Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.48 and 1.184

version 1.48, 2002/06/10 13:12:49 version 1.184, 2015/03/11 11:52:39
Line 1 Line 1
 /* $Id$  /* $Id$
    Interpolated Markov Chain    $State$
     $Log$
   Short summary of the programme:    Revision 1.184  2015/03/11 11:52:39  brouard
      Summary: Back from Windows 8. Intel Compiler
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from  
   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a    Revision 1.183  2015/03/10 20:34:32  brouard
   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are    Summary: 0.98q0, trying with directest, mnbrak fixed
   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the  
   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a    We use directest instead of original Powell test; probably no
   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change    incidence on the results, but better justifications;
   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are    We fixed Numerical Recipes mnbrak routine which was wrong and gave
   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a    wrong results.
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the  
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The    Revision 1.182  2015/02/12 08:19:57  brouard
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the    Summary: Trying to keep directest which seems simpler and more general
   probability to be observed in state j at the second wave    Author: Nicolas Brouard
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore  
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where    Revision 1.181  2015/02/11 23:22:24  brouard
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more    Summary: Comments on Powell added
   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program  
   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites    Author:
   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the  
   convergence.    Revision 1.180  2015/02/11 17:33:45  brouard
     Summary: Finishing move from main to function (hpijx and prevalence_limit)
   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple  
   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not    Revision 1.179  2015/01/04 09:57:06  brouard
   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an    Summary: back to OS/X
   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into  
   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.      Revision 1.178  2015/01/04 09:35:48  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h  
   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be    Revision 1.177  2015/01/03 18:40:56  brouard
   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate    Summary: Still testing ilc32 on OSX
   states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,  
   semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx    Revision 1.176  2015/01/03 16:45:04  brouard
   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices    *** empty log message ***
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply  
   hPijx.    Revision 1.175  2015/01/03 16:33:42  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also  
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.    Revision 1.174  2015/01/03 16:15:49  brouard
      Summary: Still in cross-compilation
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).  
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.    Revision 1.173  2015/01/03 12:06:26  brouard
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    Summary: trying to detect cross-compilation
   from the European Union.  
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and    Revision 1.172  2014/12/27 12:07:47  brouard
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    Summary: Back from Visual Studio and Intel, options for compiling for Windows XP
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .  
   **********************************************************************/    Revision 1.171  2014/12/23 13:26:59  brouard
      Summary: Back from Visual C
 #include <math.h>  
 #include <stdio.h>    Still problem with utsname.h on Windows
 #include <stdlib.h>  
 #include <unistd.h>    Revision 1.170  2014/12/23 11:17:12  brouard
     Summary: Cleaning some \%% back to %%
 #define MAXLINE 256  
 #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"    The escape was mandatory for a specific compiler (which one?), but too many warnings.
 /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/  
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80    Revision 1.169  2014/12/22 23:08:31  brouard
 /*#define DEBUG*/    Summary: 0.98p
 #define windows  
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    Outputs some informations on compiler used, OS etc. Testing on different platforms.
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */  
     Revision 1.168  2014/12/22 15:17:42  brouard
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    Summary: update
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */  
     Revision 1.167  2014/12/22 13:50:56  brouard
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    Summary: Testing uname and compiler version and if compiled 32 or 64
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */  
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */    Testing on Linux 64
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */  
 #define MAXN 20000    Revision 1.166  2014/12/22 11:40:47  brouard
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */    *** empty log message ***
 #define AGESUP 130  
 #define AGEBASE 40    Revision 1.165  2014/12/16 11:20:36  brouard
 #ifdef windows    Summary: After compiling on Visual C
 #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'  
 #else    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
 #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'  
 #endif    Revision 1.164  2014/12/16 10:52:11  brouard
     Summary: Merging with Visual C after suppressing some warnings for unused variables. Also fixing Saito's bug 0.98Xn
 char version[80]="Imach version 0.8h, May 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";  
 int erreur; /* Error number */    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
 int nvar;  
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;    Revision 1.163  2014/12/16 10:30:11  brouard
 int npar=NPARMAX;    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */  
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */    Revision 1.162  2014/09/25 11:43:39  brouard
 int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */    Summary: temporary backup 0.99!
 int popbased=0;  
     Revision 1.1  2014/09/16 11:06:58  brouard
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */    Summary: With some code (wrong) for nlopt
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */  
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */    Author:
 int mle, weightopt;  
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */    Revision 1.161  2014/09/15 20:41:41  brouard
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    Summary: Problem with macro SQR on Intel compiler
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */  
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    Revision 1.160  2014/09/02 09:24:05  brouard
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */    *** empty log message ***
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;  
 FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;    Revision 1.159  2014/09/01 10:34:10  brouard
 FILE *fichtm; /* Html File */    Summary: WIN32
 FILE *ficreseij;    Author: Brouard
 char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];  
 FILE  *ficresvij;    Revision 1.158  2014/08/27 17:11:51  brouard
 char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    *** empty log message ***
 FILE  *ficresvpl;  
 char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.157  2014/08/27 16:26:55  brouard
 char title[MAXLINE];    Summary: Preparing windows Visual studio version
 char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];    Author: Brouard
 char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];  
     In order to compile on Visual studio, time.h is now correct and time_t
 char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];    and tm struct should be used. difftime should be used but sometimes I
     just make the differences in raw time format (time(&now).
 char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];    Trying to suppress #ifdef LINUX
 char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];    Add xdg-open for __linux in order to open default browser.
 char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];  
     Revision 1.156  2014/08/25 20:10:10  brouard
 char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];    *** empty log message ***
   
 #define NR_END 1    Revision 1.155  2014/08/25 18:32:34  brouard
 #define FREE_ARG char*    Summary: New compile, minor changes
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    Author: Brouard
   
 #define NRANSI    Revision 1.154  2014/06/20 17:32:08  brouard
 #define ITMAX 200    Summary: Outputs now all graphs of convergence to period prevalence
   
 #define TOL 2.0e-4    Revision 1.153  2014/06/20 16:45:46  brouard
     Summary: If 3 live state, convergence to period prevalence on same graph
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660    Author: Brouard
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10  
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    Revision 1.152  2014/06/18 17:54:09  brouard
     Summary: open browser, use gnuplot on same dir than imach if not found in the path
 #define GOLD 1.618034  
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    Revision 1.151  2014/06/18 16:43:30  brouard
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    *** empty log message ***
   
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    Revision 1.150  2014/06/18 16:42:35  brouard
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    Summary: If gnuplot is not in the path try on same directory than imach binary (OSX)
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    Author: brouard
    
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    Revision 1.149  2014/06/18 15:51:14  brouard
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)    Summary: Some fixes in parameter files errors
     Author: Nicolas Brouard
 static double sqrarg;  
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    Revision 1.148  2014/06/17 17:38:48  brouard
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    Summary: Nothing new
     Author: Brouard
 int imx;  
 int stepm;    Just a new packaging for OS/X version 0.98nS
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/  
     Revision 1.147  2014/06/16 10:33:11  brouard
 int estepm;    *** empty log message ***
 /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/  
     Revision 1.146  2014/06/16 10:20:28  brouard
 int m,nb;    Summary: Merge
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;    Author: Brouard
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;  
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    Merge, before building revised version.
 double dateintmean=0;  
     Revision 1.145  2014/06/10 21:23:15  brouard
 double *weight;    Summary: Debugging with valgrind
 int **s; /* Status */    Author: Nicolas Brouard
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;  
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;    Lot of changes in order to output the results with some covariates
     After the Edimburgh REVES conference 2014, it seems mandatory to
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */    improve the code.
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    No more memory valgrind error but a lot has to be done in order to
     continue the work of splitting the code into subroutines.
 /**************** split *************************/    Also, decodemodel has been improved. Tricode is still not
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )    optimal. nbcode should be improved. Documentation has been added in
 {    the source code.
    char *s;                             /* pointer */  
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */    Revision 1.143  2014/01/26 09:45:38  brouard
     Summary: Version 0.98nR (to be improved, but gives same optimization results as 0.98k. Nice, promising
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */  
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
    s = strrchr( path,  DIRSEPARATOR );          /* find last / */    (Module): Version 0.98nR Running ok, but output format still only works for three covariates.
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */  
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */    Revision 1.142  2014/01/26 03:57:36  brouard
       extern char       *getwd( );    Summary: gnuplot changed plot w l 1 has to be changed to plot w l lt 2
   
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
 #else  
       extern char       *getcwd( );    Revision 1.141  2014/01/26 02:42:01  brouard
     * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {  
 #endif    Revision 1.140  2011/09/02 10:37:54  brouard
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );    Summary: times.h is ok with mingw32 now.
       }  
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */    Revision 1.139  2010/06/14 07:50:17  brouard
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */    After the theft of my laptop, I probably lost some lines of codes which were not uploaded to the CVS tree.
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */    I remember having already fixed agemin agemax which are pointers now but not cvs saved.
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */  
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    Revision 1.138  2010/04/30 18:19:40  brouard
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */    *** empty log message ***
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */  
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */    Revision 1.137  2010/04/29 18:11:38  brouard
    }    (Module): Checking covariates for more complex models
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */    than V1+V2. A lot of change to be done. Unstable.
 #ifdef windows  
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    Revision 1.136  2010/04/26 20:30:53  brouard
 #else    (Module): merging some libgsl code. Fixing computation
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    of likelione (using inter/intrapolation if mle = 0) in order to
 #endif    get same likelihood as if mle=1.
    s = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */    Some cleaning of code and comments added.
    s++;  
    strcpy(ext,s);                       /* save extension */    Revision 1.135  2009/10/29 15:33:14  brouard
    l1= strlen( name);    (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
    l2= strlen( s)+1;  
    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);    Revision 1.134  2009/10/29 13:18:53  brouard
    finame[l1-l2]= 0;    (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */  
 }    Revision 1.133  2009/07/06 10:21:25  brouard
     just nforces
   
 /******************************************/    Revision 1.132  2009/07/06 08:22:05  brouard
     Many tings
 void replace(char *s, char*t)  
 {    Revision 1.131  2009/06/20 16:22:47  brouard
   int i;    Some dimensions resccaled
   int lg=20;  
   i=0;    Revision 1.130  2009/05/26 06:44:34  brouard
   lg=strlen(t);    (Module): Max Covariate is now set to 20 instead of 8. A
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    lot of cleaning with variables initialized to 0. Trying to make
     (s[i] = t[i]);    V2+V3*age+V1+V4 strb=V3*age+V1+V4 working better.
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';  
   }    Revision 1.129  2007/08/31 13:49:27  lievre
 }    Modification of the way of exiting when the covariate is not binary in order to see on the window the error message before exiting
   
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)    Revision 1.128  2006/06/30 13:02:05  brouard
 {    (Module): Clarifications on computing e.j
   int i,j=0;  
   int lg=20;    Revision 1.127  2006/04/28 18:11:50  brouard
   i=0;    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
   lg=strlen(s);    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;    (Module): In order to speed up (in case of numerous covariates) we
   }    compute health expectancies (without variances) in a first step
   return j;    and then all the health expectancies with variances or standard
 }    deviation (needs data from the Hessian matrices) which slows the
     computation.
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)    In the future we should be able to stop the program is only health
 {    expectancies and graph are needed without standard deviations.
   int i,lg,j,p=0;  
   i=0;    Revision 1.126  2006/04/28 17:23:28  brouard
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
   }    loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
     Version 0.98h
   lg=strlen(t);  
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {    Revision 1.125  2006/04/04 15:20:31  lievre
     (u[j] = t[j]);    Errors in calculation of health expectancies. Age was not initialized.
   }    Forecasting file added.
      u[p]='\0';  
     Revision 1.124  2006/03/22 17:13:53  lievre
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {    Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma).
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);    The log-likelihood is printed in the log file
   }  
 }    Revision 1.123  2006/03/20 10:52:43  brouard
     * imach.c (Module): <title> changed, corresponds to .htm file
 /********************** nrerror ********************/    name. <head> headers where missing.
   
 void nrerror(char error_text[])    * imach.c (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
 {    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");    otherwise the weight is truncated).
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   exit(1);    1.
 }    Version 0.98g
 /*********************** vector *******************/  
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)    Revision 1.122  2006/03/20 09:45:41  brouard
 {    (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
   double *v;    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    otherwise the weight is truncated).
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   return v-nl+NR_END;    1.
 }    Version 0.98g
   
 /************************ free vector ******************/    Revision 1.121  2006/03/16 17:45:01  lievre
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)    * imach.c (Module): Comments concerning covariates added
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    * imach.c (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
 }    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
     not 1 month. Version 0.98f
 /************************ivector *******************************/  
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)    Revision 1.120  2006/03/16 15:10:38  lievre
 {    (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
   int *v;    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");  
   return v-nl+NR_END;    Revision 1.119  2006/03/15 17:42:26  brouard
 }    (Module): Bug if status = -2, the loglikelihood was
     computed as likelihood omitting the logarithm. Version O.98e
 /******************free ivector **************************/  
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)    Revision 1.118  2006/03/14 18:20:07  brouard
 {    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    table of variances if popbased=1 .
 }    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
     (Module): Function pstamp added
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/    (Module): Version 0.98d
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */    Revision 1.117  2006/03/14 17:16:22  brouard
 {    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;    table of variances if popbased=1 .
   int **m;    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
      (Module): Function pstamp added
   /* allocate pointers to rows */    (Module): Version 0.98d
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));  
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    Revision 1.116  2006/03/06 10:29:27  brouard
   m += NR_END;    (Module): Variance-covariance wrong links and
   m -= nrl;    varian-covariance of ej. is needed (Saito).
    
      Revision 1.115  2006/02/27 12:17:45  brouard
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */    (Module): One freematrix added in mlikeli! 0.98c
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");    Revision 1.114  2006/02/26 12:57:58  brouard
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    (Module): Some improvements in processing parameter
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    filename with strsep.
    
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    Revision 1.113  2006/02/24 14:20:24  brouard
      (Module): Memory leaks checks with valgrind and:
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */    datafile was not closed, some imatrix were not freed and on matrix
   return m;    allocation too.
 }  
     Revision 1.112  2006/01/30 09:55:26  brouard
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/    (Module): Back to gnuplot.exe instead of wgnuplot.exe
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)  
       int **m;    Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */    (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
 {    can be a simple dot '.'.
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));    Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
 }    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
   
 /******************* matrix *******************************/    Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
 {  
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;    Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
   double **m;    Gnuplot problem appeared...
     To be fixed
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
   m += NR_END;    Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
   m -= nrl;  
     Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    Some cleaning and links added in html output
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    *** empty log message ***
   
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
   return m;    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
 }    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
     that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
 /*************************free matrix ************************/    (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
 {    health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  
 }    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
     (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/  
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)    Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
 {    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;  
   double ***m;    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
     Fix on curr_time
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
   m += NR_END;    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
   m -= nrl;  
     Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    *** empty log message ***
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
     directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
     This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");    cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;    from other sources like vital statistic data.
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;  
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;  
      Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {    former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;  
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;    the slope with 95% confident intervals.
   }  
   return m;    Current limitations:
 }    A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
     model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/    B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)  
 {    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    suppressed.
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  
 }    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
 /***************** f1dim *************************/    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
 extern int ncom;  
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);    * imach.c (Repository):
      (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
 double f1dim(double x)    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
 {  
   int j;    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
   double f;    Just cleaning
   double *xt;  
      Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
   xt=vector(1,ncom);    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);    (Module): Version 0.96b
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);  
   return f;    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
 }    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
     exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
 /*****************brent *************************/  
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
 {    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
   int iter;    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
   double a,b,d,etemp;    helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
   double ftemp;    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;  
   double e=0.0;    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
      (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   x=w=v=bx;  
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
     xm=0.5*(a+b);    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);    of the covariance matrix to be input.
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/  
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
 #ifdef DEBUG    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);  
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
 #endif    Version 0.96
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){  
       *xmin=x;    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
       return fx;    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
     }    routine fileappend.
     ftemp=fu;  
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
       q=2.0*(q-r);    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
       q=fabs(q);    interview.
       etemp=e;    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
       e=d;    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    truncation)
       else {    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
         d=p/q;  
         u=x+d;    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
       }    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
     } else {    parcimony.
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
     }  
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
     fu=(*f)(u);    *** empty log message ***
     if (fu <= fx) {  
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)  
         } else {  */
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;  /*
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {     Interpolated Markov Chain
             v=w;  
             w=u;    Short summary of the programme:
             fv=fw;    
             fw=fu;    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
             v=u;    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
             fv=fu;    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
           }    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
         }    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
   }    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
   *xmin=x;    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
   return fx;    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
 }    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
     probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
     the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
             double (*func)(double))    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
 {    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
   double fu;    convergence.
    
