--- imach/src/imach.c 2006/04/04 15:20:31 1.125 +++ imach/src/imach.c 2014/09/01 10:34:10 1.159 @@ -1,6018 +1,6761 @@ -/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.125 2006/04/04 15:20:31 lievre Exp $ - $State: Exp $ +/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.159 2014/09/01 10:34:10 brouard Exp $ + $State: Exp $ $Log: imach.c,v $ + Revision 1.159 2014/09/01 10:34:10 brouard + Summary: WIN32 + Author: Brouard + + Revision 1.158 2014/08/27 17:11:51 brouard + *** empty log message *** + + Revision 1.157 2014/08/27 16:26:55 brouard + Summary: Preparing windows Visual studio version + Author: Brouard + + In order to compile on Visual studio, time.h is now correct and time_t + and tm struct should be used. difftime should be used but sometimes I + just make the differences in raw time format (time(&now). + Trying to suppress #ifdef LINUX + Add xdg-open for __linux in order to open default browser. + + Revision 1.156 2014/08/25 20:10:10 brouard + *** empty log message *** + + Revision 1.155 2014/08/25 18:32:34 brouard + Summary: New compile, minor changes + Author: Brouard + + Revision 1.154 2014/06/20 17:32:08 brouard + Summary: Outputs now all graphs of convergence to period prevalence + + Revision 1.153 2014/06/20 16:45:46 brouard + Summary: If 3 live state, convergence to period prevalence on same graph + Author: Brouard + + Revision 1.152 2014/06/18 17:54:09 brouard + Summary: open browser, use gnuplot on same dir than imach if not found in the path + + Revision 1.151 2014/06/18 16:43:30 brouard + *** empty log message *** + + Revision 1.150 2014/06/18 16:42:35 brouard + Summary: If gnuplot is not in the path try on same directory than imach binary (OSX) + Author: brouard + + Revision 1.149 2014/06/18 15:51:14 brouard + Summary: Some fixes in parameter files errors + Author: Nicolas Brouard + + Revision 1.148 2014/06/17 17:38:48 brouard + Summary: Nothing new + Author: Brouard + + Just a new packaging for OS/X version 0.98nS + + Revision 1.147 2014/06/16 10:33:11 brouard + *** empty log message *** + + Revision 1.146 2014/06/16 10:20:28 brouard + Summary: Merge + Author: Brouard + + Merge, before building revised version. + + Revision 1.145 2014/06/10 21:23:15 brouard + Summary: Debugging with valgrind + Author: Nicolas Brouard + + Lot of changes in order to output the results with some covariates + After the Edimburgh REVES conference 2014, it seems mandatory to + improve the code. + No more memory valgrind error but a lot has to be done in order to + continue the work of splitting the code into subroutines. + Also, decodemodel has been improved. Tricode is still not + optimal. nbcode should be improved. Documentation has been added in + the source code. + + Revision 1.143 2014/01/26 09:45:38 brouard + Summary: Version 0.98nR (to be improved, but gives same optimization results as 0.98k. Nice, promising + + * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested... + (Module): Version 0.98nR Running ok, but output format still only works for three covariates. + + Revision 1.142 2014/01/26 03:57:36 brouard + Summary: gnuplot changed plot w l 1 has to be changed to plot w l lt 2 + + * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested... + + Revision 1.141 2014/01/26 02:42:01 brouard + * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested... + + Revision 1.140 2011/09/02 10:37:54 brouard + Summary: times.h is ok with mingw32 now. + + Revision 1.139 2010/06/14 07:50:17 brouard + After the theft of my laptop, I probably lost some lines of codes which were not uploaded to the CVS tree. + I remember having already fixed agemin agemax which are pointers now but not cvs saved. + + Revision 1.138 2010/04/30 18:19:40 brouard + *** empty log message *** + + Revision 1.137 2010/04/29 18:11:38 brouard + (Module): Checking covariates for more complex models + than V1+V2. A lot of change to be done. Unstable. + + Revision 1.136 2010/04/26 20:30:53 brouard + (Module): merging some libgsl code. Fixing computation + of likelione (using inter/intrapolation if mle = 0) in order to + get same likelihood as if mle=1. + Some cleaning of code and comments added. + + Revision 1.135 2009/10/29 15:33:14 brouard + (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code. + + Revision 1.134 2009/10/29 13:18:53 brouard + (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code. + + Revision 1.133 2009/07/06 10:21:25 brouard + just nforces + + Revision 1.132 2009/07/06 08:22:05 brouard + Many tings + + Revision 1.131 2009/06/20 16:22:47 brouard + Some dimensions resccaled + + Revision 1.130 2009/05/26 06:44:34 brouard + (Module): Max Covariate is now set to 20 instead of 8. A + lot of cleaning with variables initialized to 0. Trying to make + V2+V3*age+V1+V4 strb=V3*age+V1+V4 working better. + + Revision 1.129 2007/08/31 13:49:27 lievre + Modification of the way of exiting when the covariate is not binary in order to see on the window the error message before exiting + + Revision 1.128 2006/06/30 13:02:05 brouard + (Module): Clarifications on computing e.j + + Revision 1.127 2006/04/28 18:11:50 brouard + (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since + imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age + loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop. + (Module): In order to speed up (in case of numerous covariates) we + compute health expectancies (without variances) in a first step + and then all the health expectancies with variances or standard + deviation (needs data from the Hessian matrices) which slows the + computation. + In the future we should be able to stop the program is only health + expectancies and graph are needed without standard deviations. + + Revision 1.126 2006/04/28 17:23:28 brouard + (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since + imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age + loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop. + Version 0.98h + Revision 1.125 2006/04/04 15:20:31 lievre Errors in calculation of health expectancies. Age was not initialized. Forecasting file added. - - Revision 1.124 2006/03/22 17:13:53 lievre - Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma). - The log-likelihood is printed in the log file - - Revision 1.123 2006/03/20 10:52:43 brouard - * imach.c (Module):
=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
- }
-}
-
-/********************** nrerror ********************/
-
-void nrerror(char error_text[])
-{
- fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
- fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
- exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
-}
-/*********************** vector *******************/
-double *vector(int nl, int nh)
-{
- double *v;
- v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
- if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
- return v-nl+NR_END;
-}
-
-/************************ free vector ******************/
-void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
-{
- free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/************************ivector *******************************/
-int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
-{
- int *v;
- v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
- if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
- return v-nl+NR_END;
-}
-
-/******************free ivector **************************/
-void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
-{
- free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/************************lvector *******************************/
-long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
-{
- long *v;
- v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
- if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
- return v-nl+NR_END;
-}
-
-/******************free lvector **************************/
-void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
-{
- free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/******************* imatrix *******************************/
-int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
- /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */
-{
- long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;
- int **m;
-
- /* allocate pointers to rows */
- m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));
- if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
- m += NR_END;
- m -= nrl;
-
-
- /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */
- m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
- if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
- m[nrl] += NR_END;
- m[nrl] -= ncl;
-
- for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
-
- /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */
- return m;
-}
-
-/****************** free_imatrix *************************/
-void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
- int **m;
- long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;
- /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */
-{
- free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
- free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/******************* matrix *******************************/
-double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
-{
- long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
- double **m;
-
- m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
- if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
- m += NR_END;
- m -= nrl;
-
- m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
- if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
- m[nrl] += NR_END;
- m[nrl] -= ncl;
-
- for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
- return m;
- /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1])
- */
-}
-
-/*************************free matrix ************************/
-void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
-{
- free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
- free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/******************* ma3x *******************************/
-double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
-{
- long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
- double ***m;
-
- m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
- if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
- m += NR_END;
- m -= nrl;
-
- m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
- if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
- m[nrl] += NR_END;
- m[nrl] -= ncl;
-
- for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
-
- m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
- if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
- m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
- m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
- for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
- m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
-
- for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
- m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
- for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
- m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
- }
- return m;
- /* gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
- &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
- */
-}
-
-/*************************free ma3x ************************/
-void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
-{
- free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
- free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
- free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/*************** function subdirf ***********/
-char *subdirf(char fileres[])
-{
- /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
- strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
- strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
- strcat(tmpout,fileres);
- return tmpout;
-}
-
-/*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
-char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
-{
-
- /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
- strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
- strcat(tmpout,"/");
- strcat(tmpout,preop);
- strcat(tmpout,fileres);
- return tmpout;
-}
-
-/*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
-char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
-{
-
- /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
- strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
- strcat(tmpout,"/");
- strcat(tmpout,preop);
- strcat(tmpout,preop2);
- strcat(tmpout,fileres);
- return tmpout;
-}
-
-/***************** f1dim *************************/
-extern int ncom;
-extern double *pcom,*xicom;
-extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);
-
-double f1dim(double x)
-{
- int j;
- double f;
- double *xt;
-
- xt=vector(1,ncom);
- for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];
- f=(*nrfunc)(xt);
- free_vector(xt,1,ncom);
- return f;
-}
-
-/*****************brent *************************/
-double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin)
-{
- int iter;
- double a,b,d,etemp;
- double fu,fv,fw,fx;
- double ftemp;
- double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;
- double e=0.0;
-
- a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);
- b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);
- x=w=v=bx;
- fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);
- for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {
- xm=0.5*(a+b);
- tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);
- /* if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
- printf(".");fflush(stdout);
- fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
-#ifdef DEBUG
- printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
- fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
- /* if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
-#endif
- if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){
- *xmin=x;
- return fx;
- }
- ftemp=fu;
- if (fabs(e) > tol1) {
- r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);
- q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);
- p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;
- q=2.0*(q-r);
- if (q > 0.0) p = -p;
- q=fabs(q);
- etemp=e;
- e=d;
- if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))
- d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
- else {
- d=p/q;
- u=x+d;
- if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)
- d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);
- }
- } else {
- d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
- }
- u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));
- fu=(*f)(u);
- if (fu <= fx) {
- if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;
- SHFT(v,w,x,u)
- SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)
- } else {
- if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;
- if (fu <= fw || w == x) {
- v=w;
- w=u;
- fv=fw;
- fw=fu;
- } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {
- v=u;
- fv=fu;
- }
- }
- }
- nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");
- *xmin=x;
- return fx;
-}
-
-/****************** mnbrak ***********************/
-
-void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,
- double (*func)(double))
-{
- double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
- double fu;
-
- *fa=(*func)(*ax);
- *fb=(*func)(*bx);
- if (*fb > *fa) {
- SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)
- SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)
- }
- *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);
- *fc=(*func)(*cx);
- while (*fb > *fc) {
- r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);
- q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);
- u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/
- (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));
- ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);
- if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {
- fu=(*func)(u);
- } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {
- fu=(*func)(u);
- if (fu < *fc) {
- SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))
- SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))
- }
- } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {
- u=ulim;
- fu=(*func)(u);
- } else {
- u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);
- fu=(*func)(u);
- }
- SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)
- SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)
- }
-}
-
-/*************** linmin ************************/
-
-int ncom;
-double *pcom,*xicom;
-double (*nrfunc)(double []);
-
-void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))
-{
- double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,
- double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);
- double f1dim(double x);
- void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,
- double *fc, double (*func)(double));
- int j;
- double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
- double fx,fb,fa;
-
- ncom=n;
- pcom=vector(1,n);
- xicom=vector(1,n);
- nrfunc=func;
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- pcom[j]=p[j];
- xicom[j]=xi[j];
- }
- ax=0.0;
- xx=1.0;
- mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);
- *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);
-#ifdef DEBUG
- printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
- fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
-#endif
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- xi[j] *= xmin;
- p[j] += xi[j];
- }
- free_vector(xicom,1,n);
- free_vector(pcom,1,n);
-}
-
-char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
-{
- long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
- days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
- sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
- hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
- sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
- minutes = (sec_left) /60;
- sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
- sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);
- return ascdiff;
-}
-
-/*************** powell ************************/
-void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,
- double (*func)(double []))
-{
- void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,
- double (*func)(double []));
- int i,ibig,j;
- double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
- double fp,fptt;
- double *xits;
- int niterf, itmp;
-
- pt=vector(1,n);
- ptt=vector(1,n);
- xit=vector(1,n);
- xits=vector(1,n);
- *fret=(*func)(p);
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];
- for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {
- fp=(*fret);
- ibig=0;
- del=0.0;
- last_time=curr_time;
- (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
- printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
- fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec); fflush(ficlog);
-/* fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec); */
- for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
- printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
- fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
- fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
- }
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
- if(*iter <=3){
- tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
- strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tm));
-/* asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
- forecast_time=curr_time;
- itmp = strlen(strcurr);
- if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n') /* Windows outputs with a new line */
- strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
- printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
- fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
- for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
- forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
- tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
-/* asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
- strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
- itmp = strlen(strfor);
- if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
- strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
- printf(" - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n reached in %s i.e.\n on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
- fprintf(ficlog," - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n reached in %s i.e.\n on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
- }
- }
- for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];
- fptt=(*fret);
-#ifdef DEBUG
- printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
- fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
-#endif
- printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
- fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
- linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
- if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {
- del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));
- ibig=i;
- }
-#ifdef DEBUG
- printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
- fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
- printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
- fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
- }
- for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
- fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
- }
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-#endif
- }
- if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
-#ifdef DEBUG
- int k[2],l;
- k[0]=1;
- k[1]=-1;
- printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
- fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
- fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
- }
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
- printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
- fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
- }
- printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
- fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
- }
-#endif
-
-
- free_vector(xit,1,n);
- free_vector(xits,1,n);
- free_vector(ptt,1,n);
- free_vector(pt,1,n);
- return;
- }
- if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];
- xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];
- pt[j]=p[j];
- }
- fptt=(*func)(ptt);
- if (fptt < fp) {
- t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);
- if (t < 0.0) {
- linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
- for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];
- xi[j][n]=xit[j];
- }
-#ifdef DEBUG
- printf("Direction changed last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
- for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
- printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
- fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
- }
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-#endif
- }
- }
- }
-}
-
-/**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence) ****************/
-
-double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
-{
- /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
- matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
-
- int i, ii,j,k;
- double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
- double **matprod2();
- double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
- double **newm;
- double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
-
- for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
- for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- }
-
- cov[1]=1.;
-
- /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
- for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
- newm=savm;
- /* Covariates have to be included here again */
- cov[2]=agefin;
-
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
- cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
- /* printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
- }
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
- cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
-
- /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
- /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
- /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
- out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
-
- savm=oldm;
- oldm=newm;
- maxmax=0.;
- for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
- min=1.;
- max=0.;
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
- sumnew=0;
- for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
- prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
- max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
- min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
- }
- maxmin=max-min;
- maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
- }
- if(maxmax < ftolpl){
- return prlim;
- }
- }
-}
-
-/*************** transition probabilities ***************/
-
-double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
-{
- double s1, s2;
- /*double t34;*/
- int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
-
- for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
- for(j=1; ji s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2); */
- }
- ps[i][j]=s2;
- }
- }
- /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
-
- for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
- s1=0;
- for(j=1; j 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.
