Forecasting

diff --git a/src/imach.c b/src/imach.c
index 2733ce0d9b32e9ae1bf8218cdf3ecbe291447a1e..70851b90fee5aa8b33fce6321646edd3a5358762 100644 (file)
--- a/src/imach.c
+++ b/src/imach.c
@@ -1150,13 +1150,13 @@ void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])
 } \r
 \r
 /************ Frequencies ********************/\r
-void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1,double **mint,double **anint)\r
+void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1,double **mint,double **anint, int boolprev, double dateprev1,double dateprev2)\r
 {  /* Some frequencies */\r
  \r
-  int i, m, jk, k1, k2,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;\r
+  int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;\r
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */\r
   double *pp;\r
-  double pos;\r
+  double pos, k2;\r
   FILE *ficresp;\r
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];\r
 \r
@@ -1191,16 +1191,26 @@ void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) \r
               bool=0;\r
         }\r
-         if (bool==1) {\r
-           for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){\r
+        if (bool==1) {\r
+          if (boolprev==1){\r
+            for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){\r
+              if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;\r
+              if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;\r
+              freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];\r
+              freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];\r
+            }\r
+          }\r
+          else {\r
+           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){\r
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);\r
-            if ((k2>=1984) && (k2<=1988.5)) {\r
+            if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {\r
             if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;\r
             if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;\r
             freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];\r
             freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];\r
             }\r
            }\r
+          }\r
          }\r
        }\r
         if  (cptcovn>0) {\r
@@ -1269,13 +1279,13 @@ void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev
 }  /* End of Freq */\r
 \r
 /************ Prevalence ********************/\r
-void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1)\r
+void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1, double **mint,double **anint,int boolprev, double dateprev1, double dateprev2)\r
 {  /* Some frequencies */\r
  \r
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;\r
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */\r
   double *pp;\r
-  double pos;\r
+  double pos, k2;\r
 \r
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);\r
   probs= ma3x(1,130 ,1,8, 1,8);\r
@@ -1303,21 +1313,34 @@ void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int
              bool=0;\r
              }\r
        if (bool==1) {\r
-         for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){\r
-           if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;\r
-           if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;\r
-           freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];\r
-           freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];\r
+         if (boolprev==1){\r
+           for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){\r
+             if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;\r
+             if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;\r
+             freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];\r
+             freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];\r
+           }\r
+         }\r
+         else {\r
+           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){\r
+             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);\r
+             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {\r
+               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;\r
+               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;\r
+               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];\r
+               freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];\r
+             }\r
+           }\r
          }\r
        }\r
       }\r
-       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){ \r
-       for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){\r
-         for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)\r
-           pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; \r
-       }\r
-       for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){\r
-         for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)\r
+       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){ \r
+         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){\r
+           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)\r
+             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; \r
+         }\r
+         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){\r
+           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)\r
            pos += freq[jk][m][i];\r
        }\r
        \r
@@ -1336,7 +1359,7 @@ void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int
           }\r
         }\r
         \r
-        }\r
+       }\r
     }\r
   }\r
   \r
@@ -1873,7 +1896,7 @@ int main()
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab; \r
   int mobilav=0, fprev, lprev ,fprevfore=1, lprevfore=1,nforecast,popforecast=0;\r
   int hstepm, nhstepm;\r
-  int *popage;\r
+  int *popage,boolprev=0;/*boolprev=0 if date and zero if wave*/\r
 \r
