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Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.202 and 1.223

-version 1.202, 2015/09/22 19:45:16
+version 1.223, 2016/02/19 09:23:35
  Line 1
  /* $Id$
    $State$
    $Log$
+   Revision 1.223  2016/02/19 09:23:35  brouard
+   Summary: temporary
+   Revision 1.222  2016/02/17 08:14:50  brouard
+   Summary: Probably last 0.98 stable version 0.98r6
+   Revision 1.221  2016/02/15 23:35:36  brouard
+   Summary: minor bug
+   Revision 1.219  2016/02/15 00:48:12  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.218  2016/02/12 11:29:23  brouard
+   Summary: 0.99 Back projections
+   Revision 1.217  2015/12/23 17:18:31  brouard
+   Summary: Experimental backcast
+   Revision 1.216  2015/12/18 17:32:11  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r4 Warning and status=-2
+   Version 0.98r4 is now:
+    - displaying an error when status is -1, date of interview unknown and date of death known;
+    - permitting a status -2 when the vital status is unknown at a known date of right truncation.
+   Older changes concerning s=-2, dating from 2005 have been supersed.
+   Revision 1.215  2015/12/16 08:52:24  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r4 working
+   Revision 1.214  2015/12/16 06:57:54  brouard
+   Summary: temporary not working
+   Revision 1.213  2015/12/11 18:22:17  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r4
+   Revision 1.212  2015/11/21 12:47:24  brouard
+   Summary: minor typo
+   Revision 1.211  2015/11/21 12:41:11  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r3 with some graph of projected cross-sectional
+   Author: Nicolas Brouard
+   Revision 1.210  2015/11/18 17:41:20  brouard
+   Summary: Start working on projected prevalences
+   Revision 1.209  2015/11/17 22:12:03  brouard
+   Summary: Adding ftolpl parameter
+   Author: N Brouard
+   We had difficulties to get smoothed confidence intervals. It was due
+   to the period prevalence which wasn't computed accurately. The inner
+   parameter ftolpl is now an outer parameter of the .imach parameter
+   file after estepm. If ftolpl is small 1.e-4 and estepm too,
+   computation are long.
+   Revision 1.208  2015/11/17 14:31:57  brouard
+   Summary: temporary
+   Revision 1.207  2015/10/27 17:36:57  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.206  2015/10/24 07:14:11  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.205  2015/10/23 15:50:53  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r3 some clarification for graphs on likelihood contributions
+   Revision 1.204  2015/10/01 16:20:26  brouard
+   Summary: Some new graphs of contribution to likelihood
+   Revision 1.203  2015/09/30 17:45:14  brouard
+   Summary: looking at better estimation of the hessian
+   Also a better criteria for convergence to the period prevalence And
+   therefore adding the number of years needed to converge. (The
+   prevalence in any alive state shold sum to one
    Revision 1.202  2015/09/22 19:45:16  brouard
    Summary: Adding some overall graph on contribution to likelihood. Might change
- Line 588
+ Line 666
    hPijx.
    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
    of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence.
+ Back prevalence and projections:
+  - back_prevalence_limit(double *p, double **bprlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass, int mobilavproj)
+     Computes the back prevalence limit  for any combination     of covariate values k
+     at any age between ageminpar and agemaxpar and returns it in **bprlim. In the loops,
+    - **bprevalim(**bprlim, ***mobaverage, nlstate, *p, age, **oldm, **savm, **dnewm, **doldm, **dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
+  - hBijx Back Probability to be in state i at age x-h being in j at x
+    Computes for any combination of covariates k and any age between bage and fage
+    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+                         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+          - hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+      Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
+      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
+      nhstepm*hstepm matrices. Returns p3mat[i][j][h] after calling
+      p3mat[i][j][h]=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij),\
+,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
- Line 647
+ Line 742
  /* #define DEBUG */
  /* #define DEBUGBRENT */
- #define DEBUGLINMIN
+ /* #define DEBUGLINMIN */
+ /* #define DEBUGHESS */
+ #define DEBUGHESSIJ
+ /* #define LINMINORIGINAL  /\* Don't use loop on scale in linmin (accepting nan)*\/ */
  #define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */
  #define POWELLF1F3 /* Skip test */
  /* #define POWELLORIGINAL /\* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test *\/ */
- Line 719  typedef struct {
+ Line 817  typedef struct {
  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
  #define NCOVMAX 20 /**< Maximum number of covariates, including generated covariates V1*V2 */
  #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
+ /*#define decodtabm(h,k,cptcoveff)= (h <= (1<<cptcoveff)?(((h-1) >> (k-1)) & 1) +1 : -1)*/
+ #define decodtabm(h,k,cptcoveff) (((h-1) >> (k-1)) & 1) +1
  #define MAXN 20000
  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
- #define AGESUP 130
+ /* #define AGESUP 130 */
+ #define AGESUP 150
+ #define AGEMARGE 25 /* Marge for agemin and agemax for(iage=agemin-AGEMARGE; iage <= agemax+3+AGEMARGE; iage++) */
  #define AGEBASE 40
  #define AGEOVERFLOW 1.e20
  #define AGEGOMP 10 /**< Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
- Line 739  typedef struct {
+ Line 841  typedef struct {
  /* $State$ */
  #include "version.h"
  char version[]=__IMACH_VERSION__;
- char copyright[]="September 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
+ char copyright[]="October 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$";
  char strstart[80];
  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
- Line 753  int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariat
+ Line 855  int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariat
  int cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age */
  int cptcoveff=0; /* Total number of covariates to vary for printing results */
  int cptcov=0; /* Working variable */
+ int ncovcombmax=NCOVMAX; /* Maximum calculated number of covariate combination = pow(2, cptcoveff) */
  int npar=NPARMAX;
  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
  int ncovmodel=0, ncovcol=0;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
+ int  nqv=0, ntv=0, nqtv=0;    /* Total number of quantitative variables, time variable (dummy), quantitative and time variable */
  int popbased=0;
  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
- Line 775  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2
+ Line 879  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2
  double **matprod2(); /* test */
  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
+ double   **ddnewms, **ddoldms, **ddsavms; /* for freeing later */
  /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */
- FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
+ FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficresphtm, *ficresphtmfr, *ficrespl, *ficresplb,*ficrespij, *ficrespijb, *ficrest,*ficresf, *ficresfb,*ficrespop;
  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
  int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */
  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
- Line 799  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ Line 905  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
  FILE  *ficresvpl;
  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char title[MAXLINE];
- char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH],  fileresplb[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
  int  outcmd=0;
- char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespijb[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char fileresu[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* fileres without r in front */
  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
- Line 882  int *ncodemaxwundef;  /* ncodemax[j]= Nu
+ Line 988  int *ncodemaxwundef;  /* ncodemax[j]= Nu
                               covariate for which somebody answered including
                               undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
- double **pmmij, ***probs;
+ double **pmmij, ***probs; /* Global pointer */
+ double ***mobaverage, ***mobaverages; /* New global variable */
  double *ageexmed,*agecens;
  double dateintmean=0;
- Line 892  double *agedc;
+ Line 999  double *agedc;
  double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
                    * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
                    * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*age; */
+ double ***cotvar; /* Time varying covariate */
+ double ***cotqvar; /* Time varying quantitative covariate */
+ double **coqvar; /* Fixed quantitative covariate */
  double  idx;
  int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
  int *Tage;
  int *Ndum; /** Freq of modality (tricode */
  /* int **codtab;*/ /**< codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); */
- int **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
+ int **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff, *invalidvarcomb;
  double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
  double ftol=FTOL; /**< Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
- Line 930  static int split( char *path, char *dirc
+ Line 1040  static int split( char *path, char *dirc
      }
      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
-   } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
+   } else {                              /* strip directory from path */
      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
- Line 1338  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *pre
+ Line 1448  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *pre
    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
    return tmpout;
  }
+ /*************** function subdirfext ***********/
+ char *subdirfext(char fileres[], char *preop, char *postop)
+ {
+   strcpy(tmpout,preop);
+   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+   strcat(tmpout,postop);
+   return tmpout;
+ }
+ /*************** function subdirfext3 ***********/
+ char *subdirfext3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *postop)
+ {
+   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
+   strcat(tmpout,"/");
+   strcat(tmpout,preop);
+   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+   strcat(tmpout,postop);
+   return tmpout;
+ }
  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
  {
    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
- Line 1602  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1735  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
    double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
    double fx,fb,fa;
-   double scale=10., axs, xxs, xxss; /* Scale added for infinity */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
+ #else
+   double scale=10., axs, xxs; /* Scale added for infinity */
+ #endif
    ncom=n;
    pcom=vector(1,n);
    xicom=vector(1,n);
- Line 1613  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1749  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
      xicom[j]=xi[j]; /* Former scale xi[j] of currrent direction i */
    }
-   /* axs=0.0; */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
-   /* xxss=1; /\* 1 and using scale *\/ */
+   xx=1.;
-   xxs=1;
+ #else
-   /* do{ */
+   axs=0.0;
-     ax=0.;
+   xxs=1.;
+   do{
      xx= xxs;
+ #endif
+     ax=0.;
      mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);  /* Outputs: xtx[j]=pcom[j]+(*xx)*xicom[j]; fx=f(xtx[j]) */
      /* brackets with inputs ax=0 and xx=1, but points, pcom=p, and directions values, xicom=xi, are sent via f1dim(x) */
      /* xt[x,j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]  f(ax) = f(xt(a,j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 0 * xi(j)) and  f(xx) = f(xt(x, j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 1 * xi(j))   */
- Line 1626  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1765  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
      /* Given input ax=axs and xx=xxs, xx might be too far from ax to get a finite f(xx) */
      /* Searches on line, outputs (ax, xx, bx) such that fx < min(fa and fb) */
      /* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom, order may change. Scale is [0:xxs*xi[j]] et non plus  [0:xi[j]]*/
-   /*   if (fx != fx){ */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
-   /*    xxs=xxs/scale; /\* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 *\/ */
+ #else
-   /*    printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n",  axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx); */
+     if (fx != fx){
-   /*   } */
+         xxs=xxs/scale; /* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 */
-   /* }while(fx != fx); */
+         printf("|");
+         fprintf(ficlog,"|");
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+         printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n",  axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx);
+ #endif
+     }
+   }while(fx != fx);
+ #endif
  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
    printf("\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n",  ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
    fprintf(ficlog,"\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n",  ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
- Line 1650  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1796  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
    fprintf(ficlog,"linmin end ");
  #endif
    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-     /* printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]); */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
-     xi[j] *= xmin; /* xi rescaled by xmin: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
+     xi[j] *= xmin;
-     /* if(xxs <1.0) */
+ #else
-     /*   printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs ); */
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+     if(xxs <1.0)
+       printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]);
+ #endif
+     xi[j] *= xmin*xxs; /* xi rescaled by xmin and number of loops: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+     if(xxs <1.0)
+       printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs );
+ #endif
+ #endif
      p[j] += xi[j]; /* Parameters values are updated accordingly */
    }
-   /* printf("\n"); */
  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+   printf("\n");
    printf("Comparing last *frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, *fret, (*func)(p));
    fprintf(ficlog,"Comparing last *frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, *fret, (*func)(p));
    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- Line 1668  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1823  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
      }
    }
+ #else
  #endif
    free_vector(xicom,1,n);
    free_vector(pcom,1,n);
- Line 1745  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 1901  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; /* Directions stored from previous iteration with previous scales */
        fptt=(*fret);
  #ifdef DEBUG
-           printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
+       printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
-           fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
+       fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
  #endif
-           printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
+       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* Point p[n]. xit[n] has been loaded for direction i as input.*/
                                      /* Outputs are fret(new point p) p is updated and xit rescaled */
- Line 1917  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 2073  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
  /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
- double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
+ double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij)
  {
-   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
+   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x and for covariate ij by left multiplying the unit
-      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
+      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached with precision ftolpl */
+   /* Wx= Wx-1 Px-1= Wx-2 Px-2 Px-1  = Wx-n Px-n ... Px-2 Px-1 I */
+   /* Wx is row vector: population in state 1, population in state 2, population dead */
+   /* or prevalence in state 1, prevalence in state 2, 0 */
+   /* newm is the matrix after multiplications, its rows are identical at a factor */
+   /* Initial matrix pimij */
+   /* {0.85204250825084937, 0.13044499163996345, 0.017512500109187184, */
+   /* 0.090851990222114765, 0.88271245433047185, 0.026435555447413338, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /*
+    * and after some iteration: */
+   /* {0.45504275246439968, 0.42731458730878791, 0.11764266022681241, */
+   /*  0.45201005341706885, 0.42865420071559901, 0.11933574586733192, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /* And prevalence by suppressing the deaths are close to identical rows in prlim: */
+   /* {0.51571254859325999, 0.4842874514067399, */
+   /*  0.51326036147820708, 0.48673963852179264} */
+   /* If we start from prlim again, prlim tends to a constant matrix */
    int i, ii,j,k;
-   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
+   double *min, *max, *meandiff, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
    /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
-   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij(); /* **pmmij is a global variable feeded with oldms etc */
    double **newm;
-   double agefin, delaymax=100 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
+   double agefin, delaymax=200. ; /* 100 Max number of years to converge */
-   long int ncvyear=0, ncvloop=0;
+   int ncvloop=0;
+   min=vector(1,nlstate);
+   max=vector(1,nlstate);
+   meandiff=vector(1,nlstate);
+         /* Starting with matrix unity */
    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- Line 1948  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
+ Line 2126  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
        cov[3]= agefin*agefin;;
      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
        /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+                         /* Here comes the value of the covariate 'ij' */
        cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
        /* printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]); */
      }
- Line 1963  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
+ Line 2142  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
      /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
      /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+                 /* age and covariate values of ij are in 'cov' */
      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
      savm=oldm;
      oldm=newm;
-     maxmax=0.;
-     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
-       min=1.;
+       max[j]=0.;
-       max=0.;
+       min[j]=1.;
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
+     }
-         sumnew=0;
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
-         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
+       sumnew=0;
+       for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
-         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
+         max[j]=FMAX(max[j],prlim[i][j]);
-         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
+         min[j]=FMIN(min[j],prlim[i][j]);
-         /* printf(" age= %d prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d max=%f min=%f\n", (int)age, i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin, max, min); */
        }
-       maxmin=max-min;
+     }
-       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
+     maxmax=0.;
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
+       meandiff[j]=(max[j]-min[j])/(max[j]+min[j])*2.; /* mean difference for each column */
+       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,meandiff[j]);
+       /* printf(" age= %d meandiff[%d]=%f, agefin=%d max[%d]=%f min[%d]=%f maxmax=%f\n", (int)age, j, meandiff[j],(int)agefin, j, max[j], j, min[j],maxmax); */
      } /* j loop */
+     *ncvyear= (int)age- (int)agefin;
+     /* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
-       /* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%ld, ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */
+       /* printf("maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%ld, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
+       free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
        return prlim;
      }
    } /* age loop */
-   printf("Warning: the stable prevalence did not converge with the required precision ftolpl=6*10^5*ftol=%g. \n\
+     /* After some age loop it doesn't converge */
- Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%ld, ncvyear=%d\n\
+   printf("Warning: the stable prevalence at age %d did not converge with the required precision (%g > ftolpl=%g) within %.0f years. Try to lower 'ftolpl'. \n\
- Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin);
+ Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%d, ncvyear=%d\n", (int)age, maxmax, ftolpl, delaymax, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, *ncvyear);
+   /* Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */
+   free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
    return prlim; /* should not reach here */
  }
+  /**** Back Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
+  /* double **bprevalim(double **bprlim, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij) */
+  /* double **bprevalim(double **bprlim, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij) */
+  double **bprevalim(double **bprlim, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij)
+ {
+   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x and covariate ij by left multiplying the unit
+      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached with precision ftolpl */
+   /* Wx= Wx-1 Px-1= Wx-2 Px-2 Px-1  = Wx-n Px-n ... Px-2 Px-1 I */
+   /* Wx is row vector: population in state 1, population in state 2, population dead */
+   /* or prevalence in state 1, prevalence in state 2, 0 */
+   /* newm is the matrix after multiplications, its rows are identical at a factor */
+   /* Initial matrix pimij */
+   /* {0.85204250825084937, 0.13044499163996345, 0.017512500109187184, */
+   /* 0.090851990222114765, 0.88271245433047185, 0.026435555447413338, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /*
+    * and after some iteration: */
+   /* {0.45504275246439968, 0.42731458730878791, 0.11764266022681241, */
+   /*  0.45201005341706885, 0.42865420071559901, 0.11933574586733192, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /* And prevalence by suppressing the deaths are close to identical rows in prlim: */
+   /* {0.51571254859325999, 0.4842874514067399, */
+   /*  0.51326036147820708, 0.48673963852179264} */
+   /* If we start from prlim again, prlim tends to a constant matrix */
+   int i, ii,j,k;
+   double *min, *max, *meandiff, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
+   /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **bmij();
+   double **newm;
+   double         **dnewm, **doldm, **dsavm;  /* for use */
+   double         **oldm, **savm;  /* for use */
+   double agefin, delaymax=200. ; /* 100 Max number of years to converge */
+   int ncvloop=0;
+   min=vector(1,nlstate);
+   max=vector(1,nlstate);
+   meandiff=vector(1,nlstate);
+         dnewm=ddnewms; doldm=ddoldms; dsavm=ddsavms;
+         oldm=oldms; savm=savms;
+         /* Starting with matrix unity */
+         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+                 for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     }
+   cov[1]=1.;
+   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+   /* Start at agefin= age, computes the matrix of passage and loops decreasing agefin until convergence is reached */
+   /* for(agefin=age+stepm/YEARM; agefin<=age+delaymax; agefin=agefin+stepm/YEARM){ /\* A changer en age *\/ */
+   for(agefin=age; agefin<AGESUP; agefin=agefin+stepm/YEARM){ /* A changer en age */
+     ncvloop++;
+     newm=savm; /* oldm should be kept from previous iteration or unity at start */
+                 /* newm points to the allocated table savm passed by the function it can be written, savm could be reallocated */
+     /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+     cov[2]=agefin;
+     if(nagesqr==1)
+       cov[3]= agefin*agefin;;
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+       /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+       cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+       /* printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]); */
+     }
+     /*wrong? for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+     /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]*cov[2]; */
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless */
+       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+       cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+     /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
+     /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
+     /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
+     /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
+     /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+                 /* ij should be linked to the correct index of cov */
+                 /* age and covariate values ij are in 'cov', but we need to pass
+                  * ij for the observed prevalence at age and status and covariate
+                  * number:  prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]
+                  */
+     /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, ageminpar, agemaxpar, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+     /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+     out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent,ij)); /* Bug Valgrind */
+     savm=oldm;
+     oldm=newm;
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
+       max[j]=0.;
+       min[j]=1.;
+     }
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+                                 /* bprlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew); */
+                                 bprlim[i][j]= newm[i][j];
+                                 max[i]=FMAX(max[i],bprlim[i][j]); /* Max in line */
+                                 min[i]=FMIN(min[i],bprlim[i][j]);
+       }
+     }
+     maxmax=0.;
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
+       meandiff[i]=(max[i]-min[i])/(max[i]+min[i])*2.; /* mean difference for each column */
+       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,meandiff[i]);
+       /* printf("Back age= %d meandiff[%d]=%f, agefin=%d max[%d]=%f min[%d]=%f maxmax=%f\n", (int)age, i, meandiff[i],(int)agefin, i, max[i], i, min[i],maxmax); */
+     } /* j loop */
+     *ncvyear= -( (int)age- (int)agefin);
+     /* printf("Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear);*/
+     if(maxmax < ftolpl){
+       /* printf("OK Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
+       free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
+       return bprlim;
+     }
+   } /* age loop */
+     /* After some age loop it doesn't converge */
+   printf("Warning: the back stable prevalence at age %d did not converge with the required precision (%g > ftolpl=%g) within %.0f years. Try to lower 'ftolpl'. \n\
+ Oldest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%d, ncvyear=%d\n", (int)age, maxmax, ftolpl, delaymax, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, *ncvyear);
+   /* Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */
+   free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
+   return bprlim; /* should not reach here */
+ }
  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
- Line 2014  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2341  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
    /*double t34;*/
    int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
-     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-       for(j=1; j<i;j++){
+     for(j=1; j<i;j++){
-         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+       for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-           /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
+         /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
-           lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+         lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
- /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
+         /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
-         }
-         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
- /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
-       }
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-           /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
-           lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
- /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
-         }
-         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
        }
+       ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+       /*        printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
      }
+     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+       for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-       s1=0;
+         /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
-       for(j=1; j<i; j++){
+         lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
-         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
+         /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
-         /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-       }
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
-         /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-       }
-       /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
-       ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
-       /* Computing other pijs */
-       for(j=1; j<i; j++)
-         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
-         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-       /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
-     } /* end i */
-     for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
-       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
-         ps[ii][jj]=0;
-         ps[ii][ii]=1;
        }
+       ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
      }
+   }
-     /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
+   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-     /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
+     s1=0;
-     /*  printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
+     for(j=1; j<i; j++){
-     /*   } */
+       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
-     /*   printf("\n "); */
+       /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-     /* } */
+     }
-     /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
+     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-     /*
+       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
-       for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
+       /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-       goto end;*/
+     }
-     return ps;
+     /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
+     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
+     /* Computing other pijs */
+     for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
+   } /* end i */
+   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+       ps[ii][jj]=0;
+       ps[ii][ii]=1;
+     }
+   }
+   /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
+   /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
+   /*    printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
+   /*   } */
+   /*   printf("\n "); */
+   /* } */
+   /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
+   /*
+     for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
+                 goto end;*/
+   return ps;
+ }
+ /*************** backward transition probabilities ***************/
+  /* double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ***dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
+ /* double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, double ***dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
+  double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, int ij )
+ {
+   /* Computes the backward probability at age agefin and covariate ij
+    * and returns in **ps as well as **bmij.