- */
- s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
- s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
- bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
- /* bias bh is positive if real duration
- * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
- */
- /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
- if( s2 > nlstate){
- /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known
- then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to
- die between last step unit time and current step unit time,
- which is also equal to probability to die before dh
- minus probability to die before dh-stepm .
- In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
- as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
- health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
- and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
- to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
- (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
- introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
- the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
- contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
- stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
- and month of death but the probability to survive from last
- interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
- probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
- Jackson for correcting this bug. Former versions increased
- mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
- which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
- lower mortality.
- */
- lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-
-
- } else if (s2==-2) {
- for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
- survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
- /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
- lli= log(survp);
- }
-
- else if (s2==-4) {
- for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
- survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
- lli= log(survp);
- }
-
- else if (s2==-5) {
- for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)
- survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
- lli= log(survp);
- }
-
- else{
- lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
- /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
- }
- /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
- /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
- /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
- ipmx +=1;
- sw += weight[i];
- ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
- } /* end of wave */
- } /* end of individual */
- } else if(mle==2){
- for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
- for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
- for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
- for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- }
- for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
- newm=savm;
- cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
- for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
- cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
- }
- out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
- 1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
- savm=oldm;
- oldm=newm;
- } /* end mult */
-
- s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
- s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
- bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
- lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
- ipmx +=1;
- sw += weight[i];
- ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
- } /* end of wave */
- } /* end of individual */
- } else if(mle==3){ /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
- for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
- for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
- for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
- for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- }
- for(d=0; d ");
-
- m=cptcoveff;
- if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-
- jj1=0;
- for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
- for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
- jj1++;
- if (cptcovn > 0) {
- fprintf(fichtm," ");
-
- m=cptcoveff;
- if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-
- jj1=0;
- for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
- for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
- jj1++;
- if (cptcovn > 0) {
- fprintf(fichtm," =(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]); */
+/* } */
+/* } */
+
+/********************** nrerror ********************/
+
+void nrerror(char error_text[])
+{
+ fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
+ fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
+ exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
+}
+/*********************** vector *******************/
+double *vector(int nl, int nh)
+{
+ double *v;
+ v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+ if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
+ return v-nl+NR_END;
+}
+
+/************************ free vector ******************/
+void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
+{
+ free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/************************ivector *******************************/
+int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
+{
+ int *v;
+ v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
+ if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
+ return v-nl+NR_END;
+}
+
+/******************free ivector **************************/
+void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
+{
+ free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/************************lvector *******************************/
+long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
+{
+ long *v;
+ v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
+ if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
+ return v-nl+NR_END;
+}
+
+/******************free lvector **************************/
+void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
+{
+ free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/******************* imatrix *******************************/
+int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+ /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */
+{
+ long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;
+ int **m;
+
+ /* allocate pointers to rows */
+ m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));
+ if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+ m += NR_END;
+ m -= nrl;
+
+
+ /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */
+ m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
+ if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+ m[nrl] += NR_END;
+ m[nrl] -= ncl;
+
+ for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+
+ /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */
+ return m;
+}
+
+/****************** free_imatrix *************************/
+void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
+ int **m;
+ long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;
+ /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */
+{
+ free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+ free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/******************* matrix *******************************/
+double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+{
+ long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
+ double **m;
+
+ m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
+ if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+ m += NR_END;
+ m -= nrl;
+
+ m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+ if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+ m[nrl] += NR_END;
+ m[nrl] -= ncl;
+
+ for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+ return m;
+ /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) or &(m[1][0])
+m[i] = address of ith row of the table. &(m[i]) is its value which is another adress
+that of m[i][0]. In order to get the value p m[i][0] but it is unitialized.
+ */
+}
+
+/*************************free matrix ************************/
+void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+{
+ free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+ free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/******************* ma3x *******************************/
+double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
+{
+ long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
+ double ***m;
+
+ m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
+ if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+ m += NR_END;
+ m -= nrl;
+
+ m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+ if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+ m[nrl] += NR_END;
+ m[nrl] -= ncl;
+
+ for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+
+ m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+ if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
+ m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
+ m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
+ for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
+ m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
+
+ for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
+ m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
+ for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)
+ m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
+ }
+ return m;
+ /* gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
+ &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
+ */
+}
+
+/*************************free ma3x ************************/
+void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
+{
+ free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
+ free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+ free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/*************** function subdirf ***********/
+char *subdirf(char fileres[])
+{
+ /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+ strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
+ strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
+ strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+ return tmpout;
+}
+
+/*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
+char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
+{
+
+ /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+ strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
+ strcat(tmpout,"/");
+ strcat(tmpout,preop);
+ strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+ return tmpout;
+}
+
+/*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
+char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
+{
+
+ /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+ strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
+ strcat(tmpout,"/");
+ strcat(tmpout,preop);
+ strcat(tmpout,preop2);
+ strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+ return tmpout;
+}
+
+/***************** f1dim *************************/
+extern int ncom;
+extern double *pcom,*xicom;
+extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);
+
+double f1dim(double x)
+{
+ int j;
+ double f;
+ double *xt;
+
+ xt=vector(1,ncom);
+ for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];
+ f=(*nrfunc)(xt);
+ free_vector(xt,1,ncom);
+ return f;
+}
+
+/*****************brent *************************/
+double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin)
+{
+ int iter;
+ double a,b,d,etemp;
+ double fu=0,fv,fw,fx;
+ double ftemp;
+ double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;
+ double e=0.0;
+
+ a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);
+ b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);
+ x=w=v=bx;
+ fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);
+ for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {
+ xm=0.5*(a+b);
+ tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);
+ /* if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
+ printf(".");fflush(stdout);
+ fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
+#ifdef DEBUG
+ printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
+ /* if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
+#endif
+ if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){
+ *xmin=x;
+ return fx;
+ }
+ ftemp=fu;
+ if (fabs(e) > tol1) {
+ r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);
+ q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);
+ p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;
+ q=2.0*(q-r);
+ if (q > 0.0) p = -p;
+ q=fabs(q);
+ etemp=e;
+ e=d;
+ if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))
+ d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
+ else {
+ d=p/q;
+ u=x+d;
+ if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)
+ d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);
+ }
+ } else {
+ d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));
+ }
+ u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));
+ fu=(*f)(u);
+ if (fu <= fx) {
+ if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;
+ SHFT(v,w,x,u)
+ SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)
+ } else {
+ if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;
+ if (fu <= fw || w == x) {
+ v=w;
+ w=u;
+ fv=fw;
+ fw=fu;
+ } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {
+ v=u;
+ fv=fu;
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");
+ *xmin=x;
+ return fx;
+}
+
+/****************** mnbrak ***********************/
+
+void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,
+ double (*func)(double))
+{
+ double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
+ double fu;
+
+ *fa=(*func)(*ax);
+ *fb=(*func)(*bx);
+ if (*fb > *fa) {
+ SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)
+ SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)
+ }
+ *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);
+ *fc=(*func)(*cx);
+ while (*fb > *fc) {
+ r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);
+ q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);
+ u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/
+ (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));
+ ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);
+ if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {
+ fu=(*func)(u);
+ } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {
+ fu=(*func)(u);
+ if (fu < *fc) {
+ SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))
+ SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))
+ }
+ } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {
+ u=ulim;
+ fu=(*func)(u);
+ } else {
+ u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);
+ fu=(*func)(u);
+ }
+ SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)
+ SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)
+ }
+}
+
+/*************** linmin ************************/
+
+int ncom;
+double *pcom,*xicom;
+double (*nrfunc)(double []);
+
+void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))
+{
+ double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,
+ double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);
+ double f1dim(double x);
+ void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,
+ double *fc, double (*func)(double));
+ int j;
+ double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
+ double fx,fb,fa;
+
+ ncom=n;
+ pcom=vector(1,n);
+ xicom=vector(1,n);
+ nrfunc=func;
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ pcom[j]=p[j];
+ xicom[j]=xi[j];
+ }
+ ax=0.0;
+ xx=1.0;
+ mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);
+ *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);
+#ifdef DEBUG
+ printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
+#endif
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ xi[j] *= xmin;
+ p[j] += xi[j];
+ }
+ free_vector(xicom,1,n);
+ free_vector(pcom,1,n);
+}
+
+char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
+{
+ long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
+ days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
+ sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
+ hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
+ sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
+ minutes = (sec_left) /60;
+ sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
+ sprintf(ascdiff,"%ld day(s) %ld hour(s) %ld minute(s) %ld second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);
+ return ascdiff;
+}
+
+/*************** powell ************************/
+void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,
+ double (*func)(double []))
+{
+ void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,
+ double (*func)(double []));
+ int i,ibig,j;
+ double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
+ double fp,fptt;
+ double *xits;
+ int niterf, itmp;
+
+ pt=vector(1,n);
+ ptt=vector(1,n);
+ xit=vector(1,n);
+ xits=vector(1,n);
+ *fret=(*func)(p);
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];
+ rcurr_time = time(NULL);
+ for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {
+ fp=(*fret);
+ ibig=0;
+ del=0.0;
+ rlast_time=rcurr_time;
+ /* (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
+ rcurr_time = time(NULL);
+ curr_time = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
+ printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time);fflush(stdout);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret,rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time); fflush(ficlog);
+/* fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec); */
+ for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
+ printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
+ fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
+ fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
+ }
+ printf("\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+ fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
+ if(*iter <=3){
+ tml = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
+ strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tml));
+/* asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
+ rforecast_time=rcurr_time;
+ itmp = strlen(strcurr);
+ if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n') /* Windows outputs with a new line */
+ strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
+ printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
+ for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
+ rforecast_time=rcurr_time+(niterf-*iter)*(rcurr_time-rlast_time);
+ forecast_time = *localtime(&rforecast_time);
+/* asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
+ strcpy(strfor,asctime(&forecast_time));
+ itmp = strlen(strfor);
+ if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
+ strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
+ printf(" - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n reached in %s i.e.\n on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
+ fprintf(ficlog," - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n reached in %s i.e.\n on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
+ }
+ }
+ for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];
+ fptt=(*fret);
+#ifdef DEBUG
+ printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
+#endif
+ printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+ linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
+ if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {
+ del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));
+ ibig=i;
+ }
+#ifdef DEBUG
+ printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
+ fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
+ printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
+ fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
+ }
+ for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
+ fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
+ }
+ printf("\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+#endif
+ }
+ if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
+#ifdef DEBUG
+ int k[2],l;
+ k[0]=1;
+ k[1]=-1;
+ printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
+ fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
+ }
+ printf("\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+ for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
+ printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
+ }
+ printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
+ fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
+ }
+#endif
+
+
+ free_vector(xit,1,n);
+ free_vector(xits,1,n);
+ free_vector(ptt,1,n);
+ free_vector(pt,1,n);
+ return;
+ }
+ if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];
+ xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];
+ pt[j]=p[j];
+ }
+ fptt=(*func)(ptt);
+ if (fptt < fp) {
+ t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);
+ if (t < 0.0) {
+ linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);
+ for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+ xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];
+ xi[j][n]=xit[j];
+ }
+#ifdef DEBUG
+ printf("Direction changed last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
+ for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
+ printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
+ fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
+ }
+ printf("\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+#endif
+ }
+ }
+ }
+}
+
+/**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence) ****************/
+
+double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
+{
+ /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
+ matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
+
+ int i, ii,j,k;
+ double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
+ /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
+ double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
+ double **newm;
+ double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
+
+ for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+ for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ }
+
+ cov[1]=1.;
+
+ /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+ for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
+ newm=savm;
+ /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+ cov[2]=agefin;
+
+ for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+ cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
+ /*printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[%d][Tvar[%d]]=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
+ }
+ /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+ /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /\* Useless *\/ */
+ /* cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]]; */
+
+ /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
+ /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
+ /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
+ /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
+ /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+ out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
+
+ savm=oldm;
+ oldm=newm;
+ maxmax=0.;
+ for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
+ min=1.;
+ max=0.;
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
+ sumnew=0;
+ for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
+ prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
+ /*printf(" prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d \n", i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin);*/
+ max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
+ min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
+ }
+ maxmin=max-min;
+ maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
+ }
+ if(maxmax < ftolpl){
+ return prlim;
+ }
+ }
+}
+
+/*************** transition probabilities ***************/
+
+double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
+{
+ /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
+ computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
+ model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
+ lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
+ and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
+ ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
+ j=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
+ Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
+ sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
+ Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
+ the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
+ */
+ double s1, lnpijopii;
+ /*double t34;*/
+ int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
+
+ for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+ for(j=1; ji s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
+ }
+ ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+ }
+ }
+
+ for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+ s1=0;
+ for(j=1; ji} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
+ ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
+ /* Computing other pijs */
+ for(j=1; j 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions.
