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version 1.5, 2002/03/04 10:01:45
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version 1.9, 2002/03/11 15:24:05
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<title>Computing Health Expectancies using IMaCh</title>
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<head>
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<meta http-equiv="Content-Type"
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content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage Express 2.0">
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<title></title>
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</head>
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| <body bgcolor="#FFFFFF" link="#0000FF" vlink="#0000FF" lang="FR"
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<body bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
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<hr size="3" color="#EC5E5E">
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<h1 align="center"><font color="#00006A">Computing Health
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| |
Expectancies using IMaCh</font></h1>
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| |
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| |
<h1 align="center"><font color="#00006A" size="5">(a Maximum
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| |
Likelihood Computer Program using Interpolation of Markov Chains)</font></h1>
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<p align="center"> </p>
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| <hr size="3" noshade color="#EC5E5E">
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<p align="center"><a href="http://www.ined.fr/"><img
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| |
src="logo-ined.gif" border="0" width="151" height="76"></a><img
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src="euroreves2.gif" width="151" height="75"></p>
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|
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| <h1 align="center" style="text-align:center"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;
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<h3 align="center"><a href="http://www.ined.fr/"><font
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| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing Health
|
color="#00006A">INED</font></a><font color="#00006A"> and </font><a
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| Expectancies using IMaCh</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
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href="http://euroreves.ined.fr"><font color="#00006A">EUROREVES</font></a></h3>
|
|
|
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| <h1 align="center" style="text-align:center"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:
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| 18.0pt;color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">(a Maximum
|
|
| Likelihood Computer Program using Interpolation of Markov Chains)</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
|
|
|
|
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| <p align="center" style="text-align:center"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
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| EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
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| <p align="center" style="text-align:center"><a
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| href="http://www.ined.fr/"><span style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none"><img src="logo-ined.gif" border="0"
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| width="151" height="76" id="_x0000_i1026"></span></a><img
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| src="euroreves2.gif" width="151" height="75" id="_x0000_i1027"></p>
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| <h3 align="center" style="text-align:center"><a
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| href="http://www.ined.fr/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">INED</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> and </span><a
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|
| href="http://euroreves.ined.fr"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;
|
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">EUROREVES</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h3>
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|
|
|
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| <p align="center" style="text-align:center"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:13.5pt;color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Version 0.7,
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| February 2002</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p>
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|
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| <hr size="3" noshade color="#EC5E5E">
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| <p align="center" style="text-align:center"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Authors of
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|
| the program: </span></strong><a href="http://sauvy.ined.fr/brouard"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;
|
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Nicolas
|
|
| Brouard</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong></a><strong>, senior researcher at the </span></strong><a
|
|
| href="http://www.ined.fr"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Institut National d'Etudes
|
|
| Démographiques</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;
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|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong></a><strong> (INED, Paris) in the
|
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| "Mortality, Health and Epidemiology" Research Unit </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p>
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|
|
|
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| <p align="center" style="text-align:center"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">and Agnès
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| Lièvre</span></strong><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><br clear="left"
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| style="mso-special-character:line-break">
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| </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
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|
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| <h4><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Contribution to the mathematics: C. R. Heathcote </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:
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|
| 10.0pt;color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">(Australian
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| National University, Canberra).</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
|
|
|
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| <h4><span style="color:#00006A">Contact: Agnès Lièvre (</span><a href="mailto:lievre@ined.fr"><i><span style="color:#00006A">lievre@ined.fr</span><span style="color:#00006A"></i></a>)
|
<p align="center"><font color="#00006A" size="4"><strong>Version
|
| </span></h4>
|
0.71a, March 2002</strong></font></p>
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| |
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| |
<hr size="3" color="#EC5E5E">
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| |
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<p align="center"><font color="#00006A"><strong>Authors of the
|
| |
program: </strong></font><a href="http://sauvy.ined.fr/brouard"><font
|
| |
color="#00006A"><strong>Nicolas Brouard</strong></font></a><font
|
| |
color="#00006A"><strong>, senior researcher at the </strong></font><a
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| |
href="http://www.ined.fr"><font color="#00006A"><strong>Institut
|
| |
National d'Etudes Démographiques</strong></font></a><font
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| |
color="#00006A"><strong> (INED, Paris) in the "Mortality,
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| |
Health and Epidemiology" Research Unit </strong></font></p>
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| |
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<p align="center"><font color="#00006A"><strong>and Agnès
|
| |
Lièvre<br clear="left">
|
| |
</strong></font></p>
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| |
|
| |
<h4><font color="#00006A">Contribution to the mathematics: C. R.
|
| |
Heathcote </font><font color="#00006A" size="2">(Australian
|
| |
National University, Canberra).</font></h4>
|
| |
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| |
<h4><font color="#00006A">Contact: Agnès Lièvre (</font><a
|
| |
href="mailto:lievre@ined.fr"><font color="#00006A"><i>lievre@ined.fr</i></font></a><font
|
| |
color="#00006A">) </font></h4>
|
|
|
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| <hr>
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<hr>
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| <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family:
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| "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:FR;mso-bidi-language:
|
<ul>
|
| AR-SA">
|
<li><a href="#intro">Introduction</a> </li>
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<li><a href="#data">On what kind of data can it be used?</a></li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><a href="#datafile">The data file</a> </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><a href="#biaspar">The parameter file</a> </li>
|
| mso-list:l17 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
<li><a href="#running">Running Imach</a> </li>
|
| href="#intro"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Introduction</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
|
<li><a href="#output">Output files and graphs</a> </li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><a href="#example">Exemple</a> </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l17 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
|
| href="#data"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">On what kind of data can it be used?</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l17 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
|
| href="#datafile"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The data file</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l17 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
|
| href="#biaspar"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The parameter file</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l17 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
|
| href="#running"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Running Imach</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l17 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
|
| href="#output"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Output files and graphs</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l17 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
|
| href="#example">Exemple</a> </li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
| </span>
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <h2><a name="intro"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Introduction</span><span style="mso-bookmark:intro"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
<h2><a name="intro"><font color="#00006A">Introduction</font></a></h2>
|
| EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h2>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This program computes <b>Healthy
|
<p>This program computes <b>Healthy Life Expectancies</b> from <b>cross-longitudinal
|
| Life Expectancies</b> from <b>cross-longitudinal data</b> using
|
data</b> using the methodology pioneered by Laditka and Wolf (1).
|
| the methodology pioneered by Laditka and Wolf (1). Within the
|
Within the family of Health Expectancies (HE), Disability-free
|
| family of Health Expectancies (HE), Disability-free life
|
life expectancy (DFLE) is probably the most important index to
|
| expectancy (DFLE) is probably the most important index to
|
|
| monitor. In low mortality countries, there is a fear that when
|
monitor. In low mortality countries, there is a fear that when
|
| mortality declines, the increase in DFLE is not proportionate to
|
mortality declines, the increase in DFLE is not proportionate to
|
| the increase in total Life expectancy. This case is called the <em>Expansion
|
the increase in total Life expectancy. This case is called the <em>Expansion
|
| of morbidity</em>. Most of the data collected today, in
|
of morbidity</em>. Most of the data collected today, in
|
| particular by the international </span><a href="http://euroreves/reves"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">REVES</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>
|
particular by the international <a href="http://www.reves.org">REVES</a>
|
| network on Health expectancy, and most HE indices based on these
|
network on Health expectancy, and most HE indices based on these
|
| data, are <em>cross-sectional</em>. It means that the information
|
data, are <em>cross-sectional</em>. It means that the information
|
| collected comes from a single cross-sectional survey: people from
|
collected comes from a single cross-sectional survey: people from
|
|
Line 511 population. Life expectancy (LE) (or tot
|
Line 101 population. Life expectancy (LE) (or tot
|
| the yearly number of births or deaths of this stationary
|
the yearly number of births or deaths of this stationary
|
| population) is then decomposed into DFLE and DLE. This method of
|
population) is then decomposed into DFLE and DLE. This method of
|
| computing HE is usually called the Sullivan method (from the name
|
computing HE is usually called the Sullivan method (from the name
|
| of the author who first described it).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
of the author who first described it).</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Age-specific proportions of people
|
<p>Age-specific proportions of people disable are very difficult
|
| disable are very difficult to forecast because each proportion
|
to forecast because each proportion corresponds to historical
|
| corresponds to historical conditions of the cohort and it is the
|
conditions of the cohort and it is the result of the historical
|
| result of the historical flows from entering disability and
|
flows from entering disability and recovering in the past until
|
| recovering in the past until today. The age-specific intensities
|
today. The age-specific intensities (or incidence rates) of
|
| (or incidence rates) of entering disability or recovering a good
|
entering disability or recovering a good health, are reflecting
|
| health, are reflecting actual conditions and therefore can be
|
actual conditions and therefore can be used at each age to
|
| used at each age to forecast the future of this cohort. For
|
forecast the future of this cohort. For example if a country is
|
| example if a country is improving its technology of prosthesis,
|
improving its technology of prosthesis, the incidence of
|
| the incidence of recovering the ability to walk will be higher at
|
recovering the ability to walk will be higher at each (old) age,
|
| each (old) age, but the prevalence of disability will only
|
but the prevalence of disability will only slightly reflect an
|
| slightly reflect an improve because the prevalence is mostly
|
improve because the prevalence is mostly affected by the history
|
| affected by the history of the cohort and not by recent period
|
of the cohort and not by recent period effects. To measure the
|
| effects. To measure the period improvement we have to simulate
|
period improvement we have to simulate the future of a cohort of
|
| the future of a cohort of new-borns entering or leaving at each
|
new-borns entering or leaving at each age the disability state or
|
| age the disability state or dying according to the incidence
|
dying according to the incidence rates measured today on
|
| rates measured today on different cohorts. The proportion of
|
different cohorts. The proportion of people disabled at each age
|
| people disabled at each age in this simulated cohort will be much
|
in this simulated cohort will be much lower (using the exemple of
|
| lower (using the example of an improvement) that the proportions
|
an improvement) that the proportions observed at each age in a
|
| observed at each age in a cross-sectional survey. This new
|
cross-sectional survey. This new prevalence curve introduced in a
|
| prevalence curve introduced in a life table will give a much more
|
life table will give a much more actual and realistic HE level
|
| actual and realistic HE level than the Sullivan method which
|
than the Sullivan method which mostly measured the History of
|
| mostly measured the History of health conditions in this country.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
health conditions in this country.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Therefore, the main question is how
|
<p>Therefore, the main question is how to measure incidence rates
|
| to measure incidence rates from cross-longitudinal surveys? This
|
from cross-longitudinal surveys? This is the goal of the IMaCH
|
| is the goal of the IMaCH program. From your data and using IMaCH
|
program. From your data and using IMaCH you can estimate period
|
| you can estimate period HE and not only Sullivan's HE. Also the
|
HE and not only Sullivan's HE. Also the standard errors of the HE
|
| standard errors of the HE are computed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
are computed.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">A cross-longitudinal survey
|
<p>A cross-longitudinal survey consists in a first survey
|
| consists in a first survey ("cross") where individuals
|
("cross") where individuals from different ages are
|
| from different ages are interviewed on their health status or
|
interviewed on their health status or degree of disability. At
|
| degree of disability. At least a second wave of interviews
|
least a second wave of interviews ("longitudinal")
|
| ("longitudinal") should measure each new individual
|
should measure each new individual health status. Health
|
| health status. Health expectancies are computed from the
|
expectancies are computed from the transitions observed between
|
| transitions observed between waves and are computed for each
|
waves and are computed for each degree of severity of disability
|
| degree of severity of disability (number of life states). More
|
(number of life states). More degrees you consider, more time is
|
| degrees you consider, more time is necessary to reach the Maximum
|
necessary to reach the Maximum Likelihood of the parameters
|
| Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model. Considering
|
involved in the model. Considering only two states of disability
|
| only two states of disability (disable and healthy) is generally
|
(disable and healthy) is generally enough but the computer
|
| enough but the computer program works also with more health
|
program works also with more health statuses.<br>
|
| statuses.<span style="mso-spacerun:
|
|
| yes"> </span><br>
|
|
| <br>
|
<br>
|
| The simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where <i>pij</i>
|
The simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where <i>pij</i>
|
| is the probability to be observed in state <i>j</i> at the second
|
is the probability to be observed in state <i>j</i> at the second
|
|
Line 576 month or quarter trimester, semester or
|
Line 164 month or quarter trimester, semester or
|
| multinomial logistic. The <i>hPx</i> matrix is simply the matrix
|
multinomial logistic. The <i>hPx</i> matrix is simply the matrix
|
| product of <i>nh*stepm</i> elementary matrices and the
|
product of <i>nh*stepm</i> elementary matrices and the
|
| contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply <i>hPijx</i>.