+    */
+   int i, ii, j,k;
+   double **out, **pmij();
+   double sumnew=0.;
+   double agefin;
+   double **dnewm, **dsavm, **doldm;
+   double **bbmij;
+   doldm=ddoldms; /* global pointers */
+   dnewm=ddnewms;
+   dsavm=ddsavms;
+   agefin=cov[2];
+   /* bmij *//* age is cov[2], ij is included in cov, but we need for
+      the observed prevalence (with this covariate ij) */
+   dsavm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+   /* We do have the matrix Px in savm  and we need pij */
+   for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+     sumnew=0.; /* w1 p11 + w2 p21 only on live states */
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate;ii++){
+       sumnew+=dsavm[ii][j]*prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij];
+     } /* sumnew is (N11+N21)/N..= N.1/N.. = sum on i of w_i pij */
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       if(sumnew >= 1.e-10){
+         /* if(agefin >= agemaxpar && agefin <= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
+         /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+         /* }else if(agefin >= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
+         /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+         /* }else */
+         doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0);
+       }else{
+         printf("ii=%d, i=%d, doldm=%lf dsavm=%lf, probs=%lf, sumnew=%lf,agefin=%d\n",ii,j,doldm[ii][j],dsavm[ii][j],prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij],sumnew, (int)agefin);
+       }
+     } /*End ii */
+   } /* End j, At the end doldm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
+   /* left Product of this diag matrix by dsavm=Px (newm=dsavm*doldm) */
+   bbmij=matprod2(dnewm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, doldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
+   /* dsavm=doldm; /\* dsavm is now diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] but can be overwritten*\/ */
+   /* doldm=dnewm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
+   /* dnewm=dsavm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
+   /* left Product of this matrix by diag matrix of prevalences (savm) */
+   for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij] : 0.0);
+     }
+   } /* End j, At the end oldm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
+   ps=matprod2(doldm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, dnewm); /* Bug Valgrind */
+   /* newm or out is now diag[w_i] * Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
+   /* end bmij */
+   return ps;
+ }
+ /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
+ double **bpmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
+ {
+   /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
+      computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
+      model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
+      lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
+      and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
+      ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
+      j<i nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel
+      j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
+      Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
+      sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
+      Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
+      the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
+   */
+   double s1, lnpijopii;
+   /*double t34;*/
+   int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
+         for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+                 for(j=1; j<i;j++){
+                         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+                                 /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
+                                 lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+                                 /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
+                         }
+                         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+                         /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
+                 }
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+                         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+                                 /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
+                                 lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+                                 /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
+                         }
+                         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+                 }
+         }
+         for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+                 s1=0;
+                 for(j=1; j<i; j++){
+                         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
+                         /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
+                 }
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+                         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
+                         /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
+                 }
+                 /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
+                 ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
+                 /* Computing other pijs */
+                 for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+                         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+                         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+                 /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
+         } /* end i */
+         for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+                 for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+                         ps[ii][jj]=0;
+                         ps[ii][ii]=1;
+                 }
+         }
+         /* Added for backcast */ /* Transposed matrix too */
+         for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+                 s1=0.;
+                 for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+                         s1+=ps[ii][jj];
+                 }
+                 for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate; ii++){
+                         ps[ii][jj]=ps[ii][jj]/s1;
+                 }
+         }
+         /* Transposition */
+         for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+                 for(ii=jj; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+                         s1=ps[ii][jj];
+                         ps[ii][jj]=ps[jj][ii];
+                         ps[jj][ii]=s1;
+                 }
+         }
+         /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
+         /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
+         /*      printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
+         /*   } */
+         /*   printf("\n "); */
+         /* } */
+         /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
+         /*
+                 for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
+                 goto end;*/
+         return ps;
  }
  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,int nrl, int nrh, int ncl, int nch, int ncolol, int ncoloh, double **b)
- Line 2099  double **matprod2(double **out, double *
+ Line 2586  double **matprod2(double **out, double *
  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
  {
-   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' and combination of covariate values corresponding to ij over
       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
       nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
- Line 2115  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 2602  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
    double **newm;
    double agexact;
+   double agebegin, ageend;
    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
- Line 2128  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 2616  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
        newm=savm;
        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
        cov[1]=1.;
-       agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
+       agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition */
        cov[2]=agexact;
        if(nagesqr==1)
-         cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
+                                 cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++)
-         cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-         /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
-         /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+                                 /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
-         cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
-         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
-         cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
+                         /* right multiplication of oldm by the current matrix */
        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+       /* if((int)age == 70){ */
+       /*        printf(" Forward hpxij age=%d agexact=%f d=%d nhstepm=%d hstepm=%d\n", (int) age, agexact, d, nhstepm, hstepm); */
+       /*        for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
+       /*          printf("%d pmmij ",i); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",pmmij[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf(" oldm "); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",oldm[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf("\n"); */
+       /*        } */
+       /* } */
+       savm=oldm;
+       oldm=newm;
+     }
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
+       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+                                 po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
+                                 /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
+       }
+     /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
+   } /* end h */
+         /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+   return po;
+ }
+ /************* Higher Back Matrix Product ***************/
+ /* double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
+ double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, int ij )
+ {
+   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
+      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
+      nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
+      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step
+      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big
+      for the memory).
+      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be
+      included manually here.
+   */
+   int i, j, d, h, k;
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
+   double **newm;
+   double agexact;
+   double agebegin, ageend;
+   double **oldm, **savm;
+   oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
+   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     }
+   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
+     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
+       newm=savm;
+       /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+       cov[1]=1.;
+       agexact=age-((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition */
+       /* agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /\* age just before transition *\/ */
+       cov[2]=agexact;
+       if(nagesqr==1)
+         cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++)
+         cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+       /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
+         /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+         cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
+         cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
+       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
+       /* Careful transposed matrix */
+       /* age is in cov[2] */
+       /* out=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij),\ */
+       /*                                                 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); */
+       out=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent,ij),\
+,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
+       /* if((int)age == 70){ */
+       /*        printf(" Backward hbxij age=%d agexact=%f d=%d nhstepm=%d hstepm=%d\n", (int) age, agexact, d, nhstepm, hstepm); */
+       /*        for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
+       /*          printf("%d pmmij ",i); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",pmmij[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf(" oldm "); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",oldm[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf("\n"); */
+       /*        } */
+       /* } */
        savm=oldm;
        oldm=newm;
      }
- Line 2158  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 2750  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
        }
      /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
    } /* end h */
- /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+   /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
    return po;
  }
  #ifdef NLOPT
    double  myfunc(unsigned n, const double *p1, double *grad, void *pd){
    double fret;
- Line 2186  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 2779  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
  double func( double *x)
  {
    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
+         int ioffset;
    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
    double **out;
    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
    int s1, s2;
+   int iv=0, iqv=0, itv=0, iqtv=0 ; /* Index of varying covariate, fixed quantitative cov, time varying covariate */
    double bbh, survp;
    long ipmx;
    double agexact;
- Line 2210  double func( double *x)
+ Line 2805  double func( double *x)
    if(mle==1){
      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
        /* Computes the values of the ncovmodel covariates of the model
-          depending if the covariates are fixed or variying (age dependent) and stores them in cov[]
+          depending if the covariates are fixed or varying (age dependent) and stores them in cov[]
           Then computes with function pmij which return a matrix p[i][j] giving the elementary probability
           to be observed in j being in i according to the model.
         */
+       ioffset=2+nagesqr;
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++){ /* Simple and product covariates without age* products */
-           cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+          cov[++ioffset]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
        }
+       for(iqv=1; iqv <= nqv; iqv++){ /* Varying quantitatives covariates */
+         /* cov[2+nagesqr+cptcovn+iqv]=varq[mw[mi+1][i]][iqv][i]; */
+       }
        /* In model V2+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2 Tvar[1] is V2, Tvar[2=V1*V4]
           is 6, Tvar[3=age*V3] should not be computed because of age Tvar[4=V3*V2]
           has been calculated etc */
+       /* For an individual i, wav[i] gives the number of effective waves */
+       /* We compute the contribution to Likelihood of each effective transition
+          mw[mi][i] is real wave of the mi th effectve wave */
+       /* Then statuses are computed at each begin and end of an effective wave s1=s[ mw[mi][i] ][i];
+         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+         And the iv th varying covariate is the cotvar[mw[mi+1][i]][iv][i]
+         But if the variable is not in the model TTvar[iv] is the real variable effective in the model:
+         meaning that decodemodel should be used cotvar[mw[mi+1][i]][TTvar[iv]][i]
+       */
        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+         for(itv=1; itv <= ntv; itv++){ /* Varying dummy covariates */
+           cov[++ioffset]=cotvar[mw[mi+1][i]][itv][i];
+         }
+         for(iqtv=1; iqtv <= nqtv; iqtv++){ /* Varying quantitatives covariates */
+           /* cov[2+nagesqr+cptcovn+nqv+ntv+iqtv]=varq[mw[mi+1][i]][iqtv][i]; */
+         }
+         ioffset=2+nagesqr+cptcovn+nqv+ntv+nqtv;
          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- Line 2231  double func( double *x)
+ Line 2847  double func( double *x)
            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
            cov[2]=agexact;
            if(nagesqr==1)
-             cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
+             cov[3]= agexact*agexact;  /* Should be changed here */
            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact; /* Tage[kk] gives the data-covariate associated with age */
            }
- Line 2305  double func( double *x)
+ Line 2921  double func( double *x)
  /*        else */
  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
  /* #endif */
-             lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+           lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-         } else if  (s2==-2) {
+         } else if  ( s2==-1 ) { /* alive */
            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
            /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
            lli= log(survp);
          }
          else if  (s2==-4) {
            for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
            lli= log(survp);
          }
          else if  (s2==-5) {
            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)
              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
            lli= log(survp);
          }
          else{
            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
- Line 2437  double func( double *x)
+ Line 3050  double func( double *x)
          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
          if( s2 > nlstate){
            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+         } else if  ( s2==-1 ) { /* alive */
+           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
+             survp += out[s1][j];
+           lli= log(survp);
          }else{
            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
          }
- Line 2499  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3116  double funcone( double *x)
    int s1, s2;
    double bbh, survp;
    double agexact;
+   double agebegin, ageend;
    /*extern weight */
    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
- Line 2517  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3135  double funcone( double *x)
            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
          }
-       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+       agebegin=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]; /* Age at beginning of effective wave */
+       ageend=agev[mw[mi][i]][i] + (dh[mi][i])*stepm/YEARM; /* Age at end of effective wave and at the end of transition */
+       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){  /* Delay between two effective waves */
+         /*dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
+           and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.*/
          newm=savm;
          agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
          cov[2]=agexact;
- Line 2538  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3161  double funcone( double *x)
        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+       /* if(s2==-1){ */
+       /*        printf(" s1=%d, s2=%d i=%d \n", s1, s2, i); */
+       /*        /\* exit(1); *\/ */
+       /* } */
        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
        /* bias is positive if real duration
         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
         */
        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-       } else if  (s2==-2) {
+       } else if  ( s2==-1 ) { /* alive */
          for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
          lli= log(survp);
- Line 2565  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3192  double funcone( double *x)
        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
        /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
        if(globpr){
-         fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
+         fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6.1f %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %11.6f %8.4f %8.3f\
   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
-                 num[i], agexact, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
+                 num[i], agebegin, ageend, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],weight[i]*gipmx/gsw,
 *weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
- Line 2605  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
+ Line 3232  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
      }
-     fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
+     fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) count ageb ageend s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight weight/gpw -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
-     fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i age i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
+     fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i ageb agend i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight %%weight 2wlli out sav ");
      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++)
        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
- Line 2616  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
+ Line 3243  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
    if(*globpri !=0){
      fclose(ficresilk);
-     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with initial parameters and mle >= 1. You should at least run with mle >= 1 and starting values corresponding to the optimized parameters in order to visualize the real contribution of each individual/wave: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
+     if (mle ==0)
-     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- The first 3 individuals are drawn with lines. The function drawn is -2Log(L) in log scale: <a href=\"%s.png\">%s.png</a><br> \
+       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with initial parameters and mle = %d.",mle);
- <img src=\"%s.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
+     else if(mle >=1)
+       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with optimized parameters mle = %d.",mle);
+     fprintf(fichtm," You should at least run with mle >= 1 to get starting values corresponding to the optimized parameters in order to visualize the real contribution of each individual/wave: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
+     for (k=1; k<= nlstate ; k++) {
+       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probability p<sub>%dj</sub> by origin %d and destination j. Dot's sizes are related to corresponding weight: <a href=\"%s-p%dj.png\">%s-p%dj.png</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s-p%dj.png\">",k,k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k);
+     }
+     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- The function drawn is -2Log(L) in Log scale: by state of origin <a href=\"%s-ori.png\">%s-ori.png</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s-ori.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
+     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- and by state of destination <a href=\"%s-dest.png\">%s-dest.png</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s-dest.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
      fflush(fichtm);
    }
    return;
  }
- Line 2694  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in
+ Line 3333  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in
  #endif
    free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
    fclose(ficrespow);
-   printf("#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
+   printf("\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
-   fprintf(ficlog,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
  }
  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
- void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
+ void hesscov(double **matcov, double **hess, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
  {
    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
-   double **hess;
+   /* double **hess; */
    int i, j;
    int *indx;
    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
-   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
+   double hessij(double p[], double **hess, double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
    double gompertz(double p[]);
-   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+   /* hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar); */
    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+     printf("%d-",i);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%d-",i);fflush(ficlog);
       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
- Line 2730  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
+ Line 3369  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
        if (j>i) {
-         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
+         printf(".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
-         fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
+         fprintf(ficlog,".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
-         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
+         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,hess, delti,i,j,func,npar);
          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
- Line 2766  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
+ Line 3405  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+       printf("%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
      }
      printf("\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    }
+   /* printf("\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
+   /* fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
+   /* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  */
+   /*   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  */
+   /*     printf("%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
+   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
+   /*   } */
+   /*   printf("\n"); */
+   /*   fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
+   /* } */
    /* Recompute Inverse */
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+   /* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) */
-     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
+   /*   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j]; */
-   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+   /* ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd); */
+   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n"); */
+   /* for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { */
+   /*   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0; */
+   /*   x[j]=1; */
+   /*   lubksb(a,npar,indx,x); */
+   /*   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  */
+   /*     y[i][j]=x[i]; */
+   /*     printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
+   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
+   /*   } */
+   /*   printf("\n"); */
+   /*   fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
+   /* } */
+   /* Verifying the inverse matrix */
+ #ifdef DEBUGHESS
+   y=matprod2(y,hess,1,npar,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
+    printf("\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix, should be unity:#\n");
+    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix. Should be unity:#\n");
    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
-     x[j]=1;
-     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-       y[i][j]=x[i];
+       printf("%.2f ",y[i][j]);
-       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%.2f ",y[i][j]);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
      }
      printf("\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    }
-   */
+ #endif
    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
    free_vector(x,1,npar);
    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
+   /* free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar); */
  }
  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
- {
+ { /* Around values of x, computes the function func and returns the scales delti and hessian */
    int i;
    int l=1, lmax=20;
-   double k1,k2;
+   double k1,k2, res, fx;
    double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
-   double res;
    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
-   double fx;
    int k=0,kmax=10;
    double l1;
- Line 2828  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
+ Line 3492  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
        k2=func(p2)-fx;
        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
-       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
+       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by 2 because L and not 2*L */
- #ifdef DEBUGHESS
+ #ifdef DEBUGHESSII
        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
  #endif
- Line 2844  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
+ Line 3508  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){
          delts=delt;
        }
-     }
+     } /* End loop k */
    }
    delti[theta]=delts;
    return res;
  }
- double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
+ double hessij( double x[], double **hess, double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
  {
    int i;
    int l=1, lmax=20;
    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
    double p2[MAXPARM+1];
-   int k;
+   int k, kmax=1;
+   double v1, v2, cv12, lc1, lc2;
+   int firstime=0;
    fx=func(x);
-   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
+   for (k=1; k<=kmax; k=k+10) {
      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
      k1=func(p2)-fx;
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
      k2=func(p2)-fx;
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
      k3=func(p2)-fx;
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
      k4=func(p2)-fx;
-     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
+     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]/k/delti[thetaj]/k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
- #ifdef DEBUG
+     if(k1*k2*k3*k4 <0.){
-     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       firstime=1;
-     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       kmax=kmax+10;
+     }
+     if(kmax >=10 || firstime ==1){
+       printf("Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; you may increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; you may increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
+       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti*k=%.12e deltj*k=%.12e, xi-de*k=%.12e xj-de*k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti*k=%.12e deltj*k=%.12e, xi-de*k=%.12e xj-de*k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+     }
+ #ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ
+     v1=hess[thetai][thetai];
+     v2=hess[thetaj][thetaj];
+     cv12=res;
+     /* Computing eigen value of Hessian matrix */
+     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+     if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
+       printf("Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
+       fprintf(ficlog, "Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
+       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+     }
  #endif
    }
    return res;
  }
+     /* Not done yet: Was supposed to fix if not exactly at the maximum */
+ /* double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar) */
+ /* { */
+ /*   int i; */
+ /*   int l=1, lmax=20; */
+ /*   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx; */
+ /*   double p2[MAXPARM+1]; */
+ /*   double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4; */
+ /*   int k=0,kmax=10; */
+ /*   double l1; */
+ /*   fx=func(x); */
+ /*   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /\* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum *\/ */
+ /*     l1=pow(10,l); */
+ /*     delts=delt; */
+ /*     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){ */
+ /*       delt = delti*(l1*k); */
+ /*       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i]; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k1=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k2=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k3=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k4=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /\* Because of L not 2*L *\/ */
+ /* #ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ */
+ /*       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
+ /*       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
+ /* #endif */
+ /*       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)|| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)|| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)){ */
+ /*      k=kmax; */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif) || (k4 >khi/nkhif) || (k4 >khi/nkhif)){ /\* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. *\/ */
+ /*      k=kmax; l=lmax*10; */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){  */
+ /*      delts=delt; */
+ /*       } */
+ /*     } /\* End loop k *\/ */
+ /*   } */
+ /*   delti[theta]=delts; */
+ /*   return res;  */
+ /* } */
  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)
  {
- Line 2966  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
+ Line 3707  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
  }
  /************ Frequencies ********************/
- void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
+  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, \
- {  /* Some frequencies */
+                                                                          int *Tvaraff, int *invalidvarcomb, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[],  \
+                                                                          int firstpass,  int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[])
-   int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
+  {  /* Some frequencies */
-   int first;
-   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
+          int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
-   double *pp, **prop;
+          int iind=0, iage=0;
-   double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
+          int mi; /* Effective wave */
-   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
+          int first;
+          double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
-   pp=vector(1,nlstate);
+          double *pp, **prop, *posprop, *pospropt;
-   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+          double pos=0., posproptt=0., pospropta=0., k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
-   strcpy(fileresp,"P_");
+          char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresphtm[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresphtmfr[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   strcat(fileresp,fileresu);
+          double agebegin, ageend;
-   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
-     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+          pp=vector(1,nlstate);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+          prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
-     exit(0);
+          posprop=vector(1,nlstate); /* Counting the number of transition starting from a live state per age */
-   }
+          pospropt=vector(1,nlstate); /* Counting the number of transition starting from a live state */
-   freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+          /* prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); */
-   j1=0;
+          strcpy(fileresp,"P_");
+          strcat(fileresp,fileresu);
-   j=cptcoveff;
+          /*strcat(fileresphtm,fileresu);*/
-   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+          if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
+                  printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+                  fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+                  exit(0);
+          }
+          strcpy(fileresphtm,subdirfext(optionfilefiname,"PHTM_",".htm"));
+          if((ficresphtm=fopen(fileresphtm,"w"))==NULL) {
+                  printf("Problem with prevalence HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtm,strerror(errno));
+                  fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtm,strerror(errno));
+                  fflush(ficlog);
+                  exit(70);
+          }
+          else{
+                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh PHTM_ %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
+                                                  fileresphtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
+          }
+          fprintf(ficresphtm,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Frequencies and prevalence by age at begin of transition</h4>\n",fileresphtm, fileresphtm);
+          strcpy(fileresphtmfr,subdirfext(optionfilefiname,"PHTMFR_",".htm"));
+          if((ficresphtmfr=fopen(fileresphtmfr,"w"))==NULL) {
+                  printf("Problem with frequency table HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtmfr,strerror(errno));
+                  fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with frequency table HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtmfr,strerror(errno));
+                  fflush(ficlog);
+                  exit(70);
+          }
+          else{
+                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh PHTM_Frequency table %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
+                                                  fileresphtmfr,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
+          }
+          fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Frequencies of all effective transitions by age at begin of transition </h4>Unknown status is -1<br/>\n",fileresphtmfr, fileresphtmfr);
+          freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
+          j1=0;
+          j=cptcoveff;
+          if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+          first=1;
+          /* Detects if a combination j1 is empty: for a multinomial variable like 3 education levels:
+                         reference=low_education V1=0,V2=0
+                         med_educ                V1=1 V2=0,
+                         high_educ               V1=0 V2=1
+                         Then V1=1 and V2=1 is a noisy combination that we want to exclude for the list 2**cptcoveff
+          */
-   first=1;
+          for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){ /* Loop on covariates combination */
+                  posproptt=0.;
+                  /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
+                          scanf("%d", i);*/
+                  for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
+                          for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+                                  for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+                                          freq[i][jk][m]=0;
+                  for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  {
+                          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+                                  prop[i][m]=0;
+                          posprop[i]=0;
+                          pospropt[i]=0;
+                  }
+                  dateintsum=0;
+                  k2cpt=0;
-   /* for(k1=1; k1<=j ; k1++){ */  /* Loop on covariates */
+                  for (iind=1; iind<=imx; iind++) { /* For each individual iind */
-   /*  for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */ /* Now it is 2 */
+                          bool=1;
-   /*    j1++; */
+                          if (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
-   for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){
+                                  for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) {
-       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
+                                          if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][iind]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]){
-         scanf("%d", i);*/
+                                                  /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
-       for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
+                                                  bool=0;
-         for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+                                                  /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, j1=%d\n",
-           for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
-             freq[i][jk][m]=0;
-       for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
-         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
-           prop[i][m]=0;
-       dateintsum=0;
-       k2cpt=0;
-       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
-         bool=1;
-         if  (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
-           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
-             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]){
-                 /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
-               bool=0;
-               /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtabm(%d,%d)=%d, j1=%d\n",
                  bool,i,z1, z1, Tvaraff[z1],i,covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i],j1,z1,codtabm(j1,z1),
                  j1,z1,nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)],j1);*/
-               /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtabm(7,3)=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
+                                                  /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtabm(7,3)=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
-             }
+                                          }
-         }
+                                  } /* end z1 */
+                          } /* cptcovn > 0 */
-         if (bool==1){
-           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
+                          if (bool==1){
-             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
+                                  /* for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){ */
-             /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
+                                  for(mi=1; mi<wav[iind];mi++){
-               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
+                                          m=mw[mi][iind];
-               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
+                                          /* dh[m][iind] or dh[mw[mi][iind]][iind] is the delay between two effective (mi) waves m=mw[mi][iind]
-               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+                                                         and mw[mi+1][iind]. dh depends on stepm. */
-               if (m<lastpass) {
+                                          agebegin=agev[m][iind]; /* Age at beginning of wave before transition*/
-                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+                                          ageend=agev[m][iind]+(dh[m][iind])*stepm/YEARM; /* Age at end of wave and transition */
-                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
+                                          if(m >=firstpass && m <=lastpass){
-               }
+                                                  k2=anint[m][iind]+(mint[m][iind]/12.);
+                                                  /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
-               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
+                                                  if(agev[m][iind]==0) agev[m][iind]=iagemax+1;  /* All ages equal to 0 are in iagemax+1 */
-                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
+                                                  if(agev[m][iind]==1) agev[m][iind]=iagemax+2;  /* All ages equal to 1 are in iagemax+2 */
-                 k2cpt++;
+                                                  if (s[m][iind]>0 && s[m][iind]<=nlstate)  /* If status at wave m is known and a live state */
-               }
+                                                          prop[s[m][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind];  /* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
-               /*}*/
+                                                  if (m<lastpass) {
-           }
+                                                          /* if(s[m][iind]==4 && s[m+1][iind]==4) */
-         }
+                                                          /*   printf(" num=%ld m=%d, iind=%d s1=%d s2=%d agev at m=%d\n", num[iind], m, iind,s[m][iind],s[m+1][iind], (int)agev[m][iind]); */
-       } /* end i */
+                                                          if(s[m][iind]==-1)
+                                                                  printf(" num=%ld m=%d, iind=%d s1=%d s2=%d agev at m=%d agebegin=%.2f ageend=%.2f, agemed=%d\n", num[iind], m, iind,s[m][iind],s[m+1][iind], (int)agev[m][iind],agebegin, ageend, (int)((agebegin+ageend)/2.));
-       /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
+                                                          freq[s[m][iind]][s[m+1][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind]; /* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
-       pstamp(ficresp);
+                                                          /* freq[s[m][iind]][s[m+1][iind]][(int)((agebegin+ageend)/2.)] += weight[iind]; */
-       if  (cptcovn>0) {
+                                                          freq[s[m][iind]][s[m+1][iind]][iagemax+3] += weight[iind]; /* Total is in iagemax+3 *//* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
-         fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
+                                                  }
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+                                          }
-         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
+                                          if ((agev[m][iind]>1) && (agev[m][iind]< (iagemax+3)) && (anint[m][iind]!=9999) && (mint[m][iind]!=99)) {