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
   if (*fb > *fa) {    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
       }  
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
   while (*fb > *fc) {    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);    hPijx.
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {  
       fu=(*func)(u);    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {    of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence. 
       fu=(*func)(u);    
       if (fu < *fc) {    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
           }    from the European Union.
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
       u=ulim;    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
       fu=(*func)(u);    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
     } else {  
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
       fu=(*func)(u);    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
     }    
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)    **********************************************************************/
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)  /*
       }    main
 }    read parameterfile
     read datafile
 /*************** linmin ************************/    concatwav
     freqsummary
 int ncom;    if (mle >= 1)
 double *pcom,*xicom;      mlikeli
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);    print results files
      if mle==1 
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))       computes hessian
 {    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,        begin-prev-date,...
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);    open gnuplot file
   double f1dim(double x);    open html file
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,    period (stable) prevalence      | pl_nom    1-1 2-2 etc by covariate
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));     for age prevalim()             | #****** V1=0  V2=1  V3=1  V4=0 ******
   int j;                                    | 65 1 0 2 1 3 1 4 0  0.96326 0.03674
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;      freexexit2 possible for memory heap.
   double fx,fb,fa;  
      h Pij x                         | pij_nom  ficrestpij
   ncom=n;     # Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j= 1-1 1-2     1-3     2-1     2-2     2-3
   pcom=vector(1,n);         1  85   85    1.00000             0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000
   xicom=vector(1,n);         1  85   86    0.68299             0.22291 0.09410 0.71093 0.00000 0.28907
   nrfunc=func;  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {         1  65   99    0.00364             0.00322 0.99314 0.00350 0.00310 0.99340
     pcom[j]=p[j];         1  65  100    0.00214             0.00204 0.99581 0.00206 0.00196 0.99597
     xicom[j]=xi[j];    variance of p one-step probabilities varprob  | prob_nom   ficresprob #One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()
   }     Standard deviation of one-step probabilities | probcor_nom   ficresprobcor #One-step probabilities and correlation matrix
   ax=0.0;     Matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities |  probcov_nom ficresprobcov #One-step probabilities and covariance matrix
   xx=1.0;  
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);    health expectancies
 #ifdef DEBUG    Variance-covariance of DFLE
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);    prevalence()
 #endif     movingaverage()
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    varevsij() 
     xi[j] *= xmin;    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
     p[j] += xi[j];    total life expectancies
   }    Variance of period (stable) prevalence
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);   end
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);  */
 }  
   #define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */
 /*************** powell ************************/  /* #define POWELLORIGINAL */ /* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test */
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,  /* #define MNBRAKORIGINAL */ /* Don't use mnbrak fix */
             double (*func)(double []))  
 {  #include <math.h>
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,  #include <stdio.h>
               double (*func)(double []));  #include <stdlib.h>
   int i,ibig,j;  #include <string.h>
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;  
   double fp,fptt;  #ifdef _WIN32
   double *xits;  #include <io.h>
   pt=vector(1,n);  #include <windows.h>
   ptt=vector(1,n);  #include <tchar.h>
   xit=vector(1,n);  #else
   xits=vector(1,n);  #include <unistd.h>
   *fret=(*func)(p);  #endif
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];  
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {  #include <limits.h>
     fp=(*fret);  #include <sys/types.h>
     ibig=0;  
     del=0.0;  #if defined(__GNUC__)
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);  #include <sys/utsname.h> /* Doesn't work on Windows */
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)  #endif
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);  
     printf("\n");  #include <sys/stat.h>
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  #include <errno.h>
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];  /* extern int errno; */
       fptt=(*fret);  
 #ifdef DEBUG  /* #ifdef LINUX */
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);  /* #include <time.h> */
 #endif  /* #include "timeval.h" */
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  /* #else */
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  /* #include <sys/time.h> */
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {  /* #endif */
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));  
         ibig=i;  #include <time.h>
       }  
 #ifdef DEBUG  #ifdef GSL
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));  #include <gsl/gsl_errno.h>
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  #include <gsl/gsl_multimin.h>
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);  #endif
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);  
       }  
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  #ifdef NLOPT
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);  #include <nlopt.h>
       printf("\n");  typedef struct {
 #endif    double (* function)(double [] );
     }  } myfunc_data ;
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {  #endif
 #ifdef DEBUG  
       int k[2],l;  /* #include <libintl.h> */
       k[0]=1;  /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
       k[1]=-1;  
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));  #define MAXLINE 1024 /* Was 256. Overflow with 312 with 2 states and 4 covariates. Should be ok */
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
       printf("\n");  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
         }  
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));  #define MAXPARM 128 /**< Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
       }  #define NPARMAX 64 /**< (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
 #endif  
   #define NINTERVMAX 8
   #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of live states (for func) */
       free_vector(xit,1,n);  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
       free_vector(xits,1,n);  #define NCOVMAX 20 /**< Maximum number of covariates, including generated covariates V1*V2 */
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);  #define codtabm(h,k)  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
       free_vector(pt,1,n);  #define MAXN 20000
       return;  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
     }  #define AGESUP 130
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");  #define AGEBASE 40
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  #define AGEGOMP 10 /**< Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];  #ifdef _WIN32
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
       pt[j]=p[j];  #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
     }  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);  #else
     if (fptt < fp) {  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);  #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
       if (t < 0.0) {  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  #endif
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];  /* $Id$ */
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];  /* $State$ */
         }  
 #ifdef DEBUG  char version[]="Imach version 0.98q0, March 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  char strstart[80];
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
         printf("\n");  int erreur=0, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
 #endif  int nvar=0, nforce=0; /* Number of variables, number of forces */
       }  /* Number of covariates model=V2+V1+ V3*age+V2*V4 */
     }  int cptcovn=0; /**< cptcovn number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age and age*product) */
   }  int cptcovt=0; /**< cptcovt number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age) */
 }  int cptcovs=0; /**< cptcovs number of simple covariates V2+V1 =2 */
   int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariates with age: V3*age only =1 */
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/  int cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age */   
   int cptcoveff=0; /* Total number of covariates to vary for printing results */
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)  int cptcov=0; /* Working variable */
 {  int npar=NPARMAX;
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
   int ncovmodel=0, ncovcol=0;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
   int i, ii,j,k;  int popbased=0;
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;  
   double **matprod2();  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();  int maxwav=0; /* Maxim number of waves */
   double **newm;  int jmin=0, jmax=0; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */  int ijmin=0, ijmax=0; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */ 
   int gipmx=0, gsw=0; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  int mle=1, weightopt=0;
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
     }  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
   int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
    cov[1]=1.;             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
    int countcallfunc=0;  /* Count the number of calls to func */
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){  double **matprod2(); /* test */
     newm=savm;  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
      cov[2]=agefin;  /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */
    FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */
         /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
       }  long ipmx=0; /* Number of contributions */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
   FILE *ficresilk;
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/  FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);  FILE *ficreseij;
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
     savm=oldm;  FILE *ficresstdeij;
     oldm=newm;  char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
     maxmax=0.;  FILE *ficrescveij;
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){  char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
       min=1.;  FILE  *ficresvij;
       max=0.;  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {  FILE  *ficresvpl;
         sumnew=0;  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];  char title[MAXLINE];
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);  char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
       }  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
       maxmin=max-min;  int  outcmd=0;
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);  
     }  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){  
       return prlim;  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
     }  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
   }  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
 }  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
   
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )  /* struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time; */
 {  /* struct timezone tzp; */
   double s1, s2;  /* extern int gettimeofday(); */
   /*double t34;*/  struct tm tml, *gmtime(), *localtime();
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;  
   extern time_t time();
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){  struct tm start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  time_t  rstart_time, rend_time, rcurr_time, rlast_time, rforecast_time; /* raw time */
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/  struct tm tm;
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
       }  
       ps[i][j]=s2;  char *endptr;
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  long lval;
     }  double dval;
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  #define NR_END 1
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  #define FREE_ARG char*
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
       }  
       ps[i][j]=s2;  #define NRANSI 
     }  #define ITMAX 200 
   }  
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
   
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
      s1=0;  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  #define GOLD 1.618034 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  #define GLIMIT 100.0 
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */    
   } /* end i */  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
   #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/myutils_8h-source.html */
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  #define mytinydouble 1.0e-16
       ps[ii][jj]=0;  /* #define DEQUAL(a,b) (fabs((a)-(b))<mytinydouble) */
       ps[ii][ii]=1;  /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/mynrutils_8h-source.html */
     }  /* static double dsqrarg; */
   }  /* #define DSQR(a) (DEQUAL((dsqrarg=(a)),0.0) ? 0.0 : dsqrarg*dsqrarg) */
   static double sqrarg;
   #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);  
    }  int imx; 
     printf("\n ");  int stepm=1;
     }  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/  
 /*  int estepm;
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);  /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
   goto end;*/  
     return ps;  int m,nb;
 }  long *num;
   int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
   double **pmmij, ***probs;
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)  double *ageexmed,*agecens;
 {  double dateintmean=0;
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times  
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */  double *weight;
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized  int **s; /* Status */
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns  double *agedc;
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */  double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
   long i, j, k;                    * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)                    * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2]; */
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)  double  idx; 
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)  int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];  int *Ndum; /** Freq of modality (tricode */
   int **codtab; /**< codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); */
   return out;  int **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
 }  double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
   
   double ftol=FTOL; /**< Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/  double ftolhess; /**< Tolerance for computing hessian */
   
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )  /**************** split *************************/
 {  static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month  {
      duration (i.e. until    /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.       the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step    */ 
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be    int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
      included manually here.  
     l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
      */    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
     ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
   int i, j, d, h, k;    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];      strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
   double **newm;      /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
         printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */      /* get current working directory */
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  #ifdef WIN32
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      if (_getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  #else
     }          if (getcwd(dirc, FILENAME_MAX) == NULL) {
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  #endif
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){        return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){      }
       newm=savm;      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
       cov[1]=1.;    } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];      dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
       printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
     }
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/    /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,    if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));      dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
       savm=oldm;      dirc[l1+1] = 0; 
       oldm=newm;      printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
     }    }
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    if (ss >0){
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];      ss++;
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);      strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
          */      l1= strlen( name);
       }      l2= strlen(ss)+1;
   } /* end h */      strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
   return po;      finame[l1-l2]= 0;
 }    }
   
     return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/  }
 double func( double *x)  
 {  
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;  /******************************************/
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];  
   double **out;  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */  {
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */    int i;
   long ipmx;    int lg=0;
   /*extern weight */    i=0;
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */    lg=strlen(t);
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)      (s[i] = t[i]);
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
   */    }
   cov[1]=1.;  }
   
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;  char *trimbb(char *out, char *in)
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){  { /* Trim multiple blanks in line but keeps first blanks if line starts with blanks */
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];    char *s;
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){    s=out;
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)    while (*in != '\0'){
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      while( *in == ' ' && *(in+1) == ' '){ /* && *(in+1) != '\0'){*/
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){        in++;
         newm=savm;      }
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;      *out++ = *in++;
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {    }
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];    *out='\0';
         }    return s;
          }
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  char *cutl(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
         savm=oldm;  {
         oldm=newm;    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before first occurence of char 'occ' 
               and alocc starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
               gives blocc="abcdef2ghi" and alocc="j".
       } /* end mult */       If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns blocc
          */
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);    char *s, *t;
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/    t=in;s=in;
       ipmx +=1;    while ((*in != occ) && (*in != '\0')){
       sw += weight[i];      *alocc++ = *in++;
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;    }
     } /* end of wave */    if( *in == occ){
   } /* end of individual */      *(alocc)='\0';
       s=++in;
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];    }
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */   
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */    if (s == t) {/* occ not found */
   return -l;      *(alocc-(in-s))='\0';
 }      in=s;
     }
     while ( *in != '\0'){
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/      *blocc++ = *in++;
     }
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))  
 {    *blocc='\0';
   int i,j, iter;    return t;
   double **xi,*delti;  }
   double fret;  char *cutv(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  {
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before last occurence of char 'occ' 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)       and alocc starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);       gives blocc="abcdef2ghi" and alocc="j".
   printf("Powell\n");       If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns alocc
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);    */
     char *s, *t;
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));    t=in;s=in;
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));    while (*in != '\0'){
       while( *in == occ){
 }        *blocc++ = *in++;
         s=in;
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/      }
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))      *blocc++ = *in++;
 {    }
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;    if (s == t) /* occ not found */
   double **hess;      *(blocc-(in-s))='\0';
   int i, j,jk;    else
   int *indx;      *(blocc-(in-s)-1)='\0';
     in=s;
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);    while ( *in != '\0'){
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);      *alocc++ = *in++;
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;    }
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;  
     *alocc='\0';
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);    return s;
   }
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");  
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  {
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);    int i,j=0;
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/    int lg=20;
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/    i=0;
   }    lg=strlen(s);
      for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {    }
       if (j>i) {    return j;
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);  }
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);  
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];      /* void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ) */
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/  /* { */
       }  /*   /\* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before last occurence of char 'occ'  */
     }  /*      and v starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2') */
   }  /*      gives u="abcdef2ghi" and v="j" *\/ */
   printf("\n");  /*   int i,lg,j,p=0; */
   /*   i=0; */
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");  /*   lg=strlen(t); */
    /*   for(j=0; j<=lg-1; j++) { */
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  /*     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1; */
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  /*   } */
   x=vector(1,npar);  
   indx=ivector(1,npar);  /*   for(j=0; j<p; j++) { */
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)  /*     (u[j] = t[j]); */
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];  /*   } */
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);  /*      u[p]='\0'; */
   
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  /*    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) { */
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;  /*     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]); */
     x[j]=1;  /*   } */
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);  /* } */
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];  #ifdef _WIN32
     }  char * strsep(char **pp, const char *delim)
   }  {
     char *p, *q;
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");           
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {    if ((p = *pp) == NULL)
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {      return 0;
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);    if ((q = strpbrk (p, delim)) != NULL)
     }    {
     printf("\n");      *pp = q + 1;
   }      *q = '\0';
     }
   /* Recompute Inverse */    else
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)      *pp = 0;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];    return p;
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);  }
   #endif
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");  
   /********************** nrerror ********************/
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;  void nrerror(char error_text[])
     x[j]=1;  {
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
       y[i][j]=x[i];    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);  }
     }  /*********************** vector *******************/
     printf("\n");  double *vector(int nl, int nh)
   }  {
   */    double *v;
     v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);    return v-nl+NR_END;
   free_vector(x,1,npar);  }
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);  
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);  /************************ free vector ******************/
   void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
   {
 }    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   }
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/  
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])  /************************ivector *******************************/
 {  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
   int i;  {
   int l=1, lmax=20;    int *v;
   double k1,k2;    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
   double res;    return v-nl+NR_END;
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;  }
   double fx;  
   int k=0,kmax=10;  /******************free ivector **************************/
   double l1;  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
   {
   fx=func(x);    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  }
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  
     l1=pow(10,l);  /************************lvector *******************************/
     delts=delt;  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){  {
       delt = delta*(l1*k);    long *v;
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
       k1=func(p2)-fx;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;    return v-nl+NR_END;
       k2=func(p2)-fx;  }
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */  
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */  /******************free lvector **************************/
        void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
 #ifdef DEBUG  {
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
 #endif  }
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */  
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
         k=kmax;  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
       }       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */  { 
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
       }    int **m; 
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){    
         delts=delt;    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
       }    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
     }    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
   }    m += NR_END; 
   delti[theta]=delts;    m -= nrl; 
   return res;    
      
