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Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.202 and 1.208

version 1.202, 2015/09/22 19:45:16	version 1.208, 2015/11/17 14:31:57
Line 1	Line 1
/* $Id$	/* $Id$
$State$	$State$
$Log$	$Log$
	Revision 1.208 2015/11/17 14:31:57 brouard
	Summary: temporary

	Revision 1.207 2015/10/27 17:36:57 brouard
	* empty log message *

	Revision 1.206 2015/10/24 07:14:11 brouard
	* empty log message *

	Revision 1.205 2015/10/23 15:50:53 brouard
	Summary: 0.98r3 some clarification for graphs on likelihood contributions

	Revision 1.204 2015/10/01 16:20:26 brouard
	Summary: Some new graphs of contribution to likelihood

	Revision 1.203 2015/09/30 17:45:14 brouard
	Summary: looking at better estimation of the hessian

	Also a better criteria for convergence to the period prevalence And
	therefore adding the number of years needed to converge. (The
	prevalence in any alive state shold sum to one

Revision 1.202 2015/09/22 19:45:16 brouard	Revision 1.202 2015/09/22 19:45:16 brouard
Summary: Adding some overall graph on contribution to likelihood. Might change	Summary: Adding some overall graph on contribution to likelihood. Might change

Line 647	Line 669

/* #define DEBUG */	/* #define DEBUG */
/* #define DEBUGBRENT */	/* #define DEBUGBRENT */
#define DEBUGLINMIN	/* #define DEBUGLINMIN */
	/* #define DEBUGHESS */
	#define DEBUGHESSIJ
	/* #define LINMINORIGINAL /\* Don't use loop on scale in linmin (accepting nan)\/ /
#define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */	#define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */
#define POWELLF1F3 /* Skip test */	#define POWELLF1F3 /* Skip test */
/* #define POWELLORIGINAL /\* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test \/ /	/* #define POWELLORIGINAL /\* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test \/ /
Line 739 typedef struct {	Line 764 typedef struct {
/* $State$ */	/* $State$ */
#include "version.h"	#include "version.h"
char version[]=__IMACH_VERSION__;	char version[]=__IMACH_VERSION__;
char copyright[]="September 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";	char copyright[]="October 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$";	char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$";
char strstart[80];	char strstart[80];
char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];	char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
Line 930 static int split( char path, char dirc	Line 955 static int split( char path, char dirc
}	}
/* got dirc from getcwd*/	/* got dirc from getcwd*/
printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);	printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
} else { /* strip direcotry from path */	} else { /* strip directory from path */
ss++; /* after this, the filename */	ss++; /* after this, the filename */
l2 = strlen( ss ); /* length of filename */	l2 = strlen( ss ); /* length of filename */
if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );	if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
Line 1602 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int	Line 1627 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
double xx,xmin,bx,ax;	double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
double fx,fb,fa;	double fx,fb,fa;

double scale=10., axs, xxs, xxss; /* Scale added for infinity */	#ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
	#else
	double scale=10., axs, xxs; /* Scale added for infinity */
	#endif

ncom=n;	ncom=n;
pcom=vector(1,n);	pcom=vector(1,n);
xicom=vector(1,n);	xicom=vector(1,n);
Line 1613 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int	Line 1641 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
xicom[j]=xi[j]; /* Former scale xi[j] of currrent direction i */	xicom[j]=xi[j]; /* Former scale xi[j] of currrent direction i */
}	}

/* axs=0.0; */	#ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
/* xxss=1; /\* 1 and using scale \/ /	xx=1.;
xxs=1;	#else
/* do{ */	axs=0.0;
ax=0.;	xxs=1.;
	do{
xx= xxs;	xx= xxs;
	#endif
	ax=0.;
mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); /* Outputs: xtx[j]=pcom[j]+(xx)xicom[j]; fx=f(xtx[j]) */	mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); /* Outputs: xtx[j]=pcom[j]+(xx)xicom[j]; fx=f(xtx[j]) */
/* brackets with inputs ax=0 and xx=1, but points, pcom=p, and directions values, xicom=xi, are sent via f1dim(x) */	/* brackets with inputs ax=0 and xx=1, but points, pcom=p, and directions values, xicom=xi, are sent via f1dim(x) */
/* xt[x,j]=pcom[j]+xxicom[j] f(ax) = f(xt(a,j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 0 xi(j)) and f(xx) = f(xt(x, j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 1 * xi(j)) */	/* xt[x,j]=pcom[j]+xxicom[j] f(ax) = f(xt(a,j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 0 xi(j)) and f(xx) = f(xt(x, j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 1 * xi(j)) */
Line 1626 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int	Line 1657 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
/* Given input ax=axs and xx=xxs, xx might be too far from ax to get a finite f(xx) */	/* Given input ax=axs and xx=xxs, xx might be too far from ax to get a finite f(xx) */
/* Searches on line, outputs (ax, xx, bx) such that fx < min(fa and fb) */	/* Searches on line, outputs (ax, xx, bx) such that fx < min(fa and fb) */
/* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom, order may change. Scale is [0:xxsxi[j]] et non plus [0:xi[j]]/	/* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom, order may change. Scale is [0:xxsxi[j]] et non plus [0:xi[j]]/
/* if (fx != fx){ */	#ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
/* xxs=xxs/scale; /\* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 \/ /	#else
/* printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n", axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx); */	if (fx != fx){
/* } */	xxs=xxs/scale; /* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 */
/* }while(fx != fx); */	printf("\|");
	fprintf(ficlog,"\|");
	#ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
	printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n", axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx);
	#endif
	}
	}while(fx != fx);
	#endif