|
contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply <i>hPijx</i>.
|
| <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
<br>
|
| |
</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The program presented in this
|
<p>The program presented in this manual is a quite general
|
| manual is a quite general program named <strong>IMaCh</strong>
|
program named <strong>IMaCh</strong> (for <strong>I</strong>nterpolated
|
| (for <strong>I</strong>nterpolated <strong>MA</strong>rkov <strong>CH</strong>ain),
|
<strong>MA</strong>rkov <strong>CH</strong>ain), designed to
|
| designed to analyse transition data from longitudinal surveys.
|
analyse transition data from longitudinal surveys. The first step
|
| The first step is the parameters estimation of a transition
|
is the parameters estimation of a transition probabilities model
|
| probabilities model between an initial status and a final status.
|
between an initial status and a final status. From there, the
|
| From there, the computer program produces some indicators such as
|
computer program produces some indicators such as observed and
|
| observed and stationary prevalence, life expectancies and their
|
stationary prevalence, life expectancies and their variances and
|
| variances and graphs. Our transition model consists in absorbing
|
graphs. Our transition model consists in absorbing and
|
| and non-absorbing states with the possibility of return across
|
non-absorbing states with the possibility of return across the
|
| the non-absorbing states. The main advantage of this package,
|
non-absorbing states. The main advantage of this package,
|
| compared to other programs for the analysis of transition data
|
compared to other programs for the analysis of transition data
|
| (For example: Proc Catmod of SAS<sup>(r)</sup>) is that the whole
|
(For example: Proc Catmod of SAS<sup>®</sup>) is that the whole
|
| individual information is used even if an interview is missing, a
|
individual information is used even if an interview is missing, a
|
| status or a date is unknown or when the delay between waves is
|
status or a date is unknown or when the delay between waves is
|
| not identical for each individual. The program can be executed
|
not identical for each individual. The program can be executed
|
|
Line 600 account (the user inputs the first and t
|
Line 189 account (the user inputs the first and t
|
| tolerance level for the maximization function, the periodicity of
|
tolerance level for the maximization function, the periodicity of
|
| the transitions (we can compute annual, quarterly or monthly
|
the transitions (we can compute annual, quarterly or monthly
|
| transitions), covariates in the model. It works on Windows or on
|
transitions), covariates in the model. It works on Windows or on
|
| Unix.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
Unix.<br>
|
| |
</p>
|
|
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <p><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">(1) Laditka, Sarah B. and Wolf, Douglas A. (1998), "New
|
<p>(1) Laditka, Sarah B. and Wolf, Douglas A. (1998), "New
|
| Methods for Analyzing Active Life Expectancy". <i>Journal of
|
Methods for Analyzing Active Life Expectancy". <i>Journal of
|
| Aging and Health</i>. </span>Vol 10, No. 2. </p>
|
Aging and Health</i>. Vol 10, No. 2. </p>
|
|
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <h2><a name="data"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">On what kind of data can it be used?</span><span style="mso-bookmark:data"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h2>
|
<h2><a name="data"><font color="#00006A">On what kind of data can
|
| |
it be used?</font></a></h2>
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The minimum data required for a
|
<p>The minimum data required for a transition model is the
|
| transition model is the recording of a set of individuals
|
recording of a set of individuals interviewed at a first date and
|
| interviewed at a first date and interviewed again at least one
|
interviewed again at least one another time. From the
|
| another time. From the observations of an individual, we obtain a
|
observations of an individual, we obtain a follow-up over time of
|
| follow-up over time of the occurrence of a specific event. In
|
the occurrence of a specific event. In this documentation, the
|
| this documentation, the event is related to health status at
|
event is related to health status at older ages, but the program
|
| older ages, but the program can be applied on a lot of
|
can be applied on a lot of longitudinal studies in different
|
| longitudinal studies in different contexts. To build the data
|
contexts. To build the data file explained into the next section,
|
| file explained into the next section, you must have the month and
|
you must have the month and year of each interview and the
|
| year of each interview and the corresponding health status. But
|
corresponding health status. But in order to get age, date of
|
| in order to get age, date of birth (month and year) is required
|
birth (month and year) is required (missing values is allowed for
|
| (missing values is allowed for month). Date of death (month and
|
month). Date of death (month and year) is an important
|
| year) is an important information also required if the individual
|
information also required if the individual is dead. Shorter
|
| is dead. Shorter steps (i.e. a month) will more closely take into
|
steps (i.e. a month) will more closely take into account the
|
| account the survival time after the last interview.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
survival time after the last interview.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <h2><a name="datafile"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:
|
<h2><a name="datafile"><font color="#00006A">The data file</font></a></h2>
|
| EN-GB">The data file</span><span style="mso-bookmark:datafile"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h2>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">In this example, 8,000 people have
|
<p>In this example, 8,000 people have been interviewed in a
|
| been interviewed in a cross-longitudinal survey of 4 waves (1984,
|
cross-longitudinal survey of 4 waves (1984, 1986, 1988, 1990).
|
| 1986, 1988, 1990). Some people missed 1, 2 or 3 interviews.
|
Some people missed 1, 2 or 3 interviews. Health statuses are
|
| Health statuses are healthy (1) and disable (2). The survey is
|
healthy (1) and disable (2). The survey is not a real one. It is
|
| not a real one. It is a simulation of the American Longitudinal
|
a simulation of the American Longitudinal Survey on Aging. The
|
| Survey on Aging. The disability state is defined if the
|
disability state is defined if the individual missed one of four
|
| individual missed one of four ADL (Activity of daily living, like
|
ADL (Activity of daily living, like bathing, eating, walking).
|
| bathing, eating, walking). Therefore, even is the individuals
|
Therefore, even is the individuals interviewed in the sample are
|
| interviewed in the sample are virtual, the information brought
|
virtual, the information brought with this sample is close to the
|
| with this sample is close to the situation of the United States.
|
situation of the United States. Sex is not recorded is this
|
| Sex is not recorded is this sample.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
sample.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Each line of the data set (named </span><a href="data1.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
<p>Each line of the data set (named <a href="data1.txt">data1.txt</a>
|
| EN-GB">data1.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>
|
in this first example) is an individual record which fields are: </p>
|
| in this first example) is an individual record which fields are: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
<ul>
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<li><b>Index number</b>: positive number (field 1) </li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><b>First covariate</b> positive number (field 2) </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>Second covariate</b> positive number (field 3) </li>
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Index
|
<li><a name="Weight"><b>Weight</b></a>: positive number
|
| number</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: positive number (field 1) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
(field 4) . In most surveys individuals are weighted
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
according to the stratification of the sample.</li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>Date of birth</b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates are
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">First
|
coded as 99/9999 (field 5) </li>
|
| covariate</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b> positive number (field 2) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><b>Date of death</b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates are
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
coded as 99/9999 (field 6) </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>Date of first interview</b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Second
|
dates are coded as 99/9999 (field 7) </li>
|
| covariate</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b> positive number (field 3) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><b>Status at first interview</b>: positive number.
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
Missing values ar coded -1. (field 8) </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>Date of second interview</b>: coded as mm/yyyy.
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
Missing dates are coded as 99/9999 (field 9) </li>
|
| name="Weight"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Weight</span><span style="mso-bookmark:Weight"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
<li><strong>Status at second interview</strong> positive
|
| EN-GB"></b></a>: positive number (field
|
number. Missing values ar coded -1. (field 10) </li>
|
| 4) . In most surveys individuals are weighted according
|
<li><b>Date of third interview</b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing
|
| to the stratification of the sample.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
dates are coded as 99/9999 (field 11) </li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><strong>Status at third interview</strong> positive
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
number. Missing values ar coded -1. (field 12) </li>
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Date
|
<li><b>Date of fourth interview</b>: coded as mm/yyyy.
|
| of birth</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates are coded
|
Missing dates are coded as 99/9999 (field 13) </li>
|
| as 99/9999 (field 5) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><strong>Status at fourth interview</strong> positive
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
number. Missing values are coded -1. (field 14) </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li>etc</li>
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Date
|
|
| of death</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates are coded
|
|
| as 99/9999 (field 6) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Date
|
|
| of first interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates
|
|
| are coded as 99/9999 (field 7) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Status
|
|
| at first interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: positive number. Missing values
|
|
| ar coded -1. (field 8) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Date
|
|
| of second interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates
|
|
| are coded as 99/9999 (field 9) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Status
|
|
| at second interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong> positive number. Missing
|
|
| values ar coded -1. (field 10) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Date
|
|
| of third interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates
|
|
| are coded as 99/9999 (field 11) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Status
|
|
| at third interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong> positive number. Missing
|
|
| values ar coded -1. (field 12) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Date
|
|
| of fourth interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>: coded as mm/yyyy. Missing dates
|
|
| are coded as 99/9999 (field 13) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Status
|
|
| at fourth interview</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong> positive number. Missing
|
|
| values are coded -1. (field 14) <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l12 level1 lfo6;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">etc<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <p><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
<p> </p>
|
|
|
|
| <p style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If your longitudinal survey do not
|
<p>If your longitudinal survey do not include information about
|
| include information about weights or covariates, you must fill
|
weights or covariates, you must fill the column with a number
|
| the column with a number (e.g. 1) because a missing field is not
|
(e.g. 1) because a missing field is not allowed.</p>
|
| allowed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <h2><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Your first example parameter file</span><a
|
<h2><font color="#00006A">Your first example parameter file</font><a
|
| href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach"></a><a name="uio"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h2>
|
href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach"></a><a name="uio"></a></h2>
|
|
|
|
| <h2><a name="biaspar"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>#Imach version 0.7, February 2002,
|
|
| INED-EUROREVES <o:p></o:p></span></h2>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This is a comment. Comments start with a '#'.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
<h2><a name="biaspar"></a>#Imach version 0.71a, March 2002,
|
| |
INED-EUROREVES </h2>
|
|
|
|
| <h4><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">First uncommented line</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
<p>This is a comment. Comments start with a '#'.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">title=1st_example datafile=data1.txt lastobs=8600 firstpass=1 lastpass=4<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">First uncommented line</font></h4>
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<pre>title=1st_example datafile=data1.txt lastobs=8600 firstpass=1 lastpass=4</pre>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<ul>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo9;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">title=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
<li><b>title=</b> 1st_example is title of the run. </li>
|
| 1st_example is title of the run. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><b>datafile=</b>data1.txt is the name of the data set.
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
Our example is a six years follow-up survey. It consists
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
in a baseline followed by 3 reinterviews. </li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo9;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">datafile=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>data1.txt
|
<li><b>lastobs=</b> 8600 the program is able to run on a
|
| is the name of the data set. Our example is a six years
|
subsample where the last observation number is lastobs.
|
| follow-up survey. It consists in a baseline followed by 3
|
It can be set a bigger number than the real number of
|
| reinterviews. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
observations (e.g. 100000). In this example, maximisation
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
will be done on the 8600 first records. </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>firstpass=1</b> , <b>lastpass=4 </b>In case of more
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo9;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">lastobs=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
than two interviews in the survey, the program can be run
|
| 8600 the program is able to run on a subsample where the
|
on selected transitions periods. firstpass=1 means the
|
| last observation number is lastobs. It can be set a
|
first interview included in the calculation is the
|
| bigger number than the real number of observations (e.g.
|
baseline survey. lastpass=4 means that the information
|
| 100000). In this example, maximisation will be done on
|
brought by the 4th interview is taken into account.</li>
|
| the 8600 first records. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo9;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">firstpass=1</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
|
| , <b>lastpass=4 </b>In case of more than two interviews
|
|
| in the survey, the program can be run on selected
|
|
| transitions periods. firstpass=1 means the first
|
|
| interview included in the calculation is the baseline
|
|
| survey. lastpass=4 means that the information brought by
|
|
| the 4th interview is taken into account.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p> </p>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<h4><a name="biaspar-2"><font color="#FF0000">Second uncommented
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Second
|
line</font></a></h4>
|
| uncommented line</span><a name="biaspar-2"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h4>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">ftol=1.e-08 stepm=1 ncov=2 nlstate=2 ndeath=1 maxwav=4 mle=1 weight=0<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>ftol=1.e-08 stepm=1 ncov=2 nlstate=2 ndeath=1 maxwav=4 mle=1 weight=0</pre>
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<ul>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><b>ftol=1e-8</b> Convergence tolerance on the function
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
value in the maximisation of the likelihood. Choosing a
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">ftol=1e-8</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
correct value for ftol is difficult. 1e-8 is a correct
|
| Convergence tolerance on the function value in the
|
value for a 32 bits computer.</li>
|
| maximisation of the likelihood. Choosing a correct value
|
<li><b>stepm=1</b> Time unit in months for interpolation.
|
| for ftol is difficult. 1e-8 is a correct value for a 32
|
Examples:<ul>
|
| bits computer.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li>If stepm=1, the unit is a month </li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>If stepm=4, the unit is a trimester</li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li>If stepm=12, the unit is a year </li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">stepm=1</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
<li>If stepm=24, the unit is two years</li>
|
| Time unit in months for interpolation. Examples:<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li>... </li>
|
| <li><ul type="circle">
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| stepm=1, the unit is a month <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| stepm=4, the unit is a trimester<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| stepm=12, the unit is a year <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| stepm=24, the unit is two years<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">...
|
|
| <o:p></o:p></span> </li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
| </li>
|
</li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><b>ncov=2</b> Number of covariates in the datafile. </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>nlstate=2</b> Number of non-absorbing (alive) states.