-         fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable ");
+                                                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+                                                  k2cpt++;
-         fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n#");
+                                                  /* printf("iind=%ld dateintmean = %lf dateintsum=%lf k2cpt=%lf k2=%lf\n",iind, dateintsum/k2cpt, dateintsum,k2cpt, k2); */
-       }
+                                          }
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                                          /*}*/
-         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
+                                  } /* end m */
-       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
+                          } /* end bool */
+                  } /* end iind = 1 to imx */
-       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
+        /* prop[s][age] is feeded for any initial and valid live state as well as
-         if(i==iagemax+3){
+                                         freq[s1][s2][age] at single age of beginning the transition, for a combination j1 */
-           fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
-         }else{
-           if(first==1){
+                  /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
-             first=0;
+                  pstamp(ficresp);
-             printf("See log file for details...\n");
+                  if  (cptcovn>0) {
-           }
+                          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
-           fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
+                          fprintf(ficresphtm, "\n<br/><br/><h3>********** Variable ");
-         }
+                          fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "\n<br/><br/><h3>********** Variable ");
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++){
-           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
+                                  fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         }
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                          }
-           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
+                          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
-             pos += freq[jk][m][i];
+                          fprintf(ficresphtm, "**********</h3>\n");
-           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
+                          fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "**********</h3>\n");
-             if(first==1){
+                          fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable ");
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
+                          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-             }
+                          fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n");
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
+                  }
-           }else{
+                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"<table style=\"text-align:center; border: 1px solid\">");
-             if(first==1)
+                  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+                          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+                          fprintf(ficresphtm, "<th>Age</th><th>Prev(%d)</th><th>N(%d)</th><th>N</th>",i,i);
-           }
+                  }
-         }
+                  fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
+                  fprintf(ficresphtm, "\n");
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+                  /* Header of frequency table by age */
-             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
+                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<table style=\"text-align:center; border: 1px solid\">");
-         }
+                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<th>Age</th> ");
-         for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                  for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++){
-           pos += pp[jk];
+                          for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++){
-           posprop += prop[jk][i];
+                                  if(jk!=0 && m!=0)
-         }
+                                          fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<th>%d%d</th> ",jk,m);
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                          }
-           if(pos>=1.e-5){
+                  }
-             if(first==1)
+                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "\n");
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+                  /* For each age */
-           }else{
+                  for(iage=iagemin; iage <= iagemax+3; iage++){
-             if(first==1)
+                          fprintf(ficresphtm,"<tr>");
-               printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+                          if(iage==iagemax+1){
-             fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+                                  fprintf(ficlog,"1");
-           }
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>0</th> ");
-           if( i <= iagemax){
+                          }else if(iage==iagemax+2){
-             if(pos>=1.e-5){
+                                  fprintf(ficlog,"0");
-               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>Unknown</th> ");
-               /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
+                          }else if(iage==iagemax+3){
-               /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
+                                  fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
-             }
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>Total</th> ");
-             else
+                          }else{
-               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
+                                  if(first==1){
-           }
+                                          first=0;
-         }
+                                          printf("See log file for details...\n");
+                                  }
-         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>%d</th> ",iage);
-           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+                                  fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", iage);
-             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
+                          }
-             if(first==1)
+                          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-               printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
+                                  for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
-               fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
+                                          pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][iage];
-             }
+                          }
-         if(i <= iagemax)
+                          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
+                                  for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
-         if(first==1)
+                                          pos += freq[jk][m][iage];
-           printf("Others in log...\n");
+                                  if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                                          if(first==1){
-       }
+                                                  printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
-       /*}*/
+                                          }
-   }
+                                          fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
-   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;
+                                  }else{
+                                          if(first==1)
-   fclose(ficresp);
+                                                  printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-   free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
+                                          fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
+                                  }
-   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
+                          }
-   /* End of Freq */
- }
+                          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                                  /* posprop[jk]=0; */
+                                  for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)/* Summing on all ages */
+                                          pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][iage];
+                          }      /* pp[jk] is the total number of transitions starting from state jk and any ending status until this age */
+                          for(jk=1,pos=0, pospropta=0.; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                                  pos += pp[jk]; /* pos is the total number of transitions until this age */
+                                  posprop[jk] += prop[jk][iage]; /* prop is the number of transitions from a live state
+                                                                                                                                                                          from jk at age iage prop[s[m][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind] */
+                                  pospropta += prop[jk][iage]; /* prop is the number of transitions from a live state
+                                                                                                                                                                          from jk at age iage prop[s[m][iind]][(int)agev[m][iind]] += weight[iind] */
+                          }
+                          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                                  if(pos>=1.e-5){
+                                          if(first==1)
+                                                  printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+                                          fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+                                  }else{
+                                          if(first==1)
+                                                  printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+                                          fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+                                  }
+                                  if( iage <= iagemax){
+                                          if(pos>=1.e-5){
+                                                  fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",iage,prop[jk][iage]/pospropta, prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+                                                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>%.5f</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",iage,prop[jk][iage]/pospropta, prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+                                                  /*probs[iage][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
+                                                  /*printf("\niage=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",iage,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[iage][jk][j1]);*/
+                                          }
+                                          else{
+                                                  fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",iage,prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+                                                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>NaNq</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",iage, prop[jk][iage],pospropta);
+                                          }
+                                  }
+                                  pospropt[jk] +=posprop[jk];
+                          } /* end loop jk */
+                          /* pospropt=0.; */
+                          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++){
+                                  for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++){
+                                          if(freq[jk][m][iage] !=0 ) { /* minimizing output */
+                                                  if(first==1){
+                                                          printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iage]);
+                                                  }
+                                                  fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][iage]);
+                                          }
+                                          if(jk!=0 && m!=0)
+                                                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<td>%.0f</td> ",freq[jk][m][iage]);
+                                  }
+                          } /* end loop jk */
+                          posproptt=0.;
+                          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate; jk++){
+                                  posproptt += pospropt[jk];
+                          }
+                          fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"</tr>\n ");
+                          if(iage <= iagemax){
+                                  fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"</tr>\n");
+                          }
+                          if(first==1)
+                                  printf("Others in log...\n");
+                          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                  } /* end loop age iage */
+                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"<tr><th>Tot</th>");
+                  for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+                          if(posproptt < 1.e-5){
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"<td>Nanq</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",pospropt[jk],posproptt);
+                          }else{
+                                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"<td>%.5f</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",pospropt[jk]/posproptt,pospropt[jk],posproptt);
+                          }
+                  }
+                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"</tr>\n");
+                  fprintf(ficresphtm,"</table>\n");
+                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"</table>\n");
+                  if(posproptt < 1.e-5){
+                          fprintf(ficresphtm,"\n <p><b> This combination (%d) is not valid and no result will be produced</b></p>",j1);
+                          fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"\n <p><b> This combination (%d) is not valid and no result will be produced</b></p>",j1);
+                          fprintf(ficres,"\n  This combination (%d) is not valid and no result will be produced\n\n",j1);
+                          invalidvarcomb[j1]=1;
+                  }else{
+                          fprintf(ficresphtm,"\n <p> This combination (%d) is valid and result will be produced.</p>",j1);
+                          invalidvarcomb[j1]=0;
+                  }
+                  fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"</table>\n");
+          } /* end selected combination of covariate j1 */
+          dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;
+          fclose(ficresp);
+          fclose(ficresphtm);
+          fclose(ficresphtmfr);
+          free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin-AGEMARGE, iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
+          free_vector(pospropt,1,nlstate);
+          free_vector(posprop,1,nlstate);
+          free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin-AGEMARGE, iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
+          free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
+          /* End of Freq */
+  }
  /************ Prevalence ********************/
- void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
+  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
- {
+  {
-   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
+    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
-      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
+       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
-      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
+       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
-   */
+    */
-   int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
+    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
+    int mi; /* Effective wave */
-   double **prop;
+    int iage;
-   double posprop;
+    double agebegin, ageend;
-   double  y2; /* in fractional years */
-   int iagemin, iagemax;
+    double **prop;
-   int first; /** to stop verbosity which is redirected to log file */
+    double posprop;
+    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
-   iagemin= (int) agemin;
+    int iagemin, iagemax;
-   iagemax= (int) agemax;
+    int first; /** to stop verbosity which is redirected to log file */
-   /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
-   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+    iagemin= (int) agemin;
-   /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
+    iagemax= (int) agemax;
-   j1=0;
+    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
+    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
-   /*j=cptcoveff;*/
+    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
-   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+    j1=0;
-   first=1;
+    /*j=cptcoveff;*/
-   for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){
+    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-     /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
-       j1++;*/
+    first=1;
+    for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){ /* For each combination of covariate */
-       for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
+      for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
-         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+        for(iage=iagemin-AGEMARGE; iage <= iagemax+3+AGEMARGE; iage++)
-           prop[i][m]=0.0;
+          prop[i][iage]=0.0;
-       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
+      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
-         bool=1;
+        bool=1;
-         if  (cptcovn>0) {
+        if  (cptcovn>0) {  /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
-           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
+          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) /* For each covariate, look at the value for individual i and checks if it is equal to the corresponding value of this covariate according to current combination j1*/
-             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)])
+            if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)])
-               bool=0;
+              bool=0;
-         }
+        }
-         if (bool==1) {
+        if (bool==1) { /* For this combination of covariates values, this individual fits */
-           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
+          /* for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/\* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*\/ */
-             y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
+          for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
-             if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
+            m=mw[mi][i];
-               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
+            agebegin=agev[m][i]; /* Age at beginning of wave before transition*/
-               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
+            /* ageend=agev[m][i]+(dh[m][i])*stepm/YEARM; /\* Age at end of wave and transition *\/ */
-               if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m);
+            if(m >=firstpass && m <=lastpass){
-               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) {
+              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
-                 /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
+              if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
-                 prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
-                 prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
+                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
-               }
+                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin-AGEMARGE || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3+AGEMARGE){
-             }
+                  printf("Error on individual # %d agev[m][i]=%f <%d-%d or > %d+3+%d  m=%d; either change agemin or agemax or fix data\n",i, agev[m][i],iagemin,AGEMARGE, iagemax,AGEMARGE,m);
-           } /* end selection of waves */
+                  exit(1);
-         }
+                }
-       }
+                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) {
-       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
+                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
-         for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) {
+                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];/* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
-           posprop += prop[jk][i];
+                  prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
-         }
+                } /* end valid statuses */
+              } /* end selection of dates */
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+            } /* end selection of waves */
-           if( i <=  iagemax){
+          } /* end effective waves */
-             if(posprop>=1.e-5){
+        } /* end bool */
-               probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
+      }
-             } else{
+      for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
-               if(first==1){
+        for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) {
-                 first=0;
+          posprop += prop[jk][i];
-                 printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
+        }
-               }
-             }
+        for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-           }
+          if( i <=  iagemax){
-         }/* end jk */
+            if(posprop>=1.e-5){
-       }/* end i */
+              probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
-     /*} *//* end i1 */
+            } else{
-   } /* end j1 */
+              if(first==1){
+                first=0;
-   /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
+                printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
-   /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
+              }
-   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
+            }
- }  /* End of prevalence */
+          }
+        }/* end jk */
+      }/* end i */
+      /*} *//* end i1 */
+    } /* end j1 */
+    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
+    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
+    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
+  }  /* End of prevalence */
  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
- Line 3239  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 4134  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    int i, mi, m;
    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
-   int first;
+   int first, firstwo, firsthree, firstfour;
    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
    double sum=0.;
    first=0;
+   firstwo=0;
+   firsthree=0;
+   firstfour=0;
    jmin=100000;
    jmax=-1;
    jmean=0.;
-   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){  /* For simple cases and if state is death */
      mi=0;
      m=firstpass;
-     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
+     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){  /* a live state */
-       if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
+       if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){ /* Since 0.98r4 if status=-2 vital status is really unknown, wave should be skipped */
-         mw[++mi][i]=m;
+                                 mw[++mi][i]=m;
-       if(m >=lastpass)
+       }
-         break;
+       if(m >=lastpass){
+                                 if(s[m][i]==-1 && (int) andc[i] == 9999 && (int)anint[m][i] != 9999){
+                                         if(firsthree == 0){
+                                                 printf("Information! Unknown health status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m);
+                                                 firsthree=1;
+                                         }
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"Information! Unknown status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m);
+                                         mw[++mi][i]=m;
+                                 }
+                                 if(s[m][i]==-2){ /* Vital status is really unknown */
+                                         nbwarn++;
+                                         if((int)anint[m][i] == 9999){  /*  Has the vital status really been verified? */
+                                                 printf("Warning! Vital status for individual %ld (line=%d) at last wave %d interviewed at date %d/%d is unknown %d. Please, check if the vital status and the date of death %d/%d are really unknown. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], s[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], i, m);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Vital status for individual %ld (line=%d) at last wave %d interviewed at date %d/%d is unknown %d. Please, check if the vital status and the date of death %d/%d are really unknown. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], s[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], i, m);
+                                         }
+                                         break;
+                                 }
+                                 break;
+       }
        else
-         m++;
+                                 m++;
      }/* end while */
-     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
+     /* After last pass */
+     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){  /* In a death state */
        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
-          /* Only death is a correct wave */
+                         /* Only death is a correct wave */
        mw[mi][i]=m;
+     }else if ((int) andc[i] != 9999) { /* Status is either death or negative. A death occured after lastpass, we can't take it into account because of potential bias */
+       /* m++; */
+       /* mi++; */
+       /* s[m][i]=nlstate+1;  /\* We are setting the status to the last of non live state *\/ */
+       /* mw[mi][i]=m; */
+       nberr++;
+       if ((int)anint[m][i]!= 9999) { /* date of last interview is known */
+                                 if(firstwo==0){
+                                         printf("Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d after last wave %d interviewed at %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+                                         firstwo=1;
+                                 }
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d after last wave %d interviewed at %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+       }else{ /* end date of interview is known */
+                                 /* death is known but not confirmed by death status at any wave */
+                                 if(firstfour==0){
+                                         printf("Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d but not confirmed by any death status for any wave, including last wave %d at unknown date %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+                                         firstfour=1;
+                                 }
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d but not confirmed by any death status for any wave, including last wave %d at unknown date %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+       }
      }
      wav[i]=mi;
      if(mi==0){
        nbwarn++;
        if(first==0){
-         printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
+                                 printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
-         first=1;
+                                 first=1;
        }
        if(first==1){
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
        }
      } /* end mi==0 */
    } /* End individuals */
+   /* wav and mw are no more changed */
    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
        if (stepm <=0)
-         dh[mi][i]=1;
+                                 dh[mi][i]=1;
        else{
-         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
+                                 if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
-           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
+                                         if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
-             j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);
+                                                 j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);
-             if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
+                                                 if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
-             else if(j<0){
+                                                 else if(j<0){
-               nberr++;
+                                                         nberr++;
-               printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
+                                                         printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-               j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
+                                                         j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
-               printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
+                                                         printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
-               fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
+                                                         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-               fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
+                                                         fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
-             }
+                                                 }
-             k=k+1;
+                                                 k=k+1;
-             if (j >= jmax){
+                                                 if (j >= jmax){
-               jmax=j;
+                                                         jmax=j;
-               ijmax=i;
+                                                         ijmax=i;
-             }
+                                                 }
-             if (j <= jmin){
+                                                 if (j <= jmin){
-               jmin=j;
+                                                         jmin=j;
-               ijmin=i;
+                                                         ijmin=i;
-             }
+                                                 }
-             sum=sum+j;
+                                                 sum=sum+j;
-             /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
+                                                 /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
-             /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
+                                                 /*        printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
-           }
+                                         }
-         }
+                                 }
-         else{
+                                 else{
-           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
+                                         j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
  /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
-           k=k+1;
+                                         k=k+1;
-           if (j >= jmax) {
+                                         if (j >= jmax) {
-             jmax=j;
+                                                 jmax=j;
-             ijmax=i;
+                                                 ijmax=i;
-           }
+                                         }
-           else if (j <= jmin){
+                                         else if (j <= jmin){
-             jmin=j;
+                                                 jmin=j;
-             ijmin=i;
+                                                 ijmin=i;
-           }
+                                         }
-           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
+                                         /*          if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
-           /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
+                                         /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
-           if(j<0){
+                                         if(j<0){
-             nberr++;
+                                                 nberr++;
-             printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
+                                                 printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-             fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
-           }
+                                         }
-           sum=sum+j;
+                                         sum=sum+j;
-         }
+                                 }
-         jk= j/stepm;
+                                 jk= j/stepm;
-         jl= j -jk*stepm;
+                                 jl= j -jk*stepm;
-         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
+                                 ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
-         if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
+                                 if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
-           if(jl==0){
+                                         if(jl==0){
-             dh[mi][i]=jk;
+                                                 dh[mi][i]=jk;
-             bh[mi][i]=0;
+                                                 bh[mi][i]=0;
-           }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
+                                         }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
-                   * to avoid the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
+                                                                         * to avoid the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
-             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
+                                                 dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
-             bh[mi][i]=ju;
+                                                 bh[mi][i]=ju;
-           }
+                                         }
-         }else{
+                                 }else{
-           if(jl <= -ju){
+                                         if(jl <= -ju){
-             dh[mi][i]=jk;
+                                                 dh[mi][i]=jk;
-             bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
+                                                 bh[mi][i]=jl;   /* bias is positive if real duration
-                                  * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
+                                                                                                          * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
-                                  */
+                                                                                                          */
-           }
+                                         }
-           else{
+                                         else{
-             dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
+                                                 dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
-             bh[mi][i]=ju;
+                                                 bh[mi][i]=ju;
-           }
+                                         }
-           if(dh[mi][i]==0){
+                                         if(dh[mi][i]==0){
-             dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
+                                                 dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
-             bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
+                                                 bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
-             /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
+                                                 /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
-           }
+                                         }
-         } /* end if mle */
+                                 } /* end if mle */
        }
      } /* end wave */
    }
- Line 3368  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 4307  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
   }
  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
- void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx, int *Ndum)
+  void tricode(int *cptcov, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx, int *Ndum)
  {
    /**< Uses cptcovn+2*cptcovprod as the number of covariates */
    /*      Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  find 'n' in Vn and stores in Tvar. If model=V2+V1 Tvar[1]=2 and Tvar[2]=1
     * Boring subroutine which should only output nbcode[Tvar[j]][k]
     * Tvar[5] in V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is 2 (V2)
-    * nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]=
+    * nbcode[Tvar[5]][1]= nbcode[2][1]=0, nbcode[2][2]=1 (usually);
    */
    int ij=1, k=0, j=0, i=0, maxncov=NCOVMAX;
- Line 3383  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
+ Line 4322  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
    int modmincovj=0; /* Modality min of covariates j */
-   cptcoveff=0;
+   /* cptcoveff=0;  */
+         *cptcov=0;
    for (k=1; k <= maxncov; k++) ncodemax[k]=0; /* Horrible constant again replaced by NCOVMAX */
- Line 3391  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
+ Line 4331  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovs); j++) { /* From model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4 keeps V1 + V3 = 2 only */
      for (k=-1; k < maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Loop on individuals: reads the data file to get the maximum value of the
-                                modality of this covariate Vj*/
+                                                                                                                                 modality of this covariate Vj*/
        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij=0 or 1 or -1. Value of the covariate Tvar[j] for individual i
-                                     * If product of Vn*Vm, still boolean *:
+                                                                                                                                                 * If product of Vn*Vm, still boolean *:
-                                     * If it was coded 1, 2, 3, 4 should be splitted into 3 boolean variables
+                                                                                                                                                 * If it was coded 1, 2, 3, 4 should be splitted into 3 boolean variables
-                                     * 1 => 0 0 0, 2 => 0 0 1, 3 => 0 1 1, 4=1 0 0   */
+                                                                                                                                                 * 1 => 0 0 0, 2 => 0 0 1, 3 => 0 1 1, 4=1 0 0   */
        /* Finds for covariate j, n=Tvar[j] of Vn . ij is the
                                        modality of the nth covariate of individual i. */
        if (ij > modmaxcovj)
          modmaxcovj=ij;
        else if (ij < modmincovj)
-         modmincovj=ij;
+                                 modmincovj=ij;
        if ((ij < -1) && (ij > NCOVMAX)){
-         printf( "Error: minimal is less than -1 or maximal is bigger than %d. Exiting. \n", NCOVMAX );
+                                 printf( "Error: minimal is less than -1 or maximal is bigger than %d. Exiting. \n", NCOVMAX );
-         exit(1);
+                                 exit(1);
        }else
        Ndum[ij]++; /*counts and stores the occurence of this modality 0, 1, -1*/
        /*  If coded 1, 2, 3 , counts the number of 1 Ndum[1], number of 2, Ndum[2], etc */
- Line 3422  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
+ Line 4362  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
        printf("Frequencies of covariates %d ie V%d with value %d: %d\n", j, Tvar[j], k, Ndum[k]);
        fprintf(ficlog, "Frequencies of covariates %d ie V%d with value %d: %d\n", j, Tvar[j], k, Ndum[k]);
        if( Ndum[k] != 0 ){ /* Counts if nobody answered modality k ie empty modality, we skip it and reorder */
-         if( k != -1){
+                                 if( k != -1){
-           ncodemax[j]++;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
+                                         ncodemax[j]++;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
-                              covariate for which somebody answered excluding
+                                                                                                                  covariate for which somebody answered excluding
-                              undefined. Usually 2: 0 and 1. */
+                                                                                                                  undefined. Usually 2: 0 and 1. */
-         }
+                                 }
-         ncodemaxwundef[j]++; /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
+                                 ncodemaxwundef[j]++; /* ncodemax[j]= Number of modalities of the j th
-                              covariate for which somebody answered including
+                                                                                                                                 covariate for which somebody answered including
-                              undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
+                                                                                                                                 undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
        }
        /* In fact  ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables only) but it could be more for
-          historical reasons: 3 if coded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and Ndum[2]=0 */
+                                  historical reasons: 3 if coded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and Ndum[2]=0 */
      } /* Ndum[-1] number of undefined modalities */
      /* j is a covariate, n=Tvar[j] of Vn; Fills nbcode */
      /* For covariate j, modalities could be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
         If Ndum[1]=0, Ndum[2]=0, Ndum[3]= 635, Ndum[4]=0, Ndum[5]=0, Ndum[6]=27, Ndum[7]=125;
- Line 3451  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
+ Line 4391  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
      ij=0; /* ij is similar to i but can jump over null modalities */
      for (i=modmincovj; i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i= 1 to 2 for dichotomous, or from 1 to 3 or from -1 or 0 to 1 currently*/
          if (Ndum[i] == 0) { /* If nobody responded to this modality k */
-           break;
+                                 break;
-         }
+                         }
          ij++;
          nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=i;  /* stores the original value of modality i in an array nbcode, ij modality from 1 to last non-nul modality.*/
          cptcode = ij; /* New max modality for covar j */
- Line 3473  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
+ Line 4413  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, in
      /*   }  /\* end of loop on modality k *\/ */
    } /* end of loop on model-covariate j. nbcode[Tvarj][1]=0 and nbcode[Tvarj][2]=1 sets the value of covariate j*/
-  for (k=-1; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
+         for (k=-1; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
    for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2-nagesqr; i++) { /* -2, cste and age and eventually age*age */
-    /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
+                 /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
-    ij=Tvar[i]; /* Tvar might be -1 if status was unknown */
+                 ij=Tvar[i]; /* Tvar might be -1 if status was unknown */
-    Ndum[ij]++; /* Might be supersed V1 + V1*age */
+                 Ndum[ij]++; /* Might be supersed V1 + V1*age */
-  }
+         }
-  ij=0;
+         ij=0;
-  for (i=0; i<=  maxncov-1; i++) { /* modmaxcovj is unknown here. Only Ndum[2(V2),3(age*V3), 5(V3*V2) 6(V1*V4) */
+         for (i=0; i<=  maxncov-1; i++) { /* modmaxcovj is unknown here. Only Ndum[2(V2),3(age*V3), 5(V3*V2) 6(V1*V4) */
-    /*printf("Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
+                 /*printf("Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
-    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
+                 if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
-      ij++;
+                         ij++;
-      /*printf("diff Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
+                         /*printf("diff Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
-      Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing (unclear) */
+                         Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing (unclear) */
-    }else{
+                 }else{
-        /* Tvaraff[ij]=0; */
+                         /* Tvaraff[ij]=0; */
-    }
+                 }
-  }
+         }
-  /* ij--; */
+         /* ij--; */
-  cptcoveff=ij; /*Number of total covariates*/
+         /* cptcoveff=ij; /\*Number of total covariates*\/ */
+         *cptcov=ij; /*Number of total covariates*/
  }
- Line 3612  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4553  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
  {
    /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
-    to initial status i, ei. .