 }    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
     m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
 {    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
   int i;    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;    
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];    
   int k;    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
     return m; 
   fx=func(x);  } 
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {  
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;  void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;        int **m;
     k1=func(p2)-fx;        long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
         /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;  { 
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
     k2=func(p2)-fx;    free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
    } 
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;  
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;  /******************* matrix *******************************/
     k3=func(p2)-fx;  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
    {
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    double **m;
     k4=func(p2)-fx;  
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
 #ifdef DEBUG    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);    m += NR_END;
 #endif    m -= nrl;
   }  
   return res;    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
 }    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
     m[nrl] += NR_END;
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/    m[nrl] -= ncl;
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)  
 {    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   int i,imax,j,k;    return m;
   double big,dum,sum,temp;    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) or &(m[1][0])
   double *vv;  m[i] = address of ith row of the table. &(m[i]) is its value which is another adress
    that of m[i][0]. In order to get the value p m[i][0] but it is unitialized.
   vv=vector(1,n);     */
   *d=1.0;  }
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  
     big=0.0;  /*************************free matrix ************************/
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;  {
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     vv[i]=1.0/big;    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   }  }
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
       sum=a[i][j];  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];  {
       a[i][j]=sum;    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
     }    double ***m;
     big=0.0;  
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
       sum=a[i][j];    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)    m += NR_END;
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];    m -= nrl;
       a[i][j]=sum;  
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
         big=dum;    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
         imax=i;    m[nrl] += NR_END;
       }    m[nrl] -= ncl;
     }  
     if (j != imax) {    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {  
         dum=a[imax][k];    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
         a[j][k]=dum;    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
       }    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
       *d = -(*d);    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
       vv[imax]=vv[j];      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
     }    
     indx[j]=imax;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
     if (j != n) {      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;    }
     }    return m; 
   }    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
 ;    */
 }  }
   
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
 {  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;  {
   double sum;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
      free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
     ip=indx[i];  }
     sum=b[ip];  
     b[ip]=b[i];  /*************** function subdirf ***********/
     if (ii)  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];  {
     else if (sum) ii=i;    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
     b[i]=sum;    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
   }    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
     sum=b[i];    return tmpout;
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];  }
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];  
   }  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
 }  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
   {
 /************ Frequencies ********************/    
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
 {  /* Some frequencies */    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
      strcat(tmpout,"/");
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;    strcat(tmpout,preop);
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
   double *pp;    return tmpout;
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;  }
   FILE *ficresp;  
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
    char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);  {
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {    strcat(tmpout,"/");
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);    strcat(tmpout,preop);
     exit(0);    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
   }    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    return tmpout;
   j1=0;  }
    
   j=cptcoveff;  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}  {
      long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
       j1++;    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
         scanf("%d", i);*/    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)      sprintf(ascdiff,"%ld day(s) %ld hour(s) %ld minute(s) %ld second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)    return ascdiff;
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;  }
        
       dateintsum=0;  /***************** f1dim *************************/
       k2cpt=0;  extern int ncom; 
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
         bool=1;  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
         if  (cptcovn>0) {   
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)  double f1dim(double x) 
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])  { 
               bool=0;    int j; 
         }    double f;
         if (bool==1) {    double *xt; 
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){   
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
               if (m<lastpass) {    return f; 
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];  } 
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];  
               }  /*****************brent *************************/
                double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {  { 
                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;    int iter; 
                 k2cpt++;    double a,b,d,etemp;
               }    double fu=0,fv,fw,fx;
             }    double ftemp=0.;
           }    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
         }    double e=0.0; 
       }   
            a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
       fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
     x=w=v=bx; 
       if  (cptcovn>0) {    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
         fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);      xm=0.5*(a+b); 
         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
       }      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");  #ifdef DEBUGBRENT
            printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){      fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
         if(i==(int)agemax+3)      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
           printf("Total");  #endif
         else      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
           printf("Age %d", i);        *xmin=x; 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        return fx; 
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)      } 
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];      ftemp=fu;
         }      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)        q=2.0*(q-r); 
             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
           else        q=fabs(q); 
             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);        etemp=e; 
         }        e=d; 
         if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)        else { 
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          d=p/q; 
         }          u=x+d; 
           if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
           pos += pp[jk];        } 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){      } else { 
           if(pos>=1.e-5)        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
             printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);      } 
           else      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
             printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);      fu=(*f)(u); 
           if( i <= (int) agemax){      if (fu <= fx) { 
             if(pos>=1.e-5){        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;        SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
               /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/      } else { 
             }        if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
             else        if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);          v=w; 
           }          w=u; 
         }          fv=fw; 
                  fw=fu; 
         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)        } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          v=u; 
             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);          fv=fu; 
         if(i <= (int) agemax)        } 
           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");      } 
         printf("\n");    } 
       }    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
     }    *xmin=x; 
   }    return fx; 
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;  } 
    
   fclose(ficresp);  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);  
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
                double (*func)(double)) 
   /* End of Freq */  { /* Given a function func , and given distinct initial points ax and bx , this routine searches in
 }  the downhill direction (defined by the function as evaluated at the initial points) and returns
   new points ax , bx , cx that bracket a minimum of the function. Also returned are the function
 /************ Prevalence ********************/  values at the three points, fa, fb , and fc such that fa > fb and fb < fc.
 void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)     */
 {  /* Some frequencies */    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
      double fu; 
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;   
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */    *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
   double *pp;    *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
   double pos, k2;    if (*fb > *fa) { 
       SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);      SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    } 
      *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
   j1=0;  #ifdef DEBUG
      printf("mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
   j=cptcoveff;    fprintf(ficlog,"mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}  #endif
      while (*fb > *fc) { /* Declining a,b,c with fa> fb > fc */
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
       j1++;      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
              (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); /* Minimum abscissa of a parabolic estimated from (a,fa), (b,fb) and (c,fc). */
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)        ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); /* Maximum abscissa where function should be evaluated */
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)        if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { /* if u_p is between b and c */
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)        fu=(*func)(u); 
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;  #ifdef DEBUG
              /* f(x)=A(x-u)**2+f(u) */
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {        double A, fparabu; 
         bool=1;        A= (*fb - *fa)/(*bx-*ax)/(*bx+*ax-2*u);
         if  (cptcovn>0) {        fparabu= *fa - A*(*ax-u)*(*ax-u);
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)        printf("mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
               bool=0;        /* And thus,it can be that fu > *fc even if fparabu < *fc */
         }        /* mnbrak (*ax=7.666299858533, *fa=299039.693133272231), (*bx=8.595447774979, *fb=298976.598289369489),
         if (bool==1) {          (*cx=10.098840694817, *fc=298946.631474258087),  (*u=9.852501168332, fu=298948.773013752128, fparabu=298945.434711494134) */
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){        /* In that case, there is no bracket in the output! Routine is wrong with many consequences.*/
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);  #endif 
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {  #ifdef MNBRAKORIGINAL
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;  #else
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;        if (fu > *fc) {
               if (m<lastpass) {  #ifdef DEBUG
                 if (calagedate>0)        printf("mnbrak4  fu > fc \n");
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak4 fu > fc\n");
                 else  #endif
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];          /* SHFT(u,*cx,*cx,u) /\* ie a=c, c=u and u=c; in that case, next SHFT(a,b,c,u) will give a=b=b, b=c=u, c=u=c and *\/  */
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3)] += weight[i];          /* SHFT(*fa,*fc,fu,*fc) /\* (b, u, c) is a bracket while test fb > fc will be fu > fc  will exit *\/ */
               }          dum=u; /* Shifting c and u */
             }          u = *cx;
           }          *cx = dum;
         }          dum = fu;
       }          fu = *fc;
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){          *fc =dum;
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        } else { /* end */
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)  #ifdef DEBUG
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];        printf("mnbrak3  fu < fc \n");
         }        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak3 fu < fc\n");
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  #endif
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)          dum=u; /* Shifting c and u */
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];          u = *cx;
         }          *cx = dum;
                  dum = fu;
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          fu = *fc;
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          *fc =dum;
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];        }
         }  #endif
              } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { /* u is after c but before ulim */
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];  #ifdef DEBUG
                printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim\n");
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){            fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim\n");
           if( i <= (int) agemax){  #endif
             if(pos>=1.e-5){        fu=(*func)(u); 
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;        if (fu < *fc) { 
             }  #ifdef DEBUG
           }        printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim AND fu < fc\n");
         }        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim AND fu <fc \n");
          #endif
       }          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
     }          SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
   }        } 
       } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { /* u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c) */
    #ifdef DEBUG
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);        printf("mnbrak2  u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
    #endif
 }  /* End of Freq */        u=ulim; 
         fu=(*func)(u); 
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/      } else { /* u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum) */
   #ifdef DEBUG
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)        printf("mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
 {        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.  #endif
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i        fu=(*func)(u); 
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]      } /* end tests */
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
      */      SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
   #ifdef DEBUG
   int i, mi, m;        printf("mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/  #endif
     } /* end while; ie return (a, b, c, fa, fb, fc) such that a < b < c with f(a) > f(b) and fb < f(c) */
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;  } 
   double sum=0.;  
   jmin=1e+5;  /*************** linmin ************************/
   jmax=-1;  /* Given an n -dimensional point p[1..n] and an n -dimensional direction xi[1..n] , moves and
   jmean=0.;  resets p to where the function func(p) takes on a minimum along the direction xi from p ,
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){  and replaces xi by the actual vector displacement that p was moved. Also returns as fret
     mi=0;  the value of func at the returned location p . This is actually all accomplished by calling the
     m=firstpass;  routines mnbrak and brent .*/
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){  int ncom; 
       if(s[m][i]>=1)  double *pcom,*xicom;
         mw[++mi][i]=m;  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
       if(m >=lastpass)   
         break;  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
       else  { 
         m++;    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
     }/* end while */                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){    double f1dim(double x); 
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */    void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */                double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
          /* Only death is a correct wave */    int j; 
       mw[mi][i]=m;    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
     }    double fx,fb,fa;
    
     wav[i]=mi;    ncom=n; 
     if(mi==0)    pcom=vector(1,n); 
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);    xicom=vector(1,n); 
   }    nrfunc=func; 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){      xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
       if (stepm <=0)    } 
         dh[mi][i]=1;    ax=0.0; 
       else{    xx=1.0; 
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); /* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom */
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); /* Find a minimum P+lambda n in that direction (lambdamin), with TOL between abscisses */
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);  #ifdef DEBUG
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */    printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
           k=k+1;    fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;  #endif
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
           sum=sum+j;      xi[j] *= xmin; 
           /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */      p[j] += xi[j]; 
           }    } 
         }    free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
         else{    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));  } 
           k=k+1;  
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;  
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;  /*************** powell ************************/
           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */  /*
           sum=sum+j;  Minimization of a function func of n variables. Input consists of an initial starting point
         }  p[1..n] ; an initial matrix xi[1..n][1..n] , whose columns contain the initial set of di-
         jk= j/stepm;  rections (usually the n unit vectors); and ftol , the fractional tolerance in the function value
         jl= j -jk*stepm;  such that failure to decrease by more than this amount on one iteration signals doneness. On
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;  output, p is set to the best point found, xi is the then-current direction set, fret is the returned
         if(jl <= -ju)  function value at p , and iter is the number of iterations taken. The routine linmin is used.
           dh[mi][i]=jk;   */
         else  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;              double (*func)(double [])) 
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)  { 
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
       }                double (*func)(double [])); 
     }    int i,ibig,j; 
   }    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
   jmean=sum/k;    double directest;
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);    double fp,fptt;
  }    double *xits;
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/    int niterf, itmp;
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)  
 {    pt=vector(1,n); 
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;    ptt=vector(1,n); 
   int cptcode=0;    xit=vector(1,n); 
   cptcoveff=0;    xits=vector(1,n); 
      *fret=(*func)(p); 
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;      rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
     for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {      fp=(*fret); 
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {      ibig=0; 
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);      del=0.0; 
       Ndum[ij]++;      rlast_time=rcurr_time;
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/      /* (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;      rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
     }      curr_time = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
       printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time);fflush(stdout);
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret,rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time); fflush(ficlog);
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;  /*     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec); */
     }     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
     ij=1;        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
         fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
         fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {      }
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {      printf("\n");
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
                if(*iter <=3){
           ij++;        tml = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
         }        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tml));
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;        rforecast_time=rcurr_time; 
       }          itmp = strlen(strcurr);
     }        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
   }            strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
         printf("\nConsidering the time needed for the last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
         for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {          rforecast_time=rcurr_time+(niterf-*iter)*(rcurr_time-rlast_time);
       ij=Tvar[i];          forecast_time = *localtime(&rforecast_time);
       Ndum[ij]++;          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&forecast_time));
     }          itmp = strlen(strfor);
           if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
  ij=1;          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;        }
      ij++;      }
    }      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
  }        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
          fptt=(*fret); 
     cptcoveff=ij-1;  #ifdef DEBUG
 }            printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
             fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/  #endif
         printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* xit[n] has been loaded for direction i */
 {        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { /* We are keeping the max gain on each of the n directions 
   /* Health expectancies */                                         because that direction will be replaced unless the gain del is small
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;                                        in comparison with the 'probable' gain, mu^2, with the last average direction.
   double age, agelim, hf;                                        Unless the n directions are conjugate some gain in the determinant may be obtained
   double ***p3mat,***varhe;                                        with the new direction.
   double **dnewm,**doldm;                                        */
   double *xp;          del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
   double **gp, **gm;          ibig=i; 
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;        } 
   int theta;  #ifdef DEBUG
         printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
   varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int) fage);        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
   xp=vector(1,npar);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,npar);          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
            fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");        }
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          printf(" p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          fprintf(ficlog," p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);        }
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");        printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   if(estepm < stepm){  #endif
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);      } /* end i */
   }      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) { /* Did we reach enough precision? */
   else  hstepm=estepm;    #ifdef DEBUG
   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months        int k[2],l;
    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example        k[0]=1;
    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them        k[1]=-1;
    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
    * progression inbetween and thus overestimating or underestimating according        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise        }
    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */        printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size            fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */          }
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if        }
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same  #endif
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.  
   */  
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
         free_vector(xits,1,n); 
   agelim=AGESUP;        free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */        return; 
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);      } 
     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { /* Computes the extrapolated point P_0 + 2 (P_n-P_0) */
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);        pt[j]=p[j]; 
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);      } 
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);      fptt=(*func)(ptt); /* f_3 */
       if (fptt < fp) { /* If extrapolated point is better, decide if we keep that new direction or not */
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored        /* (x1 f1=fp), (x2 f2=*fret), (x3 f3=fptt), (xm fm) */
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */        /* From x1 (P0) distance of x2 is at h and x3 is 2h */
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);          /* Let f"(x2) be the 2nd derivative equal everywhere.  */
          /* Then the parabolic through (x1,f1), (x2,f2) and (x3,f3) */
         /* will reach at f3 = fm + h^2/2 f"m  ; f" = (f1 -2f2 +f3 ) / h**2 */
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */        /* Conditional for using this new direction is that mu^2 = (f1-2f2+f3)^2 /2 < del */
         /* t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); */
     /* Computing Variances of health expectancies */  #ifdef NRCORIGINAL
         t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)- del*SQR(fp-fptt); /* Original Numerical Recipes in C*/
      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){  #else
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del); /* Intel compiler doesn't work on one line; bug reported */
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        t= t- del*SQR(fp-fptt);
       }  #endif
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);          directest = fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt - 2.0 * del; /* If del was big enough we change it for a new direction */
    #ifdef DEBUG
       cptj=0;        printf("t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf  directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){        fprintf(ficlog,"t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){        printf("t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
           cptj=cptj+1;               (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
           for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){        fprintf(ficlog,"t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
             gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;               (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
           }        printf("tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
         }        fprintf(ficlog, "tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
       }  #endif
        #ifdef POWELLORIGINAL
              if (t < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)  #else
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        if (directest*t < 0.0) { /* Contradiction between both tests */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);          printf("directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt,del);
              printf("f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
       cptj=0;        fprintf(ficlog,"directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt, del);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){        fprintf(ficlog,"f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){      } 
           cptj=cptj+1;        if (directest < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
           for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){  #endif
             gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* computes minimum on the extrapolated direction.*/
           }          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
         }            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; /* Replace direction with biggest decrease by last direction n */
       }            xi[j][n]=xit[j];      /* and this nth direction by the by the average p_0 p_n */
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate*2; j++)          }
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){          printf("Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];          fprintf(ficlog,"Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
         }  
      }  #ifdef DEBUG
              printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
 /* End theta */          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
           for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)          }
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate*2;j++)          printf("\n");
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];  #endif
              } /* end of t negative */
       } /* end if (fptt < fp)  */
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)    } 
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)  } 
         varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;  
   /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);  
      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){  {
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,nlstate*2,gradg[k]);       matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)    
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)    int i, ii,j,k;
             varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
       }    /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
     }    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
     /* Computing expectancies */    double **newm;
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                  oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/      }
     