#ifdef DEBUGLINMIN	#ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
printf("\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n", ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);	printf("\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n", ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
fprintf(ficlog,"\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n", ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);	fprintf(ficlog,"\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n", ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
Line 1650 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int	Line 1688 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
fprintf(ficlog,"linmin end ");	fprintf(ficlog,"linmin end ");
#endif	#endif
for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {	for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
/* printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]); */	#ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
xi[j] = xmin; / xi rescaled by xmin: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */	xi[j] *= xmin;
/* if(xxs <1.0) */	#else
/* printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs ); */	#ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
	if(xxs <1.0)
	printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]);
	#endif
	xi[j] = xminxxs; /* xi rescaled by xmin and number of loops: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
	#ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
	if(xxs <1.0)
	printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs );
	#endif
	#endif
p[j] += xi[j]; /* Parameters values are updated accordingly */	p[j] += xi[j]; /* Parameters values are updated accordingly */
}	}
/* printf("\n"); */
#ifdef DEBUGLINMIN	#ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
	printf("\n");
printf("Comparing last frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, fret, (*func)(p));	printf("Comparing last frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, fret, (*func)(p));
fprintf(ficlog,"Comparing last frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, fret, (*func)(p));	fprintf(ficlog,"Comparing last frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, fret, (*func)(p));
for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {	for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
Line 1668 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int	Line 1715 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
fprintf(ficlog,"\n");	fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
}	}
}	}
	#else
#endif	#endif
free_vector(xicom,1,n);	free_vector(xicom,1,n);
free_vector(pcom,1,n);	free_vector(pcom,1,n);
Line 1745 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int	Line 1793 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; /* Directions stored from previous iteration with previous scales */	for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; /* Directions stored from previous iteration with previous scales */
fptt=(*fret);	fptt=(*fret);
#ifdef DEBUG	#ifdef DEBUG
printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", fret, fret, *fret);	printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", fret, fret, *fret);
fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", fret, fret, *fret);	fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", fret, fret, *fret);
#endif	#endif
printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */	printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);	fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* Point p[n]. xit[n] has been loaded for direction i as input.*/	linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* Point p[n]. xit[n] has been loaded for direction i as input.*/
/* Outputs are fret(new point p) p is updated and xit rescaled */	/* Outputs are fret(new point p) p is updated and xit rescaled */
Line 1917 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int	Line 1965 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int

/** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence) **************/	/** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence) **************/

double prevalim(double prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double oldm, double savm, double ftolpl, int ij)	double prevalim(double prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double oldm, double savm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij)
{	{
/* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit	/* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */	matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached with precision ftolpl */
	/* Wx= Wx-1 Px-1= Wx-2 Px-2 Px-1 = Wx-n Px-n ... Px-2 Px-1 I */
	/* Wx is row vector: population in state 1, population in state 2, population dead */
	/* or prevalence in state 1, prevalence in state 2, 0 */
	/* newm is the matrix after multiplications, its rows are identical at a factor */
	/* Initial matrix pimij */
	/* {0.85204250825084937, 0.13044499163996345, 0.017512500109187184, */
	/* 0.090851990222114765, 0.88271245433047185, 0.026435555447413338, */
	/* 0, 0 , 1} */
	/*
	* and after some iteration: */
	/* {0.45504275246439968, 0.42731458730878791, 0.11764266022681241, */
	/* 0.45201005341706885, 0.42865420071559901, 0.11933574586733192, */
	/* 0, 0 , 1} */
	/* And prevalence by suppressing the deaths are close to identical rows in prlim: */
	/* {0.51571254859325999, 0.4842874514067399, */
	/* 0.51326036147820708, 0.48673963852179264} */
	/* If we start from prlim again, prlim tends to a constant matrix */

int i, ii,j,k;	int i, ii,j,k;
double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;	double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
/* double *matprod2(); / /* test */	/* double *matprod2(); / /* test */
double out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], pmij();	double out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], pmij();
double **newm;	double **newm;
double agefin, delaymax=100 ; /* Max number of years to converge */	double agefin, delaymax=100. ; /* 100 Max number of years to converge */
long int ncvyear=0, ncvloop=0;	int ncvloop=0;

for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)	for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){	for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
Line 1979 double prevalim(double prlim, int nl	Line 2044 double prevalim(double prlim, int nl
min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);	min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
/* printf(" age= %d prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d max=%f min=%f\n", (int)age, i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin, max, min); */	/* printf(" age= %d prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d max=%f min=%f\n", (int)age, i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin, max, min); */
}	}
maxmin=max-min;	maxmin=(max-min)/(max+min)*2;
maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);	maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
	/* for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) { */
	/* sumnew=0.; */
	/* sumnew+=prlim[i][j]; */
	/* } */
	/* prmimj = sumnew/(float)nlstate; /\* Means of various prevalence limits. */
} /* j loop */	} /* j loop */
	*ncvyear= (int)age- (int)agefin;
	/* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, ncvyear); /
if(maxmax < ftolpl){	if(maxmax < ftolpl){
/* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%ld, ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */	/* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%ld, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, ncvyear); /
return prlim;	return prlim;
}	}
} /* age loop */	} /* age loop */
printf("Warning: the stable prevalence did not converge with the required precision ftolpl=610^5ftol=%g. \n\	/* After some age loop it doesn't converge */
Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%ld, ncvyear=%d\n\	printf("Warning: the stable prevalence at age %d did not converge with the required precision %g > ftolpl=%g within %.0f years. \n\
Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin);	Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%d, ncvyear=%d\n", (int)age, maxmax, ftolpl, delaymax, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, *ncvyear);
	/* printf(" age= %d newm\n",(int)age); */
	/* for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
	/* for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ */
	/* printf(" %lf", newm[i][j]); */
	/* } */
	/* printf("\n"); */
	/* } */
	/* printf("\n"); */
	/* printf("prlim\n"); */
	/* for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) { */
	/* sumnew=0; */
	/* for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k]; */
	/* for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){ */
	/* prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew); */
	/* printf(" %lf", prlim[i][j]); */
	/* } */
	/* printf("\n"); */
	/* } */
	/* printf("\n"); */