+      to initial status i, ei. .
    */
    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
    int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
- Line 3706  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4647  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
      /* If stepm=6 months */
      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
         in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
      /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
         decrease memory allocation */
- Line 3723  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4664  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
        }
        hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
        hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
            for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
- Line 3732  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4673  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
            }
          }
        }
        for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
            gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
- Line 3745  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4686  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-      for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
+     for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
        for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
          varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
-      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
+     printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
-      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
-      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
+     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
- Line 3761  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4702  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
              varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
        }
      }
      /* Computing expectancies */
      hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
          }
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
        eip=0.;
- Line 3786  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4727  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
        fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
      }
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
- Line 3799  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4740  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
            }
        }
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
    }
    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
- Line 3809  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4750  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
    free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
    printf("\n");
    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    free_vector(xm,1,npar);
    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
  }
  /************ Variance ******************/
- void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
+  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
- {
+  {
-   /* Variance of health expectancies */
+    /* Variance of health expectancies */
-   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
+    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
-   /* double **newm;*/
+    /* double **newm;*/
-   /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
+    /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
+    /* int movingaverage(); */
+    double **dnewm,**doldm;
+    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
+    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
+    int k;
+    double *xp;
+    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
+    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
+    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
+    double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
+    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
+    double ***p3mat;
+    double age,agelim, hf;
+    /* double ***mobaverage; */
+    int theta;
+    char digit[4];
+    char digitp[25];
+    char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    if(popbased==1){
+      if(mobilav!=0)
+        strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-MOBILAV_");
+      else strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-NOMOBIL_");
+    }
+    else
+      strcpy(digitp,"-STABLBASED_");
+    /* if (mobilav!=0) { */
+    /*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
+    /*   if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ */
+    /*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
+    /*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
+    /*   } */
+    /* } */
+    strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"PRMORPREV-");
+    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
+    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
+    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
+    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
+    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileresu);
+    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+    }
+    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+    pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
+    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
+      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
+    }
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");
+    /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
+    /*   } */
+    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    pstamp(ficresvij);
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
+    if(popbased==1)
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+    else
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+        fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+    xp=vector(1,npar);
+    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-   int movingaverage();
+    if(estepm < stepm){
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
-   double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
+    }
-   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
+    else  hstepm=estepm;
-   int k;
+    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
-   double *xp;
+    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
-   double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
+       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
-   double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
+       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelim.
-   double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
+       Look at function hpijx to understand why because of memory size limitations,
-   double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
+       we decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
-   double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
+       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
-   double ***p3mat;
+       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
-   double age,agelim, hf;
+       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-   double ***mobaverage;
+       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
-   int theta;
+    */
-   char digit[4];
+    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
-   char digitp[25];
+    agelim = AGESUP;
+    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
+      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
+          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+        }
+        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+        if (popbased==1) {
+          if(mobilav ==0){
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }else{ /* mobilav */
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }
+        }
+        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  /* Returns p3mat[i][j][h] for h=1 to nhstepm */
+        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+            for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+          }
+        }
+        /* Next for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+           as a weighted average of prlim.
+        */
+        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+        }
+        /* end probability of death */
+        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
+          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp, ij);
+        if (popbased==1) {
+          if(mobilav ==0){
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }else{ /* mobilav */
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }
+        }
+        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
+          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+          }
+        }
+        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+           as a weighted average of prlim.
+        */
+        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+            gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+        }
+        /* end probability of death */
+        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
+          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
+          }
+        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
+          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
+        }
+      } /* End theta */
+      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
+      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
+        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
+        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
+      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+        for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
+      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
+        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
+          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
+          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+        }
+      }
+      /* pptj */
+      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+      matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
+      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+        for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+          varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
+      /* end ppptj */
+      /*  x centered again */
+      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+      if (popbased==1) {
+        if(mobilav ==0){
+          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+        }else{ /* mobilav */
+          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+            prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+        }
+      }
+      /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+         computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+         as a weighted average of prlim.
+      */
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
+          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+      }
+      /* end probability of death */
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
+      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
+        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
+        }
+      }
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
+      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+          fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
+        }
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+    } /* End age */
+    free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+    /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240"); */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter svg size 640, 480");
+    /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
+    /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
+     */
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.svg\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";replot;set out;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
-   char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+    free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+    free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    /* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
+    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
+    fflush(ficgp);
+    fflush(fichtm);
+  }  /* end varevsij */
-   if(popbased==1){
+ /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
-     if(mobilav!=0)
+  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[])
-       strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-MOBILAV_");
+ {
-     else strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-NOMOBIL_");
+   /* Variance of prevalence limit  for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
-   }
+   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
-   else
-     strcpy(digitp,"-STABLBASED_");
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-     }
-   }
-   strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"PRMORPREV-");
+   double **dnewm,**doldm;
-   sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
+   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
-   /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
+   double *xp;
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
+   double *gp, *gm;
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
+   double **gradg, **trgradg;
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileresu);
+   double **mgm, **mgp;
-   if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
+   double age,agelim;
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+   int theta;
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
-   }
+   pstamp(ficresvpl);
-   printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
+   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
-   pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
-   for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
-   }
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");
- /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
- /*   } */
-   varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   pstamp(ficresvij);
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
-   if(popbased==1)
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-   else
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
-       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
+   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
    xp=vector(1,npar);
    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-   dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
-   doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-   if(estepm < stepm){
+   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
-     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
-   }
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
-   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
-   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
-      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
-      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
-      Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */
-   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
-      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
-      means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
-      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
-   */
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
    agelim = AGESUP;
    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
-     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
+     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
-     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
-     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
-     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+     mgp=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
-     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+     mgm=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     gp=vector(1,nlstate);
+     gm=vector(1,nlstate);
      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
        }
-       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+       if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 )
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+       else
-       if (popbased==1) {
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
-         if(mobilav ==0){
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }else{ /* mobilav */
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }
-       }
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
-             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
-         }
-       }
-       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
-          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
-          as a weighted average of prlim.
-       */
-       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
-           gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-       }
-       /* end probability of death */
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
-         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-       if (popbased==1) {
-         if(mobilav ==0){
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }else{ /* mobilav */
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }
-       }
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
-             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
-         }
-       }
-       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
-          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
-          as a weighted average of prlim.
-       */
-       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
-          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-       }
-       /* end probability of death */
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
-         }
-       for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
-         gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
-       }
-     } /* End theta */
-     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
-     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
-       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-         trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
-     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
-     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
-         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
-     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
-       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
-         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
-         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
-             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
-       }
-     }
-     /* pptj */
-     matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-     matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
-     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
-       for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
-         varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
-     /* end ppptj */
-     /*  x centered again */
-     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
-     prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-     if (popbased==1) {
-       if(mobilav ==0){
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-       }else{ /* mobilav */
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-           prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
-       }
-     }
-     /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
-        computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
-        as a weighted average of prlim.
-     */
-     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-       for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
-         gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-     }
-     /* end probability of death */
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
-     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
-       }
-     }
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
-       }
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
-     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-   } /* End age */
-   free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240"); */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter svg size 640, 480");
-   /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
-   /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
- */
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.svg\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";replot;set out;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
-   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-   fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
-   fflush(ficgp);
-   fflush(fichtm);
- }  /* end varevsij */
- /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
- void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
- {
-   /* Variance of prevalence limit */
-   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
-   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
-   double *xp;
-   double *gp, *gm;
-   double **gradg, **trgradg;
-   double age,agelim;
-   int theta;
-   pstamp(ficresvpl);
-   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
-   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
-   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
-   xp=vector(1,npar);
-   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
-   agelim = AGESUP;
-   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
-     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
-     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
-     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
-     gp=vector(1,nlstate);
-     gm=vector(1,nlstate);
-     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
-         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       }
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
          gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
+         mgp[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
+       }
        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+       if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 )
-       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+       else
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
          gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
+         mgm[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
+       }
        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
+       /* gradg[theta][2]= -gradg[theta][1]; */ /* For testing if nlstate=2 */
      } /* End theta */
      trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
- Line 4186  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 5143  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
          trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\nmgm mgp %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf(" %d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf(" %d %lf %lf",theta,mgm[theta][j],mgp[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\n gradg %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf("%d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf("%d %lf ",theta,gradg[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
+     if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80  ||(int)age== 81){
+     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }else{
      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
- Line 4200  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 5180  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
      free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
      free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgp,1,npar,1,nlstate);
      free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
      free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
    } /* End age */
- Line 4212  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 5194  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
  /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
- {
+  {
-   int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
+    int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
-   int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
+    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
-   int k=0, l;
+    int k=0, l;
-   int first=1, first1, first2;
+    int first=1, first1, first2;
-   double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
+    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+    double **dnewm,**doldm;
-   double *xp;
+    double *xp;
-   double *gp, *gm;
+    double *gp, *gm;
-   double **gradg, **trgradg;
+    double **gradg, **trgradg;
-   double **mu;
+    double **mu;
-   double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
+    double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
-   double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
+    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
-   int theta;
+    int theta;
-   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   double ***varpij;
+    double ***varpij;
-   strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_");
+    strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_");
-   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
-   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
-   }
+    }
-   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_");
+    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_");
-   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
+    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
-   if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
+    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
-   }
+    }
-   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_");
+    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_");
-   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
+    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
-   if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
+    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
-   }
+    }
-   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
-   printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
-   printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+    printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
-   pstamp(ficresprob);
+    pstamp(ficresprob);
-   fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
+    fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
-   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
+    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
-   pstamp(ficresprobcov);
+    pstamp(ficresprobcov);
-   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
+    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
-   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
+    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
-   pstamp(ficresprobcor);
+    pstamp(ficresprobcor);
-   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
+    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
-   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
+    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+      for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
+        fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
-       fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+        fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
-       fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+        fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
-     }
+      }
-  /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
+    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
-   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
-   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
-  */
+    */
-   xp=vector(1,npar);
+    xp=vector(1,npar);
-   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+    dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+    doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-   mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
+    mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
-   varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
+    varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
-   first=1;
+    first=1;
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4> this page is important in order to visualize confidence intervals and especially correlation between disability and recovery, or more generally, way in and way back.</li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4> this page is important in order to visualize confidence intervals and especially correlation between disability and recovery, or more generally, way in and way back.</li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n",optionfilehtmcov, optionfilehtmcov);
+    fprintf(fichtmcov,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n",optionfilehtmcov, optionfilehtmcov);
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated \
+    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated \
  and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
   They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
-   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
+    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
  It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
  would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
  standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
- Line 4299  standard deviations wide on each axis. <
+ Line 5281  standard deviations wide on each axis. <
   and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
  To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
-   cov[1]=1;
+    cov[1]=1;
-   /* tj=cptcoveff; */
+    /* tj=cptcoveff; */
-   tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
+    tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
-   if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+    if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-   j1=0;
+    j1=0;
-   for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){
+    for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){  /* For each valid combination of covariates */
-     /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ */
+      if  (cptcovn>0) {
-     /*j1++;*/
+        fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");
-       if  (cptcovn>0) {
+        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");
+        fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+        fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");
-         fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
+        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");
+        fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
+        fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");
+        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");
+        fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
+        fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable ");
+        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable ");
+        fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+        fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");
+        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");
+        fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+        if(invalidvarcomb[j1]){
-         fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\n#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",j1);
-       }
+          fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h3>Combination (%d) ignored because no cases </h3>\n",j1);
+          continue;
-       gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+        }
-       trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+      }
-       gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-       gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+      trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
+      gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-         cov[2]=age;
+      gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-         if(nagesqr==1)
+      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
-           cov[3]= age*age;
+        cov[2]=age;
-         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+        if(nagesqr==1)
-           cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(j1,k)];
+          cov[3]= age*age;
-           /*cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(j1,Tvar[k])];*//* j1 1 2 3 4
+        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
-                                                          * 1  1 1 1 1
+          cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(j1,k)];
-                                                          * 2  2 1 1 1
+          /*cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(j1,Tvar[k])];*//* j1 1 2 3 4
-                                                          * 3  1 2 1 1
+                                                                     * 1  1 1 1 1
-                                                          */
+                                                                     * 2  2 1 1 1
-           /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
+                                                                     * 3  1 2 1 1
-         }
+                                                                     */
-         /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+          /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
-         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+        }
-         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+        /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
-           cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+          cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-             xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
+        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+          for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+            xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
-           k=0;
+          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
-             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+          k=0;
-               k=k+1;
+          for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
-               gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-             }
+              k=k+1;
-           }
+              gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+            }
-           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+          }
-             xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
+          for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+            xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
-           k=0;
-           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
+          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+          k=0;
-               k=k+1;
+          for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
-               gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-             }
+              k=k+1;
-           }
+              gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+            }
-           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
+          }
-             gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];
-         }
+          for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
+            gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];
-         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+        }
-           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-             trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
-         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
-         pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
-         k=0;
-         for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
-           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-             k=k+1;
-             mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
-           }
-         }
-         for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
-           for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
-             varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
-         /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
-           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
-           printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
-           }*/
-         fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-         fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-         fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
-           fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
-         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
-           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
-           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
-         }
-         i=0;
-         for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
-           for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){
-             i++;
-             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
-             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
-             for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
-               /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
-               fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
-               fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
-             }
-           }
-         }/* end of loop for state */
-       } /* end of loop for age */
-       free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-       free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-       free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-       free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-       /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
-       /*
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
-         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
-         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
-       */
-       /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
-       first1=1;first2=2;
-       for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
-         for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){
-           if(l2==k2) continue;
-           j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
-           for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
-             for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){
-               if(l1==k1) continue;
-               i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
-               if(i<=j) continue;
-               for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
-                 if ((int)age %5==0){
-                   v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
-                   v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
-                   cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
-                   mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
-                   mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
-                   c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
-                   /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
-                   lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
-                   lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
-                   if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
-                     if(first2==1){
-                       first1=0;
-                     printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
-                     }
-                     fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
-                     /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
-                     /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
-                   }
-                   /* Eigen vectors */
+        for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
-                   v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
+          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-                   /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
+            trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
-                   v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
-                   v12=-v21;
+        matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-                   v22=v11;
+        matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
-                   tnalp=v21/v11;
-                   if(first1==1){
+        pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
-                     first1=0;
-                     printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+        k=0;
-                   }
+        for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
-                   fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+          for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-                   /*printf(fignu*/
+            k=k+1;
-                   /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
+            mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
-                   /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
+          }
-                   if(first==1){
+        }
-                     first=0;
+        for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Ellipsoids of confidence\n#\n");
+          for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
+            varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480");
+        /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
+          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
-  :<a href=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\">\
+          printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+          fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+          }*/
+        fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+        fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+        fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+        for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
+          fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
+        for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
+          fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+          fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+        }
+        i=0;
+        for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
+          for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){
+            i++;
+            fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
+            fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
+            for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
+              /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
+              fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
+              fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
+            }
+          }
+        }/* end of loop for state */
+      } /* end of loop for age */
+      free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+      free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+      free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+      free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+      /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
+      /*
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
+      */
+      /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
+      first1=1;first2=2;
+      for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
+        for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){
+          if(l2==k2) continue;
+          j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
+          for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
+            for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){
+              if(l1==k1) continue;
+              i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
+              if(i<=j) continue;
+              for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
+                if ((int)age %5==0){
+                  v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+                  v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+                  cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+                  mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
+                  mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
+                  c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
+                  /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
+                  lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+                  lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+                  if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
+                    if(first2==1){
+                      first1=0;
+                      printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
+                    }
+                    fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
+                    /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
+                    /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
+                  }
+                  /* Eigen vectors */
+                  v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
+                  /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
+                  v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
+                  v12=-v21;
+                  v22=v11;
+                  tnalp=v21/v11;
+                  if(first1==1){
+                    first1=0;
+                    printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+                  }
+                  fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+                  /*printf(fignu*/
+                  /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
+                  /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
+                  if(first==1){
+                    first=0;
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Ellipsoids of confidence\n#\n");
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480");
+                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
+  :<a href=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\">                                                                                                                                           \
  %s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
-                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
+                            subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,      \
-                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                            subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",      \
-                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),                                                                         \
-                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
-                   }else{
+                  }else{
-                     first=0;
+                    first=0;
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+                    fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not", \
-                             mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),                                 \
-                             mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
-                   }/* if first */
+                  }/* if first */
-                 } /* age mod 5 */
+                } /* age mod 5 */
-               } /* end loop age */
+              } /* end loop age */
-               fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\";replot;set out;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+              fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\";replot;set out;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-               first=1;
+              first=1;
-             } /*l12 */
+            } /*l12 */
-           } /* k12 */
+          } /* k12 */
-         } /*l1 */
+        } /*l1 */
-       }/* k1 */
+      }/* k1 */
-       /* } */ /* loop covariates */
+    }  /* loop on combination of covariates j1 */
-   }
+    free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-   free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+    free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
-   free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
+    free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-   free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+    free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+    fclose(ficresprob);
-   fclose(ficresprob);
+    fclose(ficresprobcov);
-   fclose(ficresprobcov);
+    fclose(ficresprobcor);
-   fclose(ficresprobcor);
+    fflush(ficgp);
-   fflush(ficgp);
+    fflush(fichtmcov);
-   fflush(fichtmcov);
+  }
- }
  /******************* Printing html file ***********/
  void printinghtml(char fileresu[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                    int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
-                   int popforecast, int estepm ,\
+                   int popforecast, int prevfcast, int backcast, int estepm , \
-                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
+                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, double dateprev1, \
-                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
+                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2, double dateprev2){
    int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
     <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
  </ul>");
-    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n");
-  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<li>- Observed frequency between two states (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> (html file)<br/>\n",
-            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"));
+            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTMFR_",".htm"),subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTMFR_",".htm"));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<li> - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> (html file) ",
+            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTM_",".htm"),subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTM_",".htm"));
+    fprintf(fichtm,",  <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> (text file) <br>\n",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
             stepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\
+  - Estimated back transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
+            stepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
             subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_"));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\
-  - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
+  - Period (stable) back prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+            subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
+  - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, e<sub>i.</sub> (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, e<sub>ij</sub> . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
             estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"));
-    fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    if(prevfcast==1){
-  - Population projections by age and states: \
+      fprintf(fichtm,"\
+  - Prevalence projections by age and states:                            \
     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"));
+    }
+    fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
- fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
+    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-  m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+    jj1=0;
-  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
-  jj1=0;
+      /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
-  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
-    /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
       jj1++;
       if (cptcovn > 0) {
         fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
- Line 4591  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b>
+ Line 5586  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b>
           printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);fflush(stdout);
         }
         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+        if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<h3>Combination (%d) ignored because no cases </h3>\n",k1);
+          printf("\nCombination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+          continue;
+        }
       }
       /* aij, bij */
-      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Logit model, for example: logit(pij)=log(pij/pii)= aij+ bij age + V1 age + etc. as a function of age: <a href=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">%s_%d-1.svg</a><br> \
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Logit model (yours is: 1+age+%s), for example: logit(pij)=log(pij/pii)= aij+ bij age + V1 age + etc. as a function of age: <a href=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">%s_%d-1.svg</a><br> \
- <img src=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">",model,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
       /* Pij */
-      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Pij or conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s_%d-2.svg\">%s_%d-2.svg</a><br> \
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- P<sub>ij</sub> or conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s_%d-2.svg\">%s_%d-2.svg</a><br> \
  <img src=\"%s_%d-2.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
       /* Quasi-incidences */
-      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Iij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- I<sub>ij</sub> or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
-  before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too,\
+  before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too, \
-  incidence (rates) are the limit when h tends to zero of the ratio of the probability hPij \
+  incidence (rates) are the limit when h tends to zero of the ratio of the probability  <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub> \
- divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3.svg\">%s_%d-3.svg</a><br> \
+ divided by h: <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub>/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3.svg\">%s_%d-3.svg</a><br> \
  <img src=\"%s_%d-3.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
       /* Survival functions (period) in state j */
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
- Line 4611  divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3
+ Line 5611  divided by h: hPij/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3
       }
       /* State specific survival functions (period) */
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
-        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions from state %d in any different live states and total.\
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions from state %d in each live state and total.\
-  Or probability to survive in various states (1 to %d) being in state %d at different ages.\
+  Or probability to survive in various states (1 to %d) being in state %d at different ages.     \
   <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, nlstate, cpt, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1);
       }
       /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
-        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
  <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1);
       }
+      if(backcast==1){
+        /* Period (stable) back prevalence in each health state */
+        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Convergence to period (stable) back prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1);
+        }
+      }
+      if(prevfcast==1){
+        /* Projection of prevalence up to period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
+        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f) up to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", dateprev1, dateprev2, cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,jj1);
+        }
+      }
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) (or area under each survival functions): <a href=\"%s%d%d.svg\">%s%d%d.svg</a> <br> \
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) (or area under each survival functions): <a href=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">%s_%d%d.svg</a> <br> \
  <img src=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1);
       }
-    /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
+      /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
-  }/* End k1 */
+    }/* End k1 */
-  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
  \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
   - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br> \
-  - 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file.<br> \
+  - 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file if optimization has been done (mle != 0).<br> \
  But because parameters are usually highly correlated (a higher incidence of disability \
  and a higher incidence of recovery can give very close observed transition) it might \
  be very useful to look not only at linear confidence intervals estimated from the \
- Line 4640  variances but at the covariance matrix.