         }    cov[1]=1.;
     
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
     cptj=0;    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      newm=savm;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
         cptj++;      cov[2]=agefin;
         fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );      
       }      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");        cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
            /*printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[%d][Tvar[%d]]=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);      }
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);      /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);      /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /\* Useless *\/ */
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);      /*   cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]]; */
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      
   }      /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
   printf("\n");      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);      /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
   free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int)fage);      
 }      savm=oldm;
       oldm=newm;
 /************ Variance ******************/      maxmax=0.;
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm)      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
 {        min=1.;
   /* Variance of health expectancies */        max=0.;
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
   double **newm;          sumnew=0;
   double **dnewm,**doldm;          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
   int k, cptcode;          /*printf(" prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d \n", i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin);*/
   double *xp;          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
   double **gp, **gm;          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;        }
   double ***p3mat;        maxmin=max-min;
   double age,agelim, hf;        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
   int theta;      } /* j loop */
       if(maxmax < ftolpl){
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");        return prlim;
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");      }
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    } /* age loop */
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    return prlim; /* should not reach here */
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);  }
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");  
   /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
   xp=vector(1,npar);  
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  {
      /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
   if(estepm < stepm){       computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);       model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
   }       lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
   else  hstepm=estepm;         and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */       ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.       j<i nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim       j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.       Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size       sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
      and note for a fixed period like k years */       Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the       the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it    */
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if    double s1, lnpijopii;
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same    /*double t34;*/
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.    int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
   */  
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
   agelim = AGESUP;        for(j=1; j<i;j++){
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */          for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */            /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */            lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);          }
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);          ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
         }
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */          for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);            /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
       }            lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);    /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);          }
           ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
       if (popbased==1) {        }
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      }
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];      
       }      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
          s1=0;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){        for(j=1; j<i; j++){
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)          /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];        }
         }        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
       }          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
              /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */        }
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);          ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);        /* Computing other pijs */
          for(j=1; j<i; j++)
       if (popbased==1) {          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
       }        /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
       } /* end i */
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){      
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)        for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];          ps[ii][jj]=0;
         }          ps[ii][ii]=1;
       }        }
       }
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)      
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];      /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
         }      /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
     } /* End theta */      /*  printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
       /*   } */
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      /*   printf("\n "); */
       /* } */
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)      /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)      /*
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)        for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];        goto end;*/
       return ps;
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */  }
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;  
   double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,int nrl, int nrh, int ncl, int nch, int ncolol, int ncoloh, double **b)
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){  {
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){    /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);       b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;    int i, j, k;
       }    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
     }      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++){
         out[i][k]=0.;
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );        for(j=ncl; j<=nch; j++)
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){      }
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);    return out;
       }  }
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");  
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);  
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  {
   } /* End age */    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
         'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
        (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
 }       for the memory).
        Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/       included manually here. 
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)  
 {       */
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */  
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    int i, j, d, h, k;
   double **newm;    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
   double **dnewm,**doldm;    double **newm;
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;  
   int k, cptcode;    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
   double *xp;    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
   double *gp, *gm;      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   double **gradg, **trgradg;        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   double age,agelim;        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   int theta;      }
        /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalence's limit\n");    for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        newm=savm;
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");        cov[1]=1.;
         cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
   xp=vector(1,npar);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) 
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
            cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
   agelim = AGESUP;  
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);        savm=oldm;
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);        oldm=newm;
       }
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
       }          /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);        }
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];    } /* end h */
      /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */    return po;
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  }
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);  
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  #ifdef NLOPT
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];    double  myfunc(unsigned n, const double *p1, double *grad, void *pd){
     double fret;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double *xt;
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];    int j;
     } /* End theta */    myfunc_data *d2 = (myfunc_data *) pd;
   /* xt = (p1-1); */
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);    xt=vector(1,n); 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)   xt[j]=p1[j-1]; /* xt[1]=p1[0] */
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    fret=(d2->function)(xt); /*  p xt[1]@8 is fine */
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];    /* fret=(*func)(xt); /\*  p xt[1]@8 is fine *\/ */
     printf("Function = %.12lf ",fret);
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) printf(" %d %.8lf", j, xt[j]); 
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;    printf("\n");
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);   free_vector(xt,1,n);
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);    return fret;
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  }
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */  #endif
   
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  double func( double *x)
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));  {
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);    double **out;
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
   } /* End age */    int s1, s2;
     double bbh, survp;
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);    long ipmx;
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    /*extern weight */
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
     /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
 }    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
       printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/    */
 void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)  
 {    ++countcallfunc;
   int i, j,  i1, k1, l1;  
   int k2, l2, j1,  z1;    cov[1]=1.;
   int k=0,l, cptcode;  
   int first=1;    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2;  
   double **dnewm,**doldm;    if(mle==1){
   double *xp;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   double *gp, *gm;        /* Computes the values of the ncovmodel covariates of the model
   double **gradg, **trgradg;           depending if the covariates are fixed or variying (age dependent) and stores them in cov[]
   double **mu;           Then computes with function pmij which return a matrix p[i][j] giving the elementary probability
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];           to be observed in j being in i according to the model.
   double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */         */
   int theta;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++){ /* Simple and product covariates without age* products */
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];          cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];        }
   char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];        /* In model V2+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2 Tvar[1] is V2, Tvar[2=V1*V4] 
            is 6, Tvar[3=age*V3] should not be computed because of age Tvar[4=V3*V2] 
   double ***varpij;           has been calculated etc */
         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   }            }
   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);            newm=savm;
   if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   }              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2]; /* Tage[kk] gives the data-covariate associated with age */
   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");            }
   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);            savm=oldm;
   }            oldm=newm;
   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);          } /* end mult */
   printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);        
   printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);          /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
            /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
   fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");           * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
            * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
            * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)           * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);           */
       fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
       fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
     }            bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");          /* bias bh is positive if real duration
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");           */
   xp=vector(1,npar);          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known 
   mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);               then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to 
   varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);               die between last step unit time and current  step unit time, 
   first=1;               which is also equal to probability to die before dh 
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {               minus probability to die before dh-stepm . 
     printf("Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
     exit(0);          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
   }          health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
   else{          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
   }          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL) {          introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
     printf("Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
     exit(0);          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
   }          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
   else{          and month of death but the probability to survive from last
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<H2> Computing matrix of variance-covariance of step probabilities</h2>\n");          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> We have drawn ellipsoids of confidence around the p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf> to understand the covariance between two incidences. They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> We have drawn x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 where x is the column vector (pij,pkl). It means that if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2X2) matrix would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 standard deviations wide on each axis. <br> When both incidences are correlated we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix and made the appropriate rotation.<br> \n");          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
           mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
   }          which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
   cov[1]=1;          lower mortality.
   j=cptcoveff;            */
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}          /* If, at the beginning of the maximization mostly, the
   j1=0;             cumulative probability or probability to be dead is
   for(k1=1; k1<=1;k1++){             constant (ie = 1) over time d, the difference is equal to
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){             0.  out[s1][3] = savm[s1][3]: probability, being at state
     j1++;             s1 at precedent wave, to be dead a month before current
              wave is equal to probability, being at state s1 at
     if  (cptcovn>0) {             precedent wave, to be dead at mont of the current
       fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");             wave. Then the observed probability (that this person died)
       fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");             is null according to current estimated parameter. In fact,
       fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");             it should be very low but not zero otherwise the log go to
       fprintf(fichtm, "\n<h4>********** Variable</h4>\n ");             infinity.
       fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");          */
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);  /* #ifdef INFINITYORIGINAL */
       fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#");  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);  /* #else */
       fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#");  /*        if ((out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]) < mytinydouble)  */
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);  /*          lli=log(mytinydouble); */
       fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#");  /*        else */
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, "# V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
       fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#");  /* #endif */
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);              lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
       fprintf(fichtm, "**********\n#");  
     }          } else if  (s2==-2) {
                for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
         cov[2]=age;            /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {            lli= log(survp);
           cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];          }
         }          
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];          else if  (s2==-4) { 
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)            for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)  
           cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
                    lli= log(survp); 
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));          } 
         trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);  
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));          else if  (s2==-5) { 
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)  
                  survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){            lli= log(survp); 
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)          } 
             xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          
                    else{
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
                      /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
           k=0;          } 
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
               k=k+1;          /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
               gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];          ipmx +=1;
             }          sw += weight[i];
           }          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                    /* if (lli < log(mytinydouble)){ */
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)          /*   printf("Close to inf lli = %.10lf <  %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[%d][i]=%d s1=%d s2=%d\n", lli,log(mytinydouble), i, mi,mw[mi][i], s[mw[mi][i]][i], s1,s2); */
             xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Close to inf lli = %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[mw[mi][i]][i]=%d\n", lli, i, mi,s[mw[mi][i]][i]); */
              /* } */
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);        } /* end of wave */
           k=0;      } /* end of individual */
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){    }  else if(mle==2){
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
               k=k+1;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
               gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
             }          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
           }            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                    oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];              }
         }          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
             newm=savm;
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
             trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                    }
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                    savm=oldm;
         pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);            oldm=newm;
                  } /* end mult */
         k=0;        
         for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
             k=k+1;          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
             mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
           }          ipmx +=1;
         }          sw += weight[i];
         for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)        } /* end of wave */
             varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];      } /* end of individual */
     }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
         /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
      }*/          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);            }
           for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)            newm=savm;
           fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);            }
         }            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         i=0;                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
         for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){            savm=oldm;
           for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){            oldm=newm;
             i=i++;          } /* end mult */
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);        
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
             for (j=1; j<=i;j++){          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
               fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
               fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
             }          ipmx +=1;
           }          sw += weight[i];
         }/* end of loop for state */          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
       } /* end of loop for age */        } /* end of wave */
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/      } /* end of individual */
       for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
         for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
           if(l1==k1) continue;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
           i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
           for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
               if(l2==k2) continue;              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
               j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
               if(j<=i) continue;            }
               for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                 if ((int)age %5==0){            newm=savm;
                   v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                   v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                   mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;            }
                   mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;          
                   /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   lc1=(v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12));                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   lc2=(v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12));            savm=oldm;
                   printf("Var %.4e %.4e cov %.4e Eigen %.3e %.3e\n",v1,v2,cv12,lc1,lc2);            oldm=newm;
                   /* Eigen vectors */          } /* end mult */
                   v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));        
                   v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11);          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                   v12=-v21;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
                   v22=v11;          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
                   /*printf(fignu*/            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
                   /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */          }else{
                   /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v21*lc2*sin(t) */            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
                   if(first==1){          }
                     first=0;          ipmx +=1;
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;set nolabel");          sw += weight[i];
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k2,l2,k1,l1);          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
                     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"varpijgr%s%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">varpijgr%s%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k2,l2,k1,l1,optionfilefiname,k2,l2,k1,l1,optionfilefiname,k2,l2,k1,l1);        } /* end of wave */
                     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"varpijgr%s%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">, ",optionfilefiname,k2,l2,k1,l1);      } /* end of individual */
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varpijgr%s%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",optionfilefiname,k2,l2,k1,l1);    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu2,mu1);      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k2,l2,k1,l1);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(-%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) t \"%d\"",\        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v21,sqrt(lc2), \          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),(int) age);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   }else{              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                     first=0;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k2,l2,k1,l1);            }
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu2,mu1);          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(-%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) t \"%d\"",\            newm=savm;
                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v21,sqrt(lc2), \            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),(int) age);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   }/* if first */              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                 } /* age mod 5 */            }
               } /* end loop age */          
               fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varpijgr%s%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",optionfilefiname,k2,l2,k1,l1);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
               first=1;                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
             } /*l12 */            savm=oldm;
           } /* k12 */            oldm=newm;
         } /*l1 */          } /* end mult */
       }/* k1 */        
     } /* loop covariates */          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));          ipmx +=1;
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);          sw += weight[i];
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
   }        } /* end of wave */
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      } /* end of individual */
   fclose(ficresprob);    } /* End of if */
   fclose(ficresprobcov);    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
   fclose(ficresprobcor);    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
   fclose(ficgp);    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
   fclose(fichtm);    return -l;
 }  }
   
   /*************** log-likelihood *************/
 /******************* Printing html file ***********/  double funcone( double *x)
 void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \  {
                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
                   int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
                   int popforecast, int estepm ,\    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \    double **out;
                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;    double llt;
   /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/    int s1, s2;
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL)    {    double bbh, survp;
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);    /*extern weight */
   }    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
     /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li>Result files (first order: no variance)<br>\n    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
  - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>\n    */
  - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>\n    cov[1]=1.;
  - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months):  
    <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>\n</li>", \    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,fileres,fileres,stepm,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,estepm,fileres,fileres);  
     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li> Result files (second order: variances)<br>\n      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
  - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
  - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"prob%s\">prob%s</a> <br>\n        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
  - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcov%s\">probcov%s</a> <br>\n          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
  - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcor%s\">probcor%s</a> <br>\n            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
  - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\n            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
  - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\n          }
  - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\n",rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres, estepm, fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           newm=savm;
  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);          }
  else          /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model);          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
 fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, */
  m=cptcoveff;          /*           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); */
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}          savm=oldm;
           oldm=newm;
  jj1=0;        } /* end mult */
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){        
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
      jj1++;        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
      if (cptcovn > 0) {        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");        /* bias is positive if real duration
        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);         */
        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
      }          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
      /* Pij */        } else if  (s2==-2) {
      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before: pe%s%d1.png<br>          for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
 <img src=\"pe%s%d1.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);                survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
      /* Quasi-incidences */          lli= log(survp);
      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: pe%s%d2.png<br>        }else if (mle==1){
 <img src=\"pe%s%d2.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
        /* Stable prevalence in each health state */        } else if(mle==2){
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br>        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
        }        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident        } else{  /* mle=0 back to 1 */
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.png <br>          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);            /*lli=log(out[s1][s2]); */ /* Original formula */
      }        } /* End of if */
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {        ipmx +=1;
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.png <br>        sw += weight[i];
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
      }        /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and        if(globpr){
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.png<br>          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
 <img src=\"e%s%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
    }                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
  }                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
 fclose(fichtm);          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
 }            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
             fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
 /******************* Gnuplot file **************/          }
 void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
         }
   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;      } /* end of wave */
   int ng;    } /* end of individual */
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
   }    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
     if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
 #ifdef windows      gipmx=ipmx;
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);      gsw=sw;
 #endif    }
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    return -l;
    }
  /* 1eme*/  
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {  
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {  /*************** function likelione ***********/
   void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
 #ifdef windows  {
      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);       the selection of individuals/waves and
 #endif       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
 #ifdef unix       Plotting could be done.
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);     */
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres);    int k;
 #endif  
     if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
 }        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {      }
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
 }      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");      fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    }
 }    
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
 #ifdef unix    if(*globpri !=0){
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n");      fclose(ficresilk);
 #endif      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
    }      fflush(fichtm); 
   }    } 
   /*2 eme*/    return;
   }
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {  
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);  
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);  /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
      
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
       k=2*i;  {
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    int i,j, iter=0;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    double **xi;
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    double fret;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
 }      /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");  
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);  #ifdef NLOPT
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    int creturn;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {    nlopt_opt opt;
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");    /* double lb[9] = { -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL }; /\* lower bounds *\/ */
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");    double *lb;
 }      double minf; /* the minimum objective value, upon return */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");    double * p1; /* Shifted parameters from 0 instead of 1 */
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);    myfunc_data dinst, *d = &dinst;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {  #endif
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");  
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");  
 }      xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
     }        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   }    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
      strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
   /*3eme*/    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
     if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);    }
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
       /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
  for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
 fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
 fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);  #ifdef POWELL
  for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
 fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);  #endif
   