	/* Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */
return prlim; /* should not reach here */	return prlim; /* should not reach here */
}	}

Line 2565 double funcone( double *x)	Line 2658 double funcone( double *x)
ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2weight[i]lli;	ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2weight[i]lli;
/printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); /	/printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); /
if(globpr){	if(globpr){
fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\	fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %11.6f %8.4f %8.3f\
%11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \	%11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
num[i], agexact, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],	num[i], agexact, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],weight[i]*gipmx/gsw,
2weight[i]lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);	2weight[i]lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){	for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;	llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
Line 2605 void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],	Line 2698 void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);	printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);	fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
}	}
fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2llweightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");	fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) count age s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight weight/gpw -2ln(pij)weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2llweightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i age i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");	fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i age i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight %%weight 2wlli out sav ");
/* i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2weight[i]lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */	/* i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2weight[i]lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++)	for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++)
fprintf(ficresilk," -2gipw/gswweight*ll[%d]++",k);	fprintf(ficresilk," -2gipw/gswweight*ll[%d]++",k);
Line 2616 void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],	Line 2709 void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
fretone=(funcone)(p);	fretone=(funcone)(p);
if(*globpri !=0){	if(*globpri !=0){
fclose(ficresilk);	fclose(ficresilk);
fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with initial parameters and mle >= 1. You should at least run with mle >= 1 and starting values corresponding to the optimized parameters in order to visualize the real contribution of each individual/wave: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));	if (mle ==0)
fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- The first 3 individuals are drawn with lines. The function drawn is -2Log(L) in log scale: <a href=\"%s.png\">%s.png</a><br> \	fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with initial parameters and mle = %d.",mle);
<img src=\"%s.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));	else if(mle >=1)
	fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with optimized parameters mle = %d.",mle);
	fprintf(fichtm," You should at least run with mle >= 1 to get starting values corresponding to the optimized parameters in order to visualize the real contribution of each individual/wave: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));


	for (k=1; k<= nlstate ; k++) {
	fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probability p%dj by origin %d and destination j <a href=\"%s-p%dj.png\">%s-p%dj.png</a><br> \
	<img src=\"%s-p%dj.png\">",k,k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k);
	}
	fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- The function drawn is -2Log(L) in Log scale: by state of origin <a href=\"%s-ori.png\">%s-ori.png</a><br> \
	<img src=\"%s-ori.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
	fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- and by state of destination <a href=\"%s-dest.png\">%s-dest.png</a><br> \
	<img src=\"%s-dest.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
fflush(fichtm);	fflush(fichtm);
}	}
return;	return;
}	}

Line 2694 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in	Line 2799 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in
#endif	#endif
free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);	free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
fclose(ficrespow);	fclose(ficrespow);
printf("#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));	printf("\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
fprintf(ficlog,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));	fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));	fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));

}	}

/** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix */	/** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix */
void hesscov(double *matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (func)(double []))	void hesscov(double matcov, double hess, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
{	{
double a,y,*x,pd;	double a,y,*x,pd;
double **hess;	/* double *hess; /
int i, j;	int i, j;
int *indx;	int *indx;

double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);	double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);	double hessij(double p[], double *hess, double delti[], int i, int j,double (func)(double []),int npar);
void lubksb(double *a, int npar, int indx, double b[]) ;	void lubksb(double *a, int npar, int indx, double b[]) ;
void ludcmp(double *a, int npar, int indx, double *d) ;	void ludcmp(double *a, int npar, int indx, double *d) ;
double gompertz(double p[]);	double gompertz(double p[]);
hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);	/* hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar); */

printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");	printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");	fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){	for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);	printf("%d-",i);fflush(stdout);
fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);	fprintf(ficlog,"%d-",i);fflush(ficlog);

hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);	hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);

Line 2730 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]	Line 2835 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {	for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {	for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
if (j>i) {	if (j>i) {
printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);	printf(".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);	fprintf(ficlog,".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);	hess[i][j]=hessij(p,hess, delti,i,j,func,npar);

hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];	hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
/printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);/	/printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);/
Line 2766 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]	Line 2871 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");	fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {	for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {	for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);	printf("%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);	fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
}	}
printf("\n");	printf("\n");
fprintf(ficlog,"\n");	fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
}	}

	/* printf("\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
	/* fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
	/* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { */
	/* for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { */
	/* printf("%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
	/* fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
	/* } */
	/* printf("\n"); */
	/* fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
	/* } */

/* Recompute Inverse */	/* Recompute Inverse */
for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)	/* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) */
for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];	/* for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j]; */
ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);	/* ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd); */

	/* printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n"); */

	/* for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { */
	/* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0; */
	/* x[j]=1; */
	/* lubksb(a,npar,indx,x); */
	/* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ */
	/* y[i][j]=x[i]; */
	/* printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
	/* fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
	/* } */
	/* printf("\n"); */
	/* fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
	/* } */

	/* Verifying the inverse matrix */
	#ifdef DEBUGHESS
	y=matprod2(y,hess,1,npar,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);

/* printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");	printf("\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix, should be unity:#\n");
	fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix. Should be unity:#\n");

for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {	for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
x[j]=1;
lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){	for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
y[i][j]=x[i];	printf("%.2f ",y[i][j]);
printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);	fprintf(ficlog,"%.2f ",y[i][j]);
fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
}	}
printf("\n");	printf("\n");
fprintf(ficlog,"\n");	fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
}	}
*/	#endif

free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);	free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);	free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
free_vector(x,1,npar);	free_vector(x,1,npar);
free_ivector(indx,1,npar);	free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);	/* free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar); */