+ Line 5655  variances but at the covariance matrix.
  covariance matrix of the one-step probabilities. \
  See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' below. \n", rfileres,rfileres);
-  fprintf(fichtm," - Standard deviation of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+    fprintf(fichtm," - Standard deviation of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"));
+            subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"));
+            subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"));
+            subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
             estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"CVE_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"CVE_"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
             estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"STDE_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"STDE_"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), e<sup>ij</sup> are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
-          estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"));
+            estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"));
+            estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"));
-  fprintf(fichtm,"\
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
-          subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"));
+            subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"));
  /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
  /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
- Line 4673  See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance
+ Line 5688  See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance
  /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
  /*  else  */
  /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
-  fflush(fichtm);
+    fflush(fichtm);
-  fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
+    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
-  m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-  jj1=0;
+    jj1=0;
-  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
-    /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
+      /* for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */
       jj1++;
       if (cptcovn > 0) {
         fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
           fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtabm(jj1,cpt)]);
         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+        if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+          fprintf(fichtm,"\n<h4>Combination (%d) ignored because no cases </h4>\n",k1);
+          continue;
+        }
       }
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
- prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.svg <br>\
+ prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): <a href=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\"> %s_%d-%d.svg</a>\n <br>\
- <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1);
       }
       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
  health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
  true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
   drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
-  observed and cahotic prevalences: %s_%d.svg<br>\
+  observed and cahotic prevalences:  <a href=\"%s_%d.svg\">%s_%d.svg</a>\n<br>\
- <img src=\"%s_%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1);
-    /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
+      /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
-  }/* End k1 */
+    }/* End k1 */
-  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
-  fflush(fichtm);
+    fflush(fichtm);
  }
  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
- void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+ void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , int prevfcast, int backcast, char pathc[], double p[]){
    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
+   char gplotcondition[132];
    int cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
+   int lv=0, vlv=0, kl=0;
    int ng=0;
    int vpopbased;
+   int ioffset; /* variable offset for columns */
  /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
  /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
  /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
- Line 4720  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
+ Line 5744  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], ch
    /*#ifdef windows */
    fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
-     /*#endif */
+   /*#endif */
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    /* Contribution to likelihood */
    /* Plot the probability implied in the likelihood */
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Contributions to the Likelihood, mle >=1. For mle=4 no interpolation, pure matrix products.\n#\n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Contributions to the Likelihood, mle >=1. For mle=4 no interpolation, pure matrix products.\n#\n");
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Likelihood (-2Log(L))\";");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Likelihood (-2Log(L))\";");
-     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480"); */ /* Too big for svg */
+   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480"); */ /* Too big for svg */
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png size 640, 480");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter pngcairo size 640, 480");
- /* good for mle=4 plot by number of matrix products.
+ /* nice for mle=4 plot by number of matrix products.
     replot  "rrtest1/toto.txt" u 2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with point lc 1 */
  /* replot exp(p1+p2*x)/(1+exp(p1+p2*x)+exp(p3+p4*x)+exp(p5+p6*x)) t "p12(x)"  */
-     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
+   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-dest.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$11):3 t \"All sample, all transitions\" with dots lc variable",subdirf(fileresilk));
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$13):6 t \"All sample, transitions colored by destination\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot  \"%s\" u 2:($3 <= 3 ? -$11 : 1/0):3 t \"First 3 individuals\" with line lc variable", subdirf(fileresilk));
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-ori.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$13):5 t \"All sample, transitions colored by origin\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
-     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\"; replot; set out; # bug gnuplot",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
+   for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-p%dj.png\";set ylabel \"Probability for each individual/wave\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),i);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"unset log;\n# plot weighted, mean weight should have point size of 0.5\n plot  \"%s\"",subdirf(fileresilk));
+     fprintf(ficgp,"  u  2:($5 == %d && $6==%d ? $10 : 1/0):($12/4.):6 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable \\\n",i,1,i,1);
+     for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++) {
+       fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n \"\" u  2:($5 == %d && $6==%d ? $10 : 1/0):($12/4.):6 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable ",i,j,i,j);
+     }
+     fprintf(ficgp,";\nset out; unset ylabel;\n");
+   }
+   /* unset log; plot  "rrtest1_sorted_4/ILK_rrtest1_sorted_4.txt" u  2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with points lc variable */
+   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$11):3 t \"All sample, all transitions\" with dots lc variable",subdirf(fileresilk)); */
+   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot  \"%s\" u 2:($3 <= 3 ? -$11 : 1/0):3 t \"First 3 individuals\" with line lc variable", subdirf(fileresilk)); */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;unset log\n");
+   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\"; replot; set out; # bug gnuplot",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
    strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
    strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
-  /* 1eme*/
+   /* 1eme*/
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'VPL_' files\n");
+   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each live state */
-   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each valid combination of covariate */
-     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
+       /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'VPL_' files ");
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"V_%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate k get corresponding value lv for combination k1 */
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the value of the covariate corresponding to k1 combination */
- set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
- set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]; /* vlv is the value of the covariate lv, 0 or 1 */
+         /* For each combination of covariate k1 (V1=1, V3=0), we printed the current covariate k and its value vlv */
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+         fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+         continue;
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"V_%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
+ set ylabel \"Probability\" \n   \
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n     \
  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
-      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-        else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+         else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-      }
+       }
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
-      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-        else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-      }
+       }
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
-      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-        else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-      }
+       }
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence\" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \n");
+       if(backcast==1){ /* We need to get the corresponding values of the covariates involved in this combination k1 */
+         /* fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Backward stable prevalence\" w l lt 3",subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"),k1-1,k1-1,1+cpt); */
+         fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u 1:((",subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_")); /* Age is in 1 */
+         if(cptcoveff ==0){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d)) t 'Backward prevalence in state %d' with line ",  2+(cpt-1),  cpt );
+         }else{
+           kl=0;
+           for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each combination of covariate  */
+             lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
+             /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+             /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+             /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+             vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+             kl++;
+             /* kl=6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1); /\* 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1)=7, 6+(2-1)(2+1)+1+(1-1)=10 *\/ */
+             /*6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
+             if(k==cptcoveff){
+               fprintf(ficgp,"$%d==%d && $%d==%d)? $%d : 1/0) t 'Backward prevalence in state %d' with line ",kl+1, Tvaraff[k],kl+1+1,nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv], \
++(cpt-1),  cpt );
+             }else{
+               fprintf(ficgp,"$%d==%d && $%d==%d && ",kl+1, Tvaraff[k],kl+1+1,nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]);
+               kl++;
+             }
+           } /* end covariate */
+         } /* end if no covariate */
+       } /* end if backcast */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \n");
      } /* k1 */
    } /* cpt */
    /*2 eme*/
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files ");
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+       lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+       /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+       /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+       /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+       vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+       fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+     }
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+     if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+       fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+       continue;
+     }
      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),k1);
      for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
        if(vpopbased==0)
- Line 4805  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u
+ Line 5901  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u
      } /* vpopbased */
      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;set out \"%s_%d.svg\"; replot; set out; \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),k1); /* Buggy gnuplot */
    } /* k1 */
    /*3eme*/
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
      for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 3d: Life expectancy with EXP_ files:  cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+         fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+         continue;
+       }
        /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
        k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,k1);
- Line 4820  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u
+ Line 5933  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u
          fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
          for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
        */
        for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
          fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
          /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
        }
        fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
      }
    }
+   /* 4eme */
    /* Survival functions (period) from state i in state j by initial state i */
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
      for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
-       k=3;
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n# Survival functions in state j : 'LIJ_' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n# Survival functions in state j : 'lij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+         fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+         continue;
+       }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability to be alive\" \n\
- set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n                                                                                                                                                                                     \
- unset log y\n\
+ unset log y\n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           \
  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+       k=3;
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
-         if(i==1)
+         if(i==1){
            fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
-         else
+         }else{
            fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+         }
          l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
          fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
          for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++)
- Line 4855  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
+ Line 5985  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
      } /* end cpt state*/
    } /* end covariate */
+ /* 5eme */
    /* Survival functions (period) from state i in state j by final state j */
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate if any */
      for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each inital state  */
-       k=3;
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n# Survival functions in state j and all livestates from state i by final state j: 'lij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+                                 lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+                                 /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+                                 /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+                                 /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+                                 vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+                                 fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+                                 continue;
+       }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability to be alive\" \n\
- set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n                                                                                                                                                                                     \
- unset log y\n\
+ unset log y\n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           \
  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+       k=3;
        for (j=1; j<= nlstate ; j ++){ /* Lived in state j */
-         if(j==1)
+                                 if(j==1)
-           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
-         else
+                                 else
-           fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
-         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
+                                 l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
-         fprintf(ficgp," u (($1==%d && (floor($2)%%5 == 0)) ? ($3):1/0):($%d",k1,k+l);
+                                 fprintf(ficgp," u (($1==%d && (floor($2)%%5 == 0)) ? ($3):1/0):($%d",k1,k+l);
-         /* for (i=2; i<= nlstate+ndeath ; i ++) */
+                                 /* for (i=2; i<= nlstate+ndeath ; i ++) */
-         /*   fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+i-1); */
+                                 /*   fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+i-1); */
-         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"l(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,j);
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,") t \"l(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,j);
        } /* nlstate */
        fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
        fprintf(ficgp," u (($1==%d && (floor($2)%%5 == 0)) ? ($3):1/0):(",k1);
        for (j=1; j<= nlstate ; j ++){ /* Lived in state j */
-         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
+                                 l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
-         if(j < nlstate)
+                                 if(j < nlstate)
-           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d +",k+l);
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"$%d +",k+l);
-         else
+                                 else
-           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d) t\"l(%d,.)\" w l",k+l,cpt);
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"$%d) t\"l(%d,.)\" w l",k+l,cpt);
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
      } /* end cpt state*/
    } /* end covariate */
+ /* 6eme */
    /* CV preval stable (period) for each covariate */
-   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate if any */
+   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate combination (1 to m=2**k), if any covariate is present */
      for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
-       k=3;
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+                                 lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+                                 /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+                                 /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+                                 /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+                                 vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+                                 fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+                                 continue;
+       }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
- set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n                                                                                                                                                                              \
- unset log y\n\
+ unset log y\n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    \
  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+       k=3; /* Offset */
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
-         if(i==1)
+                                 if(i==1)
-           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
-         else
+                                 else
-           fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
-         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
+                                 l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
-         fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
+                                 fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
-         for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++)
+                                 for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++)
-           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1);
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1);
-         fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
        } /* nlstate */
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
      } /* end cpt state*/
    } /* end covariate */
+ /* 7eme */
+   if(backcast == 1){
+     /* CV back preval stable (period) for each covariate */
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate combination (1 to m=2**k), if any covariate is present */
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV Back preval stable (period): 'pij' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+                                 for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+                                         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+                                         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+                                         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+                                         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+                                         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+                                 }
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+                                 if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+                                         continue;
+                                 }
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,k1);
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n                                                                                                                                                                                     \
+ unset log y\n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           \
+ plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+                                 k=3; /* Offset */
+                                 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
+                                         if(i==1)
+                                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"));
+                                         else
+                                                 fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+                                         /* l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1; */
+                                         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1)+1;
+                                         /* fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l); /\* a vérifier *\/ */
+                                         /* fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l+(cpt-1)+i-1); /\* a vérifier *\/ */
+                                         fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1)+i-1); /* a vérifier */
+                                         /* for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++) */
+                                         /*      fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); */
+                                         /*      /\* fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); *\/ */
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"bprev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
+                                 } /* nlstate */
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
+       } /* end cpt state*/
+     } /* end covariate */
+   } /* End if backcast */
+   /* 8eme */
+   if(prevfcast==1){
+     /* Projection from cross-sectional to stable (period) for each covariate */
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate combination (1 to m=2**k), if any covariate is present */
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#Projection of prevalence to stable (period): 'PROJ_' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+                                 for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each correspondig covariate value  */
+                                         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
+                                         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+                                         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+                                         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+                                         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+                                         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+                                 }
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+                                 if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+                                         continue;
+                                 }
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"# hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev\n ");
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1);
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Prevalence\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n                                                                                                                                                                                     \
+ unset log y\n                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           \
+ plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+                                 for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 */
+                                         /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+                                         /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+                                         /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+                                         /*#   1       2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+                                         if(i==1){
+                                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"));
+                                         }else{
+                                                 fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+                                         }
+                                         if(cptcoveff ==0){ /* No covariate */
+                                                 ioffset=2; /* Age is in 2 */
+                                                 /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
+                                                 /*#   1       2   3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
+                                                 /*# V1  = 1 yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
+                                                 /*#  1    2        3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
+                                                 fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(", ioffset);
+                                                 if(i==nlstate+1)
+                                                         fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'pw.%d' with line ",                    \
+                                                                                         ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+                                                 else
+                                                         fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'p%d%d' with line ",                    \
+                                                                                         ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,i,cpt );
+                                         }else{ /* more than 2 covariates */
+                                                 if(cptcoveff ==1){
+                                                         ioffset=4; /* Age is in 4 */
+                                                 }else{
+                                                         ioffset=6; /* Age is in 6 */
+                                                         /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+                                                         /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+                                                 }
+                                                 fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
+                                                 kl=0;
+                                                 strcpy(gplotcondition,"(");
+                                                 for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate writing the chain of conditions */
+                                                         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to combination k1 and covariate k */
+                                                         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+                                                         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+                                                         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+                                                         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]; /* Value of the modality of Tvaraff[k] */
+                                                         kl++;
+                                                         sprintf(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition),"$%d==%d && $%d==%d " ,kl,Tvaraff[k], kl+1, nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]);
+                                                         kl++;
+                                                         if(k <cptcoveff && cptcoveff>1)
+                                                                 sprintf(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition)," && ");
+                                                 }
+                                                 strcpy(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition),")");
+                                                 /* kl=6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1); /\* 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1)=7, 6+(2-1)(2+1)+1+(1-1)=10 *\/ */
+                                                 /*6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+                                                 /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+                                                 /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
+                                                 if(i==nlstate+1){
+                                                         fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p.%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \
+                                                                                         ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+                                                 }else{
+                                                         fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p%d%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \
+                                                                                         ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1), ioffset +1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,i,cpt );
+                                                 }
+                                         } /* end if covariate */
+                                 } /* nlstate */
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
+       } /* end cpt state*/
+     } /* end covariate */
+   } /* End if prevfcast */
    /* proba elementaires */
    fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#MLE estimated parameters\n#############\n");
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
      fprintf(ficgp,"# initial state %d\n",i);
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
        if (k != i) {
-         fprintf(ficgp,"#   current state %d\n",k);
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"#   current state %d\n",k);
-         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+                                 for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f; ",jk,p[jk]);
+                                         fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f; ",jk,p[jk]);
-           jk++;
+                                         jk++;
-         }
+                                 }
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
        }
      }
-    }
+   }
    fprintf(ficgp,"##############\n#\n");
    /*goto avoid;*/
    fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#Graphics of probabilities or incidences\n#############\n");
    fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p12/p11)=a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age\n");
- Line 4947  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
+ Line 6249  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
    fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age))\n");
    fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a14+b14*age+c14age*age+d14*V1+e14*V1*age)+...)\n");
    fprintf(ficgp,"#\n");
-    for(ng=1; ng<=3;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is logit, 2nd is probabilities, third is incidences per year*/
+   for(ng=1; ng<=3;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is logit, 2nd is probabilities, third is incidences per year*/
-      fprintf(ficgp,"# ng=%d\n",ng);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"# ng=%d\n",ng);
-      fprintf(ficgp,"#   jk=1 to 2^%d=%d\n",cptcoveff,m);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"#   jk=1 to 2^%d=%d\n",cptcoveff,m);
-      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
+     for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
-        fprintf(ficgp,"#    jk=%d\n",jk);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"#    jk=%d\n",jk);
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jk,ng);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jk,ng);
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480 ");
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480 ");
-        if (ng==1){
+       if (ng==1){
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Value of the logit of the model\"\n"); /* exp(a12+b12*x) could be nice */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Value of the logit of the model\"\n"); /* exp(a12+b12*x) could be nice */
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset log y");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset log y");
-        }else if (ng==2){
+       }else if (ng==2){
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Probability\"\n");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Probability\"\n");
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
-        }else if (ng==3){
+       }else if (ng==3){
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
-        }else
+       }else
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title ");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title ");
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
-        i=1;
+       i=1;
-        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
+       for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
-          k3=i;
+         k3=i;
-          for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
+         for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
-            if (k != k2){
+           if (k != k2){
-              switch( ng) {
+             switch( ng) {
-              case 1:
+             case 1:
-                if(nagesqr==0)
+               if(nagesqr==0)
-                  fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
+                 fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
-                else /* nagesqr =1 */
+               else /* nagesqr =1 */
-                  fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
+                 fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
-                break;
+               break;
-              case 2: /* ng=2 */
+             case 2: /* ng=2 */
-                if(nagesqr==0)
+               if(nagesqr==0)
-                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
+                 fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
-                else /* nagesqr =1 */
+               else /* nagesqr =1 */
-                    fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
+                 fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
-                break;
+               break;
-              case 3:
+             case 3:
-                if(nagesqr==0)
+               if(nagesqr==0)
-                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
+                 fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
-                else /* nagesqr =1 */
+               else /* nagesqr =1 */
-                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
+                 fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
-                break;
+               break;
-              }
+             }
-              ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
+             ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
-              for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) {
+             for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) {
-                /* printf("Tage[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tage[ij], j); */
+               /* printf("Tage[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tage[ij], j); */
-                if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
+               if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                  if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                 if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
+                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
-                    /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */
+                   /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */
-                    ij++;
+                   ij++;
-                  }
+                 }
-                }
+               }
-                else
+               else
-                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
+                 fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
-              }
+             }
-              if(ng != 1){
+           }else{
-                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
+             i=i-ncovmodel;
+             if(ng !=1 ) /* For logit formula of log p11 is more difficult to get */
+               fprintf(ficgp," (1.");
+           }
+           if(ng != 1){
+             fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
-                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
+             for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
-                  if(nagesqr==0)
+               if(nagesqr==0)
-                    fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
+                 fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
-                  else /* nagesqr =1 */
+               else /* nagesqr =1 */
-                    fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr);
+                 fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr);
-                  ij=1;
+               ij=1;
-                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
+               for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
-                    if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                 if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                      if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                   if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                        fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
-                        /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */
+                     /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,Tvar[j-2])]); */
-                        ij++;
+                     ij++;
-                      }
+                   }
-                    }
+                 }
-                    else
+                 else
-                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
+                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
-                  }
+               }
-                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
+               fprintf(ficgp,")");
-                }
+             }
-                fprintf(ficgp,")");
+             fprintf(ficgp,")");
-                if(ng ==2)
+             if(ng ==2)
-                  fprintf(ficgp," t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+               fprintf(ficgp," t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
-                else /* ng= 3 */
+             else /* ng= 3 */
-                  fprintf(ficgp," t \"i%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+               fprintf(ficgp," t \"i%d%d\" ", k2,k);
-              }else{ /* end ng <> 1 */
+           }else{ /* end ng <> 1 */
-                fprintf(ficgp," t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ", k2,k);
+             if( k !=k2) /* logit p11 is hard to draw */
-              }
+               fprintf(ficgp," t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ", k2,k);
-              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
+           }
-              i=i+ncovmodel;
+           if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath) && ng != 1)
-            }
+             fprintf(ficgp,",");
-          } /* end k */
+           if (ng == 1 && k!=k2 && (k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath))
-        } /* end k2 */
+             fprintf(ficgp,",");
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out\n");
+           i=i+ncovmodel;
-      } /* end jk */
+         } /* end k */
-    } /* end ng */
+       } /* end k2 */
-  /* avoid: */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out\n");
-    fflush(ficgp);
+     } /* end jk */
+   } /* end ng */
+   /* avoid: */
+   fflush(ficgp);
  }  /* end gnuplot */
  /*************** Moving average **************/
- int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
+ /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage, double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav, double bageout, double fageout){ */
+  int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage, double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
-   int i, cpt, cptcod;
-   int modcovmax =1;
+    int i, cpt, cptcod;
-   int mobilavrange, mob;
+    int modcovmax =1;
-   double age;
+    int mobilavrange, mob;
+    int iage=0;
-   modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose
-                            a covariate has 2 modalities */
+    double sum=0.;
-   if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
+    double age;
+    double *sumnewp, *sumnewm;
-   if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
+    double *agemingood, *agemaxgood; /* Currently identical for all covariates */
-     if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
-     else mobilavrange=mobilav;
-     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
+    /* modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/\* Max number of modalities. We suppose  */
-       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    /*              a covariate has 2 modalities, should be equal to ncovcombmax  *\/ */
-         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
-           mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+    sumnewp = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
-     /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for
+    sumnewm = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
-        fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
+    agemingood = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
-        we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.
