In freqsummary, the observed prevalence is now computed from all the
waves and the bug in the forecasting routine is corrected. We can
forecast prevalence if ncov=0.
N. Brouard [Fri, 28 Mar 2003 13:33:56 +0000 (13:33 +0000)]
(Module): In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
(healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
and month of death but the probability to survive from last
interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
Jackson for correcting this bug. Former versions increased
mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
lower mortality. Version 0.93
N. Brouard [Fri, 28 Mar 2003 13:32:54 +0000 (13:32 +0000)]
(Module): In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
(healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
and month of death but the probability to survive from last
interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
Jackson for correcting this bug. Former versions increased
mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
lower mortality.
Agnès Lièvre [Thu, 21 Nov 2002 08:46:21 +0000 (08:46 +0000)]
Extrapolation doesn't seem to work fine, so we decided to use
interpolation only ie at the cost of an additional matrix product if
the bias, bbh, is positive, in order to make it negative
(interpolation).
We keep other methods mle=4 no adjustment for bias, mle=3 inter-extra
exponential, mle=2 inter-extra linear.
N. Brouard [Mon, 18 Nov 2002 23:01:13 +0000 (23:01 +0000)]
Major change: likelihood is modified in order to unbiased the duration
between 2 waves which is rounded (biased) to the nearest multiple of
stepm.
Some cleaning of the code. Many allocations were not freed correctly.
N. Brouard [Mon, 10 Jun 2002 13:12:01 +0000 (13:12 +0000)]
Many changes:
(a) We look at covariance between step probabilities by drawing
confidence interval ellipsoids of two step probabilities pij versus
pkl.
It is done by diagonalizing the inverse of the convariance matrix.
(b) In order to write to the gnuplot file or even to the html file
without using to much memory we are now reopening ficgp and fichtm
with an "append" option each time we need them into the main program.
It is better than keeping matrices in memory until the end.
N. Brouard [Fri, 29 Mar 2002 15:27:27 +0000 (15:27 +0000)]
Estepm added. We are calculating Life expectancy by interpolating the
survival function pijx linearly every estepm month. Estepm should be
higher than stepm. It is a new parameter (sorry).
N. Brouard [Wed, 13 Mar 2002 17:19:16 +0000 (17:19 +0000)]
CHANGE ncov to ncovcol
There was a confusion with older ncov parameter. In fact it was the
number of columns, between id and date of birth, which can be used for
covariates. In the program we use ncovmodel for the real number of
covariates. Version 0.8 !
Agnès Lièvre [Tue, 26 Feb 2002 17:11:54 +0000 (17:11 +0000)]
Cleaning of the main function: gnuplot and html file are now
subroutines; the bug in the forecasting is corrected; the moving
average statement moved to the last command line.
git://henry.ined.fr / .git / log