}	}

/************* hessian matrix **************/	/************* hessian matrix **************/
double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)	double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
{	{ /* Around values of x, computes the function func and returns the scales delti and hessian */
int i;	int i;
int l=1, lmax=20;	int l=1, lmax=20;
double k1,k2;	double k1,k2, res, fx;
double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */	double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
double res;
double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;	double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
double fx;
int k=0,kmax=10;	int k=0,kmax=10;
double l1;	double l1;

Line 2828 double hessii(double x[], double delta,	Line 2958 double hessii(double x[], double delta,
p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;	p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
k2=func(p2)-fx;	k2=func(p2)-fx;
/res= (k1-2.0fx+k2)/delt/delt; */	/res= (k1-2.0fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2L /	res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by 2 because L and not 2L /

#ifdef DEBUGHESS	#ifdef DEBUGHESSII
printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);	printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);	fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
#endif	#endif
Line 2844 double hessii(double x[], double delta,	Line 2974 double hessii(double x[], double delta,
else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) \|\| (k2 >khi/nkhi)){	else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) \|\| (k2 >khi/nkhi)){
delts=delt;	delts=delt;
}	}
}	} /* End loop k */
}	}
delti[theta]=delts;	delti[theta]=delts;
return res;	return res;

}	}

double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)	double hessij( double x[], double *hess, double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (func)(double []),int npar)
{	{
int i;	int i;
int l=1, lmax=20;	int l=1, lmax=20;
double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;	double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
double p2[MAXPARM+1];	double p2[MAXPARM+1];
int k;	int k, kmax=1;
	double v1, v2, cv12, lc1, lc2;

	int firstime=0;

fx=func(x);	fx=func(x);
for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {	for (k=1; k<=kmax; k=k+10) {
for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];	for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;	p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;	p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
k1=func(p2)-fx;	k1=func(p2)-fx;

p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;	p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;	p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
k2=func(p2)-fx;	k2=func(p2)-fx;

p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;	p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;	p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
k3=func(p2)-fx;	k3=func(p2)-fx;

p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;	p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;	p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
k4=func(p2)-fx;	k4=func(p2)-fx;
res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]k/delti[thetaj]k/2.; /* Because of L not 2L /	res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]/k/delti[thetaj]/k/2.; /* Because of L not 2L /
#ifdef DEBUG	if(k1k2k3*k4 <0.){
printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);	firstime=1;
fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);	kmax=kmax+10;
	}
	if(kmax >=10 \|\| firstime ==1){
	printf("Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
	fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
	printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e deltik=%.12e deltjk=%.12e, xi-dek=%.12e xj-dek=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
	fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e deltik=%.12e deltjk=%.12e, xi-dek=%.12e xj-dek=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
	}
	#ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ
	v1=hess[thetai][thetai];
	v2=hess[thetaj][thetaj];
	cv12=res;
	/* Computing eigen value of Hessian matrix */
	lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)(v1+v2) - 4(v1v2-cv12cv12)))/2.;
	lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)(v1+v2) - 4(v1v2-cv12cv12)))/2.;
	if ((lc2 <0) \|\| (lc1 <0) ){
	printf("Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
	fprintf(ficlog, "Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
	printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
	fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
	}
#endif	#endif
}	}
return res;	return res;
}	}

	/* Not done yet: Was supposed to fix if not exactly at the maximum */
	/* double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (func)(double []),int npar) /
	/* { */
	/* int i; */
	/* int l=1, lmax=20; */
	/* double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx; */
	/* double p2[MAXPARM+1]; */
	/* double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4; */
	/* int k=0,kmax=10; */
	/* double l1; */

	/* fx=func(x); */
	/* for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){ /\* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum \/ /
	/* l1=pow(10,l); */
	/* delts=delt; */
	/* for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){ */
	/* delt = delti(l1k); */
	/* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i]; */
	/* p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
	/* p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
	/* k1=func(p2)-fx; */

	/* p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
	/* p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
	/* k2=func(p2)-fx; */

	/* p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
	/* p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
	/* k3=func(p2)-fx; */

	/* p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
	/* p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
	/* k4=func(p2)-fx; */
	/* res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]k/delti[thetaj]k/2.; /\* Because of L not 2L \/ */
	/* #ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ */
	/* printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
	/* fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
	/* #endif */
	/* if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) \|\| (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)\|\| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)\|\| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)){ */
	/* k=kmax; */
	/* } */
	/* else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) \|\| (k2 >khi/nkhif) \|\| (k4 >khi/nkhif) \|\| (k4 >khi/nkhif)){ /\* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. \/ /
	/* k=kmax; l=lmax10; /
	/* } */
	/* else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) \|\| (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ */
	/* delts=delt; */
	/* } */
	/* } /\* End loop k \/ /
	/* } */
	/* delti[theta]=delts; */
	/* return res; */
	/* } */


/************ Inverse of matrix ************/	/************ Inverse of matrix ************/
void ludcmp(double *a, int n, int indx, double *d)	void ludcmp(double *a, int n, int indx, double *d)
{	{
Line 3818 void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],	Line 4025 void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
}	}

/********** Variance ****************/	/********** Variance ****************/
void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double *vareij, double matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double oldm, double savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])	void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double *vareij, double matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double oldm, double savm, double *prlim, double ftolpl, int ncvyear, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
{	{
/* Variance of health expectancies */	/* Variance of health expectancies */
/* double prevalim(double prlim, int nlstate, double xp, double age, double oldm, double * savm,double ftolpl);*/	/* double prevalim(double prlim, int nlstate, double xp, double age, double oldm, double * savm,double ftolpl);*/
Line 3872 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d	Line 4079 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d
fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);	fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
}	}
printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1p1j+w2p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);	printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1p1j+w2p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);

fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1p1j+w2p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);	fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1p1j+w2p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);	pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1p1j+w2p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);	fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1p1j+w2p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
Line 3883 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d	Line 4089 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d
fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);	fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
}	}
fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");	fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");

fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");	fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");	fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");
/* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/	/* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
Line 3920 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d	Line 4127 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d
/* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */	/* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
/* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.	/* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim	nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.	nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelim.
Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */	Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions)
/* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the	we decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it	survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if	means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same	you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
Line 3944 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d	Line 4151 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d
xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
}	}
hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);	hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);	prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);

if (popbased==1) {	if (popbased==1) {
if(mobilav ==0){	if(mobilav ==0){
Line 3975 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d	Line 4182 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d
for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */	for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);	hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);	prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear, ij);

if (popbased==1) {	if (popbased==1) {
if(mobilav ==0){	if(mobilav ==0){
Line 4050 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d	Line 4257 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d
/* end ppptj */	/* end ppptj */
/* x centered again */	/* x centered again */
hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);	hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);	prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);

if (popbased==1) {	if (popbased==1) {
if(mobilav ==0){	if(mobilav ==0){
Line 4128 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d	Line 4335 void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d
} /* end varevsij */	} /* end varevsij */

/********** Variance of prevlim ****************/	/********** Variance of prevlim ****************/
void varprevlim(char fileres[], double varpl, double matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double oldm, double savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])	void varprevlim(char fileres[], double varpl, double matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double oldm, double savm, double *prlim, double ftolpl, int ncvyear, int ij, char strstart[])
{	{
/* Variance of prevalence limit */	/* Variance of prevalence limit for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
/* double prevalim(double prlim, int nlstate, double xp, double age, double oldm, double savm,double ftolpl);/	/* double prevalim(double prlim, int nlstate, double xp, double age, double oldm, double savm,double ftolpl);/

double dnewm,doldm;	double dnewm,doldm;
Line 4138 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *	Line 4345 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
double *xp;	double *xp;
double gp, gm;	double gp, gm;
double gradg, trgradg;	double gradg, trgradg;
	double mgm, mgp;
double age,agelim;	double age,agelim;
int theta;	int theta;

Line 4159 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *	Line 4367 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)YEARM/stepm); / Typically 20 years = 2012/6=40 /	nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)YEARM/stepm); / Typically 20 years = 2012/6=40 /
if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;	if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */	nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
	p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);	gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
	mgp=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
	mgm=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
gp=vector(1,nlstate);	gp=vector(1,nlstate);
gm=vector(1,nlstate);	gm=vector(1,nlstate);

Line 4167 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *	Line 4378 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */	for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
}	}
prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);	hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij); /* Missing or not useful because 1 year */
for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)	prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);
	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
gp[i] = prlim[i][i];	gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
	mgp[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
	}
for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */	for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);	prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyear,ij);
for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
gm[i] = prlim[i][i];	gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
	mgm[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
	}
for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];	gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
} /* End theta */	} /* End theta */
Line 4186 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *	Line 4400 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)	for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];	trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
	if((int)age==68 \|\|(int)age== 69 ){
	printf("\nmgm mgp %d ",(int)age);
	for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
	printf("%d ",j);
	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
	printf("%d %lf %lf",theta,mgm[theta][j],mgp[theta][j]);
	printf("\n ");
	}
	}
	if((int)age==68 \|\|(int)age== 69 ){
	printf("\n gradg %d ",(int)age);
	for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
	printf("%d ",j);
	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
	printf("%d %lf ",theta,gradg[theta][j]);
	printf("\n ");
	}
	}

for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;	varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
	if((int)age==68 \|\|(int)age== 69 ){
matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
	}else{
	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
	}
for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */	varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */

Line 4200 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *	Line 4437 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");	fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);	free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);	free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
	free_matrix(mgm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
	free_matrix(mgp,1,npar,1,nlstate);
free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);	free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);	free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
} /* End age */	} /* End age */
Line 4611 divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3	Line 4850 divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3
}	}
/* State specific survival functions (period) */	/* State specific survival functions (period) */
for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){	for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions from state %d in any different live states and total.\	fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions from state %d in each live state and total.\
Or probability to survive in various states (1 to %d) being in state %d at different ages.\	Or probability to survive in various states (1 to %d) being in state %d at different ages.\
<a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, nlstate, cpt, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1);	<a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, nlstate, cpt, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1);
}	}
Line 4621 divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3	Line 4860 divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3
<img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1);	<img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1);
}	}
for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {	for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) (or area under each survival functions): <a href=\"%s%d%d.svg\">%s%d%d.svg</a> <br> \	fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) (or area under each survival functions): <a href=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">%s_%d%d.svg</a> <br> \
<img src=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1);	<img src=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1);
}	}
/* } /\* end i1 \/ /	/* } /\* end i1 \/ /
Line 4631 divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3	Line 4870 divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3
fprintf(fichtm,"\	fprintf(fichtm,"\
\n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\	\n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
- Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br> \	- Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br> \
- 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file.<br> \	- 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file if optimization has been done (mle != 0).<br> \
But because parameters are usually highly correlated (a higher incidence of disability \	But because parameters are usually highly correlated (a higher incidence of disability \
and a higher incidence of recovery can give very close observed transition) it might \	and a higher incidence of recovery can give very close observed transition) it might \
be very useful to look not only at linear confidence intervals estimated from the \	be very useful to look not only at linear confidence intervals estimated from the \
Line 4691 See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance	Line 4930 See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance
}	}
for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {	for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \	fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.svg <br>\	prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): <a href=\"%s_%d%d.svg\"> %s_%d-%d.svg <br>\
<img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1);	<img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1);
}	}
fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \	fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \	health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\	true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\	drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
observed and cahotic prevalences: %s_%d.svg<br>\	observed and cahotic prevalences: <a href=\"%s_%d.svg\">%s_%d.svg<br>\
<img src=\"%s_%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1);	<img src=\"%s_%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1);
/* } /\* end i1 \/ /	/* } /\* end i1 \/ /
}/* End k1 */	}/* End k1 */
fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");	fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
Line 4728 void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch	Line 4967 void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Contributions to the Likelihood, mle >=1. For mle=4 no interpolation, pure matrix products.\n#\n");	fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Contributions to the Likelihood, mle >=1. For mle=4 no interpolation, pure matrix products.\n#\n");
fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Likelihood (-2Log(L))\";");	fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Likelihood (-2Log(L))\";");
/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480"); / / Too big for svg */	/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480"); / / Too big for svg */
fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png size 640, 480");	fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter pngcairo size 640, 480");
/* good for mle=4 plot by number of matrix products.	/* nice for mle=4 plot by number of matrix products.
replot "rrtest1/toto.txt" u 2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with point lc 1 */	replot "rrtest1/toto.txt" u 2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with point lc 1 */
/* replot exp(p1+p2x)/(1+exp(p1+p2x)+exp(p3+p4x)+exp(p5+p6x)) t "p12(x)" */	/* replot exp(p1+p2x)/(1+exp(p1+p2x)+exp(p3+p4x)+exp(p5+p6x)) t "p12(x)" */
/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */	/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));	fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-dest.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" u 2:(-$11):3 t \"All sample, all transitions\" with dots lc variable",subdirf(fileresilk));	fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot \"%s\" u 2:(-$12):5 t \"All sample, transitions colored by destination\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot \"%s\" u 2:($3 <= 3 ? -$11 : 1/0):3 t \"First 3 individuals\" with line lc variable", subdirf(fileresilk));	fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-ori.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");	fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot \"%s\" u 2:(-$12):4 t \"All sample, transitions colored by origin\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
	for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
	fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-p%dj.png\";set ylabel \"Probability for each individual/wave\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),i);
	fprintf(ficgp,"unset log;\n# plot weighted, mean weight should have point size of 0.5\n plot \"%s\"",subdirf(fileresilk));
	fprintf(ficgp," u 2:($4 == %d && $5==%d ? $9 : 1/0):($11/4.):5 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable \\\n",i,1,i,1);
	for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++) {
	fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n \"\" u 2:($4 == %d && $5==%d ? $9 : 1/0):($11/4.):5 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable ",i,j,i,j);
	}
	fprintf(ficgp,";\nset out; unset ylabel;\n");
	}
	/* unset log; plot "rrtest1_sorted_4/ILK_rrtest1_sorted_4.txt" u 2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with points lc variable */
	/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot \"%s\" u 2:(-$11):3 t \"All sample, all transitions\" with dots lc variable",subdirf(fileresilk)); */
	/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot \"%s\" u 2:($3 <= 3 ? -$11 : 1/0):3 t \"First 3 individuals\" with line lc variable", subdirf(fileresilk)); */
	fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;unset log\n");
/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\"; replot; set out; # bug gnuplot",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */	/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\"; replot; set out; # bug gnuplot",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */

strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);	strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
Line 6317 void syscompilerinfo(int logged)	Line 6569 void syscompilerinfo(int logged)

}	}

int prevalence_limit(double p, double *prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl){	int prevalence_limit(double p, double prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int ncvyear){
/--------------- Prevalence limit (period or stable prevalence) --------------/	/--------------- Prevalence limit (period or stable prevalence) --------------/
int i, j, k, i1 ;	int i, j, k, i1 ;
/* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */	/* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */
double age, agebase, agelim;	double age, agebase, agelim;
	double tot;

strcpy(filerespl,"PL_");	strcpy(filerespl,"PL_");
strcat(filerespl,fileresu);	strcat(filerespl,fileresu);
Line 6332 void syscompilerinfo(int logged)	Line 6585 void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);	printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);	fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
pstamp(ficrespl);	pstamp(ficrespl);
fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");	fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence. Precision given by ftolpl=%g \n", ftolpl);
fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");	fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");	fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
Line 6367 void syscompilerinfo(int logged)	Line 6620 void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);	fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
}	}
for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl," %d-%d ",i,i);
fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");	fprintf(ficrespl,"Total Years_to_converge\n");