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">ncov=2</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
Here we have two alive states: disability-free is coded 1
|
| Number of covariates in the datafile. The intercept and
|
and disability is coded 2. </li>
|
| the age parameter are counting for 2 covariates.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><b>ndeath=1</b> Number of absorbing states. The absorbing
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
state death is coded 3. </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>maxwav=4</b> Number of waves in the datafile.</li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">nlstate=2</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
<li><a name="mle"><b>mle</b></a><b>=1</b> Option for the
|
| Number of non-absorbing (alive) states. Here we have two
|
Maximisation Likelihood Estimation. <ul>
|
| alive states: disability-free is coded 1 and disability
|
<li>If mle=1 the program does the maximisation and
|
| is coded 2. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
the calculation of health expectancies </li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>If mle=0 the program only does the calculation of
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
the health expectancies. </li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">ndeath=1</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
|
| Number of absorbing states. The absorbing state death is
|
|
| coded 3. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">maxwav=4</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
|
| Number of waves in the datafile.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><a
|
|
| name="mle"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mle</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b></a><b>=1</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b> Option for the
|
|
| Maximisation Likelihood Estimation. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li><ul type="circle">
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| mle=1 the program does the maximisation and the
|
|
| calculation of health expectancies <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| mle=0 the program only does the calculation of
|
|
| the health expectancies. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
| </li>
|
</li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><b>weight=0</b> Possibility to add weights. <ul>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li>If weight=0 no weights are included </li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level1 lfo12;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">weight=0</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
<li>If weight=1 the maximisation integrates the
|
| Possibility to add weights. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
weights which are in field <a href="#Weight">4</a></li>
|
| <li><ul type="circle">
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| weight=0 no weights are included <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:
|
|
| auto;text-align:justify;mso-list:l14 level2 lfo12;tab-stops:list 72.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| weight=1 the maximisation integrates the weights
|
|
| which are in field </span><a href="#Weight"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">4</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
| </li>
|
</li>
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Covariates</font></h4>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Covariates</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Intercept and age are systematically included in the model.
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Intercept
|
Additional covariates can be included with the command: </p>
|
| and age are systematically included in the model. Additional
|
|
| covariates can be included with the command <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">model=<em>list of covariates<o:p></o:p></span></em></pre>
|
<pre>model=<em>list of covariates</em></pre>
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<ul>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>if<strong> model=. </strong>then no covariates are
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
included</li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo15;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">if<strong>
|
<li>if <strong>model=V1</strong> the model includes the first
|
| model=. </strong>then no covariates are included<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
covariate (field 2)</li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>if <strong>model=V2 </strong>the model includes the
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
second covariate (field 3)</li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo15;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">if
|
<li>if <strong>model=V1+V2 </strong>the model includes the
|
| <strong>model=V1</strong> the model includes the first
|
first and the second covariate (fields 2 and 3)</li>
|
| covariate (field 2)<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li>if <strong>model=V1*V2 </strong>the model includes the
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo15;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">if
|
|
| <strong>model=V2 </strong>the model includes the second
|
|
| covariate (field 3)<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo15;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">if
|
|
| <strong>model=V1+V2 </strong>the model includes the first
|
|
| and the second covariate (fields 2 and 3)<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo15;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">if
|
|
| <strong>model=V1*V2 </strong>the model includes the
|
|
| product of the first and the second covariate (fields 2
|
product of the first and the second covariate (fields 2
|
| and 3)<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
and 3)</li>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>if <strong>model=V1+V1*age</strong> the model includes
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
the product covariate*age</li>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo15;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">if
|
|
| <strong>model=V1+V1*age</strong> the model includes the
|
|
| product covariate*age<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<p>In this example, we have two covariates in the data file
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Guess
|
(fields 2 and 3). The number of covariates is defined with
|
| values for optimisation</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
statement ncov=2. If now you have 3 covariates in the datafile
|
| |
(fields 2, 3 and 4), you have to set ncov=3. Then you can run the
|
| |
programme with a new parametrisation taking into account the
|
| |
third covariate. For example, <strong>model=V1+V3 </strong>estimates
|
| |
a model with the first and third covariates. More complicated
|
| |
models can be used, but it will takes more time to converge. With
|
| |
a simple model (no covariates), the programme estimates 8
|
| |
parameters. Adding covariates increases the number of parameters
|
| |
: 12 for <strong>model=V1, </strong>16 for <strong>model=V1+V1*age
|
| |
</strong>and 20 for <strong>model=V1+V2+V3.</strong></p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Guess values for optimization</font><font
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">You
|
color="#00006A"> </font></h4>
|
| must write the initial guess values of the parameters for
|
|
| optimisation. The number of parameters, <em>N</em> depends on the
|
<p>You must write the initial guess values of the parameters for
|
| |
optimization. The number of parameters, <em>N</em> depends on the
|
| number of absorbing states and non-absorbing states and on the
|
number of absorbing states and non-absorbing states and on the
|
| number of covariates. <br>
|
number of covariates. <br>
|
| <em>N</em> is given by the formula <em>N</em>=(<em>nlstate</em> +
|
<em>N</em> is given by the formula <em>N</em>=(<em>nlstate</em> +
|
|
Line 940 start with zeros as in this example, but
|
Line 405 start with zeros as in this example, but
|
| precise set (for example from an earlier run) you can enter it
|
precise set (for example from an earlier run) you can enter it
|
| and it will speed up them<br>
|
and it will speed up them<br>
|
| Each of the four lines starts with indices "ij": <b>ij
|
Each of the four lines starts with indices "ij": <b>ij
|
| aij bij</b> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
aij bij</b> </p>
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:
|
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Guess values of aij and bij in log (pij/pii) = aij + bij * age<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">12 -14.155633<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>0.110794 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">13<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>-7.925360<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>0.032091 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">21<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>-1.890135 -0.029473 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">23<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>-6.234642<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>0.022315 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">or,
|
|
| to simplify: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
<blockquote>
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:
|
<pre># Guess values of aij and bij in log (pij/pii) = aij + bij * age
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">12 0.0 0.0<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
12 -14.155633 0.110794
|
|
|
13 -7.925360 0.032091
|
| <pre
|
21 -1.890135 -0.029473
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
23 -6.234642 0.022315 </pre>
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
</blockquote>
|
| EN-GB">13 0.0 0.0<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
<p>or, to simplify (in most of cases it converges but there is no
|
| <pre
|
warranty!): </p>
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:
|
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:
|
<blockquote>
|
| justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">21 0.0 0.0<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>12 0.0 0.0
|
|
|
13 0.0 0.0
|
| <pre
|
21 0.0 0.0
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
23 0.0 0.0</pre>
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
</blockquote>
|
| EN-GB">23 0.0 0.0<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
<p> In order to speed up the convergence you can make a first run with
|
| <h4
|
a large stepm i.e stepm=12 or 24 and then decrease the stepm until
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Guess
|
stepm=1 month. If newstepm is the new shorter stepm and stepm can be
|
| values for computing variances</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
expressed as a multiple of newstepm, like newstepm=n stepm, then the
|
| |
following approximation holds:
|
| |
<pre>aij(n stepm) = aij(stepm) +ln(n)
|
| |
</pre> and
|
| |
<pre>bij(n stepm) = bij(stepm) .</pre>
|
| |
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Guess values for computing variances</font></h4>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>This is an output if <a href="#mle">mle</a>=1. But it can be
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
used as an input to get the various output data files (Health
|
| is an output if </span><a href="#mle"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mle</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>=1. But it can be used as
|
|
| an input to get the various output data files (Health
|
|
| expectancies, stationary prevalence etc.) and figures without
|
expectancies, stationary prevalence etc.) and figures without
|
| rerunning the rather long maximisation phase (mle=0). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
rerunning the rather long maximisation phase (mle=0). </p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>The scales are small values for the evaluation of numerical
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The
|
|
| scales are small values for the evaluation of numerical
|
|
| derivatives. These derivatives are used to compute the hessian
|
derivatives. These derivatives are used to compute the hessian
|
| matrix of the parameters, that is the inverse of the covariance
|
matrix of the parameters, that is the inverse of the covariance
|
| matrix, and the variances of health expectancies. Each line
|
matrix, and the variances of health expectancies. Each line
|
| consists in indices "ij" followed by the initial scales
|
consists in indices "ij" followed by the initial scales
|
| (zero to simplify) associated with aij and bij. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
(zero to simplify) associated with aij and bij. </p>
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<ul>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>If mle=1 you can enter zeros:</li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l16 level1 lfo18;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| mle=1 you can enter zeros:<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
<blockquote>
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:
|
<pre># Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
12 0. 0.
|
|
|
13 0. 0.
|
| <pre
|
21 0. 0.
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
23 0. 0. </pre>
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
</blockquote>
|
| EN-GB">12 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
<ul>
|
| <pre
|
<li>If mle=0 you must enter a covariance matrix (usually
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:
|
obtained from an earlier run).</li>
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:
|
|
| justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">13 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">21 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:
|
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:
|
|
| justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">23 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l11 level1 lfo21;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| mle=0 you must enter a covariance matrix (usually
|
|
| obtained from an earlier run).<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Covariance matrix of parameters</font></h4>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Covariance
|
|
| matrix of parameters</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>This is an output if <a href="#mle">mle</a>=1. But it can be
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
used as an input to get the various output data files (Health
|
| is an output if </span><a href="#mle"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mle</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>=1. But it can be used as
|
|
| an input to get the various output data files (Health
|
|
| expectancies, stationary prevalence etc.) and figures without
|
expectancies, stationary prevalence etc.) and figures without
|
| rerunning the rather long maximisation phase (mle=0). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
rerunning the rather long maximisation phase (mle=0). </p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Each
|
|
| line starts with indices "ijk" followed by the
|
|
| covariances between aij and bij: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<p>Each line starts with indices "ijk" followed by the
|
| |
covariances between aij and bij: </p>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>121 Var(a12) <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>
|
| |
121 Var(a12)
|
| |
122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)
|
| |
...
|
| |
232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23) </pre>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>122 Cov(b12,a12)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Var(b12) <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<ul>
|
|
|
<li>If mle=1 you can enter zeros. </li>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>...<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>232 Cov(b23,a12)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23) <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l18 level1 lfo24;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| mle=1 you can enter zeros. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
<blockquote>
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:
|
<pre># Covariance matrix
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Covariance matrix<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
121 0.
|
|
|
122 0. 0.
|
| <pre
|
131 0. 0. 0.
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
132 0. 0. 0. 0.