 */  #ifdef NLOPT
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {  #ifdef NEWUOA
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);    opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_NEWUOA,npar);
   #else
       }    opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_BOBYQA,npar);
     }  #endif
   }    lb=vector(0,npar-1);
      for (i=0;i<npar;i++) lb[i]= -HUGE_VAL;
   /* CV preval stat */    nlopt_set_lower_bounds(opt, lb);
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    nlopt_set_initial_step1(opt, 0.1);
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {    
       k=3;    p1= (p+1); /*  p *(p+1)@8 and p *(p1)@8 are equal p1[0]=p[1] */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"p%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    d->function = func;
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);    printf(" Func %.12lf \n",myfunc(npar,p1,NULL,d));
     nlopt_set_min_objective(opt, myfunc, d);
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)    nlopt_set_xtol_rel(opt, ftol);
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);    if ((creturn=nlopt_optimize(opt, p1, &minf)) < 0) {
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);      printf("nlopt failed! %d\n",creturn); 
          }
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;    else {
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);      printf("found minimum after %d evaluations (NLOPT=%d)\n", countcallfunc ,NLOPT);
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {      printf("found minimum at f(%g,%g) = %0.10g\n", p[0], p[1], minf);
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;      iter=1; /* not equal */
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);    }
       }    nlopt_destroy(opt);
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);    #endif
     }    free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
   }      fclose(ficrespow);
      printf("#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
   /* proba elementaires */    fprintf(ficlog,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){  
       if (k != i) {  }
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){  
          /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
           jk++;  {
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
         }    double **hess;
       }    int i, j;
     }    int *indx;
    }  
     double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/    double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk,ng);    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
        if (ng==2)    double gompertz(double p[]);
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
        else  
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
        i=1;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
          k3=i;      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
          for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {     
            if (k != k2){       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
              if(ng==2)      
                fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);      /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
              else          printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
                fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);    }
              ij=1;    
              for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
                if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);        if (j>i) { 
                  ij++;          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
                }          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
                else          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);          
              }          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
              fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
                      }
              for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){        }
                fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);    }
                ij=1;    printf("\n");
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {  
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
                    ij++;    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
                  }    
                  else    a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);    y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                }    x=vector(1,npar);
                fprintf(ficgp,")");    indx=ivector(1,npar);
              }    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
              fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
              i=i+ncovmodel;  
            }    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
          }      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
        }      x[j]=1;
      }      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
    }      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
    fclose(ficgp);        matcov[i][j]=x[i];
 }  /* end gnuplot */      }
     }
   
 /*************** Moving average **************/    printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
 void movingaverage(double agedeb, double fage,double ageminpar, double ***mobaverage){    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
   int i, cpt, cptcod;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
     for (agedeb=ageminpar; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++)        printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)      }
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;      printf("\n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     for (agedeb=ageminpar+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){    }
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){  
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){    /* Recompute Inverse */
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
           }    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;  
         }    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
       }  
     }    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
          for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
 }      x[j]=1;
       lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
 /************** Forecasting ******************/        y[i][j]=x[i];
 prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
          fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;      }
   int *popage;      printf("\n");
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;    }
   double ***p3mat;    */
   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];  
     free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
  agelim=AGESUP;    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
 calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;    free_vector(x,1,npar);
     free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
    
    
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");  }
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);  
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
   }  {
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);    int i;
     int l=1, lmax=20;
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;    double k1,k2;
     double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
   if (mobilav==1) {    double res;
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, ageminpar, mobaverage);    double fx;
   }    int k=0,kmax=10;
     double l1;
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;  
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    fx=func(x);
      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
   agelim=AGESUP;    for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum */
        l1=pow(10,l);
   hstepm=1;      delts=delt;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);        delt = delta*(l1*k);
   anprojmean=yp;        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);        k1=func(p2)-fx;   /* Might be negative if too close to the theoretical maximum */
   mprojmean=yp;        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);        k2=func(p2)-fx;
   jprojmean=yp;        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;        
    #ifdef DEBUGHESS
   fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
          fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){  #endif
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
       k=k+1;        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");          k=kmax;
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {        }
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
       }          k=kmax; l=lmax*10;
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");        }
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);          delts=delt;
              }
            }
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=(anproj2-anproj1);cpt++) {    }
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");    delti[theta]=delts;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);      return res; 
     
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){  }
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);  
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;  double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
            {
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    int i;
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    int l=1, lmax=20;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);      double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
            double p2[MAXPARM+1];
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    int k;
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {  
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f %.f ",anproj1+cpt,agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);    fx=func(x);
             }    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
                 if (mobilav==1)      k1=func(p2)-fx;
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 else {      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
                 }      k2=func(p2)-fx;
                    
               }      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);      k3=func(p2)-fx;
                            
               }      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
             }      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
           }      k4=func(p2)-fx;
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
         }  #ifdef DEBUG
       }      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
     }      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   }  #endif
            }
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    return res;
   }
   fclose(ficresf);  
 }  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
 /************** Forecasting ******************/  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
 populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){  { 
      int i,imax,j,k; 
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;    double big,dum,sum,temp; 
   int *popage;    double *vv; 
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;   
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;    vv=vector(1,n); 
   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;    *d=1.0; 
   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
       big=0.0; 
   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
   agelim=AGESUP;      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
   calagedate=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
      } 
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
        for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
          sum=a[i][j]; 
   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
   strcat(filerespop,fileres);        a[i][j]=sum; 
   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {      } 
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);      big=0.0; 
   }      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);        sum=a[i][j]; 
         for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
         a[i][j]=sum; 
   if (mobilav==1) {        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          big=dum; 
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, ageminpar, mobaverage);          imax=i; 
   }        } 
       } 
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;      if (j != imax) { 
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
            dum=a[imax][k]; 
   agelim=AGESUP;          a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
            a[j][k]=dum; 
   hstepm=1;        } 
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;        *d = -(*d); 
          vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
   if (popforecast==1) {      } 
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {      indx[j]=imax; 
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
     }      if (j != n) { 
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);      } 
        } 
     i=1;      free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;  ;
      } 
     imx=i;  
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];  void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
   }  { 
     int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){    double sum; 
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){   
       k=k+1;    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");      ip=indx[i]; 
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {      sum=b[ip]; 
         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      b[ip]=b[i]; 
       }      if (ii) 
       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");      else if (sum) ii=i; 
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);      b[i]=sum; 
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");    } 
          for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {      sum=b[i]; 
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);        for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
              b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){    } 
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);  } 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;  
            void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);  {
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#%s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,fullversion,strstart);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);    }
          
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){  /************ Frequencies ********************/
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);  {  /* Some frequencies */
             }    
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;    int first;
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                  double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
                 if (mobilav==1)    double *pp, **prop;
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
                 else {    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];    
                 }    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
               }    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){    strcpy(fileresp,"p");
                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
               }      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
             }      exit(0);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){    }
               kk1=0.;    freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){    j1=0;
                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];    
                 }    j=cptcoveff;
                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedate+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
             }  
     first=1;
             if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)  
               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);    /* for(k1=1; k1<=j ; k1++){ */  /* Loop on covariates */
           }    /*  for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */ /* Now it is 2 */
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    /*    j1++; */
         }    for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){
       }        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
            scanf("%d", i);*/
   /******/        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
           for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);                freq[i][jk][m]=0;
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){        
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
                      prop[i][m]=0;
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;        dateintsum=0;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);          k2cpt=0;
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {          bool=1;
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);          if  (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
             }            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)       
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]){
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;                  /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                              bool=0;
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];                    /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtab[%d][%d]=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtab[%d][%d]=%d, j1=%d\n", 
               }                  bool,i,z1, z1, Tvaraff[z1],i,covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i],j1,z1,codtab[j1][z1],
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);                  j1,z1,nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]],j1);*/
             }                /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtab[7][3]=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
           }              } 
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          }
         }   
       }          if (bool==1){
    }            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
   }              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
                /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
                 if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
   if (popforecast==1) {                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);                if (m<lastpass) {
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
   }                }
   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);                
   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
   fclose(ficrespop);                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
 }                  k2cpt++;
                 }
 /***********************************************/                /*}*/
 /**************** Main Program *****************/            }
 /***********************************************/          }
         } /* end i */
 int main(int argc, char *argv[])         
 {        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
         pstamp(ficresp);
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;        if  (cptcovn>0) {
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
   double fret;          fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable "); 
   double **xi,tmp,delta;          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n#");
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */        }
   double ***p3mat;        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
   int *indx;          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];        
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */          if(i==iagemax+3){
   int c,  h , cpt,l;            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
   int ju,jl, mi;          }else{
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;            if(first==1){
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;              first=0;
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;              printf("See log file for details...\n");
   int hstepm, nhstepm;            }
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1, calagedate;            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
           }
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   double ftolpl=FTOL;            for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
   double **prlim;              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
   double *severity;          }
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   double  *p;            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
   double *delti; /* Scale */              if(first==1){
   double ***eij, ***vareij;                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */              }
   double *epj, vepp;              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
   double kk1, kk2;            }else{
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;              if(first==1)
                  printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
               fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];            }
           }
   
   char z[1]="c", occ;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
 #include <sys/time.h>            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
 #include <time.h>              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];          }       
            for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   /* long total_usecs;            pos += pp[jk];
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;            posprop += prop[jk][i];
            }
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   getcwd(pathcd, size);            if(pos>=1.e-5){
               if(first==1)
   printf("\n%s",version);                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
   if(argc <=1){              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");            }else{
     scanf("%s",pathtot);              if(first==1)
   }                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   else{              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);            }
   }            if( i <= iagemax){
   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/              if(pos>=1.e-5){
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
               }
   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);              else
    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
   chdir(path);            }
   replace(pathc,path);          }
           
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
             for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
   strcpy(fileres,"r");              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);              if(first==1)
   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
                 fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
   /*---------arguments file --------*/              }
           if(i <= iagemax)
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);          if(first==1)
     goto end;            printf("Others in log...\n");
   }          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
   strcpy(filereso,"o");        /*}*/
   strcat(filereso,fileres);    }
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;   
   }    fclose(ficresp);
     free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* End of Freq */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  }
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);  /************ Prevalence ********************/
   }  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  {  
     /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);    */
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){   
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  
     puts(line);    double **prop;
     fputs(line,ficparo);    double posprop; 
   }    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    int iagemin, iagemax;
      int first; /** to stop verbosity which is redirected to log file */
      
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);    iagemin= (int) agemin;
   cptcovn=0;    iagemax= (int) agemax;
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
     prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */    j1=0;
      
   /* Read guess parameters */    /*j=cptcoveff;*/
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    first=1;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){
     puts(line);      /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
     fputs(line,ficparo);        j1++;*/
   }        
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);            prop[i][m]=0.0;
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)       
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);          bool=1;
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);          if  (cptcovn>0) {
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);                bool=0;
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);          } 
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);          if (bool==1) { 
       }            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
       printf("\n");              if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
     }                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
                  if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
                   /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
   p=param[1][1];                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                    prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */                } 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){              }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);            } /* end selection of waves */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          }
     puts(line);        }
     fputs(line,ficparo);        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
   }          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);            posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
           } 
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);          
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){            if( i <=  iagemax){ 
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){              if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);              } else{
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);                if(first==1){
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){                  first=0;
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);                  printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);                }
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);              }
       }            } 
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");          }/* end jk */ 
       printf("\n");        }/* end i */ 
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");      /*} *//* end i1 */
     }    } /* end j1 */
   }    
   delti=delti3[1][1];    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
      /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  }  /* End of prevalence */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
   }  {
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
         Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){       dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
     printf("%s",str);       */
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);  
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){    int i, mi, m;
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);    int first;
     }    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");    double sum=0.;
     printf("\n");    first=0;
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");    jmin=100000;
   }    jmax=-1;
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)    jmean=0.;
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];      mi=0;
          m=firstpass;
   printf("\n");      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
         if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
           mw[++mi][i]=m;
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/        if(m >=lastpass)
      strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */          break;
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/        else
      strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */          m++;
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */      }/* end while */
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
     }        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);           /* Only death is a correct wave */
            mw[mi][i]=m;
     /*-------- data file ----------*/      }
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {  
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;      wav[i]=mi;
     }      if(mi==0){
         nbwarn++;
     n= lastobs;        if(first==0){
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);          printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);          first=1;
     num=ivector(1,n);        }
     moisnais=vector(1,n);        if(first==1){
     annais=vector(1,n);          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);        }
     andc=vector(1,n);      } /* end mi==0 */
     agedc=vector(1,n);    } /* End individuals */
     cod=ivector(1,n);  
     weight=vector(1,n);    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);        if (stepm <=0)
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);          dh[mi][i]=1;
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);        else{
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);              if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
               if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
     i=1;              else if(j<0){
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {                nberr++;
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {                printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                        j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){                printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
           strcpy(line,stra);                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              }
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              k=k+1;
         }              if (j >= jmax){
                        jmax=j;
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);                ijmax=i;
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              }
               if (j <= jmin){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);                jmin=j;
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);                ijmin=i;
               }
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              sum=sum+j;
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){              /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
         }            }
         num[i]=atol(stra);          }
                  else{
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){            j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/  /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
   