+ */
+ s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+ s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+ bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
+ /* bias bh is positive if real duration
+ * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
+ */
+ /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
+ if( s2 > nlstate){
+ /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known
+ then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to
+ die between last step unit time and current step unit time,
+ which is also equal to probability to die before dh
+ minus probability to die before dh-stepm .
+ In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
+ as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
+ health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
+ and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
+ to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
+ (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
+ introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
+ the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
+ contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
+ stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
+ and month of death but the probability to survive from last
+ interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
+ probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
+ Jackson for correcting this bug. Former versions increased
+ mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
+ which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
+ lower mortality.
+ */
+ lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+
+
+ } else if (s2==-2) {
+ for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
+ survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
+ /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
+ lli= log(survp);
+ }
+
+ else if (s2==-4) {
+ for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
+ survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
+ lli= log(survp);
+ }
+
+ else if (s2==-5) {
+ for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)
+ survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
+ lli= log(survp);
+ }
+
+ else{
+ lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
+ /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
+ }
+ /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
+ /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
+ /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
+ ipmx +=1;
+ sw += weight[i];
+ ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+ } /* end of wave */
+ } /* end of individual */
+ } else if(mle==2){
+ for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+ for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+ for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+ for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+ for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ }
+ for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
+ newm=savm;
+ cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+ for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+ cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+ }
+ out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+ 1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+ savm=oldm;
+ oldm=newm;
+ } /* end mult */
+
+ s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
+ s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+ bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
+ lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
+ ipmx +=1;
+ sw += weight[i];
+ ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+ } /* end of wave */
+ } /* end of individual */
+ } else if(mle==3){ /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
+ for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+ for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+ for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+ for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+ for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ }
+ for(d=0; d ");
+
+ m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+ if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+
+ jj1=0;
+ for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+ for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+ jj1++;
+ if (cptcovn > 0) {
+ fprintf(fichtm," ");
+
+ m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+ if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+
+ jj1=0;
+ for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+ for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+ jj1++;
+ if (cptcovn > 0) {
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
File of contributions to the likelihood: %s
\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
- fflush(fichtm);
- }
- return;
-}
-
-
-/*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
-
-void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
-{
- int i,j, iter;
- double **xi;
- double fret;
- double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
- /* char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
- xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
- for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
- xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- printf("Powell\n"); fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
- strcpy(filerespow,"pow");
- strcat(filerespow,fileres);
- if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
- }
- fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
- for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
- if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
- fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
-
- powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
-
- free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
- fclose(ficrespow);
- printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
- fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
-
-}
-
-/**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
-void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
-{
- double **a,**y,*x,pd;
- double **hess;
- int i, j,jk;
- int *indx;
-
- double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
- double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
- void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
- void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
- double gompertz(double p[]);
- hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-
- printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
- printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
- fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
-
- hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
-
- /* printf(" %f ",p[i]);
- printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
- }
-
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
- for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
- if (j>i) {
- printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
- fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
- hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
-
- hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
- /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
- }
- }
- }
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-
- printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
-
- a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
- y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
- x=vector(1,npar);
- indx=ivector(1,npar);
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
- for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
- ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
-
- for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
- x[j]=1;
- lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
- matcov[i][j]=x[i];
- }
- }
-
- printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
- for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
- printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
- fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
- }
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- }
-
- /* Recompute Inverse */
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
- for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
- ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
-
- /* printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
-
- for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
- x[j]=1;
- lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
- y[i][j]=x[i];
- printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
- fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
- }
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- }
- */
-
- free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
- free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
- free_vector(x,1,npar);
- free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
- free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
-
-
-}
-
-/*************** hessian matrix ****************/
-double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
-{
- int i;
- int l=1, lmax=20;
- double k1,k2;
- double p2[NPARMAX+1];
- double res;
- double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
- double fx;
- int k=0,kmax=10;
- double l1;
-
- fx=func(x);
- for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
- for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
- l1=pow(10,l);
- delts=delt;
- for(k=1 ; k Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)
%s
\n",digitp);
-/* } */
- varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- pstamp(ficresvij);
- fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n# (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
- if(popbased==1)
- fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1)");
- else
- fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
- fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
- fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
- fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
-
- xp=vector(1,npar);
- dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
- doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
- dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
- doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-
- gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-
- if(estepm < stepm){
- printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
- }
- else hstepm=estepm;
- /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
- /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
- nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
- nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
- Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
- and note for a fixed period like k years */
- /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
- survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
- means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
- you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
- results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
- */
- hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
- agelim = AGESUP;
- for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
- nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
- nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
- p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
- gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
- gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
- gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-
-
- for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
- for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
- xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
- }
- hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
- prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-
- if (popbased==1) {
- if(mobilav ==0){
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
- }else{ /* mobilav */
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
- }
- }
-
- for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
- for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
- for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
- gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
- }
- }
- /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
- computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
- as a weighted average of prlim.
- */
- for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
- gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
- }
- /* end probability of death */
-
- for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
- xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
- hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
- prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-
- if (popbased==1) {
- if(mobilav ==0){
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
- }else{ /* mobilav */
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
- }
- }
-
- for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
- for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
- for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
- gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
- }
- }
- /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
- computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
- as a weighted average of prlim.
- */
- for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
- gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
- }
- /* end probability of death */
-
- for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
- for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
- gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
- }
-
- for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
- gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
- }
-
- } /* End theta */
-
- trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
-
- for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
- for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
- for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
- trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-
- for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
- for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
- trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
-
-
- hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM; /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
- for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
- vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
-
- for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
- for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
- matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
- matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
- for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
- vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
- }
- }
-
- /* pptj */
- matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
- matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
- for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
- for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
- varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
- /* end ppptj */
- /* x centered again */
- hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
- prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-
- if (popbased==1) {
- if(mobilav ==0){
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
- }else{ /* mobilav */
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
- }
- }
-
- /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
- computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
- as a weighted average of prlim.
- */
- for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
- gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
- }
- /* end probability of death */
-
- fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
- for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
- fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
- fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
- }
- }
- fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
-
- fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
- fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
- }
- fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
- free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
- free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
- free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
- free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
- free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
- } /* End age */
- free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
- /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
-/* fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\" u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
-/* fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
-/* fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\" u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): %s\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability is computed over estepm=%d months.
\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
- /* fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year
\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
-*/
-/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
-
- free_vector(xp,1,npar);
- free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
- free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
- free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
- free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
- if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
- fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
- fflush(ficgp);
- fflush(fichtm);
-} /* end varevsij */
-
-/************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
-void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
-{
- /* Variance of prevalence limit */
- /* double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
- double **newm;
- double **dnewm,**doldm;
- int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
- int k, cptcode;
- double *xp;
- double *gp, *gm;
- double **gradg, **trgradg;
- double age,agelim;
- int theta;
-
- pstamp(ficresvpl);
- fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
- fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
- fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
-
- xp=vector(1,npar);
- dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
- doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-
- hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
- hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
- agelim = AGESUP;
- for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
- nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
- if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
- nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
- gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
- gp=vector(1,nlstate);
- gm=vector(1,nlstate);
-
- for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
- for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
- xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
- }
- prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
- for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
-
- for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
- xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
- prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
- for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
-
- for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
- } /* End theta */
-
- trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-
- for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
- for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
- trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
-
- for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
- matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
- matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
- for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
-
- fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
- fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
- free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
- free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
- free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
- free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
- } /* End age */
-
- free_vector(xp,1,npar);
- free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
- free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-
-}
-
-/************ Variance of one-step probabilities ******************/
-void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
-{
- int i, j=0, i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
- int k2, l2, j1, z1;
- int k=0,l, cptcode;
- int first=1, first1;
- double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
- double **dnewm,**doldm;
- double *xp;
- double *gp, *gm;
- double **gradg, **trgradg;
- double **mu;
- double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
- double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
- int theta;
- char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
- char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
- char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
-
- double ***varpij;
-
- strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");
- strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
- if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
- }
- strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");
- strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
- if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
- }
- strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");
- strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
- if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
- }
- printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
- printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
- printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
- fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
- pstamp(ficresprob);
- fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
- fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
- pstamp(ficresprobcov);
- fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
- fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
- pstamp(ficresprobcor);
- fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
- fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
-
-
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
- fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
- fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
- fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
- }
- /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
- fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
- fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
- */
- xp=vector(1,npar);
- dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
- doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
- mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
- varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
- first=1;
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals
Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)
Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities
\n\
- file %s
\n",optionfilehtmcov);
- fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p
\n");
- fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
Contour plot corresponding to x'cov-1x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
-It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
-would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
-standard deviations wide on each axis.
\
- Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
- and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.