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
211 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
|
| EN-GB">121 0.<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
212 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
|
|
|
231 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
|
| <pre
|
232 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.</pre>
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:
|
</blockquote>
|
| 36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:
|
|
| justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">122 0. 0.<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<ul>
|
|
|
<li>If mle=0 you must enter a covariance matrix (usually
|
| <pre
|
obtained from an earlier run).<br>
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
</li>
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">131 0. 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;
|
|
| margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;
|
|
| text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">132 0. 0. 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">211 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;
|
|
| margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;margin-bottom:.0001pt;
|
|
| text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">212 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;
|
|
| margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">231 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-top:
|
|
| 0cm;margin-right:36.0pt;margin-bottom:0cm;margin-left:36.0pt;margin-bottom:
|
|
| .0001pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">232 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l7 level1 lfo27;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">If
|
|
| mle=0 you must enter a covariance matrix (usually
|
|
| obtained from an earlier run).<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Age range for calculation of stationary
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Age
|
prevalences and health expectancies</font></h4>
|
| range for calculation of stationary prevalences and health
|
|
| expectancies</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">agemin=70 agemax=100 bage=50 fage=100<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>agemin=70 agemax=100 bage=50 fage=100</pre>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Once we obtained the estimated parameters, the program is able
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Once
|
to calculated stationary prevalence, transitions probabilities
|
| we obtained the estimated parameters, the program is able to
|
and life expectancies at any age. Choice of age range is useful
|
| calculated stationary prevalence, transitions probabilities and
|
for extrapolation. In our data file, ages varies from age 70 to
|
| life expectancies at any age. Choice of age range is useful for
|
102. It is possible to get extrapolated stationary prevalence by
|
| extrapolation. In our data file, ages varies from age 70 to 102.
|
age ranging from agemin to agemax. </p>
|
| Setting bage=50 and fage=100, makes the program computing life
|
|
| expectancy from age bage to age fage. As we use a model, we can
|
<p>Setting bage=50 (begin age) and fage=100 (final age), makes
|
| compute life expectancy on a wider age range than the age range
|
the program computing life expectancy from age 'bage' to age
|
| from the data. But the model can be rather wrong on big
|
'fage'. As we use a model, we can interessingly compute life
|
| intervals.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
expectancy on a wider age range than the age range from the data.
|
|
|
But the model can be rather wrong on much larger intervals.
|
| <p
|
Program is limited to around 120 for upper age!</p>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Similarly,
|
|
| it is possible to get extrapolated stationary prevalence by age
|
<ul>
|
| ranging from agemin to agemax. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
<li><b>agemin=</b> Minimum age for calculation of the
|
|
|
stationary prevalence </li>
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<li><b>agemax=</b> Maximum age for calculation of the
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
stationary prevalence </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><b>bage=</b> Minimum age for calculation of the health
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l13 level1 lfo30;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">agemin=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
expectancies </li>
|
| Minimum age for calculation of the stationary prevalence <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><b>fage=</b> Maximum age for calculation of the health
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
expectancies </li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l13 level1 lfo30;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">agemax=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
|
| Maximum age for calculation of the stationary prevalence <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l13 level1 lfo30;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">bage=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
|
| Minimum age for calculation of the health expectancies <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l13 level1 lfo30;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">fage=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
|
| Maximum age for calculation of the health expectancies <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<h4><a name="Computing"><font color="#FF0000">Computing</font></a><font
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><a
|
color="#FF0000"> the observed prevalence</font></h4>
|
| name="Computing"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> the observed prevalence</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">begin-prev-date=1/1/1984 end-prev-date=1/6/1988 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<pre>begin-prev-date=1/1/1984 end-prev-date=1/6/1988 </pre>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Statements
|
|
| 'begin-prev-date' and 'end-prev-date' allow to select the period
|
|
| in which we calculate the observed prevalences in each state. In
|
|
| this example, the prevalences are calculated on data survey
|
|
| collected between 1 January 1984 and 1 June 1988. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<p>Statements 'begin-prev-date' and 'end-prev-date' allow to
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
select the period in which we calculate the observed prevalences
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
in each state. In this example, the prevalences are calculated on
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l3 level1 lfo33;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">begin-prev-date=
|
data survey collected between 1 january 1984 and 1 june 1988. </p>
|
| </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> </strong>Starting date (day/month/year)<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<ul>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><strong>begin-prev-date= </strong>Starting date
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l3 level1 lfo33;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">end-prev-date=
|
(day/month/year)</li>
|
| </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> </strong>Final date (day/month/year)<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><strong>end-prev-date= </strong>Final date
|
| |
(day/month/year)</li>
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Population- or status-based health
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Population-
|
expectancies</font></h4>
|
| or status-based health expectancies</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">pop_based=0<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>pop_based=0</pre>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>The program computes status-based health expectancies, i.e
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The
|
health expectancies which depends on your initial health state.
|
| user has the possibility to choose between population-based or
|
If you are healthy your healthy life expectancy (e11) is higher
|
| status-based health expectancies. If pop_based=0 then
|
than if you were disabled (e21, with e11 > e21).<br>
|
| status-based health expectancies are computed and if pop_based=1,
|
To compute a healthy life expectancy independant of the initial
|
| the programme computes population-based health expectancies.
|
status we have to weight e11 and e21 according to the probability
|
| Health expectancies are weighted averages of health expectancies
|
to be in each state at initial age or, with other word, according
|
| respective of the initial state. For a status-based index, the
|
to the proportion of people in each state.<br>
|
| weights are the cross-sectional prevalences observed between two
|
We prefer computing a 'pure' period healthy life expectancy based
|
| dates, as </span><a href="#Computing"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">previously explained</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>, whereas
|
only on the transtion forces. Then the weights are simply the
|
| for a population-based index, the weights are the stationary
|
stationnary prevalences or 'implied' prevalences at the initial
|
| prevalences.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
age.<br>
|
|
|
Some other people would like to use the cross-sectional
|
| <h4
|
prevalences (the "Sullivan prevalences") observed at
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Prevalence
|
the initial age during a period of time <a href="#Computing">defined
|
| forecasting </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
just above</a>. </p>
|
| |
|
| |
<ul>
|
| |
<li><strong>popbased= 0 </strong>Health expectancies are
|
| |
computed at each age from stationary prevalences
|
| |
'expected' at this initial age.</li>
|
| |
<li><strong>popbased= 1 </strong>Health expectancies are
|
| |
computed at each age from cross-sectional 'observed'
|
| |
prevalence at this initial age. As all the population is
|
| |
not observed at the same exact date we define a short
|
| |
period were the observed prevalence is computed.</li>
|
| |
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">starting-proj-date=1/1/1989 final-proj-date=1/1/1992 mov_average=0 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Prevalence forecasting ( Experimental)</font></h4>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<pre>starting-proj-date=1/1/1989 final-proj-date=1/1/1992 mov_average=0 </pre>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Prevalence
|
|
| and population projections are available only if the
|
|
| interpolation unit is a month, i.e. stepm=1. The programme
|
|
| estimates the prevalence in each state at a precise date
|
|
| expressed in day/month/year. The programme computes one
|
|
| forecasted prevalence a year from a starting date (1 January of
|
|
| 1989 in this example) to a final date (1 January 1992). The
|
|
| statement mov_average allows to compute smoothed forecasted
|
|
| prevalences with a five-age moving average centred at the mid-age
|
|
| of the five-age period. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<p>Prevalence and population projections are only available if
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
the interpolation unit is a month, i.e. stepm=1 and if there are
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
no covariate. The programme estimates the prevalence in each
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo36;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">starting-proj-date</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong>=
|
state at a precise date expressed in day/month/year. The
|
| starting date (day/month/year) of forecasting<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
programme computes one forecasted prevalence a year from a
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
starting date (1 january of 1989 in this example) to a final date
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
(1 january 1992). The statement mov_average allows to compute
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo36;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">final-proj-date=
|
smoothed forecasted prevalences with a five-age moving average
|
| </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> </strong>final date (day/month/year) of forecasting<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
centered at the mid-age of the five-age period. </p>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<ul>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo36;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mov_average</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong>=
|
<li><strong>starting-proj-date</strong>= starting date
|
| smoothing with a five-age moving average centred at the
|
(day/month/year) of forecasting</li>
|
| mid-age of the five-age period. The command<strong>
|
<li><strong>final-proj-date= </strong>final date
|
| mov_average</strong> takes value 1 if the prevalences are
|
(day/month/year) of forecasting</li>
|
| smoothed and 0 otherwise.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li><strong>mov_average</strong>= smoothing with a five-age
|
| |
moving average centered at the mid-age of the five-age
|
| |
period. The command<strong> mov_average</strong> takes
|
| |
value 1 if the prevalences are smoothed and 0 otherwise.</li>
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h4
|
<h4><font color="#FF0000">Last uncommented line : Population
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:red;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Last
|
forecasting </font></h4>
|
| uncommented line : Population forecasting </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">popforecast=0 popfile=pyram.txt popfiledate=1/1/1989 last-popfiledate=1/1/1992<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>popforecast=0 popfile=pyram.txt popfiledate=1/1/1989 last-popfiledate=1/1/1992</pre>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>This command is available if the interpolation unit is a
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
month, i.e. stepm=1 and if popforecast=1. From a data file
|
| command is available if the interpolation unit is a month, i.e.
|
including age and number of persons alive at the precise date
|
| stepm=1 and if popforecast=1. From a data file including age and
|
‘popfiledate’, you can forecast the number of persons
|
| number of persons alive at the precise date ‘</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
|
in each state until date ‘last-popfiledate’. In this
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">popfiledate’,
|
example, the popfile <a href="pyram.txt"><b>pyram.txt</b></a>
|
| </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">you can forecast the number of persons in each state until date</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
|
includes real data which are the Japanese population in 1989.</p>
|
| 12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">
|
|
| ‘last-popfiledate’. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">In this example, the popfile </span><a
|
|
| href="pyram.txt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">pyram.txt</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b></a><b> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"></b> </span>includes real
|
|
| data which are the Japanese population in 1989.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<ul type="disc">
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li class="MsoNormal"
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>popforecast=
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo36;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">popforecast=
|
0 </b>Option for population forecasting. If
|
| 0</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b> Option for population forecasting. If
|
popforecast=1, the programme does the forecasting<b>.</b></li>
|
| popforecast=1, the programme does the forecasting<b>.<o:p></o:p></span></b></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li class="MsoNormal"
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>popfile=
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo36;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">popfile=
|
</b>name of the population file</li>
|
| </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> </b>name of the population file<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li class="MsoNormal"
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>popfiledate=</b>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo36;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">popfiledate=</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>
|
date of the population population</li>
|
| date of the population population<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li class="MsoNormal"
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>last-popfiledate</b>=
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l10 level1 lfo36;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">last-popfiledate</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></b>=
|
date of the last population projection </li>
|
| date of the last population projection <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <h2
|
<h2><a name="running"></a><font color="#00006A">Running Imach
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><a
|
with this example</font></h2>
|
| name="running"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>Running Imach with this example</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h2>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>We assume that you entered your <a href="biaspar.imach">1st_example
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">We
|
parameter file</a> as explained <a href="#biaspar">above</a>. To
|
| assume that you entered your </span><a href="biaspar.imach"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">1st_example
|
|
| parameter file</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> as explained </span><a href="#biaspar"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">above</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>. To
|
|
| run the program you should click on the imach.exe icon and enter
|
run the program you should click on the imach.exe icon and enter
|
| the name of the parameter file which is for example </span><a
|