         i=i+1;            k=k+1;
       }            if (j >= jmax) {
     }              jmax=j;
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);              ijmax=i;
        scanf("%d",i);*/            }
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */            else if (j <= jmin){
               jmin=j;
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){              ijmin=i;
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;            }
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
     }*/            if(j<0){
    /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){              nberr++;
      if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1;              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
      printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
              }
              sum=sum+j;
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/          }
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);          jk= j/stepm;
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);          jl= j -jk*stepm;
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
   Tage=ivector(1,15);                  if(jl==0){
                  dh[mi][i]=jk;
   if (strlen(model) >1){              bh[mi][i]=0;
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
     j=nbocc(model,'+');                    * to avoid the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
     cptcovn=j+1;              bh[mi][i]=ju;
     cptcovprod=j1;            }
              }else{
     strcpy(modelsav,model);            if(jl <= -ju){
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){              dh[mi][i]=jk;
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
       goto end;                                   * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
     }                                   */
                }
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){            else{
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);              bh[mi][i]=ju;
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/            }
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/            if(dh[mi][i]==0){
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
           cptcovprod--;            }
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');          } /* end if mle */
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);        }
           cptcovage++;      } /* end wave */
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;    }
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/    jmean=sum/k;
         }    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %d) Max=%d (%d) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
           cptcovprod--;   }
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');  
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
           cptcovage++;  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx, int *Ndum)
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;  {
         }    /**< Uses cptcovn+2*cptcovprod as the number of covariates */
         else {    /*      Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  find 'n' in Vn and stores in Tvar. If model=V2+V1 Tvar[1]=2 and Tvar[2]=1 
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');     * Boring subroutine which should only output nbcode[Tvar[j]][k]
           Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;     * Tvar[5] in V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is 2 (V2)
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');     * nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]= 
           Tprod[k1]=i;    */
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);  
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);    int ij=1, k=0, j=0, i=0, maxncov=NCOVMAX;
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];    int modmaxcovj=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];    int cptcode=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)    int modmincovj=0; /* Modality min of covariates j */
             covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];  
           k1++;  
           k2=k2+2;    cptcoveff=0; 
         }   
       }    for (k=-1; k < maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
       else {    for (k=1; k <= maxncov; k++) ncodemax[k]=0; /* Horrible constant again replaced by NCOVMAX */
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/  
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/    /* Loop on covariates without age and products */
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovs); j++) { /* model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4 : V1 + V3 = 2 only */
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Lopp on individuals: reads the data file to get the maximum value of the 
       }                                 modality of this covariate Vj*/ 
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);          ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij=0 or 1 or -1. Value of the covariate Tvar[j] for individual i
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);                                      * If product of Vn*Vm, still boolean *:
         scanf("%d",i);*/                                      * If it was coded 1, 2, 3, 4 should be splitted into 3 boolean variables
     }                                      * 1 => 0 0 0, 2 => 0 0 1, 3 => 0 1 1, 4=1 0 0   */
 }        /* Finds for covariate j, n=Tvar[j] of Vn . ij is the
                                          modality of the nth covariate of individual i. */
   /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);        if (ij > modmaxcovj)
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);          modmaxcovj=ij; 
   scanf("%d ",i);*/        else if (ij < modmincovj) 
     fclose(fic);          modmincovj=ij; 
         if ((ij < -1) && (ij > NCOVMAX)){
     /*  if(mle==1){*/          printf( "Error: minimal is less than -1 or maximal is bigger than %d. Exiting. \n", NCOVMAX );
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/          exit(1);
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;        }else
     }        Ndum[ij]++; /*counts and stores the occurence of this modality 0, 1, -1*/
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/        /*  If coded 1, 2, 3 , counts the number of 1 Ndum[1], number of 2, Ndum[2], etc */
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);        /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
         /* getting the maximum value of the modality of the covariate
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {           (should be 0 or 1 now) Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is coded 0 and
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {           female is 1, then modmaxcovj=1.*/
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){      }
          anint[m][i]=9999;      printf(" Minimal and maximal values of %d th covariate V%d: min=%d max=%d \n", j, Tvar[j], modmincovj, modmaxcovj);
          s[m][i]=-1;      cptcode=modmaxcovj;
        }      /* Ndum[0] = frequency of 0 for model-covariate j, Ndum[1] frequency of 1 etc. */
      if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999 & s[m][i]>nlstate) s[m][i]=-1;     /*for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {*/
       }      for (i=modmincovj;  i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i=-1 ? 0 and 1*//* For each value of the modality of model-cov j */
     }        printf("Frequencies of covariates %d V%d %d\n", j, Tvar[j], Ndum[i]);
         if( Ndum[i] != 0 ){ /* Counts if nobody answered, empty modality */
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {          ncodemax[j]++;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of non-null modalities of the j th covariate. */
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);        }
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){        /* In fact  ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables only) but it could be more for
         if(s[m][i] >0){           historical reasons: 3 if coded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and Ndum[2]=0 */
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {      } /* Ndum[-1] number of undefined modalities */
             if(agedc[i]>0)  
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)      /* j is a covariate, n=Tvar[j] of Vn; Fills nbcode */
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];      /* For covariate j, modalities could be 1, 2, 3, 4. If Ndum[2]=0 ncodemax[j] is not 4 but 3 */
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/      /* If Ndum[3}= 635; Ndum[4]=0; Ndum[5]=0; Ndum[6]=27; Ndum[7]=125;
            else {         modmincovj=3; modmaxcovj = 7;
               if (andc[i]!=9999){         There are only 3 modalities non empty (or 2 if 27 is too few) : ncodemax[j]=3;
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);         which will be coded 0, 1, 2 which in binary on 3-1 digits are 0=00 1=01, 2=10; defining two dummy 
               agev[m][i]=-1;         variables V1_1 and V1_2.
               }         nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
             }         nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]=0;
           }         nbcode[Tvar[j]][2]=1;
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */         nbcode[Tvar[j]][3]=2;
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);      */
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)      ij=1; /* ij is similar to i but can jumps over null modalities */
               agev[m][i]=1;      for (i=modmincovj; i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i= 1 to 2 for dichotomous, or from 1 to 3 */
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){        for (k=0; k<= cptcode; k++) { /* k=-1 ? k=0 to 1 *//* Could be 1 to 4 */
               agemin=agev[m][i];          /*recode from 0 */
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/          if (Ndum[k] != 0) { /* If at least one individual responded to this modality k */
             }            nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;  /* stores the modality in an array nbcode. 
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){                                       k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex 
               agemax=agev[m][i];                                       then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/            ij++;
             }          }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/          if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/        }  /* end of loop on */
           }      } /* end of loop on modality */ 
           else { /* =9 */    } /* end of loop on model-covariate j. nbcode[Tvarj][1]=0 and nbcode[Tvarj][2]=1 sets the value of covariate j*/  
             agev[m][i]=1;    
             s[m][i]=-1;   for (k=-1; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0; 
           }    
         }    for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { /* -2, cste and age */ 
         else /*= 0 Unknown */     /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/ 
           agev[m][i]=1;     ij=Tvar[i]; /* Tvar might be -1 if status was unknown */ 
       }     Ndum[ij]++; 
       } 
     }  
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {   ij=1;
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){   for (i=0; i<=  maxncov-1; i++) { /* modmaxcovj is unknown here. Only Ndum[2(V2),3(age*V3), 5(V3*V2) 6(V1*V4) */
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {     /*printf("Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");       if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
           goto end;       /*printf("diff Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
         }       Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing (unclear) */
       }       ij++;
     }     }else
          Tvaraff[ij]=0;
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);   }
    ij--;
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);   cptcoveff=ij; /*Number of total covariates*/
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);  
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);  }
     free_vector(annais,1,n);  
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);  
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);  
     free_vector(andc,1,n);  void evsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
   
      {
     wav=ivector(1,imx);    /* Health expectancies, no variances */
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm;
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
        double age, agelim, hf;
     /* Concatenates waves */    double ***p3mat;
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);    double eip;
   
     pstamp(ficreseij);
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);    fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
       ncodemax[1]=1;    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
              fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);      }
    h=0;      fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);    }
      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){  
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){    
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){    if(estepm < stepm){
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
            h++;    }
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;    else  hstepm=estepm;   
            /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
          }     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
        }     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
      }     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
    }     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
    /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
       codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
    /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
       for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
       printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
       }  
       printf("\n");    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
       }    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
       scanf("%d",i);*/       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
           nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
     /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
           survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
           means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    */
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */  
          agelim=AGESUP;
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]    /* If stepm=6 months */
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
       
     if(mle==1){  /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
     }    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
        /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
     /*--------- results files --------------*/    nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
    
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
    jk=1;      nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
    printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){  
        if (k != i)      /* If stepm=6 months */
          {      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);         in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);      
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepma,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);      
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
              jk++;      
            }      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
            printf("\n");      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");      
          }      /* Computing expectancies */
      }      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
    }        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
  if(mle==1){          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */            
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
  }  
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");          }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");  
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
         if (j!=i) {        eip=0;
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);          eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){          fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);        }
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);        fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
             jk++;      }
           }      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
           printf("\n");      
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");    }
         }    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
       }    printf("\n");
      }    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        
     k=1;  }
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");  
     printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){  
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;  {
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;    /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);     to initial status i, ei. .
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/    */
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
       printf("%3d",i);    int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){    double age, agelim, hf;
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);    double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);    double **dnewm,**doldm;
       }    double *xp, *xm;
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");    double **gp, **gm;
       printf("\n");    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
       k++;    int theta;
     }  
        double eip, vip;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  
       ungetc(c,ficpar);    varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    xp=vector(1,npar);
       puts(line);    xm=vector(1,npar);
       fputs(line,ficparo);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     }    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    
     estepm=0;    pstamp(ficresstdeij);
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
     if (fage <= 2) {    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
       bage = ageminpar;      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
       fage = agemaxpar;        fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
     }      fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
        }
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);  
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);    pstamp(ficrescveij);
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
     puts(line);        cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
     fputs(line,ficparo);        for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
   }          for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
   ungetc(c,ficpar);            cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
              if(cptj2 <= cptj)
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2);              fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);          }
  fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);      }
          fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    if(estepm < stepm){
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     puts(line);    }
     fputs(line,ficparo);    else  hstepm=estepm;   
   }    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
   ungetc(c,ficpar);     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
       * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
      * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
    dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
    dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
      * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
   fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);       * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
   fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);       * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
    
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
     puts(line);       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
     fputs(line,ficparo);       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
   }       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
        survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
   fscanf(ficpar,"starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilav);       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
 fprintf(ficparo,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
 fprintf(ficres,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* If stepm=6 months */
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
     puts(line);    agelim=AGESUP;
     fputs(line,ficparo);    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); 
   }    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);    
   fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);    p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);    p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);    trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
 /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);  
   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {      nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
   }      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
   fclose(ficgp);      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
  printinggnuplot(fileres, ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);  
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/      /* If stepm=6 months */
       /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);         in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");      
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);  
   }      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
       /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
   fprintf(fichtm,"<body> <font size=\"2\">%s </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n         decrease memory allocation */
 Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
 \n        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
 Total number of observations=%d <br>\n          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n          xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">        }
  <ul><li>Parameter files<br>\n        hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n        hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
  - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br></ul>\n",version,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot);    
   fclose(fichtm);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
  printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);            for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
                gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
 /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/              gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
  chdir(path);            }
            }
  free_ivector(wav,1,imx);        }
  free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);       
  free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);          for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
  free_ivector(num,1,n);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
  free_vector(agedc,1,n);            gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
  /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/          }
  fclose(ficparo);      }/* End theta */
  fclose(ficres);      
       
       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
            for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);      
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {  
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;       for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
   }        for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);          varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");  
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
          for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */            for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */              varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */        }
   k=0;      }
   agebase=ageminpar;  
   agelim=agemaxpar;      /* Computing expectancies */
   ftolpl=1.e-10;      hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
   i1=cptcoveff;      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){            
         k=k+1;            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/  
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");          }
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                eip=0.;
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){        vip=0.;
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );          eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);            vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");          fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
         }        }
       }        fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
     }      }
   fclose(ficrespl);      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
   
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/      fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {          cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;          for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
   }            for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);              cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
                if(cptj2 <= cptj)
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;                fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/            }
         }
   agelim=AGESUP;      fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */     
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    }
      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   k=0;    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
       k=k+1;    free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");    free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");  
            free_vector(xm,1,npar);
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;  }
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);    
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");  /************ Variance ******************/
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)  {
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);    /* Variance of health expectancies */
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    /* double **newm;*/
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );    /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    int movingaverage();
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);    double **dnewm,**doldm;
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
              }    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    int k;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    double *xp;
         }    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
     }    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
   }    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
     double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
   varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
     double ***p3mat;
   fclose(ficrespij);    double age,agelim, hf;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int theta;
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/    char digit[4];
   if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){    char digitp[25];
     prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);  
     if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);    char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
   }  
   else{    if(popbased==1){
     erreur=108;      if(mobilav!=0)
     printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);        strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
   }      else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
      }
     else 
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/      strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
   
   strcpy(filerest,"t");    if (mobilav!=0) {
   strcat(filerest,fileres);      mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {      if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
   }        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);      }
     }
   
   strcpy(filerese,"e");    strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
   strcat(filerese,fileres);    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
   }    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
     if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {    }
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
   }   
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
   calagedate=-1;    pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
 prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
   k=0;    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       k=k+1;        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");    }  
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");    /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  /*   } */
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");    pstamp(ficresvij);
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");    if(popbased==1)
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    else
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);          fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);  
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    xp=vector(1,npar);
        varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
        doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
      doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");  
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");    gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){    
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);    if(estepm < stepm){
         if (popbased==1) {      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    }
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];    else  hstepm=estepm;   
         }    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
            /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
         fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {       Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
             /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
           }       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
         }       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     */
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)    agelim = AGESUP;
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
         fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
         }      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       }      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
     }  
   }  
 free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
     free_vector(weight,1,n);          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   fclose(ficreseij);        }
   fclose(ficresvij);        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
   fclose(ficrest);        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   fclose(ficpar);  
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);        if (popbased==1) {
            if(mobilav ==0){
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
   strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);          }
     exit(0);        }
   }    
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   k=0;            for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){          }
       k=k+1;        }
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);           as a weighted average of prlim.
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");        */
              for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);        }    
     }        /* end probability of death */
  }  
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
   fclose(ficresvpl);          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);   
          if (popbased==1) {
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);          if(mobilav ==0){
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
            }else{ /* mobilav */ 
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          }
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);        }
    
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
           }
   fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");        }
   fclose(fichtm);        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
   fclose(ficgp);           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
             as a weighted average of prlim.
         */
   if(erreur >0)        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     printf("End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
   else   printf("End of Imach\n");           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */        }    
          /* end probability of death */
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/  
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
   /*------ End -----------*/          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
           }
  end:  
 #ifdef windows        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
   /* chdir(pathcd);*/          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
 #endif        }
  /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/  
  /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/      } /* End theta */
  /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/  
  /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
  strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);  
  strcat(plotcmd," ");      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
  strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
  system(plotcmd);          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
 #ifdef windows  
   while (z[0] != 'q') {      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
     /* chdir(path); */        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
     scanf("%s",z);    
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");  
     else if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
     else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);        for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
   }          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
 #endif  
 }      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
         for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
           for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
               vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
         }
       }
     
       /* pptj */
       matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
         for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
           varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
       /* end ppptj */
       /*  x centered again */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
    
       if (popbased==1) {
         if(mobilav ==0){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         }else{ /* mobilav */ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
         }
       }
                
       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
          computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
          as a weighted average of prlim.
       */
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
       }    
       /* end probability of death */
   
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
         }
       } 
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   
       fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
         }
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
       free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     } /* End age */
     free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240");
     /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
     /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
   */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtm); 
   }  /* end varevsij */
   
   /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
   void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
   {
     /* Variance of prevalence limit */
     /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
   
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double age,agelim;
     int theta;
     
     pstamp(ficresvpl);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     
     hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
     agelim = AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
       nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
       gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
       gp=vector(1,nlstate);
       gm=vector(1,nlstate);
   
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
       
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
   
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
       } /* End theta */
   
       trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
   
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
       matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
   
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
       free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
       free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     } /* End age */
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
   }
   
   /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
   void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
   {
     int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
     int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
     int k=0, l;
     int first=1, first1, first2;
     double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double **mu;
     double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
     double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
     int theta;
     char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
     double ***varpij;
   
     strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
     strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
     if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
     if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
     if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     }
     printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     pstamp(ficresprob);
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
     fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
   
   
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
       }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
    */
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
     varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
     first=1;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
     file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
   and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
    They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
   It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
   would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
   standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
    Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
    and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
   To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
   
     cov[1]=1;
     /* tj=cptcoveff; */
     tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
     if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     j1=0;
     for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){
       /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ */
       /*j1++;*/
         if  (cptcovn>0) {
           fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
           
           fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
           
           
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
           
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
         }
         
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
           cov[2]=age;
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
             cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];/* j1 1 2 3 4
                                                            * 1  1 1 1 1
                                                            * 2  2 1 1 1
                                                            * 3  1 2 1 1
                                                            */
             /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
           }
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
             cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
           
       
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
             
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
             
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
       
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
        
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
               gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
           }
   
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
             for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
               trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
           
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
   
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
           
           k=0;
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
               k=k+1;
               mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
             }
           }
           for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
               varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   
           /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
             for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             }*/
   
           fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
           }
           i=0;
           for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
             for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
               i++;
               fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                 /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
                 fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
                 fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
             }
           }/* end of loop for state */
         } /* end of loop for age */
         free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         
         /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
         /*
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
         */
   
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
         first1=1;first2=2;
         for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
           for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
             if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
             for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
               for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
                 if(l1==k1) continue;
                 i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                 if(i<=j) continue;
                 for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   if ((int)age %5==0){
                     v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
                     mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
                     c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                     /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
                       if(first2==1){
                         first1=0;
                       printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
                       }
                       fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
                       /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
                       /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
                     }
   
                     /* Eigen vectors */
                     v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                     /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                     v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
                     v12=-v21;
                     v22=v11;
                     tnalp=v21/v11;
                     if(first1==1){
                       first1=0;
                       printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
                     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
                     /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
                     /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                     if(first==1){
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240");
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
    :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
   %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }else{
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }/* if first */
                   } /* age mod 5 */
                 } /* end loop age */
                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
               } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
           } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
         /* } */ /* loop covariates */
     }
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fclose(ficresprob);
     fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtmcov);
   }
   
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                     int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                     double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                     double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
     int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
      <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
   </ul>");
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
    - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
              jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
              stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Population projections by age and states: \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileres,"f"),subdirf2(fileres,"f"));
   
   fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d_1.png\">%s%d_1.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d_2.png\">%s%d_2.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
          /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
          for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
            fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.png\">%s%d_%d.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_%d.png\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
          }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a> <br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), e<sup>ij</sup> are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.png <br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d_%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
   true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
    drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
    observed and cahotic prevalences: %s%d.png<br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
     int ng=0;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'vpl' files\n");
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
       for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d_%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      }
     }
     /*2 eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small size 320, 240\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
       
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
         k=2*i;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
         }   
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
       }
     }
     