for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){	for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
/* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */	/* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);	prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, ncvyear, k);
fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );	fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);	fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)	tot=0.;
	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
	tot += prlim[i][i];
fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);	fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");	}
	fprintf(ficrespl," %.3f %d\n", tot, *ncvyear);
} /* Age */	} /* Age */
/* was end of cptcod */	/* was end of cptcod */
} /* cptcov */	} /* cptcov */
Line 6471 int main(int argc, char *argv[])	Line 6727 int main(int argc, char *argv[])
#endif	#endif
int movingaverage(double *probs, double bage,double fage, double *mobaverage, int mobilav);	int movingaverage(double *probs, double bage,double fage, double *mobaverage, int mobilav);
int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;	int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;
	int ncvyearnp=0;
	int ncvyear=&ncvyearnp; / Number of years needed for the period prevalence to converge */
int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;	int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;
int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */	int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
int num_filled;	int num_filled;
Line 6519 int main(int argc, char *argv[])	Line 6776 int main(int argc, char *argv[])
double **param; / Matrix of parameters */	double **param; / Matrix of parameters */
double *p;	double *p;
double *matcov; / Matrix of covariance */	double *matcov; / Matrix of covariance */
	double *hess; / Hessian matrix */
double **delti3; / Scale */	double **delti3; / Scale */
double delti; / Scale */	double delti; / Scale */
double *eij, *vareij;	double *eij, *vareij;
Line 6578 int main(int argc, char *argv[])	Line 6836 int main(int argc, char *argv[])
printf("\nIMaCh version %s, %s\n%s",version, copyright, fullversion);	printf("\nIMaCh version %s, %s\n%s",version, copyright, fullversion);
if(argc <=1){	if(argc <=1){
printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");	printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);	if(!fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin)){
	printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
	goto end;
	}
i=strlen(pathr);	i=strlen(pathr);
if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')	if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
pathr[i-1]='\0';	pathr[i-1]='\0';
i=strlen(pathr);	i=strlen(pathr);
if(pathr[i-1]==' ') /* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */	if(i >= 1 && pathr[i-1]==' ') {/* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
pathr[i-1]='\0';	pathr[i-1]='\0';
for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){	}
	i=strlen(pathr);
	if( i==0 ){
	printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
	goto end;
	}
	for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
printf("Pathr \|%s\|\n",pathr);	printf("Pathr \|%s\|\n",pathr);
while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');	while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
printf("val= \|%s\| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);	printf("val= \|%s\| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
Line 6725 int main(int argc, char *argv[])	Line 6992 int main(int argc, char *argv[])
}	}
printf("ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n",ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);	printf("ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n",ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);
}	}
ftolpl=6ftol1.e5; /* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */	/* ftolpl=6ftol1.e5; /\* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit \/ /
	ftolpl=6.e-3; /* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */
/* Third parameter line */	/* Third parameter line */
while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {	while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
/* If line starts with a # it is a comment */	/* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
Line 6755 int main(int argc, char *argv[])	Line 7023 int main(int argc, char *argv[])
}	}
}	}
/* printf(" model=1+age%s modeltemp= %s, model=%s\n",model, modeltemp, model);fflush(stdout); */	/* printf(" model=1+age%s modeltemp= %s, model=%s\n",model, modeltemp, model);fflush(stdout); */
	printf("model=1+age+%s\n",model);fflush(stdout);
}	}
/* fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=1+age+%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model); */	/* fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=1+age+%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model); */
/* numlinepar=numlinepar+3; /\* In general \/ /	/* numlinepar=numlinepar+3; /\* In general \/ /
/* printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model); */	/* printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model); */
if(model[strlen(model)-1]=='.') /* Suppressing leading dot in the model */	fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
model[strlen(model)-1]='\0';	fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
fflush(ficlog);	fflush(ficlog);
/* if(model[0]=='#'\|\| model[0]== '\0'){ */	/* if(model[0]=='#'\|\| model[0]== '\0'){ */
if(model[0]=='#'){	if(model[0]=='#'){
Line 6827 int main(int argc, char *argv[])	Line 7094 int main(int argc, char *argv[])
fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);	fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);	param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);	matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
	hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
}	}
else{	else{
/* Read guessed parameters */	/* Read guessed parameters */
Line 6935 run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t	Line 7203 run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t
ungetc(c,ficpar);	ungetc(c,ficpar);

matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);	matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
	hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)	for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;	for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;

Line 7177 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 7446 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);	printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
}	}
else{	else{
fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version);	fprintf(ficgp,"\n# IMaCh-%s\n", version);
fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);	fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
//fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");	//fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");	fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
Line 7204 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 7473 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
else{	else{
fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \	fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\	<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\	Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);	optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
}	}

fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \	fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"utf-8\"/><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"7\"><a href=http:/euroreves.ined.fr/imach>IMaCh for Interpolated Markov Chain</a> </font><br>\n<font size=\"3\">Sponsored by Copyright (C) 2002-2015 <a href=http://www.ined.fr>INED</a>-EUROREVES-Institut de longévité-Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciences 日本学術振興会 (<a href=https://www.jsps.go.jp/english/e-grants/>Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121</a>) - <a href=https://software.intel.com/en-us>Intel Software 2015</a></font><br> \
<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\	<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\	<font size=\"2\">IMaCh-%s <br> %s</font> \
	<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
	Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n\
\n\	\n\
<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\	<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
<ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\	<ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
Line 7402 Interval (in months) between two waves:	Line 7673 Interval (in months) between two waves:
#endif	#endif
fclose(ficrespow);	fclose(ficrespow);

hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);	hesscov(matcov, hess, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);

for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)	for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)	for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];	matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];

printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");	printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
	fprintf(ficlog,"\nCovariance matrix\n ");
for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {	for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){	for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){
printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);	printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
	fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",matcov[i][j]);
}	}
printf("\n ");	printf("\n "); fprintf(ficlog,"\n ");
}	}

printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lfexp(%lf(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);	printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lfexp(%lf(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
Line 7475 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 7748 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);	free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
#endif	#endif
} /* Endof if mle==-3 mortality only */	} /* Endof if mle==-3 mortality only */
/* Standard maximisation */	/* Standard */
else{ /* For mle >=1 */	else{ /* For mle !=- 3, could be 0 or 1 or 4 etc. */
globpr=0;/* debug */	globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
/* Computes likelihood for initial parameters */	/* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */	likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);	printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)	for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);	printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
printf("\n");	printf("\n");
globpr=1; /* again, to print the contributions */	if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximization */
	/* mlikeli uses func not funcone */
	mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
	}
	if(mle==0) {/* No optimization, will print the likelihoods for the datafile */
	globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
	/* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
	likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
	}
	globpr=1; /* again, to print the individual contributions using computed gpimx and gsw */
likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */	likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);	printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)	for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);	printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
printf("\n");	printf("\n");
if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximisation */
mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
}

/--------- results files --------------/	/--------- results files --------------/
fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);	fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
Line 7519 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 7798 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
}	}
}	}
}	}
if(mle!=0){	if(mle != 0){
/* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */	/* Computing hessian and covariance matrix only at a peak of the Likelihood, that is after optimization */
ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */	ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);	hesscov(matcov, hess, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
}	printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");	fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");	for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){	for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){	if (k != i) {
if (k != i) {	printf("%d%d ",i,k);
printf("%d%d ",i,k);	fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);	for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){	printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));	fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));	jk++;
jk++;	}
	printf("\n");
	fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
}	}
printf("\n");
fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
}	}
}	}
}	} /* end of hesscov and Wald tests */