the name of the parameter file which is for example <a
|
| href="..\mle\biaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">C:\usr\imach\mle\biaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> (you
|
href="C:\usr\imach\mle\biaspar.txt">C:\usr\imach\mle\biaspar.txt</a>
|
| also can click on the biaspar.txt icon located in </span><a
|
(you also can click on the biaspar.txt icon located in <br>
|
| href="..\mle"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">C:\usr\imach\mle</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> and put it with the mouse on
|
<a href="C:\usr\imach\mle">C:\usr\imach\mle</a> and put it with
|
| the imach window).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
the mouse on the imach window).<br>
|
| |
</p>
|
| |
|
| |
<p>The time to converge depends on the step unit that you used (1
|
| |
month is cpu consuming), on the number of cases, and on the
|
| |
number of variables.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>The program outputs many files. Most of them are files which
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The
|
will be plotted for better understanding.</p>
|
| time to converge depends on the step unit that you used (1 month
|
|
| is cpu consuming), on the number of cases, and on the number of
|
|
| variables.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The
|
|
| program outputs many files. Most of them are files which will be
|
|
| plotted for better understanding.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <h2
|
<h2><a name="output"><font color="#00006A">Output of the program
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><a
|
and graphs</font> </a></h2>
|
| name="output"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Output of the program and graphs</span><span style="mso-bookmark:output"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h2>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Once
|
|
| the optimization is finished, some graphics can be made with a
|
|
| grapher. We use Gnuplot which is an interactive plotting program
|
|
| copyrighted but freely distributed. A gnuplot reference manual is
|
|
| available </span><a href="http://www.gnuplot.info/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">here</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>. <br>
|
|
| When the running is finished, the user should enter a character
|
|
| for plotting and output editing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">These
|
|
| characters are:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<p>Once the optimization is finished, some graphics can be made
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
with a grapher. We use Gnuplot which is an interactive plotting
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
program copyrighted but freely distributed. A gnuplot reference
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo41;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">'c'
|
manual is available <a href="http://www.gnuplot.info/">here</a>. <br>
|
| to start again the program from the beginning.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
When the running is finished, the user should enter a caracter
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
for plotting and output editing. </p>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo41;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">'e'
|
<p>These caracters are:</p>
|
| opens the </span><a href="biaspar.htm"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">biaspar.htm</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong></a>
|
|
| file to edit the output files and graphs. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<ul>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>'c' to start again the program from the beginning.</li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li>'e' opens the <a href="biaspar.htm"><strong>biaspar.htm</strong></a>
|
| text-align:justify;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo41;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">'q'
|
file to edit the output files and graphs. </li>
|
| for exiting.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
<li>'q' for exiting.</li>
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
<h5><font size="4"><strong>Results files </strong></font><br>
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:18.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;color:#00006A;
|
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Results
|
|
| files</span><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:13.5pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong><br>
|
|
| <br>
|
<br>
|
| </span><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;
|
<font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><strong>- </strong></font><a
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">- </strong><a name="Observed_prevalence_in_each_state"><strong>Observed
|
name="Observed prevalence in each state"><font color="#EC5E5E"
|
| prevalence in each state</strong></a><strong> (and at first pass)</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></strong>:
|
size="3"><strong>Observed prevalence in each state</strong></font></a><font
|
| </span><a href="prbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">prbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><strong> (and at first pass)</strong></font><b>:
|
|
|
</b><a href="prbiaspar.txt"><b>prbiaspar.txt</b></a><br>
|
| <p
|
</h5>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The
|
|
| first line is the title and displays each field of the file. The
|
<p>The first line is the title and displays each field of the
|
| first column is age. The fields 2 and 6 are the proportion of
|
file. The first column is age. The fields 2 and 6 are the
|
| individuals in states 1 and 2 respectively as observed during the
|
proportion of individuals in states 1 and 2 respectively as
|
| first exam. Others fields are the numbers of people in states 1,
|
observed during the first exam. Others fields are the numbers of
|
| 2 or more. The number of columns increases if the number of
|
people in states 1, 2 or more. The number of columns increases if
|
| states is higher than 2.<br>
|
the number of states is higher than 2.<br>
|
| The header of the file is <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
The header of the file is </p>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Age Prev(1) N(1) N Age Prev(2) N(2) N<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre># Age Prev(1) N(1) N Age Prev(2) N(2) N
|
|
|
70 1.00000 631 631 70 0.00000 0 631
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">70 1.00000 631 631 70 0.00000 0 631<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
71 0.99681 625 627 71 0.00319 2 627
|
|
|
72 0.97125 1115 1148 72 0.02875 33 1148 </pre>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">71 0.99681 625 627 71 0.00319 2 627 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
<p>It means that at age 70, the prevalence in state 1 is 1.000
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">72 0.97125 1115 1148 72 0.02875 33 1148 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
and in state 2 is 0.00 . At age 71 the number of individuals in
|
|
|
state 1 is 625 and in state 2 is 2, hence the total number of
|
| <p
|
people aged 71 is 625+2=627. <br>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">It
|
</p>
|
| means that at age 70, the prevalence in state 1 is 1.000 and in
|
|
| state 2 is 0.00 . At age 71 the number of individuals in state 1
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Estimated parameters and
|
| is 625 and in state 2 is 2, hence the total number of people aged
|
covariance matrix</b></font><b>: </b><a href="rbiaspar.txt"><b>rbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
| 71 is 625+2=627. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
<p>This file contains all the maximisation results: </p>
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
<pre> -2 log likelihood= 21660.918613445392
|
| Estimated parameters and covariance matrix</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a
|
Estimated parameters: a12 = -12.290174 b12 = 0.092161
|
| href="rbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">rbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
a13 = -9.155590 b13 = 0.046627
|
|
|
a21 = -2.629849 b21 = -0.022030
|
| <p
|
a23 = -7.958519 b23 = 0.042614
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
Covariance matrix: Var(a12) = 1.47453e-001
|
| file contains all the maximisation results: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
Var(b12) = 2.18676e-005
|
|
|
Var(a13) = 2.09715e-001
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>-2 log likelihood= 21660.918613445392<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
Var(b13) = 3.28937e-005
|
|
|
Var(a21) = 9.19832e-001
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> Estimated parameters: a12 = -12.290174 b12 = 0.092161 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
Var(b21) = 1.29229e-004
|
|
|
Var(a23) = 4.48405e-001
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>a13 = -9.155590<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>b13 = 0.046627 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
Var(b23) = 5.85631e-005
|
|
|
</pre>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>a21 = -2.629849<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>b21 = -0.022030 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
<p>By substitution of these parameters in the regression model,
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>a23 = -7.958519<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>b23 = 0.042614<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
we obtain the elementary transition probabilities:</p>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Covariance matrix: Var(a12) = 1.47453e-001<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<p><img src="pebiaspar1.gif" width="400" height="300"></p>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Var(b12) = 2.18676e-005<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Transition probabilities</b></font><b>:
|
|
|
</b><a href="pijrbiaspar.txt"><b>pijrbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Var(a13) = 2.09715e-001<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
<p>Here are the transitions probabilities Pij(x, x+nh) where nh
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Var(b13) = 3.28937e-005<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
is a multiple of 2 years. The first column is the starting age x
|
|
|
(from age 50 to 100), the second is age (x+nh) and the others are
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Var(a21) = 9.19832e-001<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
the transition probabilities p11, p12, p13, p21, p22, p23. For
|
|
|
example, line 5 of the file is: </p>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Var(b21) = 1.29229e-004<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
| |
<pre> 100 106 0.02655 0.17622 0.79722 0.01809 0.13678 0.84513 </pre>
|
| |
|
| |
<p>and this means: </p>
|
| |
|
| |
<pre>p11(100,106)=0.02655
|
| |
p12(100,106)=0.17622
|
| |
p13(100,106)=0.79722
|
| |
p21(100,106)=0.01809
|
| |
p22(100,106)=0.13678
|
| |
p22(100,106)=0.84513 </pre>
|
| |
|
| |
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- </b></font><a
|
| |
name="Stationary prevalence in each state"><font color="#EC5E5E"
|
| |
size="3"><b>Stationary prevalence in each state</b></font></a><b>:
|
| |
</b><a href="plrbiaspar.txt"><b>plrbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
| |
|
| |
<pre>#Prevalence
|
| |
#Age 1-1 2-2
|
| |
|
| |
#************
|
| |
70 0.90134 0.09866
|
| |
71 0.89177 0.10823
|
| |
72 0.88139 0.11861
|
| |
73 0.87015 0.12985 </pre>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">Var(a23) = 4.48405e-001<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<p>At age 70 the stationary prevalence is 0.90134 in state 1 and
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Var(b23) = 5.85631e-005 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">By
|
|
| substitution of these parameters in the regression model, we
|
|
| obtain the elementary transition probabilities:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><img
|
|
| src="pebiaspar1.gif" width="400" height="300" id="_x0000_i1037"></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
|
| Transition probabilities</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a href="pijrbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">pijrbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Here
|
|
| are the transitions probabilities Pij(x, x+nh) where nh is a
|
|
| multiple of 2 years. The first column is the starting age x (from
|
|
| age 50 to 100), the second is age (x+nh) and the others are the
|
|
| transition probabilities p11, p12, p13, p21, p22, p23. For
|
|
| example, line 5 of the file is: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>100 106 0.02655 0.17622 0.79722 0.01809 0.13678 0.84513 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">and
|
|
| this means: <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">p11(100,106)=0.02655<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">p12(100,106)=0.17622<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">p13(100,106)=0.79722<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">p21(100,106)=0.01809<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">p22(100,106)=0.13678<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">p22(100,106)=0.84513 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
|
| <a name="Stationary_prevalence_in_each_state">Stationary
|
|
| prevalence in each state</span><span style="mso-bookmark:Stationary_prevalence_in_each_state"></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>: </span><a href="plrbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">plrbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">#Prevalence<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">#Age 1-1 2-2<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">#************ <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">70 0.90134 0.09866<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">71 0.89177 0.10823 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">72 0.88139 0.11861 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">73 0.87015 0.12985 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">At
|
|
| age 70 the stationary prevalence is 0.90134 in state 1 and
|
|
| 0.09866 in state 2. This stationary prevalence differs from
|
0.09866 in state 2. This stationary prevalence differs from
|
| observed prevalence. Here is the point. The observed prevalence
|
observed prevalence. Here is the point. The observed prevalence
|
| at age 70 results from the incidence of disability, incidence of
|
at age 70 results from the incidence of disability, incidence of
|
|
Line 1507 future if "nothing changes in the f
|
Line 778 future if "nothing changes in the f
|
| exactly what demographers do with a Life table. Life expectancy
|
exactly what demographers do with a Life table. Life expectancy
|
| is the expected mean time to survive if observed mortality rates
|
is the expected mean time to survive if observed mortality rates
|
| (incidence of mortality) "remains constant" in the
|
(incidence of mortality) "remains constant" in the
|
| future. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
future. </p>
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Standard deviation of
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
stationary prevalence</b></font><b>: </b><a
|
| Standard deviation of stationary prevalence</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a
|
href="vplrbiaspar.txt"><b>vplrbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
| href="vplrbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">vplrbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>The stationary prevalence has to be compared with the observed
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">The
|
|
| stationary prevalence has to be compared with the observed
|
|
| prevalence by age. But both are statistical estimates and
|
prevalence by age. But both are statistical estimates and
|
| subjected to stochastic errors due to the size of the sample, the
|
subjected to stochastic errors due to the size of the sample, the
|
| design of the survey, and, for the stationary prevalence to the
|
design of the survey, and, for the stationary prevalence to the
|
| model used and fitted. It is possible to compute the standard
|
model used and fitted. It is possible to compute the standard
|
| deviation of the stationary prevalence at each age.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
deviation of the stationary prevalence at each age.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3">-Observed and stationary
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-Observed
|
prevalence in state (2=disable) with the confident interval</font>:<b>
|
| and stationary prevalence in state (2=disable) with the confident
|
</b><a href="vbiaspar21.htm"><b>vbiaspar21.gif</b></a></h5>
|
| interval</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a href="vbiaspar21.htm"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">vbiaspar21.gif</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
| |
<p>This graph exhibits the stationary prevalence in state (2)
|
| |
with the confidence interval in red. The green curve is the
|
| |
observed prevalence (or proportion of individuals in state (2)).
|
| |
Without discussing the results (it is not the purpose here), we
|
| |
observe that the green curve is rather below the stationary
|
| |
prevalence. It suggests an increase of the disability prevalence
|
| |
in the future.</p>
|
| |
|
| |
<p><img src="vbiaspar21.gif" width="400" height="300"></p>
|
| |
|
| |
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>-Convergence to the
|
| |
stationary prevalence of disability</b></font><b>: </b><a
|
| |
href="pbiaspar11.gif"><b>pbiaspar11.gif</b></a><br>
|
| |
<img src="pbiaspar11.gif" width="400" height="300"> </h5>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>This graph plots the conditional transition probabilities from
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
an initial state (1=healthy in red at the bottom, or 2=disable in
|
| graph exhibits the stationary prevalence in state (2) with the
|
|
| confidence interval in red. The green curve is the observed
|
|
| prevalence (or proportion of individuals in state (2)). Without
|
|
| discussing the results (it is not the purpose here), we observe
|
|
| that the green curve is rather below the stationary prevalence.