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
         k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
           /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
           
         } 
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
       }
     }
     
     /* CV preval stable (period) */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
           if(i==1)
             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
           else
             fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
           fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
           for (j=1; j<= (nlstate-1) ; j ++)
             fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j);
           fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
         } /* nlstate */
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
       } /* end cpt state*/ 
     } /* end covariate */  
     
     /* proba elementaires */
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
             fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
      }
     /*goto avoid;*/
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                else
                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                  /* if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) { /\* Bug valgrind *\/ */
                  /*        /\*fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);*\/ */
                  /*        ij++; */
                  /* } */
                  /* else */
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                    /* if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) { */
                    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]); */
                    /*   ij++; */
                    /* } */
                    /* else */
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
    /* avoid: */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32];
     int i,j, k, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz(double x[])
   { 
     double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
   
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           L=L+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
    
     return -2*L*num/sump;
   }
   
   #ifdef GSL
   /******************* Gompertz_f Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz_f(const gsl_vector *v, void *params)
   { 
     double A,B,LL=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     double *x= (double *) v->data;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf\n",x[0],x[1]);
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[0]/YEARM)+x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           LL=LL+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf -2*LL*num/sump=%lf\n",x[0],x[1],-2*LL*num/sump);
    
     return -2*LL*num/sump;
   }
   #endif
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
     int i,k;
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
     fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
     for (i=1;i<=2;i++) 
       fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
     fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
   
    for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
      fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
    
     fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
   
     int ng;
   
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
   
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
     fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small size 320, 240\n set log y\n"); 
     /* fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n"); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
   
   } 
   
   int readdata(char datafile[], int firstobs, int lastobs, int *imax)
   {
   
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     FILE *fic;
     char dummy[]="                         ";
     int i=0, j=0, n=0;
     int linei, month, year,iout;
     char line[MAXLINE], linetmp[MAXLINE];
     char stra[MAXLINE], strb[MAXLINE];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
   
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
     }
   
     i=1;
     linei=0;
     while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
       linei=linei+1;
       for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
         if(line[j] == '\t')
           line[j] = ' ';
       }
       for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
         ;
       };
       line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
       if(line[0]=='#'){
         fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         continue;
       }
       trimbb(linetmp,line); /* Trims multiple blanks in line */
       strcpy(line, linetmp);
     
   
       for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb, line, ' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
         /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         s[j][i]=lval;
         
         strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
         }
         else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
           month=99;
           year=9999;
         }else{
           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         anint[j][i]= (double) year; 
         mint[j][i]= (double)month; 
         strcpy(line,stra);
       } /* ENd Waves */
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
       }
       else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       andc[i]=(double) year; 
       moisdc[i]=(double) month; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
       }
       else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.", dummy)) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       if (year==9999) {
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
   
       }
       annais[i]=(double)(year);
       moisnais[i]=(double)(month); 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       errno=0;
       dval=strtod(strb,&endptr); 
       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
         printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       weight[i]=dval; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
           printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
         strcpy(line,stra);
       }  
       lstra=strlen(stra);
        
       if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
         stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
         num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
       }
       else
         num[i]=atol(stra);
       /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
         printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
       
       i=i+1;
     } /* End loop reading  data */
   
     *imax=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
     fclose(fic);
    
     return (0);
     /* endread: */
       printf("Exiting readdata: ");
       fclose(fic);
       return (1);
   
   
   
   }
   void removespace(char *str) {
     char *p1 = str, *p2 = str;
     do
       while (*p2 == ' ')
         p2++;
     while (*p1++ == *p2++);
   }
   
   int decodemodel ( char model[], int lastobs) /**< This routine decode the model and returns:
      * Model  V1+V2+V3+V8+V7*V8+V5*V6+V8*age+V3*age
      * - cptcovt total number of covariates of the model nbocc(+)+1 = 8
      * - cptcovn or number of covariates k of the models excluding age*products =6
      * - cptcovage number of covariates with age*products =2
      * - cptcovs number of simple covariates
      * - Tvar[k] is the id of the kth covariate Tvar[1]@12 {1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 8, 3, 7, 8, 5, 6}, thus Tvar[5=V7*V8]=10
      *     which is a new column after the 9 (ncovcol) variables. 
      * - if k is a product Vn*Vm covar[k][i] is filled with correct values for each individual
      * - Tprod[l] gives the kth covariates of the product Vn*Vm l=1 to cptcovprod-cptcovage
      *    Tprod[1]@2 {5, 6}: position of first product V7*V8 is 5, and second V5*V6 is 6.
      * - Tvard[k]  p Tvard[1][1]@4 {7, 8, 5, 6} for V7*V8 and V5*V6 .
    */
   {
     int i, j, k, ks;
     int  j1, k1, k2;
     char modelsav[80];
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80];
   
     /*removespace(model);*/
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=0, k2=-1, ks=0, cptcovn=0;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /**< j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /**< j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovs=j+1-j1; /**<  Number of simple covariates V1+V2*age+V3 +V3*V4=> V1 + V3 =2  */
       cptcovt= j+1; /* Number of total covariates in the model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4=> 4*/
                     /* including age products which are counted in cptcovage.
                     * but the covariates which are products must be treated separately: ncovn=4- 2=2 (V1+V3). */
       cptcovprod=j1; /**< Number of products  V1*V2 +v3*age = 2 */
       cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age: V3*V4 =1  */
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if (strstr(model,"AGE") !=0){
         printf("Error. AGE must be in lower case 'age' model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. AGE must be in lower case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       if (strstr(model,"v") !=0){
         printf("Error. 'v' must be in upper case 'V' model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. 'v' must be in upper case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       
       /*   Design
        *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9 Weight
        *  <          ncovcol=8                >
        * Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8
        *   k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8
        *  cptcovn number of covariates (not including constant and age ) = # of + plus 1 = 7+1=8
        *  covar[k,i], value of kth covariate if not including age for individual i:
        *       covar[1][i]= (V2), covar[4][i]=(V3), covar[8][i]=(V8)
        *  Tvar[k] # of the kth covariate:  Tvar[1]=2  Tvar[4]=3 Tvar[8]=8
        *       if multiplied by age: V3*age Tvar[3=V3*age]=3 (V3) Tvar[7]=8 and 
        *  Tage[++cptcovage]=k
        *       if products, new covar are created after ncovcol with k1
        *  Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; # of the kth covariate product:  Tvar[5]=ncovcol+1=10  Tvar[6]=ncovcol+1=11
        *  Tprod[k1]=k; Tprod[1]=5 Tprod[2]= 6; gives the position of the k1th product
        *  Tvard[k1][1]=m Tvard[k1][2]=m; Tvard[1][1]=5 (V5) Tvard[1][2]=6 Tvard[2][1]=7 (V7) Tvard[2][2]=8
        *  Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
        *  Tvar[8+1]=5;Tvar[8+2]=6;Tvar[8+3]=7;Tvar[8+4]=8 inverted
        *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9  V10  V11
        *  <          ncovcol=8                >
        *       Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8    d1   d1   d2  d2
        *          k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8    9   10   11  12
        *     Tvar[k]= 2    1      3       3    10      11      8        8    5    6    7   8
        * p Tvar[1]@12={2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
        * p Tprod[1]@2={                         6, 5}
        *p Tvard[1][1]@4= {7, 8, 5, 6}
        * covar[k][i]= V2   V1      ?      V3    V5*V6?   V7*V8?  ?       V8   
        *  cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
        *How to reorganize?
        * Model V1 + V2 + V3 + V8 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V3*age + V8*age
        * Tvars {2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
        *       {2,   1,     4,      8,    5,      6,     3,       7}
        * Struct []
        */
   
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
       /* j is the number of + signs in the model V1+V2+V3 j=2 i=3 to 1 */
       /*   modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4  */
       /*  k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tage[cptcovage=1]=4 */
       /*  k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4) */
       /*  k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1) */
       /*  k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2) */
       /*  k=5 Tvar[5] */
       /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) { */
       /*  cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]]; */
       /*  } */
       /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
       /*
        * Treating invertedly V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is as if written V2*V4 +V3*age + V1 + V2 */
       for(k=cptcovt; k>=1;k--) /**< Number of covariates */
           Tvar[k]=0;
       cptcovage=0;
       for(k=1; k<=cptcovt;k++){ /* Loop on total covariates of the model */
         cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+' 
                                        modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
           cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc  Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
             /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);  /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2 */
             cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
             Tage[cptcovage]=k;  /* Tage[1] = 4 */
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=k;
           } else {  /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2  strb=V3*V2*/
             /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
             cptcovn++;
             cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
             Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
                                     because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
                                     ncovcol + k1
                                     If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
                                     Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
             cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=k;  /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2  */
             Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
             Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
             k2=k2+2;
             Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
             Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];  /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
             for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
               /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
                  covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
               covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
             }
           } /* End age is not in the model */
         } /* End if model includes a product */
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
           cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
           ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
           cptcovn++;
           Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);*/
   
   
     return (0); /* with covar[new additional covariate if product] and Tage if age */ 
     /*endread:*/
       printf("Exiting decodemodel: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
   {
     int i, m;
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           *nberr = *nberr + 1;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           (*nberr)++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0){
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999){
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               }else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
             } /* agedc > 0 */
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] < *agemin){ 
               *agemin=agev[m][i];
               printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemin);
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >*agemax){
               *agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" Max anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           (*nberr)++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           return 1;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax); 
   
     return (0);
    /* endread:*/
       printf("Exiting calandcheckages: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
   /*printf("Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
   /*fprintf(ficlog, "Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
   //#include "stdafx.h"
   //#include <stdio.h>
   //#include <tchar.h>
   //#include <windows.h>
   //#include <iostream>
   typedef BOOL(WINAPI *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS) (HANDLE, PBOOL);
   
   LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
   
   BOOL IsWow64()
   {
           BOOL bIsWow64 = FALSE;
   
           //typedef BOOL (APIENTRY *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
           //  (HANDLE, PBOOL);
   
           //LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
   
           HMODULE module = GetModuleHandle(_T("kernel32"));
           const char funcName[] = "IsWow64Process";
           fnIsWow64Process = (LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
                   GetProcAddress(module, funcName);
   
           if (NULL != fnIsWow64Process)
           {
                   if (!fnIsWow64Process(GetCurrentProcess(),
                           &bIsWow64))
                           //throw std::exception("Unknown error");
                           printf("Unknown error\n");
           }
           return bIsWow64 != FALSE;
   }
   #endif
   
   void syscompilerinfo()
    {
      /* #include "syscompilerinfo.h"*/
           /* command line Intel compiler 64bit windows:
           /GS /W3 /Gy /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O2 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" 
           /D "NDEBUG" /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo 
           /Zc:forScope /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo 
           /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch" */
           /*
           /GS /W3 /Gy /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O3 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" 
           /D "NDEBUG" /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo 
           /Zc:forScope /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo /Qparallel 
           /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch" */
   #if defined __INTEL_COMPILER
   #if defined(__GNUC__)
           struct utsname sysInfo;  /* For Intel on Linux and OS/X */
   #endif
   #elif defined(__GNUC__) 
   #ifndef  __APPLE__
   #include <gnu/libc-version.h>  /* Only on gnu */
   #endif
      struct utsname sysInfo;
      int cross = CROSS;
      if (cross){
              printf("Cross-");
              fprintf(ficlog, "Cross-");
      }
   #endif
   
   #include <stdint.h>
   
      printf("Compiled with:");fprintf(ficlog,"Compiled with:");
   #if defined(__clang__)
      printf(" Clang/LLVM");fprintf(ficlog," Clang/LLVM"); /* Clang/LLVM. ---------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__ICC) || defined(__INTEL_COMPILER)
      printf(" Intel ICC/ICPC");fprintf(ficlog," Intel ICC/ICPC");/* Intel ICC/ICPC. ------------------------------------------ */
   #endif
   #if defined(__GNUC__) || defined(__GNUG__)
      printf(" GNU GCC/G++");fprintf(ficlog," GNU GCC/G++");/* GNU GCC/G++. --------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__HP_cc) || defined(__HP_aCC)
      printf(" Hewlett-Packard C/aC++");fprintf(fcilog," Hewlett-Packard C/aC++"); /* Hewlett-Packard C/aC++. ---------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__IBMC__) || defined(__IBMCPP__)
      printf(" IBM XL C/C++"); fprintf(ficlog," IBM XL C/C++");/* IBM XL C/C++. -------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
      printf(" Microsoft Visual Studio");fprintf(ficlog," Microsoft Visual Studio");/* Microsoft Visual Studio. --------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__PGI)
      printf(" Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");fprintf(ficlog," Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");/* Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP. ------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__SUNPRO_C) || defined(__SUNPRO_CC)
      printf(" Oracle Solaris Studio");fprintf(ficlog," Oracle Solaris Studio\n");/* Oracle Solaris Studio. ----------------------------------- */
   #endif
      printf(" for ");fprintf(ficlog," for ");
      
   // http://stackoverflow.com/questions/4605842/how-to-identify-platform-compiler-from-preprocessor-macros
   #ifdef _WIN32 // note the underscore: without it, it's not msdn official!
       // Windows (x64 and x86)
      printf("Windows (x64 and x86) ");fprintf(ficlog,"Windows (x64 and x86) ");
   #elif __unix__ // all unices, not all compilers
       // Unix
      printf("Unix ");fprintf(ficlog,"Unix ");
   #elif __linux__
       // linux
      printf("linux ");fprintf(ficlog,"linux ");
   #elif __APPLE__
       // Mac OS, not sure if this is covered by __posix__ and/or __unix__ though..
      printf("Mac OS ");fprintf(ficlog,"Mac OS ");
   #endif
   
   /*  __MINGW32__   */
   /*  __CYGWIN__   */
   /* __MINGW64__  */
   // http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/b0084kay.aspx
   /* _MSC_VER  //the Visual C++ compiler is 17.00.51106.1, the _MSC_VER macro evaluates to 1700. Type cl /?  */
   /* _MSC_FULL_VER //the Visual C++ compiler is 15.00.20706.01, the _MSC_FULL_VER macro evaluates to 150020706 */
   /* _WIN64  // Defined for applications for Win64. */
   /* _M_X64 // Defined for compilations that target x64 processors. */
   /* _DEBUG // Defined when you compile with /LDd, /MDd, and /MTd. */
   
   #if UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffff
      printf(" 32-bit"); fprintf(ficlog," 32-bit");/* 32-bit */
   #elif UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffffffffffff
      printf(" 64-bit"); fprintf(ficlog," 64-bit");/* 64-bit */
   #else
      printf(" wtf-bit"); fprintf(ficlog," wtf-bit");/* wtf */
   #endif
   
   #if defined(__GNUC__)
   # if defined(__GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
   #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
                               + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100 \
                               + __GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
   # else
   #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
                               + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100)
   # endif
      printf(" using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
      fprintf(ficlog, " using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
   
      if (uname(&sysInfo) != -1) {
        printf("Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n ",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
      }
      else
         perror("uname() error");
      //#ifndef __INTEL_COMPILER 
   #if !defined (__INTEL_COMPILER) && !defined(__APPLE__)
      printf("GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version()); 
      fprintf(ficlog,"GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version());
   #endif
   #endif
   
      //   void main()
      //   {
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
      if (IsWow64()){
              printf("The program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
              fprintf(ficlog, "The program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
      }
      else{
              printf("The process is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
              fprintf(ficlog,"The programm is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
      }
      //      printf("\nPress Enter to continue...");
      //      getchar();
      //   }
   
   #endif
      
   
    }
   
   int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar){
     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
     int i, j, k, i1 ;
     double ftolpl = 1.e-10;
     double age, agebase, agelim;
   
       strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
       strcat(filerespl,fileres);
       if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
       }
       printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       pstamp(ficrespl);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
       fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
       /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
   
       agebase=ageminpar;
       agelim=agemaxpar;
   
       i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
       if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */
         //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           /* to clean */
           //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
           printf("\n#******");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
           printf("******\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
           
           for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
           /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
           } /* Age */
           /* was end of cptcod */
       } /* cptcov */
           return 0;
   }
   
   int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
   
     int stepsize;
     int agelim;
     int hstepm;
     int nhstepm;
     int h, i, i1, j, k;
   
     double agedeb;
     double ***p3mat;
   
       strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
       if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
       }
       printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
       stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
       /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
       agelim=AGESUP;
       hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
       /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
       pstamp(ficrespij);
       fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
       i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
      /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
      /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
      /*   k=k+1;  */
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
         