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;\r
   double ftolpl=FTOL;\r
@@ -1889,6 +1912,7 @@ int main()
   double *epj, vepp;\r
   double kk1, kk2;\r
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;\r
+  double dateprev1, dateprev2;\r
 \r
   char version[80]="Imach version 64b, May 2001, INED-EUROREVES ";\r
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];\r
@@ -1898,6 +1922,8 @@ int main()
 #include <sys/time.h>\r
 #include <time.h>\r
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];\r
+  char strfprev[10], strlprev[10];\r
+  char strfprevfore[10], strlprevfore[10];\r
   /* long total_usecs;\r
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;\r
   \r
@@ -1960,9 +1986,11 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
   }\r
   ungetc(c,ficpar);\r
   \r
-  fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d pop_based=%d\n",&fprev,&lprev,&popbased);\r
-  fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d pop_based=%d\n",fprev,lprev,popbased);\r
+  fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,&popbased);\r
+  fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,popbased);\r
  \r
+  /* printf("%s %s",strfprev,strlprev);\r
+     exit(0);*/\r
  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){\r
     ungetc(c,ficpar);\r
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);\r
@@ -1971,8 +1999,8 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
   }\r
   ungetc(c,ficpar);\r
   \r
-  fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",&fprevfore,&lprevfore,&nforecast,&mobilav);\r
-  fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",fprevfore,lprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);\r
+  fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,&nforecast,&mobilav);\r
+  fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);\r
      \r
   \r
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){\r
@@ -2329,10 +2357,25 @@ printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx,
     \r
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age\r
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */\r
-  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprev, lprev,mint,anint);\r
-  \r
-  free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);\r
-  free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);\r
+\r
+    if ((nbocc(strfprev,'/')==1) && (nbocc(strlprev,'/')==1)){\r
+     boolprev=0;\r
+     cutv(stra,strb,strfprev,'/');\r
+     dateprev1=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);\r
+     cutv(stra,strb,strlprev,'/');\r
+     dateprev2=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);\r
+   }\r
+   \r
+   else if ((nbocc(strfprev,'/')==0) &&(nbocc(strlprev,'/')==0)){\r
+     boolprev=1;\r
+     fprev=atoi(strfprev); lprev=atoi(strlprev);\r
+   }\r
+    else {\r
+      printf("Error in statement lprevalence or fprevalence\n");\r
+      goto end;\r
+    }\r
+   \r
+  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprev, lprev,mint,anint,boolprev,dateprev1,dateprev2); \r
   \r
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */\r
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */\r
@@ -2350,8 +2393,8 @@ printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx,
     \r
     /*--------- results files --------------*/\r
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);\r
-   fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d pop_based=%d\n",fprev,lprev,popbased); \r
-   fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",fprevfore,lprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);\r
+   fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,popbased); \r
+   fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);\r
 \r
    jk=1;\r
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");\r
@@ -2393,7 +2436,7 @@ printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx,
          fprintf(ficres,"\n");\r
        }\r
       }\r
-      }\r
+     }\r
     \r
     k=1;\r
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");\r
@@ -2649,7 +2692,7 @@ Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>
         - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\r
         - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\r
         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\r
-        - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\r
+        - Prevalences and population forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\r
 <br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);\r
 \r
  fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");\r
@@ -2797,9 +2840,28 @@ fclose(fichtm);
   }\r
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);\r
 \r
-  prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprevfore, lprevfore);\r
+ if ((nbocc(strfprevfore,'/')==1) && (nbocc(strlprevfore,'/')==1)){\r
+     boolprev=0;\r
+     cutv(stra,strb,strfprevfore,'/');\r
+     dateprev1=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);\r
+     cutv(stra,strb,strlprevfore,'/');\r
+     dateprev2=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);\r
+   }\r
+   \r
+   else if ((nbocc(strfprevfore,'/')==0) &&(nbocc(strlprevfore,'/')==0)){\r
+     boolprev=1;\r
+     fprev=atoi(strfprevfore); lprev=atoi(strlprevfore);\r
+   }\r
+    else {\r
+      printf("Error in statement lprevalence or fprevalence\n");\r
+      goto end;\r
+    }\r
 \r
- free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);\r
+  prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprevfore, lprevfore,mint,anint,boolprev,dateprev1,dateprev2);\r
+  \r
+  free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);\r
+  free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);\r
+  free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);\r
   /* Mobile average */\r
 \r
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;\r