|
|
| It suggests an increase of the disability prevalence in the
|
|
| future.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><img
|
|
| src="vbiaspar21.gif" width="400" height="300" id="_x0000_i1038"></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-Convergence
|
|
| to the stationary prevalence of disability</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a
|
|
| href="pbiaspar11.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">pbiaspar11.gif</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a><br>
|
|
| </span><img src="pbiaspar11.gif" width="400" height="300"
|
|
| id="_x0000_i1039"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
|
| graph plots the conditional transition probabilities from an
|
|
| initial state (1=healthy in red at the bottom, or 2=disable in
|
|
| green on top) at age <em>x </em>to the final state 2=disable<em> </em>at
|
green on top) at age <em>x </em>to the final state 2=disable<em> </em>at
|
| age <em>x+h. </em>Conditional means at the condition to be alive
|
age <em>x+h. </em>Conditional means at the condition to be alive
|
| at age <em>x+h </em>which is <i>hP12x</i> + <em>hP22x</em>. The
|
at age <em>x+h </em>which is <i>hP12x</i> + <em>hP22x</em>. The
|
|
Line 1563 prevalence at age 70 we should start the
|
Line 822 prevalence at age 70 we should start the
|
| age, i.e.50. If the disability state is defined by severe
|
age, i.e.50. If the disability state is defined by severe
|
| disability criteria with only a few chance to recover, then the
|
disability criteria with only a few chance to recover, then the
|
| incidence of recovery is low and the time to convergence is
|
incidence of recovery is low and the time to convergence is
|
| probably longer. But we don't have experience yet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
probably longer. But we don't have experience yet.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
|
| Life expectancies by age and initial health status</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a
|
|
| href="erbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">erbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Health expectancies <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Life expectancies by age
|
|
|
and initial health status</b></font><b>: </b><a
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Age 1-1 1-2 2-1 2-2 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
href="erbiaspar.txt"><b>erbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">70 10.9226 3.0401 5.6488 6.2122 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre># Health expectancies
|
|
|
# Age 1-1 1-2 2-1 2-2
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">71 10.4384 3.0461 5.2477 6.1599 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
70 10.9226 3.0401 5.6488 6.2122
|
|
|
71 10.4384 3.0461 5.2477 6.1599
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">72 9.9667 3.0502 4.8663 6.1025 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
72 9.9667 3.0502 4.8663 6.1025
|
|
|
73 9.5077 3.0524 4.5044 6.0401 </pre>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">73 9.5077 3.0524 4.5044 6.0401 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
<pre>For example 70 10.4227 3.0402 5.6488 5.7123 means:
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">For example 70 10.9226 3.0401 5.6488 6.2122 means:<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
e11=10.4227 e12=3.0402 e21=5.6488 e22=5.7123</pre>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">e11=10.9226 e12=3.0401 e21=5.6488 e22=6.2122<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre><img src="expbiaspar21.gif" width="400" height="300"><img
|
|
|
src="expbiaspar11.gif" width="400" height="300"></pre>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><img src="expbiaspar21.gif"
|
|
| width="400" height="300" id="_x0000_i1040"><img
|
<p>For example, life expectancy of a healthy individual at age 70
|
| src="expbiaspar11.gif" width="400" height="300" id="_x0000_i1041"></pre>
|
is 10.42 in the healthy state and 3.04 in the disability state
|
|
|
(=13.46 years). If he was disable at age 70, his life expectancy
|
| <p
|
will be shorter, 5.64 in the healthy state and 5.71 in the
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">For
|
disability state (=11.35 years). The total life expectancy is a
|
| example, life expectancy of a healthy individual at age 70 is
|
weighted mean of both, 13.46 and 11.35; weight is the proportion
|
| 10.92 in the healthy state and 3.04 in the disability state
|
|
| (=13.96 years). If he was disable at age 70, his life expectancy
|
|
| will be shorter, 5.64 in the healthy state and 6.21 in the
|
|
| disability state (=11.85 years). The total life expectancy is a
|
|
| weighted mean of both, 13.96 and 11.85; weight is the proportion
|
|
| of people disabled at age 70. In order to get a pure period index
|
of people disabled at age 70. In order to get a pure period index
|
| (i.e. based only on incidences) we use the </span><a
|
(i.e. based only on incidences) we use the <a
|
| href="#Stationary prevalence in each state"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">computed or
|
href="#Stationary prevalence in each state">computed or
|
| stationary prevalence</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> at age 70 (i.e. computed from
|
stationary prevalence</a> at age 70 (i.e. computed from
|
| incidences at earlier ages) instead of the </span><a
|
incidences at earlier ages) instead of the <a
|
| href="#Observed prevalence in each state"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
href="#Observed prevalence in each state">observed prevalence</a>
|
| EN-GB">observed prevalence</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
(for example at first exam) (<a href="#Health expectancies">see
|
| EN-GB"></a>
|
below</a>).</p>
|
| (for example at first exam) (</span><a href="#Health expectancies"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">see
|
|
| below</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Variances of life
|
|
|
expectancies by age and initial health status</b></font><b>: </b><a
|
| <h5
|
href="vrbiaspar.txt"><b>vrbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
|
| Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a
|
<p>For example, the covariances of life expectancies Cov(ei,ej)
|
| href="vrbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">vrbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
at age 50 are (line 3) </p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<pre> Cov(e1,e1)=0.4776 Cov(e1,e2)=0.0488=Cov(e2,e1) Cov(e2,e2)=0.0424</pre>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">For
|
|
| example, the covariances of life expectancies Cov(ei,ej) at age
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- </b></font><a
|
| 50 are (line 3) <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
name="Health expectancies"><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>Health
|
|
|
expectancies</b></font></a><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">Cov(e1,e1)=0.4776<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Cov(e1,e2)=0.0488=Cov(e2,e1)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Cov(e2,e2)=0.0424<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
with standard errors in parentheses</b></font><b>: </b><a
|
|
|
href="trbiaspar.txt"><font face="Courier New"><b>trbiaspar.txt</b></font></a></h5>
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
|
| <a name="Health_expectancies">Health expectancies</a> with
|
|
| standard errors in parentheses</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a href="trbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family:"Courier New";
|
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">trbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) e.1 (std) e.2 (std) <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) e.1 (std) e.2 (std) </pre>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">70 13.76 (0.22) 10.40 (0.20) 3.35 (0.14) <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre>70 13.26 (0.22) 9.95 (0.20) 3.30 (0.14) </pre>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Thus, at age 70 the total life expectancy, e..=13.26 years is
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Thus,
|
the weighted mean of e1.=13.46 and e2.=11.35 by the stationary
|
| at age 70 the total life expectancy, e..=13.76years is the
|
|
| weighted mean of e1.=13.96 and e2.=11.85 by the stationary
|
|
| prevalence at age 70 which are 0.90134 in state 1 and 0.09866 in
|
prevalence at age 70 which are 0.90134 in state 1 and 0.09866 in
|
| state 2, respectively (the sum is equal to one). e.1=10.40 is the
|
state 2, respectively (the sum is equal to one). e.1=9.95 is the
|
| Disability-free life expectancy at age 70 (it is again a weighted
|
Disability-free life expectancy at age 70 (it is again a weighted
|
| mean of e11 and e21). e.2=3.35 is also the life expectancy at age
|
mean of e11 and e21). e.2=3.30 is also the life expectancy at age
|
| 70 to be spent in the disability state.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
70 to be spent in the disability state.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-Total
|
|
| life expectancy by age and health expectancies in states
|
|
| (1=healthy) and (2=disable)</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a href="ebiaspar1.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">ebiaspar1.gif</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
|
| figure represents the health expectancies and the total life
|
|
| expectancy with the confident interval in dashed curve. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><img
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>-Total life expectancy by
|
| src="ebiaspar1.gif" width="400" height="300" id="_x0000_i1042"></pre>
|
age and health expectancies in states (1=healthy) and (2=disable)</b></font><b>:
|
| |
</b><a href="ebiaspar1.gif"><b>ebiaspar1.gif</b></a></h5>
|
| |
|
| |
<p>This figure represents the health expectancies and the total
|
| |
life expectancy with the confident interval in dashed curve. </p>
|
| |
|
| |
<pre> <img src="ebiaspar1.gif" width="400" height="300"></pre>
|
| |
|
| |
<p>Standard deviations (obtained from the information matrix of
|
| |
the model) of these quantities are very useful.
|
| |
Cross-longitudinal surveys are costly and do not involve huge
|
| |
samples, generally a few thousands; therefore it is very
|
| |
important to have an idea of the standard deviation of our
|
| |
estimates. It has been a big challenge to compute the Health
|
| |
Expectancy standard deviations. Don't be confuse: life expectancy
|
| |
is, as any expected value, the mean of a distribution; but here
|
| |
we are not computing the standard deviation of the distribution,
|
| |
but the standard deviation of the estimate of the mean.</p>
|
| |
|
| |
<p>Our health expectancies estimates vary according to the sample
|
| |
size (and the standard deviations give confidence intervals of
|
| |
the estimate) but also according to the model fitted. Let us
|
| |
explain it in more details.</p>
|
| |
|
| |
<p>Choosing a model means ar least two kind of choices. First we
|
| |
have to decide the number of disability states. Second we have to
|
| |
design, within the logit model family, the model: variables,
|
| |
covariables, confonding factors etc. to be included.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>More disability states we have, better is our demographical
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Standard
|
approach of the disability process, but smaller are the number of
|
| deviations (obtained from the information matrix of the model) of
|
|
| these quantities are very useful. Cross-longitudinal surveys are
|
|
| costly and do not involve huge samples, generally a few
|
|
| thousands; therefore it is very important to have an idea of the
|
|
| standard deviation of our estimates. It has been a big challenge
|
|
| to compute the Health Expectancy standard deviations. Don't be
|
|
| confuse: life expectancy is, as any expected value, the mean of a
|
|
| distribution; but here we are not computing the standard
|
|
| deviation of the distribution, but the standard deviation of the
|
|
| estimate of the mean.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Our
|
|
| health expectancies estimates vary according to the sample size
|
|
| (and the standard deviations give confidence intervals of the
|
|
| estimate) but also according to the model fitted. Let us explain
|
|
| it in more details.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Choosing
|
|
| a model means at least two kind of choices. First we have to
|
|
| decide the number of disability states. Second we have to design,
|
|
| within the logit model family, the model: variables, covariables,
|
|
| confounding factors etc. to be included.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">More
|
|
| disability states we have, better is our demographical approach
|
|
| of the disability process, but smaller are the number of
|
|
| transitions between each state and higher is the noise in the
|
transitions between each state and higher is the noise in the
|
| measurement. We do not have enough experiments of the various
|
measurement. We do not have enough experiments of the various
|
| models to summarize the advantages and disadvantages, but it is
|
models to summarize the advantages and disadvantages, but it is
|
|
Line 1707 population. Our main purpose is not to m
|
Line 937 population. Our main purpose is not to m
|
| mortality but to measure the expected time in a healthy or
|
mortality but to measure the expected time in a healthy or
|
| disability state in order to maximise the former and minimize the
|
disability state in order to maximise the former and minimize the
|
| latter. But the differential in mortality complexifies the
|
latter. But the differential in mortality complexifies the
|
| measurement.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
measurement.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Incidences of disability or recovery are not affected by the
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Incidences
|
number of states if these states are independant. But incidences
|
| of disability or recovery are not affected by the number of
|
estimates are dependant on the specification of the model. More
|
| states if these states are independant. But incidences estimates
|
covariates we added in the logit model better is the model, but
|
| are dependant on the specification of the model. More covariates
|
some covariates are not well measured, some are confounding
|
| we added in the logit model better is the model, but some
|
factors like in any statistical model. The procedure to "fit
|
| covariates are not well measured, some are confounding factors
|
the best model' is similar to logistic regression which itself is
|
| like in any statistical model. The procedure to "fit the
|
similar to regression analysis. We haven't yet been sofar because
|
| best model' is similar to logistic regression which itself is
|
we also have a severe limitation which is the speed of the
|
| similar to regression analysis. We haven't yet been so far
|
convergence. On a Pentium III, 500 MHz, even the simplest model,
|
| because we also have a severe limitation which is the speed of
|
estimated by month on 8,000 people may take 4 hours to converge.
|
| the convergence. On a Pentium III, 500 MHz, even the simplest
|
Also, the program is not yet a statistical package, which permits
|
| model, estimated by month on 8,000 people may take 4 hours to
|
a simple writing of the variables and the model to take into
|
| converge. Also, the program is not yet a statistical package,
|
account in the maximisation. The actual program allows only to
|
| which permits a simple writing of the variables and the model to
|
add simple variables like age+sex or age+sex+ age*sex but will
|
| take into account in the maximisation. The actual program allows
|
never be general enough. But what is to remember, is that
|
| only to add simple variables like age+sex or age+sex+ age*sex but
|
|
| will never be general enough. But what is to remember, is that
|
|
| incidences or probability of change from one state to another is
|
incidences or probability of change from one state to another is
|
| affected by the variables specified into the model.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
affected by the variables specified into the model.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Also, the age range of the people interviewed has a link with
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Also,
|
the age range of the life expectancy which can be estimated by
|
| the age range of the people interviewed has a link with the age
|
|
| range of the life expectancy which can be estimated by
|
|
| extrapolation. If your sample ranges from age 70 to 95, you can
|
extrapolation. If your sample ranges from age 70 to 95, you can
|
| clearly estimate a life expectancy at age 70 and trust your
|
clearly estimate a life expectancy at age 70 and trust your
|
| confidence interval which is mostly based on your sample size,
|
confidence interval which is mostly based on your sample size,
|
| but if you want to estimate the life expectancy at age 50, you
|
but if you want to estimate the life expectancy at age 50, you
|
| should rely in your model, but fitting a logistic model on a age
|
should rely in your model, but fitting a logistic model on a age
|
| range of 70-95 and estimating probabilities of transition out of
|
range of 70-95 and estimating probabilties of transition out of
|
| this age range, say at age 50 is very dangerous. At least you
|
this age range, say at age 50 is very dangerous. At least you
|
| should remember that the confidence interval given by the
|
should remember that the confidence interval given by the
|
| standard deviation of the health expectancies, are under the
|
standard deviation of the health expectancies, are under the
|
| strong assumption that your model is the 'true model', which is
|
strong assumption that your model is the 'true model', which is
|
| probably not the case.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
probably not the case.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Copy of the parameter
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
file</b></font><b>: </b><a href="orbiaspar.txt"><b>orbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
| Copy of the parameter file</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">: </span><a href="orbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">orbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>This copy of the parameter file can be useful to re-run the
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
program while saving the old output files. </p>
|
| copy of the parameter file can be useful to re-run the program
|
|
| while saving the old output files. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Prevalence forecasting</b></font><b>:
|
|
|
</b><a href="frbiaspar.txt"><b>frbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
|
| Prevalence forecasting</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a href="frbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">frbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">First,
|
style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt">First,
|
| we have estimated the observed prevalence between 1/1/1984 and
|
we have estimated the observed prevalence between 1/1/1984 and
|
| 1/6/1988. <span style="mso-spacerun:
|
1/6/1988. The mean date of interview (weighed average of the
|
| yes"> </span>The mean date of interview (weighed average of
|
interviews performed between1/1/1984 and 1/6/1988) is estimated
|
| the interviews performed between1/1/1984 and 1/6/1988) is
|
to be 13/9/1985, as written on the top on the file. Then we
|
| estimated to be 13/9/1985, as written on the top on the file.