\
-To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.
\n");
-
- cov[1]=1;
- tj=cptcoveff;
- if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
- j1=0;
- for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
- for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){
- j1++;
- if (cptcovn>0) {
- fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");
- for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
- fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
- fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");
- for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
- fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
-
- fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");
- for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
- fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
-
-
- fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n
********** Variable ");
- for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
- fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n
");
-
- fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");
- for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
- fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");
- }
-
- for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
- cov[2]=age;
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
- cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
- }
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
- for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
- cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
-
- gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
- trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
- gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
- gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-
- for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
- for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
- xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
-
- pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-
- k=0;
- for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
- for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
- k=k+1;
- gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
- }
- }
-
- for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
- xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
-
- pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
- k=0;
- for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
- for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
- k=k+1;
- gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
- }
- }
-
- for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
- gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];
- }
-
- for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
- for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
- trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
-
- matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
- matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
- free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
- free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
- free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
- free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-
- pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
-
- k=0;
- for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
- for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
- k=k+1;
- mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
- }
- }
- for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
- for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
- varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
-
- /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
- for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
- printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
- fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
- }*/
-
- fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
- fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
- fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-
- for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
- fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
- for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
- fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
- fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
- }
- i=0;
- for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
- for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){
- i=i++;
- fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
- fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
- for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
- fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
- fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
- }
- }
- }/* end of loop for state */
- } /* end of loop for age */
-
- /* Confidence intervalle of pij */
- /*
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability with confidence intervals expressed in year-1 :pijgr%s.png, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
",optionfilefiname);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
- */
-
- /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
- first1=1;
- for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
- for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){
- if(l2==k2) continue;
- j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
- for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
- for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){
- if(l1==k1) continue;
- i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
- if(i<=j) continue;
- for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
- if ((int)age %5==0){
- v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
- v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
- cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
- mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
- mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
- c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
- /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
- lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
- lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
- /* Eigen vectors */
- v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
- /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
- v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
- v12=-v21;
- v22=v11;
- tnalp=v21/v11;
- if(first1==1){
- first1=0;
- printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
- }
- fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
- /*printf(fignu*/
- /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
- /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
- if(first==1){
- first=0;
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
- fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year-1\
- :\
-%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
- subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
- subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
- fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
- fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
- mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
- mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
- }else{
- first=0;
- fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
- mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
- mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
- }/* if first */
- } /* age mod 5 */
- } /* end loop age */
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
- first=1;
- } /*l12 */
- } /* k12 */
- } /*l1 */
- }/* k1 */
- } /* loop covariates */
- }
- free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
- free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
- free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
- free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
- free_vector(xp,1,npar);
- fclose(ficresprob);
- fclose(ficresprobcov);
- fclose(ficresprobcor);
- fflush(ficgp);
- fflush(fichtmcov);
-}
-
-
-/******************* Printing html file ***********/
-void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
- int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
- int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
- int popforecast, int estepm ,\
- double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
- double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
- int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"");
- fprintf(fichtm,"Result files (first order: no variance)
\n \
- - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): %s
\n ",
- jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: %s
\n ",
- stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: %s
\n",
- subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age: ei., eij . If one or more covariate are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
- %s
\n",
- estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Population projections by age and states: \
- %s
\n
");
-
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
-\n
************ Results for covariates");
- for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
- fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
- fprintf(fichtm," ************\n
");
- }
- /* Pij */
- fprintf(fichtm,"
- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d1.png
\
-",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
- /* Quasi-incidences */
- fprintf(fichtm,"
- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
- before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d2.png
\
-",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
- /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
- for(cpt=1; cpt
\
-",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
- }
- for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies : %s%d%d.png
\
-",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
- }
- } /* end i1 */
- }/* End k1 */
- fprintf(fichtm," Result files (second order: variances)
\n\
- - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: %s
\n", rfileres,rfileres);
-
- fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: %s
\n",
- subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: %s
\n",
- subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: %s
\n",
- subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and initial health status (cov(eij,ekl)(estepm=%2d months): \
- %s
\n
\n",
- estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), eij are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences (i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): %s
\n",
- estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e.j with their standard errors: %s
\n",
- subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
- fprintf(fichtm,"\
- - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: %s
\n",\
- subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
-
-/* if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
-/* - Prevalences forecasting: f%s
\n */
-/* - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): pop%s
\n */
-/*
",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
-/* else */
-/* fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)
\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
- fflush(fichtm);
- fprintf(fichtm,"
");
- fflush(fichtm);
-}
-
-/******************* Gnuplot file **************/
-void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
-
- char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
- int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
- int ng;
-/* if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
-/* printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
-/* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
-/* } */
-
- /*#ifdef windows */
- fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
- /*#endif */
- m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-
- strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
- strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
- /* 1eme*/
- for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
- for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
- fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
-set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
-set ter png small\n\
-set size 0.65,0.65\n\
-plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
-
- for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
- if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
- else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
- for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
- if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
- else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
- for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
- if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
- else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
- }
- }
- /*2 eme*/
-
- for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
- fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
-
- for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
- k=2*i;
- fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
- for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
- if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
- else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
- }
- if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
- else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
- for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
- if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
- else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
- fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
- for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
- if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
- else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
- }
- if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
- else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
- }
- }
-
- /*3eme*/
-
- for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
- for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
- /* k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
- k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
- fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
-set size 0.65,0.65\n\
-plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
- /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
- for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
- fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
- fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
- for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
- fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
-
- */
- for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
- fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
- /* fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
-
- }
- fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
- }
- }
-
- /* CV preval stable (period) */
- for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
- for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
- k=3;
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
- fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
-set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
-unset log y\n\
-plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
-
- for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
- fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
- fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
-
- l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
- fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
- for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
- l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
- fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);
- }
- }
-
- /* proba elementaires */
- for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
- for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
- if (k != i) {
- for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
- fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
- jk++;
- fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
- }
- }
- }
- }
-
- for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
- for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng);
- if (ng==2)
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
- else
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
- fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
- i=1;
- for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
- k3=i;
- for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
- if (k != k2){
- if(ng==2)
- fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
- else
- fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
- ij=1;
- for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
- if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
- fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
- ij++;
- }
- else
- fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
-
- for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
- fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
- ij=1;
- for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
- if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
- fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
- ij++;
- }
- else
- fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,")");
- }
- fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
- if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
- i=i+ncovmodel;
- }
- } /* end k */
- } /* end k2 */
- } /* end jk */
- } /* end ng */
- fflush(ficgp);
-} /* end gnuplot */
-
-
-/*************** Moving average **************/
-int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
-
- int i, cpt, cptcod;
- int modcovmax =1;
- int mobilavrange, mob;
- double age;
-
- modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose
- a covariate has 2 modalities */
- if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
-
- if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
- if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
- else mobilavrange=mobilav;
- for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
- for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
- mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
- /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for
- fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
- we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.
- */
- for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
- for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
- for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
- for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
- mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
- for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
- mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
- mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
- }
- mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
- }
- }
- }/* end age */
- }/* end mob */
- }else return -1;
- return 0;
-}/* End movingaverage */
-
-
-/************** Forecasting ******************/
-prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
- /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection
- agemin, agemax range of age
- dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
- anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
- */
- int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
- int *popage;
- double agec; /* generic age */
- double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
- double *popeffectif,*popcount;
- double ***p3mat;
- double ***mobaverage;
- char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
-
- agelim=AGESUP;
- prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
-
- strcpy(fileresf,"f");
- strcat(fileresf,fileres);
- if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
- }
- printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
-
- if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-
- if (mobilav!=0) {
- mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
- if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
- fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
- printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
- }
- }
-
- stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
- if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
- if(estepm < stepm){
- printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
- }
- else hstepm=estepm;
-
- hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
- yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp and
- fractional in yp1 */
- anprojmean=yp;
- yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
- mprojmean=yp;
- yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
- jprojmean=yp;
- if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
- if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
-
- i1=cptcoveff;
- if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-
- fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
-
- fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
-
-/* if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
- for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
- for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
- k=k+1;
- fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
- for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
- fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
- }
- fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
- fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
- for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
- fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
- }
- for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
- fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
- fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
-
- for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
- nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
- nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
- p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
- oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
- hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
-
- for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
- if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
- fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
- for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
- fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
- fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
- }
- for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
- ppij=0.;
- for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
- if (mobilav==1)
- ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
- else {
- ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
- }
- if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
- fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
- }
- } /* end i */
- if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
- fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
- }
- }/* end j */
- } /* end h */
- free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
- } /* end agec */
- } /* end yearp */
- } /* end cptcod */
- } /* end cptcov */
-
- if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-
- fclose(ficresf);
-}
-
-/************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
-populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
-
- int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
- int *popage;
- double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
- double *popeffectif,*popcount;
- double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
- double ***mobaverage;
- char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
-
- tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
- tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
- agelim=AGESUP;
- calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
-
- prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
-
-
- strcpy(filerespop,"pop");
- strcat(filerespop,fileres);
- if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
- }
- printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
-
- if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-
- if (mobilav!=0) {
- mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
- if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
- fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
- printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
- }
- }
-
- stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
- if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
-
- agelim=AGESUP;
-
- hstepm=1;
- hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
-
- if (popforecast==1) {
- if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
- }
- popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
- popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
- popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
-
- i=1;
- while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
-
- imx=i;
- for (i=1; i
************ Results for covariates");
- for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
- fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
- fprintf(fichtm," ************\n
");
- }
- for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
- fprintf(fichtm,"
- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
-prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png
\
-",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);
- }
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
- Total life expectancy by age and \
-health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png
\
-",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
- } /* end i1 */
- }/* End k1 */
- fprintf(fichtm,"
");
-
-fprintf(fichtm,"Result files
\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):
");
- fprintf(fichtm," mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year
",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
- for (i=1;i<=2;i++)
- fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]
\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
- fprintf(fichtm,"
");
- fprintf(fichtm,"Life table
\n
");
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge l
");
-
- for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
- fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf
\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
-
-
- fflush(fichtm);
-}
-
-/******************* Gnuplot file **************/
-void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
-
- char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
- int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
- int ng;
-
-
- /*#ifdef windows */
- fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
- /*#endif */
-
-
- strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
- strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
- fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n ");
- fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n ");
- fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small\n set log y\n");
- fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n");
- fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
-
-}
-
-
-
-
-
-/***********************************************/
-/**************** Main Program *****************/
-/***********************************************/
-
-int main(int argc, char *argv[])
-{
- int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
- int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
- int linei, month, year,iout;
- int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
- int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
- int itimes;
- int NDIM=2;
-
- char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
- char dummy[]=" ";
- /* FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
- /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
- struct stat info;
- double agedeb, agefin,hf;
- double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
-
- double fret;
- double **xi,tmp,delta;
-
- double dum; /* Dummy variable */
- double ***p3mat;
- double ***mobaverage;
- int *indx;
- char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
- char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
- char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE];
- char **bp, *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
- int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
- int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
- int c, h , cpt,l;
- int ju,jl, mi;
- int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
- int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab;
- int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
- int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
- int hstepm, nhstepm;
- int agemortsup;
- float sumlpop=0.;
- double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
- double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
-
- double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
- double ftolpl=FTOL;
- double **prlim;
- double *severity;
- double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