+    agemaxgood = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
-     */
-     for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
+    for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){
-       for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
+      sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
-         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+      sumnewp[cptcod]=0.;
-           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
+      agemingood[cptcod]=0;
-             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+      agemaxgood[cptcod]=0;
-               for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
+    }
-                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
+    if (cptcovn<1) ncovcombmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
-                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
-               }
+    if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
-             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
+      if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
-           }
+      else mobilavrange=mobilav;
-         }
+      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
-       }/* end age */
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-     }/* end mob */
+          for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++)
-   }else return -1;
+            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
-   return 0;
+      /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for
- }/* End movingaverage */
+         fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
+         we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.
+      */
+      for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
+        for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
+          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+            for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+              for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
+                mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
+                mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
+              }
+              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
+            }
+          }
+        }/* end age */
+      }/* end mob */
+    }else
+      return -1;
+    for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncovcombmax;cptcod++){
+      /* for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){ */
+      if(invalidvarcomb[cptcod]){
+        printf("\nCombination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",cptcod);
+        continue;
+      }
+      agemingood[cptcod]=fage-(mob-1)/2;
+      for (age=fage-(mob-1)/2; age>=bage; age--){/* From oldest to youngest, finding the youngest wrong */
+        sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+        }
+        if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
+          agemingood[cptcod]=age;
+        }else{ /* bad */
+          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+          } /* i */
+        } /* end bad */
+      }/* age */
+      sum=0.;
+      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+        sum+=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+      }
+      if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
+        printf("For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one at any descending age!\n",cptcod);
+        /* for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){ */
+        /*   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod]; */
+        /* } /\* i *\/ */
+      } /* end bad */
+      /* else{ /\* We found some ages summing to one, we will smooth the oldest *\/ */
+      /* From youngest, finding the oldest wrong */
+      agemaxgood[cptcod]=bage+(mob-1)/2;
+      for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage; age++){
+        sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+        }
+        if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
+          agemaxgood[cptcod]=age;
+        }else{ /* bad */
+          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+          } /* i */
+        } /* end bad */
+      }/* age */
+      sum=0.;
+      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+        sum+=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+      }
+      if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
+        printf("For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one at any ascending age!\n",cptcod);
+        /* for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){ */
+        /*   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod]; */
+        /* } /\* i *\/ */
+      } /* end bad */
+      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++){
+        printf("%d %d ", cptcod, (int)age);
+        sumnewp[cptcod]=0.;
+        sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          sumnewp[cptcod]+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+          /* printf("%.4f %.4f ",probs[(int)age][i][cptcod], mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]); */
+        }
+        /* printf("%.4f %.4f \n",sumnewp[cptcod], sumnewm[cptcod]); */
+      }
+      /* printf("\n"); */
+      /* } */
+      /* brutal averaging */
+      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+        for (age=1; age<=bage; age++){
+          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+          /* printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]); */
+        }
+        for (age=fage; age<=AGESUP; age++){
+          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+          /* printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]); */
+        }
+      } /* end i status */
+      for (i=nlstate+1; i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++){
+        for (age=1; age<=AGESUP; age++){
+          /*printf("i=%d, age=%d, cptcod=%d\n",i, (int)age, cptcod);*/
+          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=0.;
+        }
+      }
+    }/* end cptcod */
+    free_vector(sumnewm,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(sumnewp,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(agemaxgood,1, ncovcombmax);
+    free_vector(agemingood,1, ncovcombmax);
+    return 0;
+  }/* End movingaverage */
  /************** Forecasting ******************/
  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
- Line 5102  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
+ Line 6526  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
    double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
    double *popeffectif,*popcount;
    double ***p3mat;
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
    char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
    agelim=AGESUP;
-   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
+      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
+      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
+   */
+   /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ */
+   /*          firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); */
    strcpy(fileresf,"F_");
    strcat(fileresf,fileresu);
- Line 5114  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
+ Line 6543  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
      printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
    }
-   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
    if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-     }
-   }
    stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
    if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
- Line 5156  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
+ Line 6578  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
    for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
        k=k+1;
-       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
+       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#****** hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#");
        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficresf," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
        }
-       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficresf," yearproj age");
-       fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
            fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
-         fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
+                                 fprintf(ficresf," wp.%d",j);
        }
        for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
-         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
-         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
+                                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
+                                 for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
-         for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
+                                         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
-           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
+                                         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
-           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+                                         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+                                         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+                                         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
-           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+                                         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+                                                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
-             if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
                  fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-               fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+                                                         fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-             }
+                                                 }
-             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+                                                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-               ppij=0.;
+                                                         ppij=0.;
-               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
+                                                         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
-                 if (mobilav==1)
+                                                                 if (mobilav==1)
-                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
+                                                                         ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
-                 else {
+                                                                 else {
-                   ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
+                                                                         ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
-                 }
+                                                                 }
-                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
+                                                                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
-                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+                                                                         fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
-                 }
+                                                                 }
-               } /* end i */
+                                                         } /* end i */
-               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
+                                                         if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
-                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
+                                                                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
-               }
+                                                         }
-             }/* end j */
+                                                 }/* end j */
-           } /* end h */
+                                         } /* end h */
-           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+                                         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-         } /* end agec */
+                                 } /* end agec */
        } /* end yearp */
      } /* end cptcod */
    } /* end  cptcov */
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
    fclose(ficresf);
+   printf("End of Computing forecasting \n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing forecasting\n");
  }
+ /* /\************** Back Forecasting ******************\/ */
+ /* void prevbackforecast(char fileres[], double anback1, double mback1, double jback1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anback2, double p[], int cptcoveff){ */
+ /*   /\* back1, year, month, day of starting backection  */
+ /*      agemin, agemax range of age */
+ /*      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed */
+ /*      anback2 year of en of backection (same day and month as back1). */
+ /*   *\/ */
+ /*   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1; */
+ /*   double agec; /\* generic age *\/ */
+ /*   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean; */
+ /*   double *popeffectif,*popcount; */
+ /*   double ***p3mat; */
+ /*   /\* double ***mobaverage; *\/ */
+ /*   char fileresfb[FILENAMELENGTH]; */
+ /*   agelim=AGESUP; */
+ /*   /\* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people */
+ /*      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2). */
+ /*      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection. */
+ /*   *\/ */
+ /*   /\* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ *\/ */
+ /*   /\*              firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); *\/ */
+ /*   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
+ /*   strcpy(fileresfb,"FB_");  */
+ /*   strcat(fileresfb,fileresu); */
+ /*   if((ficresfb=fopen(fileresfb,"w"))==NULL) { */
+ /*     printf("Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
+ /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
+ /*   } */
+ /*   printf("Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
+ /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
+ /*   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1; */
+ /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) { *\/ */
+ /*   /\*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
+ /*   /\*   if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ *\/ */
+ /*   /\*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
+ /*   /\*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
+ /*   /\*   } *\/ */
+ /*   /\* } *\/ */
+ /*   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM; */
+ /*   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1; */
+ /*   if(estepm < stepm){ */
+ /*     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm); */
+ /*   } */
+ /*   else  hstepm=estepm;    */
+ /*   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;  */
+ /*   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/\* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and */
+ /*                                fractional in yp1 *\/ */
+ /*   anprojmean=yp; */
+ /*   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp); */
+ /*   mprojmean=yp; */
+ /*   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp); */
+ /*   jprojmean=yp; */
+ /*   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
+ /*   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
+ /*   i1=cptcoveff; */
+ /*   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;} */
+ /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);  */
+ /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"#****** Routine prevbackforecast **\n"); */
+ /*      /\*           if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ *\/ */
+ /*   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+ /*     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){ */
+ /*       k=k+1; */
+ /*       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n#****** hbijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#"); */
+ /*       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) { */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       fprintf(ficresfb," yearbproj age"); */
+ /*       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  */
+ /*                              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)               */
+ /*           fprintf(ficresfb," p%d%d",i,j); */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," p.%d",j); */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       for (yearp=0; yearp>=(anback2-anback1);yearp -=stepsize) {  */
+ /*                              /\* for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {  *\/ */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp);    */
+ /*                              for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){  */
+ /*                                      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);  */
+ /*                                      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;  */
+ /*                                      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
+ /*                                      oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
+ /*                                      hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k);       */
+ /*                                      for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){ */
+ /*                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) { */
+ /*               fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
+ /*               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  */
+ /*                 fprintf(ficresfb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
+ /*                                                      fprintf(ficresfb,"%.f %.f ",anback1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm); */
+ /*                                              }  */
+ /*                                              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+ /*                                                      ppij=0.; */
+ /*                                                      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) { */
+ /*                                                              if (mobilav==1)  */
+ /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod]; */
+ /*                                                              else { */
+ /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod]; */
+ /*                                                              } */
+ /*                                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) { */
+ /*                                                                      fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]); */
+ /*                                                              } */
+ /*                                                      } /\* end i *\/ */
+ /*                                                      if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) { */
+ /*                                                              fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", ppij); */
+ /*                                                      } */
+ /*                                              }/\* end j *\/ */
+ /*                                      } /\* end h *\/ */
+ /*                                      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
+ /*                              } /\* end agec *\/ */
+ /*       } /\* end yearp *\/ */
+ /*     } /\* end cptcod *\/ */
+ /*   } /\* end  cptcov *\/ */
+ /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
+ /*   fclose(ficresfb); */
+ /*   printf("End of Computing Back forecasting \n"); */
+ /*   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing Back forecasting\n"); */
+ /* } */
  /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
  void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
- Line 5221  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6772  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
    double *popeffectif,*popcount;
    double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
    char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
    tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
- Line 5243  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6794  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
+   /* if (mobilav!=0) { */
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+   /*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
-     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+   /*   if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ */
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   /*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   /*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
-     }
+   /*   } */
-   }
+   /* } */
    stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
    if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
- Line 5258  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6809  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    hstepm=1;
    hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
    if (popforecast==1) {
      if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
- Line 5270  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6821  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
      i=1;
      while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      imx=i;
      for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
    }
    for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
-    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
+     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
        k=k+1;
        fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
- Line 5290  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6841  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
        for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {
          fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
          for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
            nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
            nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
            p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
            oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
            hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
              if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
- Line 5313  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6864  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
                }
                if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                  tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
-                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
+                 /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
-                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
+                   if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                }
              }
              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                kk1=0.;
-                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+               for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
+                 kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
-                 }
+               }
-                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
+               tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
              }
-             if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+             if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt))
-               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
+               for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
            }
            free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          }
        }
-   /******/
+       /******/
        for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {
          fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
          for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
- Line 5358  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6910  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
            free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          }
        }
-    }
+     }
    }
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+   /* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
    if (popforecast==1) {
      free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
      free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
- Line 5372  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6924  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
    fclose(ficrespop);
  } /* End of popforecast */
  int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
  {
    if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
- Line 5513  double gompertz(double x[])
+ Line 7065  double gompertz(double x[])
    double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
    int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
-   for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
+   for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++) {
      sump=sump+weight[i];
      /*    sump=sump+1;*/
      num=num+1;
- Line 5638  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7190  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
    /*-------- data file ----------*/
    FILE *fic;
    char dummy[]="                         ";
-   int i=0, j=0, n=0;
+   int i=0, j=0, n=0, iv=0;
+   int lstra;
    int linei, month, year,iout;
    char line[MAXLINE], linetmp[MAXLINE];
    char stra[MAXLINE], strb[MAXLINE];
    char *stratrunc;
-   int lstra;
    if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
-     printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(stdout);
+     printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s with errno='%s'\n", datafile,strerror(errno));fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(ficlog);return 1;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s with errno='%s'\n", datafile,strerror(errno));fflush(ficlog);return 1;
    }
    i=1;
- Line 5670  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7223  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
      }
      trimbb(linetmp,line); /* Trims multiple blanks in line */
      strcpy(line, linetmp);
+     /* Loops on waves */
      for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
+       for (iv=nqtv;iv>=1;iv--){  /* Loop  on time varying quantitative variables */
+                                 cutv(stra, strb, line, ' ');
+                                 if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing value */
+                                         lval=-1;
+                                 }else{
+                                         errno=0;
+                                         /* what_kind_of_number(strb); */
+                                         dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
+                                         /* if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){ */
+                                         /* if(strb != endptr && *endptr == '\0') */
+                                         /*    dval=dlval; */
+                                         /* if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN)) */
+                                         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+                                                 printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be the %d th quantitative value out of %d measured at wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,iv, nqtv, j,maxwav);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be the %d th quantitative value out of %d measured at wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line, iv, nqtv, j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
+                                                 return 1;
+                                         }
+                                         cotqvar[j][iv][i]=dval;
+                                 }
+                                 strcpy(line,stra);
+       }/* end loop ntqv */
+       for (iv=ntv;iv>=1;iv--){  /* Loop  on time varying dummies */
+                                 cutv(stra, strb, line, ' ');
+                                 if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing value */
+                                         lval=-1;
+                                 }else{
+                                         errno=0;
+                                         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+                                         /*      if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
+                                         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+                                                 printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be the %d th dummy covariate out of %d measured at wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,iv, ntv, j,maxwav);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be the %d dummy covariate out of %d measured wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,iv, ntv,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
+                                                 return 1;
+                                         }
+                                 }
+                                 if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
+                                         printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
+  Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
+  for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
+  For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n                                                                 \
+  build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n                                                                                                 \
+         V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n                                                                                                                                                                            \
+  and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
+  output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n                                                                                                                                \
+  Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
+  Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
+  for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
+  For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n                                                                 \
+  build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n                                                                                                 \
+         V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n                                                                                                                                                                            \
+  and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
+  output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n                                \
+  Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
+                                         return 1;
+                                 }
+                                 cotvar[j][iv][i]=(double)(lval);
+                                 strcpy(line,stra);
+       }/* end loop ntv */
+       /* Statuses  at wave */
        cutv(stra, strb, line, ' ');
-       if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
+       if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing value */
-         lval=-1;
+                                 lval=-1;
        }else{
-         errno=0;
+                                 errno=0;
-         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+                                 lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
-       /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
+                                 /*      if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
-         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+                                 if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
-           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
+                                         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
-           return 1;
+                                         return 1;
-         }
+                                 }
        }
        s[j][i]=lval;
+       /* Date of Interview */
        strcpy(line,stra);
        cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
        if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
        }
        else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
-         month=99;
+                                 month=99;
-         year=9999;
+                                 year=9999;
        }else{
-         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
+                                 printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
-         return 1;
+                                 return 1;
        }
        anint[j][i]= (double) year;
        mint[j][i]= (double)month;
        strcpy(line,stra);
-     } /* ENd Waves */
+     } /* End loop on waves */
+     /* Date of death */
      cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
      if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
      }
- Line 5713  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7331  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
        year=9999;
      }else{
        printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
+                         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
-         return 1;
+                         return 1;
      }
      andc[i]=(double) year;
      moisdc[i]=(double) month;
      strcpy(line,stra);
+     /* Date of birth */
      cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
      if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
      }
- Line 5729  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7348  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
      }else{
        printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
-         return 1;
+                         return 1;
      }
      if (year==9999) {
        printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
-         return 1;
+                         return 1;
      }
      annais[i]=(double)(year);
      moisnais[i]=(double)(month);
      strcpy(line,stra);
+     /* Sample weight */
      cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
      errno=0;
      dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
- Line 5752  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7372  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
      }
      weight[i]=dval;
      strcpy(line,stra);
+     for (iv=nqv;iv>=1;iv--){  /* Loop  on fixed quantitative variables */
+       cutv(stra, strb, line, ' ');
+       if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing value */
+                                 lval=-1;
+       }else{
+                                 errno=0;
+                                 /* what_kind_of_number(strb); */
+                                 dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
+                                 /* if(strb != endptr && *endptr == '\0') */
+                                 /*   dval=dlval; */
+                                 /* if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN)) */
+                                 if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+                                         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be the %d th quantitative value (out of %d) constant for all waves. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line, iv, nqv, maxwav);
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be the %d th quantitative value (out of %d) constant for all waves. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line, iv, nqv, maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
+                                         return 1;
+                                 }
+                                 coqvar[iv][i]=dval;
+       }
+       strcpy(line,stra);
+     }/* end loop nqv */
+     /* Covariate values */
      for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
        cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
-       if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
+       if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing covariate value */
-         lval=-1;
+                                 lval=-1;
        }else{
-         errno=0;
+                                 errno=0;
-         lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+                                 lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
-         if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+                                 if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
-           printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
+                                         printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
-           return 1;
+                                         return 1;
-         }
+                                 }
        }
        if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
-         printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
+                                 printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
   Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
   for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
   For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
- Line 5776  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7418  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
   and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
   output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
   Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
   Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
   for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
   For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
- Line 5785  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7427  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
   and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
   output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
   Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
-         return 1;
+                                 return 1;
        }
        covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
        strcpy(line,stra);
- Line 5809  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 7451  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
    return (0);
    /* endread: */
-     printf("Exiting readdata: ");
+         printf("Exiting readdata: ");
-     fclose(fic);
+         fclose(fic);
-     return (1);
+         return (1);
  }
  void removespace(char *str) {
    char *p1 = str, *p2 = str;
    do
- Line 5946  int decodemodel ( char model[], int last
+ Line 7586  int decodemodel ( char model[], int last
          Tvar[k]=0;
        cptcovage=0;
        for(k=1; k<=cptcovt;k++){ /* Loop on total covariates of the model */
-         cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+'
+                                 cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+'
-                                          modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */
+                                                                                                                                                                  modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */
-         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
+                                 if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
-         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
+                                 /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
-         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
+                                 /*scanf("%d",i);*/
-         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
+                                 if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
-           cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc  Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
+                                         cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc  Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
-           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
+                                         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
-             /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
+                                                 /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
-             cptcovprod--;
+                                                 cptcovprod--;
-             cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
+                                                 cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
-             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);  /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2; V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1 */
+                                                 Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);  /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2; V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1 */
-             cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
+                                                 cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
-             Tage[cptcovage]=k;  /* Tvar[4]=3, Tage[1] = 4 or V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1, Tage[1]=2 */
+                                                 Tage[cptcovage]=k;  /* Tvar[4]=3, Tage[1] = 4 or V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1, Tage[1]=2 */
-             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
+                                                 /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
-           } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
+                                         } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
-             cptcovprod--;
+                                                 cptcovprod--;
-             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
+                                                 cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
-             Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
+                                                 Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
-             cptcovage++;
+                                                 cptcovage++;
-             Tage[cptcovage]=k;
+                                                 Tage[cptcovage]=k;
-           } else {  /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2  strb=V3*V2*/
+                                         } else {  /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2  strb=V3*V2*/
-             /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
+                                                 /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
-             cptcovn++;
+                                                 cptcovn++;
-             cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
+                                                 cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
-             cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
+                                                 cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
-             Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
+                                                 Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
-                                    because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
+                                                                                                                                          because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
-                                    ncovcol + k1
+                                                                                                                                          ncovcol + k1
-                                    If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
+                                                                                                                                          If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
-                                    Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
