);    free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
      free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
      free_vector(xp,1,npar);
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    fclose(ficresprob);
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    fclose(ficresprobcov);
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    fclose(ficresprobcor);
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);    fflush(ficgp);
      fflush(fichtmcov);
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);  }
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);  
    
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);  /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
   printf("End of Imach\n");                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */                    int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                      int popforecast, int estepm ,\
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/                    double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/                    double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
   /*------ End -----------*/    int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files (first order: no variance)</h4>\n \
  end:   - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
 #ifdef windows             jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
  chdir(pathcd);     fprintf(fichtm,"\
 #endif   - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
               stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
  system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");     fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
 #ifdef windows             subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
   while (z[0] != 'q') {     fprintf(fichtm,"\
     chdir(pathcd);   - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): \
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
     scanf("%s",z);             estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");  
     else if (z[0] == 'e') {  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
       chdir(path);  
       system(optionfilehtm);   m=cptcoveff;
     }   if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);  
   }   jj1=0;
 #endif   for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
 }     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d1.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d2.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
          /* Stable prevalence in each health state */
          for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
            fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
          }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> Result files (second order: variances)</h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
     int ng;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
      for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stable prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      }
     }
     /*2 eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
       
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
         k=2*i;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
       }
     }
     
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);
           
         } 
       }
     }
     
     /* CV preval stable (period) */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
         
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
         
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
         }
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
       } 
     }  
     
     /* proba elementaires */
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
             fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
      }
   
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                else
                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                ij=1;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                    ij++;
                  }
                  else
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                    if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                      ij++;
                    }
                    else
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     int *popage;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     double agedeb, agefin,hf;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double **xi,tmp,delta;
   
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int *indx;
     char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE]; 
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
     int c,  h , cpt,l;
     int ju,jl, mi;
     int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
     int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double *severity;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
     double kk1, kk2;
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
   
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
   
   
     char z[1]="c", occ;
   
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
     char strstart[80], *strt, strtend[80];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
     long total_usecs;
    
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
     curr_time=start_time;
     tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       scanf("%s",pathtot);
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("pathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
     if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
   
     ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
    
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       exit(0);
     }
     /* Read guess parameters */
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       j=0;
       for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
         if(jj==i) continue;
         j++;
         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
         if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
           exit(1);
         }
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           else
             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }  
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
   
     p=param[1][1];
     
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     /* delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
         if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
           exit(1);
         }
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
           printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       }
     }
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
     /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
       fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
       if(mle==1)
         printf("%s",str);
       fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
       fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
       for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
         fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
         if(mle==1){
           printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
       }
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
       numlinepar++;
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
     }
     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
       for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      
     if(mle==1)
       printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/
     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
       
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
     }
   
     n= lastobs;
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
   
     i=1;
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {
           
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb); 
           strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         }
           
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         } 
         lstra=strlen(stra);
         if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
           stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
           num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
         }
         else
           num[i]=atol(stra);
           
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
           printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
   
         i=i+1;
       }
     }
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
        scanf("%d",i);*/
     imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
   
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
       if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
       if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
       }*/
      /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
        printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
     
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)
    
      /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
        else weight[i]=1;*/
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/
     Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
     Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
     Tage=ivector(1,15);      
      
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovn=j+1; 
       cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
       
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
         printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         goto end;
       }
       
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
   
       for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
         cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */ 
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
           cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
             cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=i;
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           }
           else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;
           }
           else {  /* Age is not in the model */
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
             Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
             cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=i;
             Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
             Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
             for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
               covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
             k1++;
             k2=k2+2;
           }
         }
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
         Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);
     fclose(fic);*/
   
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
     }
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0)
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a
                                    month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
               agemin=agev[m][i];
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
               agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           nberr++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           goto end;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax); 
   
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
   
      
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
   
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     Tcode=ivector(1,100);
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
         
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of 
                                    the estimations*/
     h=0;
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
       for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
             h++;
             if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
             /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
       
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
     printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
     printf("\n");
     globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
     printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
     printf("\n");
     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
     }
       
     /*--------- results files --------------*/
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
     
   
     fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             printf("%f ",p[jk]);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);
             fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
             jk++; 
           }
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
     if(mle!=0){
       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
       ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
     }
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if (j!=i) {
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
             jk++;
           }
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
      
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
     if(mle>=1)
       printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
   
   
   /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
      even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
   */
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             if(mle>=1)
               printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
     fflush(ficlog);
     fflush(ficres);
   
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     estepm=0;
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
     if (fage <= 2) {
       bage = ageminpar;
       fage = agemaxpar;
     }
      
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
      
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
     fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
     fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
      
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
    
   
     dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
     dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
     fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
     fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
     
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
   
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);
     fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);
     fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);
   
     /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
     /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
   
     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,path); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
     printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
   
     printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
    
     /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
     /*  chdir(path); */
    
     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
     free_lvector(num,1,n);
     free_vector(agedc,1,n);
     /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
     fclose(ficparo);
     fclose(ficres);
   
   
     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (stable prevalence) --------------*/
     
     strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
     strcat(filerespl,fileres);
     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Stable prevalence \n");
     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
     prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
     agebase=ageminpar;
     agelim=agemaxpar;
     ftolpl=1.e-10;
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
         printf("\n#******");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
         printf("******\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
           
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
     fclose(ficrespl);
   
     /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
     
     strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
     if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
     /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
   
     fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
           
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
   
           /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
   
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
   
     varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);
   
     fclose(ficrespij);
   
     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
         for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
           probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
     /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
     if(prevfcast==1){
       /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
   /*      }  */
   /*      else{ */
   /*        erreur=108; */
   /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
   /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
   /*      } */
     }
     
   
     /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
     strcpy(filerest,"t");
     strcat(filerest,fileres);
     if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
     strcpy(filerese,"e");
     strcat(filerese,fileres);
     if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
   
     strcpy(fileresv,"v");
     strcat(fileresv,fileres);
     if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
     /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
   ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     */
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1; 
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);  
    
         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav);
         if(popbased==1){
           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav);
         }
   
    
         fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
         for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
         epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
         for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
           if (popbased==1) {
             if(mobilav ==0){
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
             }else{ /* mobilav */ 
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
             }
           }
           
           fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
           for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
             for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
               epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
               /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
             }
             epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
           }
   
           for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
               vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
           }
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
         }
         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
       }
     }
     free_vector(weight,1,n);
     free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
     free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
     free_ivector(cod,1,n);
     free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficreseij);
     fclose(ficresvij);
     fclose(ficrest);
     fclose(ficpar);
     
     /*------- Variance of stable prevalence------*/   
   
     strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
     strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with variance of stable prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
       exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of stable prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
       }
     }
   
     fclose(ficresvpl);
   
     /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
     free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     
     free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
     free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
     /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
     free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
     free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
     free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
   
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
     tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocaltime at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
     strcat(plotcmd," ");
     strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: %s",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf(" Problem with gnuplot\n");
     }
     printf(" Wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }
   
   
   

Removed from v.1.19  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.96


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