- double *p;
- double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
- double ***delti3; /* Scale */
- double *delti; /* Scale */
- double ***eij, ***vareij;
- double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
- double *epj, vepp;
- double kk1, kk2;
- double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
- double **ximort;
- char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
- int *dcwave;
-
- char z[1]="c", occ;
-
- char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
- char *strt, strtend[80];
- char *stratrunc;
- int lstra;
-
- long total_usecs;
-
-/* setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
-/* bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
-/* textdomain (PACKAGE); */
-/* setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
-/* setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
-
- /* gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
- (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
- curr_time=start_time;
- tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
- tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
- strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
-
-/* printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
-/* tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
-/* tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
-/* tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
-/* tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
-/* tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
-/* tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
-/* strt=asctime(&tmg); */
-/* printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart); */
-/* (void) time (&time_value);
-* printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
-* tm = *localtime(&time_value);
-* strstart=asctime(&tm);
-* printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart);
-*/
-
- nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
- nbwarn=0;
- getcwd(pathcd, size);
-
- printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
- if(argc <=1){
- printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
- fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
- i=strlen(pathr);
- if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
- pathr[i-1]='\0';
- for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
- printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
- while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
- printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
- strcpy (pathtot, val);
- if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
- }
- }
- else{
- strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
- }
- /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
- /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
- printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
- /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
-
- /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
- printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
- split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
- printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
- /* strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
- /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
- split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
- printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
- chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
- if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
- printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
- strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
- strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
- if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
- printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
- /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
- /* fclose(ficlog); */
-/* exit(1); */
- }
-/* if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
-/* perror("mkdir"); */
-/* } */
-
- /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
-
- /* Log file */
- strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
- strcat(filelog,".log"); /* */
- if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
- goto end;
- }
- fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
- fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
- path=%s \n\
- optionfile=%s\n\
- optionfilext=%s\n\
- optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
-
- printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
- fflush(ficlog);
-/* (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
-/* printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
-
- /* */
- strcpy(fileres,"r");
- strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
- strcat(fileres,".txt"); /* Other files have txt extension */
-
- /*---------arguments file --------*/
-
- if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
- fflush(ficlog);
- goto end;
- }
-
-
-
- strcpy(filereso,"o");
- strcat(filereso,fileres);
- if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
- printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
- fflush(ficlog);
- goto end;
- }
-
- /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
- numlinepar=0;
- while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
- fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
- numlinepar++;
- puts(line);
- fputs(line,ficparo);
- fputs(line,ficlog);
- }
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
-
- fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
- numlinepar++;
- printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
- fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
- fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
- fflush(ficlog);
- while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
- fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
- numlinepar++;
- puts(line);
- fputs(line,ficparo);
- fputs(line,ficlog);
- }
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
-
-
- covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
- cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
- if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
-
- ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
- nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
- npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
-
- delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
- delti=delti3[1][1];
- /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
- if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
- prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
- printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
- fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
- free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
- fclose (ficparo);
- fclose (ficlog);
- goto end;
- exit(0);
- }
- else if(mle==-3) {
- prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
- printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
- fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
- param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
- matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
- }
- else{
- /* Read guess parameters */
- /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
- while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
- fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
- numlinepar++;
- puts(line);
- fputs(line,ficparo);
- fputs(line,ficlog);
- }
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
-
- param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
- for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
- j=0;
- for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
- if(jj==i) continue;
- j++;
- fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
- if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
- printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
-It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
-run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
- exit(1);
- }
- fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
- if(mle==1)
- printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
- fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
- for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
- fscanf(ficpar," %lf",¶m[i][j][k]);
- if(mle==1){
- printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
- fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
- }
- else
- fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
- fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
- }
- fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
- numlinepar++;
- if(mle==1)
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
- }
- }
- fflush(ficlog);
-
- p=param[1][1];
-
- /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
- while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
- fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
- numlinepar++;
- puts(line);
- fputs(line,ficparo);
- fputs(line,ficlog);
- }
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
-
- for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
- for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
- fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
- if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
- printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
- exit(1);
- }
- printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
- fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
- fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
- for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
- fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
- printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
- fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
- fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
- }
- fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
- numlinepar++;
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- }
- }
- fflush(ficlog);
-
- delti=delti3[1][1];
-
-
- /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
-
- /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
- while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
- fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
- numlinepar++;
- puts(line);
- fputs(line,ficparo);
- fputs(line,ficlog);
- }
- ungetc(c,ficpar);
-
- matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
- for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
- fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
- if(mle==1)
- printf("%s",str);
- fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
- fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
- for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
- fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
- if(mle==1){
- printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
- }
- fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
- fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
- }
- fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
- numlinepar++;
- if(mle==1)
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
- fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
- }
- for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
- for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
- matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
-
- if(mle==1)
- printf("\n");
- fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-
- fflush(ficlog);
-
- /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
- strcpy(rfileres,"r"); /* "Rparameterfile */
- strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname); /* Parameter file first name*/
- strcat(rfileres,"."); /* */
- strcat(rfileres,optionfilext); /* Other files have txt extension */
- if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
- }
- fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
- } /* End of mle != -3 */
-
- /*-------- data file ----------*/
- if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
- }
-
- n= lastobs;
- severity = vector(1,maxwav);
- outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
- num=lvector(1,n);
- moisnais=vector(1,n);
- annais=vector(1,n);
- moisdc=vector(1,n);
- andc=vector(1,n);
- agedc=vector(1,n);
- cod=ivector(1,n);
- weight=vector(1,n);
- for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
- mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
- anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
- s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
- tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
- ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
-
- i=1;
- linei=0;
- while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
- linei=linei+1;
- for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){ /* Untabifies line */
- if(line[j] == '\t')
- line[j] = ' ';
- }
- for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
- ;
- };
- line[j+1]=0; /* Trims blanks at end of line */
- if(line[0]=='#'){
- fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
- printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
- continue;
- }
-
- for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
- cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
- errno=0;
- lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
- /* if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
- if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
- printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %d %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong. Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
- exit(1);
- }
- s[j][i]=lval;
-
- strcpy(line,stra);
- cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
- if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
- }
- else if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
- month=99;
- year=9999;
- }else{
- printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
- exit(1);
- }
- anint[j][i]= (double) year;
- mint[j][i]= (double)month;
- strcpy(line,stra);
- } /* ENd Waves */
-
- cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
- if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
- }
- else if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
- month=99;
- year=9999;
- }else{
- printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
- exit(1);
- }
- andc[i]=(double) year;
- moisdc[i]=(double) month;
- strcpy(line,stra);
-
- cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
- if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
- }
- else if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
- month=99;
- year=9999;
- }else{
- printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line,j);
- exit(1);
- }
- annais[i]=(double)(year);
- moisnais[i]=(double)(month);
- strcpy(line,stra);
-
- cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
- errno=0;
- dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
- if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
- printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %ld, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight. Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
- exit(1);
- }
- weight[i]=dval;
- strcpy(line,stra);
-
- for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
- cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
- errno=0;
- lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
- if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
- printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1). Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
- exit(1);
- }
- if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
- printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld for individual %d, '%s'\n \
- Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
- for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
- For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
- build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
- V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
- and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
- output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
- Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
- exit(1);
- }
- covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
- strcpy(line,stra);
- }
- lstra=strlen(stra);
-
- if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
- stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
- num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
- }
- else
- num[i]=atol(stra);
- /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
- printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]), (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]), (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]), (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
-
- i=i+1;
- } /* End loop reading data */
- fclose(fic);
- /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
- scanf("%d",i);*/
- imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
-
- /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
- if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
- if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
- if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
- }*/
- /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
- if (s[4][i]==9) s[4][i]=-1;
- printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]), (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]), (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]), (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
-
- /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) */
-
- /*if ((s[3][i]==3) || (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
- else weight[i]=1;*/
-
- /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
- Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
- Tprod=ivector(1,15);
- Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);
- Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
- Tage=ivector(1,15);
-
- if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
- j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
- j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
- j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
- cptcovn=j+1;
- cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
-
- strcpy(modelsav,model);
- if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
- printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
- goto end;
- }
-
- /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
-
- for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
- cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */
- if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
- /* printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
- /*scanf("%d",i);*/
- if (strchr(strb,'*')) { /* Model includes a product */
- cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
- if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
- cptcovprod--;
- cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
- Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
- cptcovage++;
- Tage[cptcovage]=i;
- /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
- }
- else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
- cptcovprod--;
- cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
- Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
- cptcovage++;
- Tage[cptcovage]=i;
- }
- else { /* Age is not in the model */
- cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
- Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
- cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
- Tprod[k1]=i;
- Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
- Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
- Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
- Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
- for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)
- covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
- k1++;
- k2=k2+2;
- }
- }
- else { /* no more sum */
- /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
- /* scanf("%d",i);*/
- cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
- Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
- }
- strcpy(modelsav,stra);
- /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
- scanf("%d",i);*/
- } /* end of loop + */
- } /* end model */
-
- /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
- If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
-
- /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
- printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
- fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
-
- scanf("%d ",i);*/
-
- /* if(mle==1){*/
- if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
- for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
- }
- /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
- agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
-
- for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
- for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
- if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
- anint[m][i]=9999;
- s[m][i]=-1;
- }
- if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
- nberr++;
- printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
- s[m][i]=-1;
- }
- if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
- nberr++;
- printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]);
- s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
- }
- }
- }
-
- for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
- agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
- for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
- if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
- if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
- if(agedc[i]>0)
- if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
- agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
- /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
- else {
- if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
- nbwarn++;
- printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
- agev[m][i]=-1;
- }
- }
- }
- else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
- years but with the precision of a month */
- agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
- if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
- agev[m][i]=1;
- else if(agev[m][i]
%s \
-
\n\
-Title=%s
Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s
\n",\
- optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
- }
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n
%s \
-
\n\
-Title=%s
Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s
\n\
-\n\
-
\
-
\n",\
- optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
- optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
- fileres,fileres,\
- filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
- fflush(fichtm);
-
- strcpy(pathr,path);
- strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
- chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
-
- /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
- and prints on file fileres'p'. */
- freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
- fprintf(fichtm,"Parameter files
\n\
- - Parameter file: %s.%s
\n\
- - Copy of the parameter file: o%s
\n\
- - Log file of the run: %s
\n\
- - Gnuplot file name: %s
\n\
- - Date and time at start: %s
Total number of observations=%d
\n\
-Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f
\n\
-Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf
\n",\
- imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
- pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
- oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
- newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
- savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
- oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
-
-
- /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
- so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
- p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
-
- globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
-
- if (mle==-3){
- ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
- cens=ivector(1,n);
- ageexmed=vector(1,n);
- agecens=vector(1,n);
- dcwave=ivector(1,n);
-
- for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
- dcwave[i]=-1;
- for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
- if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
- dcwave[i]=m;
- /* printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
- break;
- }
- }
-
- for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
- if (wav[i]>0){
- ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
- j=wav[i];
- agecens[i]=1.;
-
- if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
- agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
- cens[i]= 1;
- }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
- cens[i]= -1;
- if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
- cens[i]=0 ;
- }
- else cens[i]=-1;
- }
-
- for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
- for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
- ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- }
-
- p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;
- /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
-
-
- printf("Powell\n"); fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
- strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort");
- strcat(filerespow,fileres);
- if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
- printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
- fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
- }
- fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
- /* for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
- for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
- if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
- */
- fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
-
- powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
- fclose(ficrespow);
-
- hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
-
- for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
- for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
- matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
-
- printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
- for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
- for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){
- printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
- }
- printf("\n ");
- }
-
- printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
- for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++)
- printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
-
- lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
- lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
- tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
- lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
-
- for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
- agemortsup=k;
- if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
- }
-
- for (k=agegomp;k
Local time at start %s
Local time at end %s
\n",strstart, strtend);
- fclose(fichtm);
- fprintf(fichtmcov,"
Local time at start %s
Local time at end %s
\n",strstart, strtend);
- fclose(fichtmcov);
- fclose(ficgp);
- fclose(ficlog);
- /*------ End -----------*/
-
-
- printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
- if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
- printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
- if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
- printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
- /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
- sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
-#ifndef UNIX
- sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
-#endif
- if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
- printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
- if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
- printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
- }else
- strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
-#ifdef UNIX
- strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
- if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
- printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
- }else
- strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
-#endif
- }else
- strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
-
- sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
- printf("Starting graphs with: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
-
- if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
- printf("\n Problem with gnuplot\n");
- }
- printf(" Wait...");
- while (z[0] != 'q') {
- /* chdir(path); */
- printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
- scanf("%s",z);
-/* if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
- if (z[0] == 'e') {
- printf("Starting browser with: %s",optionfilehtm);fflush(stdout);
- system(optionfilehtm);
- }
- else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
- else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
- }
- end:
- while (z[0] != 'q') {
- printf("\nType q for exiting: ");
- scanf("%s",z);
- }
-}
-
-
-
+
+ Revision 1.124 2006/03/22 17:13:53 lievre
+ Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma).