|
forecast the probability to be in each state. </p>
|
| Then we forecast the probability to be in each state. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Example,
|
style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt">Example,
|
| at date 1/1/1989 : <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
at date 1/1/1989 : </p>
|
|
|
|
| <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE"># StartingAge FinalAge P.1 P.2 P.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Forecasting at date 1/1/1989 <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
<pre class="MsoNormal"># StartingAge FinalAge P.1 P.2 P.3
|
|
|
# Forecasting at date 1/1/1989
|
| <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">73 0.807 0.078 0.115 <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
73 0.807 0.078 0.115</pre>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Since
|
style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt">Since
|
| the minimum age is 70 on the 13/9/1985, the youngest forecasted
|
the minimum age is 70 on the 13/9/1985, the youngest forecasted
|
| age is 73. This means that at age a person aged 70 at 13/9/1989
|
age is 73. This means that at age a person aged 70 at 13/9/1989
|
| has a probability to enter state1 of 0.807 at age 73 on 1/1/1989.
|
has a probability to enter state1 of 0.807 at age 73 on 1/1/1989.
|
| Similarly, the probability to be in state 2 is 0.078 and the
|
Similarly, the probability to be in state 2 is 0.078 and the
|
| probability to die is 0.115. Then, on the 1/1/1989, the
|
probability to die is 0.115. Then, on the 1/1/1989, the
|
| prevalence of disability at age 73 is estimated to be 0.088.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
prevalence of disability at age 73 is estimated to be 0.088.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <h5
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#EC5E5E;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">-
|
|
| Population forecasting</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">: </span><a href="poprbiaspar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">poprbiaspar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Age P.1 P.2 P.3 [Population]<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Forecasting at date 1/1/1989 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">75 572685.22 83798.08 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">74 621296.51 79767.99 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">73 645857.70 69320.60 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Population forecasting</b></font><b>:
|
| |
</b><a href="poprbiaspar.txt"><b>poprbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># Forecasting at date 1/1/1990<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<pre># Age P.1 P.2 P.3 [Population]
|
|
|
# Forecasting at date 1/1/1989
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify">76 442986.68 92721.14 120775.48</pre>
|
75 572685.22 83798.08
|
|
|
74 621296.51 79767.99
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify">75 487781.02 91367.97 121915.51</pre>
|
73 645857.70 69320.60 </pre>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify">74 512892.07 85003.47 117282.76 </pre>
|
<pre># Forecasting at date 1/1/19909
|
|
|
76 442986.68 92721.14 120775.48
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"> <o:p></o:p></pre>
|
75 487781.02 91367.97 121915.51
|
|
|
74 512892.07 85003.47 117282.76 </pre>
|
| <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">From the population file, we estimate the
|
|
| number of people in each state. At age 73, 645857 persons are in
|
<p>From the population file, we estimate the number of people in
|
| state 1 and 69320 are in state 2. One year latter, 512892 are
|
each state. At age 73, 645857 persons are in state 1 and 69320
|
| still in state 1, 85003 are in state 2 and 117282 died before
|
are in state 2. One year latter, 512892 are still in state 1,
|
| 1/1/1990.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
85003 are in state 2 and 117282 died before 1/1/1990.</p>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <hr>
|
<hr>
|
|
|
|
| <h2
|
<h2><a name="example"></a><font color="#00006A">Trying an example</font></h2>
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><a
|
|
| name="example"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color:#00006A;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>Trying an example</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></h2>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Since you know how to run the program, it is time to test it
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Since
|
on your own computer. Try for example on a parameter file named <a
|
| you know how to run the program, it is time to test it on your
|
href="..\mytry\imachpar.txt">imachpar.txt</a> which is a copy of <font
|
| own computer. Try for example on a parameter file named </span><a
|
size="2" face="Courier New">mypar.txt</font> included in the
|
| href="..\mytry\imachpar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">imachpar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> which is a copy of </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">
|
subdirectory of imach, <font size="2" face="Courier New">mytry</font>.
|
| included in the subdirectory of imach, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
|
Edit it to change the name of the data file to <font size="2"
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mytry</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
face="Courier New">..\data\mydata.txt</font> if you don't want to
|
| EN-GB">. Edit it to change
|
copy it on the same directory. The file <font face="Courier New">mydata.txt</font>
|
| the name of the data file to </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-ansi-language:
|
is a smaller file of 3,000 people but still with 4 waves. </p>
|
| EN-GB">..\data\mydata.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> if you don't want
|
|
| to copy it on the same directory. The file </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family:"Courier New";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mydata.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> is a
|
|
| smaller file of 3,000 people but still with 4 waves. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Click on the imach.exe icon to open a window. Answer to the
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Click
|
question:'<strong>Enter the parameter file name:'</strong></p>
|
| on the imach.exe icon to open a window. Answer to the question: '<strong>Enter
|
|
| the parameter file name:'<o:p></o:p></span></strong></p>
|
<table border="1">
|
|
|
|
| <table border="1" cellpadding="0"
|
|
| style="mso-cellspacing:1.5pt;mso-padding-alt:
|
|
| 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm">
|
|
| <tr>
|
<tr>
|
| <td width="100%"
|
<td width="100%"><strong>IMACH, Version 0.71</strong><p><strong>Enter
|
| style="width:100.0%;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">IMACH,
|
the parameter file name: ..\mytry\imachpar.txt</strong></p>
|
| Version 0.7</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></strong><p style="text-align:justify"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">Enter
|
|
| the parameter file name: ..\mytry\imachpar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p>
|
|
| </td>
|
</td>
|
| </tr>
|
</tr>
|
| </table>
|
</table>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Most of the data files or image files generated, will use the
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Most
|
|
| of the data files or image files generated, will use the
|
|
| 'imachpar' string into their name. The running time is about 2-3
|
'imachpar' string into their name. The running time is about 2-3
|
| minutes on a Pentium III. If the execution worked correctly, the
|
minutes on a Pentium III. If the execution worked correctly, the
|
| outputs files are created in the current directory, and should be
|
outputs files are created in the current directory, and should be
|
| the same as the mypar files initially included in the directory </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mytry</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
the same as the mypar files initially included in the directory <font
|
|
|
size="2" face="Courier New">mytry</font>.</p>
|
| <pre
|
|
| style="margin-left:36.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo43"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family:Symbol;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">·<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span><u><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Output on the screen</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></u> The output screen looks like </span><a
|
|
| href="imachrun.LOG"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">this Log file</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">#title=MLE datafile=..\data\mydata.txt lastobs=3000 firstpass=1 lastpass=3<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">ftol=1.000000e-008 stepm=24 ncov=2 nlstate=2 ndeath=1 maxwav=4 mle=1 weight=0<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Total number of individuals= 2965, Agemin = 70.00, Agemax= 100.92<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Warning, no any valid information for:126 line=126<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Warning, no any valid information for:2307 line=2307<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Delay (in months) between two waves Min=21 Max=51 Mean=24.495826<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">These lines give some warnings on the data file and also some raw statistics on frequencies of transitions.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<ul>
|
| |
<li><pre><u>Output on the screen</u> The output screen looks like <a
|
| |
href="imachrun.LOG">this Log file</a>
|
| |
#
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Age 70 1.=230 loss[1]=3.5% 2.=16 loss[2]=12.5% 1.=222 prev[1]=94.1% 2.=14<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
title=MLE datafile=..\data\mydata.txt lastobs=3000 firstpass=1 lastpass=3
|
| |
ftol=1.000000e-008 stepm=24 ncov=2 nlstate=2 ndeath=1 maxwav=4 mle=1 weight=0</pre>
|
| |
</li>
|
| |
<li><pre>Total number of individuals= 2965, Agemin = 70.00, Agemax= 100.92
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> prev[2]=5.9% 1-1=8 11=200 12=7 13=15 2-1=2 21=6 22=7 23=1<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
Warning, no any valid information for:126 line=126
|
| |
Warning, no any valid information for:2307 line=2307
|
| |
Delay (in months) between two waves Min=21 Max=51 Mean=24.495826
|
| |
<font face="Times New Roman">These lines give some warnings on the data file and also some raw statistics on frequencies of transitions.</font>
|
| |
Age 70 1.=230 loss[1]=3.5% 2.=16 loss[2]=12.5% 1.=222 prev[1]=94.1% 2.=14
|
| |
prev[2]=5.9% 1-1=8 11=200 12=7 13=15 2-1=2 21=6 22=7 23=1
|
| |
Age 102 1.=0 loss[1]=NaNQ% 2.=0 loss[2]=NaNQ% 1.=0 prev[1]=NaNQ% 2.=0 </pre>
|
| |
</li>
|
| |
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Age 102 1.=0 loss[1]=NaNQ% 2.=0 loss[2]=NaNQ% 1.=0 prev[1]=NaNQ% 2.=0 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<p> </p>
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<ul>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li>Maximisation with the Powell algorithm. 8 directions are
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
given corresponding to the 8 parameters. this can be
|
| mso-list:l6 level1 lfo46;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Maximisation
|
rather long to get convergence.<br>
|
| with the Powell algorithm. 8 directions are given
|
<font size="1" face="Courier New"><br>
|
| corresponding to the 8 parameters. This can be rather
|
|
| long to get convergence.<br>
|
|
| </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Courier New";
|
|
| mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <br>
|
|
| Powell iter=1 -2*LL=11531.405658264877 1 0.000000000000 2
|
Powell iter=1 -2*LL=11531.405658264877 1 0.000000000000 2
|
| 0.000000000000 3<br>
|
0.000000000000 3<br>
|
| 0.000000000000 4 0.000000000000 5 0.000000000000 6
|
0.000000000000 4 0.000000000000 5 0.000000000000 6
|
|
Line 1925 href="imachrun.LOG"><span lang="EN-GB" s
|
Line 1104 href="imachrun.LOG"><span lang="EN-GB" s
|
| 12 -12.966061 0.135117 <br>
|
12 -12.966061 0.135117 <br>
|
| 13 -7.401109 0.067831 <br>
|
13 -7.401109 0.067831 <br>
|
| 21 -0.672648 -0.006627 <br>
|
21 -0.672648 -0.006627 <br>
|
| 23 -5.051297 0.051271 </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
23 -5.051297 0.051271 </font><br>
|
| EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></li>
|
</li>
|
| |
<li><pre><font size="2">Calculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...
|
| |
12345678.12.13.14.15.16.17.18.23.24.25.26.27.28.34.35.36.37.38.45.46.47.48.56.57.58.67.68.78
|
| |
|
| |
Inverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...
