From: Agnès Lièvre <agnes.lievre@education.gouv.fr>
Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2002 17:17:09 +0000 (+0000)
Subject: Forecasting
X-Git-Tag: Version-0-8a~33
X-Git-Url: https://henry.ined.fr/git/?a=commitdiff_plain;h=b0d860d2c597c7203bf18104f940ac8be0159681;p=.git
Forecasting
---
diff --git a/src/imach.c b/src/imach.c
index 2733ce0..70851b9 100644
--- a/src/imach.c
+++ b/src/imach.c
@@ -1150,13 +1150,13 @@ void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])
}
/************ Frequencies ********************/
-void freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1,double **mint,double **anint)
+void freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1,double **mint,double **anint, int boolprev, double dateprev1,double dateprev2)
{ /* Some frequencies */
- int i, m, jk, k1, k2,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
+ int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
double *pp;
- double pos;
+ double pos, k2;
FILE *ficresp;
char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
@@ -1191,16 +1191,26 @@ void freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev
if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])
bool=0;
}
- if (bool==1) {
- for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){
+ if (bool==1) {
+ if (boolprev==1){
+ for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){
+ if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
+ if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
+ freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+ freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
+ }
+ }
+ else {
+ for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
- if ((k2>=1984) && (k2<=1988.5)) {
+ if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
}
}
+ }
}
}
if (cptcovn>0) {
@@ -1269,13 +1279,13 @@ void freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev
} /* End of Freq */
/************ Prevalence ********************/
-void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1)
+void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, int fprev1,int lprev1, double **mint,double **anint,int boolprev, double dateprev1, double dateprev2)
{ /* Some frequencies */
int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
double *pp;
- double pos;
+ double pos, k2;
pp=vector(1,nlstate);
probs= ma3x(1,130 ,1,8, 1,8);
@@ -1303,21 +1313,34 @@ void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int
bool=0;
}
if (bool==1) {
- for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){
- if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
- if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
- freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
- freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
+ if (boolprev==1){
+ for(m=fprev1; m<=lprev1; m++){
+ if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
+ if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
+ freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+ freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
+ }
+ }
+ else {
+ for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
+ k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
+ if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
+ if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
+ if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
+ freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+ freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
+ }
+ }
}
}
}
- for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){
- for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
- for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
- pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
- }
- for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
- for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
+ for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){
+ for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+ for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
+ pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
+ }
+ for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+ for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
pos += freq[jk][m][i];
}
@@ -1336,7 +1359,7 @@ void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int
}
}
- }
+ }
}
}
@@ -1873,7 +1896,7 @@ int main()
int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;
int mobilav=0, fprev, lprev ,fprevfore=1, lprevfore=1,nforecast,popforecast=0;
int hstepm, nhstepm;
- int *popage;
+ int *popage,boolprev=0;/*boolprev=0 if date and zero if wave*/
double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
double ftolpl=FTOL;
@@ -1889,6 +1912,7 @@ int main()
double *epj, vepp;
double kk1, kk2;
double *popeffectif,*popcount;
+ double dateprev1, dateprev2;
char version[80]="Imach version 64b, May 2001, INED-EUROREVES ";
char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
@@ -1898,6 +1922,8 @@ int main()
#include <sys/time.h>
#include <time.h>
char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
+ char strfprev[10], strlprev[10];
+ char strfprevfore[10], strlprevfore[10];
/* long total_usecs;
struct timeval start_time, end_time;
@@ -1960,9 +1986,11 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
}
ungetc(c,ficpar);
- fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d pop_based=%d\n",&fprev,&lprev,&popbased);
- fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d pop_based=%d\n",fprev,lprev,popbased);
+ fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,&popbased);
+ fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,popbased);
+ /* printf("%s %s",strfprev,strlprev);
+ exit(0);*/
while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
ungetc(c,ficpar);
fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
@@ -1971,8 +1999,8 @@ while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
}
ungetc(c,ficpar);
- fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",&fprevfore,&lprevfore,&nforecast,&mobilav);
- fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",fprevfore,lprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);
+ fscanf(ficpar,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,&nforecast,&mobilav);
+ fprintf(ficparo,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);
while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
@@ -2329,10 +2357,25 @@ printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx,
/* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
and prints on file fileres'p'. */
- freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprev, lprev,mint,anint);
-
- free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
- free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+
+ if ((nbocc(strfprev,'/')==1) && (nbocc(strlprev,'/')==1)){
+ boolprev=0;
+ cutv(stra,strb,strfprev,'/');
+ dateprev1=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);
+ cutv(stra,strb,strlprev,'/');
+ dateprev2=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);
+ }
+
+ else if ((nbocc(strfprev,'/')==0) &&(nbocc(strlprev,'/')==0)){
+ boolprev=1;
+ fprev=atoi(strfprev); lprev=atoi(strlprev);
+ }
+ else {
+ printf("Error in statement lprevalence or fprevalence\n");
+ goto end;
+ }
+
+ freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprev, lprev,mint,anint,boolprev,dateprev1,dateprev2);
pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
@@ -2350,8 +2393,8 @@ printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx,
/*--------- results files --------------*/
fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);
- fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d pop_based=%d\n",fprev,lprev,popbased);
- fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%d lprevalence=%d nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",fprevfore,lprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);
+ fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s pop_based=%d\n",strfprev,strlprev,popbased);
+ fprintf(ficres,"fprevalence=%s lprevalence=%s nforecast=%d mob_average=%d\n",strfprevfore,strlprevfore,nforecast,mobilav);
jk=1;
fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");
@@ -2393,7 +2436,7 @@ printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx,
fprintf(ficres,"\n");
}
}
- }
+ }
k=1;
fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");
@@ -2649,7 +2692,7 @@ Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>
- Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>
- Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>
- Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>
- - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>
+ - Prevalences and population forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>
<br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);
fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");
@@ -2797,9 +2840,28 @@ fclose(fichtm);
}
printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
- prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprevfore, lprevfore);
+ if ((nbocc(strfprevfore,'/')==1) && (nbocc(strlprevfore,'/')==1)){
+ boolprev=0;
+ cutv(stra,strb,strfprevfore,'/');
+ dateprev1=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);
+ cutv(stra,strb,strlprevfore,'/');
+ dateprev2=(double)(atoi(strb)+atoi(stra)/12.);
+ }
+
+ else if ((nbocc(strfprevfore,'/')==0) &&(nbocc(strlprevfore,'/')==0)){
+ boolprev=1;
+ fprev=atoi(strfprevfore); lprev=atoi(strlprevfore);
+ }
+ else {
+ printf("Error in statement lprevalence or fprevalence\n");
+ goto end;
+ }
- free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
+ prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax, fprevfore, lprevfore,mint,anint,boolprev,dateprev1,dateprev2);
+
+ free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+ free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+ free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
/* Mobile average */
if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;