+ The log-likelihood is printed in the log file
+
+ Revision 1.123 2006/03/20 10:52:43 brouard
+ * imach.c (Module):
File of contributions to the likelihood: %s
\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
+ fflush(fichtm);
+ }
+ return;
+}
+
+
+/*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
+
+void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
+{
+ int i,j, iter;
+ double **xi;
+ double fret;
+ double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
+ /* char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
+ xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+ for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
+ xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ printf("Powell\n"); fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+ strcpy(filerespow,"pow");
+ strcat(filerespow,fileres);
+ if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+ }
+ fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
+ for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+ if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
+ fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
+
+ powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
+
+ free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
+ fclose(ficrespow);
+ printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
+ fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
+
+}
+
+/**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
+void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
+{
+ double **a,**y,*x,pd;
+ double **hess;
+ int i, j,jk;
+ int *indx;
+
+ double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
+ double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
+ void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
+ void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
+ double gompertz(double p[]);
+ hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+
+ printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
+ printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+
+ hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
+
+ /* printf(" %f ",p[i]);
+ printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
+ }
+
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
+ for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+ if (j>i) {
+ printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
+ fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
+ hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
+
+ hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
+ /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ printf("\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+
+ printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
+
+ a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+ y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+ x=vector(1,npar);
+ indx=ivector(1,npar);
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+ for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
+ ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+
+ for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
+ x[j]=1;
+ lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
+ matcov[i][j]=x[i];
+ }
+ }
+
+ printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
+ for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+ printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+ }
+ printf("\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+ }
+
+ /* Recompute Inverse */
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+ for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
+ ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+
+ /* printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
+
+ for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
+ x[j]=1;
+ lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
+ y[i][j]=x[i];
+ printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+ }
+ printf("\n");
+ fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+ }
+ */
+
+ free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
+ free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
+ free_vector(x,1,npar);
+ free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
+ free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
+
+
+}
+
+/*************** hessian matrix ****************/
+double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
+{
+ int i;
+ int l=1, lmax=20;
+ double k1,k2;
+ double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
+ double res;
+ double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
+ double fx;
+ int k=0,kmax=10;
+ double l1;
+
+ fx=func(x);
+ for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
+ for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){ /* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum */
+ l1=pow(10,l);
+ delts=delt;
+ for(k=1 ; k Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)
%s
\n",digitp);
+/* } */
+ varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ pstamp(ficresvij);
+ fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n# (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
+ if(popbased==1)
+ fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+ else
+ fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+ fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+ fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
+ fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+
+ xp=vector(1,npar);
+ dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+ doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+ dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+ doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+
+ gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+
+ if(estepm < stepm){
+ printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+ }
+ else hstepm=estepm;
+ /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
+ /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
+ nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
+ nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
+ Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */
+ /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+ survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
+ means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
+ you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
+ results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
+ */
+ hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
+ agelim = AGESUP;
+ for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+ nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+ nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
+ p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+ gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+ gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+ gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+
+
+ for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+ for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
+ xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+ }
+ hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+ prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+
+ if (popbased==1) {
+ if(mobilav ==0){
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+ }else{ /* mobilav */
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+ }
+ }
+
+ for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+ for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+ for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+ }
+ }
+ /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+ computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+ as a weighted average of prlim.
+ */
+ for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+ gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+ }
+ /* end probability of death */
+
+ for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
+ xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+ hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+ prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+
+ if (popbased==1) {
+ if(mobilav ==0){
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+ }else{ /* mobilav */
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+ }
+ }
+
+ for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){ /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
+ for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+ for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+ }
+ }
+ /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+ computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+ as a weighted average of prlim.
+ */
+ for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+ gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+ }
+ /* end probability of death */
+
+ for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
+ for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+ gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
+ }
+
+ for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
+ gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
+ }
+
+ } /* End theta */
+
+ trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
+
+ for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
+ for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+ for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+ trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+
+ for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
+ for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+ trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
+
+
+ hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM; /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+ for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+ vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
+
+ for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
+ for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
+ matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+ matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
+ for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+ vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+ }
+ }
+
+ /* pptj */
+ matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+ matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
+ for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+ for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+ varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
+ /* end ppptj */
+ /* x centered again */
+ hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+ prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+
+ if (popbased==1) {
+ if(mobilav ==0){
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+ }else{ /* mobilav */
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+ }
+ }
+
+ /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+ computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+ as a weighted average of prlim.
+ */
+ for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
+ gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+ }
+ /* end probability of death */
+
+ fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
+ for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+ fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+ fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
+ }
+ }
+ fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+
+ fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+ fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
+ }
+ fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+ free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+ free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+ free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+ free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+ free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+ } /* End age */
+ free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240");
+ /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
+/* fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\" u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+/* fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+/* fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\" u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n
File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): %s\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability is computed over estepm=%d months.
\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
+ /* fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year
\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
+*/
+/* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
+
+ free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+ free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+ free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+ free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+ free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+ fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
+ fflush(ficgp);
+ fflush(fichtm);
+} /* end varevsij */
+
+/************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
+void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
+{
+ /* Variance of prevalence limit */
+ /* double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
+ double **newm;
+ double **dnewm,**doldm;
+ int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
+ int k, cptcode;
+ double *xp;
+ double *gp, *gm;
+ double **gradg, **trgradg;
+ double age,agelim;
+ int theta;
+
+ pstamp(ficresvpl);
+ fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
+ fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
+ fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
+
+ xp=vector(1,npar);
+ dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+ doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+
+ hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+ hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+ agelim = AGESUP;
+ for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+ nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+ if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
+ nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
+ gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+ gp=vector(1,nlstate);
+ gm=vector(1,nlstate);
+
+ for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+ for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
+ xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+ }
+ prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+ for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
+
+ for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
+ xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+ prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+ for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
+
+ for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
+ } /* End theta */
+
+ trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+
+ for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+ for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+ trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+
+ for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
+ matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+ matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+ for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
+
+ fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
+ fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
+ free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
+ free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
+ free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+ free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+ } /* End age */
+
+ free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+ free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+ free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+
+}
+
+/************ Variance of one-step probabilities ******************/
+void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
+{
+ int i, j=0, i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
+ int k2, l2, j1, z1;
+ int k=0,l, cptcode;
+ int first=1, first1, first2;
+ double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
+ double **dnewm,**doldm;
+ double *xp;
+ double *gp, *gm;
+ double **gradg, **trgradg;
+ double **mu;
+ double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
+ double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
+ int theta;
+ char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ double ***varpij;
+
+ strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");
+ strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+ if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+ }
+ strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");
+ strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
+ if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+ }
+ strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");
+ strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
+ if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+ }
+ printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+ printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+ printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+ pstamp(ficresprob);
+ fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
+ fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
+ pstamp(ficresprobcov);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
+ pstamp(ficresprobcor);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
+
+
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+ fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+ }
+ /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
+ */
+ xp=vector(1,npar);
+ dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+ doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+ mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
+ varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
+ first=1;
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals
Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)
Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities
\n\
+ file %s
\n",optionfilehtmcov);
+ fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p
\n");
+ fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
Contour plot corresponding to x'cov-1x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
+It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
+would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
+standard deviations wide on each axis.
\
+ Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
+ and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.
\
+To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.
\n");
+
+ cov[1]=1;
+ /* tj=cptcoveff; */
+ tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
+ if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+ j1=0;
+ for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){
+ /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ */
+ /*j1++;*/
+ if (cptcovn>0) {
+ fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");
+ for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+ fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");
+ for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
+
+ fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable ");
+ for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+ fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
+
+
+ fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n
********** Variable ");
+ for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+ fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n
");
+
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");
+ for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");
+ }
+
+ gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+ trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+ gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+ gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+ for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
+ cov[2]=age;
+ for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+ cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];/* j1 1 2 3 4
+ * 1 1 1 1 1
+ * 2 2 1 1 1
+ * 3 1 2 1 1
+ */
+ /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
+ }
+ for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+ for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+ cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+
+
+ for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+ for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+ xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
+
+ pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+
+ k=0;
+ for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
+ for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+ k=k+1;
+ gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+ }
+ }
+
+ for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+ xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
+
+ pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+ k=0;
+ for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
+ for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+ k=k+1;
+ gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+ }
+ }
+
+ for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)
+ gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];
+ }
+
+ for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+ for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+ trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+
+ matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+ matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
+
+ pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+
+ k=0;
+ for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
+ for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+ k=k+1;
+ mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
+ }
+ }
+ for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
+ for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+ varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
+
+ /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
+ for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
+ printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+ fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+ }*/
+
+ fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+
+ for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
+ fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
+ for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+ }
+ i=0;
+ for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
+ for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){
+ i++;
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
+ for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
+ /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
+ fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
+ fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
+ }
+ }
+ }/* end of loop for state */
+ } /* end of loop for age */
+ free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+ free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+ free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+ free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+
+ /* Confidence intervalle of pij */
+ /*
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability with confidence intervals expressed in year-1 :pijgr%s.png, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n
",optionfilefiname);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
+ */
+
+ /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
+ first1=1;first2=2;
+ for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
+ for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){
+ if(l2==k2) continue;
+ j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
+ for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
+ for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){
+ if(l1==k1) continue;
+ i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
+ if(i<=j) continue;
+ for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){
+ if ((int)age %5==0){
+ v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+ v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+ cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+ mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
+ mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
+ c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
+ /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
+ lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+ lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+ if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
+ if(first2==1){
+ first1=0;
+ printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
+ }
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
+ /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
+ /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
+ }
+
+ /* Eigen vectors */
+ v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
+ /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
+ v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
+ v12=-v21;
+ v22=v11;
+ tnalp=v21/v11;
+ if(first1==1){
+ first1=0;
+ printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+ }
+ fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+ /*printf(fignu*/
+ /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
+ /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
+ if(first==1){
+ first=0;
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240");
+ fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year-1\
+ :\
+%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
+ subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
+ subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+ fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+ fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n
Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+ mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+ mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+ }else{
+ first=0;
+ fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+ mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+ mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+ }/* if first */
+ } /* age mod 5 */
+ } /* end loop age */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+ first=1;
+ } /*l12 */
+ } /* k12 */
+ } /*l1 */
+ }/* k1 */
+ /* } /* loop covariates */
+ }
+ free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+ free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
+ free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+ free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+ free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+ fclose(ficresprob);
+ fclose(ficresprobcov);
+ fclose(ficresprobcor);
+ fflush(ficgp);
+ fflush(fichtmcov);
+}
+
+
+/******************* Printing html file ***********/
+void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
+ int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
+ int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
+ int popforecast, int estepm ,\
+ double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
+ double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
+ int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"");
+ fprintf(fichtm,"Result files (first order: no variance)
\n \
+ - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): %s
\n ",
+ jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: %s
\n ",
+ stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: %s
\n",
+ subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
+ %s
\n",
+ estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Population projections by age and states: \
+ %s
\n
");
+
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+\n
************ Results for covariates");
+ for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
+ fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
+ fprintf(fichtm," ************\n
");
+ }
+ /* Pij */
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d_1.png
\
+",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
+ /* Quasi-incidences */
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
+ before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d_2.png
\
+",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
+ /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
+ for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
- Convergence from each state (1 to %d) to period (stable) prevalence in state %d %s%d_%d.png
\
+",nlstate, cpt, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
+ }
+ for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n
- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) : %s%d%d.png
\
+",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
+ }
+ } /* end i1 */
+ }/* End k1 */
+ fprintf(fichtm," Result files (second order: variances)
\n\
+ - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: %s
\n", rfileres,rfileres);
+
+ fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: %s
\n",
+ subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: %s
\n",
+ subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: %s
\n",
+ subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and initial health status (cov(eij,ekl)(estepm=%2d months): \
+ %s
\n
\n
\n",
+ estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e.j with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): %s
\n",
+ estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\
+ - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: %s
\n",\
+ subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
+
+/* if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
+/* - Prevalences forecasting: f%s
\n */
+/* - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): pop%s
\n */
+/*
",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
+/* else */
+/* fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)
\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
+ fflush(fichtm);
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
");
+ fflush(fichtm);
+}
+
+/******************* Gnuplot file **************/
+void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+
+ char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
+ int m0,cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
+ int ng=0;
+/* if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
+/* printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
+/* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
+/* } */
+
+ /*#ifdef windows */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
+ /*#endif */
+ m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+
+ strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
+ strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
+ /* 1eme*/
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'vpl' files\n");
+ for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+ for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d_%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
+set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
+set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
+plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+ if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+ else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+ if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+ else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+ if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+ else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
+ }
+ }
+ /*2 eme*/
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
+ for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small size 320, 240\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
+
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
+ k=2*i;
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+ for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+ if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+ else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+ }
+ if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
+ else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+ for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+ if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+ else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+ for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+ if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+ else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+ }
+ if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
+ else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
+ }
+ }
+
+ /*3eme*/
+
+ for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+ for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+ /* k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
+ k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
+plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
+ /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+ fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+
+ */
+ for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
+ fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
+ /* fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
+
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
+ }
+ }
+
+ /* CV preval stable (period) */
+ for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
+ for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+ k=3;
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
+ fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
+set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
+unset log y\n\
+plot [%.f:%.f] ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+ for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
+ if(i==1)
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
+ else
+ fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+ l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
+ fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
+ for (j=1; j<= (nlstate-1) ; j ++)
+ fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j);
+ fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
+ } /* nlstate */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
+ } /* end cpt state*/
+ } /* end covariate */
+
+ /* proba elementaires */
+ for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+ for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+ if (k != i) {
+ for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+ fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
+ jk++;
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ /*goto avoid;*/
+ for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
+ for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng);
+ if (ng==2)
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
+ else
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240\nset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+ i=1;
+ for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
+ k3=i;
+ for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
+ if (k != k2){
+ if(ng==2)
+ fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
+ else
+ fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
+ ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
+ for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
+ /* if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) { /\* Bug valgrind *\/ */
+ /* /\*fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);*\/ */
+ /* ij++; */
+ /* } */
+ /* else */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
+
+ for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
+ fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
+ ij=1;
+ for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+ /* if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) { */
+ /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]); */
+ /* ij++; */
+ /* } */
+ /* else */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp,")");
+ }
+ fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+ if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
+ i=i+ncovmodel;
+ }
+ } /* end k */
+ } /* end k2 */
+ } /* end jk */
+ } /* end ng */
+ avoid:
+ fflush(ficgp);
+} /* end gnuplot */
+
+
+/*************** Moving average **************/
+int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
+
+ int i, cpt, cptcod;
+ int modcovmax =1;
+ int mobilavrange, mob;
+ double age;
+
+ modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose
+ a covariate has 2 modalities */
+ if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
+
+ if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
+ if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
+ else mobilavrange=mobilav;
+ for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
+ for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
+ mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+ /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for
+ fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
+ we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned.