+                                                                                                                                          Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
-             cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
+                                                 cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
-             Tprod[k1]=k;  /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2  */
+                                                 Tprod[k1]=k;  /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2  */
-             Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
+                                                 Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
-             Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
+                                                 Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
-             k2=k2+2;
+                                                 k2=k2+2;
-             Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
+                                                 Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
-             Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];  /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
+                                                 Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];  /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
-             for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
+                                                 for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
-               /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
+                                                         /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
-                  covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
+                                                                  covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
-               covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
+                                                         covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
-             }
+                                                 }
-           } /* End age is not in the model */
+                                         } /* End age is not in the model */
-         } /* End if model includes a product */
+                                 } /* End if model includes a product */
-         else { /* no more sum */
+                                 else { /* no more sum */
-           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
+                                         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
-           /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
+                                         /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
-           cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
+                                         cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
-           ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
+                                         ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
-           cptcovn++;
+                                         cptcovn++;
-           Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
+                                         Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
-         }
+                                 }
-         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */
+                                 strcpy(modelsav,stra);  /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */
-         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
+                                 /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
-           scanf("%d",i);*/
+                                         scanf("%d",i);*/
        } /* end of loop + on total covariates */
      } /* end if strlen(modelsave == 0) age*age might exist */
    } /* end if strlen(model == 0) */
- Line 6025  int decodemodel ( char model[], int last
+ Line 7665  int decodemodel ( char model[], int last
  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
  {
    int i, m;
+   int firstone=0;
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
        if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
          anint[m][i]=9999;
-         s[m][i]=-1;
+         if (s[m][i] != -2) /* Keeping initial status of unknown vital status */
+           s[m][i]=-1;
        }
        if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
          *nberr = *nberr + 1;
-         printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
+         if(firstone == 0){
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
+           firstone=1;
+         printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results can be biased (%d) because status is a death state %d at wave %d. Wave dropped.\nOther similar cases in log file\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr,s[m][i],m);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results can be biased (%d) because status is a death state %d at wave %d. Wave dropped.\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr,s[m][i],m);
          s[m][i]=-1;
        }
        if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
- Line 6050  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
+ Line 7695  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
      agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
      for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
-       if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
+       if(s[m][i] >0  || s[m][i]==-1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){ /* What if s[m][i]=-1 */
          if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
            if(agedc[i]>0){
              if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999){
                agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
-           /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
+               /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
              }else {
                if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                  nbwarn++;
- Line 6065  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
+ Line 7710  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
                }
              }
            } /* agedc > 0 */
-         }
+         } /* end if */
          else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                   years but with the precision of a month */
            agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
- Line 6081  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
+ Line 7726  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
            }
            /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
            /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
-         }
+         } /* en if 9*/
          else { /* =9 */
+           /* printf("Debug num[%d]=%ld s[%d][%d]=%d\n",i,num[i], m,i, s[m][i]); */
            agev[m][i]=1;
            s[m][i]=-1;
          }
        }
-       else /*= 0 Unknown */
+       else if(s[m][i]==0) /*= 0 Unknown */
          agev[m][i]=1;
-     }
+       else{
+         printf("Warning, num[%d]=%ld, s[%d][%d]=%d\n", i, num[i], m, i,s[m][i]);
+         fprintf(ficlog, "Warning, num[%d]=%ld, s[%d][%d]=%d\n", i, num[i], m, i,s[m][i]);
+         agev[m][i]=0;
+       }
+     } /* End for lastpass */
    }
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
      for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
        if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
- Line 6315  void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
+ Line 7966  void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
  #endif
-  }
+ }
-  int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl){
+ int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp){
    /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
    int i, j, k, i1 ;
    /* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */
    double age, agebase, agelim;
+   double tot;
    strcpy(filerespl,"PL_");
    strcat(filerespl,fileresu);
- Line 6332  void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
+ Line 7984  void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
    printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
    pstamp(ficrespl);
-   fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
+   fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence. Precision given by ftolpl=%g \n", ftolpl);
    fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
    fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
-     /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
+   /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
-     agebase=ageminpar;
+   agebase=ageminpar;
-     agelim=agemaxpar;
+   agelim=agemaxpar;
-     i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+   for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
+   /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+     /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */
+     //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+     /* k=k+1; */
+     /* to clean */
+     //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtabm(cptcod,cptcov));
+     fprintf(ficrespl,"#******");
+     printf("#******");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"#******");
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+     }
+     fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
+     printf("******\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+                 if(invalidvarcomb[k]){
+                                                 printf("\nCombination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k);
+                                                 fprintf(ficrespl,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"\nCombination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k);
+                                                 continue;
+                 }
+     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+     }
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"  %d-%d   ",i,i);
+     fprintf(ficrespl,"Total Years_to_converge\n");
+     for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
+       /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
+       prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
+       fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+                                                         fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       tot=0.;
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+                                                         tot +=  prlim[i][i];
+                                                         fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficrespl," %.3f %d\n", tot, *ncvyearp);
+     } /* Age */
+     /* was end of cptcod */
+   } /* cptcov */
+   return 0;
+ }
+ int back_prevalence_limit(double *p, double **bprlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass, int mobilavproj){
+         /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
+         /* Computes the back prevalence limit  for any combination      of covariate values
+    * at any age between ageminpar and agemaxpar
+          */
+   int i, j, k, i1 ;
+   /* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */
+   double age, agebase, agelim;
+   double tot;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
+   /* double      **dnewm, **doldm, **dsavm;  /\* for use *\/ */
+   strcpy(fileresplb,"PLB_");
+   strcat(fileresplb,fileresu);
+   if((ficresplb=fopen(fileresplb,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with period (stable) back prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresplb);return 1;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) back prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresplb);return 1;
+   }
+   printf("Computing period (stable) back prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", fileresplb);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) back prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", fileresplb);
+   pstamp(ficresplb);
+   fprintf(ficresplb,"# Period (stable) back prevalence. Precision given by ftolpl=%g \n", ftolpl);
+   fprintf(ficresplb,"#Age ");
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficresplb,"%d-%d ",i,i);
+   fprintf(ficresplb,"\n");
+   /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
+   agebase=ageminpar;
+   agelim=agemaxpar;
+   i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+         for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
+   /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
      /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */
-       //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+     //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
-         k=k+1;
+     /* k=k+1; */
-         /* to clean */
+     /* to clean */
-         //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtabm(cptcod,cptcov));
+     //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtabm(cptcod,cptcov));
-         fprintf(ficrespl,"#******");
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"#******");
-         printf("#******");
+     printf("#******");
-         fprintf(ficlog,"#******");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"#******");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       fprintf(ficresplb," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         }
+     }
-         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"******\n");
-         printf("******\n");
+     printf("******\n");
-         fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+                 if(invalidvarcomb[k]){
-         fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
+                                                 printf("\nCombination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k);
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+                                                 fprintf(ficresplb,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k);
-           fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"\nCombination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k);
-         }
+                                                 continue;
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
+                 }
-         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"#Age ");
-         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-         /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
+       fprintf(ficresplb,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
+     }
-           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficresplb,"  %d-%d   ",i,i);
-           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"Total Years_to_converge\n");
-             fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
+     for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
-           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+       /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
-         } /* Age */
+       if(mobilavproj > 0){
-         /* was end of cptcod */
+         /* bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage, nlstate, p, age, ageminpar, agemaxpar, oldm, savm, doldm, dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); */
-     } /* cptcov */
+         /* bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); */
-         return 0;
+                                 bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage, nlstate, p, age, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
+       }else if (mobilavproj == 0){
+                                 printf("There is no chance to get back prevalence limit if data aren't non zero and summing to 1, please try a non null mobil_average(=%d) parameter or mobil_average=-1 if you want to try at your own risk.\n",mobilavproj);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"There is no chance to get back prevalence limit if data aren't non zero and summing to 1, please try a non null mobil_average(=%d) parameter or mobil_average=-1 if you want to try at your own risk.\n",mobilavproj);
+                                 exit(1);
+       }else{
+                                 /* bprevalim(bprlim, probs, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); */
+                                 bprevalim(bprlim, probs, nlstate, p, age, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficresplb,"%.0f ",age );
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+                                 fprintf(ficresplb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       tot=0.;
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+                                 tot +=  bprlim[i][i];
+                                 fprintf(ficresplb," %.5f", bprlim[i][i]);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficresplb," %.3f %d\n", tot, *ncvyearp);
+     } /* Age */
+     /* was end of cptcod */
+   } /* cptcov */
+   /* hBijx(p, bage, fage); */
+   /* fclose(ficrespijb); */
+   return 0;
  }
  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){
      /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
- Line 6411  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
+ Line 8176  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
      agelim=AGESUP;
      hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
      hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
      /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
      pstamp(ficrespij);
      fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
      i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
-    /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+                 /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
-    /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
+                 /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
-    /*   k=k+1;  */
+                 /*      k=k+1;  */
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
        fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
- Line 6452  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
+ Line 8217  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
        }
        /*}*/
      }
-         return 0;
+     return 0;
  }
+  int hBijx(double *p, int bage, int fage, double ***prevacurrent){
+     /*------------- h Bij x at various ages ------------*/
+   int stepsize;
+   /* int agelim; */
+         int ageminl;
+   int hstepm;
+   int nhstepm;
+   int h, i, i1, j, k;
+   double agedeb;
+   double ***p3mat;
+   strcpy(filerespijb,"PIJB_");  strcat(filerespijb,fileresu);
+   if((ficrespijb=fopen(filerespijb,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with Pij back resultfile: %s\n", filerespijb); return 1;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij back resultfile: %s\n", filerespijb); return 1;
+   }
+   printf("Computing pij back: result on file '%s' \n", filerespijb);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij back: result on file '%s' \n", filerespijb);
+   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
+   /* agelim=AGESUP; */
+   ageminl=30;
+   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+   /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
+   pstamp(ficrespijb);
+   fprintf(ficrespijb,"#****** h Pij x Back Probability to be in state i at age x-h being in j at x ");
+   i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+   /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
+   /*    k=k+1;  */
+   for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
+     fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n#****** ");
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+     fprintf(ficrespijb,"******\n");
+     if(invalidvarcomb[k]){
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k);
+       continue;
+     }
+     /* for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /\* If stepm=6 months *\/ */
+     for (agedeb=bage; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){ /* If stepm=6 months and estepm=24 (2 years) */
+       /* nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /\* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 *\/ */
+       nhstepm=(int) rint((agedeb-ageminl)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+       nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10, because estepm=24 stepm=6 => hstepm=24/6=4 */
+       /*          nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
+       p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       /* oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
+       /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);   */
+       hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k);
+       /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k); */
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"# Cov Agex agex-h hpijx with i,j=");
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+           fprintf(ficrespijb," %1d-%1d",i,j);
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n");
+       for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+         /*agedebphstep = agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm;*/
+         fprintf(ficrespijb,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb - h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
+         /* fprintf(ficrespijb,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ); */
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+             fprintf(ficrespijb," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+         fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n");
+       }
+       free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n");
+     }
+     /*}*/
+   }
+   return 0;
+  } /*  hBijx */
  /***********************************************/
- Line 6471  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8317  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
  #endif
    int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
    int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;
+   int ncvyear=0; /* Number of years needed for the period prevalence to converge */
    int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;
    int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
    int num_filled;
- Line 6486  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8332  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double agedeb=0.;
    double ageminpar=AGEOVERFLOW,agemin=AGEOVERFLOW, agemaxpar=-AGEOVERFLOW, agemax=-AGEOVERFLOW;
+   double ageminout=-AGEOVERFLOW,agemaxout=AGEOVERFLOW; /* Smaller Age range redefined after movingaverage */
    double fret;
    double dum=0.; /* Dummy variable */
    double ***p3mat;
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
    char line[MAXLINE];
    char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE];
- Line 6506  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8353  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    int *tab;
    int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
+   int backcast=0;
    int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
    int hstepm=0, nhstepm=0;
    int agemortsup;
- Line 6516  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8364  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double bage=0, fage=110., age, agelim=0., agebase=0.;
    double ftolpl=FTOL;
    double **prlim;
+   double **bprlim;
    double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
    double  *p;
    double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
+   double **hess; /* Hessian matrix */
    double ***delti3; /* Scale */
    double *delti; /* Scale */
    double ***eij, ***vareij;
- Line 6526  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8376  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double *epj, vepp;
    double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
+   double jback1=1,mback1=1,anback1=2000,jback2=1,mback2=1,anback2=2000;
    double **ximort;
    char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
    int *dcwave;
- Line 6578  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8430  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    printf("\nIMaCh version %s, %s\n%s",version, copyright, fullversion);
    if(argc <=1){
      printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
-     fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
+     if(!fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin)){
+       printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
+       goto end;
+     }
      i=strlen(pathr);
      if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
        pathr[i-1]='\0';
      i=strlen(pathr);
-     if(pathr[i-1]==' ') /* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
+     if(i >= 1 && pathr[i-1]==' ') {/* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
        pathr[i-1]='\0';
-    for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
+     }
+     i=strlen(pathr);
+     if( i==0 ){
+       printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
+       goto end;
+     }
+     for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
        printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
        while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
        printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
- Line 6718  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8579  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
      }else
        break;
    }
-   if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"ftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n", \
+   if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"ftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nqv=%d ntv=%d nqtv=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n", \
-                         &ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate, &ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt)) !=EOF){
+                         &ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nqv, &ntv, &nqtv, &nlstate, &ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt)) !=EOF){
-     if (num_filled != 8) {
+     if (num_filled != 11) {
-       printf("Not 8\n");
+       printf("Not 11 parameters, for example:ftol=1.e-8 stepm=12 ncovcol=2 nqv=1 ntv=2 nqtv=1  nlstate=2 ndeath=1 maxwav=3 mle=1 weight=1\n");
+       printf("but line=%s\n",line);
      }
-     printf("ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n",ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);
+     printf("ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nqv=%d ntv=%d nqtv=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n",ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nqv, ntv, nqtv, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);
    }
-   ftolpl=6*ftol*1.e5; /* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */
+   /* ftolpl=6*ftol*1.e5; /\* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit *\/ */
+   /*ftolpl=6.e-4; *//* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */
    /* Third parameter line */
    while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
      /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
- Line 6755  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8618  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
        }
      }
      /* printf(" model=1+age%s modeltemp= %s, model=%s\n",model, modeltemp, model);fflush(stdout); */
+     printf("model=1+age+%s\n",model);fflush(stdout);
    }
    /* fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=1+age+%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model); */
    /* numlinepar=numlinepar+3; /\* In general *\/ */
    /* printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model); */
-   if(model[strlen(model)-1]=='.') /* Suppressing leading dot in the model */
+   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nqv=%d ntv=%d nqtv=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol, nqv, ntv, nqtv, nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-     model[strlen(model)-1]='\0';
+   fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nqv=%d ntv=%d nqtv=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol, nqv, ntv, nqtv, nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
    fflush(ficlog);
    /* if(model[0]=='#'|| model[0]== '\0'){ */
    if(model[0]=='#'){
- Line 6791  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8653  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
+   coqvar=matrix(1,nqv,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
+   cotvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,ntv,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
+   cotqvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,ntqv,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
    cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
    /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
       v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
- Line 6820  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8685  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
      fclose (ficlog);
      goto end;
      exit(0);
-   }
+   }  else if(mle==-5) { /* Main Wizard */
-   else if(mle==-3) { /* Main Wizard */
      prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
      printf(" You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
      fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
      param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
      matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-   }
+     hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-   else{
+   }  else{ /* Begin of mle != -1 or -5 */
      /* Read guessed parameters */
      /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
      while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
- Line 6843  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8707  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
      param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
      for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-       j=0;
+                         j=0;
        for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
-         if(jj==i) continue;
+                                 if(jj==i) continue;
-         j++;
+                                 j++;
-         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
+                                 fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
-         if ((i1 != i) || (j1 != jj)){
+                                 if ((i1 != i) || (j1 != jj)){
-           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
+                                         printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
  It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
  run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
-           exit(1);
+                                         exit(1);
-         }
+                                 }
-         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+                                 fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
-         if(mle==1)
+                                 if(mle==1)
-           printf("%1d%1d",i,jj);
+                                         printf("%1d%1d",i,jj);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,jj);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,jj);
-         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+                                 for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-           fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
+                                         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
-           if(mle==1){
+                                         if(mle==1){
-             printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+                                                 printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
-           }
+                                         }
-           else
+                                         else
-             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
-           fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+                                         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
-         }
+                                 }
-         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+                                 fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
-         numlinepar++;
+                                 numlinepar++;
-         if(mle==1)
+                                 if(mle==1)
-           printf("\n");
+                                         printf("\n");
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
        }
      }
      fflush(ficlog);
- Line 6894  run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t
+ Line 8758  run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t
      for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
        for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
-         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
+                                 fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
-         if ( (i1-i) * (j1-j) != 0){
+                                 if ( (i1-i) * (j1-j) != 0){
-           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
+                                         printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
-           exit(1);
+                                         exit(1);
-         }
+                                 }
-         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+                                 printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
-         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+                                 fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
-         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+                                 for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-           fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
+                                         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
-           printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+                                         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
-           fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+                                         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
-           fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+                                         fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
-         }
+                                 }
-         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+                                 fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
-         numlinepar++;
+                                 numlinepar++;
-         printf("\n");
+                                 printf("\n");
-         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
-         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        }
      }
      fflush(ficlog);
      /* Reads covariance matrix */
      delti=delti3[1][1];
      /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
      /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
      while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
        ungetc(c,ficpar);
- Line 6933  run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t
+ Line 8797  run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t
        fputs(line,ficlog);
      }
      ungetc(c,ficpar);
      matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+     hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
      for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
        for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;
      /* Scans npar lines */
      for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
        count=fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d%1d",&i1,&j1,&jk);
        if(count != 3){
-         printf("Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
+                                 printf("Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
  This is probably because your covariance matrix doesn't \n  contain exactly %d lines corresponding to your model line '1+age+%s'.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",optionfile,numlinepar, i1,j1,jk, npar, model);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Error in parameter file %s at line %d after line starting with %1d%1d%1d\n\
  This is probably because your covariance matrix doesn't \n  contain exactly %d lines corresponding to your model line '1+age+%s'.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",optionfile,numlinepar, i1,j1,jk, npar, model);
-         exit(1);
+                                 exit(1);
-       }else
+       }else{
-       if(mle==1)
+                                 if(mle==1)
-         printf("%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
+                                         printf("%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
+                         }
        fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
        fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
        for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
-         fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
+                                 fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
-         if(mle==1){
+                                 if(mle==1){
-           printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+                                         printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
-         }
+                                 }
-         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
-         fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+                                 fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
        }
        fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
        numlinepar++;
        if(mle==1)
-         printf("\n");
+                                 printf("\n");
        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
      }
      /* End of read covariance matrix npar lines */
      for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
        for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
-         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
+                                 matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      if(mle==1)
        printf("\n");
- Line 6991  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8857  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      }
      fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
    }    /* End of mle != -3 */
    /*  Main data
     */
    n= lastobs;
- Line 7000  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8866  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    annais=vector(1,n);
    moisdc=vector(1,n);
    andc=vector(1,n);
+   weight=vector(1,n);
    agedc=vector(1,n);
    cod=ivector(1,n);
-   weight=vector(1,n);
+   for(i=1;i<=n;i++){
-   for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
+                 num[i]=0;
+                 moisnais[i]=0;
+                 annais[i]=0;
+                 moisdc[i]=0;
+                 andc[i]=0;
+                 agedc[i]=0;
+                 cod[i]=0;
+                 weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
+         }
    mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
    anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
    s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n); /* s[i][j] health state for wave i and individual j */
- Line 7048  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8923  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
  /* Main decodemodel */
-   if(decodemodel(model, lastobs) == 1)
+   if(decodemodel(model, lastobs) == 1) /* In order to get Tvar[k] V4+V3+V5 p Tvar[1]@3  = {4, 3, 5}*/
      goto end;
    if((double)(lastobs-imx)/(double)imx > 1.10){
- Line 7073  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8948  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    free_vector(annais,1,n);
    /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
-   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
+   /* free_vector(moisdc,1,n); */
-   free_vector(andc,1,n);
+   /* free_vector(andc,1,n); */
    /* */
    wav=ivector(1,imx);
-   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   /* dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx); */
-   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   /* bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx); */
-   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   /* mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx); */
+   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx); /* We are adding a wave if status is unknown at last wave but death occurs after last wave.*/
+   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
+   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
    /* Concatenates waves */
+   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
+      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
+      mw[mi][i] is the number of (mi=1 to wav[i]) effective wave out of mi of individual i
+      dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
+      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
+   */
    concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
    /* */
-   /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
+   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
+   free_vector(andc,1,n);
+   /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
    nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
    ncodemax[1]=1;
    Ndum =ivector(-1,NCOVMAX);
-   if (ncovmodel-nagesqr > 2 ) /* That is if covariate other than cst, age and age*age */
+         cptcoveff=0;
-     tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
+   if (ncovmodel-nagesqr > 2 ){ /* That is if covariate other than cst, age and age*age */
-   /* Nbcode gives the value of the lth modality of jth covariate, in
+     tricode(&cptcoveff,Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
+         }
+         ncovcombmax=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+         invalidvarcomb=ivector(1, ncovcombmax);
+         for(i=1;i<ncovcombmax;i++)
+                 invalidvarcomb[i]=0;
+   /* Nbcode gives the value of the lth modality (currently 1 to 2) of jth covariate, in
       V2+V1*age, there are 3 covariates Tvar[2]=1 (V1).*/
-   /* 1 to ncodemax[j] is the maximum value of this jth covariate */
+   /* 1 to ncodemax[j] which is the maximum value of this jth covariate */
    /*  codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);*/ /* codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) */
    /*printf(" codtab[1,1],codtab[100,10]=%d,%d\n", codtab[1][1],codtabm(100,10));*/
    /* codtab gives the value 1 or 2 of the hth combination of k covariates (1 or 2).*/
-   h=0;
+   /* nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(h,j)]) : if there are only 2 modalities for a covariate j,
+    * codtabm(h,j) gives its value classified at position h and nbcode gives how it is coded
+    * (currently 0 or 1) in the data.
+    * In a loop on h=1 to 2**k, and a loop on j (=1 to k), we get the value of
+    * corresponding modality (h,j).
+    */
+   h=0;
    /*if (cptcovn > 0) */
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
            /**< codtab(h,k)  k   = codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) + 1
-            * For k=4 covariates, h goes from 1 to 2**k
+            * For k=4 covariates, h goes from 1 to m=2**k
-            * codtabm(h,k)=  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
+            * codtabm(h,k)=  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1)) + 1;
+            * #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
             *     h\k   1     2     3     4
             *______________________________
             *     1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1
- Line 7130  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9029  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
             *    15 i=8 1     2     2     2
             *    16     2     2     2     2
             */
-   /* /\* for(h=1; h <=100 ;h++){  *\/ */
+   /* How to do the opposite? From combination h (=1 to 2**k) how to get the value on the covariates? */
-   /*   /\* printf("h=%2d ", h); *\/ */
+      /* from h=5 and m, we get then number of covariates k=log(m)/log(2)=4
-   /*    /\* for(k=1; k <=10; k++){ *\/ */
+      * and the value of each covariate?
-   /*      /\* printf("k=%d %d ",k,codtabm(h,k)); *\/ */
+      * V1=1, V2=1, V3=2, V4=1 ?
-   /*    /\*   codtab[h][k]=codtabm(h,k); *\/ */
+      * h-1=4 and 4 is 0100 or reverse 0010, and +1 is 1121 ok.
-   /*    /\* } *\/ */
+      * h=6, 6-1=5, 5 is 0101, 1010, 2121, V1=2nd, V2=1st, V3=2nd, V4=1st.
-   /*    /\* printf("\n"); *\/ */
+      * In order to get the real value in the data, we use nbcode
-   /* } */
+      * nbcode[Tvar[3][2nd]]=1 and nbcode[Tvar[4][1]]=0
-   /* for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /\* scans any effective covariate *\/ */
+      * We are keeping this crazy system in order to be able (in the future?)
-   /*   for(i=1; i <=pow(2,cptcoveff-k);i++){ /\* i=1 to 8/1=8; i=1 to 8/2=4; i=1 to 8/8=1 *\/  */
+      * to have more than 2 values (0 or 1) for a covariate.