|
| |
|
| |
#Hessian matrix#
|
| |
3.344e+002 2.708e+004 -4.586e+001 -3.806e+003 -1.577e+000 -1.313e+002 3.914e-001 3.166e+001
|
| |
2.708e+004 2.204e+006 -3.805e+003 -3.174e+005 -1.303e+002 -1.091e+004 2.967e+001 2.399e+003
|
| |
-4.586e+001 -3.805e+003 4.044e+002 3.197e+004 2.431e-002 1.995e+000 1.783e-001 1.486e+001
|
| |
-3.806e+003 -3.174e+005 3.197e+004 2.541e+006 2.436e+000 2.051e+002 1.483e+001 1.244e+003
|
| |
-1.577e+000 -1.303e+002 2.431e-002 2.436e+000 1.093e+002 8.979e+003 -3.402e+001 -2.843e+003
|
| |
-1.313e+002 -1.091e+004 1.995e+000 2.051e+002 8.979e+003 7.420e+005 -2.842e+003 -2.388e+005
|
| |
3.914e-001 2.967e+001 1.783e-001 1.483e+001 -3.402e+001 -2.842e+003 1.494e+002 1.251e+004
|
| |
3.166e+001 2.399e+003 1.486e+001 1.244e+003 -2.843e+003 -2.388e+005 1.251e+004 1.053e+006
|
| |
# Scales
|
| |
12 1.00000e-004 1.00000e-006
|
| |
13 1.00000e-004 1.00000e-006
|
| |
21 1.00000e-003 1.00000e-005
|
| |
23 1.00000e-004 1.00000e-005
|
| |
# Covariance
|
| |
1 5.90661e-001
|
| |
2 -7.26732e-003 8.98810e-005
|
| |
3 8.80177e-002 -1.12706e-003 5.15824e-001
|
| |
4 -1.13082e-003 1.45267e-005 -6.50070e-003 8.23270e-005
|
| |
5 9.31265e-003 -1.16106e-004 6.00210e-004 -8.04151e-006 1.75753e+000
|
| |
6 -1.15664e-004 1.44850e-006 -7.79995e-006 1.04770e-007 -2.12929e-002 2.59422e-004
|
| |
7 1.35103e-003 -1.75392e-005 -6.38237e-004 7.85424e-006 4.02601e-001 -4.86776e-003 1.32682e+000
|
| |
8 -1.82421e-005 2.35811e-007 7.75503e-006 -9.58687e-008 -4.86589e-003 5.91641e-005 -1.57767e-002 1.88622e-004
|
| |
# agemin agemax for lifexpectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
agemin=70 agemax=100 bage=50 fage=100
|
| |
Computing prevalence limit: result on file 'plrmypar.txt'
|
| |
Computing pij: result on file 'pijrmypar.txt'
|
| |
Computing Health Expectancies: result on file 'ermypar.txt'
|
| |
Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file 'vrmypar.txt'
|
| |
Computing Total LEs with variances: file 'trmypar.txt'
|
| |
Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file 'vplrmypar.txt'
|
| |
End of Imach
|
| |
</font></pre>
|
| |
</li>
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <pre
|
<p><font size="3">Once the running is finished, the program
|
| style="margin-left:36.0pt;text-align:justify;text-indent:-18.0pt;
|
requires a caracter:</font></p>
|
| mso-list:l6 level1 lfo46"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family:Symbol;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">·<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Calculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">12345678.12.13.14.15.16.17.18.23.24.25.26.27.28.34.35.36.37.38.45.46.47.48.56.57.58.67.68.78<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Inverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. </span>Wait...</pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"> <o:p></o:p></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify">#Hessian matrix#</pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">3.344e+002 2.708e+004 -4.586e+001 -3.806e+003 -1.577e+000 -1.313e+002 3.914e-001 3.166e+001 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">2.708e+004 2.204e+006 -3.805e+003 -3.174e+005 -1.303e+002 -1.091e+004 2.967e+001 2.399e+003 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">-4.586e+001 -3.805e+003 4.044e+002 3.197e+004 2.431e-002 1.995e+000 1.783e-001 1.486e+001 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">-3.806e+003 -3.174e+005 3.197e+004 2.541e+006 2.436e+000 2.051e+002 1.483e+001 1.244e+003 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">-1.577e+000 -1.303e+002 2.431e-002 2.436e+000 1.093e+002 8.979e+003 -3.402e+001 -2.843e+003 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">-1.313e+002 -1.091e+004 1.995e+000 2.051e+002 8.979e+003 7.420e+005 -2.842e+003 -2.388e+005 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">3.914e-001 2.967e+001 1.783e-001 1.483e+001 -3.402e+001 -2.842e+003 1.494e+002 1.251e+004 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">3.166e+001 2.399e+003 1.486e+001 1.244e+003 -2.843e+003 -2.388e+005 1.251e+004 1.053e+006 <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
<table border="1">
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"># Scales<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:
|
|
| justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">12 1.00000e-004 1.00000e-006<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE">13 1.00000e-004 1.00000e-006<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:
|
|
| 18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE">21 1.00000e-003 1.00000e-005<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE">23 1.00000e-004 1.00000e-005<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:
|
|
| 18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:DE"># Covariance<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>1 5.90661e-001<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>2 -7.26732e-003 8.98810e-005<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>3 8.80177e-002 -1.12706e-003 5.15824e-001<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>4 -1.13082e-003 1.45267e-005 -6.50070e-003 8.23270e-005<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>5 9.31265e-003 -1.16106e-004 6.00210e-004 -8.04151e-006 1.75753e+000<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>6 -1.15664e-004 1.44850e-006 -7.79995e-006 1.04770e-007 -2.12929e-002 2.59422e-004<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>7 1.35103e-003 -1.75392e-005 -6.38237e-004 7.85424e-006 4.02601e-001 -4.86776e-003 1.32682e+000<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| DE"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>8 -1.82421e-005 2.35811e-007 7.75503e-006 -9.58687e-008 -4.86589e-003 5.91641e-005 -1.57767e-002 1.88622e-004<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"># agemin agemax for lifexpectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"> <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">agemin=70 agemax=100 bage=50 fage=100<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing prevalence limit: result on file 'plrmypar.txt' <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing pij: result on file 'pijrmypar.txt' <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing Health Expectancies: result on file 'ermypar.txt' <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file 'vrmypar.txt' <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing Total LEs with variances: file 'trmypar.txt' <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file 'vplrmypar.txt' <o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <pre style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">End of Imach<o:p></o:p></span></pre>
|
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
|
| style="text-align:justify;tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Once
|
|
| the running is finished, the program requires a caracter:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <table border="1" cellpadding="0"
|
|
| style="mso-cellspacing:1.5pt;mso-padding-alt:
|
|
| 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm">
|
|
| <tr>
|
<tr>
|
| <td width="100%"
|
<td width="100%"><strong>Type e to edit output files, c
|
| style="width:100.0%;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt"><strong><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Type
|
to start again, and q for exiting:</strong></td>
|
| e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for
|
|
| exiting:</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></td>
|
|
| </tr>
|
</tr>
|
| </table>
|
</table>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p><font size="3">First you should enter <strong>e </strong>to
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">First
|
edit the master file mypar.htm. </font></p>
|
| you should enter <strong>e </strong>to edit the master file
|
|
| mypar.htm. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
|
|
|
|
| <ul type="disc">
|
<ul>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
<li><u>Outputs files</u> <br>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
|
| mso-list:l9 level1 lfo49;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><u><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Outputs
|
|
| files</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></u> <br>
|
|
| <br>
|
<br>
|
| - Observed prevalence in each state: </span><a
|
- Observed prevalence in each state: <a
|
| href="..\mytry\prmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">pmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
href="..\mytry\prmypar.txt">pmypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: </span><a
|
- Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a
|
| href="..\mytry\rmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">rmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
href="..\mytry\rmypar.txt">rmypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| - Stationary prevalence in each state: </span><a
|
- Stationary prevalence in each state: <a
|
| href="..\mytry\plrmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
href="..\mytry\plrmypar.txt">plrmypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| EN-GB">plrmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
- Transition probabilities: <a
|
| EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
href="..\mytry\pijrmypar.txt">pijrmypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| - Transition probabilities: </span><a
|
- Copy of the parameter file: <a
|
| href="..\mytry\pijrmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">pijrmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
href="..\mytry\ormypar.txt">ormypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| - Copy of the parameter file: </span><a
|
- Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a
|
| href="..\mytry\ormypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">ormypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
href="..\mytry\ermypar.txt">ermypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: </span><a
|
|
| href="..\mytry\ermypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">ermypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
|
| - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial
|
- Variances of life expectancies by age and initial
|
| health status: </span><a href="..\mytry\vrmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
health status: <a href="..\mytry\vrmypar.txt">vrmypar.txt</a>
|
| EN-GB">vrmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"></a>
|
|
| <br>
|
<br>
|
| - Health expectancies with their variances: </span><a
|
- Health expectancies with their variances: <a
|
| href="..\mytry\trmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
href="..\mytry\trmypar.txt">trmypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| EN-GB">trmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
- Standard deviation of stationary prevalence: <a
|
| EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
href="..\mytry\vplrmypar.txt">vplrmypar.txt</a><br>
|
| - Standard deviation of stationary prevalence: </span><a
|
- Prevalences forecasting: <a href="frmypar.txt">frmypar.txt</a>
|
| href="..\mytry\vplrmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">vplrmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"></a><br>
|
|
| - Prevalences forecasting: </span><a href="frmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">frmypar.txt</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>
|
|
| <br>
|
<br>
|
| - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): </span><a
|
- Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a
|
| href="poprmypar.txt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">poprmypar.txt</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
|
href="poprmypar.txt">poprmypar.txt</a> <br>
|
| <li class="MsoNormal"
|
</li>
|
| style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
|
<li><u>Graphs</u> <br>
|
| mso-list:l9 level1 lfo49;tab-stops:list 36.0pt"><u><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Graphs</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></u>
|
|
| <br>
|
<br>
|
| <br>
|
-<a href="../mytry/pemypar1.gif">One-step transition
|
| -</span><a href="..\mytry\pemypar1.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
probabilities</a><br>
|
| EN-GB">One-step transition
|
-<a href="../mytry/pmypar11.gif">Convergence to the
|
| probabilities</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a><br>
|
stationary prevalence</a><br>
|
| -</span><a href="..\mytry\pmypar11.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
-<a href="..\mytry\vmypar11.gif">Observed and stationary
|
| EN-GB">Convergence to the
|
prevalence in state (1) with the confident interval</a> <br>
|
| stationary prevalence</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a><br>
|
-<a href="..\mytry\vmypar21.gif">Observed and stationary
|
| -</span><a href="..\mytry\vmypar11.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
prevalence in state (2) with the confident interval</a> <br>
|
| EN-GB">Observed and stationary
|
-<a href="..\mytry\expmypar11.gif">Health life
|
| prevalence in state (1) with the confident interval</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
expectancies by age and initial health state (1)</a> <br>
|
| -</span><a href="..\mytry\vmypar21.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
-<a href="..\mytry\expmypar21.gif">Health life
|
| EN-GB">Observed and stationary
|
expectancies by age and initial health state (2)</a> <br>
|
| prevalence in state (2) with the confident interval</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
-<a href="..\mytry\emypar1.gif">Total life expectancy by
|
| -</span><a href="..\mytry\expmypar11.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Health life
|
age and health expectancies in states (1) and (2).</a> </li>
|
| expectancies by age and initial health state (1)</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
|
| -</span><a href="..\mytry\expmypar21.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Health life
|
|
| expectancies by age and initial health state (2)</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB"></a> <br>
|
|
| -</span><a href="..\mytry\emypar1.gif"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:
|
|
| EN-GB">Total life expectancy by
|
|
| age and health expectancies in states (1) and (2).</span><span style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> <span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></li>
|
|
| </ul>
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>This software have been partly granted by <a
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">This
|
href="http://euroreves.ined.fr">Euro-REVES</a>, a concerted
|
| software have been partly granted by </span><a
|
|
| href="http://euroreves.ined.fr"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Euro-REVES</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a>, a concerted
|
|
| action from the European Union. It will be copyrighted
|
action from the European Union. It will be copyrighted
|
| identically to a GNU software product, i.e. program and software
|
identically to a GNU software product, i.e. program and software
|
| can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Sources are not
|
can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Sources are not
|
| widely distributed today. You can get them by asking us with a
|
widely distributed today. You can get them by asking us with a
|
| simple justification (name, email, institute) </span><a
|
simple justification (name, email, institute) <a
|
| href="mailto:brouard@ined.fr"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mailto:brouard@ined.fr</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> and </span><a
|
href="mailto:brouard@ined.fr">mailto:brouard@ined.fr</a> and <a
|
| href="mailto:lievre@ined.fr"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">mailto:lievre@ined.fr</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"></a> .<o:p></o:p></span></p>
|
href="mailto:lievre@ined.fr">mailto:lievre@ined.fr</a> .</p>
|
|
|
|
| <p
|
<p>Latest version (0.71a of March 2002) can be accessed at <a
|
| style="tab-stops:45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">Latest
|
href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach">http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach</a><br>
|
| version (0.7 of February 2002) can be accessed at </span><a
|
</p>
|
| href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB">http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></a></p>
|
|
| </body>
|
</body>
|
| </html>
|
</html>
|
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