+ */
+ for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
+ for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
+ for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+ for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
+ mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+ for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
+ mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
+ mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
+ }
+ mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
+ }
+ }
+ }/* end age */
+ }/* end mob */
+ }else return -1;
+ return 0;
+}/* End movingaverage */
+
+
+/************** Forecasting ******************/
+prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
+ /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection
+ agemin, agemax range of age
+ dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
+ anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
+ */
+ int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
+ int *popage;
+ double agec; /* generic age */
+ double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
+ double *popeffectif,*popcount;
+ double ***p3mat;
+ double ***mobaverage;
+ char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+ agelim=AGESUP;
+ prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+
+ strcpy(fileresf,"f");
+ strcat(fileresf,fileres);
+ if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+ }
+ printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+
+ if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+
+ if (mobilav!=0) {
+ mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+ if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+ fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+ printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+ }
+ }
+
+ stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+ if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
+ if(estepm < stepm){
+ printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+ }
+ else hstepm=estepm;
+
+ hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
+ yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp and
+ fractional in yp1 */
+ anprojmean=yp;
+ yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
+ mprojmean=yp;
+ yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
+ jprojmean=yp;
+ if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+ if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+
+ i1=cptcoveff;
+ if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+
+ fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
+
+ fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
+
+/* if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
+ for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+ for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
+ k=k+1;
+ fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
+ for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+ fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+ }
+ fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
+ fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
+ for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+ fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
+ fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
+ }
+ for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
+ fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+ fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
+
+ for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
+ nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
+ nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+ p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+ oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+ hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+
+ for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+ if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
+ fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+ for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+ fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+ fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+ }
+ for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+ ppij=0.;
+ for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
+ if (mobilav==1)
+ ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
+ else {
+ ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
+ }
+ if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
+ fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+ }
+ } /* end i */
+ if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
+ fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
+ }
+ }/* end j */
+ } /* end h */
+ free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+ } /* end agec */
+ } /* end yearp */
+ } /* end cptcod */
+ } /* end cptcov */
+
+ if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+
+ fclose(ficresf);
+}
+
+/************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
+populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
+
+ int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
+ int *popage;
+ double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
+ double *popeffectif,*popcount;
+ double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
+ double ***mobaverage;
+ char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+ tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+ tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+ agelim=AGESUP;
+ calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
+
+ prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+
+
+ strcpy(filerespop,"pop");
+ strcat(filerespop,fileres);
+ if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
+ }
+ printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
+
+ if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+
+ if (mobilav!=0) {
+ mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+ if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+ fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+ printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+ }
+ }
+
+ stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+ if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
+
+ agelim=AGESUP;
+
+ hstepm=1;
+ hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
+
+ if (popforecast==1) {
+ if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
+ }
+ popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
+ popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
+ popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
+
+ i=1;
+ while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
+
+ imx=i;
+ for (i=1; i
************ Results for covariates");
+ for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)
+ fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
+ fprintf(fichtm," ************\n
");
+ }
+ for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
+prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.png
\
+",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);
+ }
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n
- Total life expectancy by age and \
+health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
+true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
+ drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
+ observed and cahotic prevalences: %s%d.png
\
+",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
+ } /* end i1 */
+ }/* End k1 */
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
");
+
+fprintf(fichtm,"Result files
\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):
");
+ fprintf(fichtm," mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year
",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
+ for (i=1;i<=2;i++)
+ fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]
\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
+ fprintf(fichtm,"
");
+ fprintf(fichtm,"Life table
\n
");
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge l
");
+
+ for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++)
+ fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf
\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
+
+
+ fflush(fichtm);
+}
+
+/******************* Gnuplot file **************/
+void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+
+ char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
+ int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
+ int ng;
+
+
+ /*#ifdef windows */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
+ /*#endif */
+
+
+ strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
+ strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n ");
+ fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n ");
+ fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small size 320, 240\n set log y\n");
+ /* fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n"); */
+ fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
+
+}
+
+int readdata(char datafile[], int firstobs, int lastobs, int *imax)
+{
+
+ /*-------- data file ----------*/
+ FILE *fic;
+ char dummy[]=" ";
+ int i, j, n;
+ int linei, month, year,iout;
+ char line[MAXLINE], linetmp[MAXLINE];
+ char stra[80], strb[80];
+ char *stratrunc;
+ int lstra;
+
+
+ if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
+ }
+
+ i=1;
+ linei=0;
+ while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
+ linei=linei+1;
+ for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){ /* Untabifies line */
+ if(line[j] == '\t')
+ line[j] = ' ';
+ }
+ for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
+ ;
+ };
+ line[j+1]=0; /* Trims blanks at end of line */
+ if(line[0]=='#'){
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
+ printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
+ continue;
+ }
+ trimbb(linetmp,line); /* Trims multiple blanks in line */
+ for (j=0; line[j]!='\0';j++){
+ line[j]=linetmp[j];
+ }
+
+
+ for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
+ cutv(stra, strb, line, ' ');
+ if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
+ lval=-1;
+ }else{
+ errno=0;
+ lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+ /* if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
+ if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+ printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong. Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong. Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ }
+ s[j][i]=lval;
+
+ strcpy(line,stra);
+ cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+ if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
+ }
+ else if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
+ month=99;
+ year=9999;
+ }else{
+ printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ anint[j][i]= (double) year;
+ mint[j][i]= (double)month;
+ strcpy(line,stra);
+ } /* ENd Waves */
+
+ cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+ if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
+ }
+ else if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
+ month=99;
+ year=9999;
+ }else{
+ printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ andc[i]=(double) year;
+ moisdc[i]=(double) month;
+ strcpy(line,stra);
+
+ cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+ if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
+ }
+ else if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.", dummy) != 0){
+ month=99;
+ year=9999;
+ }else{
+ printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .). Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ if (year==9999) {
+ printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+
+ }
+ annais[i]=(double)(year);
+ moisnais[i]=(double)(month);
+ strcpy(line,stra);
+
+ cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+ errno=0;
+ dval=strtod(strb,&endptr);
+ if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+ printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight. Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight. Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
+ fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ weight[i]=dval;
+ strcpy(line,stra);
+
+ for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
+ cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
+ if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
+ lval=-1;
+ }else{
+ errno=0;
+ lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10);
+ if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
+ printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative). Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative). Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ }
+ if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
+ printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
+ Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
+ for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
+ For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
+ build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
+ V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
+ and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
+ output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
+ Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
+ Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
+ for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
+ For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
+ build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
+ V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
+ and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
+ output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
+ Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
+ strcpy(line,stra);
+ }
+ lstra=strlen(stra);
+
+ if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
+ stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
+ num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
+ }
+ else
+ num[i]=atol(stra);
+ /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
+ printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]), (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]), (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]), (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
+
+ i=i+1;
+ } /* End loop reading data */
+
+ *imax=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
+ fclose(fic);
+
+ return (0);
+ endread:
+ printf("Exiting readdata: ");
+ fclose(fic);
+ return (1);
+
+
+
+}
+void removespace(char *str) {
+ char *p1 = str, *p2 = str;
+ do
+ while (*p2 == ' ')
+ p2++;
+ while (*p1++ = *p2++);
+}
+
+int decodemodel ( char model[], int lastobs) /**< This routine decode the model and returns:
+ * Model V1+V2+V3+V8+V7*V8+V5*V6+V8*age+V3*age
+ * - cptcovt total number of covariates of the model nbocc(+)+1 = 8
+ * - cptcovn or number of covariates k of the models excluding age*products =6
+ * - cptcovage number of covariates with age*products =2
+ * - cptcovs number of simple covariates
+ * - Tvar[k] is the id of the kth covariate Tvar[1]@12 {1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 8, 3, 7, 8, 5, 6}, thus Tvar[5=V7*V8]=10
+ * which is a new column after the 9 (ncovcol) variables.
+ * - if k is a product Vn*Vm covar[k][i] is filled with correct values for each individual
+ * - Tprod[l] gives the kth covariates of the product Vn*Vm l=1 to cptcovprod-cptcovage
+ * Tprod[1]@2 {5, 6}: position of first product V7*V8 is 5, and second V5*V6 is 6.
+ * - Tvard[k] p Tvard[1][1]@4 {7, 8, 5, 6} for V7*V8 and V5*V6 .
+ */
+{
+ int i, j, k, ks;
+ int i1, j1, k1, k2;
+ char modelsav[80];
+ char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80];
+
+ /*removespace(model);*/
+ if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
+ j=0, j1=0, k1=0, k2=-1, ks=0, cptcovn=0;
+ j=nbocc(model,'+'); /**< j=Number of '+' */
+ j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /**< j1=Number of '*' */
+ cptcovs=j+1-j1; /**< Number of simple covariates V1+V2*age+V3 +V3*V4=> V1 + V3 =2 */
+ cptcovt= j+1; /* Number of total covariates in the model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4=> 4*/
+ /* including age products which are counted in cptcovage.