	/* */
fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");	fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");	printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");	fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
Line 7565 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 7845 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
}	}

fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n# ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");	fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n# ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
if(mle>=1)	if(mle >= 1) /* To big for the screen */
printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n# ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");	printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n# ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n# ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");	fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n# ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
/* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */	/* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
Line 7628 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 7908 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);	fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
}else{	}else{
if(mle>=1)	if(mle>=1)
printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);	printf(" %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);	fprintf(ficlog," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);	fprintf(ficres," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
}	}
}	}
}	}
Line 7758 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8038 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
/--------------- Prevalence limit (period or stable prevalence) --------------/	/--------------- Prevalence limit (period or stable prevalence) --------------/
/#include "prevlim.h"/ /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */	/#include "prevlim.h"/ /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);	prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
prevalence_limit(p, prlim, ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl);	prevalence_limit(p, prlim, ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, ncvyear);
fclose(ficrespl);	fclose(ficrespl);

#ifdef FREEEXIT2	#ifdef FREEEXIT2
Line 7821 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8101 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);	printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);	fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
}	}
printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);	printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(stdout);
fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);	fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(ficlog);
/*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){	/*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/	for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/

Line 7841 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8121 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
/}/	/}/
}	}
fclose(ficreseij);	fclose(ficreseij);
	printf("done evsij\n");fflush(stdout);
	fprintf(ficlog,"done evsij\n");fflush(ficlog);

/---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------/	/---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------/

Line 7852 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8133 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;	printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;	fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
}	}
printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);	printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(stdout);
fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);	fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(ficlog);


strcpy(fileresstde,"STDE_");	strcpy(fileresstde,"STDE_");
Line 7862 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8143 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);	printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);	fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
}	}
printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);	printf(" Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);	fprintf(ficlog," Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);

strcpy(filerescve,"CVE_");	strcpy(filerescve,"CVE_");
strcat(filerescve,fileresu);	strcat(filerescve,fileresu);
Line 7871 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8152 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);	printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);	fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
}	}
printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);	printf(" Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);	fprintf(ficlog," Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);

strcpy(fileresv,"V_");	strcpy(fileresv,"V_");
strcat(fileresv,fileresu);	strcat(fileresv,fileresu);
Line 7880 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8161 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);	printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);	fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
}	}
printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);	printf(" Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(stdout);
fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);	fprintf(ficlog," Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(ficlog);

/*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){	/*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/	for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/

for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){	for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");	fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);	fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");	fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");

fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");	fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");	fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);	fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);	fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
}	}
fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");	fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");	fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");

fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");	fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);	fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");	fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");

eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);	eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
oldm=oldms;savm=savms;	oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);	printf(" cvevsij %d, ",k);
/*	fprintf(ficlog, " cvevsij %d, ",k);
*/	cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
/* goto endfree; */	printf(" end cvevsij \n ");
	fprintf(ficlog, " end cvevsij \n ");
vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
pstamp(ficrest);	/*
	*/
	/* goto endfree; */
for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */	vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */	pstamp(ficrest);
varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n# (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
if(vpopbased==1)	for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);	oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
else	cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");	printf("varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
fprintf(ficrest,"# Age popbased mobilav e.. (std) ");	fprintf(ficlog, "varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);	varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, ncvyear, k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
fprintf(ficrest,"\n");	fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n# (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
/* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */	if(vpopbased==1)
epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);	fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){	else
prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k); /ZZ Is it the correct prevalim /	fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
if (vpopbased==1) {	fprintf(ficrest,"# Age popbased mobilav e.. (std) ");
if(mobilav ==0){	for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)	fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];	/* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
}else{ /* mobilav */	epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)	printf("Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];	fprintf(ficlog,"Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
}	for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
}	prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, ncvyear, k); /ZZ Is it the correct prevalim /
	if (vpopbased==1) {
fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav);	if(mobilav ==0){
/* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){	prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {	}else{ /* mobilav */
epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
/ZZZ printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);/	prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
/* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
}
epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
}	}
/* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */	}

for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)	fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav);
for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)	/* fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav,Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); / / to be done */
vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];	/* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */
fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));	for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){	for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));	epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
	/ZZZ printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);/
	/* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
}	}
fprintf(ficrest,"\n");	epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
}	}
	/* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */

	for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
	for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
	vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
	fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
	for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
	fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
	}
	fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
}	}
free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);	} /* End vpopbased */
free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);	free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);	free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
	free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
	printf("done \n");fflush(stdout);
	fprintf(ficlog,"done\n");fflush(ficlog);

/}/	/}/
}	} /* End k */
free_vector(weight,1,n);	free_vector(weight,1,n);
free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);	free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);	free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
Line 7981 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8275 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
fclose(ficrescveij);	fclose(ficrescveij);
fclose(ficresvij);	fclose(ficresvij);
fclose(ficrest);	fclose(ficrest);
	printf("done Health expectancies\n");fflush(stdout);
	fprintf(ficlog,"done Health expectancies\n");fflush(ficlog);
fclose(ficpar);	fclose(ficpar);

/------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------/	/------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------/
Line 7991 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8287 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);	printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
exit(0);	exit(0);
}	}
printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);	printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
	fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);

/*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){	/*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/	for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
Line 8004 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8301 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct

varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);	varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
oldm=oldms;savm=savms;	oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);	varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, ncvyear, k, strstart);
free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);	free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
/}/	/}/
}	}

fclose(ficresvpl);	fclose(ficresvpl);
	printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
	fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);

/---------- End : free ----------------/	/---------- End : free ----------------/
if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);	if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
Line 8023 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct	Line 8322 Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);	free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);	free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);	free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
	free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
/free_vector(delti,1,npar);/	/free_vector(delti,1,npar);/
free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);	free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);	free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);

FreeBSD-CVSweb <freebsd-cvsweb@FreeBSD.org>

Removed from v.1.202
changed lines
	Added in v.1.208