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
           
           /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
           
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             /*agedebphstep = agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm;*/
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
         }
         /*}*/
       }
           return 0;
   }
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
   #ifdef GSL
     const gsl_multimin_fminimizer_type *T;
     size_t iteri = 0, it;
     int rval = GSL_CONTINUE;
     int status = GSL_SUCCESS;
     double ssval;
   #endif
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;
   
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
     int NDIM=2;
     int vpopbased=0;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     struct stat info;
     double agedeb;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
   
     char line[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE]; 
     char *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int c,  h , cpt;
     int jl;
     int i1, j1, jk, stepsize;
     int *tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     int agemortsup;
     float  sumlpop=0.;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage=0, fage=110, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
   
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
     double **ximort;
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
     int *dcwave;
   
     char z[1]="c";
   
     /*char  *strt;*/
     char strtend[80];
   
   
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     rstart_time = time(NULL);  
     /*  (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);*/
     start_time = *localtime(&rstart_time);
     curr_time=start_time;
     /*tml = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec);*/
     /* strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tml)); */
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&start_time));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tm_sec = tp.tm_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tm_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
   #ifdef WIN32
     _getcwd(pathcd, size);
   #else
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   #endif
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]==' ') /* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
      for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
         printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
         while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
         printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
         strcpy (pathtot, val);
         if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
       }
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
     split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
    /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
     /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   #ifdef WIN32
     _chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
   #else
     chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
   #endif
     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Directory already exists (or can't create it) %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname='%s'\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     syscompilerinfo();
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fflush(ficlog);
       /* goto end; */
       exit(70); 
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       fputs(line,stdout);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       fputs(line, stdout);
       //puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
     /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
        v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
     */
     if (strlen(model)>1) 
       ncovmodel=2+nbocc(model,'+')+1; /*Number of variables including intercept and age = cptcovn + intercept + age : v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes 5+2=7*/
     else
       ncovmodel=2;
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
     nforce= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate; /* Number of forces ij from state i to j */
     npar= nforce*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters like aij*/
     if(npar >MAXPARM || nlstate >NLSTATEMAX || ndeath >NDEATHMAX || ncovmodel>NCOVMAX){
       printf("Too complex model for current IMaCh: npar=(nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel=%d >= %d(MAXPARM) or nlstate=%d >= %d(NLSTATEMAX) or ndeath=%d >= %d(NDEATHMAX) or ncovmodel=(k+age+#of+signs)=%d(NCOVMAX) >= %d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Too complex model for current IMaCh: %d >=%d(MAXPARM) or %d >=%d(NLSTATEMAX) or %d >=%d(NDEATHMAX) or %d(NCOVMAX) >=%d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fflush(stdout);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     delti=delti3[1][1];
     /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
       exit(0);
     }
     else if(mle==-3) {
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     }
     else{
       /* Read guessed parameters */
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         j=0;
         for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           if(jj==i) continue;
           j++;
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
   It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
   run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           if(mle==1)
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
             if(mle==1){
               printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             }
             else
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           if(mle==1)
             printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         }
       }  
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads scales values */
       p=param[1][1];
       
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ( (i1-i) * (j1-j) != 0){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
             printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
       }
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads covariance matrix */
       delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
       /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;
         
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%s",str);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%s",str);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
         for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           }
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       
       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
       strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
       strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
       if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
     }    /* End of mle != -3 */
   
   
     n= lastobs;
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n); /* s[i][j] health state for wave i and individual j */ 
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Number of code per covariate; if O and 1 only, 2**ncov; V1+V2+V3+V4=>16 */
   
     /* Reads data from file datafile */
     if (readdata(datafile, firstobs, lastobs, &imx)==1)
       goto end;
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
       /*    modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4 
           k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tag[cptcovage=1]=4
           k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4)
           k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1)
           k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2)
       */
     Tvar=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Was 15 changed to NCOVMAX. */
     /*  V2+V1+V4+age*V3 is a model with 4 covariates (3 plus signs). 
         For each model-covariate stores the data-covariate id. Tvar[1]=2, Tvar[2]=1, Tvar[3]=4, 
         Tvar[4=age*V3] is 3 and 'age' is recorded in Tage.
     */
     /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
       because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
       ncovcol + k1
       If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
       Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 etc */
     Tprod=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the position of a product */
     /* Tprod[k1=1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
        if  V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2   TProd[k1=2]=5 (V3*V2)
     */
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Unclear */
     Tvard=imatrix(1,NCOVMAX,1,2); /* n=Tvard[k1][1]  and m=Tvard[k1][2] gives the couple n,m of the k1 th product Vn*Vm
                               * For V3*V2 (in V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2), V3*V2 position is 2nd. 
                               * Tvard[k1=2][1]=3 (V3) Tvard[k1=2][2]=2(V2) */
     Tage=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the covariate id of covariates associated with age: V2 + V1 + age*V4 + V3*age
                            4 covariates (3 plus signs)
                            Tage[1=V3*age]= 4; Tage[2=age*V4] = 3
                         */  
   
     if(decodemodel(model, lastobs) == 1)
       goto end;
   
     if((double)(lastobs-imx)/(double)imx > 1.10){
       nbwarn++;
       printf("Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
     }
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights. We can have weights different from 1 but want no weight*/
       for(i=1;i<=imx;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* changed to imx */
     }
   
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     if(calandcheckages(imx, maxwav, &agemin, &agemax, &nberr, &nbwarn) == 1)
       goto end;
   
   
     agegomp=(int)agemin;
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
     /* */
     
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
     /* */
    
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     Ndum =ivector(-1,NCOVMAX);  
     if (ncovmodel > 2)
       tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
   
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) */
     /*printf(" codtab[1,1],codtab[100,10]=%d,%d\n", codtab[1][1],codtab[100][10]);*/
     h=0;
   
   
     /*if (cptcovn > 0) */
         
    
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /* scans any effective covariate */
       for(i=1; i <=pow(2,cptcoveff-k);i++){ /* i=1 to 8/1=8; i=1 to 8/2=4; i=1 to 8/8=1 */ 
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){ /* For each modality of this covariate ncodemax=2*/
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=pow(2,k-1); cpt++){  /* cpt=1 to 8/2**(3+1-1 or 3+1-3) =1 or 4 */ 
             h++;
             if (h>m) 
               h=1;
             /**< codtab(h,k)  k   = codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) + 1
              *     h     1     2     3     4
              *______________________________  
              *     1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1
              *     2     2     1     1     1
              *     3 i=2 1     2     1     1
              *     4     2     2     1     1
              *     5 i=3 1 i=2 1     2     1
              *     6     2     1     2     1
              *     7 i=4 1     2     2     1
              *     8     2     2     2     1
              *     9 i=5 1 i=3 1 i=2 1     1
              *    10     2     1     1     1
              *    11 i=6 1     2     1     1
              *    12     2     2     1     1
              *    13 i=7 1 i=4 1     2     1    
              *    14     2     1     2     1
              *    15 i=8 1     2     2     1
              *    16     2     2     2     1
              */
             codtab[h][k]=j;
             /*codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;*/
             printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d Tvar[k]=%d codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k],codtab[h][Tvar[k]]);
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
          printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
   
    free_ivector(Ndum,-1,NCOVMAX);
   
   
       
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
   
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       //fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
       fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);
       exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
   #ifdef WIN32
     _chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
   #else
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
   #endif
             
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
   
     if (mle==-3){
       ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); 
   /*     ximort=gsl_matrix_alloc(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); */
       cens=ivector(1,n);
       ageexmed=vector(1,n);
       agecens=vector(1,n);
       dcwave=ivector(1,n);
    
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         dcwave[i]=-1;
         for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
           if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
             dcwave[i]=m;
             /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
             break;
           }
       }
   
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
         if (wav[i]>0){
           ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
           j=wav[i];
           agecens[i]=1.; 
   
           if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
             agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
             cens[i]= 1;
           }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1) 
             cens[i]= -1;
           if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
             cens[i]=0 ;
         }
         else cens[i]=-1;
       }
       
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
       
       /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
       /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
       
       
   #ifdef GSL
       printf("GSL optimization\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #else
       printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #endif
       strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort"); 
       strcat(filerespow,fileres);
       if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       }
   #ifdef GSL
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# GSL optimization\n# iter -2*LL");
   #else
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
   #endif
       /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
       */
       fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
   #ifdef GSL
       /* gsl starts here */ 
       T = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_nmsimplex;
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer *sfm = NULL;
       gsl_vector *ss, *x;
       gsl_multimin_function minex_func;
   
       /* Initial vertex size vector */
       ss = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (ss == NULL){
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for ss", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
       /* Set all step sizes to 1 */
       gsl_vector_set_all (ss, 0.001);
   
       /* Starting point */
       
       x = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (x == NULL){
         gsl_vector_free(ss);
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for x", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
     
       /* Initialize method and iterate */
       /*     p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083; */
   /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 0, 0.0268); */
   /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 1, 0.083); */
       gsl_vector_set(x, 0, p[1]);
       gsl_vector_set(x, 1, p[2]);
   
       minex_func.f = &gompertz_f;
       minex_func.n = NDIM;
       minex_func.params = (void *)&p; /* ??? */
       
       sfm = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_alloc (T, NDIM);
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_set (sfm, &minex_func, x, ss);
       
       printf("Iterations beginning .....\n\n");
       printf("Iter. #    Intercept       Slope     -Log Likelihood     Simplex size\n");
   
       iteri=0;
       while (rval == GSL_CONTINUE){
         iteri++;
         status = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_iterate(sfm);
         
         if (status) printf("error: %s\n", gsl_strerror (status));
         fflush(0);
         
         if (status) 
           break;
         
         rval = gsl_multimin_test_size (gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm), 1e-6);
         ssval = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm);
         
         if (rval == GSL_SUCCESS)
           printf ("converged to a local maximum at\n");
         
         printf("%5d ", iteri);
         for (it = 0; it < NDIM; it++){
           printf ("%10.5f ", gsl_vector_get (sfm->x, it));
         }
         printf("f() = %-10.5f ssize = %.7f\n", sfm->fval, ssval);
       }
       
       printf("\n\n Please note: Program should be run many times with varying starting points to detemine global maximum\n\n");
       
       gsl_vector_free(x); /* initial values */
       gsl_vector_free(ss); /* inital step size */
       for (it=0; it<NDIM; it++){
         p[it+1]=gsl_vector_get(sfm->x,it);
         fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[it]);
       }
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_free (sfm); /* p *(sfm.x.data) et p *(sfm.x.data+1)  */
   #endif
   #ifdef POWELL
        powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
   #endif  
       fclose(ficrespow);
       
       hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz); 
   
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){ 
           printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         printf("\n ");
       }
       
       printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) 
         printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
   
       lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
         agemortsup=k;
         if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
       }
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
         lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
         lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
         sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
       }
       
       tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
         /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
         tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
       }
       
       
       printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
         printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
       
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                        stepm, weightopt,\
                        model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
       
       free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
   #ifdef GSL
       free_ivector(cens,1,n);
       free_vector(agecens,1,n);
       free_ivector(dcwave,1,n);
       free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
   #endif
     } /* Endof if mle==-3 */
     
     else{ /* For mle >=1 */
       globpr=0;/* debug */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
         mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
       }
       
       /*--------- results files --------------*/
       fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
       
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
           if (k != i) {
             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
               printf("%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               jk++; 
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       if(mle!=0){
         /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
         ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
         hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if (j!=i) {
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       if(mle>=1)
         printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
       /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
       /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
       /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
       
       
       /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
          even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
       */
       for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
         jj=0;
         for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
             if(j==i) continue;
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               jj++;
               ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
               if(itimes==1){
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }else{
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }
               ll=0;
               for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                 for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   if(lj==li) continue;
                   for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                     ll++;
                     if(ll<=jj){
                       cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                       if(ll<jj){
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }else{
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }
                     }
                   } /* end lk */
                 } /* end lj */
               } /* end li */
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               fprintf(ficres,"\n");
               numlinepar++;
             } /* end k*/
           } /*end j */
         } /* end i */
       } /* end itimes */
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       fflush(ficres);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       estepm=0;
       fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
       if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
       if (fage <= 2) {
         bage = ageminpar;
         fage = agemaxpar;
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
       fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
       fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       
       dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
       dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
       fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
       
       
       
        /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
       /* ,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2); */
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                    model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                    jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
         
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
    
       free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
       free_lvector(num,1,n);
       free_vector(agedc,1,n);
       /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       fclose(ficparo);
       fclose(ficres);
   
   
       /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
       /*#include "prevlim.h"*/  /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
       prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
       prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar);
       fclose(ficrespl);
   
   #ifdef FREEEXIT2
   #include "freeexit2.h"
   #endif
   
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
       /*#include "hpijx.h"*/
       hPijx(p, bage, fage);
       fclose(ficrespij);
   
     /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
       k=1;
       varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
   
   
       probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
           for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
             probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
       /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
       /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
         /*      }  */
         /*      else{ */
         /*        erreur=108; */
         /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*      } */
       }
     
   
       /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
   
       prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
           ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       */
   
       if (mobilav!=0) {
         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
         if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
           fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
           printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         }
       }
   
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies, no variances ------------*/
   
       strcpy(filerese,"e");
       strcat(filerese,fileres);
       if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);  
         
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
       fclose(ficreseij);
   
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
   
       strcpy(filerest,"t");
       strcat(filerest,fileres);
       if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
       strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
       strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
       if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
   
       strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
       strcat(filerescve,fileres);
       if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
   
       strcpy(fileresv,"v");
       strcat(fileresv,fileres);
       if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);  
           /*
            */
           /* goto endfree; */
    
           vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           pstamp(ficrest);
   
   
           for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* Segmentation fault */
             cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
             varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
             fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
             if(vpopbased==1)
               fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
             else
               fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
             fprintf(ficrest,"# Age e.. (std) ");
             for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
             epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
             for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
               prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
               if (vpopbased==1) {
                 if(mobilav ==0){
                   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                     prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
                 }else{ /* mobilav */ 
                   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                     prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
                 }
               }
           
               fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
               for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
                 for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                   epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                   /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
                 }
                 epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
               }
   
               for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
                 for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                   vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
                 fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
               fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
             }
           }
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
         /*}*/
       }
       free_vector(weight,1,n);
       free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
       free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
       free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_ivector(cod,1,n);
       free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
       fclose(ficresstdeij);
       fclose(ficrescveij);
       fclose(ficresvij);
       fclose(ficrest);
       fclose(ficpar);
     
       /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/   
   
       strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
       strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
       if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
         exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
           varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
           free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
   
       fclose(ficresvpl);
   
       /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
       if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
    /* endfree:*/
       free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
       free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
       free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
       /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
       free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
   
       free_ivector(ncodemax,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvar,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tprod,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tage,1,NCOVMAX);
   
       free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
       free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10);
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     /*(void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);*/
     rend_time = time(NULL);  
     end_time = *localtime(&rend_time);
     /* tml = *localtime(&end_time.tm_sec); */
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&end_time));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
   
      printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
   #ifdef WIN32
      if (_chdir(pathcd) != 0)
              printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
      if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
   #else
      if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
              printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n", path);
      if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0)
   #endif 
       printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
     sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
   #ifdef _WIN32
     sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
   #endif
     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
       printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
         printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s' Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #ifdef __unix
       strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
       if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #endif
     }else
       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
     
     sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
   
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf("gnuplot command might not be in your path: '%s', err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
       printf("\n Trying if gnuplot resides on the same directory that IMaCh\n");
       sprintf(plotcmd,"%sgnuplot %s", pathimach, optionfilegnuplot);
       if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0)
         printf("\n Still a problem with gnuplot command %s, err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
     }
     printf(" Successful, please wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit results with your browser, g to graph again and q for exit: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') {
   #ifdef __APPLE__
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #elif __linux
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "xdg-open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #else
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "%s", optionfilehtm);
   #endif
         printf("Starting browser with: %s",pplotcmd);fflush(stdout);
         system(pplotcmd);
       }
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }

Removed from v.1.48  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.184


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