+ /* but the covariates which are products must be treated separately: ncovn=4- 2=2 (V1+V3). */
+ cptcovprod=j1; /**< Number of products V1*V2 +v3*age = 2 */
+ cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age: V3*V4 =1 */
+ strcpy(modelsav,model);
+ if (strstr(model,"AGE") !=0){
+ printf("Error. AGE must be in lower case 'age' model=%s ",model);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error. AGE must be in lower case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ if (strstr(model,"v") !=0){
+ printf("Error. 'v' must be in upper case 'V' model=%s ",model);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error. 'v' must be in upper case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
+ return 1;
+ }
+
+ /* Design
+ * V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 V9 Weight
+ * < ncovcol=8 >
+ * Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8
+ * k= 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
+ * cptcovn number of covariates (not including constant and age ) = # of + plus 1 = 7+1=8
+ * covar[k,i], value of kth covariate if not including age for individual i:
+ * covar[1][i]= (V2), covar[4][i]=(V3), covar[8][i]=(V8)
+ * Tvar[k] # of the kth covariate: Tvar[1]=2 Tvar[4]=3 Tvar[8]=8
+ * if multiplied by age: V3*age Tvar[3=V3*age]=3 (V3) Tvar[7]=8 and
+ * Tage[++cptcovage]=k
+ * if products, new covar are created after ncovcol with k1
+ * Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; # of the kth covariate product: Tvar[5]=ncovcol+1=10 Tvar[6]=ncovcol+1=11
+ * Tprod[k1]=k; Tprod[1]=5 Tprod[2]= 6; gives the position of the k1th product
+ * Tvard[k1][1]=m Tvard[k1][2]=m; Tvard[1][1]=5 (V5) Tvard[1][2]=6 Tvard[2][1]=7 (V7) Tvard[2][2]=8
+ * Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
+ * Tvar[8+1]=5;Tvar[8+2]=6;Tvar[8+3]=7;Tvar[8+4]=8 inverted
+ * V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 V9 V10 V11
+ * < ncovcol=8 >
+ * Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8 d1 d1 d2 d2
+ * k= 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
+ * Tvar[k]= 2 1 3 3 10 11 8 8 5 6 7 8
+ * p Tvar[1]@12={2, 1, 3, 3, 11, 10, 8, 8, 7, 8, 5, 6}
+ * p Tprod[1]@2={ 6, 5}
+ *p Tvard[1][1]@4= {7, 8, 5, 6}
+ * covar[k][i]= V2 V1 ? V3 V5*V6? V7*V8? ? V8
+ * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+ *How to reorganize?
+ * Model V1 + V2 + V3 + V8 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V3*age + V8*age
+ * Tvars {2, 1, 3, 3, 11, 10, 8, 8, 7, 8, 5, 6}
+ * {2, 1, 4, 8, 5, 6, 3, 7}
+ * Struct []
+ */
+
+ /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
+ /* j is the number of + signs in the model V1+V2+V3 j=2 i=3 to 1 */
+ /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4 */
+ /* k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tage[cptcovage=1]=4 */
+ /* k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4) */
+ /* k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1) */
+ /* k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2) */
+ /* k=5 Tvar[5] */
+ /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) { */
+ /* cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]]; */
+ /* } */
+ /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+ /*
+ * Treating invertedly V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is as if written V2*V4 +V3*age + V1 + V2 */
+ for(k=cptcovt; k>=1;k--) /**< Number of covariates */
+ Tvar[k]=0;
+ cptcovage=0;
+ for(k=1; k<=cptcovt;k++){ /* Loop on total covariates of the model */
+ cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+'
+ modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */
+ if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
+ /* printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
+ /*scanf("%d",i);*/
+ if (strchr(strb,'*')) { /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
+ cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
+ if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
+ /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
+ cptcovprod--;
+ cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
+ Tvar[k]=atoi(stre); /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2 */
+ cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
+ Tage[cptcovage]=k; /* Tage[1] = 4 */
+ /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
+ } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
+ cptcovprod--;
+ cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
+ Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
+ cptcovage++;
+ Tage[cptcovage]=k;
+ } else { /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2 strb=V3*V2*/
+ /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
+ cptcovn++;
+ cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
+ cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
+ Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
+ because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
+ ncovcol + k1
+ If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
+ Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
+ cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
+ Tprod[k1]=k; /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2 */
+ Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
+ Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
+ k2=k2+2;
+ Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
+ Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
+ for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
+ /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
+ covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
+ covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
+ }
+ } /* End age is not in the model */
+ } /* End if model includes a product */
+ else { /* no more sum */
+ /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
+ /* scanf("%d",i);*/
+ cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
+ ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
+ cptcovn++;
+ Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
+ }
+ strcpy(modelsav,stra); /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */
+ /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
+ scanf("%d",i);*/
+ } /* end of loop + */
+ } /* end model */
+
+ /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
+ If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
+
+ /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
+ printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
+
+ scanf("%d ",i);*/
+
+
+ return (0); /* with covar[new additional covariate if product] and Tage if age */
+ endread:
+ printf("Exiting decodemodel: ");
+ return (1);
+}
+
+calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
+{
+ int i, m;
+
+ for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+ for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
+ if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
+ anint[m][i]=9999;
+ s[m][i]=-1;
+ }
+ if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
+ *nberr++;
+ printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
+ s[m][i]=-1;
+ }
+ if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
+ *nberr++;
+ printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]);
+ s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
+ }
+ }
+ }
+
+ for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+ agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
+ for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
+ if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
+ if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
+ if(agedc[i]>0)
+ if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
+ agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
+ /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
+ else {
+ if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
+ nbwarn++;
+ printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
+ agev[m][i]=-1;
+ }
+ }
+ }
+ else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
+ years but with the precision of a month */
+ agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
+ if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
+ agev[m][i]=1;
+ else if(agev[m][i] < *agemin){
+ *agemin=agev[m][i];
+ printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemin);
+ }
+ else if(agev[m][i] >*agemax){
+ *agemax=agev[m][i];
+ /* printf(" Max anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemax);*/
+ }
+ /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
+ /* agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
+ }
+ else { /* =9 */
+ agev[m][i]=1;
+ s[m][i]=-1;
+ }
+ }
+ else /*= 0 Unknown */
+ agev[m][i]=1;
+ }
+
+ }
+ for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+ for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
+ if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
+ *nberr++;
+ printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);
+ return 1;
+ }
+ }
+ }
+
+ /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+ for (m=firstpass; (m
%s \
+
\n\
+Title=%s
Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s
\n",\
+ optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
+ }
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n
%s \
+
\n\
+Title=%s
Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s
\n\
+\n\
+
\
+
\n",\
+ optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
+ optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
+ fileres,fileres,\
+ filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
+ fflush(fichtm);
+
+ strcpy(pathr,path);
+ strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
+ chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
+
+ /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
+ and prints on file fileres'p'. */
+ freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
+ fprintf(fichtm,"Parameter files
\n\
+ - Parameter file: %s.%s
\n\
+ - Copy of the parameter file: o%s
\n\
+ - Log file of the run: %s
\n\
+ - Gnuplot file name: %s
\n\
+ - Date and time at start: %s
Total number of observations=%d
\n\
+Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f
\n\
+Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf
\n",\
+ imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
+ pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+ oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+ newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+ savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+ oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+
+
+ /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
+ so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
+ p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
+
+ globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
+
+ if (mle==-3){
+ ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
+/* ximort=gsl_matrix_alloc(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); */
+ cens=ivector(1,n);
+ ageexmed=vector(1,n);
+ agecens=vector(1,n);
+ dcwave=ivector(1,n);
+
+ for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+ dcwave[i]=-1;
+ for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
+ if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
+ dcwave[i]=m;
+ /* printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
+ break;
+ }
+ }
+
+ for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+ if (wav[i]>0){
+ ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
+ j=wav[i];
+ agecens[i]=1.;
+
+ if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
+ agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
+ cens[i]= 1;
+ }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
+ cens[i]= -1;
+ if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
+ cens[i]=0 ;
+ }
+ else cens[i]=-1;
+ }
+
+ for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
+ for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
+ ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+ }
+
+ /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
+ /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
+
+
+#ifdef GSL
+ printf("GSL optimization\n"); fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+#elsedef
+ printf("Powell\n"); fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+#endif
+ strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort");
+ strcat(filerespow,fileres);
+ if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
+ printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
+ }
+#ifdef GSL
+ fprintf(ficrespow,"# GSL optimization\n# iter -2*LL");
+#elsedef
+ fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
+#endif
+ /* for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+ for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+ if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
+ */
+ fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
+#ifdef GSL
+ /* gsl starts here */
+ T = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_nmsimplex;
+ gsl_multimin_fminimizer *sfm = NULL;
+ gsl_vector *ss, *x;
+ gsl_multimin_function minex_func;
+
+ /* Initial vertex size vector */
+ ss = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
+
+ if (ss == NULL){
+ GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for ss", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
+ }
+ /* Set all step sizes to 1 */
+ gsl_vector_set_all (ss, 0.001);
+
+ /* Starting point */
+
+ x = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
+
+ if (x == NULL){
+ gsl_vector_free(ss);
+ GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for x", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
+ }
+
+ /* Initialize method and iterate */
+ /* p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083; */
+/* gsl_vector_set(x, 0, 0.0268); */
+/* gsl_vector_set(x, 1, 0.083); */
+ gsl_vector_set(x, 0, p[1]);
+ gsl_vector_set(x, 1, p[2]);
+
+ minex_func.f = &gompertz_f;
+ minex_func.n = NDIM;
+ minex_func.params = (void *)&p; /* ??? */
+
+ sfm = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_alloc (T, NDIM);
+ gsl_multimin_fminimizer_set (sfm, &minex_func, x, ss);
+
+ printf("Iterations beginning .....\n\n");
+ printf("Iter. # Intercept Slope -Log Likelihood Simplex size\n");
+
+ iteri=0;
+ while (rval == GSL_CONTINUE){
+ iteri++;
+ status = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_iterate(sfm);
+
+ if (status) printf("error: %s\n", gsl_strerror (status));
+ fflush(0);
+
+ if (status)
+ break;
+
+ rval = gsl_multimin_test_size (gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm), 1e-6);
+ ssval = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm);
+
+ if (rval == GSL_SUCCESS)
+ printf ("converged to a local maximum at\n");
+
+ printf("%5d ", iteri);
+ for (it = 0; it < NDIM; it++){
+ printf ("%10.5f ", gsl_vector_get (sfm->x, it));
+ }
+ printf("f() = %-10.5f ssize = %.7f\n", sfm->fval, ssval);
+ }
+
+ printf("\n\n Please note: Program should be run many times with varying starting points to detemine global maximum\n\n");
+
+ gsl_vector_free(x); /* initial values */
+ gsl_vector_free(ss); /* inital step size */
+ for (it=0; it
Local time at start %s
Local time at end %s
\n",strstart, strtend);
+ fclose(fichtm);
+ fprintf(fichtmcov,"
Local time at start %s
Local time at end %s
\n",strstart, strtend);
+ fclose(fichtmcov);
+ fclose(ficgp);
+ fclose(ficlog);
+ /*------ End -----------*/
+
+
+ printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+ if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
+ printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
+ if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
+ printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
+ /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
+ sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
+#ifdef _WIN32
+ sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
+#endif
+ if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
+ printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+ if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
+ printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s' Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+ }else
+ strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+#ifdef __unix
+ strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
+ if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
+ printf("Error gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+ }else
+ strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+#endif
+ }else
+ strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
+
+ sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
+ printf("Starting graphs with: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+
+ if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
+ printf("gnuplot command might not be in your path: '%s', err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
+ printf("\n Trying if gnuplot resides on the same directory that IMaCh\n");
+ sprintf(plotcmd,"%sgnuplot %s", pathimach, optionfilegnuplot);
+ if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0)
+ printf("\n Still a problem with gnuplot command %s, err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
+ }
+ printf(" Successful, please wait...");
+ while (z[0] != 'q') {
+ /* chdir(path); */
+ printf("\nType e to edit results with your browser, g to graph again and q for exit: ");
+ scanf("%s",z);
+/* if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
+ if (z[0] == 'e') {
+#ifdef __APPLE__
+ sprintf(pplotcmd, "open %s", optionfilehtm);
+#elif __linux
+ sprintf(pplotcmd, "xdg-open %s", optionfilehtm);
+#else
+ sprintf(pplotcmd, "%s", optionfilehtm);
+#endif
+ printf("Starting browser with: %s",pplotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+ system(pplotcmd);
+ }
+ else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
+ else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
+ }
+ end:
+ while (z[0] != 'q') {
+ printf("\nType q for exiting: ");
+ scanf("%s",z);
+ }
+}