-   /*     for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){ /\* For each modality of this covariate ncodemax=2*\/ */
+      * #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
-   /*    for(cpt=1; cpt <=pow(2,k-1); cpt++){  /\* cpt=1 to 8/2**(3+1-1 or 3+1-3) =1 or 4 *\/  */
+      * h=6, k=2? h-1=5=0101, reverse 1010, +1=2121, k=2nd position: value is 1: codtabm(6,2)=1
-   /*      h++; */
+      *              bbbbbbbb
-   /*      if (h>m)  */
+      *              76543210
-   /*        h=1; */
+      *   h-1        00000101 (6-1=5)
-   /*      codtab[h][k]=j; */
+      *(h-1)>>(k-1)= 00000010 >> (2-1) = 1 right shift
-   /*      /\* codtab[12][3]=1; *\/ */
+      *           &
-   /*      /\*codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;*\/ */
+      *     1        00000001 (1)
-   /*      /\* printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d Tvar[k]=%d codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k],codtab[h][Tvar[k]]); *\/ */
+      *              00000000        = 1 & ((h-1) >> (k-1))
-   /*    }  */
+      *          +1= 00000001 =1
-   /*     } */
+      *
-   /*   } */
+      * h=14, k=3 => h'=h-1=13, k'=k-1=2
-   /* }  */
+      *          h'      1101 =2^3+2^2+0x2^1+2^0
-   /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);
+      *    >>k'            11
-      codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
+      *          &   00000001
-   /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){  */
+      *            = 00000001
-   /*    for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){ */
+      *      +1    = 00000010=2    =  codtabm(14,3)
-   /*      printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff); */
+      * Reverse h=6 and m=16?
-   /*    } */
+      * cptcoveff=log(16)/log(2)=4 covariate: 6-1=5=0101 reversed=1010 +1=2121 =>V1=2, V2=1, V3=2, V4=1.
-   /*    printf("\n"); */
+      * for (j=1 to cptcoveff) Vj=decodtabm(j,h,cptcoveff)
-   /* } */
+      * decodtabm(h,j,cptcoveff)= (((h-1) >> (j-1)) & 1) +1
-   /*   scanf("%d",i);*/
+      * decodtabm(h,j,cptcoveff)= (h <= (1<<cptcoveff)?(((h-1) >> (j-1)) & 1) +1 : -1)
+      * V3=decodtabm(14,3,2**4)=2
+      *          h'=13   1101 =2^3+2^2+0x2^1+2^0
+      *(h-1) >> (j-1)    0011 =13 >> 2
+      *          &1 000000001
+      *           = 000000001
+      *         +1= 000000010 =2
+      *                  2211
+      *                  V1=1+1, V2=0+1, V3=1+1, V4=1+1
+      *                  V3=2
+                  * codtabm and decodtabm are identical
+      */
   free_ivector(Ndum,-1,NCOVMAX);
- Line 7177  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9088  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
    }
    else{
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# IMaCh-%s\n", version);
      fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
      //fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
      fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
- Line 7204  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9115  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    else{
    fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
  <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
- Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
            optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
    }
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"utf-8\"/><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"7\"><a href=http:/euroreves.ined.fr/imach>IMaCh for Interpolated Markov Chain</a> </font><br>\n<font size=\"3\">Sponsored by Copyright (C)  2002-2015 <a href=http://www.ined.fr>INED</a>-EUROREVES-Institut de longévité-2013-2016-Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciences 日本学術振興会 (<a href=https://www.jsps.go.jp/english/e-grants/>Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121</a>) - <a href=https://software.intel.com/en-us>Intel Software 2015-2018</a></font><br>  \
  <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
- Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
+ <font size=\"2\">IMaCh-%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n\
  \n\
  <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
   <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
- Line 7234  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 9147  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
  #endif
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
+                  and for any valid combination of covariates
       and prints on file fileres'p'. */
-   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
+   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvaraff, invalidvarcomb, nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,    \
+                                                         firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model);
    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
    fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
- Line 7244  Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.
+ Line 9159  Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.
  Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
            imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
    pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+         oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+         newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+         savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+         oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
    /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
       so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
    p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
- Line 7258  Interval (in months) between two waves:
+ Line 9172  Interval (in months) between two waves:
    /* For mortality only */
    if (mle==-3){
      ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
+                 for(i=1;i<=NDIM;i++)
+                         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
+                                 ximort[i][j]=0.;
      /*     ximort=gsl_matrix_alloc(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); */
      cens=ivector(1,n);
      ageexmed=vector(1,n);
      agecens=vector(1,n);
      dcwave=ivector(1,n);
      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        dcwave[i]=-1;
        for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
-         if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
+                                 if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
-           dcwave[i]=m;
+                                         dcwave[i]=m;
-           /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
+                                         /*      printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
-           break;
+                                         break;
-         }
+                                 }
      }
      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
        if (wav[i]>0){
-         ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
+                                 ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
-         j=wav[i];
+                                 j=wav[i];
-         agecens[i]=1.;
+                                 agecens[i]=1.;
-         if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
+                                 if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
-           agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
+                                         agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
-           cens[i]= 1;
+                                         cens[i]= 1;
-         }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
+                                 }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
-           cens[i]= -1;
+                                         cens[i]= -1;
-         if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
+                                 if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
-           cens[i]=0 ;
+                                         cens[i]=0 ;
        }
        else cens[i]=-1;
      }
      for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
        for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
-         ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+                                 ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      }
      /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
- Line 7402  Interval (in months) between two waves:
+ Line 9319  Interval (in months) between two waves:
  #endif
      fclose(ficrespow);
-     hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
+     hesscov(matcov, hess, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
      for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
        for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
-         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
+                                 matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\nCovariance matrix\n ");
      for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
        for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){
-         printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
+                                 printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",matcov[i][j]);
        }
-       printf("\n ");
+       printf("\n ");  fprintf(ficlog,"\n ");
      }
      printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
- Line 7452  Interval (in months) between two waves:
+ Line 9371  Interval (in months) between two waves:
      replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
+                 ageminpar=50;
+                 agemaxpar=100;
      if(ageminpar == AGEOVERFLOW ||agemaxpar == AGEOVERFLOW){
          printf("Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
- Line 7459  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9380  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
-     }else
+     }else{
+                         printf("Warning! ageminpar %f and agemaxpar %f have been fixed because for simplification until it is fixed...\n\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+                         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! ageminpar %f and agemaxpar %f have been fixed because for simplification until it is fixed...\n\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
        printinggnuplotmort(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+                 }
      printinghtmlmort(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                       stepm, weightopt,\
                       model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
- Line 7468  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9392  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
      free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
      free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
- #ifdef GSL
+     free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
      free_ivector(cens,1,n);
      free_vector(agecens,1,n);
      free_ivector(dcwave,1,n);
-     free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
+ #ifdef GSL
  #endif
    } /* Endof if mle==-3 mortality only */
-   /* Standard maximisation */
+   /* Standard  */
-   else{ /* For mle >=1 */
+   else{ /* For mle !=- 3, could be 0 or 1 or 4 etc. */
-     globpr=0;/* debug */
+     globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
-     /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters */
+     /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
      likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
      printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
      for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
        printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
      printf("\n");
-     globpr=1; /* again, to print the contributions */
+     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximization */
+       /* mlikeli uses func not funcone */
+       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
+     }
+     if(mle==0) {/* No optimization, will print the likelihoods for the datafile */
+       globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
+       /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
+       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
+     }
+     globpr=1; /* again, to print the individual contributions using computed gpimx and gsw */
      likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
      printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
      for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
        printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
      printf("\n");
-     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximisation */
-       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
-     }
      /*--------- results files --------------*/
      fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
- Line 7503  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9433  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
        for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
-         if (k != i) {
+                                 if (k != i) {
-           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
+                                         printf("%d%d ",i,k);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
-           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
+                                         fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
-           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+                                         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-             printf("%12.7f ",p[jk]);
+                                                 printf("%12.7f ",p[jk]);
-             fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
-             fprintf(ficres,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficres,"%12.7f ",p[jk]);
-             jk++;
+                                                 jk++;
-           }
+                                         }
-           printf("\n");
+                                         printf("\n");
-           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+                                         fprintf(ficres,"\n");
-         }
+                                 }
        }
      }
-     if(mle!=0){
+     if(mle != 0){
-       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
+       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix only at a peak of the Likelihood, that is after optimization */
        ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
-       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
+       hesscov(matcov, hess, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
-     }
+       printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
-     printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n  It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
-     fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n  It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
+       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+                                 for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
-       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+                                         if (k != i) {
-         if (k != i) {
+                                                 printf("%d%d ",i,k);
-           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
+                                                 for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+                                                         printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
-             printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
+                                                         fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
-             fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
+                                                         jk++;
-             jk++;
+                                                 }
-           }
+                                                 printf("\n");
-           printf("\n");
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                                         }
-         }
+                                 }
        }
-     }
+     } /* end of hesscov and Wald tests */
+     /*  */
      fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
      printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
        for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-         if (j!=i) {
+                                 if (j!=i) {
-           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+                                         fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
-           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+                                         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
-           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+                                         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
+                                                 printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
-             fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
-             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+                                                 fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
-             jk++;
+                                                 jk++;
-           }
+                                         }
-           printf("\n");
+                                         printf("\n");
-           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                                         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+                                         fprintf(ficres,"\n");
-         }
+                                 }
        }
      }
      fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
-     if(mle>=1)
+     if(mle >= 1) /* To big for the screen */
        printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
      /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
- Line 7584  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9515  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
        jj=0;
        for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+                                 for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-           if(j==i) continue;
+                                         if(j==i) continue;
-           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+                                         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-             jj++;
+                                                 jj++;
-             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
+                                                 ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
-             if(itimes==1){
+                                                 if(itimes==1){
-               if(mle>=1)
+                                                         if(mle>=1)
-                 printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+                                                                 printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-               fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+                                                         fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-               fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+                                                         fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-             }else{
+                                                 }else{
-               if(mle>=1)
+                                                         if(mle>=1)
-                 printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+                                                                 printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-               fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+                                                         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-               fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
+                                                         fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
-             }
+                                                 }
-             ll=0;
+                                                 ll=0;
-             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
+                                                 for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
-               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
+                                                         for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
-                 if(lj==li) continue;
+                                                                 if(lj==li) continue;
-                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
+                                                                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
-                   ll++;
+                                                                         ll++;
-                   if(ll<=jj){
+                                                                         if(ll<=jj){
-                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
+                                                                                 cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
-                     if(ll<jj){
+                                                                                 if(ll<jj){
-                       if(itimes==1){
+                                                                                         if(itimes==1){
-                         if(mle>=1)
+                                                                                                 if(mle>=1)
-                           printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+                                                                                                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
-                         fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
-                         fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
-                       }else{
+                                                                                         }else{
-                         if(mle>=1)
+                                                                                                 if(mle>=1)
-                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                                                                                                         printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                       }
+                                                                                         }
-                     }else{
+                                                                                 }else{
-                       if(itimes==1){
+                                                                                         if(itimes==1){
-                         if(mle>=1)
+                                                                                                 if(mle>=1)
-                           printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+                                                                                                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
-                         fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
-                         fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
-                       }else{
+                                                                                         }else{
-                         if(mle>=1)
+                                                                                                 if(mle>=1)
-                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                                                                                                         printf(" %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficlog," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                                                                                                 fprintf(ficres," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                       }
+                                                                                         }
-                     }
+                                                                                 }
-                   }
+                                                                         }
-                 } /* end lk */
+                                                                 } /* end lk */
-               } /* end lj */
+                                                         } /* end lj */
-             } /* end li */
+                                                 } /* end li */
-             if(mle>=1)
+                                                 if(mle>=1)
-               printf("\n");
+                                                         printf("\n");
-             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+                                                 fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+                                                 fprintf(ficres,"\n");
-             numlinepar++;
+                                                 numlinepar++;
-           } /* end k*/
+                                         } /* end k*/
-         } /*end j */
+                                 } /*end j */
        } /* end i */
      } /* end itimes */
      fflush(ficlog);
      fflush(ficres);
+                 while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+                         /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+                         if (line[0] == '#') {
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+                                 numlinepar++;
-       fputs(line,stdout);
+                                 fputs(line,stdout);
-       fputs(line,ficparo);
+                                 fputs(line,ficparo);
-     }
+                                 fputs(line,ficlog);
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+                                 continue;
+                         }else
+                                 break;
+                 }
+     /* while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){ */
+     /*   ungetc(c,ficpar); */
+     /*   fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar); */
+     /*   fputs(line,stdout); */
+     /*   fputs(line,ficparo); */
+     /* } */
+     /* ungetc(c,ficpar); */
      estepm=0;
-     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
+     if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d ftolpl=%lf\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm, &ftolpl)) !=EOF){
+                         if (num_filled != 6) {
+                                 printf("Error: Not 6 parameters in line, for example:agemin=60 agemax=95 bage=55 fage=95 estepm=24 ftolpl=6e-4\n, your line=%s . Probably you are running an older format.\n",line);
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Error: Not 6 parameters in line, for example:agemin=60 agemax=95 bage=55 fage=95 estepm=24 ftolpl=6e-4\n, your line=%s . Probably you are running an older format.\n",line);
+                                 goto end;
+                         }
+                         printf("agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d ftolpl=%lf\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar, bage, fage, estepm, ftolpl);
+                 }
+                 /* ftolpl=6*ftol*1.e5; /\* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit *\/ */
+                 /*ftolpl=6.e-4;*/ /* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */
+     /* fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d ftolpl=%\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm); */
      if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
      if (fage <= 2) {
        bage = ageminpar;
- Line 7667  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9621  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      }
      fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
-     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d ftolpl=%e\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm, ftolpl);
-     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d, ftolpl=%e\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm, ftolpl);
      /* Other stuffs, more or less useful */
      while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
        ungetc(c,ficpar);
- Line 7717  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9671  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
      /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fscanf(ficpar,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj);
+     fprintf(ficparo,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",backcast,jback1,mback1,anback1,jback2,mback2,anback2,mobilavproj);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",backcast,jback1,mback1,anback1,jback2,mback2,anback2,mobilavproj);
+     fprintf(ficres,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",backcast,jback1,mback1,anback1,jback2,mback2,anback2,mobilavproj);
+     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
-      /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
+                 /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
      /* ,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2); */
      replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
      if(ageminpar == AGEOVERFLOW ||agemaxpar == -AGEOVERFLOW){
-         printf("Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
+                         printf("Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
+                         fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Error in gnuplot file with ageminpar %f or agemaxpar %f overflow\n\
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
-     }else
+     }else{
-       printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+       printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p);
+     }
-     printinghtml(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
+     printinghtml(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt, \
-                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
+                                                                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,prevfcast,backcast, estepm, \
-                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
+                                                                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,dateprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2,dateprev2);
-    /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
+                 /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
-    /*  chdir(path); */
+                 /*  chdir(path); */
-     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
+     /* free_ivector(wav,1,imx); */  /* Moved after last prevalence call */
-     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     /* free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx); */
-     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     /* free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx); */
-     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     /* free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);    */
      free_lvector(num,1,n);
      free_vector(agedc,1,n);
      /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
      /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
      fclose(ficparo);
      fclose(ficres);
      /* Other results (useful)*/
      /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
      /*#include "prevlim.h"*/  /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
      prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-     prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl);
+     prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear);
      fclose(ficrespl);
- #ifdef FREEEXIT2
- #include "freeexit2.h"
- #endif
      /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
      /*#include "hpijx.h"*/
      hPijx(p, bage, fage);
      fclose(ficrespij);
-   /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
+     /* ncovcombmax=  pow(2,cptcoveff); */
+     /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
      k=1;
      varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
+     /* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] */
-     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
      for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
-       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
+       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* ndeath is useless but a necessity to be compared with mobaverages */
-         for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
+                                 for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++)
-           probs[i][j][k]=0.;
+                                         probs[i][j][k]=0.;
+     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0 ) {
+       mobaverages= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+                         for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
+                                 for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+                                         for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++)
+                                                 mobaverages[i][j][k]=0.;
+       mobaverage=mobaverages;
+       if (mobilav!=0) {
+                                 if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, mobaverage, mobilav)!=0){
+                                         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+                                         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+                                 }
+       }
+       /* /\* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] *\/ */
+       /* prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
+       else if (mobilavproj !=0) {
+                                 if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, mobaverage, mobilavproj)!=0){
+                                         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
+                                         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
+                                 }
+       }
+     }/* end if moving average */
      /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
      /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
      if(prevfcast==1){
        /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
        prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
-       /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
-       /*      }  */
-       /*      else{ */
-       /*        erreur=108; */
-       /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
-       /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
-       /*      } */
      }
+     if(backcast==1){
+       ddnewms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+       ddoldms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+       ddsavms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+       /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
+       bprlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+       back_prevalence_limit(p, bprlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass, mobilavproj);
+       fclose(ficresplb);
+       hBijx(p, bage, fage, mobaverage);
+       fclose(ficrespijb);
+       free_matrix(bprlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
+       /* prevbackforecast(fileresu, anback1, mback1, jback1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj,
+          bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anback2, p, cptcoveff); */
+       free_matrix(ddnewms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
+       free_matrix(ddsavms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
+       free_matrix(ddoldms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
+     }
      /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */
-     /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
+     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
+     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
-     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
-     /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
+     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
-         ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
-     */
-     if (mobilav!=0) {
-       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-       }
-     }
      /*---------- Health expectancies, no variances ------------*/
      strcpy(filerese,"E_");
      strcat(filerese,fileresu);
      if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(ficlog);
-     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
-         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-           fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         }
+       }
-         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
-         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);
-         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-       /*}*/
+       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+       evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);
+       free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
      }
      fclose(ficreseij);
+     printf("done evsij\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done evsij\n");fflush(ficlog);
      /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
      strcpy(filerest,"T_");
      strcat(filerest,fileresu);
      if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
      }
-     printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+     printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(ficlog);
      strcpy(fileresstde,"STDE_");
      strcat(fileresstde,fileresu);
- Line 7862  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9852  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+     printf("  Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"  Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
      strcpy(filerescve,"CVE_");
      strcat(filerescve,fileresu);
- Line 7871  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9861  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+     printf("    Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"    Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
      strcpy(fileresv,"V_");
      strcat(fileresv,fileresu);
- Line 7880  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9870  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+     printf("      Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"      Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(ficlog);
      /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
        for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
-         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
-         fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         }
+       }
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
-         fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
-         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
-         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
+       printf(" cvevsij %d, ",k);
-         /*
+       fprintf(ficlog, " cvevsij %d, ",k);
-          */
+       cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
-         /* goto endfree; */
+       printf(" end cvevsij \n ");
+       fprintf(ficlog, " end cvevsij \n ");
-         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         pstamp(ficrest);
+       /*
+        */
+       /* goto endfree; */
-         for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
-           oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
+       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-           cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
+       pstamp(ficrest);
-           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
-           fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
-           if(vpopbased==1)
+       for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
-             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
+                                 oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
-           else
+                                 cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
-             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+                                 printf("varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
-           fprintf(ficrest,"# Age popbased mobilav e.. (std) ");
+                                 fprintf(ficlog, "varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
-           for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
+                                 varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
-           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
-           /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
+                                 if(vpopbased==1)
-           epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
+                                         fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
-           for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
+                                 else
-             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k); /*ZZ Is it the correct prevalim */
+                                         fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-             if (vpopbased==1) {
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"# Age popbased mobilav e.. (std) ");
-               if(mobilav ==0){
+                                 for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
-                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
-                   prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
+                                 /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
-               }else{ /* mobilav */
+                                 epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
-                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                                 printf("Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-                   prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-               }
+                                 for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
-             }
+                                         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k); /*ZZ Is it the correct prevalim */
+                                         if (vpopbased==1) {
-             fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav);
+                                                 if(mobilav ==0){
-             /* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */
+                                                         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
+                                                                 prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
-               for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
+                                                 }else{ /* mobilav */
-                 epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
+                                                         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-                 /*ZZZ  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+                                                                 prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
-                 /* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
+                                                 }
-               }
+                                         }
-               epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
-             }
+                                         fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav);
-             /* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */
+                                         /* fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav,Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */ /* to be done */
+                                         /* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */
-             for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
+                                         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
-               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
+                                                 for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
-                 vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
+                                                         epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
-             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+                                                         /*ZZZ  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
-             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
+                                                         /* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
-               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+                                                 }
-             }
+                                                 epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
-             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+                                         }
-           }
+                                         /* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */
-         }
-         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+                                         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
-         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+                                                 for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
-         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
+                                                         vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
+                                         fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+                                         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
+                                                 fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+                                         }
+                                         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+                                 }
+       } /* End vpopbased */
+       free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
+       printf("done \n");fflush(stdout);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"done\n");fflush(ficlog);
        /*}*/
-     }
+     } /* End k */
      free_vector(weight,1,n);
      free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
      free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
- Line 7981  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9984  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fclose(ficrescveij);
      fclose(ficresvij);
      fclose(ficrest);
+     printf("done Health expectancies\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done Health expectancies\n");fflush(ficlog);
      fclose(ficpar);
      /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
- Line 7991  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9996  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
        exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
+     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);
      /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
        for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
          fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+                         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
+                         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
-         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+                         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+                         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
+                         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k, strstart);
-         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+                         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
        /*}*/
      }
      fclose(ficresvpl);
+     printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
      /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
-     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0)
-     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+       free_ma3x(mobaverages,1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax); /* We need to have a squared matrix with prevalence of the dead! */
-   }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
+     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
-  /* endfree:*/
      free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
      free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+   }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
+  /* endfree:*/
      free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
      free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
      free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+     free_ma3x(cotqvar,1,maxwav,1,ntqv,1,n);
+     free_ma3x(cotvar,1,maxwav,1,ntv,1,n);
+     free_matrix(coqvar,1,maxwav,1,n);
      free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
      free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
+     free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
      /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
      free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
      free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
- Line 8033  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 10046  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      free_ivector(Tvar,1,NCOVMAX);
      free_ivector(Tprod,1,NCOVMAX);
      free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ivector(invalidvarcomb,1,ncovcombmax);
      free_ivector(Tage,1,NCOVMAX);
      free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
- Line 8042  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 10056  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
-     printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
+     printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings. Please look at the log file for details.\n",nberr,nbwarn);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d. Please look at the log file for details.\n",nberr,nbwarn);
    }else{
      printf("End of Imach\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");

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